Should we do 1960 first or 2014?

Hank Aaron's last chance to take home an MMP.

Please do 2014 first. I got that one done and placed in the discussion thread. The HoM does not allow me time to do another month before the HoM ballot is due. - Brock

I like the idea of doing 2014 first as well. MVP is announced 11/13 and we'll be two weeks later.

1960 prelim

1) Ernie Banks - Dan R thinks playing SS is worth more than WAR or WS
2) Willie Mays - edges Banks in Dan R WAR but an average CF was worth a lot more than the average SS
3) Eddie Mathews - best bat
4) Roger Maris - good glove
5) Mickey Mantle - pick'em with Maris this year
6) Henry Aaron - not going to win an MMP
7) Ken Boyer - excellent glove
8) Ernie Broglio - completely ignored by Dan R's numbers due to relief appearances
9) Jim Bunning
10) Don Drysdale

11-14) Frank Robinson, Dick Groat, Woodie Held, Mike McCormick

Prelim Ballot - NL Only

1. Willie Mays, CF, San Francisco Giants
2. Eddie Mathews, 3B, Milwaukee Braves
3. Ernie Banks, SS, Chicago Cubs
This was an incredibly tight 3-way race as all 3 were separated by less than a point. Mays took the lead after I looked at secondary numbers. Basically, he won out based on his baserunning.

4. Hank Aaron, RF, Milwaukee Braves- I would have loved to see Aaron win an MMP but there was always somebody better in any given season
5. Frank Robinson, RF/1B, Cincinnati Reds- good defense, better offense, but not enough to catch the guys who played at premium glove positions
6. Ken Boyer, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals- I'm glad to see he's on the latest Veterans Committee ballot
7. Don Drysdale, P, Los Angeles Dodgers- the top pitcher in the Senior Circuit

8. Bob Friend, P, Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Ernie Broglio, P, St. Louis Cardinals
10. Larry Jackson, P, St. Louis Cardinals - I don't like the way a bunch of starting pitchers are bunched up at the bottom of the ballot but that will probably solve itself when I merge this list with the American League

Earlier this year, I read the Clemente biography, Clemente: The Passion and Grace of Baseball's Last Hero. It was pretty good in general but the author demonstrated an unfortunate lack of understanding for the game itself. He argued that Clemente should have won the NL MVP in 1960 as Clemente led the pennant-winning Pirates in RBI. He then suggested that Clemente was denied the award due to bigoted tendencies on behalf of the voters. He was especially piqued that Clemente finished behind 3 of his own teammates, all of whom were white.

However, the truth is just a little more complicated than that. The voters rightly understood that a .325/.371/.394 batting line from a shortstop and .282/.366/.445 from a third baseman were more valuable than a .314/.357/.458 season from a right fielder. The stat hadn't been invented yet but that works out to a 110 OPS+ for Groat at SS, 120 for Hoak at 3B and 121 for Clemente in RF. Groat and Hoak not only played the tougher defensive positions, they were also better at them. Groat was good for +16 fielding runs, Hoak for +7 and Clemente- despite his cannon arm- for +3. The writers got the right order for the position players and WAR agrees with them. Clemente was also beat by pitcher Vern Law (20-9, 3.08 era) and one could argue that he should have finished behind Bob Friend as well (18-12, 3.00 era).

If anything, 1960 shows that the writers should have abandoned the idea of voting for a player from the pennant-winning team as the best players all came from teams further back in the standings. But at least they didn't fall for the most-RBI canard and voted for the most deserving player on that pennant team.

Earlier this year, I read the Clemente biography, Clemente: The Passion and Grace of Baseball's Last Hero. It was pretty good in general but the author demonstrated an unfortunate lack of understanding for the game itself.

Drat. I've had that book on my shelf for a while now and was hoping to get to it this winter. Now I may put it off a while longer.

It's worth reading as the author does a pretty good job providing a portrait of Clemente the person. For example, I wasn't aware of Clemente's interest in chiropratic practices or of his involvement in his local neighborhood in Pittsburgh. But he's also part of the anti-Moneyball crowd, occasionally complaining about people underrating Clemente because of walks, and that can be grating at times.

The Clemente biography also goes into great detail about the fatal flight -- that relief plane had no business taking off New Year's Eve (or ever). But the baseball number-crunching left something to be desired.

Prelim Ballot- AL Only

1. Mickey Mantle, CF, New York Yankees: 1st in OPS+ and RC
2. Roger Maris, RF, New York Yankees: 2nd in OPS+ and RC, +19 in right field
huge gap
3. Jim Bunning, P, Detroit Tigers: 2nd in ERA+, top 5 in IP
4. Ted Williams, LF, Boston Red Sox: a partial season by Teddy Ballgame is still head and shoulders above most of the crowd
huge gap
5. Pedro Ramos, P, Washington Senators
6. Frank Lary, P, Detroit Tigers: not great years but Lary and Ramos were #1 and 2 in IP while hanging around (or just outside) the top ten in ERA+
7. Bill Skowron, 1B, New York Yankees: 5th in OPS+, +10 fielding at 1st
8. Pete Runnels, 2B, Boston Red Sox: a solid contributor in every facet of the game
9. Roy Sievers, 1B, Chicago White Sox
10. Ray Herbert, P, Kansas City Athletics

Prelim Ballot (Combined)

1. Willie Mays, CF, San Francisco Giants: edges out the two infielders with 160 OPS+, +14 defense and positive baserunning
2. Eddie Mathews, 3B, Milwaukee Braves: 166 OPS+ and 128 RC but only -5 defensively
3. Ernie Banks, SS, Chicago Cubs: 146 OPS+ and 113 RC to go with +9 defense
4. Mickey Mantle, CF, New York Yankees: 1st in AL OPS+ and RC
5. Rogers Maris, RF, New York Yankees: 2nd in AL OPS+ and RC, +19 in right field
6. Hank Aaron, RF, Milwaukee Braves: 156 OPS+ and 119 RC, +14 in right field
7. Frank Robinson, 1B/LF, Cincinnati Reds: 169 OPS+ but only 113 RC and +4 with the glove
8. Ken Boyer, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals: 143 OPS+ and +7 fielding
9. Don Drysdale, P, Los Angeles Dodgers: best pitcher in the NL
10. Jim Bunning, P, Detroit Tigers: best pitcher in the AL

11. Ted Williams, LF, Boston Red Sox
12. Bob Friend, P, Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Ernie Broglio, P, St. Louis Cardinals
14. Larry Jackson, P, St. Louis Cardinals
15. Vern Law, P, Pittsburgh Pirates
16. Mike McCormick, P, San Francisco Giants
17. Pedro Ramos, P, Washington Senators
18. Lindy McDaniel, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
19. Dick Groat, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
20. Frank Lary, P, Detroit Tigers

1960 - the last year before expansion came to the big leagues.

Crazy stuff happening in baseball - Ted Williams retires, Bill Mazeroski finishes off a wacky WS win for the Pirates.

Here's my ballot for the top 10 players, and I was surprised how some of these turned out:

1)Willie Mays - best combination of hitting, running and fielding - again!
2)Ernie Banks - a shade below his 1959 season but still pretty awesome! This shows just how tough it was to compete for supremacy when going up against guys like Mays, Mantle, Aaron, etc.
3)Hank Aaron - already getting into the groove that seemed to find him hitting 40 HRs, driving in 120 runs and playing great defense every season.
4)Roger Maris - best AL player, even ahead of Mantle. Just about matches Mick with the bat and is a vastly better fielder at this point.
5)Ed Mathews - still best LH hitter in baseball (full time), repeating from 1959.
6)Mickey Mantle - surprisingly not best player in AL for first time in several years. Will be back on top in 1961.
7)Frank Robinson - set personal highs in OBA and SLG this season, numbers that would get even better in years to come.
8)Ken Boyer - yet another stellar season both at bat and in the field. Interesting that we are looking at the seasons from the peak of his career during the time he is on the VC ballot - it's forcing me to take another look at just how good he was in his prime.
9)Ernie Broglio - my pick for top major league pitcher. 2.74 ERA in hitter-friendly STL park was very impressive.
10)Don Drysdale - 269 innings of 2.84 ERA pitching in Coliseum - that's an impressive feat

Close but no cigar - Jim Bunning (top AL pitcher), Ted Williams (rebounded to actually be best hitter in major leagues again on a per-plate appearance basis, but only played a little over half a season), Mike McCormick, Dick Groat, Ron Hansen, Bill Mazeroski.

Ted Williams hit 29 home runs in a little more than half a season worth of PAs, had .316 BA in year when the batting champion hit .320. His Slugging Average, OBA, and OPS+ was higher than Mantle, Mays, Maris, Aaron, Mathews, or Banks. Not too shabby of a swan song at the age of 42. No wonder the Yankees offered him $100K to come back and to only pinch hit in the 1961 season.

No wonder the Yankees offered him $100K to come back and to only pinch hit in the 1961 season.

It's a cool idea thinking of Teddy F. Ballgame on the 61 Yanks, but they would have been wasting their money. The 61 Yanks already had John Blanchard, who was about to have one of the epic PH/bench years in history.

From his BBR bullpen bio:
"The lefty-swinging Yankee loved Fenway Park. Of his first six hits at Fenway, five were homers. On July 21, 1961, the Yankees trailed the Boston Red Sox, 9-8, going into the top of the 9th when Blanchard, pinch-hitting for Clete Boyer, hit a grand slam off Boston right-hander Mike Fornieles giving the Bombers a 12-9 victory. The following day, the Yanks were again down, 9-8, when Blanchard, pinch-hitting again for Boyer, homered off Gene Conley to tie the score as the Yanks went on to win.

A couple of days later, against the Chicago White Sox, he homered in consecutive at-bats against Ray Herbert. His four home runs on four straight at-bats tied a major league record. Blanchard hit 4 pinch-hit home runs during the regular season in 1961 and one more during the World Series against the Cincinnati Reds. During that storied 1961 season he stroked 21 homers in only 243 at-bats and hit .305. Among the 1961 Yankees, only Mantle and Maris had more homers per at bat. He continued his clutch hitting in the World Series against the Reds with a two-run pinch homer in Game 3 and another two-run shot in the fifth and final game, a contest he started. As a result, Blanchard is arguably one of the best known third-string catchers in baseball history."

For the year Blanchard went .305/.382/.613/.995, 168 OPS+ over 275 PA in 93 games

But I digress from the principal discussion.
Back to 1960 when Maz is a King and Blanchard et.al. weep bitter tears post game seven

Blanchard in '61 did have a season all out of proportion to his career. The three guys who caught for the '61 Yankees hit 64 home runs. That's pretty deep at one premium position.

Oh, and as a little kid, I still have these images of Williams in '60. He was simply majestic.

1960 prelim.

1. Mickey Mantle. Only ends up over Mays because of a World Series bonus, and gets a World Series bonus because
he played like Barry Bonds for 7 games, raising his overall OPS for 1960 from 162 to 167 (if I did the math right).
2. Willie Mays
3. Eddie Mathews
4. Hank Aaron
5. Roger Maris
6. Don Drysdale
7. Ernie Broglio
8. Ernie Banks
9. Ken Boyer
10. Jim Bunning

11-16. Crandall, Friend, McCormick, L. Jackson, Law, Skowron

Ted Williams and Lindy McDaniel had impressive performances but not enough playing time.

Checked Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus and Win Shares- all show Mays as #1 for 1960. Also read "Baseball Stars of 1961" Goldbatt's "The Giants and the Dodgers", and Updike"s"Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu". The Kid was quite The Guy.

1960 Preliminary Ballot

1. Willie Mays - Combination of bat, glove and legs put him here for me. Best MLB player by a little and best MLB CF by some. His base running this year is again, amaysing. First to home on a single to right for the winning run. Second to home on a bunt single. Inside the park grand slam . Steals home and hits two HR in the same game. 12 triples for the year. !960 also marks the Giants first year playing at Candlestick.

#2 thru #7 are all pretty close

2. Hank Aaron - Another big bat year for Aaron and he starts stealing some bases. Rogers Hornsby claims Aaron is the player most likely to hit ,400.
3. Ernie Banks - Hit better on the road than at home this year. His glove is still good at shortstop.
4. Eddie Mathews - Aaron overshadowed by Mays and Mathews overshadowed by Aaron? He can hit but his fielding isn't very good.
5. Frank Robinson -Famously dukes it out with Mathews on the field and as the leagues best hitter.
6. Roger Maris- Slightly better than Mantle due to much better fielding.
7. Mickey Mantle - Quite the WS and Game 7. Wow.
8. Ken Boyer - Great glove and one of the leagues best hitters.Good power year with 32 home runs. Underrated.
9. Don Drysdale - Especially good year considering his home park.
10. Ernie Broglio - Career year. Wasn't even slotted for the regular rotation at the start of the season.

Then Vada Pinson, Jim Bunning, Bob Friend, Dick Groat and Ted Williams.

1960 World Series Stats

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Dick Groat  7  28  3  6  2  0  0  2  0  1  .214  .214  .286  .500  0  0  2
Don Hoak  7  23  3  5  2  0  0  3  4  1  .217  .333  .304  .638  0  1  1  
Bill Mazeroski  7  25  4  8  2  0  2  5  0  3  .320  .320  .640  .960  0  0  0

Tony Kubek  7  30  6  10  1  0  0  3  2  2  .333  .394  .367  .761  0  1  3
Mickey Mantle  7  25  8  10  1  0  3  11  8  9  .400  .545  .800  1.345  0  1  0
Roger Maris  7  30  6  8  1  0  2  2  2  4  .267  .313  .500  .813  0  0  1

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP  
Bob Friend  3  2  13.50  0  2  0  0  6.0  13  10  9  3  7  2.667
Vern Law  3  3  3.44  2  0  0  0  18.1  22  7  7  3  8  1.364

Whitey Ford  2  2  0.00  2  0  0  2  18.0  11  0  0  2  8  0.722

Ford was basically average during the season but had a terrific World Series. Mazeroski was terrific. Mantle breaks his regular season tie with Maris on my ballot.

I use world series championship probability added.
Hal Smith wins!!

Vern Law hit pretty well too - 930 OPS. High scoring World Series so his ERA looks pretty impressive.

NL All Stars

C Del Crandall
1B Frank Robinson
2B Bill Mazeroski
3B Eddie Mathews
SS Ernie Banks
OF Hank Aaron
OF Willie Mays
OF Richie Ashburn
SP Don Drysdale
SP Ernie Broglio
SP Bob Friend
SP Larry Jackson
RP Lindy McDaniel

AL All Stars
C Earl Battey
1B Roy Sievers
2B Pete Runnels
3B Clete Boyer
SS Woodie Held
OF Roger Maris
OF Mickey Mantle
OF Ted Williams
SP Jim Bunning
SP Ray Herbert
SP Frank Lary
SP Bill Monbouquette
RP Dave Sisler

1960 Preliminary

Batters: start with RAA (using value added runs), adjust for park, position and defense (using DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

Pitchers: Calculate RAA using a pitchers FIP and calculate RAA using a pitcher's value added runs.

Calculate RAA, using a blend of RA9 and FIP from above, adjust for quality of opposition, role and park. Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement). Add Hitter WAR for overall WARR.

1. Hank Aaron 8.06 WARR
2. Roger Maris 7.45 WARR
3. Eddie Mathews 7.25 WARR
4. Ken Boyer 7.10 WARR
5. Frank Robinson 6.92 WARR
6. Willie Mays 6.83 WARR
7. Ernie Banks 6.30 WARR
8. Don Drysdale 6.21 WARR
9. Mickey Mantle 5.50 WARR
10. Ernie Broglio 5.47 WARR

Rest of the top 20
Jim Bunning
Del Crandall
Lindy McDaniel
Bob Friend
Larry Jackson
Roy Sievers
Jim Gilliam
Don Hoak
Woodie Held
Ray Herbert

1960 prelim.

method: i combine 6 "uber-stat" systems to rate the players.
no postseason consideration and 10% catcher bonus.

1 MAYS, WILLIE 9842
2 MATHEWS, EDDIE 9324
3 AARON, HANK 8921
4 MANTLE, MICKEY 8749
5 MARIS, ROGER 8286
6 BANKS, ERNIE 8200
7 BOYER, KEN 7921
8 DRYSDALE, DON 7751
9 BROGLIO, ERNIE 6917
10 BUNNING, JIM 6639

11 ROBINSON, FRANK 6629
12 FRIEND, BOB 6427
13 JACKSON, LARRY 6201
14 MCDANIEL, LINDY 6147
15 GROAT, DICK 6082

Mathews was tops in the 2 Win Shares systems I use.
Mays was tops in 3 of the 4 WAR(P) systems I use.
Drysdale was tops in the other WAR system I use.

I would have loved to see Aaron win an MMP but there was always somebody better in any given season

It looks like that would be Willie Mays seven times and Mantle three times. His teammate Mathews is next on the list with 10 ballot appearances and no MMP. Catchers Berra and Carter after that with 9.

There was an even larger than usual disparity between the top NL & top AL players in WAR this season
Prelim ballot, no postseason bonus but some small bonus for playing on a Pennant contender

1. Mays
2. Aaron
3. Mathews
4. Banks
5. Maris
6. Mantle
7. Boyer
8. F Robinson
9. Groat
10.Friend

Top NL pitchers: Friend, Broglio, Drysdale
Top AL pitchers: Bunning, Herbert, Lary. Hard to believe my top AL pitchers went 11-14, 14-15, & 15-15, respectively. What an odd year for AL pitchers

Also, surprised by the low WAR totals of so many AL players, especially my favorite overlooked Golden Era ballot HOF candidate Minnie Miñoso at 2.8

Prelim, 1960 style. The usual blend of WAR systems.No adjustments. This year showed unusual fluctuations so I expect to see the final ballot change a bit from this.

1-Mays
2-Matthews
3-Aaron
4-Banks
5-Maris
6-mantle
7-Boyer
8-Bunning
9-Friend
10-Drysdale

Best of the rest in order, Broglio, Law, McCormick, Groat, Hoak