The writers didn't do too bad of a job this year. Morgan/Lynn, Palmer/Seaver

I was a hold-out on Joe Morgan for the last two elections (I voted for third basemen Darrell Evans and Mike Schmidt instead) but there's no question he'll be first on my ballot this time around. 1st in OPS+ and Runs Created by large margins while playing excellent defense at a demanding position. Right now, the gap between Morgan at #1 and the #2 player looks to be about as big as the gap between the #2 and the #7.

Here's my prelim for 1975

1. Joe Morgan, 2B, Cincinnati Reds: leads MLB in OPS+ with 169 and in RC with 145. +14 in fielding runs. Huge gap between Morgan and everybody else.

2. Jim Palmer, P, Baltimore Orioles: leads MLB in ERA+ with 169 while also throwing 323 innings (which is 2nd to Hunter). Another huge gap between Palmer and the rest.

3. John Mayberry, 1B, Kansas City Royals: the best position player in the AL. I surprised myself with this result but Mayberry had one of the best defensive seasons of his career (+7) while leading the league in both OPS+ and RC.

4. Andy Messersmith, P, Los Angeles Dodgers: the best pitcher in the NL. 2nd in the league in ERA+ but first in innings by a wide margin.

5. Rod Carew, 2B, Minnesota Twins. 3rd in OPS+ and in RC. Above average defense (+4) at second.

6. Catfish Hunter, P, Oakland Athletics. 144 ERA+ in 328 innings. There's not a lot separating Mayberry at #3 from Hunter at #6.

7. Johnny Bench, C, Cincinnati Reds. Another outstanding year for Johnny, second only to his teammate Joe among NL position players. 140 OPS+ and +10 fielding runs from behind the plate.

8. Fred Lynn, CF, Boston Red Sox. Surprised he ranked this low. I would have guessed that Mayberry and Lynn would have been reversed before I ran the numbers. I can see how narrative (rookie of the year tears up the league) or postseason credit would push him ahead. But with a lower positional bonus than Carew and smaller offensive numbers than Mayberry, Lynn lands third among everyday AL players and 8th overall. Lynn's the only outfielder in my top 20 (Dave Parker is next at 24).

9. Randy Jones, P, San Diego Padres. An interesting counterpart to Messersmith, 1st in ERA+ and 2nd in innings. Normally, the rate stat would win out but Messersmith's advantage in innings is pretty big.

10. Rich Gossage, RP, Chicago White Sox. I feel like I'm underrating Gossage at 10. But I also know that I'm generally more generous with relievers than the average voter.

11. Ted Simmons, C, St. Louis Cardinals. It's a very good year for catchers.

12. Toby Harrah, SS, Texas Rangers. Narrowly beats Schmidt for the last ballot spot based on playing the more demanding defensive position (though not quite as well as one might like).

13. Mike Schmidt, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies.
14. Tom Seaver, P, New York Mets.
15. Al Hrabosky, RP, St. Louis Cardinals.
16. Jim Kaat, P, Minnesota Twins.
17. Thurman Munson, C, New York Yankees.
18. Ron Cey, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers.
19. Gene Tenace, C, Oakland Athletics. The fourth catcher in my top 20. A fifth, Manny Sanguillen, just misses at 21.
20. Bobby Grich, 2B, Baltimore Orioles. Could have gone with Gaylord Perry, Sanguillen or Grich for this last spot. My gut (and homer bias) told me to go with Grich.

The usual RA+ equivalent pitching analysis. League runs per game were back to what they had been in 1973: 4.13 in the NL, 4.32 in the AL. AL managers continued to use the fact that they didn't have to pinch hit for pitcher to enable prodigious inning loads for some pitchers. Virtual 20 game winners were still commonplace. And free agency arrived with a splash, with Catfish Hunter jumping to the Yankes and having a great year for them. (But what does this have to do with Frank Tanana?)

NL:
Tom Seaver 21-10 (OK hitter)
Randy Jones 20-12
John Montefusco 17-10 (bad hitter)
Carl Morton 19-14
Jim Barr 16-11 (bad hitter)
Bob Forsch 15-10 (great hitter)
Phil Niekro 17-13
Al Hrabosky 8-3 (12-5 with inherited runner adjustment)
AL:
Jim Palmer 25-11
Catfish Hunter 24-13
Frank Tanana 19-10
Bert Blyleven 19-12
Jim Kaat 20-14
Steve Busby 18-11
Gaylord Perry 19-15
Rich Gossage 12-3 (19-6 with inherited runner adjustment)

Forsch batted .308/.341/.462 in 88 PA. On top of him being merely a good pitcher, that certainly doesn't make him Seaver. But he's worth looking at anyway.

Any other relief pitchers I should run through this system?

What was the greatest single season of the pre-closer era of relief pitching? We're in the middle of a run of candidate years. At the moment, I would rank Hiller's 1973 slightly ahead of Gossage's 1975. One of the distinctions: Gossage in '75 was very good against inherited runners at 27/99, but Hiller in '73 was out of this world against inherited runners at 13/84.

Correction/addition to post 4:

Andy Messersmith 24-12

Appears to be ahead of Seaver by this measure.

We're in the middle of a run of candidate years.

I was thinking the same thing. We had sporadic support for relievers throughout the '60s but it's been pretty consistent in the '70s with McGraw, Marshall, Hiller and now Gossage likely receiving support.

I agree with you that I'd take Hiller's '73 as the best so far. The vote at the time bears that out with Hiller finishing 6th overall (no other reliever has cracked the top ten). Hiller had a 283 ERA+ (1.44 actual) in 125 innings. That beats Gossage's 212 (1.84 actual) in 141.

However, after an off-year in '76, we get a couple of great seasons in '77 from Gossage again and Sutter. Gossage's '77 is a 244 ERA+ in 133 innings (1.62 ERA). Sutter was 328 (1.34 actual) in 107.

I think I prefer Sutter's '77 to Hiller's '73, though BB-ref disagrees (they see Sutter as worth 6.5 WAR in '77, Hiller worth 7.9 in '73 and Gossage with 8.1 in '75).

Billboard Top ten singles 1975
1 Captain and Tennille Love Will Keep Us Together
2 Glen Campbell Rhinestone Cowboy
3 Elton John Philadelphia Freedom
4 Freddy Fender Before The Next Teardrop Falls
5 Frankie Valli My Eyes Adored You
6 Earth, Wind and Fire Shining Star
7 David Bowie Fame
8 Neil Sedaka Laughter In The Rain
9 Eagles One Of These Nights
10John Denver Thank God I'm A Country Boy

(Kung Foo fighting gets an honorable mention at #14)

Any other relief pitchers I should run through this system?

Not really.

What was the greatest single season of the pre-closer era of relief pitching?

Most WAR for RP in a season. In the past 25 years, the best is 2006 Papelbon with 4.9 WAR.

Was it Smokey Joe Wood that said, of all the players he'd seen between Tris Speaker and Rickey Henderson, that Seventies Fred Lynn was the very best?
"Don't think much of him now" (mid-80's?), "but for a while there he was the best." Something like that.

Wood was so quoted in one of Roger Angell's books.

1975 preliminary

1. Joe Morgan 9.85 WARR No on close to Morgan this year
2. Goose Gossage 7.55 WARR A great season as a reliever, but did so in front of a poor defense in a hitter's park
3. Tom Seaver 7.25 WARR
4. Mike Schmidt 7.20 WARR Excellent hitting; great fielding
5. Jim Kaat 7.05 WARR In the "battle" of the three Jim's, Kaat is certainly third best when you look at only the raw numbers. However, he pitched in front of one of the poorest fielding teams in a hitter's park; whereas Hunter and Palmer both pitched in front of one of the top three fielding teams in the AL in a pitcher's park.
6. Catfish Hunter 6.7 WARR Hunter and Palmer are basically the same. Will have to do some more thinking before the final ballot.
7. Jim Palmer 6.7 WARR
8. Randy Jones 6.65 WARR
9. Rod Carew 6.5 WARR
10. Bobby Grich 6.4 WARR
11. Toby Harrah 6.4 WARR
12. John Mayberry 6.35 WARR

The rest of the top 20
Bob Forsch
Fred Lynn
Frank Tanana
John Montefusco
Johnny Bench
Dave Parker
Ron Cey
Reggie Jackson

My comment about the three Jim's should say that Kaat is certainly the "third" best when you look at only the raw numbers.

Hi. It's Brock Hanke. I know this is awfully early, but I need to post up my 1975 final ballot now. Convention season is about to start for me, and it consumes almost all my time in August, so I sincerely doubt I'll have any time to improve on this before the voting deadline. So please just copy this one over to the ballot thread when that one comes up.

This wasn't an easy ballot. I try to use, as a starting point, whatever consensus emerges from the discussion thread headers, listing Win Shares and WAR for the leading candidates. This year, consensus was nigh-impossible. WAR has several pitchers (Gossage, Seaver, Kaat, Tanana) ranked quite highly who Win Shares doesn't think are in the top twenty. On the other hand, Win Shares has Singleton, Rose, and Tenace all in the top ten, while WAR doesn't have them in the top twenty.

The tipping point for me was Pete Rose. I despised him as a player, calling him Charlie Hotdog, so if I have a bias, it would be against Rose. But I was forced to admit to myself that I agreed much more with Win Shares' placement of him as the #7 player for the year than I did WAR's placement of him at 36th (so low that I need to add that these rankings are only among players in the discussion thread header). I ended up ranking him above 12th only because he did play very very well in both rounds of the postseason, winning a deserved World Series MVP (if the Bosox had won, the MVP would have likely been Tiant).

Joe Morgan and John Mayberry also got extra credit for dominating their positions. Morgan hardly needs it; this may be the very best season we have voted upon so far in this entire project. Mayberry got moved up a couple of places because of the domination.

The highest-ranking player by WAR who did not get my vote was Jim Kaat (#6 in WAR, #32 in WS). The highest-ranking Win Shares player who did not get a vote from me was Gene Tenace (#10 WS, #29 WAR). THAT is lack of consensus.

Anyway, without further ado, here's my list. If I don't correct it before the voting deadline, please consider it to be my final ballot. As I said, I have no idea whether I would find time to post up later at any time that I could be sure I would remember to do that, so here it is now:

1. Joe Morgan
2. Fred Lynn
3. Rod Carew
4. Jim Palmer
5. John Mayberry
6. Toby Harrah
7. Catfish Hunter
8. Tom Seaver
9. Ken Singleton
10. Charlie Hotdog
11. Johnny Bench
12. Goose Gossage

Here's my preliminary ballot. I have created my own set of Player won-lost records. I calculate these records two ways: tied to team records and context neutral. I look at both sets of records, with a bit of a bias toward the records tied to team records (what I call pWins). I look at players relative to both average (what I call WOPA) and replacement level (WORL). I also give bonus points to players for being the best player in the majors at their position.

Here are top 25 lists for the 1975 major leagues. These numbers include postseason games - weighting postseason games the same as regular-season games: pWins, eWins.

Numbers shown below are pWins - pLosses, pWOPA, pWORL

1. Joe Morgan, 25.5 - 15.1, 5.3, 7.2 - Morgan in #1 on my ballot for the third year in a row. I'll repeat my comment from 1973: "best player in MLB no matter how I measure it".
2. Jim Palmer, 20.3 - 12.4, 4.1, 5.6 - best pitcher in MLB by any of the measures I looked at.
3. Toby Harrah, 21.0 - 16.3, 3.2, 5.0 - best SS in MLB, #2 in context-neutral wins above both average and replacement level.
4. Tom Seaver, 19.2 - 13.6, 3.5, 5.1 - a bit better than Harrah in pWOPA/pWORL, a bit below in eWOPA/eWORL. There's not a lot of separation between spots 2 - 4 on my ballot here, especially 3 & 4. I might flip Seaver and Harrah in my final ballot.
5. Fred Lynn, 23.6 - 17.5, 2.8, 4.8 - pretty decent choice for AL MVP, even though I'd have him 3rd on my (AL-only) ballot.
6. Randy Jones, 18.2 - 13.6, 3.0, 4.5
7. Catfish Hunter, 19.5 - 14.4, 2.7, 4.3 - Hunter's a bit better than Jones in eWOPA/eWORL; Jones is better in pWOPA/pWORL.
8. Mike Schmidt, 20.6 - 16.8, 1.7, 3.4 - best 3B in MLB; top 5 player in eWOPA/eWORL; fares quite a bit worse when his record is tied to his team's record. For some reason, he was particularly un-"clutch" in 1975 (overall OPS of .890, OPS w/ runners on of .826, OPS in "late and close" of .771). This was fairly unusual for Schmidt's career in general, but it really happened, so he slides down a couple of slots on my ballot for now. I might push him ahead of Jones and Hunter for my final ballot, though.
9. Reggie Jackson, 26.1 - 19.5, 2.8, 5.0 - best corner outfielder in the majors.
10. John Mayberry, 19.9 - 14.0, 2.3, 3.9 - best 1B in the majors.
11. Johnny Bench, 19.4 - 14.8, 2.2, 3.9 - best C in the majors.

I'm not entirely sure who I'm going to put in the last ballot slot. The candidates include the following (roughly in the order I'm considering them).

Goose Gossage, 12.6 - 7.1, 2.5, 3.7 - best RP in the majors. He's just off-ballot even in his best stat (13th in MLB in pWOPA). I'm leaning toward putting him in the last ballot slot based on the "best XX in the majors" standard and because he seems to score higher in other stats (e.g., WAR).
Bobby Grich, 19.5 - 15.8, 2.4, 4.1
Rod Carew, 18.5 - 15.7, 1.7, 3.3 - Carew/Grich would be best 2B in MLB if not for that Morgan fellow. Grich beats Carew in pWOPA/pWORL; Carew beats Grich in eWOPA/eWORL
Thurman Munson, 20.2 - 15.3, 2.7, 4.4 - top 10 in pWOPA/pWORL, well off-ballot (not top 25) in eWOPA/eWORL has him off-ballot for now; sort of the opposite of Schmidt.
Ron Cey, 23.0 - 17.0, 2.7, 4.6 - same story as Munson, top 10 in pWOPA/pWORL, off-ballot (~25th) in eWOPA/eWORL - I listed Munson ahead of Cey here because he's a catcher.
Andy Messersmith, 20.1 - 18.0, 1.9, 3.7 - reverse of Munson/Cey, top 10 in eWOPA/eWORL, outside top 20 in pWOPA/pWORL
Pete Rose, 22.9 - 17.5, 2.3, 4.2 - deserves a ballot slot based on pWOPA/pWORL (7th in the majors in pWORL, in fact); not based on eWOPA/eWORL.
John Montefusco, 16.9 - 12.8, 2.6, 4.1 - I first became a really big baseball fan just after this (around 1977); I love when guys show up in my consideration set who I only vaguely remember as being fairly mediocre players (Chris Speier a few years ago, Jim Rooker for me last year, now "the Count").

1975 prelim (no postseason credit yet)

1) Joe Morgan - he blows everyone away this year
2) Rod Carew
3) Toby Harrah
4) Johnny Bench
5) Jim Palmer - pitchers don't score that well in 1975 for Dan R
6) Gene Tenace - standard C bonus, will have to see if he deserves a full C bonus or not
7) Bobby Grich
8) Tom Seaver
9) Frank Tanana
10) Mike Schmidt
11) Randy Jones
12) Catfish Hunter
13-15) Ron Cey, Goose Gossage, Andy Messersmith
16-20) Ken Singleton, Jim Kaat, Thurman Munson, Fred Lynn, John Mayberry
21-23) Steve Busby, Darrell Evans, Phil Niekro

Dan R's numbers on Fred Lynn BWAA2 4.1, BRWAA2 -0.1, FWAA 0.5, Rep2 -1.6 WARP2 6.1 - top CF in the league but apparently CF replacement level was really high, not much different than corner OF. Examples of replacement CF in 1975 - Paul Blair, Cito Gaston, Mickey Stanley, Alan Bannister

Fred Lynn not in the top 20 gives sabremetrics a bad name. You wouldn't rate them thusly if you had seen him at the time. No question this year: Morgan, then Lynn, then everybody else.

Thank god for Philadelphia Freedom and One of These Nights. Otherwise it was the revenge of the nerds in terms of the billboard charts anyway. But one of the greatest records of all time came out: One Size Fits All by FZ. So all else is forgiven.

Otherwise it was the revenge of the nerds in terms of the billboard charts anyway. But one of the greatest records of all time came out: One Size Fits All by FZ. So all else is forgiven.

One of my top 5 all-time records hit #1 on the Billboard 200.

Fred Lynn was a huge story in 1975. That he chose MLB over the NFL (he'd played for John McKay at USC) was a feather in baseball's cap at a time when football was dominant.

Was it Smokey Joe Wood that said, of all the players he'd seen between Tris Speaker and Rickey Henderson, that Seventies Fred Lynn was the very best?
"Don't think much of him now" (mid-80's?), "but for a while there he was the best." Something like that.

Wood was so quoted in one of Roger Angell's books.

Actually, it's from Bill James' first Historical Abstract, and it was said by an anonymous elderly fan at Fenway in the early 1980s.

I think you guys are underrating speed/alertness on the basepaths. Would probably put Lynn ahead of Mayberry on most of these tickets. Also Geo. Brett is excellent by this same measure and is almost certainly underrated on the WAR scale. I am unclear as to how exactly WAR converts runs to wins, so I hesistate to say by how much at this pt. Claudell washington w/ adequate credit given to speed might be on the same ranking as Brett.

Speaking of Dylan would be worth getting tickets for his fall tour? I went to see him at WOlftrap maybe 15 years ago and he was barely understandable. Is his voice listenable at this pt?

Also for Brock. I appreciate your historical take on the game, but why were so down on Rose? Why did you think his running full out stuff was an act? (which you mentioned in another thread). It seemed to me it set a good example and is also the kind of thing that would keep a player focused on his own game. I dont really see a down side but you have a different take and I'd like to hear more about it. .

Speaking of Dylan would be worth getting tickets for his fall tour? I went to see him at WOlftrap maybe 15 years ago and he was barely understandable. Is his voice listenable at this pt?

If you're a fan I would definitely go; I mean who knows how long he is going to keep performing. I saw Dylan a few years ago for the first time since the mid-seventies and, while his voice was "worse", it never was a great voice to start with. The chance to see an actual legend perform doesn't come around very often.

But was his voice recognizable? I guess I'd go if he sounds at least something like the guy we remember. What's clouding it is that I vowed not to pay to see him again because the first time was in the 70s; we saw him in Pittsburgh when he was doing the Saved tour. Which we didnt know he was going the born again rout for that entire show (we were kids) and so felt kinda gypped. I think he did everything from that album and nothing classic, it was probably pretty good if you liked that music which I think recieved critical praise. Perhaps I caught him on a bad night in the 90s? But if is like that, then I dont want any part of him.

Sunday -

Basically, I thought that what Pete Rose was doing was not really of any help to his team in winning ballgames, but was an enormous help to Pete Rose in getting on TV, and I don't think much of that. It looked like hot dogging taken to the absolute limit. I was aware that this might just be my bias, and maybe Pete really was getting some team value out of running out walks and running to the on-base circle, etc. So I focused, for a few games on TV and here in STL on which way he turned when running out a walk. He never turned left, nor looked back to see if he should turn left. He only turned right. Well, the only real help that running out walks provides to a team's winning ballgames is when, which probably happens about once a decade to a batter, ball 4 is a wild pitch and you might be able to take second. But, to do that, you have to turn left at 1B, not right. When Pete didn't even make an effort to see whether he could take second, I felt confirmed in thinking that what he did was shameless self-promotion at the level of REGGIE!, except that Rose had found a way to hotdog that the fans liked to watch. Good salesman. Not helping his team win ballgames. So I tend to think of Rose the same way I think of The Wave. A damned nuisance when you're trying to watch a ballgame. That's very harsh, but Pete's personality after his playing career does kind of shore up the idea that he's an attention hog.

Another part of it was what the media's take was on it. Everyone was quick to say that this was the way ballplayers SHOULD play ballgames. Well, that's true, if you want to run yourself out of gas by late August. Rose got away with it because of the same thing that allowed him to pile up career records: He had the constitution of a horse. He could run and run all day, play every day, and almost never get hurt, and I don't think was ever hurt in any way that diminished his skills for the rest of his career. I don't want to underrate that. Rose did have a fantastic constitution; he's a true outlier in that regard. If he hadn't had that, he would never have been able to catch Ty Cobb, because he'd have had to play until he was 50 to pay off the stays on the DL that shorten everyone else's careers. But he almost never went on the DL. That was his real superstar skill, not running everywhere as if he were trying to escape from the stadium. - Brock

thanks for sharing.

thanks for sharing.

No problem. I saw Dylan at an indoor venue, which likely makes a difference in the sound quality. I can remember attending outdoor concerts at which the sound quality, especially the vocals, were virtually unintelligible. The Dylan concert I saw back in the seventies was part of his tour with The Band, so it pre-dated the whole saved thing; at the one I saw a few years ago he played a good mixture of his classic "hits" and more recents songs. As always, YMMV.

Big Red Machine, 1975, Pete Rose's value.
In 74, the Reds won 98 games; too bad LA won 102. Cinci had a great offense, good pitching+def.
Third base was a revolving door. Driessen could hit but not field. Bench started 30 (!) games there. Others played some 3B too.
George Foster was tryinig to break into an OF of Rose/Geronimo/Griffey.
In 75, they became The Machine. They scored so many runs it was silly. Why? Because Foster played eveyr day, and Driessen became the valuable sub at many spots. How did they do this? Rose moved to third base, at not a young age, a position he had not played before.

So who should get the credit for creating a way for the team to succeed?

who should get the credit for creating a way for the team to succeed?

Sparky Anderson

Survey of postseason credit
NLCS

Player G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS 
Bench 3  13  1  1  0  0  0  0  1  6  .077  .143  .077  .220     1  0
Concepcion 3  11  2  5  0  0  1  1  1  2  .455  .500  .727  1.227  2  0  
Foster 3  11  3  4  0  0  0  0  1  2  .364  .417  .364  .780  1  0
Morgan 3  11  2  3  3  0  0  1  2  2  .273  .429  .545  .974  4  0
Rose 3  14  3  5  0  0  1  2  0  2  .357  .357  .571  .929  0  0  

Parker 3  10  2  0  0  0  0  0  1  3  .000  .167  .000  .167  0  0  
Sanguillen 3  12  0  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  .167  .167  .167  .333  0  0
Stennett 3  14  0  3  0  0  0  0  0  1  .214  .214  .214  .429  

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Reuss 1  1  13.50  0  1  0  0  2.2  4  4  4  1  3.000

Nobody from Pittsburgh is getting postseason credit...

Survey of postseason credit
ALCS

Player G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS 
Lynn 3  11  1  4  1  0  0  3  0  0  .364  .364  .455  .818  0  0

Reggie 3  12  1  5  0  0  1  3  0  2  .417  .417  .667  1.083 0  0
Tenace 3  9  0  0  0  0  0  0  3  2  .000  .250  .000  .250  0  0

Survey of postseason credit
WS

Player G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS 
Bench 7  29  5  6  2  0  1  4  2  4  .207  .258  .379  .637  0  0
Concepcion 7  28  3  5  1  0  1  4  0  1  .179  .200  .321  .521  3  0
Foster 7  29  1  8  1  0  0  2  1  1  .276  .300  .310  .610    1  1
Morgan 7  27  4  7  1  0  0  3  5  1  .259  .364  .296  .660  2  1
PRose 7  27  3  10  1  1  0  2  5  1  .370  .485  .481  .966  0  0

Looking over Fred Lynn the only knock against him I can see is he only played 145 games. I can't justify Ken Singleton over Lynn, especially when you figure in the hot postseason. Was Lynn hurt or did his manager take a while to warm up to him?

On the postseason - Rose deserves some recognition but it isn't enough to get him on my ballot. Morgan doesn't need any more help at the top. Nobody else on my prelim really gets a boost other than Lynn and it's only enough to move him to 15th.

Rose deserves some recognition but it isn't enough to get him on my ballot.

Between the postseason and the positional flexibility argument laid out in #27, I think I'm leaning toward giving Rose my last ballot slot.

I think you guys are underrating speed/alertness on the basepaths. Would probably put Lynn ahead of Mayberry on most of these tickets.

I took a look at baserunning numbers for Lynn and Mayberry. Lynn is better than Mayberry over the course of his career but neither player added much value on the basepaths in 1975. Lynn had 10 stolen bases and 5 caught stealing which is about the break even point. Mayberry had 5 stolen bases and 3 caught stealing which is a similar percentage in half the number of attempts (he'd have to be 5 and 2.5 to be completely even). Lynn was more likely to take an extra base as a runner, 47 to 38%, but he was also more likely to run into an out, 12 to 9. For 1975, BB-ref has Lynn as -2 baserunning and Mayberry as -1.

Was Lynn hurt or did his manager take a while to warm up to him?

Part of this was the Red Sox played only 160 games; two rainouts were never made up. Actually, it took less than a week for Lynn to get going. After going 0-4 in the season's first two games he was benched for two games. Then he started hitting and played every Boston inning for the next 3+ weeks.

Lynn started 140 games in 1975. Only Burleson and Yaz started more games in the field for the Bosox. While Lynn never missed an extended period in 1975, with his all-out style of play he was always nursing some minor ache. With two other young CF on the team (Rick Miller and Juan Beniquez) it was easy to give Freddie a day off when necessary.

His longest inactive streak began on July 4, when Lynn was replaced after five innings in a 1-1 tie game. Then he did not start in
Boston's next five games, although he did play in two of those as a PR/CF and a PH. Lynn was also rested four times in September when the division race was well in hand.

Lynn was also rested four times in September when the division race was well in hand.

Based on that nugget it would be difficult to argue NOT giving him postseason credit. They gave him 4 days off so he could play 3 games in October.

Prelim

1. Joe Morgan 44 WS 12 WART 168 OPS+
2. Fred Lynn 33 WS
3. John Mayberry 33 WS 167 OPS+ A surprise to me, I did not remember Big John ever being this good
4. Greg Luzinski 152 OPS+ I do remember Luzinski being this good
5. Jim Palmer 168 ERA+

6. Reggie Jackson 6.5 WAR
7. Ken Singleton 33 WS We had no idea at the time that he was this good
8. Randy Jones 7.7 WAR One hit wonder
9. Johnny Bench 30 WS
10. Rod Carew 8.2 WAR

11. Jim Rice A buddy of mine told me in 1975 that Rice would have a better career than Lynn, seemed like a radical idea at the time
12. Pete Rose The hits just keep on comin'
13. Andy Messersmith 149 ERA+
14. Ted Simmons 28 WS
15. Dave Parker 148 OPS+

I have seen Dylan twice--the Budokan tour in '79 (A+) and again in the early '80 (D). I have no expectation that he is ever going to play an A+ concert again. I would expect something closer to a D. And of course he plays these gigantic venues. I'm planning on missing his fall tour. And trust me I am a big big fan including of Blood on the Tracks. I just (last Saturday night) saw a group of very very solid Minneapolis musicians who did a 2-night stand as the Blood on the Tracks Band Live Tribute to Dylan, which was terrific.

Looking over the 1975 awards voting leads to some strange results.

1) Why did that many people think Fingers was better than Gossage in both MVP and CYA voting? Gossage had more innings, more strikeouts, more saves and his ERA was run lower. What was the background story that made Fingers look that much better than his numbers to all those voters? Fingers somehow scored two 1st place MVP votes and two 1st place CYA votes.

2) George Brett above Toby Harrah? Harrah outhit Brett and played SS.

3) Mike Schmidt leads the league in HR and finishes 16th. Luzinski hits about the same and finishes 2nd. Batting average trumps defense.

1) Why did that many people think Fingers was better than Gossage in both MVP and CYA voting? Gossage had more innings, more strikeouts, more saves and his ERA was run lower. What was the background story that made Fingers look that much better than his numbers to all those voters? Fingers somehow scored two 1st place MVP votes and two 1st place CYA votes.

I suspect the answer is in the standings. Fingers' A's finished 1st with the best record in the AL. Gossage's White Sox finished next to last, 22 and a 1/2 games out of a playoff spot.

I think coming off a World Series MVP has something to do with the results for Fingers also.

I'm going to open the balloting thread early and go on vacation all of next week.

1975 Albums of note

Blood on the Tracks - Bob Dylan
Basement Tapes - Bob Dylan and the Band
Red Headed Stranger - Willie Nelson
Radio-Activity - Kraftwerk
Nighthawks at the Diner - Tom Waits
Born To Run - Bruce Springsteen
Young Americans - David Bowie
Physical Graffiti - Led Zeppelin
Horses - Patti Smith
The Who By Numbers - The Who
TNT - AC/DC
Wish You Were Here - Pink Floyd
Another Green World - Brian Eno
Pieces of the Sky - Emmylou Harris
Expensive #### - Anikulapo Kuti & Africa '70
Welcome to my Nightmare - Alice Cooper
Tonight's the Night - Neil Young and Crazy Horse
Neu! '75 - Neu!
Dreamin My Dreams - Waylon Jennings
One Size Fits All - Frank Zappa & the Mothers of Invention
Tommy - Soundtrack
Sabotage - Black Sabbath
Why Can't We Be Friends - WAR
Metal Machine Music - Lou Reed
Alive! - KISS

1975 is another poor year of music for me... but i do have a favorite and I'm glad to see it on your (DL from MN) list above:
Patti Smith- Horses

Here are the starting pitcher leaders in Win Values for 1975. Win Values is a stat I developed to evaluate starting pitchers on a game-by-game basis based upon how many runs they gave up and how many runs their team scored relative to a league-average starting pitcher.

NL
1. Tom Seaver 4.7 wins
2. Andy Messersmith 4.5
3. John Montefusco 4.3
4. Randy Jones 3.8
5. Jerry Reuss 3.7
6. Don Sutton 3.0
7. Don Gullett 2.8
8. Burt Hooton 2.5
9. Doug Rau 1.9
10. Bob Forsch 1.9

AL
1. Jim Palmer 7.1
2. Jim Kaat 3.4
3. Catfish Hunter 3.4
4. Steve Busby 3.1
5. Frank Tanana 2.9
6. Bert Blyleven 2.4
7. Dennis Eckersley 2.3
8. Mike Torrez 2.2
9. Roger Moret 2.1
10. Ed Figueroa 1.9

Rob: I suppose it's worth looking through your list and then through my list in post 4 (corrected 6) above. There are some broad similarities. I'm not all that sure that Palmer should have quite that large a gap to everyone else.

One question (possibly relevant only to Forsch): did you do anything at all with the pitcher's own hitting?

Rob's method may assume all defenses are created equal; endowed by their managers with certain unalienable qualities; that among these are range, hands, and the pursuit of baseballs.

My win values method does not consider a pitcher's own hitting and, as Tom mentions, assumes average defenses.

Best LPs of 1975

1. One Size Fits All--Frank Zappa. FZ is my all-time favorite musician and this is my all-time favorite Zappa record. Inca Roads and the 2 Sofas are among his finest songs.

2. Born to Run--Bruce Springsteen. Seems like a long, long time ago that Bruce was the future of rock 'n' roll. But seriously, he was that good.

3. Blood On the Tracks--Bob Dylan. One of his top 4-5.

4. Still Crazy After All These Years--Paul Simon
5. Jesse’s Jig and Other Favorites--Steve Goodman. A great, totally underrated talent.
6. Prisoner in Disguise--Linda Ronstadt
7. The Koln Concert--Keith Jarrett
8. Captain Fantastic and the Brown Dirt Cowboy--Elton John. And I am not particularly an Elton John fan. But this record hit the spot.
9. Abandoned Luncheonette--Darryl Hall and John Oates
10. Modern Times--Al Stewart

11. Good Ole Boys--Randy Newman
12. Will O’ the Wisp--Leon Russell. Back to the Island remains a classic.
13. Beautiful Loser--Bob Seger
14. The Last Record Album--Little Feat
15. Katie Lied--Steely Dan
16. The Stamp Album--Climax Blues Band
17. Crisis? What Crisis?--Supertramp
18. Home Plate --Bonnie Raitt
19. Physical Graffiti--Led Zeppelin
20. Breezy Stories--Danny O’Keefe

Best Songs

1. Sofa No. 2--Frank Zappa
2. Dance with Me--Orleans
3. Inca Roads--Frank Zappa
4. Born to Run--Bruce Springsteen
5. Back to the Island--Leon Russell
6. Lily Rosemary and the Jack of Hearts--Bob Dylan
7. Thunder Road--Bruce Springsteen
8. Prisoner in Disguise--Linda Ronstadt
9. Doctor Wu--Steely Dan
10. Mr. President, Have Pity on the Working Man--Randy Newman. A song that ought to be resurrected in the 21C.

11. Philadelphia Freedom--Elton John
12. Silver Blue--Linda Ronstadt
13. The Dark and Rolling Sea--Al Stewart
14. Tenth Avenue Freezeout--Bruce Springsteen
15. Simple Twist of Fate--Bob Dylan
16. Birmingham--Randy Newman
17. Spoon River--Steve Goodman
18. Tangled Up In Blue--Bob Dylan
19. The Spirit Returning--Climax Blues Band
20. Kashmir--Led Zeppelin

Prelim (no extra credit for postseason efforts):
1) Joe Morgan
2) Jim Palmer
3) Ken Singleton
4) Catfish Hunter
5) Rich Gossage
6) Gene Tenace
7) Toby Harrah
8) Johnny Bench
9) Rod Carew
10) Andy Messersmith
11) Fred Lynn
12) Bobby Grich

Just so people don't wonder - only people who didn't vote last year are required to post a prelim.

In other words, "Get those ballots in, guys."

Just so people don't wonder - only people who didn't vote last year are required to post a prelim.

I know, Dan, but since I use the stats above, I like to make a prelim first here and then move it to the ballot thread.