hot topics

1978 ballot
1) Ron Guidry - not really that close, good postseason too
2) Phil Niekro - in the midst of leading the league in batters faced 3 straight years
3) Mike Caldwell - career year for Caldwell
4) John Matlack - and for Matlack
5) Ted Simmons - C bonus edges him to the top position player
6) Dave Parker - nearly the same as Rice, park factors are probably the difference
7) Jim Rice - best AL position player but pitching dominates 1978
8) Dennis Eckersley - great year for pitchers
9) Ron Cey - best 3B
10) Amos Otis - great year offensively to go with his usual great defense
11) Jim Palmer
12) Roy Smalley - best SS
13) Davey Lopes - best 2B, postseason helps give him the last ballot slot

14-20) Jack Clark, Dave Goltz, Bill Madlock, Larry Bowa, Dave Concepcion, Carlton Fisk, Vida Blue

1-Ron Guidry
2-Jim Rice
3-Dave Parker
4-Phil Niekro
5-Mike Caldwell
6-Amos Otis
7-Mike Schmidt
8-Jack Clark
9-Gary Carter
10-Dennis Eckersley
11-Doug Decinces
12-Vida Blue
13-Graig Nettles

SavoyBG - please post a prelim ballot in the discussion thread and provide some information about how you ranked the players.

Here's my ballot. I believe it's the same as my prelim:

1 9208 Ron Guidry
2 8961 Phil Niekro
3 8496 Jim Rice
4 8388 Dave Parker
5 7665 Mike Caldwell
6 7282 Amos Otis
7 6933 Ted Simmons
8 6809 Carlton Fisk
9 6572 Doug DeCinces
10 6530 Jon Matlack
11 6425 Jack Clark
12 6351 Dennis Eckersley
13 6304 Jim Palmer

14 6286 George Foster
15 6225 Graig Nettles
16 6138 Vida Blue
17 5972 Ron Cey
18 5890 Andre Thornton
19 5863 Mike Schmidt
20 5839 Gary Carter

1978

WAR framework, with a higher baseline replacement level than "normal", resulting in a reduction in replacement wins (Wins Above Reduced Replacement). All fielding numbers used are an average of TZ and DRA.

1. Phil Niekro; 8.35 WARR 343 innings of sub 3 ERA, while pitching in an extreme hitters park, in front of one of the leagues poorest defences; also gained a little less than .5 wins from hitting
2. Ron Guidry; 7.70 WARR great raw numbers, but was the opposite of Niekro: pitching in a pitcher's park in front of one of the league's best defences
3. Mke Caldwell 6.90 WARR
4. Jim Rice 6.40 WARR best offensive season. dropped a spot because he played in a hitter's park
5. Dennis Eckersley 6.20 WARR
6. Dave Parker 6.10 WARR Best NL offensive player
7. Amos Otis 5.95 WARR
8. Doug DeCinces 5.35 WARR
9. Carlton Fisk 5.30 WARR
10.Ted Simmons 5.25 WARR
11. John Stearns 5.25 WARR
12. Dave Golz 5.20 WARR
13. Jon Matlack 5.15 WARR

The rest of the top 20
Vida Blue
Mike Schmidt
Graig Nettles
Jim Palmer
Andre Thornton
Jack Clark
George Foster

1978 Ballot

1. Ron Guidry, P, New York Yankees: 208 ERA+ in 273 innings; one of the most dominating seasons we've seen- the gap between Guidry at #1 and Rice at #2 is as big as the gap between Rice at #2 and Eckersley at #10

2. Jim Rice, RF, Boston Red Sox: 157 OPS+ and 147 Runs Created to lead AL in both categories
3. Phil Niekro, P, Atlanta Braves: 334 innings pitched still not enough to catch Guidry or Rice
4. Mike Caldwell, P, Milwaukee Brewers: 160 ERA+ in 293 innings
5. Dave Parker, RF, Pittsburgh Pirates: 166 OPS+ and 134 Runs Created to lead NL in both categories

6. Jon Matlack, P, Texas Rangers: 165 ERA+ in 270 innings to continue the big year for American League pitchers
7. Ted Simmons, C, St. Louis Cardinals: 148 OPS+ and 98 Runs Created primarily as a Catcher
8. Amos Otis, CF, Kansas City Royals: 151 OPS+ and +16 runs fielding
9. Carlton Fisk, C, Boston Red Sox: 125 OPS+ and 103 Runs Created as a full-time Catcher
10. Dennis Eckersley, P, Boston Red Sox: the third Red Sock to make the top ten thanks to a 139 ERA+ in 268 innings

11. Doug DeCinces, 3B, Baltimore Orioles: 149 OPS+ and +11 runs fielding
12. George Foster, LF, Cincinnati Reds: not a lot to distinguish the glut of NL outfielders other than Parker but Foster leads the rest of the pack partly by playing passable defense
13. Jim Palmer, P, Baltimore Orioles: makes the ballot thanks to a 143 ERA+ in 296 innings but I can't say I'm unhappy to see one of my favorite players here

And the next best:

14. Jack Clark, RF, San Francisco Giants
15. Greg Luzinski, RF, Philadelphia Phillies: part of the NL outfield slugger contingent

16. Dave Goltz, P, Minnesota Twins
17. Jeff Burroughs, LF, Atlanta Braves
18. Dennis Leonard, P, Kansas City Royals
19. Bob Knepper, P, San Francisco Giants
20. Graig Nettles, 3B, New York Yankees

Glad to see 5 ballots already

My 1978 MMP ballot:

1. Ron Guidry -- 25-3, league leading ERA, post-season boost makes this crystal clear
2. Jim Rice -- only player to achieve 400 total bases in a span of almost 40 years
3. Dave Parker -- led NL in BAvg, SLG, OPS+, and WPA
4. Amos Otis -- great defensive CF with a 151 OPS+
5. Phil Niekro -- 142 ERA+ in 334 innings is offset by a pedestrian 2.8 Win Value

6. Doug DeCinces -- very good defensive 3B with a 149 OPS+
7. Jose Cruz -- hidden away in Astrodome, rescued years later by Bill James (great WPA)
8. Ted Simmons -- a typical season for Simba (kinda a weak year for stars)
9. Jack Clark -- break-out season for my Giants
10. Reggie Smith -- missed 30+ games or would have been higher

11. Mike Caldwell -- great season for Brewers (160 ERA+ in 293 IP)
12. Carlton Fisk -- very good hitter and fielder
13. Roy Smalley -- underappreciated break-out season

The rest: Gary Carter, Larry Hisle, George Foster, Ron Cey, Willie Randolph, Graig Nettles, and Jon Matlack

havng received no substantial crtitique from my prelim, my ballot looks similar:

1 Guidry - great stretch vs Boston is the difference
2 Rice
3 Parker
those three were easy
4 Otis - severy underrated allaround player
5 Fisk - small catcher bonus for Pudge and Ted
6 Simmons
7 DeCinces - ditto Otis
8 Caldwell - Cy candidate in many years, but not this one
9 Nettles - I seem to be higher on Nettles than others. Maybe it's more WS than WAR, maybe it's a small Yankee title bonus.
10 Niekro - see discussion threads; I have him lower than most
11 Foster
12 Eckersley
13 Matlack
Palmer and Singleton just miss.

Here's Brock Hanke's ballot for 1978.As usual, I have the list without comments, followed by the comments. That's for ease of tabulation.

I try to balance Win Shares and WAR, but the two systems have been agreeing less and less as these years have passed by. In general, I think that WAR overrates pitchers, but that's the only systematic pattern I can find in the systems' disagreement. So, I do the best I can, looking at the players' careers and trying to see who should get a boost and who should have some gas let out. The fact that the two systems disagree so thoroughly means that it's really impossible to produce a "perfect" ballot. We all can only do the best we can.

I need to note that I normally take a more thorough look through the various sorts that BB-Ref allows. However, for some reason, my BB-Ref account has gone haywire. I can't log in and then go to a new page without automatically being logged out. I can't use P-I, even if I log in at the P-I page itself, because it thinks I'm not subscribed. I have no problem with sending BB-Ref more money if my subscription has run out, but the system's log in difficulties with my account won't even let me do that. I don't know what's going on. I can't even get a "contact us for help" message to work. If anyone here knows anyone who works at BB-Ref, please pass it on that my account has gone completely haywire, and I need for them to fix whatever my login problems are, and I would have sent them an email asking for help if I could get even that feature to work. If this involves my sending money to subscribe to P-I., that's fine. I just can't even do that as of now.

1. Phil Niekro
2. Dave Parker
3. Jim Rice
4. Ron Guidry
5. Ted Simmons
6. Mike Caldwell
7. Carlton Fisk
8. Amos Otis
9. Jack Clark
10. Doug DeCinces
11. Jim Palmer
12. Graig Nettles
13. George Foster


1. Phil Niekro
One of two pitchers that Win Shares and WAR both have ranked very highly. This being Phil Niekro, that makes sense. In his good years, he pitched a lot of innings at a very good rate.

2. Dave Parker
Win Shares has Parker and Rice way above anyone else. My memory of 1978 is that this was true.

3. Jim Rice
Again Win Shares just loves this career year.

4. Ron Guidry
The other pitcher that both Win Shares and WAR likes.

5. Ted Simmons
Win Shares loves this season, and I think they're right. For a Top Ten catcher of all time, Simmons has not had the placements I had expected to see until this year.

6. Mike Caldwell
WAR has him overrated, but not by a lot.

7. Carlton Fisk
Like Simmons, I think the systems both have him a little low, which is another way of saying "catcher bonus."

8. Amos Otis
About as good as Amos could possibly play.

9. Jack Clark
Contemporary opinion didn't catch up to Jack's real level of play until the 1980s. I find this a very safe ranking, especially since both Win Shares and WAR have him close to this high.

10. Doug DeCinces
Underrated during his time, in my opinion.

11. Jim Palmer
Almost a consensus between the two systems.

12. Graig Nettles
A consensus pick of the two systems. That was a surprise. I thought that they'd disagree about his defense, but apparently, it shows up in both methods. Score that as a plus for the systems' fielding methods.

13. George Foster
Win Shares has him as the #6 player this year. WAR does not have him in the top 25 (38th). The other choice was John Matlack. WAR has him ranked much higher than Win Shares, but Win Shares does have him ranked in the top 25 (23rd). I think WAR overrates pitchers. I also can't really ignore someone who placed as high as 6th in either system, no matter what the other one says. All I can do is point out the discrepancy.

13. George Foster
Win Shares has him as the #6 player this year.

Don't forget that win shares is tied into the team's performance. The 78 Reds won 9 more games than they should have:


Manager: Sparky Anderson (92-69)
Scored 710 runs, Allowed 688 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 83-78

Foster is defensible for a ballot spot, even if Win Shares inflated his worth because of team performance. He's already on two other ballots (11th and 12th) and just off a couple of others (14th and 16th). Brock's placement of Foster at 13th is completely reasonable.

Foster is defensible for a ballot spot, even if Win Shares inflated his worth because of team performance. He's already on two other ballots (11th and 12th) and just off a couple of others (14th and 16th). Brock's placement of Foster at 13th is completely reasonable.

I don't disagree, I'm just explaining why he was ranked so much higher in win shares than he was in WAR.

This is copied directly from comment #24 of the Discussion Thread, where I describe my system in more detail, except that I swapped Parker and Otis.

Here's my ballot. I had a lot of trouble filling out the end of it. Basically, everybody I looked at for the last two slots had something that made me question whether they really deserved it. The numbers quoted below are pWins-pLosses, pWOPA, pWORL.

1. Ron Guidry, 20.4 - 10.2, 5.2, 6.6 - this is an outstanding season, excellent postseason just adds to it
2. Jim Rice, 26.9 - 17.3, 4.3, 6.3 - this is an excellent season, but doesn't quite match up to Guidry's
3. Dave Parker, 24.8 - 19.6, 1.6, 3.6 - his #'s are much better in eWOPA/eWORL; my sense was that the NL was better than the AL at this time, so I was a little troubled that my top 3 guys were in the AL; I swapped Parker and Otis because of that
4. Amos Otis, 23.9 - 15.5, 4.1, 5.9 - my Player W-L records really like Otis's defense, as in one of the best CF ever (for his career, 1978 is merely typical in this regard); 1978 was Otis's best offensive season
5. Carlton Fisk, 18.6 - 13.1, 3.1, 4.6 - best C in MLB
6. Davey Lopes, 22.6 - 17.7, 2.8, 4.7 - best 2B in MLB and best player on NL pennant winners
7. Mike Caldwell, 19.0 - 11.2, 4.0, 5.4 - this is the peak of my fandom and Caldwell pitched for a division rival, so I remember him well, but I bet there are lots of guys reading this thread going, "Who the heck was Mike Caldwell?"
8. George Foster, 25.0 - 18.6, 2.5, 4.5 - not quite as good as in 1977 when he hit 52 HRs, but still a damn good player
9. Phil Niekro, 21.7 - 19.6, 2.0, 3.9 - my system doesn't love him as much as WAR, but he was a workhorse and a very good one
10. Roy Smalley, 20.0 - 19.3, 1.3, 3.1 - best SS in MLB, looks better in eWOPA/eWORL
11. Jon Matlack, 16.4 - 12.5, 2.0, 3.4 - another guy who looks better in eWOPA/eWORL
12. Jim Palmer, 17.7 - 13.6, 2.2, 3.6 - not as good as he had been in earlier years, and he only had one more decent year left in him (1982), but still good enough to sneak onto the bottom of the ballot
13. Larry Bowa, 20.3 - 17.7, 2.0, 3.7 - best SS in the NL

Don't forget that win shares is tied into the team's performance. The 78 Reds won 9 more games than they should have:

As a retrospective analysis, I think it's perfectly reasonable to give credit for actual games won (my pWins do exactly that). Hence, George Foster in my top 10.

still good enough to sneak onto the bottom of the ballot

I think Palmer has the record for most years with a vote.

That wouldn't surprise me. Though I'd guess that Aaron and Mays will leapfrog him when we start working back into the '50s.

Here's the all time leaders in MVP award shares:

Rank Most Valuable Player Award Shares
1. Barry Bonds (7 wins) 9.30
2. Stan Musial* (3 wins) 6.96
3. Albert Pujols (3 wins) 6.90
4. Ted Williams* (2 wins) 6.43
5. Willie Mays* (2 wins) 5.94
6. Mickey Mantle* (3 wins) 5.79
7. Hank Aaron* (1 win) 5.45
7. Joe DiMaggio* (3 wins) 5.45
7. Lou Gehrig* (2 wins) 5.45
10. Alex Rodriguez (3 wins) 5.23

And there's always Babe, who should end up on 13-15 ballots when we do all those years.



Of course Musdial did not have to compete with Ted, Mantle and Joe D. like he does here.

My Ballot for 1978:
1) Ron Guidry
2) Jim Rice
3) Phil Niekro
4) Dave Parker
5) George Foster
6) Mike Caldwell
7) Jim Palmer
8) Ron LeFlore
9) Bobby Bonds
10) Ferguson Jenkins
11) Rollie Fingers
12) Amos Otis
13) Doug DeCinces

John Juergens - please post a prelim ballot in the 1978 discussion thread and provide some information about how you ranked the players.

1978 Official MMP Ballot (no credit for postseason efforts):

1) Dave Parker: Best ML player by not a huge amount, but still a decent enough lead.
2) Ron Guidry: Best ML pitcher
3) Jim Rice: Best AL position player and ML left fielder - close enough to Louisiana Lightning that an argument can be made that he deserves to be #2.
4) Mike Caldwell
5) Carlton Fisk: Best ML catcher.
6) Amos Otis: Best ML center fielder.
7) Ted Simmons: Best NL catcher.
8) Phil Niekro: Best NL pitcher.
9) Jon Matlack: Almost identical to Knucksie in terms of overall value.
10) Jack Clark: Best ML right fielder.
11) Davey Lopes: Best ML second baseman.
12) Jim Palmer
13) Reggie Smith: Barely knocked out George Foster for the last spot.

Thanks to Dave Parker's unbelievably good season, I found three very nasty errors on my spreadsheet, ones that had I spotted earlier would certainly have affected my ballot for 2012 (Buster Posey would have been my #1), and maybe for 1977 as well. So now Dave Parker's season is no longer unbelievably good, but believably good.

It may be I'll need an extension to get a ballot in, since instead of putting the players' data into the spreadsheet, I've been trying to figure out what was wrong. I'll know better by late tonight.

I think Palmer has the record for most years with a vote.

Killed 20 minutes looking up the answer. Nope, not yet.

Hank Aaron has the record with MMP votes in 10 seasons ('61-'69 and '71)

However, Jim Palmer has tied Tom Seaver as the top pitcher with 8. Seaver received votes in '68-'71, '73 and '75-'77 while Palmer has received votes in '70-'73 and '75-'78.

Other names at the top of the list are

8: Willie Mays
7: Bob Gibson and Frank Robinson
6: Willie McCovey, Dick Allen, Ron Santo, Pete Rose, Reggie Jackson, Rod Carew and Joe Morgan
5: Brooks Robinson, Harmon Killebrew, Juan Marichal, Carl Yastrzemski, Jimmy Wynn, Fergie Jenkins, Gaylord Perry, Johnny Bench, Bobby Grich, Mike Schmidt and Ted Simmons

Tony Oliva and Cesar Cedeno have the most of anyone not in the Hall of Merit with 4 each.

I won't have a ballot ready by 4 pm tomorrow. Too many after-school activities for me to get much done both today and tomorrow.

Not sure about Thursday, either. Pitchers are the most time-consuming fellows, and I've only done Mr Guidry.

1978 MMP ballot:

1. Ron Guidry
2. Dave Parker
3. Carlton Fisk
4. Jim Rice
5. Mike Caldwell
6. Phil Niekro
7. Jon Matlack
8. Ted Simmons
9. Jim Palmer
10. Amis Otis
11. Doug DeCinces
12. George Foster
13. Bill Madlock

I can extend until Friday if necessary.

My ballot. Unchanged from prelim; see that thread for details.

1. Ron Guidry
2. Jim Rice
3. Davey Lopes
4. Ron Cey
5. Carlton Fisk
6. Mike Caldwell
7. Dave Parker
8. Jon Matlack
9. Ted Simmons
10. Phil Niekro
11. Graig Nettles
12. Greg Luzinski
13. Gary Carter

Voted in 1977 or 2012, haven't voted yet

sunnyday
JJ1986
fra paulo

Extended to Friday for the three voters mentioned in post 28. I'll also accept johnjuergens ballot if there is a prelim posted.

Balloting will close at 4pm EST

My system ranks players by means of Weighted Runs Created derived from wOBA, using league average rather than replacement level (although for the 2012 MMP I used replacement level, now proving to be a one-off). For pitchers, I use a system derived from one described by David Gassko in 2006 for The Hardball Times, for which I convert pitching lines into batting lines. For fielding, I am currently using Fielding Win Shares Above Bench, converted to runs, and added directly to the batting wRC. I adjust batting and pitching for park. I create a consideration list using WPA/LI, to which I add names popular with the electorate. My system values playing time highly, as will be apparent in the rankings. The number in parenthesis is the RC value I have reached.

1) Phil Niekro (147)
2) Ron Guidry (130) On a rate basis, Guidry is way ahead, but Niekro's extra seven starts carry him above the Yankee starter. Niekro's rate numbers are not impressive, being behind every other pitcher on my ballot (and a couple off it), but one has to value that durability.
3) Jim Rice (129) A year or two ago in HoM balloting I became one of Jim Rice's biggest fans. This season is one of the main reasons why. He was good with the glove, and a lot better with the bat. AL LFs average a .344 wOBA, but Rice works out at .426. Even with a park adjustment downwards he has the most batting runs created in baseball.
4) Roy Smalley (122) A very good hitting season for a shortstop, and he didn't embarrass himself with the glove, either. The average AL shortstop wasn't much with the bat, the lowest of all major-league positions with the exception of NL pitchers.
5) Davey Lopes (112)
6) Ted Simmons (111) These two are very close. NL catchers were better hitters than NL 2Bs, which seems to have given Lopes the edge.
7) Mike Caldwell (109) My system doesn't like pitchers with low K/9s (as distinct from liking pitchers with a high K/9), and that hurt Caldwell, whose 3.8 K/9 really took a big chunk out of his value.
8) Andre Thornton (108) Came very close to passing Caldwell. He seems to be Mr Overlooked for MMP 1978, and my system tends not to like 1Bs so I should have got in earlier on the Discussion Thread. Lots of walks and lots of dingers.
9) Doug DeCinces (106) He's here on account of his hitting, a .396 wOBA.
10) Jack Clark (104.3) Clark was a late arrival to my consideration set, and surprised me with such a high score. As with Mike Trout in my 2012 ballot, he gets a big boost from playing in a pitcher's park. He was also a fairly good fielder.
11) Dave Concepcion (103.9) NL shortstops were about ten points better on average in wOBA, and Concepcion was about ten points better than Smalley. But converting the wOBAs into runs captures the fact that there are more teams in the AL, so AL players accumulate more value by being better than more rivals. Concepcion gets this high because he's a good fielder.
12) Amos Otis (103.7) He had a very good season at age 31 with the bat, but there are players with more batting value than him who fell behind because of Otis' excellent fielding.
13) Dennis Leonard (102.5) It's entirely a playing-time argument by a better-than-average starter, but here he is, 0.5 of a run ahead of Carlton Fisk.


Special Mention
Dave Parker (101.2) The players ahead of Parker not mentioned above are: Steve Garvey. That's it, he comes up to the edge of the ballot, but misses it. Why?
His wOBA is .422 versus a league average for NL RFs of .360, which is the best of all positions in the major leagues. What really hurts him here is a league-leading 23 intentional passes, which reduce the wOBA value of his walks by about forty per cent at a guesstimate. Adding hits and uBB together gives Clark 226 to Parker's 228. And Parker is playing in a 106 factor ballpark versus Clark's 92. Thornton, also in a pitcher's park, has 222.
As for his fielding, Parker adds about 5 runs, which is good for a corner OF, but not as much as Rice adds (5.8).
So, in summary: playing in the smaller league, in a park favouring batters, not walking unintentionally much, and being measured against the best-hitting position in the majors drags down Parker's relative value considerably.

CORRECTION

Phil Niekro has better rate stats than Dennis Leonard.

I'll accept johnjuergens ballot if there is a prelim posted. Otherwise we have 13 right now.

Election is closed