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Thursday, August 16, 2012

Most Meritorious Player: 1975 Ballot

Here are the specific rules for this election:
Candidate Eligibility: Any North American professional baseball player is eligible for the Most Meritorious Player (MMP) award including players in the top Negro Leagues or independent teams. Voters should consider the player’s on-field contribution to Major League Baseball (MLB) team(s) in that season only. If part of the season was spent outside MLB, that value may be considered as well. However, the player’s on-field contribution should be judged in relation to the highest level major league, not relative to a minor league. A season may include playoff or World Series games but does not include spring training or exhibition games. No credit will be given for games not played due to injury, wartime service or contract holdouts.
Ballot Length: For 1975, each voter should rank 12 players.
Voter eligibility: All voters who did not vote in the previous year’s election must post a preliminary ballot in the ballot discussion thread at least 2 days before voting ends. All voters must fill out a complete ballot. Voters must briefly explain their ballot choices. One person, one vote; anyone determined to have voted with multiple accounts will be banned and their votes will be disallowed. The MMP ballot committee has authority to exclude any ballot that does not meet these requirements.
Scoring: Points will be given in descending order with the highest-ranked player receiving 15 points, the second highest 14 points, and so on until the last player on the ballot receives 4 points. The player with the highest point total will be named the Most Meritorious Player. In case of a tie, the tiebreaker will be number of 1st place votes. If the first tiebreaker does not determine a winner the players will share the title of Most Meritorious Player.

Balloting will close at 4pm EST on 29 August 2012.

Anyone can vote, even if you do not normally participate in Hall of Merit discussions. If have never participated in an MMP election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 27 August 2012.

DL from MN Posted: August 16, 2012 at 11:00 AM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: August 16, 2012 at 11:03 AM (#4209575)
Reminder - I'm on vacation next week so I won't be able to clarify rules, etc.
   2. DL from MN Posted: August 16, 2012 at 02:06 PM (#4209727)
1975 ballot

1) Joe Morgan - clearly an outlier, ahead of everyone by a significant margin
2) Rod Carew
3) Toby Harrah - High OBP, best SS
4) Johnny Bench - full C bonus
5) Jim Palmer - top pitcher
6) Tom Seaver - top NL pitcher
7) Gene Tenace - nearly full C bonus
8) Bobby Grich - another good year for 2B
9) Frank Tanana
10) Mike Schmidt
11) Randy Jones
12) Catfish Hunter - edges out Cey, Goose and Fred Lynn

13-15) Ron Cey, Goose Gossage, Fred Lynn
16-20) Andy Messersmith, Ken Singleton, Jim Kaat, Thurman Munson, John Mayberry
   3. sunnyday2 Posted: August 17, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4210502)
1. Joe Morgan 44 WS 12 WART 168 OPS+
2. Fred Lynn 33 WS
3. John Mayberry 33 WS 167 OPS+ A surprise to me, I did not remember Big John ever being this good
4. Greg Luzinski 152 OPS+ I do remember Luzinski being this good
5. Jim Palmer 168 ERA+

6. Reggie Jackson 6.5 WAR
7. Ken Singleton 33 WS We had no idea at the time that he was this good
8. Randy Jones 7.7 WAR One hit wonder
9. Johnny Bench 30 WS
10. Rod Carew 8.2 WAR

11. Jim Rice A buddy of mine told me in 1975 that Rice would have a better career than Lynn, seemed like a radical idea at the time
12. Pete Rose The hits just keep on comin'
13. Andy Messersmith 149 ERA+
14. Ted Simmons 28 WS
15. Dave Parker 148 OPS+
   4. lieiam Posted: August 18, 2012 at 10:43 PM (#4211686)
WOW. No competition. Joe Morgan crushes the field.

1 morgan, joe 10000
2 palmer, jim 7393
3 seaver, tom 6841
4 carew, rod 6730
5 bench, johnny 6646
6 harrah, toby 6524
7 mayberry, john 6495
8 hunter, catfish 6451
9 lynn, fred 6424
10 schmidt, mike 6377
11 messersmith, andy 6289
12 tenace, gene 6231
13 grich, bobby 6095
14 jones, randy 6000
15 kaat, jim 5903
16 gossage, rich 5849
17 tanana, frank 5819
18 singleton, ken 5784
19 cey, ron 5763
20 jackson, reggie 5491
21 munson, thurman 5437
22 montefusco, john 5378
23 blyleven, bert 5330
24 parker, dave 5284
   5. bjhanke Posted: August 20, 2012 at 07:18 AM (#4212315)
This is Brock Hanke. I just got back from my second convention and am gearing up for the third, but I do have enough time right now to copy my ballot over from the discussion thread. "Charlie Hotdog" is Pete Rose. Explanations are on the discussion thread.

1. Joe Morgan
2. Fred Lynn
3. Rod Carew
4. Jim Palmer
5. John Mayberry
6. Toby Harrah
7. Catfish Hunter
8. Tom Seaver
9. Ken Singleton
10. Charlie Hotdog
11. Johnny Bench
12. Goose Gossage
   6. Qufini Posted: August 20, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4212898)
1975 Ballot

1. Joe Morgan, 2B, Cincinnati Reds: leads MLB in OPS+ with 169 and in RC with 145. +14 in fielding runs. Huge gap between Morgan and everybody else.

2. Jim Palmer, P, Baltimore Orioles: leads MLB in ERA+ with 169 while also throwing 323 innings (which is 2nd to Hunter). Another huge gap between Palmer and the rest.

3. John Mayberry, 1B, Kansas City Royals: the best position player in the AL. I surprised myself with this result but Mayberry had one of the best defensive seasons of his career (+7) while leading the league in both OPS+ and RC.

4. Andy Messersmith, P, Los Angeles Dodgers: the best pitcher in the NL. 2nd in the league in ERA+ but first in innings by a wide margin.

5. Rod Carew, 2B, Minnesota Twins. 3rd in OPS+ and in RC. Above average defense (+4) at second.

6. Catfish Hunter, P, Oakland Athletics. 144 ERA+ in 328 innings. There's not a lot separating Mayberry at #3 from Hunter at #6.

7. Johnny Bench, C, Cincinnati Reds. Another outstanding year for Johnny, second only to his teammate Joe among NL position players. 140 OPS+ and +10 fielding runs from behind the plate.

8. Fred Lynn, CF, Boston Red Sox. Surprised he ranked this low. I would have guessed that Mayberry and Lynn would have been reversed before I ran the numbers. I can see how narrative (rookie of the year tears up the league) or postseason credit would push him ahead. But with a lower positional bonus than Carew and smaller offensive numbers than Mayberry, Lynn lands third among everyday AL players and 8th overall. Lynn's the only outfielder in my top 20 (Dave Parker is next at 24).

9. Randy Jones, P, San Diego Padres. An interesting counterpart to Messersmith, 1st in ERA+ and 2nd in innings. Normally, the rate stat would win out but Messersmith's advantage in innings is pretty big.

10. Rich Gossage, RP, Chicago White Sox. I feel like I'm underrating Gossage at 10. But I also know that I'm generally more generous with relievers than the average voter.

11. Ted Simmons, C, St. Louis Cardinals. It's a very good year for catchers.

12. Toby Harrah, SS, Texas Rangers. Narrowly beats Schmidt for the last ballot spot based on playing the more demanding defensive position (though not quite as well as one might like).

13. Mike Schmidt, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies.
14. Tom Seaver, P, New York Mets.
15. Al Hrabosky, RP, St. Louis Cardinals.
16. Jim Kaat, P, Minnesota Twins.
17. Thurman Munson, C, New York Yankees.
18. Ron Cey, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers.
19. Gene Tenace, C, Oakland Athletics. The fourth catcher in my top 20. A fifth, Manny Sanguillen, just misses at 21.
20. Bobby Grich, 2B, Baltimore Orioles. Could have gone with Gaylord Perry, Sanguillen or Grich for this last spot. My gut (and homer bias) told me to go with Grich.
   7. DL from MN Posted: August 26, 2012 at 06:22 PM (#4218727)
Guess you all went on vacation this week too.
   8. Mr. C Posted: August 27, 2012 at 09:59 AM (#4219029)
1975 Ballot

Using WAR framework with reduced replacement value (WARR)

1. Joe Morgan 9.85 WARR No one even close
2. Rich Gossage 7.55 WARR
3. Tom Seaver 7.25 WARR
4. Mike Schmidt 7.20 WARR
5. Jim Kaat 7.05 WARR
6. Jim Palmer 6.65 WARR Used pitching stats to order Palmer, Hunter and Jones
7. Catfish Hunter 6.65 WARR
8. Randy Jones 6.65 WARR
9. Rod Carew 6.50 WARR
10. Toby Harrah 6.40 WARR Better hitting stats for Harrah
11. Bobby Grich 6.40 WARR
12. Johm Mayberry 6.35 WARR

The rest of the top 20
Bob Forsch
Fred Lynn
Frank Tanana
Johnny Bench
Dave Parker
Ron Cey
John Montefusco
Reggie Jackson
   9. DL from MN Posted: August 27, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4219176)
Just a reminder that first time voters should post a prelim ballot in the discussion thread by today.
   10. Kiko Sakata Posted: August 27, 2012 at 10:29 PM (#4219709)
This is mostly excerpted from comment #16 of the discussion thread. Numbers shown below are my own creation: pWins - pLosses, pWOPA, pWORL.

1. Joe Morgan, 25.5 - 15.1, 5.3, 7.2 - Morgan in #1 on my ballot for the third year in a row. I'll repeat my comment from 1973: "best player in MLB no matter how I measure it".
2. Jim Palmer, 20.3 - 12.4, 4.1, 5.6 - best pitcher in MLB by any of the measures I looked at.
3. Tom Seaver, 19.2 - 13.6, 3.5, 5.1 - a bit better than Harrah in pWOPA/pWORL, a bit below in eWOPA/eWORL. There's not a lot of separation between spots 2 - 4 on my ballot here, especially 3 & 4. I flipped Seaver and Harrah here vs. the discussion thread.
4. Toby Harrah, 21.0 - 16.3, 3.2, 5.0 - best SS in MLB, #2 in context-neutral wins above both average and replacement level.
5. Fred Lynn, 23.6 - 17.5, 2.8, 4.8 - pretty decent choice for AL MVP, even though I'd have him 3rd on my (AL-only) ballot.
6. Mike Schmidt, 20.6 - 16.8, 1.7, 3.4 - best 3B in MLB; top 5 player in eWOPA/eWORL; fares quite a bit worse when his record is tied to his team's record.
7. Randy Jones, 18.2 - 13.6, 3.0, 4.5
8. Catfish Hunter, 19.5 - 14.4, 2.7, 4.3 - Hunter's a bit better than Jones in eWOPA/eWORL; Jones is better in pWOPA/pWORL.
9. Reggie Jackson, 26.1 - 19.5, 2.8, 5.0 - best corner outfielder in the majors.
10. John Mayberry, 19.9 - 14.0, 2.3, 3.9 - best 1B in the majors.
11. Johnny Bench, 19.4 - 14.8, 2.2, 3.9 - best C in the majors.
12. Pete Rose, 22.9 - 17.5, 2.3, 4.2 - deserves a ballot slot based on pWOPA/pWORL (7th in the majors in pWORL, in fact); not based on eWOPA/eWORL. Positional flexibility (he moved to 3B this year) and a strong postseason put him on my ballot over several other contenders.
   11. DL from MN Posted: August 28, 2012 at 12:19 PM (#4220124)
Is an extension past the 2 weeks the balloting has been open going to bring more voters or should we just go with what we have tomorrow?
   12. DL from MN Posted: August 28, 2012 at 05:53 PM (#4220558)
No ballots from:

Rob Wood
fra paulo
John Murphy
   13. Mr Dashwood Posted: August 28, 2012 at 11:31 PM (#4220812)
My system applies a bespoke linear-weighted wins above average for position for batting, and my own fielding system. I also rank players and pitchers by WPA/LI. Good-hitting infielders usually get a higher ranking than they might under straight WAR, although this season I didn't find that to be the usual problem. I give some credit to being 'best at your position'. My pitching database is 'in restauro' as I tweak the fielding/pitching split, so I went with straight WSAB/3 for this year because that is the method structured most closely to my system. The top two on my ballot were obvious.

1) Joe Morgan — Dominant season in all departments. The star player on the championship team.
2) Jim Palmer — I have him ahead of everybody else except Morgan in 'Wins' as well as WPA/LI merit.

At this point I began to have trouble, because ranking by WPA/LI and my 'Wins' measure basically had the next five players tied, as a lead in one category was balanced by deficit in the other.
3) Fred Lynn
4) John Mayberry — Mayberry's big WPA/LI advantage is balanced by Lynn's advantage in 'Wins', and Lynn is more better than the second-best CF when compared to Mayberry versus the second-best 1B. Lynn also had a good postseason.
5) Catfish Hunter — Hunter has a big WPA/LI score, not at all far behind Palmer's. I find WPA/LI is a better measure of pitchers' value than of batters' because the opportunity factor is less relevant, so I moved him ahead of where his raw 'Wins' total might have put him.
6) Toby Harrah — Hit really well by any standard, did no harm with the glove and was therefore significantly better than any other shortstop in either league.
7) Rod Carew — In 'Wins', he is ahead of Lynn, Mayberry and Harrah, but he only leads Harrah in WPA/LI, and by 0.1. Faced tough competition for the accolade 'best AL 2B' from Bobby Grich, and not really close to Morgan in the NL.

The next three were clearly behind the middle five, but just as clearly ahead of everyone else.
8) Andy Messersmith
9) Randy Jones — Messersmith is carried well ahead of Tom Seaver by his bat. Jones has a slightly better 'Wins' total, but Messersmith has a big lead in WPA/LI. Jones is well ahead of Seaver in 'pitching wins'.
10) Johnny BenchThurman Munson hit a little bit better, but that could be a league effect. Bench has a small advantage in fielding, but it is close enough that given fielding metrics' lack of precision one can safely ignore it. Bench has a big advantage in WPA/LI, though. Much the same logic applies in comparing Bench with Grich.

From here on, it depends what emphasis you want to give to which elements of the player's 'score'. I could easily trade either of these two out for someone like Grich or Ted Simmons.

11) Tom Seaver — Seaver has a big WPA/LI advantage over almost everyone ahead of him in 'Wins', and is as good as or better than those near his WPA/LI score.
12) Ken Singleton — He's not the best remaining in 'Wins', nor WPA/LI, but he is the only remaining 'best at his position' player in my Top 15 by 'Wins'.
   14. OCF Posted: August 29, 2012 at 02:52 AM (#4220885)
No ballots from:

First couple of days of a new semester. No time to think. Morgan ought to be unanimous #1, but I don't have time to rank the rest of them. Carry on without me.
   15. Qufini Posted: August 29, 2012 at 09:44 AM (#4221025)
Is an extension past the 2 weeks the balloting has been open going to bring more voters or should we just go with what we have tomorrow?

I don't think that 8 ballots is enough. If we get 4 or 5 more in before the end of the day, then I think we have a satisfactory result. If we don't, then I would agree with an extension
   16. DL from MN Posted: August 29, 2012 at 10:05 AM (#4221049)
I agree that 8 ballots is rather paltry. However, I can't just hold an election open forever if nobody says "Hey, I'll vote if you give me a few days". Balloting has already been open a week longer than usual.
   17. DL from MN Posted: August 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM (#4221058)
I'll add that this has not been a particularly controversial election. The MMP, Top AL pitcher and Top NL pitcher have a pretty solid consensus at the moment. The most interesting "decision" left to make is who the top position player was in the AL.
   18. Rob_Wood Posted: August 29, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4221372)
My 1975 MMP ballot:

1. Joe Morgan - blows everyone away, a season for the ages
2. Rod Carew - great offensive year in his last season at 2B
3. Fred Lynn - all around great season (ROY, etc.)
4. Tom Seaver - last great season as a Met
5. John Mayberry - by far his best season
6. Jim Palmer - led AL in ERA, ERA+, wins, shutouts, and win value (by a mile)
7. Johnny Bench - best catcher in majors, even in a "down" year
8. Ted Simmons - a catcher who hits 332 with decent power is a great player
9. Toby Harrah - probably the best season of a very underrated career
10. Andy Messersmith - led NL in IP, GS, CG, and shutouts
11. Rich Gossage - a hidden gem of season with White Sox
12. Ron Cey - the last slot could have gone to many
   19. DL from MN Posted: August 29, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4221457)
Murphy asked for an extension and pointed out I forgot to ping the Yahoo group. Election will go until next Tuesday which gives people the entire holiday weekend.
   20. Mr Dashwood Posted: August 29, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4221475)
Putting up the results thread next Tuesday might not be a good day for me. More importantly, Wednesdays this term are not at all good for me. I will not be able to post any results thread on a Wednesday for the next three months and one week. (Four-hour class Wednesday nights.)

I don't mind if people don't mind waiting; but you all ought to know.
   21. DL from MN Posted: August 29, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4221546)
I don't think there is much suspense in the results this year. However, I'm willing to change to Thursday ballot closings if that helps you out. I just don't want to end on a day that could be part of a long weekend.
   22. bjhanke Posted: September 03, 2012 at 10:37 AM (#4225454)
This is off topic, but related. Can someone tell me how to bookmark an article here? I have two articles bookmarked, but have apparently forgotten how to do it any more, or how to remove the two I have. I've been unable to find the info here, doubtless because I am looking in all the wrong places. So, please, can someone help? Thanks, - Brock Hanke
   23. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 03, 2012 at 06:16 PM (#4225718)
1975 Ballot (no extra credit for postseason efforts):

1) Joe Morgan - Best ML player by a mile.
2) Jim Palmer - Best ML pitcher.
3) Ken Singleton - Best AL player.
4) Catfish Hunter - Not that far off from Palmer.
5) Rich Gossage - Best ML reliever.
6) Gene Tenace - Best ML catcher
7) Toby Harrah - Best ML shortstop
8) Johnny Bench - Best NL catcher.
9) Rod Carew - Best ML second baseman.
10) Andy Messersmith - Best NL pitcher.
11) Fred Lynn - Best ML center fielder
12) Bobby Grich - narrowly pushes past Tom Seaver.
   24. DL from MN Posted: September 04, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4226247)
Election closes at 4ET today.
   25. DL from MN Posted: September 04, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4226525)
Election is closed.

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