If we don't get 10 people voting I think we should shut it down

1978 prelim

1) Ron Guidry
2) Phil Niekro
3) Mike Caldwell - good year for pitchers
4) Ted Simmons
5) John Matlack
6) Dave Parker
7) Dennis Eckersley
8) Jim Rice - this is really the linchpin of a Hall of Fame case?
9) Jim Palmer
10) Roy Smalley
11) Amos Otis
12) Jack Clark
13) Ron Cey

14-20) Dave Goltz, Bill Madlock, Dave Concepcion, Davey Lopes, Larry Bowa, Carlton Fisk, Vida Blue

If we don't get 10 people voting I think we should shut it down

I'm having a ton of fun participating in this project and would hate to see it go but I certainly understand the sentiment. If we drop below 10, we've probably reached the point of diminishing returns.

So- all you primates, readers and lurkers, don't let the MMP project die on the vine. It's not a huge commitment. It takes about an hour (more or less) to do a thorough ballot. And we vote every 3 weeks or so. As someone who was a HoM lurker for years before joining up as a voter, I can assure you that it's much more rewarding to be a part of the project.

OK, I may join.

A couple of Qs?s to get me up to speed on the metrics quoted above:
Niekro's BBRWAR of 10.1. Does it account for unearned runs? Does it account for his hitting and fielding? his WAR on bb-ref shows up as 9.6.

All the "BBREF WAR" numbers were actually taken from seamheads, just like the Win Shares. It's a lot easier to use the one page to get all the data. They say they use BBREF WAR numbers but I don't doublecheck them.

I believe BBREF WAR accounts for unearned runs, adjusts for team defense and adds in pitcher hitting and fielding.

This year should be interesting. I can see five "correct" answers: Guidry or Niekro among pitchers depending on where your replacement level is, Rice or Parker among the sluggers and Simmons if you have a catcher bonus. Only 2 of the 5 are HoM inductees which means this year has the potential to be the first MMP who is not HOM.

Here are my Win Values for the 1978 starting pitchers (estimated wins above average based upon game-by-game analysis of starting pitcher runs allowed and runs support):

NL
1. Bob Knepper 3.9
2. Vida Blue 3.6
3. Steve Rogers 3.5
4. Burt Hooton 3.5
5. Craig Swan 3.3
6. Phil Niekro 2.8
7. Ross Grimsley 2.4
8. Pete Vuckovich 2.3
9. Dick Ruthven 2.1
10. Don Robinson 2.0

AL
1. Ron Guidry 6.8
2. Mike Caldwell 5.0
3. Jon Matlack 4.9
4. Dave Goltz 4.5
5. Jim Palmer 4.0
6. Fergie Jenkins 3.3
7. Dennis Eckersley 3.1
8. Larry Gura 3.1
9. Luis Tiant 2.8
10. Ed Figueroa 2.6

By this game-by-game measure, Phil Niekro's season is kinda ordinary.

This year should be interesting. I can see five "correct" answers: Guidry or Niekro among pitchers depending on where your replacement level is, Rice or Parker among the sluggers and Simmons if you have a catcher bonus. Only 2 of the 5 are HoM inductees which means this year has the potential to be the first MMP who is not HOM.

Just eyeballing those 5, I have Guidry ahead by a mile. That's a historic season, right up there with the some of the best years posted by the likes of Morgan (at 2B) or Gibson (as a P).

I have Rice 2nd, though it's close. The big difference between Rice and Parker is actually defense. Parker has the better defensive reputation overall- thanks in large part to his great arm- and actually won a Gold Glove in '78 but Rice had the better year fielding. This is the point at which Parker's range and accuracy have started to decline, even if the Gold Glove voters haven't noticed yet. BB-ref gives him an even zero for fielding runs. His range factor per game and per 9 have dropped to 2.14 and 2.17 which are both below league average (2.29 and 2.31). By traditional numbers, Parker has more errors (13) than assists (12). Rice, meanwhile, is plus 8. He's also below league average in range factor but he has a much better ratio in assists to errors (13 to 3).

Niekro sneaks in between the two sluggers for 3rd.

And Simmons is 5th. He'd be ahead of Parker except for a qualified catcher bonus. A full catcher bonus would have him in 4th. However, Simmons played 88% of his games at catcher (the rest were in left field) so he gets 88% of the bonus. That's not normally significant but in this case, it makes a difference.

It's possible that someone else will crack the top five when I do a full ballot.

Niekro won't look that great above a baseline of average. It's the 334 innings pitched that helps him when compared to a baseline of "replacement". The guy is in the middle of a 3 year run leading the league in batters faced.

I usually like big inning guys. In this case, it's good enough to get Niekro into 3rd.

Thanks DL. Next Q?: who's done a good study of league strength for the late 70s?

Also, one of you typically posts a playoff stat summary for candidates, right? I do recall Guidry having a fine post-season, plus the 163rd game vs Boston that I watched in a college dorm.

Tom H: My understanding is that the 9.6 WAR you see on the pitcher value page on BBREF is has WAR as a pitcher. The 10.1 WAR at the top of this discussion page includes his WAR as a hitter as well. (which you find on the batters value page on BBREF)

Tom H: My understanding is that the 9.6 WAR you see on the pitcher value page on BBREF is his WAR as a pitcher. The 10.1 WAR at the top of this discussion page includes his WAR as a hitter as well. (which you find on the batters value page on BBREF)

As RA+ equivalent record: I have Guidry at 24-7, for a single-season Fib.WinPt. score of 35. With all those innings, Niekro comes in at 23-14, for single-season FibWinPt of 23. It's not close, as you can see by subtracting to get Niekro as Guidry plus (-1)-7. For Niekro, by RA+ equivalent record, this 23-14 is essentially tied for his second best season with 1969 (21-11); his best season was 1974 (23-11). Of course, 1978 was Guidry's best season by a considerable margin, although his 1977 and 1979 were quite good.

I haven't worked up the rest of the pitchers, and when I do, the numbers for Guidry and Niekro might shift slightly (park factor from a different source).

I think league strength is baked into BBREF WAR in the "RRep" column.

Here's my prelim ballot. Probably won't change.
My usual method (uber stat blender) w/ 10% catcher bonus and no postseason credit.

1 9208 Ron Guidry
2 8961 Phil Niekro
3 8496 Jim Rice
4 8388 Dave Parker
5 7665 Mike Caldwell
6 7282 Amos Otis
7 6933 Ted Simmons
8 6809 Carlton Fisk
9 6572 Doug DeCinces
10 6530 Jon Matlack
11 6425 Jack Clark
12 6351 Dennis Eckersley
13 6304 Jim Palmer

14 6286 George Foster
15 6225 Graig Nettles
16 6138 Vida Blue
17 5972 Ron Cey
18 5890 Andre Thornton
19 5863 Mike Schmidt
20 5839 Gary Carter

Even WITH the extra innings I'm still surprised how close Niekro comes to Guidry.
He even tops him in both baseballreferenceWAR and fangraphsWAR.

We're just a couple years away from the 1st season of baseball that I followed (1980).
I sure hope we do get the ballots in to keep the project going!

some ingredients that go into my prelim that are not reflected in common stats:
1 I discount NL (no DH) hitters WS for reasons I've described in previous threads. In fact I would argue we all should.
2 Guidry won 3 games vs the Red Sox in Sept, two of them shutouts. He also was great in the playoffs.
3 Countering the above, I doubt WS gives as much credit to the Yankee defense as it should (James 'cap' on team D). ALL of the NYY pitchers were good. Ed Figueroa was 20-9 with a 2.99 ERA, even tho he had a KO/BB ratio of 1.19. Thus, I will ding Ron G a bit.
4 I do use some of Rob W's win value system
========

Guidry or Rice 1 and 2, very close
3 Parker
gap
4 Otis
5 Fisk
6 Simmons
7 DeCinces
8 Nettles/Caldwell
10-14 Niekro Foster Singleton Eck Matlack

WAR framework, with a higher baseline replacement level than "normal", resulting in a reduction in replacement wins (Wins Above Reduced Replacement). All fielding numbers used are an average of TZ and DRA.

American league pitchers have dominated my supplementary ballot, although #1 ended up being an NL pitcher.

1. Phil Niekro; 8.65 WARR 343 innings of sub 3 ERA, while pitching in an extreme hitters park, in front of one of the leagues poorest defences
2. Ron Guidry; 7.95 WARR great raw numbers, but was the opposite of Niekro: pitching in a pitcher's park in front of one of the league's best defences
3. Mke Caldwell 7.15 WARR
4. Jim Rice 6.40 WARR best offensive season. dropped a spot because he played in a hitter's park
5. Dennis Eckersley 6.40 WARR
6. Dave Parker 6.05 WARR Best NL offensive player
7. Amos Otis 5.95 WARR
8. Doug DeCinces 5.35 WARR
9. Dave Golz 5.35 WARR
10. Jon Matlack 5.35 WARR
11. Carlton Fisk 5.30 WARR
12. Vida Blue 5.30 WARR
13. Jim Palmer 5.30 WARR

The last 6 on the list were very close so I have to look more closely at that group before the final ballot.

The rest of the top 20

Ted Simmons
John Stearns
Mike Schmidt
Bob Knepper
Graig nettles
Andre Thornton
Luis Tiant

Lots of good relief seasons, no great ones:

Stanley: it is surprising to me that a guy who went 15-2, mostly in relief, could have such a low WPA.

We're getting into the era where I recognize names from baseball cards (Amos Otis, Mike Caldwell) but I never really knew they had seasons this good.

Stanley: it is surprising to me that a guy who went 15-2, mostly in relief, could have such a low WPA.

Shouldn't be. Among Stanley's wins:

2 came as a starter. He was supported by 11 runs in each of those two starts.
2 came after he blew a lead.
4 came after he replaced a starter who couldn't get through 5 innings. In three of those four games he gave up multiple runs.

It's hard to pile up WPA in those outings. And his two losses were his two worst outings of the year, and cost him more in WPA than he gained in any of his good outings.

-- MWE

Re: Rice's Fielding.

Well, not actually. I have started looking at fielding though, and we are now dealing with a season that I have not analysed before, so I'm taking the opportunity to streamline my spreadsheet. And, in looking at the AL fielding, I found this interesting.

Boston was 7th in the league in outfield putouts. When you break down the putouts by position, you get the following percentages.

RF: 32 per cent (league average 30 per cent)
CF: 38 per cent (league average 40 per cent)
LF: 30 per cent (league average 30 per cent)

So, I wondered if this was typical, and I went back to 1974, the last AL season I had data already loaded in to a spread sheet.

Boston was 3rd in the league in outfield putouts.

RF: 34 per cent (league average 30 per cent)
CF: 42 per cent (league average 41 per cent)
LF: 24 per cent (league average 29 per cent)

The thing is, because of the wall at Fenway, I'd expect the 1974 figures to be typical of a Red Sox' team, which would make 1978 the oddity. So I'll come back to this with more data when I can.

I calculate my own Player won-lost records from Retrosheet play-by-play data. I calculate them two ways: tied to team wins (pWins) and context-neutral (eWins). I look at wins over positional average (WOPA) and over replacement level (WORL).

Here are top 25s for pWOPA/pWORL and eWOPA/eWORL. These figures include postseason games, just weighting them the same as regular-season games.

Here's my ballot. I had a lot of trouble filling out the end of it. Basically, everybody I looked at for the last two slots had something that made me question whether they really deserved it. The numbers quoted below are pWins-pLosses, pWOPA, pWORL.

1. Ron Guidry, 20.4 - 10.2, 5.2, 6.6 - this is an outstanding season, excellent postseason just adds to it
2. Jim Rice, 26.9 - 17.3, 4.3, 6.3 - this is an excellent season, but doesn't quite match up to Guidry's
3. Amos Otis, 23.9 - 15.5, 4.1, 5.9 - my Player W-L records really like Otis's defense, as in one of the best CF ever (for his career, 1978 is merely typical in this regard); 1978 was Otis's best offensive season
4. Dave Parker, 24.8 - 19.6, 1.6, 3.6 - his #'s are much better in eWOPA/eWORL; my sense was that the NL was better than the AL at this time, so I'm a little troubled that my top 3 guys are in the AL; I might swap Parker and Otis because of that
5. Carlton Fisk, 18.6 - 13.1, 3.1, 4.6 - best C in MLB
6. Davey Lopes, 22.6 - 17.7, 2.8, 4.7 - best 2B in MLB and best player on NL pennant winners
7. Mike Caldwell, 19.0 - 11.2, 4.0, 5.4 - this is the peak of my fandom and Caldwell pitched for a division rival, so I remember him well, but I bet there are lots of guys reading this thread going, "Who the heck was Mike Caldwell?"
8. George Foster, 25.0 - 18.6, 2.5, 4.5 - not quite as good as in 1977 when he hit 52 HRs, but still a damn good player
9. Phil Niekro, 21.7 - 19.6, 2.0, 3.9 - my system doesn't love him as much as WAR, but he was a workhorse and a very good one
10. Roy Smalley, 20.0 - 19.3, 1.3, 3.1 - best SS in MLB, looks better in eWOPA/eWORL
11. Jon Matlack, 16.4 - 12.5, 2.0, 3.4 - another guy who looks better in eWOPA/eWORL
12. Jim Palmer, 17.7 - 13.6, 2.2, 3.6 - not as good as he had been in earlier years, and he only had one more decent year left in him (1982), but still good enough to sneak onto the bottom of the ballot
13. Larry Bowa, 20.3 - 17.7, 2.0, 3.7 - best SS in the NL

Postseason credit NLCS

Player G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS
RonCey 4  16  4  5  1  0  1  3  2  4  .313  .389  .563  .951  0  0
DLopes 4  18  3  7  1  1  2  5  0  1  .389  .389  .889  1.278  1  0
RSmith 4  16  2  3  1  0  0  1  0  2  .188  .235  .250  .485  0  0

LarBowa 4  18  2  6  0  0  0  0  1  2  .333  .368  .333  .702  0  0
Schmidt 4  15  1  3  2  0  0  1  2  2  .200  .278  .333  .611  0  1

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Hooton 1  1  7.71  0  0  0  0  4.2  10  4  0  5  2.143  

Postseason credit ALCS

Player G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS
AmoOtis 4  14  2  6  2  0  0  1  3  5  .429  .529  .571  1.101  4  0
GeBrett 4  18  7  7  1  1  3  3  0  1  .389  .389  1.056  1.444  0  0

Nettles 4  15  3  5  0  1  1  2  0  1  .333  .333  .667  1.000  0  0

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV CG  IP  H  ER BB  SO  WHIP
LarGura 1  1  2.84  1  0  0  0  6.1  8  2  2  2  1.579  

RGuidry 1  1  1.13  1  0  0  0  8.0  7  1  1  7  1.000  

Postseason credit World Series

Player G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS
Nettles 6  25  2  4  0  0  0  1  0  6  .160  .160  .160  .320  0  0

RonCey 6  21  2  6  0  0  1  4  3  3  .286  .375  .429  .804  0  0
DLopes 6  26  7  8  0  0  3  7  2  1  .308  .357  .654  1.011  2  0
RSmith 6  25  3  5  0  0  1  5  2  6  .200  .259  .320  .579  0  1

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV CG  IP  H  ER BB  SO  WHIP
RGuidry 1  1  1.00  1  0  0  1  9.0  8  1  7  4  1.667  

BHooton 2  2  6.48  1  1  0  0  8.1  13  6  3  6  1.920  

Lopes may have had his best 10 game stretch of the year. Overall line of .341/.369/.750/1.119 Cey was also very good.

Guidry was phenomenal despite more walks than strikeouts. He had a good game 163 also.

Good series for Amos Otis and George Brett but it wasn't enough.

Hooton was awful as was Reggie Smith.

Lopes was charged with three postseason errors. Dodger gloves were one of the reasons the Yankees won the series.

Well, Lopes made one error in the WS; it was in a game LA won 11 to 5, much of which was Davey driving in 5 runs from the leadoff spot. It wasn't Lopes who was in any way responsible for the WS loss.
He did make one semi-important error in the one game LA lost in the NLCS.

I think Cey was the only Dodger without an error. I counted 3 for Russell, 1 or 2 for Smith, 1 for Garvey.

Finally getting around to this: a look at 1978 pitching.

Scoring dropped noticeably from 1977 in both leagues, for whatever reason. The NL went from 4.40 to 4.02 runs per 9 innings, and the AL from 4.56 to 4.25.

RA+ equivalent records:

Guidry: 23-7
Caldwell: 22-10
Eckersley: 19-10
Palmer: 21-12 (not adjusted for defensive support)
Matlack: 19-11
Goltz: 16-8
Gossage: 10-5; 14-7 with inherited runner adjustment
Stanley: 10-5; 14-8 with inherited runner adjustment

Neikro: 23-14 (OK hitter)
Knepper: 18-11 (bad hitter)
Blue: 17-11 (as hitter drew walks)
Reuschel: 16-11
Richard: 16-14
Tekulve: 10-5; 15-7 with inherited runner adjustment
Bair: 8-3; 11-4 with inherited runner adjustment
Garber: 10-3; 11-4 with inherited runner adjustment

Some stray comments:

It was an age of big-time park factors. Fenway versus Memorial Stadium (Baltimore). Wrigley versus the Astrodome. And so on. Garber kind of messes with the system by being traded midseason between teams with rather different parks.

Tekulve was quite good against inherited runners: 14 out of 69. Garber, by contrast, saw very few inherited runners: 7 out of 25.

I threw in J.R. Richard. He wasn't anywhere close to being among the league-leading pitchers (he was, after all, pitching in the Astrodome). But he was interesting. Fewest hits per inning allowed by a very large margin. Most strikeouts per inning by a very large margin. Just an extreme power pitcher.

That's a lot of virtual 20-game winners. It helps that some big inning totals were still being pitched, even if not at the level of the early 70's.

I might take Caldwell over Niekro. One thing holding Niekro down in my analysis, which is based on RA: Niekro allowed quite a few unearned runs. And I think that's all a part of being the pitcher he was. It counts.

I've been doing this for the MMP project from 1961 through 1978. Best single pitching seasons, by RA+ equivalent record, in that span:

Gibson 1968: 27-7 (adjust up for offense)
Carlton 1972: 28-10 (adjust up for offense)
Perry 1972: 27-11
Koufax 1966: 26-10 (adjust down for offense)
Seaver 1971: 24-10 (adjust up for offense)
Guidry 1978: 23-7
Chance 1964: 23-7 (adjust down for offense)
Blue 1971: 25-10 (slightly down for offense)
Koufax 1963: 25-10 (adjust down for offense)

Parker has the better defensive reputation overall- thanks in large part to his great arm- and actually won a Gold Glove in '78 but Rice had the better year fielding. This is the point at which Parker's range and accuracy have started to decline, even if the Gold Glove voters haven't noticed yet.

Parker had the "tools' to be a good/great fielder but was very erratic, sometimes the MSM decides that such players are as good as their tools (Parker) and the guy gets pegged with a good glove rep that last awhile, or the MSM decides that some are poor fielders irrespective of their tools (Strawberry).

If there's a dime's difference between Parker's dee and Starwberry's it's probably in Straw's favor, but Parker won several GGs, was in the discussion several other times, and Straw never sniffed one.

The MOST MERITORIOUS PLAYER for 1978 is clearly Gator. I watched about 15-20 of his starts that year (and I was a Mets fan)-
I had never before or since seen starter who appeared as consistently unhittable (and I saw most of Doc's 1985)-
he was a diminutive guy, late bloomer, and pretty much lost his velocity after that year (but remained a good pitcher for the better part of a decade).

I wonder how many IP Niekro would have had if he had been on a god tgeam, with more late-inning leads, and an established closer in the pen? I suspect fewer! Just like Rose had more PA inthe 70s because he led off for the Machine (Win Shares adjusts for the Rose-issue).

Parker had the "tools' to be a good/great fielder but was very erratic

One reason Parker had as many assists (and errors) as he did was that people ran on him, good arm or no.

Back when Retrosheet first released PBP data for Parker's career I took a look at runner advancement against outfielders. Parker threw out a good percentage, to be sure, but there were also a lot of extra bases taken against him; he rated in the bottom half, if memory serves, among right fielders. There's a contrast with Jesse Barfield, who not only threw out a lot of guys but gave up relatively few extra bases.

-- MWE

Niekro's innings 7-9 splits are pretty strong in 1978. The team was most likely making the right decision keeping him in the game.

Not disputing that at all, DL; just saying that if we state "he would have won more games with the ____s" (run support), we shoud also consider that he would likely IMHO have had fewer IPs with the _____s before concluding such. It's a bit like an RBI guy for a poor team; we pontificate that he would have driven in more for a good team (more baserunners), but we sometimes foregt he may have batted 6th instead of cleanup on that good team!

1-Ron Guidry
2-Jim Rice
3-Dave Parker
4-Phil Niekro
5-Mike Caldwell
6-Amos Otis
7-Mike Schmidt
8-Jack Clark
9-Gary Carter
10-Dennis Eckersley
11-Doug Decinces
12-Vida Blue
13-Graig Nettles

I ranked the players based on several factors, including their WAR numbers, their overall stats, and my vivid memories of that season. I turned 21 years old that year, went to many games, including every post season game at Yankee Stadium that year. Nettles edged out many others for the last spot for being the unsung hero of the world series that year. I thought that Guidry was more valuable than Rice that year, and the modern metrics bear that out.

Thanks for the explanation.

I certainly intend to vote, although for some odd reason I can't use P-I over at BB-Ref, and can't figure out why, either. But with or without that tool, I will vote. The only question I have is whether, since I did not participate in the 2012 election, I have to post up a preliminary here, or is my vote from 1977 enough? - Brock Hanke

77 is okay.

I had raved about 1977 music on that thread... but 1978 is even better.
No doubt this list would change somewhat if I were to try it another time... but here goes:
1- BUZZCOCKS- Another Music In A Different Kitchen (their 1st album and still my favorite. Kudos to them, though, as I've really enjoyed their most 2 recent albums)
2- STRANGLERS- Black and White (their 3rd album... and my favorite of theirs. In a real battle for the top spot)
3- JAM- All Mod Cons (I prefer their next album Setting Sons... but this one is damn good)
4- ADVERTS- Crossing The Red Sea With The Adverts (Their 1st, and my favorite, but I think their 2nd album is underrated)
5- BUZZCOCKS- Love Bites
6- SAINTS- Eternally Yours
7- WIRE- Chairs Missing
8- REZILLOS- Can't Stand The Rezillos
9- ELVIS COSTELLO- This Year's Model
10-XTC- Go2
11-XTC- White Music
12-CLASH- Give 'Em Enough Rope
13-GENERATION X- Generation X

Hey, all. I've been lurking in the MMP threads for a while, but (assuming we don't drop below the critical mass needed to continue the elections) I think I want to start voting. Like many of you, my starting point would be an aggregation of ueberstats, but I would take a weighted average (so e.g. bpWARP would be counted somewhat less because the methodology is less transparent and seemingly gives a disproportionate number of peculiar results), and I would not include Win Shares-type metrics. However, I think WAR has certain limitations in assessing single-season greatness, so I'm considering the following adjustments and would appreciate any thoughts you all have on them.

Fielding
I agree with the skepticism of outlying single-season defensive figures, but I would prefer a more systematic approach to handling them, and I don't think that regressing them to the mean is necessarily the best way. My idea is to do a LOESS regression on the player's defensive numbers over the course of his career, so that if the player has an outlying year, it's still partially counted, but is partially regressed to the norms of his surrounding seasons. (I know the sample size will be too small for LOESS to be a rigorously correct method, but it should be good enough for our purposes.) To take a simplified example, say a player's aggregate defensive numbers over a seven-year period were 7, 0, 5, 15, -3, 8, 2. After smoothing, this might look more like 5, 3, 6, 9, 3, 5, 4. The question, of course, would be how high to set the smoothing parameter - that is, how much of the year-to-year variability do we want to consider to be noise and how much do we want to consider to be signal?

There's another aspect I'm thinking about. MGL has written that his single-season UZR figures are substantially regressed to the mean in order to remove some of the unnecessary noise. My question is, do other defensive metrics do the same thing, or do they report their raw output in each season? If they all do what UZR does, then a player's "career UZR" is quite misleading. As the sample size increases, statistical inference dictates that we should have more confidence in the raw outputs and should remove much of the regression that was baked into the single-season numbers. A player who averages -10 UZR per season over a 15-year career would have a -150 career UZR listed on his player page, but surely something like -200 or -250 (yikes!) would be a better representation of how UZR sees his fielding. If other defensive systems do this as well, it would have some impact on how I'd assess single-season defense, as I'd multiply the season-by-season numbers by a scaling factor. There are still some big question marks, though, such as exactly how much regression to undo (after all, I don't have access to the inner machinery of these statistics, so I don't know how much of this regression they incorporate, if they do at all). I also don't know how I would adjust negative single-season figures for players who were well above zero for their career, and vice versa.

Pitching
Over single seasons (but not over a career), and increasingly so as we approach the '90s and '00s, I think there's some value in factoring in FIP, because it's undoubtedly true that chance can cause fielders to perform somewhat better behind one pitcher than behind another. But if I wanted to be as rigorous as possible about incorporating it, I would want to look at RA-FIP over the pitcher's career after adjusting for average quality of fielding support. As with fielding, I would perform a LOESS-type procedure to try to partially smooth out the curve; I would prefer this over simply using career RA-FIP, since this aspect of a pitcher's talent can definitely change over time. Again, though, the question would be exactly how much faith to put in single-season RA-FIP. I think I'd lean towards a high amount of faith, giving the pitcher most of the credit for his low BABIP/high LOB%.

Also, I'm not at all sure how to incorporate this into win values, but I would want to try to make an adjustment for a pitcher's start-by-start distribution of runs allowed. If two pitchers have comparable RA and IP numbers, but one packs an unusually high number of his runs allowed into 8 R, 2.2 IP stinkers, then that guy should be given a boost because it means he had more of the games with 0/1/2 runs allowed that a team will usually win. If any of you have suggestions on how to quantify and incorporate this into WAR, I would greatly appreciate it.

Hitting
I'm a huge fan of RE24 as opposed to wRAA or the like. I think contextual/situational hitting should be extremely important in assessing single-season value, because it has a clear effect on the team's run-scoring. I don't like using win probability because it introduces too many absurdities. For instance, a batter who hits a three-run homer in the second inning but then strikes out with runners on second and third in a tie game in the ninth will have a negative WPA despite having a clearly positive effect on his team's chances of winning the game. RE24, by contrast, accounts for the huge difference in hitting home runs with runners on base versus with the bases empty, or between striking out with a runner on third and one out versus striking out with nobody on. I know that a big caveat of RE24 is that it will be biased towards hitters who get more opportunities, but I'm unsure about exactly what the scale of this problem is. I guess I'd also have to do my own park adjustment if I wanted to substitute it for wRAA (or weight it half-and-half; I'm not sure if it should fully replace the context-neutral numbers), and that might be a pain in the ass. I'd also like to solicit opinions on WPA/LI - what are its advantages and disadvantages as compared to RE24?


Anyway, this might all be more complicated than it needs to be, but I think there's a pretty good argument for making each of these adjustments in determining MMPs. It might be above my pay grade with respect to handling large amounts of data, but if I failed to figure out how to work out the numbers precisely, I'd probably try to eyeball it. As long as I'm careful about it, I think that's better than nothing, especially since aggregated WAR would still comprise the vast bulk of my assessments. Again, though, criticism and suggestions would be very welcome.

I think it's a valid approach but I'm skeptical about regressing too much to surrounding years. Players can have outlier fielding years too and we're trying to evaluate just the current season. But then again you say UZR is already regressed.

I had raved about 1977 music on that thread... but 1978 is even better.
No doubt this list would change somewhat if I were to try it another time... but here goes:
1- BUZZCOCKS- Another Music In A Different Kitchen (their 1st album and still my favorite. Kudos to them, though, as I've really enjoyed their most 2 recent albums)
2- STRANGLERS- Black and White (their 3rd album... and my favorite of theirs. In a real battle for the top spot)
3- JAM- All Mod Cons (I prefer their next album Setting Sons... but this one is damn good)
4- ADVERTS- Crossing The Red Sea With The Adverts (Their 1st, and my favorite, but I think their 2nd album is underrated)
5- BUZZCOCKS- Love Bites
6- SAINTS- Eternally Yours
7- WIRE- Chairs Missing
8- REZILLOS- Can't Stand The Rezillos
9- ELVIS COSTELLO- This Year's Model
10-XTC- Go2
11-XTC- White Music
12-CLASH- Give 'Em Enough Rope
13-GENERATION X- Generation X

Apparently you don't like much black music.

Here's the best of 1978:

I Will Survive Gloria Gaynor
One Nation Under a Groove Funkadelic
Le Freak Chic
YMCA Village People
September Earth, Wind & Fire
Last Dance Donna Summer
Knock On Wood Amii Stewart
You Make Me Feel (Mighty Real) Sylvester
Get Off Foxy
On Broadway George Benson
You and I Rick James
Close the Door Teddy Pendergrass
Shake Your Body (Down To the Ground) Jacksons
I'm Every Woman Chaka Khan
Shout Otis Day & the Knights
Shake Your Groove Thing Peaches & Herb
Heaven Knows Donna Summer
Macho Man Village People

I understand the reason for considering regressing fielding ##s, but you would need to piece out the actual plays (errors, OF assists) from the presumed range numbers.

BTW, does any fielding system account for differences in infield errors on surfaces? When half of MLB was on turf, it seemed some infields begged for lots of errors from SS and 3Bmen, and others not.

Ilieam and SavoyBG -

MAN, do you have different tastes in music. This is not a quality issue, but simple taste. Mine is closer to Ilieam's, but this is still the period when I wasn't listening to much new music, still hung over from disco. I will, however, admit to a SERIOUS fondness for early Buzzcocks, and The Clash was the first punk band I ever liked. My return to current music started in 1981, when I saw a movie called "Urgh! A Music War" which I recommend to everyone every chance I get. However, to give you an idea of how quick the turnover was at the time, Ilieam's list fits Urgh!s style much more than Savoy's does, but the only band from his list that is actually in the movie is XTC. All the other Urgh! bands got going in the two years of 1979 and 1980.

One of the reasons that I can tell this is a taste list is that I just barely remember some of Savoy's bands' names, and some of them ("Peaches and Herb") I actively disliked, where there is no band on Ilieam's list that I dislike. But still, there is NO doubting Parliament/Funkadelic (Ooo! Savoy! Chance to ask a question I've never gotten an answer about - I've heard that George Clinton actually got his start as a doo-wop artist with a band called "The Parliaments" and that all the wonderful funk stuff just sort of evolved from that doo-wop start. You might know if this is true....). I also liked Village People and Chaka Khan, and I do remember fondly Otis Day's cover of Shout (I think the original is the Isely Brothers, although there is a song of the same name by Ernie Mareska, who was Dion and the Belmonts' songwriter). But, in general, I don't much like soul, and I love hard rock. That's just taste, not quality. Based on your lists, I would say that both of you have good taste within your parameters. - Brock Hanke

Brock, I wasn't listing the music according to my personal taste. I was just offended by the lack of any black music on Ileam's list. Typical white guy who doesn't even realize that black music exists.

Actually I don't even like much of the music from the 1970s. My favorite stuff is from 1951-1958. My favorite artist is Fats Domino.

Here's my own list of favorites from 1978.

MY TOP 35 RECORDINGS FROM 1978
1 ¦ Who Do You Love ¦ George Thorogood
2 ¦ Move It On Over ¦ George Thorogood
3 ¦ Pump It Up ¦ Elvis Costello
4 ¦ Heart Of Glass ¦ Blondie
5 ¦ That Same Thing ¦ George Thorogood
6 ¦ I Love The Nightlife ¦ Alicia Bridges
7 ¦ Badlands ¦ Bruce Springsteen
8 ¦ I Wanna Be Sedated ¦ Ramones
9 ¦ Blondes Have More Fun ¦ Rod Stewart
10 ¦ I Will Survive ¦ Gloria Gaynor
11 ¦ Hey Bartender ¦ Blues Brothers
12 ¦ Shout ¦ Otis Day & Knights
13 ¦ So Much Trouble ¦ George Thorogood
14 ¦ Trouble Boys ¦ Dave Edmunds
15 ¦ Old Time Rock And Roll ¦ Bob Seger
16 ¦ Werewolves Of London ¦ Warren Zevon
17 ¦ Far Away Eyes ¦ Rolling Stones
18 ¦ YMCA ¦ Village People
19 ¦ The Way I Walk ¦ Robert Gordon
20 ¦ Time Passages ¦ Al Stewart
21 ¦ Miss You ¦ Rolling Stones
22 ¦ Five Days, Five Days ¦ Robert Gordon
23 ¦ Back In The U.S.A. ¦ Linda Ronstadt
24 ¦ I'm In Love Again ¦ Carl Perkins
25 ¦ Rock Lobster ¦ B-52s
26 ¦ It's A Heartache ¦ Bonnie Tyler
27 ¦ Beast Of Burden ¦ Rolling Stones
28 ¦ Radio Radio ¦ Elvis Costello
29 ¦ Le Freak ¦ Chic
30 ¦ Funky But Chic ¦ David Johansen
31 ¦ My Best Friend's Girl ¦ Cars
32 ¦ One Way Or Another ¦ Blondie
33 ¦ Shama Lama Ding Dong ¦ Otis Day & Knights
34 ¦ Hit Me With Your Rhythm Stick ¦ Ian Dury & Blockheads
35 ¦ Warm Leatherette ¦ The Normal

And yes, George Clinton started out in a doo wop group called the Parliaments. They came out of Plainfield, NJ. One of the members of his group (Gary Shider) was the brother of a college friend of mine, who also sings. Gary stayed with them all through the funk years and was inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall Of Fame with the band. He died a few years ago.

SavoyBG: Geez, dude, take it easy! I'm a huge fan of late 70s punk rock. I'm a bit puzzled that you're offended by "the lack of any black music" on my list.
And I especially appreciate the insulting tone of your comments. Thanks for the civility.

Typical white guy who doesn't even realize that black music exists.

Liking punk more than disco doesn't make you a racist. I don't really like the tone either.

Getting back to baseball, I'm curious about other people's opinions on the relative strength of the two leagues around this time. In 1978, I was a 10-year-old Orioles fan so (a) like most 10-year-olds, I never really thought about whether the AL or NL was stronger, and (b) if anybody had asked me, I'd probably have argued AL because that's the league the Orioles played in; and, of course, the AL team won the World Series in 1977 and 1978. But if I remember correctly, the NL was in the midst of a long All-Star Game winning streak at this time, and, in retrospect, it seems like the NL was most likely the stronger league. But I don't have a good feel for how much better.

My preliminary ballot (#24) has AL players in the top 3 slots and in 8 of the 13 slots overall, and I'm wondering if maybe I need to do a league-strength adjustment to that, perhaps sliding Parker ahead of at least Otis (and maybe Rice?) and maybe sliding an NL player onto the ballot instead of Palmer (and maybe Matlack?) - although I'm not sure who that would be.

Is there anybody who would be inclined to argue that the NL was a lot stronger than the AL at this time? Or is the consensus that any difference in league strength would be more along the lines of a tiebreaker?

I think the all-star game results are a poor barometer (one game per year, and the NL players for a while cared more). By 82 the NL felt superior after taking 4 straight WS, but by 78 the AL had won 5 of 7.

In Pete Palmer's Hidden Game (1983), his analysis of people who switched leagues showed the AL overtaking the NL in batting skill i the late 70s after the NL had led by a large margin in the 50s and 60s, but I am suspicious of his ##s because the AL 'jumped up' in 73 (DH). But for what it is worth, Palmer showed in 78 that NL batters should add .003 pts of SLG, relative to the league, to match an AL total.

Typical white guy who doesn't even realize that black music exists.


Liking punk more than disco doesn't make you a racist. I don't really like the tone either.

First off. there's lots of black music from 1978 that is not disco.

NOBODY is calling anybody a racist. This is a cultural thing. Most people listen mainly to music done by people from their own race. And it's not just that he likes new wave BETTER than disco, it's more like he ONLY likes white music. There was not one black artist on his list.

If I'm wrong he can always list some black artists that he listens to

Stevie Wonder?
Ray Charles
Temptations
James Brown

Ilieam and SavoyBG -

MAN, do you have different tastes in music.

Our differences are much bigger than you think. Here is a list of my 100 favorite recording artists of all time:


1 - Fats Domino
2 - Elvis Presley
3 - Little Richard
4 - Hank Williams
5 - Joe Turner
6 - Drifters
7 - Muddy Waters
8 - Smiley Lewis
9 - Clovers
10 - Carl Perkins
11 - Beatles
12 - Buddy Holly & Crickets
13 - B.B. King
14 - Bo Diddley
15 - Hank Ballard & Midnighters / Royals
16 - Chuck Berry
17 - James Brown
18 - Howlin' Wolf
19 - Wynonie Harris
20 - Robins
21 - Orioles
22 - Five Royales
23 - Creedence Clearwater Revival / John Fogerty
24 - Five Keys
25 - Ray Charles
26 - Rolling Stones
27 - Beach Boys
28 - Jerry Lee Lewis
29 - Spaniels
30 - Temptations
31 - Elmore James
32 - Bobby "Blue" Bland
33 - Sonny Boy Williamson II (Rice Miller)
34 - Sticks McGhee
35 - Huey "Piano" Smith and the Clowns
36 - Dominoes
37 - Johnny Burnette Trio
38 - Louis Jordan
39 - Spiders
40 - Flamingos
41 - Moonglows
42 - Coasters
43 - Curtis Mayfield & Impressions
44 - Eddie Cochran
45 - Lloyd Price
46 - Bill Haley & Comets
47 - Buddy & Ella Johnson
48 - Ivory Joe Hunter
49 - Swallows
50 - Little Walter
51 - Jimmy Reed
52 - Everly Brothers
53 - Gene Vincent & Blue Caps
54 - Johnny Cash
55 - Amos Milburn
56 - Roy Brown
57 - Jack Scott
58 - El Dorados
59 - Dave Bartholomew
60 - Champion Jack Dupree
61 - Roy Orbison
62 - Smokey Robinson & Miracles
63 - Checkers
64 - Jimmy McCracklin
65 - Little Esther
66 - Eddie "Cleanhead" Vinson
67 - Marvin Gaye
68 - Tommy James & Shondells
69 - Jackie Wilson
70 - Mills Brothers
71 - Ruth Brown
72 - Bob Dylan
73 - Shirley & Lee
74 - Aretha Franklin
75 - Dells
76 - Wilson Pickett
77 - Little Milton
78 - Marvin & Johnny (Jesse & Marvin)
79 - Heartbeats / Shep & Limelites
80 - Harptones
81 - Doors
82 - Little Willie John
83 - Ravens
84 - Marty Robbins
85 - Lamplighters
86 - Willie Mabon
87 - Guitar Slim
88 - Solomon Burke
89 - Jerry Butler
90 - Roy Milton
91 - Rosco Gordon
92 - Charlie Feathers
93 - Penguins
94 - J.B. Lenore
95 - Big Maybelle
96 - Cadillacs
97 - Chuck Willis
98 - Mac Curtis
99 - Cardinals
100 - Slim Harpo

Well, SavoyBG, you should love next year when we cover the 50s.

Favorites of mine that haven't been mentioned

Kraftwerk - The Man-Machine
Devo - Are We Not Men?
Willie Nelson and Waylon Jennings - Waylon and Willie
Willie Nelson - Stardust (pretty good year for Willie)
Talking Heads - More Songs About Buildings and Food
Joy Division - An Ideal For Living
Magazine - Real Life
Cheap Trick - Heaven Tonight
David Bowie - Stage
Tom Waits - Blue Valentine
Ramones - Road to Ruin
Pere Ubu - Dub Housing
Pere Ubu - The Modern Dance

Stuff that's okay
The Cars - S/T
Brian Eno - Music for Films
Black Flag - Nervous Breakdown
Throbbing Gristle - DOA Third And Final Report

and ones that have been mentioned
Elvis Costello - This Year's Model
Wire - Chairs Missing
Buzzcocks - Another Music in a Different Kitchen
Buzzcocks - Love Bites (those two plus Magazine - good year!!)
Jam - All the Mod Cons
Clash - Give Em Enough Rope

Regarding black music in 1978 - it was very focused on singles, not many good albums. I like the George Clinton albums the best that year.

Most people listen mainly to music done by people from their own race.

And gender, apparently.

Regarding black music in 1978 - it was very focused on singles, not many good albums. I like the George Clinton albums the best that year.

I've never been an album listener.

But for those who are, here are some of the good black albums from 1978:

One Nation Under A Groove - Funkadelic
Bob Marley - Babylon by Bus
Marvin Gaye - Here, My Dear
Bob Marley - Kaya
Chic - C'est Chic
Muddy Waters - I'm Ready
O.V. Wright - The Bottom Line
Bootsy's Rubber Band - Bootsy? Player of the Year
The Jacksons - Destiny
George Benson - Weekend in L.A.

Savoy - I take back anything I said about your having any limits in taste. You seem to like anything, as long as it's well done. Also, I'm 65, and started listening seriously to rock and roll in 1960 (The Twist, I am embarrassed to say, is the song that got me started). You have several bands on your list in #54 that were already on the oldies shows when I started listening (The Spaniels and The Clovers, to start with, most of Fats Domino). Were these just old bands that you picked up on, or do you go WAY back? The only arguments about that period that your list would get from me are that I think The Chiffons were the best of all the girl bands and should be on the list, and I'd rate The Coasters (the best doo-wop band, IMO) higher than you. Other than that, it's one hell of a list, except that my obsessive love of acid rock would add about 20 acid rock bands (Hendrix, Cream, The Who, Big Brother) to your list, along with some Goth/Industrial (Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds, Sisters of Mercy, Rasputina, Voltaire). - Brock

DL - Were you in college in 1978, listening to your school's radio station? If not, how did you ever find out about Joy Division, Magazine and Pere Ubu that early? And what do Wire and Jam sound like? I've never heard of either of them. - Brock

High School senior in 1978. Began listening to Christian Contemporary (the mag CCM was born that year). Don Francisco's "He's Alive" can still give me chills.

In 1978 my contemporary favorite album of that era almost certainly involved singing Muppets. All my lists have 20 years of hindsight before I heard any of it. I was a college radio DJ in 1998.

Wire is arty-punk-noise that has influenced modern rock from REM to Radiohead. Elastica aped their early sound well enough to get sued. Start with Pink Flag.

The Jam fits well into the mix of Kinks, early Who, Animals, etc. It's British invasion updated for a post-Ramones world. You have heard this stuff in advertising but probably never picked it out of the background.

Interetsingly, our three young adult children all listen to classic rock (among other eclectic tastes). They now know more 70s music than I do.

Back to baseball, everyone else really likes Doug DeCinces more than I do. I have him behind Ron Cey, Mike Schmidt, Darrell Evans, Graig Nettles and Sal Bando at 3B. He's only slightly ahead of George Brett. Dan R has his defense as average.

To contrast, I have Davey Lopes and Bill Madlock as the best second basemen in 1978 and nobody else has voted for either of them.

And gender, apparently.

Yeah, I've never understood why women in music don't appeal to me as much. There are albums by women in my collection but generally it's men. I generally find a pleasant female singing voice to be really dull.

Re65:
It was a weak year for second basemen. I looked at Madlock in the NL and Randolph in the AL but neither came especially close to my ballot.

Savoy - I take back anything I said about your having any limits in taste. You seem to like anything, as long as it's well done. Also, I'm 65, and started listening seriously to rock and roll in 1960 (The Twist, I am embarrassed to say, is the song that got me started). You have several bands on your list in #54 that were already on the oldies shows when I started listening (The Spaniels and The Clovers, to start with, most of Fats Domino). Were these just old bands that you picked up on, or do you go WAY back?

BJ, the Spaniels and Clovers are NOT "bands," they are vocal groups.

And why would you be embarrassed about "The Twist," it's a great record.

I was born in 1957, but my favorite year for music is 1956. Here's my 100 favorite songs of all time:

MY 100 FAVORITE RECORDINGS OF ALL TIME:
1 ¦ Shake, Rattle And Roll ¦ Joe Turner - 54
2 ¦ I'm In Love Again ¦ Fats Domino - 56
3 ¦ Long Tall Sally ¦ Little Richard - 56
4 ¦ Don't Go No Farther ¦ Muddy Waters - 56
5 ¦ Honey Hush ¦ Johnny Burnette Trio - 56
6 ¦ Rub A Little Boogie ¦ Champion Jack Dupree - 54
7 ¦ Spoonful ¦ Howlin' Wolf - 60
8 ¦ Tutti-Frutti ¦ Little Richard - 55
9 ¦ Midnight Cannonball ¦ Joe Turner - 55
10 ¦ What About Your Daughter? ¦ J.B. Lenoir - 57
11 ¦ Gumbo Blues ¦ Smiley Lewis - 52
12 ¦ Rockin' Pneumonia And The Boogie Woogie Flu ¦ Huey "Piano" Smith - 57
13 ¦ My Babe ¦ Little Walter - 55
14 ¦ Have Mercy Baby ¦ Dominoes - 52
15 ¦ Good Rocking Tonight ¦ Elvis Presley - 54
16 ¦ Head Happy With Wine ¦ Sticks McGhee - 53
17 ¦ Matchbox ¦ Carl Perkins - 57
18 ¦ The Train Kept A'Rollin' ¦ Johnny Burnette Trio - 56
19 ¦ Before You Accuse Me ¦ Bo Diddley - 57
20 ¦ Money Honey ¦ Drifters - 53
21 ¦ Bo Diddley ¦ Bo Diddley - 55
22 ¦ Blue Monday ¦ Fats Domino - 56
23 ¦ Roll Over Beethoven ¦ Chuck Berry - 56
24 ¦ All Mama's Children ¦ Carl Perkins - 56
25 ¦ End Of The Road ¦ Jerry Lee Lewis - 56
26 ¦ Think ¦ Five Royales - 57
27 ¦ Dark Is The Night (part 1) ¦ B.B. King - 56
28 ¦ Baby I Need You ¦ El Dorados - 54
29 ¦ Stand By Me ¦ Guitar Slim - 55
30 ¦ Modern Don Juan ¦ Buddy Holly - 56
31 ¦ One Hand Loose ¦ Charlie Feathers - 56
32 ¦ Moanin' The Blues ¦ Hank Williams - 50
33 ¦ All By Myself ¦ Johnny Burnette Trio - 56
34 ¦ Whatcha Gonna Do ¦ Drifters - 55
35 ¦ I'm Left, You're Right, She's Gone ¦ Elvis Presley - 55
36 ¦ Too Much Lovin' ¦ Five Royales - 53
37 ¦ Honey Hush ¦ Joe Turner - 53
38 ¦ I Don't Care If The Sun Don't Shine ¦ Elvis Presley - 54
39 ¦ Ain't Nothing You Can Do ¦ Bobby Bland - 64
40 ¦ That'll Be The Day ¦ Crickets - 57
41 ¦ Gone, Gone, Gone ¦ Carl Perkins - 55
42 ¦ Folsom Prison Blues ¦ Johnny Cash - 55
43 ¦ If You Love Me (Let Me Know) ¦ Clovers - 55
44 ¦ I'm Ready ¦ Muddy Waters - 54
45 ¦ Don't You Know I Love You ¦ Clovers - 51
46 ¦ It Will Stand ¦ Showmen - 61
47 ¦ I Need Your Lovin' ¦ Don Gardner & Dee Dee Ford - 62
48 ¦ Honky Tonk Blues ¦ Hank Williams - 52
49 ¦ Slippin' And Slidin' ¦ Little Richard - 56
50 ¦ Fever ¦ Little Willie John - 56
51 ¦ I Was Wrong ¦ Moonglows - 54
52 ¦ Dixie Fried ¦ Carl Perkins - 56
53 ¦ Down In Virginia ¦ Jimmy Reed - 58
54 ¦ It'll Be Me (LP version) ¦ Jerry Lee Lewis - 58
55 ¦ Someday ¦ Smiley Lewis - 56
56 ¦ School Day ¦ Chuck Berry - 57
57 ¦ Great Balls Of Fire ¦ Jerry Lee Lewis - 57
58 ¦ Annie Had A Baby ¦ Midnighters - 54
59 ¦ Blue Moon Of Kentucky ¦ Elvis Presley - 54
60 ¦ Bye Bye Love ¦ Everly Brothers - 57
61 ¦ Big Mamou ¦ Smiley Lewis - 53
62 ¦ Feel So Good ¦ Shirley & Lee - 55
63 ¦ Boogin' In The Rain ¦ Ivory Joe Hunter - 51
64 ¦ Lovesick Blues ¦ Hank Williams - 49
65 ¦ Lawdy Miss Clawdy ¦ Lloyd Price - 52
66 ¦ Blue Suede Shoes ¦ Carl Perkins - 56
67 ¦ You're So Fine ¦ Falcons - 59
68 ¦ Your Daddy's Dogging Around ¦ Todd Rhodes w/ Connie Allen - 52
69 ¦ Flip, Flop And Fly ¦ Joe Turner - 55
70 ¦ Shake That Thing ¦ Wynonie Harris - 54
71 ¦ No Need Acting Like That ¦ Mamie Ree (unreleased track)- 55
72 ¦ Rip It Up ¦ Little Richard - 56
73 ¦ Bottle To The Baby ¦ Charlie Feathers - 56
74 ¦ Tear It Up ¦ Johnny Burnette Trio - 56
75 ¦ My Lovin' Baby ¦ El Dorados - 54
76 ¦ Please Love Me ¦ B.B. King - 53
77 ¦ Move Baby Move ¦ Larry Harrison - 55
78 ¦ Keep A'Knockin' ¦ Little Richard - 57
79 ¦ Why Don't You Love Me ¦ Hank Williams - 50
80 ¦ Well All Right ¦ Joe Turner - 54
81 ¦ Lonesome Train ¦ Johnny Burnette Trio - 56
82 ¦ Just Make Love To Me ¦ Muddy Waters - 54
83 ¦ House Party ¦ Amos Milburn - 55
84 ¦ Good Bread Alley ¦ Eddie "Cleanhead" Vinson - 52
85 ¦ Whole Lotta Shakin' Goin' On ¦ Roy Hall - 55
86 ¦ Wrap It Up ¦ Robins - 54
87 ¦ Good Rockin' Tonight ¦ Wynonie Harris - 48
88 ¦ Diddley Daddy ¦ Bo Diddley - 55
89 ¦ Good Golly Miss Molly ¦ Little Richard - 58
90 ¦ Nip Sip ¦ Clovers - 55
91 ¦ You're My Big Baby Now ¦ Roy Moss - 55
92 ¦ Jim Dandy ¦ LaVern Baker - 56
93 ¦ Shake, Rattle And Roll ¦ Bill Haley & Comets - 54
94 ¦ All Shook Up ¦ Elvis Presley - 57
95 ¦ Six To Eight ¦ Sticks McGhee - 55
96 ¦ Drinking Wine Spo-Dee-O-Dee, Drinking Wine ¦ Johnny Burnette Trio - 56
97 ¦ That Ain't Nothing But Right ¦ Mac Curtis - 56
98 ¦ Doing It To Death ¦ Fred Wesley & J.B.'s - 73
99 ¦ Hoochie Coochie Man ¦ Muddy Waters - 54
100 ¦ Whole Lot of Shakin' Going On ¦ Jerry Lee Lewis - 57

By the way, the name SavoyBG comes from the Savoy record label, my grandfather, Herman Lubinsky was the owner. My cousin TJ Lubinsky, is that guy who produces all of those music shows on PBS.

Savoy - Thanks. You are ten years younger than me, which means you researched this stuff up as oldies. I have a friend named Jim who is like that, He's younger than me, too, but he knows pretty much everything that is even cited as an influence on Rock and Roll. He was introduced to me because he told someone that he was looking for an album by the old acid-rock band Love, and I was the only guy in the Goth scene who was old enough to remember who they were. I do, in fact, have a complete set of Love albums, but I told him to get Forever Changes, because it's the best of them. He got all five, eventually. He was the guy who told me that guitar distortion by slicing the speaker cones, was invented by Link Wray (sp?), who was doing a version of Rawhide, if I remember right. Before then, everyone told me that it was Dave Davies of the Kinks. Dealing with you is a lot like dealing with him. You know a lot more than I do about a period when I was listening to lot of R&R, and you were still too young. BTW, yes, I did know that The Spaniels and The Clovers (and The Chiffons and The Coasters for that matter) did not play their own instruments. This was so common at the time that I have slipped into the habit of just calling those acts "bands", even though I know it's just their vocals over a studio musician band. Actually, I think The Beatles may have had a part in getting rid of that idea and playing your own instruments. They and the other British Invasion bands. But America had already started the genre "Garage Rock" (which was actually called "punk at the time; the modern genre name Punk actually derives from that era, through Iggy and the Stooges). And those bands played their own instruments, sometimes not too well.

Oh, and props to your friend who was with George Clinton during the P/Funk period. I saw that gang live. There was nobody just keeping time. Everyone was further advanced than that. If your friend could hold his own in that crowd, he's good enough for me. - Brock

By the way, the name SavoyBG comes from the Savoy record label, my grandfather, Herman Lubinsky was the owner. My cousin TJ Lubinsky, is that guy who produces all of those music shows on PBS.

I thought it had something to do with Savoy Brown, but given your tastes, it's obviously not that.

He was the guy who told me that guitar distortion by slicing the speaker cones, was invented by Link Wray (sp?), who was doing a version of Rawhide, if I remember right.

He was wrong. the first intentional use of guitar distortion came from the Johnny Burnette Trio in 1956. A loose tube in the guitarist's amp made the guitar sound different and they liked how it sounded so they went with it.

Johnny Burnette Trio

@SavoyBG-
well, there's no denying that most of the music I listen to is made by whites. But the fact that my top dozen or so albums in 1978 are by white artists (I think all male led UK artists... not exactly diverse! Oh, one male led australian band as well...) doesn't mean I don't listen to any black artists. We're in the late 70s now, and probably my favorite black artists (or at least bands with prominent black members) of the era would be ska revival bands The English Beat and The Specials. Hmm... I was going to add Bad Brains in but looks like their classic 1st album didn't come out until 1982.

All time favorite black artist? Not sure off thetop off my head... I'd probably say Arthur Lee as I love the Love album Forever Changes (especially). Probably one of my two favorite albums from the 60s (with the other being The Kinks Are The Village Green Preservation Society).

The 50s are an era I want to learn more about but my usual musical introduction are albums... so I tend to get stymied about where to start in the 50s. Probably the only album I own by artists from the 50s is a Little Richard album. (Number 3 on your all time list, I see... probably my favorite in your top 10).

I still think you were overly snide to me earlier... but I do plan on checking out stuff from your lists (I'm a list junky myself).

All time favorite black artist? Not sure off the top off my head... I'd probably say Arthur Lee as I love the Love album Forever Changes (especially).

Who is your favorite artist who actually made BLACK MUSIC?

Arthur Lee and Hendrix were black guys who made white music. Neither of them ever had a hit on the Black charts.

Do you like any of these people?

Michael Jackson / Jackson 5
Louis Armstrong
James Brown
Billie Holiday
Duke Ellington
Ray Charles
Aretha Franklin
B.B. King
Muddy Waters
Stevie Wonder
Charlie Parker
Miles Davis
Louis Jordan
John Coltrane
Bessie Smith
Mahalia Jackson
Marvin Gaye
Sam Cooke
Temptations
Drifters / Clyde McPhatter / Ben E. King
Prince
Otis Redding
Smokey Robinson and the Miracles
Howlin' Wolf
Run-D.M.C.
Public Enemy

The 50s are an era I want to learn more about but my usual musical introduction are albums

Rock and roll Albums were insignificant in the 50s. But any 50s artist that you want to check out is widely represented on youtube.

I work for a site called Digital Dream Door. There's all kinds of music lists on the site. You should check it out.

DDD

Who is your favorite artist who actually made BLACK MUSIC?
Arthur Lee and Hendrix were black guys who made white music. Neither of them ever had a hit on the Black charts.

Oh, for God's sake.

Savoy has a point about Arthur Lee and Hendrix. Jimi was making full-bore acid rock, while Love (the band Arthur Lee fronted) were billed as the "next Doors." Richie Havens sounds a lot like a white folk band. But then, The Who, The Stones and Cream did blues covers (Cream did a LOT of them), so the distinction between "black" and "white" music wasn't very strong in acid rock. I mean, we were a bunch of hippies who were all in favor of integration. You'd get odd bills like B. B. King opening for Jefferson Airplane. Great shows, if you're willing to listen to just about any genre, which we were (Taj Mahal and Sun Ra were staples of acid rock festivals).

I'm not abut to get into an argument over whether Link Wray or Jimmy Burnett "invented" guitar distortion first, because I don't know enough about either band. If you show up in STL some time, I'll try to get you and Jim together and probably double my knowledge of 1950s music. You may differ on the method. Jim was talking specifically about slicing the speakers; you're talking about a different method of getting distortion. I have no idea which song was first.

My favorite black artist playing indisputably black music is Willie Dixon, but then, I'm a sucker for a great bass player.

In the 1950s and early 1960s (I was there for this transition, so I do think I have a clue here), music was sold to teenagers as singles. Albums were an afterthought for complete junkies who would buy anything by the artist they loved. This business model, at least according to my parents, went back to the Frank Sinatra bobbysoxer period (my mom was one of those girls). A typical album contained The Hit, the B-side, and about ten more songs probably knocked out in a day or two in the studio. The biggest hurdle for albums to clear was that they were played at 33 1/3 RPM, while singles were 45 RPM. The higher the RPM, the better the sound quality (78 RPM is for classical; 16 2/3 RPM was for spoken word). Better record players - and then stereo - were also drivers of the album revolution, because singles no longer sounded better than the album version of the same song. One of the biggest drivers of the transition to selling music to teenagers as albums first was the Beatles first album, "Meet The Beatles." It was probably not intended to be what it ended up being, but what it comprised was a collection of all the Beatles' early hits, when they were a boy band. The album was cheaper than getting all those singles, and that started teenagers thinking about buying whole albums of great acts, buying "best of" albums from fading bands like Dion. The next driver was acid rock, where the bands, being full of acid, tended to play 5-20 minute jam versions of their songs, and using those as the recordings. "Light My Fire" and "In-A-Gadda-da-Vida" were the two biggest examples of this. Those two songs were so popular that they actually got AM radio play time, but AM radio didn't want any songs longer than 3 minutes 30 seconds, so they cut out most of the instrumental parts of both songs. In "Light My Fire" this is almost tolerable, because the song isn't that long anyway, but "In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida" runs 17 minutes uncut.

Then Jefferson Airplane (Volunteers of America) came up with the idea of a concept album (I think they were just ahead of a few other bands), and Pete Townsend invented the rock opera genre with Tommy, and suddenly albums were an art form of their own, with artsy covers instead of photos of the band, and extended liner notes and whatnot. I still have a lot of singles left over from my teenage years, including the single of Louie Louie that has "f**k" in it, which a Congressional committee could not find (it's just shouted out in one of the pauses in instrument noise; the Congressmen thought it was concealed somewhere. No, it's right out there in front of you).

It being now very obvious that Savoy has studied music a LOT more than I have, I'm going to shut up now. The pop cultural stuff is about all I'm going to know that Savoy might not. - Brock

It seems a little silly to say Chuck Berry played "black" music and Jimi Hendrix played "white" music when they both played "rock" music. It's also silly to go after a person for not liking "black" music when he just said he really liked ska. Ska is clearly black music played mostly by white people.

Thank goodness nobody I know talks about music in terms of "black" and "white". The crossing over is all done crossing.

All time favorite black artist?

Robert Cray.

Iileam - I just had a thought for you. If you want to get a real good sampler of rock from the early periods, check out the series of "Nuggets" CDs put out by Rhino records. Basically, each band with a hit in the time period gets one song, so you get all the variety. Well worth it.

Miserlou - Can't argue with Robert Cray. One of the greatest bluesmen.

DL - About Chuck Berry, I agree with you. It is my opinion that Berry was the first Rock and Roll songwriter to realize that what the Rock and Roll audience wanted was stories of their lives - the lives of frustrated high-school kids. It is also my opinion that the main difference between Blues and Rock is that blues always has the overhang of mild despair. The songs were written and performed by people who were living in poverty in the Deep South, originally. When they woke up tomorrow, the main governing factor of their lives was going to be their skin color. Rock is about adolescent revolt, so you don't get an overhang of mild despair (sometimes stronger, depending on the blues artist), but an undercurrent of frustration at not being adult yet, and so having less freedom than they want. Rock is harder than pure blues, because a white teenager can afford to let his anger show without nearly as much retribution as a black man would receive. So, yes, in many ways Chuck was doing "white" music, although I imagine that black teenagers got the message, too. - Brock

get a real good sampler of rock from the early periods

I think SavoyBG should create a Pandora station. I'd subscribe to that one.

I have no idea which song was first.

The Burnette record was 1956, the Link Wray was 1959. The guitarist with Burnette was Paul Burlison, although some sources say that the recording was made by a studio guitarist.

Then Jefferson Airplane (Volunteers of America) came up with the idea of a concept album (I think they were just ahead of a few other bands),

The first concept albums were some of Sinatra's 50s albums, and also some jazz albums.

1940s and 1950s
Woody Guthrie's Dust Bowl Ballads (1940) is considered one of the first concept albums, consisting of semi-autobiographical songs about the hardships of American migrant laborers during the 1930s.

In the early 1950s, before the advent of rock and roll, concept albums were prevalent in jazz music. Singer Frank Sinatra recorded several concepts albums, including In the Wee Small Hours (1955; songs about loneliness and heartache), Come Fly with Me (1958; songs about world travel). Singer/pianist Nat King Cole's concept albums include Everytime I Feel The Spirit (1958; gospel and spiritual songs) and After Midnight (1956; collaborations with jazz instrumentalists in the style of late-night jam sessions).

After finding success with stand-alone singles, country icon Johnny Cash turned to themed albums, such as Songs of Our Soil (1959; songs about death and mortality) and Blood, Sweat and Tears (album) (1963; songs about blue-collar workers).

As for concept albums in rock.....

1960s
Since Colorful Ventures (1961), The Ventures became known for releasing concept albums, including surf music, country, outer space, television themes, and psychedelic music. Ray Charles' Modern Sounds in Country and Western Music departed from his well-known R&B and soul style to record an entire album of country and western material.

In 1966, several albums were deemed as concept albums by their thematically-linked songs, and became inspiration for other artists to follow. The Beach Boys' Pet Sounds portrayed Brian Wilson's state of mind at the time, and was in turn a major inspiration to Paul McCartney. Album writers Brian Wilson and Tony Asher insist that the narrative was not intended, though Wilson has stated that the idea of the record being a "concept album" is mainly within the way the album was produced and structured. Later in 1966, Wilson began work on Smile, an intentional narrative, though it was scrapped and later revived in November 2011. Freak Out!, Frank Zappa and the Mothers of Invention's sardonic farce about rock music and America as a whole, and Face to Face by The Kinks, the first collection of Ray Davies's idiosyncratic character studies of ordinary people, are conceptually oriented albums. However, of the three, only Pet Sounds attracted a large commercial audience.

The Beatles' Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band (1967) would later bring about the notion of the concept album, with the earlier prototypes and examples from traditional pop music and other genres sometimes forgotten. Original reception described the album as a concept by select definitions of the term. There was, at some stage during the making of the album an attempt to relate the material to firstly the idea of aging, then as an obscure radio play about the life of an ex-army bandsman and his shortcomings. These concepts were lost in the final production. While debate exists over the extent to which Sgt. Pepper qualifies as a true concept album, there is no doubt that its reputation as such helped inspire other artists to produce concept albums of their own, and inspired the public to anticipate them. Lennon and McCartney distanced themselves from the "concept album" tag as applied to that album.

Days of Future Passed, released the same year as Sgt. Pepper's, was fellow UK musicians The Moody Blues' first foray into the concept album. Originally presented with an opportunity to rock out Dvo?ák's Symphony No. 9 "From the New World" by their new stereophonic label, the band instead forged ahead to unify their own orchestral-based threads of a day in the life of a common man.

The Who Sell Out by The Who followed with its concept of a pirate radio broadcast. Within the record, joke commercials recorded by the band and actual jingles from recently outlawed pirate radio station Radio London were interspersed between the songs, ranging from pop songs to hard rock and psychedelic rock, culminating with a mini-opera titled "Rael."[8]

In October 1967, the British group Nirvana released The Story of Simon Simopath (subtitled "A Science Fiction Pantomime"), an album that tells the story of the title character. It was only a moderate commercial success. The album S.F. Sorrow (released in December 1968) by British group the Pretty Things is generally considered to be among the first creatively successful rock concept albums - in that each song is part of an overarching unified concept – the life story of the main character, Sebastian Sorrow.

Released in April 1969, was the rock opera Tommy composed by Pete Townshend and performed by The Who. This acclaimed work was presented over two discs (unusual at the time) and it took the idea of thematically based albums to a much higher appreciation by both critics and the public. It was also the first story-based concept album of the rock era (as distinct from the song-cycle style album) to enjoy commercial success. The Who went on to further explorations of the concept album format with their follow-up project Lifehouse, which was abandoned before completion, and with their 1973 rock opera, Quadrophenia.

Five months after the release of Tommy, The Kinks released another concept album, Arthur (Or the Decline and Fall of the British Empire) (September 1969), written by Ray Davies; though considered by some a rock opera, it was originally conceived as the score for a proposed but never realised BBC television drama. It was the first of several concept albums released by the band through the first few years of the 1970s. These were: Lola Versus Powerman and the Moneygoround, Part One (1970), Muswell Hillbillies (1971), Preservation: Act 1 (1973), Preservation: Act 2 (1974), Soap Opera (1975) and Schoolboys in Disgrace (1976).

Ska is clearly black music played mostly by white people.

There are FAR more ska records by blacks than by whites. You are just not aware of them. Most of them are from the 1960s.

I assume you know the band Madness. The two most popular songs on their first album (Madness, One Step Beyond) were remakes of songs done first by Prince Buster in 1963 and 1964.

Madness - Prince Buster

One Step Beyond - Prince Buster

There are FAR more ska records by blacks than by whites.

Is that still true in the last 20 years? Of course ska records from 1964 are going to be from black artists. Ska records from 2004 are most likely not.

Is that still true in the last 20 years? Of course ska records from 1964 are going to be from black artists. Ska records from 2004 are most likely not.

Like most hip genres, (blues, rock, hip hop, swing, funk) they are started by blacks and then years later whites jump on the bandwagon and try and commadeer the genre as their own.

Take my word for it, throughout the course of history there are FAR more ska records by black artists than by white artists.

To give you an example of my credentials, I was hired by the rock and roll hall of fame last year to fact check the inductee bios on their website. I found over 500 errors on the site. Some of the errors were so glaring, it would be like if Mickey Mantle's bio said that he played for the White Sox.

try and commandeer the genre as their own

You seem to imply that there is something wrong with that. Nearly all new musical sub-genres come from a certain location or scene and spread to the world. There are "hip genres" (techno) that were started by whites and spread the other direction. My comment about ska being "played mostly by white people" was referring to the present.

I don't know if anyone can lay full claim to rock. The C&W influence is almost as strong as the R&B.

When Alan Freed first coined the term "rock and roll" (1952) the music he was playing was almost 100% being done by blacks. It wasn't til a few years later that whites jumped on the bandwagon.

The C&W influence in rock is mainly just on other white artists, who did not come along until several years after rock and roll started.

Here's the kind of stuff that freed was playing as "rock and roll" in 1952. Not too many white acts.

Lawdy Miss Clawdy Lloyd Price
Have Mercy Baby Dominoes
One Mint Julep Clovers
Night Train Jimmy Forrest
My Song Johnny Ace
Goin' Home Fats Domino
Juke Little Walter
Baby Don't Do It "5" Royales
5-10-15 Hours Ruth Brown
I Don't Know Willie Mabon
I Believe Elmore James
K.C. Lovin' Little Willie Littlefield
Ting-A-Ling Clovers
The Bells Dominoes
Dream Girl Jesse & Marvin
No More Doggin' Rosco Gordon
That's What You're Doing To Me Dominoes
I'd Be Satisfied Dominoes
I'm Gone Shirley & Lee
I'll Drown In My Tears Sonny Thompson (Lula Reed)
Five Long Years Eddie Boyd
She Moves Me Muddy Waters
Big Ten Inch Record Moose Jackson
Heavenly Father Edna McGriff with Buddy Lucas
You Know I Love You B.B. King
Rocket 69 Todd Rhodes (Connie Allen)
Hey Miss Fannie Clovers
Middle Of The Night Clovers
Beside You Swallows
Sad Hours Little Walter
My Story Chuck Willis
Nine Below Zero Sonny Boy Williamson
Sweet Sixteen Joe Turner
I Played The Fool Clovers
Keep On Churnin' Wynonie Harris
Mailman Blues Lloyd Price
New Blowtop Blues Dinah Washington

There are "hip genres" (techno) that were started by whites and spread the other direction.

Techno was started by blacks, the Belleville Three.

The Belleville Three

The initial blueprint for techno developed during the mid-1980s in Belleville, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit by Juan Atkins, Kevin Saunderson, Derrick May (the so-called Belleville Three), all of whom attended school together at Belleville High, with the addition of Eddie Fowlkes, Blake Baxter and James Pennington. By the close of the 1980s, the pioneers had recorded and released material under various guises: Atkins as Model 500, Flintstones, and Magic Juan; Fowlkes simply as Eddie "Flashin" Fowlkes; Saunderson as Reese, Keynotes, and Kaos; with May as Mayday, R-Tyme, and Rhythim Is Rhythim. There were also a number of joint ventures, the most commercially successful of which was Kevin Saunderson's group Inner City, which saw collaborations with Atkins, May, vocalist Paris Grey, and fellow DJs James Pennington and Arthur Forest.

When Alan Freed first coined the term "rock and roll" (1952)

In 1922 Trixie Smith released a song called "My Daddy Rocks Me (with One Steady Roll)."
The first song called "Rock and Roll" was released by the Boswell Sisters, in 1934.

The C&W influence in rock is mainly just on other white artists, who did not come along until several years after rock and roll started.

"Rock and roll" was a fusion of C&W with R&B - as ably exploited by Wynonie Harris, as by Bill Haley.
According to his autobiography, Chuck Berry rewrote a country song - "Ida Red" - to create his first hit, "Maybellene." Which still sounds much more country than R&B.
The idea of rock and roll - or jazz, or any other organically-grown genre of music - "belonging" to one race, or having its origin in a particular moment or record, is just utterly preposterous.

Man, I wish Robert Johnson had recorded some of the hillbilly and Bing Crosby tunes he used to perform. Maybe that would head off some of this nonsense.

There are FAR more ska records by blacks than by whites.

Is that still true in the last 20 years? Of course ska records from 1964 are going to be from black artists. Ska records from 2004 are most likely not.

Everybody participating in the discussion needs to hear this, right away.

Without the rockabilly artists I'm not sure Rock becomes a social phenomenon that has it's own music Hall of Fame.

Kraftwerk, Brian Eno and Giorgio Moroder certainly predate The Belleville Three. There was plenty of proto-techno around before the mid-1980s. Detroit techno isn't the start of electronic music.

I am not a fan of the "great man" version of art history where one person creates movements from whole cloth. Artists are always influenced by other artists and most movements build upon or are a reaction/rejection of other people's work.

"Rock and roll" was a fusion of C&W with R&B - as ably exploited by Wynonie Harris, as by Bill Haley.
According to his autobiography, Chuck Berry rewrote a country song - "Ida Red" - to create his first hit, "Maybellene." Which still sounds much more country than R&B.

I don't hear any country in Wynonie Harris. No fiddles or steel guitars.

"Maybellene" is from mid-1955, about 7 years after the first rock and roll records were made.

Without the rockabilly artists I'm not sure Rock becomes a social phenomenon that has it's own music Hall of Fame

Depends on your definition of rockabilly. There was only really one top 40 rockabilly hit (Blue Suede Shoes - Carl Perkins). Elvis on RCA, Jerry Lee Lewis, and Buddy Holly's hits were rock and roll, not rockabilly. Real rockabilly is just lead guitar, rhythm guitar and acoustic bass, no drums. That's according to one of the greatest rockabilly artists, Charlie Feathers.

What you're really saying though is that a style of music only really becomes significant when the whites start paying attention to it.

In 1922 Trixie Smith released a song called "My Daddy Rocks Me (with One Steady Roll)."
The first song called "Rock and Roll" was released by the Boswell Sisters, in 1934.

Just because the words "rock and roll" were in the title does not have anything to do with the style of music, or with those words being used as a name for a style of music.

Have you ever heard the Boswell Sisters song?

It's got nothing to do with rock and roll music.


Rock And Roll - Boswell Sisters

No, a style of music becomes significant when EVERYONE pays attention to it. Would Cheap Trick be huge in Japan without Sun Records? Who the hell knows but rockabilly clearly influenced the trajectory of Rock music. Likewise jazz and hip-hop are international music with influences on cultures everywhere.

I don't hear any country in Wynonie Harris. No fiddles or steel guitars.

Harris cut several country songs (my favorite is "Bloodshot Eyes"). Too bad if you don't hear any country in 'em.
Anyway, next time you're in Nashville, make sure to swing by the Country Music Hall of Fame & explain to them how the Carter Family and Jimmie Rodgers weren't country music.

Slide guitar ("blues") and steel guitar ("country") have a common source in popular Hawaiian music of the late 19th century.
Nothing comes from one thing, nothing in popular music is "pure" anything, and thank goodness.

EDIT: "Rock and roll": Alan Freed did not "coin" the term. Nobody did. It existed for decades before that. (and as a euphemism for #######, too.)

No, a style of music becomes significant when EVERYONE pays attention to it.

Which in the USA means "when the whites like it." When rock and roll was only popular with blacks in 1952 the establishment didn't care about it. Once the white kids started liking it in 1954-55 that's when stuff like this started.....


Rock and Roll Music

EDIT: "Rock and roll": Alan Freed did not "coin" the term. Nobody did. It existed for decades before that. (and as a euphemism for #######, too.)

Alan Freed coined the term as a name for a style of music. Of course the term existed earlier, but not as a name of a style of music.

The word "triple" existed before there was baseball.

Harris cut several country songs (my favorite is "Bloodshot Eyes").

Doing a version of a country song does not mean he was influenced by country. The original version of "Bloodshot Eyes" (Hank Penny) was on the same label (King) that Harris was on, so the label just had him cut a version for the black market. Doesn't mean that he ever even heard the country version.

Hank Penny - Bloodshot Eyes

By the way, I'd rank Wynonie Harris as the most glaring omission in the rock and roll hall of fame.