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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Friday, January 27, 2012Most Meritorious Player : 1969 DiscussionMost Meritorious Player: 1969 Discussion Remember to put 12 names on your ballot. Expanded postseason means more opportunity for postseason credit. Voting will end on February 22nd 2012.
Player Win BB-ref
Shares WAR
Rico Petrocelli 36.1 9.3
Reggie Jackson 39.9 9.7
Willie McCovey 39.3 8.9
Henry Aaron 37.2 8.3
Frank Robinson 31.8 7.4
Jim Wynn 36.1 8.1
Harmon Killebrew 33.8 6.1
Bobby Bonds 31.0 6.5
Pete Rose 36.8 6.9
Rusty Staub 26.4 5.9
Leo Cardenas 23.7 4.6
Jim Fregosi 25.8 5.2
Cleon Jones 30.0 7.6
Frank Howard 33.5 6.3
Sal Bando 35.3 8.9
Roberto Clemente 27.7 7.4
Johnny Bench 29.9 6.1
Paul Blair 27.0 6.2
Tony Perez 30.4 5.6
Luis Aparicio 19.7 3.9
Willie Stargell 27.0 5.2
Roy White 21.7 3.8
Carl Yastrzemski 25.4 4.6
Tommie Agee 28.1 5.6
Joe Morgan 24.0 4.2
Ron Santo 25.6 6.1
Rod Carew 21.5 5.1
Ken McMullen 23.6 6.2
Boog Powell 26.6 5.2
Bob Gibson 31.3 11.0
Larry Dierker 25.6 9.0
Denny McLain 28.6 7.5
Juan Marichal 28.9 8.5
Steve Carlton 23.2 7.2
Bill Hands 28.3 8.8
Phil Niekro 27.7 6.6
Tom Seaver 31.7 7.6
Claude Osteen 24.7 6.2
Andy Messersmith 21.5 5.1
Bill Singer 26.9 7.3
Jim Perry 20.6 5.3
Tommy John 17.6 5.2
Sam McDowell 21.2 6.3
Ferguson Jenkins 24.7 7.6
Mel Stottlemyre 25.3 5.3
Gaylord Perry 26.5 7.8
Jerry Koosman 26.0 6.7
Mike Cuellar 24.6 4.3
Ron Perranoski 19.4 4.0
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1. DL from MN Posted: January 27, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4047717)1) Reggie Jackson
2) Willie McCovey
3) Hank Aaron
4) Rico Petrocelli
5) Jim Wynn
6) Pete Rose
7) Tom Seaver
8) Bob Gibson
9) Sal Bando
10) Harmon Killebrew
Prelim (no post-season bonuses and (only) a 1% demerit for AL players):
1) Reggie Jackson
2) Willie McCovey
3) Hank Aaron
4) Rico Petrocelli
5) Jim Wynn
6) Pete Rose
7) Tom Seaver
8) Bob Gibson
8) Sal Bando
10) Harmon Killebrew
11) Frank Howard
12) Frank Robinson
Rk Player WAR ERA+ WPA WHIP GF GS IP Age Tm Lg G W L SV ERA OPS1 Ron Perranoski 4.0 176 4.181 1.145 52 0 119.2 33 MIN AL 75 9 10 31 2.11 .554
2 Ken Tatum 3.9 256 4.641 1.042 33 0 86.1 25 CAL AL 45 7 2 22 1.36 .495
3 Tug McGraw 2.7 163 5.632 1.355 26 4 100.1 24 NYM NL 42 9 3 12 2.24 .678
4 Sparky Lyle 2.6 152 0.573 1.354 44 0 102.2 24 BOS AL 71 8 3 17 2.54 .680
5 Vicente Romo 2.2 124 2.494 1.300 27 11 135.1 26 TOT AL 55 8 10 11 3.13 .703
6 Moe Drabowsky 2.1 125 0.175 1.000 37 0 98.0 33 KCR AL 52 11 9 11 2.94 .595
7 Diego Segui 2.0 109 -1.192 1.321 38 8 142.1 31 SEP AL 66 12 6 12 3.35 .688
8 Hoyt Wilhelm 1.9 160 0.761 0.923 42 0 78.0 46 TOT ML 52 7 7 14 2.19 .517
9 Wilbur Wood 1.7 129 -1.621 1.279 50 0 119.2 27 CHW AL 76 10 11 15 3.01 .689
10 Dick Hall 1.6 188 2.287 0.883 17 0 65.2 38 BAL AL 39 5 2 6 1.92 .535
11 Cecil Upshaw 1.6 126 1.450 1.244 47 0 105.1 26 ATL NL 62 6 4 27 2.91 .647
12 Jim Brewer 1.5 131 -0.268 1.268 43 0 88.1 31 LAD NL 59 7 6 20 2.55 .628
13 Jim Roland 1.5 158 1.490 1.216 8 3 86.1 26 OAK AL 39 5 1 1 2.19 .555
14 Eddie Watt 1.5 219 1.440 1.056 41 0 71.0 28 BAL AL 56 5 2 16 1.65 .539
15 Darold Knowles 1.5 155 0.491 1.233 40 0 84.1 27 WSA AL 53 9 2 13 2.24 .670
16 Ron Taylor 1.5 134 1.015 1.118 44 0 76.0 31 NYM NL 59 9 4 13 2.72 .642
17 Phil Regan 1.5 109 0.764 1.384 49 0 112.0 32 CHC NL 71 12 6 17 3.70 .716
1) Rico Petrocelli
2) Reggie Jackson
3) Bob Gibson - another impressive season
4) Willie McCovey
5) Henry Aaron
6) Frank Robinson
7) Larry Dierker
8) Jim Wynn
9) Denny McLain
10) Harmon Killebrew - sorry Killer, you're not going to repeat here
11) Bobby Bonds
12) Juan Marichal
13-15) Pete Rose, Rusty Staub, Leo Cardenas
16-21) Steve Carlton, Jim Fregosi, Cleon Jones, Bill Hands, Frank Howard, Sal Bando
Players in the consideration set - postseason stats
Harmon Killebrew - ALCS 12PA, 1H, 1 2B, 2R, 4BB, 2K
Leo Cardenas - ALCS 13PA, 2H, 1 3B, 0R, 0BB, 7K
Jim Perry - ALCS 1G, 8.0IP, 6H, 3ER, 3BB, 3K; 0 for 3 at the plate; Perranoski blew the save and they left him in to blow the game
Phil Niekro - NLCS 1G, 8.0IP, 9H, 4ER, 4BB, 4K; 0 for 3 at the plate
Henry Aaron - NLCS 14PA, 3R, 5H, 2 2B, 3HR, 0BB, 1K, 1.500 OPS
Tom Seaver - NLCS 1G, 7.0IP, 8H, 5ER, 3BB, 2K; 0 for 3 at the plate
WS 2G, 15.0IP, 12H, 5ER, 3BB, 9K; 0 for 4
Cleon Jones - NLCS 15PA, 6H, 2 2B, 1HR, 1BB, 2K, 1.252 OPS
WS 19PA, 2R, 3H, 1 2B, 0BB, 1K
Frank Robinson - ALCS 15PA, 1R, 4H, 2 2B, 1HR, 3BB, 3K, 1.217 OPS
WS 20PA, 2R, 3H, 1HR, 4BB, 3K, .725 OPS was highest of any position player on the Orioles
Paul Blair - ALCS 17PA, 1R, 6H, 2 2B, 1HR, 2BB, 2K, 1.204 OPS
WS 22PA, 1R, 2H, 2BB, 5K
John Murphy - how do you find any separation between these two players in 1969? Here's how Dan R's data sees them
Player BWAA2 BRWAA2 FWAA2 WARP2
HAaron 6.1 -0.2 0.9 7.6
Robinson 5.8 0.2 0.8 7.5
To me that says the separation is all league strength.
I'll post NL figures and also some results for pitchers another time.
1. Rico Petrocelli, SS, Boston Red Sox (167 OPS+, +16 fielding runs)
2. Willie McCovey, 1B, San Francisco Giants (209 OPS+!)
3. Reggie Jackson, RF, Oakland Athletics (189 OPS+, 144 runs created)
4. Bob Gibson, P, St. Louis Cardinals (164 ERA+, 314 innings and one of the best-hitting pitchers)
5. Harmon Killebrew, 1B/3B, Minnesota Twins (more time at third would have bumped him ahead of Gibson)
6. Hank Aaron, RF, Atlanta Braves (177 OPS+, 128 runs created)
7. Juan Marichal, P, San Francisco Giants (168 ERA+, 299 innings)
8. Frank Robinson, RF, Baltimore Orioles (165 OPS+, 126 runs created)
9. Bill Hands, P, Chicago Cubs (162 ERA+, 300 innings)
10. Pete Rose, RF, Cincinnati Reds (158 OPS+, 138 runs created- playing time and defensive value in CF push him ahead of Howard)
11. Frank Howard, LF, Washintgon Senators (178 OPS+, 132 runs created)
12. Tom Seaver, P, New York Mets (165 ERA+, 273 innings)
13. Larry Dierker
14. Roberto Clemente
15. Jimmy Wynn
16. Gaylord Perry
17. Rusty Staub
18. Denny McLain (the top pitcher in the AL)
19. Boog Powell
20. Sal Bando
1. McCovey
2. Reggie--close enough between the top 2
3. Killebrew--good year for sluggers
4. F. Robinson
5. Seaver--thought he'd be higher
6. Aaron--can't believe he's still hangin' around
7. Bando
8. Petrocelli
9. Rose
10. Powell
11. F.Howard
12. Gibson
13. Santo
14. Wynn
15. McLain
16. Agee
17. Marichal
18. C. Jones
19. Hands
20. Oliva
21. Perez
22. B. Williams
23. Dierker
24. Yaz
25. Clemente, Bonds or Carlton
20.
Johnny Bench just misses the .850 cut-off, and his wOBA was .346
Given Bando's remarkable wOBA, I'm curious why he isn't ranked a bit higher on the prelims we've had so far. I have a fielding system I might take a look at to see how well he does with the glove.
Reggie and Bando played in the same park and Reggie had the better slash line .275/.405/.610 to Bando's .281/.400/.484. Reggie has 12HBP to Bando's 11. How does he gain 60 points of WOBA?
Reggie also has a 13/5 SB line to Bando's 1/4.
Reggie has 20 IBBs to Bando's 5. Net +15 to Bando. Bando has 20 more hits. Bando also has 68 fewer PAs. So 35 more times on base in 68 fewer PAs.
ALSO CORRECTION: Bando's wOBA is .454. I forgot to subtract his IBB.
edit: Dan R has Bando at 5-6 runs below average fielding. BBRef has Bando at +3 runs. Not much to see there.
Player PWAR+BWAR+FWAR
Bob Gibson 11.0+0.8-0.1 = 11.7
Larry Dierker 9.0-0.4-0.2=8.4
Denny McLain 7.5-0.2-0.2=7.1
Juan Marichal 8.5-0.2-0.2=8.1
Steve Carlton 7.2+0.3-0.1=7.4
Bill Hands 8.8-0.4-0.2=8.2
Phil Niekro 6.6+0.3-0.1=6.9
Tom Seaver 7.6+0.2-0.2=7.6
1. Willie McCovey
2. Reggie Jackson
3. Bob Gibson
4. Rico Petrocelli
5. Hank Aaron
6. Jimmy Wynn
7. Tom Seaver
8. Harmon Killebrew
9. Frank Robinson
10. Pete Rose
11. Frank Howard
12. Juan Marichal
13. Sal Bando
14. Denny McLain
15. Roberto Clemente
16. Boog Powell
17. Cleon Jones
18. Larry Dierker
19. Paul Blair
20. Bobby Bonds
21. Mike Epstein
22. Ken McMullen
23. Ron Santo
24. Johnny Bench
25. Rusty Staub
26. Mike Cuellar
27. Willie Stargell
28. Jim Fregosi
29. Sam McDowell
30. Bill Hands
31. Jim Perry
32. Rod Carew
33. Tony Perez
34. Mel Stottlemyre
35. Carl Yastrzemski
36. Gaylord Perry
37. Ferguson Jenkins
38. Andy Messersmith
39. Bill Singer
40. Reggie Smith
As in prior years, my vote reflects my belief that the NL is still the stronger league.
John Murphy - how do you find any separation between these two players in 1969? Here's how Dan R's data sees them
Player BWAA2 BRWAA2 FWAA2 WARP2
HAaron 6.1 -0.2 0.9 7.6
Robinson 5.8 0.2 0.8 7.5
To me that says the separation is all league strength.
Your conclusion is incorrect, DL. As I pointed out above, I'm only dinging American Leaguers a percentage point, so that's not going to hurt Robby that much at all. I just have Aaron as the superior hitter and fielder, that's all.
As for Dan R.s' data, while I respect his work, I don't agree with many of his conclusions (and with linear-based systems in general for measuring the greatness of individual players - measuring a team's strength is a different story).
One last thing: placing at #12 is not meant to be a knock on his contributions. He had a great season, but the '69 group was pretty strong. In other years, Robinson might have made the top-five or even competed for the top prize.
There's a bit on Ball Four where Bouton recalls how the Yankee's manager went through the respective Yankee and Redsox lineups, position by position, to motivate the Yankees, and it seems that the Yankee shad the "edge" at every position but one, the Yankee manager admitted that Yaz/Maris was a tie... At the time I thought it was a joke, Kubek over Petrocelli??? Hector Lopez (who?) over Tony C??? Bobby Richardson over Mantilla???
Reading it in 1980 most of the Sox names were more familiar to me as good players than half the Yankee names (I mean aside from Mantle/Maris)- the Yankee names I was familiar with, Pepitone/Tresh, etc I was familiar with as being renowned busts/disappointments...
Rico was alternately great and nothing special, his career curve has a rather normal shape, albeit with a prominent spike in his age 26 season (1969 of course), and a bit abbreviated at both ends. He seems to have been player whose numbers were more responsive to playing conditions than most- if HRs went up league wide by 10% his would go up 50%... very unusual player for his time, low average, high walk, slugging SS... His numbers look like a 3B's (which of course he was for the later half of his career)
Player B .275/.400/.608, about 663 PA
How is Player B on average 6 places better?
Player A on base about 298 times, 140 RBI, 106 R, 84 K
Player B on base about 265 times, 118 RBI, 123 R, 142 K
Maybe one was more graceful than the other?
Second, although their OPS numbers are similar (1.018 to 1.011 in favor of player B), league park factors show a larger disparity (OPS+ of 189 to 177).
Third, Player B is credited with better defense (+8 fielding runs/+1.1 dWAR to -14 fielding runs/-1.3 dWAR)
With pitchers and players from another league, that's enough to account for multiple ballot positions in the middle of these two excellent players.
ps. I only have them two spots apart myself but I understand how others might have a larger division.
I'm surprised by that. Especially sunnyday's ballot that had Petrocelli 8th and Gibson 12th.
That sums it up nicely, Chris.
BTW, I didn't even have to know who the players were that Marc was comparing to know one of them had to be a Twin. ;-)
I still haven't added in bpWARP1 in with the other 6 systems...
And there's still some guys I need to get brWAR numbers for...
But here's my top 12 as it currently stands:
9289 reggie jackson
9016 rico petrocelli
8880 willie mccovey
8728 bob gibson
8110 hank aaron
7927 jim wynn
7642 sal bando
7437 juan marichal
7400 frank robinson
7358 harmon killebrew
7263 pete rose
7122 phil niekro
This year looks to be pretty competitive...
Of the six systems that went into this ranking, there are 4 different players
who come out number one....
The average wOBA for an AL starter in 1969 was .306.
The average wOBA for an NL starter in 1969 was .299.
So the question that springs to mind is 'why isn't Mike Cuellar getting a bit more attention?'
The reason he's not getting the love is his credit is going to his defense. Belanger, Blair and Brooks Robinson were all excellent defenders. BBREF says that ALL of his fielders were above average in 1969 - total of 10.7 dWAR for that team.
1)DL from MN- Could you provide a list of some of the leading pitchers using what you have of Dan R's numbers?
2)Dan G- Could you do your usual bpWARP leaders list?
3)Dan G- Also, how do I get the pitcher WARP1 numbers at bp? I can get the position players using info I got from you previously, and it also will get pitcher info but in the pitcher info there isn't WARP1 data...
Thanks!
For example, the 1969 Cardinals.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt//1969STL-N.shtml
There we find:
8.3 7.1 Steve Carlton
11.0 9.6 Bob Gibson
Enter this on a spreadsheet, then go to the next team.
Gibson: 24-10 (very good hitter)
Seaver: 21-9
Hands: 22-11 (bad hitter)
McLain: 24-12
Koosman: 19-8 (dreadful hitter)
Marichal: 22-11
Dierker: 22-12
Singer: 22-13 (bad hitter)
Carlton: 18-8 (good hitter)
Jenkins: 21-13
G. Perry: 22-14 (bad hitter)
J. Perry: 19-10
Stottlemyre: 20-13 (good hitter)
Offense was back up from 3.42 runs/game in 1968 to 4.08 (NL) and 4.09 (AL). Which still makes it a pitcher's era. Being a "virtual" 20 gam winner - that is, 20 RA+ equivalent wins - really isn't all that common. There were a huge number of them in 1969, in large part because there were a lot of guys with 300+ IP.
Gibson is clearly the best pitcher of the year - he's already on top even before we figure in his hitting, and he was the best hitter among the 300-inning workhorses.
Thanks for the showing me the way to link to teams... And that has gotten me ALMOST finished... But how do I find teams that normally have two letter abreviations? Because my attempts with those failed (LA, SF, NY, SD, KC, NY)?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt//1969LA_-N.shtml
Alternatively, you could just go to the page of a player who plays for LA (Osteen) and click on the team name on the line for the year you want.
The problem with comparing McLain and Cuellar is that one is an extreme flyball pitcher, and the other an extreme groundball pitcher. About 59 per cent of McLain's in-play outs were Flyball Outs. Cuellar had 56 percent Groundball Outs. Rather than use defences collectively, in this example I think one needs to break-out the components a bit more.
I have my own defensive system, which attempts to estimate zone ratings, and then uses Chris Dial's DRS method to calculate the amount of runs saved. I don't take it down to the level of individual players, as I don't think the data will stand it. For example, I have ratings for Baltimore 1B, but not for Boog Powell.
To get a comparison, I ranked positions against the League, using my system and BB-ref TotalZone numbers, rather than give a direct 'runs-saved' comparison, because that way I think one gets a better sense of how defences compare in terms of the support they give pitchers in a head-to-head comparison like this.
The big discrepancies come with Tigers' rightfielders, and the right side of the Orioles' infield. I always thought Powell was considered a bit of a DH avant la lettre as a fielder, but BB-ref TZ would suggest otherwise. Also, I never thought of Davey Johnson being a gloveman, but again TZ would suggest otherwise.
My ratings confirm what I thought much better than TotalZone. In which case, McLain has decent support from his mainstay defenders, and I think the gap between him and Cuellar narrows considerably. However, if TZ is preferred, then Cuellar's case for AL 'Cy Young' is weakened substantially.
I might look at Humprhys' DRA later, but my spreadsheets for that seem to have the data out of the proper column alignment, which is making comparisons awkward. If someone has the data correctly slotted into columns, I'd be grateful if they could have a look.
Cuellar: 21-12 (bad hitter, no correction for defense)
Tatum: 8-1
Tatum adjusted for inherited runners: 11-3 (excellent hitter)
Perranoski: 10-4
Perranoski adjusted for inherited runners: 15-7
Yet another virtual 20-game winner. This was the year for them.
It's usually completely unimportant how a relief pitcher bats. And Tatum only had 24 PA. But in those 24 PA, he hit .286/.318/.619 for an OPS+ of 164, so I felt that was worth mentioning. He had a short major league career, but his other seasons and his minor league record are consistent with him being a hitter for real, with serious power. But I see no evidence that he was ever used as a PH in the majors, and it would be hard to use a RP that way, since you don't know when you'll need his arm.
Thanks a lot!
That's a big help...
This is my preliminary ballot:
1. Bob Gibson
2. Rico Petrocelli
3. Reggie Jackson
4. Larry Dierker
5. Willie McCovey
6. Juan Marichal
7. Hank Aaron
8. Frank Robinson
9. Sal Bando
10. Harmon Killebrew
11. Bill Hands
12. Paul Blair
next 5
Steve Carlton
Roberto Clemente
denny McLain
Tom Seaver
Jim Wynn
Killebrew cost his team about a win with his fielding at 3B. He's not great at 1B, but I wouldn't count it against him for the same reason I disregard it for others on my list, explained below.
Howard is really bad in LF, but...
...he's not as bad as Bando at 3B. Bando gives almost half his value with the bat back.
Yastrzemski is into the 'costs a win' territory, but it's close enough that we have to bear in mind Fenway's park effects.
Oliva gets a boost in RF, maybe one and a half wins.
The rest of my list are best regarded as adequate with the glove, and probably one should disregard their fielding for meritorious purposes, given the inability to be precise with defensive statistics.
Carew only started 106 games at 2B for the Twins, but seems to have added about a win.
Apropos of nothing in particular, I have the White Sox infield appearing as historically bad — on the order of costing 11 games bad. The villains appear to be Gail Hopkins (who hit a foul ball I caught in the upper deck of Tiger Stadium in about 1972 when he was with the Royals), Luis Aparicio(!) at age 35 and Bill Melton. Hopkins only made 94 starts at 1B, and 2B was only marginally more stable with Bobby Knoop starting 100 games.
Another welcome to the group. And I agree with DL: Your ballot looks completely sane to me. I may not end up agreeing with all of it, but I would be willing to defend it if someone got cranky and picky. The only real oddity that I see is Dierker at #4. Can you explain how you got him that high? That's all I see to question.
- Brock Hanke
DL from MN: I use a WAR framework. For hitters I use wOBA, adjusted for park, fielding and position: nothing very original. The real problem, as has been mentioned is the fielding adjustment. I use Total Zone numbers only because they are the only ones which seem readily available. If anyone can point me an another direction, I would certainly look into it.
For pitchers I start with runs above average, adjust for park, and fielders, then covert to a WAR number.
My question has been and still is: Since everyone being consider is pretty much a full time player, is WAA a better indicator of excellence than WAR? I am still debating this for my final ballot.
bjhanks: Dierker is one of about 10 pitchers in the NL who had fantastic seasons. The thing that sets Dierker apart is, as mentioned above, that he achieves these numbers playing in front of an awful defense. Contrast that to Seaver, who had better raw numbers, but played in front of a team with very good defense. McCovey's great offensive numbers are affected both because he plays first base and doesn't do it very well. I will make another post about my take on NL pitchers later.
Orig w% Adjust w% WAA
Gibson .709 .713 7.4
Dierker .649 .696 poor defense 6.6
Marichal .669 .678 5.9
Hands .623 .661 Hitters park 5.4
Carlton .695 .695 5.1
Seaver .701 .643 good defense 4.3
There are another 6 with a w% of .600 or more. I have been quite fascinated by the quality of the top pitchers in the ML, especially when compared to the crop in the AL.
"Remember to put 12 names on your ballot."
McCovey finished AHEAD of Dierker in BaseballReferenceWAR 8.9-8.4 (he drops from 9.0 to 8.4 when you include batting and defense). In BaseballProspectusWARP1 Dierker does indeed top McCovey (9.8-8.7).
[And by the way, Dierker is now 8th on my updated prelim ballot (not posted)].
Thanks for the info. I'm so used to averaging various systems that it never occurred to me to just look at one column at the top of the page here. When I looked at the two columns there, they differed so badly on Dierker that I remembered him as a problem, but forgot how high he ranked in one column. Now I wonder how TZ came to its conclusion. The Dome was, of course, a very unusual (actually, unique) ballpark in 1969, which may have thrown the system off. The team itself has some guys (Menke) that I recognize as bad gloves at their positions, but also some (Edwards, Wynn, Morgan) that I recognize as good. Also, the only starter over 30 is Edwards at catcher, whose Gold Glove was all that kept him in the league. Other than that, there's no one who should have lost his defense to age. That is, just looking at the names and ages, there's no reason I can think of for the Astros to have had a really lousy defense. Wonder what TZ is seeing....
- Brock
Petrocelli
Carew
Reggie!
Killebrew
FRobinson
Oliva
Bando
Reggie Smith
Howard
Powell
Yastrzemski
Northrup
Some notes:
Petrocelli and Carew benefit from being very good hitters at non-hitting positions. They add a lot more value as a result. Carew didn't play much, though, so probably falls behind Reggie! and Killebrew once one takes that into account. In this case, I'm probably going to have to look at WPA/LI intensively.
I see Killebrew and Reggie! as very close indeed, even with Killebrew's poor fielding. It seems Killebrew's time hitting at 3B added more value than his glove took away, relative to the rest of the league. Shades of 2012 Miguel Cabrera at 3B?
I don't see anyone outside the top four making my ballot, and possibly one of those four will miss out. At the moment I'm guessing 3-4 AL players, 4-5 NL players, 2-3 NL pitchers, 1-2 AL pitchers.
____
* Excluding SBs.
"He garnered his first batting title in 1969, despite missing two-weeks and several weekends for military commitments."
This deserves a deeper look.
I'm old enough to recognize the military thing for Carew. The issue was the Vietnam draft. There were a few privileged ways to get out of the draft without fleeing to Canada or going to jail. One was to get one of the rare spots in the National Guard or Reserves that weren't likely to be called up. That forced you to miss one two-week period in yearly drill and training, and at least one weekend a month for refresher drill. I think that's still the deal if you join the Guard or Reserves. At the time, a lot of professional athletes got these things, because the local congressman would pull strings, so their hometown stars could play instead of going to fight. My memory is that this was more prevalent in football than baseball, but I'm pretty sure that Carew didn't have a deal any different from any of the other pro athletes who got this break.
There was some controversy over it at the time, but that died down about 3 weeks after the war ended.
- Brock
You asked an interesting question about Houston's defense. The best stat I can think of to compare general defensive ability is the % of balls in play turned into outs (DER).
The league average DER in the NL for 1969 was .701. Houston's DER was .683 (the lowest in the league). This stat doesn't tell us who wasn't making the plays, but it is a good indicator there was somebody who wasn't.
In contrast, the Mets had the best DER at .729.
yes, pretty common in the late 1960s.
The NY Daily News was always running photos of players on duty doing chin-ups or something.
Nolan Ryan was one; I still have the scrapbook around here somewhere....
Anyway, yes these weird military service arrangements were fairly common in the 1960s. (Elgin Baylor did this in the early 1960s and had one of his greatest years.)
- Brock
There's another apparently anomalous result, which I'll get to in a moment. Excluding the aforementioned anomaly, this is how my system regards the fielding of players in my NL wOBA list.
McCovey, Aaron and Wynn all cost their teams about a win with the glove.
Santo and Allen are hovering around a remarkable three wins. Allen takes away something like 75 per cent of his value with the bat, before I adjust for position.
On the plus side, Cleon Jones and May add something like a win and a bit more.
Apart from the anomaly, everyone else's fielding doesn't add or subtract enough to make it worth noting. Overall, my impression is that the NL's best hitters as a group were worse fielders than their AL counterparts.
Having said that, Tony Perez seems to have almost doubled his value with the glove, adding about three wins. At first, I refused to believe this, but the more I look at it, the more I think that his fielding is that good. Cincinnati's staff ratio of ground outs to air outs was below the league average. Cincinnati 3Bs had 354 assists, enough to finish with the second highest total in the league. Perez himself had 342 to lead the league's 3Bs.
Unless someone knows something that isn't showing up in the statistics, Perez' fielding and batting combined take him up quite high in the list.
I've already plugged each of these players into an average lineup to see how much one gains relative to the league average bat at each position, but I'll leave that until tomorrow.
Tony Perez
Cleon Jones
Rose
Bench
Staub
McCovey
Lee May
Mack Jones
Aaron
Santo
Stargell
Wynn
Clemente
Allen
I'm less confident about this order than I am about the AL one because the fielding results don't look right. There are a lot more extreme performances, mostly on the bad sad. I've tried tweaking some of the way effects are calculated, especially for outfielders, but everything I do simply swaps the rankings around at the extremes rather than filling in the middle. At the moment, I'm forced to conclude that NL fielders were either very bad or very good in 1969. Perhaps an effect of expansion?
I also applied these tweaks to the AL with the following effects:
Reggie!'s, FRobinson's and Reggie Smith's fielding got a lot worse.
Oliva's fielding got a bit worse.
As a consequence of this Bando climbed the value chart, while Reggie! fell well behind Killebrew.
Basically, outfielders lost out, which surprised me as I was thinking that my system was already too harsh on them. I thought this tweak (which increased the significance of OF POs in awarding value to OFs) would make them look better!
A further consequence of all this is that I now foresee have 4-5 AL players and 3-4 NL ones on my final list, rather than the other way round. So my player shortlist has a lot of infielders on it and looks something like
Petrocelli, Carew, Killebrew, Bando, Reggie!
Perez, Cleon Jones, Rose, Bench
I'm going to look at pitchers some more. Note that McLain is going to gain a lot in comparison with Cuellar if I stick to this worsening of outfielder fielding value.
McLain 25.7 wins, 6.3 losses for an .829 winning percentage.
Cuellar 24.6 wins, 5.4 losses for an .820 winning percentage.
Bosman 20.3 wins, 3.7 losses for an .846 winning percentage
Palmer 16.3 wins, 3.7 losses for an .815 winning percentage.
McLain contributes the most wins, but Bosman is the most successful pitcher in his starts, just not so many of them. I'm likely to put McLain on the ballot ahead of Cuellar. I don't think Bosman pitched enough ahead of his peers to qualify, but I'll wait to see how the NL pitchers turn out.
It does look to me, in the final analysis that Cuellar was helped a bit more by his defence than McLain, but I don't see it as much of a substantial difference as WAR does. I'm not quite ready to argue that it's either both or none on the ballot, but if McLain is in the top half, I'd be interested to read arguments on why Cuellar shouldn't join him lower down.
Interestingly, when Bouton came over to Houston at the end of 1969, he raved about Morgan and Menke and he loved Edwards's ability to handle the knuckler.
-- MWE
Vancouver (PCL): 7 games 10.0 IP, 2 R, 1 ER, ERA 0.90, WHIP 1.10 but 7 BB to 4 hits.
Seattle (AL): 57 games, 92.0 IP, ERA+ 93, batting .000/.000/.000 in 9 PA, WAR 0.0
Houston (NL): 16 games, 30.2 IP (includes one start, a complete game), ERA+ 87, .000/.000/.000 in 4 PA, WAR 0.2
And tell your statistics to shut up.
1. Reggie Jackson, RF
2. Bob Gibson, P
3. Willie McCovey, 1B
4. Rico Petrocelli, SS
5. Henry Aaron, RF
6. Jimmy Wynn, CF
7. Sal Bando, 3B
8. Larry Dierker, P
9. Frank Robinson, RF
10. Juan Marichal, P
11. Harmon Killebrew, 3B
12. Denny McLain, P
13. Pete Rose, RF
14. Frank Howard, LF
15. Tom Seaver, P
16. Bill Hands, P
17. Roberto Clemente, RF
18. Phil Niekro, P
19. Johnny Bench, C
20. Fergie Jenkins, P
That one start was a 10-inning complete game, no less, and the deciding runs scored with two outs in the 10th after Matty Alou reached base on a third-strike passed ball to start the inning.
Bouton made only 10 appearances all year where the average LI was 1.5 or greater, and 25 appearances where his team was trailing by more than three runs.
-- MWE
I don't know about Carew's citizenship but in the past lack of U.S. citizenship was never a drawback to serving in the military (this may have changed in recent years). When I was in the Air Force in the mid-seventies I served with several people who were non-citizens; apparently the only requirement then was that you be willing to swear an oath to defend and protect the constitution of the United States. I remember working with one young woman from the Phillipines who could barely speak English but apparently she could read and write it well enough to do her job. I suspect that an honorable discharge would have been looked upon favorably in the naturalization process, I'm sure it couldn't hurt.
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