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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Thursday, June 14, 2012Most Meritorious Player: 1973 BallotHere are the specific rules for this election: Balloting will close at 4pm EST on 20 June 2012. Anyone can vote, even if you do not normally participate in Hall of Merit discussions. If have never participated in an MMP election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 19 June 2012. |
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(168 - 1:46pm, Jul 13) Last: DL from MN Most Meritorious Player: Trophy Case (71 - 6:53pm, Jul 08) Last: DL from MN Most Meritorious Player: 1900 Results (6 - 6:28pm, Jul 08) Last: DL from MN Most Meritorious Player: 1900 Ballot (11 - 4:03pm, Jul 06) Last: DL from MN Most Meritorious Player: 1918 Results (6 - 8:58pm, Jun 29) Last: kenna Most Meritorious Player: 1920 Ballot (25 - 8:55pm, Jun 29) Last: kenna Most Meritorious Player: 1900 Discussion (9 - 1:14am, Jun 29) Last: Harmon Ripkowski Hall of Merit Book Club (6 - 12:45pm, Jun 28) Last: progrockfan Most Meritorious Player: 1899 Results (6 - 1:51pm, Jun 22) Last: DL from MN Most Meritorious Player: 1899 Ballot (10 - 9:54am, Jun 22) Last: TomH Most Meritorious Player: 1899 Discussion (9 - 9:04am, May 31) Last: DL from MN Most Meritorious Player: 1898 Results (4 - 3:22pm, May 06) Last: DL from MN Most Meritorious Player: 1898 Ballot (8 - 10:07am, May 05) Last: DL from MN Most Meritorious Player: 1898 Discussion (7 - 1:08am, May 02) Last: Harmon Ripkowski Most Meritorious Player: 1897 Results (2 - 4:29pm, Apr 06) Last: DL from MN |
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1. DL from MN Posted: June 14, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4157068)1) Tom Seaver - postseason innings move him ahead of Joe Morgan
2) Joe Morgan - Morgan and Seaver separate themselves from the rest of the pack
3) Darrell Evans - very good defensive year, good year at the plate
4) Bert Blyleven - best AL pitcher
5) Bobby Grich - fantastic defensive season
6) Rod Carew - I was a little surprised to see only half a win baserunning
7) Willie Stargell - best hitter in baseball this year, not much defensive value
8) Nolan Ryan - same number of innings as Bert, not quite as effective
9) Joe Ferguson - C bonus
10) Thurman Munson - C bonus, Ferguson hit a little better
11) John Hiller - his terrific relief season landed him here
12) Steve Rogers - giving credit for minor league time according to the rules established
13-15) Jim Palmer, Pete Rose, Gaylord Perry
16-20) Cesar Cedeno, Bill Lee, Bobby Bonds, Ken Singleton, Henry Aaron
1. Darrell Evans, Atlanta Braves, 3B: I'll admit that I'm a little surprised too but Evans had a 156 OPS+ and 143 runs created in the better league while playing superior defense at a difficult position. I believe players can have great defensive peaks as much as they can have offensive ones but Evans has such a large lead over Stargell that he takes the top spot even with half of his defensive credit.
2. Willie Stargell, Pittsburgh Pirates, LF:186 OPS+, 136 runs created
3. Joe Morgan, Cincinnati Reds, 2B: 154 OPS+ and 128 runs created with +11 fielding runs
4. Bert Blyleven, Minnesota Twins, P: 158 ERA+ in 325 innings; narrowly beats out Seaver for best pitcher
5. Tom Seaver, New York Mets, P: 175 ERA+ in 290 innings
6. John Hiller, Detroit Tigers, RP: 283 ERA+ in 125 innings; there's a big gap between Blyleven and Seaver at 4 & 5 and Hiller at 6
7. Jim Palmer, Baltimore Orioles, P: 156 ERA+ in 296 innings; I might be Palmer's biggest fan for the second year in a row, probably because I don't ding him for playing in front of a great defense
8. Thurman Munson, New York Yankees, C: 141 OPS+ from behind the dish
9. Wilbur Wood, Chicago White Sox, P: 116 ERA+ in a sick 359 innings pitched
10. Mike Marshall, Montreal Expos, RP: 144 ERA+ in 179 innings (or 142 ERA+ as bb ref has different numbers on the league leader and player page)
11. Rod Carew, Minnesota Twins, 2B: 144 OPS+ and 113 runs created
12. Bobby Bonds, San Francisco Giants, LF: 142 OPS+ and 130 runs created plus positive contributions in the field on the bases
And the next group:
13. Bill Lee, Boston Red Sox, P
14. Gaylord Perry, Cleveland Indians, P
15. Nolan Ryan, California Angels, P
16. Reggie Jackson, Oakland A's, RF
17. Pete Rose, Cincinnati Reds, LF
18. Sal Bando, Oakland A's, 3B
19. Tony Perez, Cincinnati Reds, 1B
20. Cesar Cedeno, Houston Astros, CF
Here's my ballot. The numbers here are pWins - pLosses, pWOPA, pWORL. Comments then follow.
1. Joe Morgan, 27.4 - 17.2, 5.1, 7.3 - best player in MLB no matter how I measure it.
2. Tom Seaver, 21.9 - 16.0, 3.9, 5.7 - strong postseason makes him a fairly clear #2.
3. Nolan Ryan, 23.1 - 15.8, 3.9, 5.7 - there's a bit more clear separation between him and Seaver in eWOPA/eWORL.
4. Reggie Jackson, 25.6 - 17.9, 3.5, 5.7 - best position player in the AL.
5. Bert Blyleven, 19.2 - 14.2, 2.8, 4.3 - better than Ryan in context-neutral; I think team wins really do matter, although not exclusively.
6. Willie Stargell, 25.8 - 17.9, 3.0, 5.2
7. Bobby Bonds, 26.9 - 19.8, 2.8, 5.1
8. Darrell Evans, 20.7 - 15.8, 1.8, 3.6 - he looks much better in context-neutral stats. His context-neutral numbers are based a bit too much on fielding numbers (.534 winning percentage) that are a bit out of line with his career (.503 career fielding winning percentage), which is why I'm not bumping him up any higher than this.
9. John Hiller, 12.6 - 5.2, 3.3, 4.5 - see my comment #14. I've given him a bit of a bonus here, which basically pushes him ahead of Palmer and Sutton.
10. Jim Palmer, 19.3 - 11.9, 3.9, 5.4
11. Don Sutton, 20.0 - 14.7, 3.6, 5.2 - Palmer and Sutton rank 4th and 5th in pWOPA. Both fall somewhat in context-neutral stats. I slide them down here partly because of that and partly because I have starting pitchers ranked 2 - 5 in pWOPA, and I tend to like at least some positional variety in my ballot.
12. Thurman Munson, 16.0 - 13.2, 1.9, 3.3 - best catcher in MLB; the bonus for that is what puts him on the ballot.
1. Joe Morgan - great season in his run of great seasons
2. Reggie Jackson - led AL in SLG and OPS+
3. Darrell Evans - led NL in BB and WPA/LI (hit 41 HR and played very good def 3b)
4. Tom Seaver - led NL in ERA, SO and CG
5. Rod Carew - led AL in BAvg and played decent 2b
6. Willie Sargell - led NL in SLG and OPS+
7. Thurman Munson - very good season
8. Pete Rose - led NL in BAvg
9. Bobby Grich - very underrated throughout his career
10. Cesar Cedeno - great season in astrodome
11. Bobby Bonds - his best season (just one HR shy of first 40/40 season)
12. Bert Blyleven - led AL in ERA+ and ShO
The rest:
13-20. Bando, Singleton, Scott, Simmons, North, Perez, RSmith, Otis
2. Tom Seaver
3. Bert Blyleven
4. John Hiller
5. Sal Bando
6. Willie Stargell (the year's best hitter)
7. Jim Palmer
8. Darrell Evans
9. Cesar Cedeno
10. Pete Rose
11. Reggie Jackson
12. Gene Tenace
Also considered: Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Wayne Twitchell, Mike Marshall, Bobby Grich, Tony Perez, Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson, Johnny Bench.
"Voters should consider the player’s on-field contribution to Major League Baseball (MLB) team(s) in that season only. If part of the season was spent outside MLB, that value may be considered as well. However, the player’s on-field contribution should be judged in relation to the highest level major league, not relative to a minor league."
You don't have to consider minor league contribution, but it is allowed.
1. Joe Morgan -- I prefer position players to pitchers as a rule, and Morgan's the best of them.
2. Seaver
3. Blyleven
<but one can't ignore seasons this good altogether>
4. Darrel Evans
5. Stargell
6. Grich
7. Hiller -- weird, great season
8. Reggie Jackson
9. Thurman Munson -- c-c-c-catcher bonus!
10. Gaylord Perry
11. Nolan Ryan
12. Bobby Bonds
WAR framework with reduced replacement value (WARR)
1. Tom Seaver: 9.85 WARR
2. Bert Blyleven 9.00 WARR
3. Darrell Evans 8.05 WARR
4. Joe Morgan 7.95 WARR
5. John Hiller 7.80 WARR
6. Bobby Grich 7.05 WARR
7. Pete Rose 8.85 WARR
8. Bobby Bonds 6.65 WARR
9. Nolan Ryan 6.50 WARR
10. Gaylord Perry 6.35 WARR
11. Wilbur Wood 6.35 WARR
12. Cesar Cedeno 6.25 WARR
Rest of the top 20
13. Reggie Jackson
14.Thurman Munson
15. Bill North
16. Willie Stargell
17. Bill Lee
18. George Scott
19. Rod Carew
20. Jim Palmer
2. Joe Morgan 157 OPS+
3. Reggie Jackson 165 OPS+
4. Pete Rose 139 OPS+
5. Tom Seaver 174 ERA+
6. Sal Bando 153 OPS+
7. John Hiller 156 ERA+
8. Darrell Evans 153 OPS+
9. Bert Blyleven 157 ERA+
10. Bobby Bonds 141 OPS+
11. Jim Palmer 156 ERA+
12. Tony Perez 162 OPS+
13. Cesar Cedeno 151 OPS+
14. Amos Otis 129 OPS+
15. Rod Carew 143 OPS+
1) Joe Morgan: Best ML player of '73.
2) Willie Stargell: Best ML left fielder - not that far off from Little Joe.
3) John Hiller: Best ML pitcher and AL player - went over this one a few times and I'm still sticking with it.
4) Tom Seaver: Best ML starting pitcher; very close to Hiller - really, really wanted to push him higher, but I was able to contain my fan worship. :-)
5) Darrel Evans: Best ML third baseman.
6) Reggie Jackson: Best ML right fielder.
7) Bert Blyleven: Best AL starting pitcher.
8) Jim Palmer: Seemed like he had the same season every year for a while during the '70s. Of course, when its a season like '73, that's going to be a big help to your team.
9) Sal Bando: Best AL third baseman.
10) Cesar Cedeno: Best ML center fielder.
11) Pete Rose: Can't deny he was very a good player.
12) Nolan Ryan: Could have used him during the '73 postseason (the first one I ever saw). The Mets might have had their second WS win.
2 8.21 Bert Blyleven (P) 9.4 325 156 ERA+ 3.85 SO/BB __ 5.78
3 8.89 Joe Morgan (2B) 9.1 698 154 OPS+ .290/.406/.493 11 8.47
4 8.57 Darrell Evans (3B+) 8.9 733 156 OPS+ .281/.403/.556 18 7.89
5 9.45 John Hiller (RP) 7.9 125.3 283 ERA+ 3.18 SO/BB __ 12.61 Still no real idea, but great great relief season.
6 7.83 Pete Rose (LF) 8.2 752 152 OPS+ .338/.401/.437 20 7.09
7 7.51 Cesar Cedeno (CF) 7.2 576 152 OPS+ .320/.376/.537 9 8.13
8 7.45 Thurman Munson (C)* 6.9 (6.5) 576 142 OPS+ .301/.362/.487 9 (5) 7.34 10% bonus
9 7.16 Willie Stargell (LF) 7 609 186 OPS+ .299/.392/.646 3 7.47
10 7.08 Reggie Jackson (RF)* 7.4 (7.0) 629 161 OPS+ .293/.383/.531 10 (6) 7.23
11 7.01 Bobby Bonds (RF)* 7.7 (7.3) 738 143 OPS+ .283/.370/.530 14 (10) 6.43
12 6.46 Nolan Ryan (P) 7.4 326 123 ERA+ 2.36 SO/BB __ 4.54
Same as prelim, except moved Blyleven up to 2nd, and moved Nolan Ryan into 12th.
if I clicked it, I could not actually edit their post.
1 MORGAN, JOE 9654
2 EVANS, DARRELL 8474
3 HILLER, JOHN 8320
4 SEAVER, TOM 8268
5 STARGELL, WILLIE 8157
6 BLYLEVEN, BERT 7871
7 ROSE, PETE 7524
8 BONDS, BOBBY 7275
9 JACKSON, REGGIE 7162
10 GRICH, BOBBY 7123
11 RYAN, NOLAN 7068
12 CEDENO, CESAR 6944
eric
howie menckel
bjhanke
fra paulo (prelim)
yardape (prelim)
Rick A
We have 10 ballots at this time, I'd love to get 15. The results aren't all that close at the top but the downballot slots are jumbled. This is shaping up to be one of our more interesting elections.
1. Joe Morgan
2. Darrell Evans
3. Bobby Bonds
4. Bert Blyleven
5. Tom Seaver
6. Reggie Jackson
7. Bobby Grich
8. Pete Rose
9. Willie Stargell
10. John Hiller
11. Cesar Cedeno
12. Nolan Ryan
1. Joe Morgan
Well, yes.
2. Darrell Evans
There were several positions that got dominated this year, mostly by the players at the top of this list. But no one dominated a position like Darrell Evans did, so I moved his ranking up above all the other dominators except Morgan, who is off the scale.
3. Bobby Bonds
I may have Bobby higher than he should be, but every time I look at his numbers, I get more impressed. I should stop now, before I start thinking he was better than even Morgan or Evans, which would be complete nonsense.
4. Bert Blyleven
BB-Ref WAR has Bert and Tom Seaver ranked a lot higher than Win Shares does. This year, I'm inclined to agree with WAR.
5. Tom Seaver
I dropped Tom below Bert because, although his superficial numbers in the World Series look real good, they are actually below the whole staff numbers, and he didn't win.
6. Reggie Jackson
Reggie, on the other hand, played very well in the Series, although Seaver was probably more valuable to his team over the course of the season.
7. Bobby Grich
Moved up because he dominated second base very seriously, except for Joe Morgan, who is an unfair standard of comparison.
8. Pete Rose
I didn't move Pete down from where he started; I moved other players up above him. He ended up here. I may have him low; he did dominate his position.
9. Willie Stargell
Pretty much an average of where Win Shares has him and where WAR does.
10. John Hiller
Win Shares has him ninth. WAR has him seventh. I'm pretty sure I have him about right, if not a bit low.
11. Cesar Cedeno
Once again, Cesar looks like he's headed straight for the Hall of Fame.
12. Nolan Ryan
Another case where I trusted WAR more than Win Shares about a pitcher.
1. Bert Blyleven
2. Tom Seaver
3. Joe Morgan
4. Nolan Ryan
5. Sal Bando
6. Bobby Grich
7. Gaylord Perry
8. Darrell Evans
9. Johnny Bench
10. Dagoberto Campaneris
11. Thurman Munson
12. Joe Ferguson
1 Stargell
2 Morgan
3 Reggie!
4 Seaver
5 Blyleven
6 Mayberry
7 Bonds
8 Palmer
9 Rose
10 Perez
11 Cedeno
12 Ryan
I definitely need to check that out and try commenting (assuming it's not one of those damn sites where I need to be on facebook).
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