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1966 MMP Ballot

1) Juan Marichal - Koufax has the edge in pure pitching but Marichal makes up the difference at the plate.
2) Frank Robinson - Initially he looked the best but league strength and a lowered postseason bonus moves him just behind Marichal. The top 3 are very close and I expect to see #1 votes for all three of them.
3) Sandy Koufax - Best pitcher in baseball, still couldn't hit. Tiny postseason bonus doesn't change the outcome.
4) Ron Santo - 3rd straight year in my top 4
5) Jim Bunning - very similar to his 1965
6) Joe Torre - a small catcher's bonus is enough to get him into the top 10
7) Dick Allen
8) Dick McAuliffe - A different SS in the top 10 every year. Wins the tiebreaker versus Mays because Mays' manager wasn't dumb enough to platoon him
9) Willie Mays - Dan R's WAR sees a bat that is below Robinson, Santo, Torre, Allen, Clemente, Killebrew, Kaline and Stargell. His defense isn't quite as good as past seasons either.
10) Roberto Clemente

11-15) Harmon Killebrew, Jim Fregosi, Earl Wilson, Jim Maloney, Bob Gibson
16-20) Al Kaline, Jim Lefebvre, Gary Peters, Gene Alley, Henry Aaron

edited to correct spelling

Includes a 2% demerit for AL players - no bonus for postseason play.

1) Frank Robinson: Best major league player, IMO. His triple crown doesn't even factor into his placement here.

2) Sandy Koufax: Clearly the stud among the pitchers that season, even with his crappy hitting.

3) Willie Mays: Noses out Allen as the best position player in the NL - best major league center fielder for the umpteenth time, too.

4) Dick Allen: Best ML third baseman.

5) Juan Marichal: Could have been the Cy Young winner in almost any other year.

6) Willie McCovey: Best ML first baseman.

7) Harmon Killebrew: Best AL third baseman.

8) Jim Bunning: "Only" third-best pitcher in the NL, but still better than any AL hurler.

9) Al Kaline: Best AL center fielder.

10) Joe Torre: Best ML catcher.

A very difficult election both at the top and at the bottom of the ballot. I have made changes from my prelim as noted.

1. F. Robinson. No change from the prelim here, though F. Robby ranks only #6 by BBR WAR. But the objective of the baseball season is to become world champs, which the O's did with newcomer F. Robby as their clear team MVP. The O's had finished 3rd in 1965, 8 games behind the Twins and 1 behind the Chisox, despite having the best ERA in the AL. They scored only the 6th most runs in the AL in 1965, however. In '66 the pitching fell off from a league best 2.98 to 4th best at 3.32. The starting pitchers were arguably worse at every spot in the rotation.

Pappas and Barber co-#1 with 221 IP in 1965; Pappas gone to Cincy for F. Robby; Barber developed a sore arm
Palmer (3.48 in 208 IP) replaced Pappas (2.61 in 221 IP)
Bunker dropped from 221 IP and 2.69 in '65 to 133 IP in '66 at 2.30
McNally #3 in '65 but 2.85 in 199 IP; #1 in '66 3.17 in 213 IP
Eddie Watt (9-7, 3.82, 13GS) replaced Robin Roberts (5-7, 3.37 in 15 GS)
John Miller slumped to 5-8, 4.72 from 6-4, 3.19 in '65

But scoring went from 6th to 1st in the league--from 641 to 755 runs. Veteran Luis Aparicio improved somewhat over '65. Andy Etchebarren hit .221 but added some power versus Dick Brown and John Orsino (both in the .230s) the year before. Davey Johnson was a slight upgrade from Jerry Adair. B. Robby was the same hitter though his RBI went from 80 to 100, which was simple opportunity. Curt Blefary and Russ Snyder were essentially the same players in the OF. F. Robby provided a huge lift over platoonee Jackie Brandt (8-24-.243) in the OF. It is true that two young holdovers (Boog Powell, Paul Blair) also improved significantly.

Bottom line: Won the pennant with a significantly weaker pitching staff, and F. Robby represented darn near all of their improvement on offense. And just for punctuation, he won the Triple Crown with better numbers across the board (except batting avg.) than Yaz the following year.

2. Sandy Koufax. Up from #3. I mention all of this (above) because it seems that a pretty good argument has to be made as to why Koufax was not #1. I mean, here's a guy whose team was #8 out of 10 in the NL in runs scored. And with Drysdale slumping, Koufax had to carry this team and he did, though a couple young pitchers helped (Osteen was essentially the same pitcher as in '65 while Don Sutton joined the rotation in place of Johnny Podres and was an upgrade). WAR favors Koufax 9.9 to 8.3 over F. Robinson though WS has it 41-35 for Frank. For me it comes down I guess to the fact that the O's won the WS in dramatic fashion. I know this is not a good or even a logical argument or a particularly relevant factoid for making the selection, but there it is. The O's were a team of destiny and the Dodgers were not.

3. Willie Mays, down from #2. Fell off 30 pts OBA and almost 100 pts SA versus 1965, when I had him ahead of Koufax.

4. Juan Marichal, up from #7.

5. Dick Allen, stays at #5. Led NL (2nd in ML) in OP, best of a glut of pretty good hitters below MVP level.

6. Brooks Robinson, stays at #6. Since I cannot distinguish a bunch of hitters in and around this part of the ballot, the guy with the glove sneaks in, noting of course that he drove in 100 runs and K'd just 36 times.

7. Ron Santo, up from #17. #2 in NL in hitting-fielding WAR behind Mays. I hate that his team finished 10th, of course.

8. Roberto Clemente, down from #4. I tried and tried to justify a higher rating for the NL MVP, but his OPS of 896 pales next to Allen, McCovey, Stargell, Santo and others.

9. Hank Aaron, stays at #9. About the same hitter as Clemente with 895 OP, though with more long ball power and not as much defense.

10. Harmon Killebrew, down from #8. OPS 929. Ahead of Boog Powell by a nose. Powell dropped out of my top 10 (from #10) in favor of Santo.

Powell and McCovey were the others who got serious consideration for the 9 and 10 spots.

I used the 7 systems I usually use [2 of them related to Win Shares and the other 5 are WAR/WARP systems). I was going to apply a slight league discount to the AL but ended up changing my mind. I also have a standard 10% catcher bonus but someone pointed out how Torre also played elsewhere this year so I adjusted it down to a 7.6% catcher bonus (based on games at catcher as percent of total). Oh, and I have no postseason credit. So here goes nothing:

1- Sandy Koufax 9611
2- Frank Robinson 9351
3- Juan Marichal 9069
4- Willie Mays 8562
5- Ron Santo 8104
6- Jim Bunning 8056 [already the 3rd pitcher, all from the NL]
7- Dick Allen 7980
8- Joe Torre 7527
9- Roberto Clemente 7081
10-Willie McCovey 6780 [very narrowly making my ballot]

11-Harmon Killebrew 6659
12-Bob Gibson 6650
13-Earl Wilson 6463
14-Hank Aaron 6434
15-Al Kaline 6349
16-Felipe Alou 6284
17-Dick McAuliffe 6225 [i didn't give him any bonus for poor management regarding his early platoon]
18-Tommie Agee 6194
19-Tony Oliva 5877
20-Jim Maloney 5840

I had been considering a slight discount for the AL... but considering how poorly they did on my ballot without the discount I decided not to drop them further.

1966 Ballot

1. Frank Robinson, RF, Baltimore Orioles- 198 OPS+, 146 runs created
2. Sandy Koufax, P, Los Angeles Dodgers- 190 ERA+, 323 innings
3. Dick Allen, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies- 181 OPS+, 131 RC
4. Juan Marichal, P, San Francisco Giants- 167 ERA+, 307 IP
5. Ron Santo, 3B, Chicago Cubs- 161 OPS+, 127 RC
6. Joe Torre, C, Atlanta Braves- 156 OPS+, 111 RC
7. Jim Bunning, P, Philadelphia Phillies- 148 ERA+, 314 IP
8. Willie Mays, CF, San Francisco Giants- 149 OPS+, 113 RC
9. Harmon Killebrew, 3B, Minnesota Twins- 157 OPS+, 122 RC
10. Roberto Clemente, RF, Pittsburgh Pirates- 146 OPS+, 119 RC

11. Willie McCovey
12. Bob Gibson
13. Al Kaline
14. Jim Kaat
15. Dick McAuliffe

1 Sandy Koufax (always thought winshares undersold pitchers, oversold league average catchers... needs a baseline higher than zero) Lowest k/9 since 1958... How did he pitch with that elbow?

2 Juan Marichal (didn't walk anyone)
3 Frank Robinson
4 Willie Mays (an off year)
5 Jim Bunning (could be as tremendous a pitcher as he could be vile as a Politico)
6 Ron Santo
7 Dick Allen (Santo/Allen- I could flip Santo and Allen if I regressed their Dee...)
8 Roberto Clemente
9 Hank Aaron
10 Bob Gibson

11- 20 Mike Cuellar, Joe Torre, Dick McAuliffe, Jim Maloney, Willie McCovey, Tony Oliva, Felipe Alou, Jim Ray Hart, Harmon Killebrew, Jim Fregosi

I don't like having 9/10 being NLers, the NL was the better league back then, but still... aside from F.Robbie no one seems to ave had an MVP caliber year? Killebrew/Oliva?

Balloting will close at 4pm EDT on 2 November 2011.

This is incorrect. I'll close balloting on Tuesday 11/1. I'll be nowhere near a laptop on 11/2.

1996 MMP BALLOT

1. FRANK ROBINSON – Was lucky to win the Triple Crown, as 9 of the top 10 AVGs were in the NL and only Robby (.316) and Tony Oliva (.307) hit above .288 in the AL. That aside, a 198 OPS+ is pretty tough to beat. Led all in HRs, led AL by 10, 2rd in AL in 2B, led MLB in Total Bases, Times on Base, SLG, OPS, OPS+, and Runs (tie). It would take a near-perfect season by an SP to beat him, and I didn’t quite see that.
2. SANDY KOUFAX – Oh, a 190 ERA+ in the most IP in MLB, most Ks in MLB by 65, most CG, GS, ShO, PWins, WAR…. And 9 hits in 118 AB, and 4 R (1 ER) in 6 IP. The hitting is a wart, but still a wonderful farewell for “The Left Arm of God.”
3. JUAN MARICHAL – 2nd in MLB ERA+ and 3rd in MLB IP, plus he hit .250 with 15 RBI. That gets him close to Koufax in spite of the ERA+ differential, but it’s not quite enough.
4. RICHIE ALLEN – Monster offensive year, with a 181 OPS+ that easily marks him as baseball’s second-best hitter in 1966 at age 24. Would have been No. 2, but not helping a whole lot in the field as a 3B-LF, to be fair – plus he missed 21 games.
5. RON SANTO – Stargell, McCovey, Killebrew, Kaline, Mays – he hit like they did, and played a steady, durable 3B (Ron played in 154+ games in 11 straight seasons). Really no flaw here, and I can see him ahead of Allen.
6. WILLIE MAYS – His 149 OPS+ is his worst since 1956 (!), but he can still field at this point in CF and he was durable enough.
7. JIM BUNNING – 2nd in IP, 5th in ERA+, 2nd in Ks, etc. Raw numbers that could have won a Cy if Koufax and Marichal didn’t spoil that party. We’ll see fewer and fewer cases of 3 SPs from one league on a top 10 ballot, I suspect.
8. JOE TORRE – 114 reasonable G at C (plus 1B duty), and a top 10 MLB hitter - yes please.
9. AL KALINE – Barely get here because he missed 20 games, but a 156 OPS+ in CF still means a lot.
10. HARMON KILLEBREW – 162 G, 157 OPS+, 107 G at 3B at age 30…..

re Koufax, "4 R (1 ER) in 6 IP" in World Series, so obviously not a game-changer there.

My 1966 MMP balot (see discussion thread for reasoning):

1. Frank Robinson
2. Sandy Koufax
3. Willie Mays
4. Dick Allen
5. Ron Santo
6. Juan Marichal
7. Roberto Clemente
8. Hank Aaron
9. Harmon Killebrew
10. Willie McCovey

Crazy busy day tomorrow so I need to vote now.

1. Frank Robinson - hitter vs. pitcher and league strength are both issue. I'm far from sure of this.
2. Juan Marichal - because pitcher batting matters, too.
3. Sandy Koufax.
4. Dick Allen - 2nd best hitter in the majors.
5. Willie Mays - still Mays.
6. Jim Bunning - I'm on my way to putting 5 NL pitchers in the top 10. The pitchers were in charge.
7. Ron Santo - defense gets him here.
8. Willie McCovey - almost as good a hitter as Allen.
9. Jim Maloney
10. Bob Gibson
11. Joe Torre
12. Earl Wilson - the 1960's answer to Wes Ferrell.

I'm considering primarily rWAR, but I've modified it by replacing TZ with AFR, an average of DRA and SFR. I've also applied DanR’s standard deviation adjustment to account for the uneven effects of expansion. Lastly I've added a small postseason bonus.
This year, I think, was my toughest ballot. For the first time, I’ve almost completely re-ordered the top 5 from the prelim ballot (though I didn’t move anyone new into the top 5, it was still a fairly major overhaul).

1. Willie Mays. Mays’ tremendous defensive year may be a partial mirage, but he was also very good in the clutch (a fact not reflected by any WAR-based uberstat). Overall, that’s enough to put Mays on top by a hair. See the discussion thread for a more detailed discussion of my placement of Mays vs. Frank Robinson.
2. Sandy Koufax. Ultimately I decided that I had the pitchers exactly switched the first time around. Koufax eventually won out over Marichal because I felt that BR’s park factor of 1.03 for Candlestick gave Marichal an unwarranted boost. Without this boost, even Koufax’s mediocre postseason doesn’t drop him below Marichal.
3. Juan Marichal. See Sandy Koufax.
4. Frank Robinson. 2-4 are extremely close (actually 1-5 are extremely close, but within that grouping 2-4 is almost impossible to distinguish). Robinson only made it into Koufax and Marichal’s tier with the help of a postseason bonus; though I believe Robinson fully deserves credit for an outstanding World Series, in a tie I’ll go with the regular-season performers, Koufax and Marichal.
5. Jim Bunning. See my pitcher discussion in the discussion thread.
6. Ron Santo. Between Allen’s bat and Santo’s glove, I’ll easily take Santo’s glove, with a 20-run advantage in AFR.
7. Roberto Clemente.
8. Joe Torre. Comes very close to Clemente, as AFR gave him a +12 rating for the year. This is likely too high, though the gap between Torre and Maloney is large enough that some regression won’t close it.
9. Jim Maloney. Gets a boost from his hitting (0.3 WAR), allowing him to make the ballot.
10. Felipe Alou. Just a bit ahead of Dick Allen and Hank Aaron.

Reminder - voting closes today at 4:00 EDT. I won't be able to tally ballots after 5:00 CDT.

1966 Final MMP Ballot. Orioles reap the benefits of picking up the Reds unwanted star. The components to ranking include WAR, WARP, WS, OPS+/ERA+, even a sprinkle of WPA. My junk stats and observations are back.

1. Frank Robinson - Led AL in BA by .009, HR by 10, RBI by 12, TB by 55. That is tough to do.
2. Sandy Koufax - A Triple Crown winner himself. Oh if only the left arm had held up.
3. Juan Marichal - Close to Koufax, nicked for pitching less and the relatively bad stretch in mid-August.
4. Willie Mays - Was he starting to show his age by September (split line of .250/.360/.427)? Lot of games piling up on this 35 year old body.
5. Ron Santo - Hit .333 at home, .289 on the road. Friendly confines indeed.
6. Dick Allen - First of many extended trials at LF. Higher FLD % at 3B than LF - yikes. Serious hitter though with 20 games missed this year.
7. Jim Bunning - 19-14 covered up a 4th in ERA+ with plenty of innings. Led league in HBP.
8. Roberto Clemente - 200+ hits, career highs in HR, RBI, R. Plus the usual stellar defense.
9. Joe Torre - Led NL in Catcher CS%. Great year in the Astrodome (.429/.487/.721).
10. Willie McCovey - Late and Clutch stats (.364/.452/.852) included 11 HRs in 104 PA.

11. Harmon Killebrew
12. Bob Gibson
13. Earl Wilson
14. Felipe Alou
15. Hank Aaron

bjhanke asked us to transfer his ballot from the discussion thread so here it is:

This is Brock Hanke’s preliminary ballot. As you might imagine, my baseball time, these last three weeks, was unexpectedly spent on the Cardinals. I may get comments and perhaps even changes, done by tomorrow night, but that’s the deadline, since I sleep during the day. So if the deadline comes and I have nothing else, please transfer this to the final ballot.

1. Frank Robinson
2. Sandy Koufax
3. Willie Mays
4. Dick Allen
5. Juan Marichal
6. Jim Bunning
7. Ron Santo
8. Joe Torre
9. Roberto Clemente
10. Tommie Agee

Yardape also posted a prelim so hopefully we'll see a final ballot from him today.

No prelim, no ballot yet

Nate the Neptunian
Esteban Rivera
Dan R
ronw
Rick A
fra paulo

Here's my ballot. No changes from my prelim.

1. Juan Marichal
2. Sandy Koufax
3. Frank Robinson
4. Jim Bunning
5. Willie Mays
6. Dick/Richie Allen
7. Ron Santo
8. Joe Torre
9. Bob Gibson
10. Roberto Clemente

The top three were very close. Marichal's hitting moved him above Koufax, and neither Koufax nor Robinson got enough of a postseason bump to catch him. From Bunning to Gibson is pretty tightly packed, then Clemente gets on as the best corner outfielder in baseball.

Election is closed

Sorry, thought the election deadline was tomorrow night.
I will post my 1966 Ballot here, just for the record, but I understand that you can't count it.

1. Sandy Koufax
2. Frank Robinson
3. Willie Mays
4. Juan Marichal
5. Dick Allen
6. Jim Bunning
7. Joe Torre
8. Willie McCovey
9. Ron Santo
10. Al Kaline

Chris (Fluit) -

Thanks SO much for moving my ballot over. I had completely missed comment #8 and thought I had another day. Between Cardinal baseball and the Goth scene (for which Halloween is the primary holiday in the year, and the biggest club party started at 8pm Monday night), I've been out of my house or glued to the TV or asleep for pretty much the last 3 weeks. I made a few posts to other threads (mostly about TLR), but that was it for time. Transferring my ballot from the discussion thread was something I needed and didn't know I needed until just now, when I was about to start looking it over for any final changes.

I owe you one. If you ever need it, just remind me.

- Brock Hanke

You're welcome.

Any chance we can count Rick A's ballot for posterity? I have been a deadline stickler over the years, but I thought I saw mixed messages about this one - and maybe the most reliable posters get a little slack in that case?

Or did it count anyway?

However it plays out, no further comments from this precinct. Just a query, and I'll accept whatever the decision.....

I agree with Howie, since the deadline was incorrectly posted above.

John and Howie,

Thanks for the support. This would be the first election that I would have missed, not counting the BBWAA mock HOF votes.

However, I am also a deadline stickler. When Joe missed the election deadline a few years ago, I was against counting his ballot even though I didn't say anything at the time. How can we make an exception for me when the founder of the HOM project didn't get one?


In short, it was my job to know when the deadline was, but due to a busy week I missed it.

That is my fault and my ballot should not be counted.