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Thursday, June 14, 2012

Most Meritorious Player: 1973 Ballot

Here are the specific rules for this election:
Candidate Eligibility: Any North American professional baseball player is eligible for the Most Meritorious Player (MMP) award including players in the top Negro Leagues or independent teams. Voters should consider the player’s on-field contribution to Major League Baseball (MLB) team(s) in that season only. If part of the season was spent outside MLB, that value may be considered as well. However, the player’s on-field contribution should be judged in relation to the highest level major league, not relative to a minor league. A season may include playoff or World Series games but does not include spring training or exhibition games. No credit will be given for games not played due to injury, wartime service or contract holdouts.
Ballot Length: For 1973, each voter should rank 12 players.
Voter eligibility: All voters who did not vote in the previous year’s election must post a preliminary ballot in the ballot discussion thread at least 2 days before voting ends. All voters must fill out a complete ballot. Voters must briefly explain their ballot choices. One person, one vote; anyone determined to have voted with multiple accounts will be banned and their votes will be disallowed. The MMP ballot committee has authority to exclude any ballot that does not meet these requirements.
Scoring: Points will be given in descending order with the highest-ranked player receiving 15 points, the second highest 14 points, and so on until the last player on the ballot receives 4 points. The player with the highest point total will be named the Most Meritorious Player. In case of a tie, the tiebreaker will be number of 1st place votes. If the first tiebreaker does not determine a winner the players will share the title of Most Meritorious Player.

Balloting will close at 4pm EST on 20 June 2012.

Anyone can vote, even if you do not normally participate in Hall of Merit discussions. If have never participated in an MMP election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 19 June 2012.

DL from MN Posted: June 14, 2012 at 04:42 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: June 14, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4157068)
Sorry for the late ballot posting, still catching up at work after vacation. If necessary I'll extend the ballot close date.
   2. DL from MN Posted: June 14, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4157072)
hot topics
   3. DL from MN Posted: June 15, 2012 at 12:00 PM (#4157728)
1973 Ballot

1) Tom Seaver - postseason innings move him ahead of Joe Morgan
2) Joe Morgan - Morgan and Seaver separate themselves from the rest of the pack
3) Darrell Evans - very good defensive year, good year at the plate
4) Bert Blyleven - best AL pitcher
5) Bobby Grich - fantastic defensive season
6) Rod Carew - I was a little surprised to see only half a win baserunning
7) Willie Stargell - best hitter in baseball this year, not much defensive value
8) Nolan Ryan - same number of innings as Bert, not quite as effective
9) Joe Ferguson - C bonus
10) Thurman Munson - C bonus, Ferguson hit a little better
11) John Hiller - his terrific relief season landed him here
12) Steve Rogers - giving credit for minor league time according to the rules established

13-15) Jim Palmer, Pete Rose, Gaylord Perry
16-20) Cesar Cedeno, Bill Lee, Bobby Bonds, Ken Singleton, Henry Aaron
   4. Qufini Posted: June 15, 2012 at 03:18 PM (#4158012)
1973 Ballot

1. Darrell Evans, Atlanta Braves, 3B: I'll admit that I'm a little surprised too but Evans had a 156 OPS+ and 143 runs created in the better league while playing superior defense at a difficult position. I believe players can have great defensive peaks as much as they can have offensive ones but Evans has such a large lead over Stargell that he takes the top spot even with half of his defensive credit.

2. Willie Stargell, Pittsburgh Pirates, LF:186 OPS+, 136 runs created
3. Joe Morgan, Cincinnati Reds, 2B: 154 OPS+ and 128 runs created with +11 fielding runs
4. Bert Blyleven, Minnesota Twins, P: 158 ERA+ in 325 innings; narrowly beats out Seaver for best pitcher
5. Tom Seaver, New York Mets, P: 175 ERA+ in 290 innings
6. John Hiller, Detroit Tigers, RP: 283 ERA+ in 125 innings; there's a big gap between Blyleven and Seaver at 4 & 5 and Hiller at 6
7. Jim Palmer, Baltimore Orioles, P: 156 ERA+ in 296 innings; I might be Palmer's biggest fan for the second year in a row, probably because I don't ding him for playing in front of a great defense
8. Thurman Munson, New York Yankees, C: 141 OPS+ from behind the dish
9. Wilbur Wood, Chicago White Sox, P: 116 ERA+ in a sick 359 innings pitched
10. Mike Marshall, Montreal Expos, RP: 144 ERA+ in 179 innings (or 142 ERA+ as bb ref has different numbers on the league leader and player page)
11. Rod Carew, Minnesota Twins, 2B: 144 OPS+ and 113 runs created
12. Bobby Bonds, San Francisco Giants, LF: 142 OPS+ and 130 runs created plus positive contributions in the field on the bases

And the next group:
13. Bill Lee, Boston Red Sox, P
14. Gaylord Perry, Cleveland Indians, P
15. Nolan Ryan, California Angels, P
16. Reggie Jackson, Oakland A's, RF
17. Pete Rose, Cincinnati Reds, LF
18. Sal Bando, Oakland A's, 3B
19. Tony Perez, Cincinnati Reds, 1B
20. Cesar Cedeno, Houston Astros, CF
   5. Kiko Sakata Posted: June 16, 2012 at 12:33 AM (#4158429)
This is just copied directly from the discussion thread (comment #29 if anybody cares):

Here's my ballot. The numbers here are pWins - pLosses, pWOPA, pWORL. Comments then follow.

1. Joe Morgan, 27.4 - 17.2, 5.1, 7.3 - best player in MLB no matter how I measure it.
2. Tom Seaver, 21.9 - 16.0, 3.9, 5.7 - strong postseason makes him a fairly clear #2.
3. Nolan Ryan, 23.1 - 15.8, 3.9, 5.7 - there's a bit more clear separation between him and Seaver in eWOPA/eWORL.
4. Reggie Jackson, 25.6 - 17.9, 3.5, 5.7 - best position player in the AL.
5. Bert Blyleven, 19.2 - 14.2, 2.8, 4.3 - better than Ryan in context-neutral; I think team wins really do matter, although not exclusively.
6. Willie Stargell, 25.8 - 17.9, 3.0, 5.2
7. Bobby Bonds, 26.9 - 19.8, 2.8, 5.1
8. Darrell Evans, 20.7 - 15.8, 1.8, 3.6 - he looks much better in context-neutral stats. His context-neutral numbers are based a bit too much on fielding numbers (.534 winning percentage) that are a bit out of line with his career (.503 career fielding winning percentage), which is why I'm not bumping him up any higher than this.
9. John Hiller, 12.6 - 5.2, 3.3, 4.5 - see my comment #14. I've given him a bit of a bonus here, which basically pushes him ahead of Palmer and Sutton.
10. Jim Palmer, 19.3 - 11.9, 3.9, 5.4
11. Don Sutton, 20.0 - 14.7, 3.6, 5.2 - Palmer and Sutton rank 4th and 5th in pWOPA. Both fall somewhat in context-neutral stats. I slide them down here partly because of that and partly because I have starting pitchers ranked 2 - 5 in pWOPA, and I tend to like at least some positional variety in my ballot.
12. Thurman Munson, 16.0 - 13.2, 1.9, 3.3 - best catcher in MLB; the bonus for that is what puts him on the ballot.
   6. Rob_Wood Posted: June 16, 2012 at 06:29 PM (#4158831)
My 1973 MMP ballot:

1. Joe Morgan - great season in his run of great seasons
2. Reggie Jackson - led AL in SLG and OPS+
3. Darrell Evans - led NL in BB and WPA/LI (hit 41 HR and played very good def 3b)
4. Tom Seaver - led NL in ERA, SO and CG
5. Rod Carew - led AL in BAvg and played decent 2b
6. Willie Sargell - led NL in SLG and OPS+
7. Thurman Munson - very good season
8. Pete Rose - led NL in BAvg
9. Bobby Grich - very underrated throughout his career
10. Cesar Cedeno - great season in astrodome
11. Bobby Bonds - his best season (just one HR shy of first 40/40 season)
12. Bert Blyleven - led AL in ERA+ and ShO

The rest:

13-20. Bando, Singleton, Scott, Simmons, North, Perez, RSmith, Otis
   7. OCF Posted: June 17, 2012 at 12:35 AM (#4159096)
1. Joe Morgan
2. Tom Seaver
3. Bert Blyleven
4. John Hiller
5. Sal Bando
6. Willie Stargell (the year's best hitter)
7. Jim Palmer
8. Darrell Evans
9. Cesar Cedeno
10. Pete Rose
11. Reggie Jackson
12. Gene Tenace

Also considered: Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Wayne Twitchell, Mike Marshall, Bobby Grich, Tony Perez, Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson, Johnny Bench.
   8. bjhanke Posted: June 17, 2012 at 02:51 AM (#4159116)
RE: #3 and Steve Rogers: I need to ask a question here. I've always ignored, for MLE purposes, a player's LAST minor league season before reaching the majors. The reason is that, until the player actually produces at a major league level in the minors for a year, the major league team doesn't know if it's a real step up in quality or a fluke. If the rules here require me to not do that, and include minor league play MLEs even if they are the first decent MLEs the player has ever produced, I need to know that. Otherwise, I'll continue to ignore things like Rogers' minor league play here in 1973. Can I get an answer to this before I make up my ballot? Meaning at least before June 19? If not, I'll ignore Rogers' MLE content, as I've done in the past. I just don't want to ignore an actual rule here, regardless of what I may or may not think. Thanks, - Brock Hanke
   9. DL from MN Posted: June 17, 2012 at 11:03 AM (#4159149)
The rules are stated above.

"Voters should consider the player’s on-field contribution to Major League Baseball (MLB) team(s) in that season only. If part of the season was spent outside MLB, that value may be considered as well. However, the player’s on-field contribution should be judged in relation to the highest level major league, not relative to a minor league."

You don't have to consider minor league contribution, but it is allowed.
   10. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: June 17, 2012 at 05:02 PM (#4159327)
Made an error in the discussion thread -- had Stargell twice; one was supposed to be Jackson. Fixed below.

1. Joe Morgan -- I prefer position players to pitchers as a rule, and Morgan's the best of them.
2. Seaver
3. Blyleven
<but one can't ignore seasons this good altogether>
4. Darrel Evans
5. Stargell
6. Grich
7. Hiller -- weird, great season
8. Reggie Jackson
9. Thurman Munson -- c-c-c-catcher bonus!
10. Gaylord Perry
11. Nolan Ryan
12. Bobby Bonds
   11. Mr. C Posted: June 17, 2012 at 11:28 PM (#4159701)
1973 Ballot

WAR framework with reduced replacement value (WARR)

1. Tom Seaver: 9.85 WARR
2. Bert Blyleven 9.00 WARR
3. Darrell Evans 8.05 WARR
4. Joe Morgan 7.95 WARR
5. John Hiller 7.80 WARR
6. Bobby Grich 7.05 WARR
7. Pete Rose 8.85 WARR
8. Bobby Bonds 6.65 WARR
9. Nolan Ryan 6.50 WARR
10. Gaylord Perry 6.35 WARR
11. Wilbur Wood 6.35 WARR
12. Cesar Cedeno 6.25 WARR

Rest of the top 20
13. Reggie Jackson
14.Thurman Munson
15. Bill North
16. Willie Stargell
17. Bill Lee
18. George Scott
19. Rod Carew
20. Jim Palmer
   12. Mr. C Posted: June 17, 2012 at 11:35 PM (#4159704)
Rose's score should be 6.85 not 8.85.
   13. sunnyday2 Posted: June 18, 2012 at 08:37 AM (#4159763)
1. Willie Stargell 189 OPS+
2. Joe Morgan 157 OPS+
3. Reggie Jackson 165 OPS+
4. Pete Rose 139 OPS+
5. Tom Seaver 174 ERA+

6. Sal Bando 153 OPS+
7. John Hiller 156 ERA+
8. Darrell Evans 153 OPS+
9. Bert Blyleven 157 ERA+
10. Bobby Bonds 141 OPS+

11. Jim Palmer 156 ERA+
12. Tony Perez 162 OPS+

13. Cesar Cedeno 151 OPS+
14. Amos Otis 129 OPS+
15. Rod Carew 143 OPS+

   14. bjhanke Posted: June 18, 2012 at 09:06 AM (#4159778)
DL - THANK YOU! Quick response, and an open-minded rule, I really can't complain. I certainly will vote. - Thanks again, - Brock
   15. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 18, 2012 at 02:12 PM (#4160067)
1973 Ballot (no post-season bonuses):

1) Joe Morgan: Best ML player of '73.
2) Willie Stargell: Best ML left fielder - not that far off from Little Joe.
3) John Hiller: Best ML pitcher and AL player - went over this one a few times and I'm still sticking with it.
4) Tom Seaver: Best ML starting pitcher; very close to Hiller - really, really wanted to push him higher, but I was able to contain my fan worship. :-)
5) Darrel Evans: Best ML third baseman.
6) Reggie Jackson: Best ML right fielder.
7) Bert Blyleven: Best AL starting pitcher.
8) Jim Palmer: Seemed like he had the same season every year for a while during the '70s. Of course, when its a season like '73, that's going to be a big help to your team.
9) Sal Bando: Best AL third baseman.
10) Cesar Cedeno: Best ML center fielder.
11) Pete Rose: Can't deny he was very a good player.
12) Nolan Ryan: Could have used him during the '73 postseason (the first one I ever saw). The Mets might have had their second WS win.
   16. SoCalDemon Posted: June 18, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4160076)
1 9.60 Tom Seaver (P) 10.7 290 175 ERA+ 3.92 SO/BB 28 OPS+ 7.38
2 8.21 Bert Blyleven (P) 9.4 325 156 ERA+ 3.85 SO/BB __ 5.78
3 8.89 Joe Morgan (2B) 9.1 698 154 OPS+ .290/.406/.493 11 8.47
4 8.57 Darrell Evans (3B+) 8.9 733 156 OPS+ .281/.403/.556 18 7.89
5 9.45 John Hiller (RP) 7.9 125.3 283 ERA+ 3.18 SO/BB __ 12.61 Still no real idea, but great great relief season.
6 7.83 Pete Rose (LF) 8.2 752 152 OPS+ .338/.401/.437 20 7.09
7 7.51 Cesar Cedeno (CF) 7.2 576 152 OPS+ .320/.376/.537 9 8.13
8 7.45 Thurman Munson (C)* 6.9 (6.5) 576 142 OPS+ .301/.362/.487 9 (5) 7.34 10% bonus
9 7.16 Willie Stargell (LF) 7 609 186 OPS+ .299/.392/.646 3 7.47
10 7.08 Reggie Jackson (RF)* 7.4 (7.0) 629 161 OPS+ .293/.383/.531 10 (6) 7.23
11 7.01 Bobby Bonds (RF)* 7.7 (7.3) 738 143 OPS+ .283/.370/.530 14 (10) 6.43
12 6.46 Nolan Ryan (P) 7.4 326 123 ERA+ 2.36 SO/BB __ 4.54

Same as prelim, except moved Blyleven up to 2nd, and moved Nolan Ryan into 12th.
   17. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: June 18, 2012 at 04:03 PM (#4160244)
Er . . . should I have the ability to edit everybody's posts? Because right now it seems like I do. I could rig the hell out of this election for Joe Rudi.
   18. Rob_Wood Posted: June 18, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4160325)
Can you actually edit someone else's post? For awhile I could see an "Edit" link on everyone's posts, but
if I clicked it, I could not actually edit their post.
   19. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: June 18, 2012 at 05:08 PM (#4160363)
Well, it's gone now, so I can't check. That was weird.
   20. sunnyday2 Posted: June 18, 2012 at 10:30 PM (#4160678)
I think there's a Twilight Zone or Outer Limits script in there somewhere.
   21. lieiam Posted: June 18, 2012 at 11:18 PM (#4160716)
There is a SLIM chance I may re-do my ballot... if so i will post it as such and apologize profusely. However, I'm worried I may not be able to get this posted here if I don't do it now so here's my ballot, same as my prelim. It's 5 systems mixed together, with a 10% catcher bonus and no postseason bonus.

1 MORGAN, JOE 9654
4 SEAVER, TOM 8268
7 ROSE, PETE 7524
10 GRICH, BOBBY 7123
11 RYAN, NOLAN 7068
   22. DL from MN Posted: June 19, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4161112)
Voted at some point in the last 3 elections, not yet voted

howie menckel
fra paulo (prelim)
yardape (prelim)
Rick A

We have 10 ballots at this time, I'd love to get 15. The results aren't all that close at the top but the downballot slots are jumbled. This is shaping up to be one of our more interesting elections.
   23. bjhanke Posted: June 20, 2012 at 04:48 AM (#4161777)
This is Brock Hanke's ballot. As per usual, I have the list first, then the comments. It was a strange year. There were more players dominating their position than usual, which means that each of the dominators got a lesser boost than they normally would have. There are also a lot of pitchers. I have some ideas about why, but lack the time to firm up the research and actually say something I would be willing to back up.

1. Joe Morgan
2. Darrell Evans
3. Bobby Bonds
4. Bert Blyleven
5. Tom Seaver
6. Reggie Jackson
7. Bobby Grich
8. Pete Rose
9. Willie Stargell
10. John Hiller
11. Cesar Cedeno
12. Nolan Ryan

1. Joe Morgan
Well, yes.

2. Darrell Evans
There were several positions that got dominated this year, mostly by the players at the top of this list. But no one dominated a position like Darrell Evans did, so I moved his ranking up above all the other dominators except Morgan, who is off the scale.

3. Bobby Bonds
I may have Bobby higher than he should be, but every time I look at his numbers, I get more impressed. I should stop now, before I start thinking he was better than even Morgan or Evans, which would be complete nonsense.

4. Bert Blyleven
BB-Ref WAR has Bert and Tom Seaver ranked a lot higher than Win Shares does. This year, I'm inclined to agree with WAR.

5. Tom Seaver
I dropped Tom below Bert because, although his superficial numbers in the World Series look real good, they are actually below the whole staff numbers, and he didn't win.

6. Reggie Jackson
Reggie, on the other hand, played very well in the Series, although Seaver was probably more valuable to his team over the course of the season.

7. Bobby Grich
Moved up because he dominated second base very seriously, except for Joe Morgan, who is an unfair standard of comparison.

8. Pete Rose
I didn't move Pete down from where he started; I moved other players up above him. He ended up here. I may have him low; he did dominate his position.

9. Willie Stargell
Pretty much an average of where Win Shares has him and where WAR does.

10. John Hiller
Win Shares has him ninth. WAR has him seventh. I'm pretty sure I have him about right, if not a bit low.

11. Cesar Cedeno
Once again, Cesar looks like he's headed straight for the Hall of Fame.

12. Nolan Ryan
Another case where I trusted WAR more than Win Shares about a pitcher.
   24. Cassidemius Posted: June 20, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4162108)
My ballot. No changes from the prelim, so I'll just list them.

1. Bert Blyleven
2. Tom Seaver
3. Joe Morgan
4. Nolan Ryan
5. Sal Bando
6. Bobby Grich
7. Gaylord Perry
8. Darrell Evans
9. Johnny Bench
10. Dagoberto Campaneris
11. Thurman Munson
12. Joe Ferguson
   25. DL from MN Posted: June 20, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4162180)
fra paolo's ballot:

1 Stargell
2 Morgan
3 Reggie!
4 Seaver
5 Blyleven
6 Mayberry
7 Bonds
8 Palmer
9 Rose
10 Perez
11 Cedeno
12 Ryan
   26. DL from MN Posted: June 20, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4162181)
Balloting is now closed. Joe Morgan is the 1973 MMP with half of the first place votes. Final results will be published in the near future.
   27. theorioleway Posted: June 20, 2012 at 06:35 PM (#4162255)
lieiam: Check out The Baseball Gauge website -- I'm trying to convince him to bring back his WAR version, he's thinking of bringing it back, but also thinking of scrapping his WSAB. Since I know you frequent the site and use all the numbers, I figured you might want to comment. I figure it's a worthy trade off.
   28. lieiam Posted: June 21, 2012 at 12:23 AM (#4162520)
Thanks for the tip, theorioleway!
I definitely need to check that out and try commenting (assuming it's not one of those damn sites where I need to be on facebook).
   29. theorioleway Posted: June 21, 2012 at 06:25 PM (#4163023)
lieiam: Haha, I don't use facebook either!
   30. eric Posted: June 24, 2012 at 02:33 AM (#4164646)
hi guys, sorry I meant to participae. End of school year with me a math teacher and tutor means BBTF fell completely off my radar (along with just about everything else)...I'll be back for the next vote.
   31. DL from MN Posted: June 24, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4165260)
Glad to have you back. I'll get 1974 up this week.

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