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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Friday, July 26, 2013Most Meritorious Player: 1984 BallotFor 1984, each voter should rank their top 13 players from both leagues combined. Balloting is scheduled to close at 4pm EST on 7 August 2013. Anyone can vote, even if you do not normally participate in Hall of Merit discussions. If have never participated in an MMP election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 6 August 2013. For detailed rules see one of our previous ballots. |
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(8 - 4:22pm, Sep 21) Last: Chris Cobb Reranking Pitchers 1893-1923: Ballot (2 - 9:05pm, Sep 20) Last: kcgard2 Reranking Pitchers 1893-1923: Discussion (38 - 7:19pm, Sep 20) Last: DL from MN Reranking First Basemen: Ballot (18 - 10:13am, Sep 11) Last: DL from MN Reranking First Basemen: Discussion Thread (111 - 5:08pm, Sep 01) Last: Chris Cobb 2024 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion (151 - 6:33pm, Aug 31) Last: kcgard2 Hall of Merit Book Club (15 - 6:04pm, Aug 10) Last: progrockfan Battle of the Uber-Stat Systems (Win Shares vs. WARP)! (381 - 1:13pm, Jul 14) Last: Chris Cobb Reranking Shortstops: Results (6 - 5:15pm, Jun 17) Last: Chris Cobb Reranking Shortstops Ballot (21 - 5:02pm, Jun 07) Last: DL from MN Reranking Shortstops: Discussion Thread (69 - 11:52pm, Jun 06) Last: Guapo Cal Ripken, Jr. (15 - 12:42am, May 18) Last: The Honorable Ardo New Eligibles Year by Year (996 - 12:23pm, May 12) Last: cookiedabookie Reranking Centerfielders: Results (20 - 10:31am, Apr 28) Last: cookiedabookie Reranking Center Fielders Ballot (20 - 9:30am, Apr 06) Last: DL from MN |
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1. DL from MN Posted: July 26, 2013 at 02:13 PM (#4504848)1) Cal Ripken - Not really close. Best season by anyone since 1981.
2) Ryne Sandberg - Best NL player, great defender this year also
3) Gary Carter - C bonus helps him with his highest showing to date
4) Alan Trammell - Great regular season and great in the postseason also. They picked the wrong Tiger.
5) Mike Schmidt - like clockwork
6) Dave Stieb - top AL pitcher for the 3rd year in a row
7) Tim Raines - Only average defensively but tremendous value on the basepaths
8) Eddie Murray - steady Eddie is the best 1B
9) Tony Gwynn - good defender in 84
10) Jose Cruz - Didn't know his number was retired until I looked him up researching this year
11) Dale Murphy
12) Bert Blyleven - second best P
13) Robin Yount - Great time for SS
14-20) Dwight Evans, Wade Boggs, Buddy Bell, Keith Hernandez, Don Mattingly, Dave Winfield, Lloyd Moseby
1 RIPKEN, CAL 9854
2 SANDBERG, RYNE 9081
3 MURRAY, EDDIE 7797
4 CARTER, GARY 7693
5 GWYNN, TONY 7456
6 STIEB, DAVE 7415
7 HERNANDEZ, KEITH 7334
8 RAINES, TIM 7097
9 TRAMMELL, ALAN 6996
10 CRUZ, JOSE 6916
11 SCHMIDT, MIKE 6788
12 MATTINGLY, DON 6588
13 MURPHY, DALE 6574
14 HENDERSON, RICKEY 6570
15 MOSEBY, LLOYD 6545
16 BELL, BUDDY 6454
17 BOGGS, WADE 6428
18 EVANS, DWIGHT 6328
19 BLYLEVEN, BERT 6197
20 ALEXANDER, DOYLE 6111
Ripken comes out alone on top using 3 of the 6 systems I'm using.
Ripken and Sandberg tie atop one system.
Sandberg comes out alone on top using 2 of the 6 systems.
WAR framework based on Value Added Runs with a reduction in replacement runs: WARR (Wins above reduced replacement)
1.Cal Ripken 9.38 WARR
2. Tony Gwynn 7.77 WARR
3. Eddie Murray 7.67 WARR
4. Keith Hernandez 7.23 WARR
5. Dave Stieb 7.05 WARR
6. Ryne Sandberg 7.04 WARR
7. Buddy Bell 6.81 WARR
8. Jose Cruz 6.78 WARR
9. Gary Carter 6.74 WARR
10. Alan Trammell 6.59 WARR
11. Alvin Davis 6.38 WARR
12. Kent Hrbek 6.13 WARR
13. Lloyd Moseby 6.00 WARR
The rest of the top 20
Bert Blyleven
Tony Pena
Doyle Alexander
Mike Schmidt
Ricky Henderson
Tim Raines
Don Mattingly
Top NL pitcher: #21 Rick Rhoden (Gooden had the best pitching numbers, but Rhoden's hitting ability moved him ahead)
Tim Raines OF 24 Montreal 45.72
Gary Carter C 30 Montreal 39.91
Jose Cruz OF 36 Houston 36.02
Keith Hernandez 1B 30 New York 31.74
Mike Schmidt 3B 34 Philadelphia 30.58
Ryne Sandberg 2B 24 Chicago 25.24
Dale Murphy OF 28 Atlanta 22.94
Terry Puhl OF 27 Houston 22.51
Tony Gwynn OF 24 San Diego 22.45
Gary Matthews OF 33 Chicago 21.94
Chili Davis OF 24 San Francisco 21.24
Jeffrey Leonard OF 28 San Francisco 20.20
Lee Lacy OF 36 Pittsburgh 18.56
Darryl Strawberry OF 22 New York 18.21
Dwight Gooden 17-9 19 New York 27.28
Orel Hershiser 11-8 25 Los Angeles 20.51
Alejandro Pena 12-6 25 Los Angeles 19.14
Rick Mahler 13-10 30 Atlanta 18.90
John Denny 7-7 31 Philadelphia 17.27
Fernando Valenzuela 12-17 23 Los Angeles 16.93
Mario Soto 18-7 27 Cincinnati 16.56
Dennis Eckersley 14-12 29 Chic/Bost 14.76
Rick Sutcliffe 20-6 28 Chic/Cleve 14.54
Scott Sanderson 8-5 27 Chicago 14.38
Joaquin Andujar 20-14 31 St. Louis 14.37
Eddie Murray 1B 28 Baltimore 51.03
Don Mattingly 1B 23 New York 36.28
Cal Ripken SS 23 Baltimore 36.05
Dave Winfield OF 32 New York 34.73
Rickey Henderson OF 25 Oakland 34.38
Kirk Gibson OF 27 Detroit 31.00
Alvin Davis 1B 23 Seattle 29.31
Dwight Evans OF 32 Boston 26.86
Dwayne Murphy OF 29 Oakland 25.29
Kent Hrbek 1B 24 Minnesota 24.86
Don Baylor DH 35 New York 23.56
Dave Kingman DH 35 Oakland 23.23
Robin Yount SS 28 Milwaukee 23.03
Alan Trammell SS 26 Detroit 22.34
Bert Blyleven 19-7 33 Cleveland 29.40
Dave Stieb 16-8 26 Toronto 23.77
Tom Seaver 15-11 39 Chicago 23.12
Willie Hernandez 9-3 29 Detroit 23.10
Doyle Alexander 17-6 33 Toronto 21.36
Frank Viola 18-12 24 Minnesota 19.66
Buddy Black 17-12 27 Kansas City 19.56
Richard Dotson 14-15 25 Chicago 18.04
Storm Davis 14-9 22 Baltimore 16.98
Mike Witt 15-11 23 California 16.33
Geoff Zahn 13-10 38 California 15.86
Mike Mason 9-13 25 Texas 14.42
LaMarr Hoyt 13-18 29 Chicago 14.32
Dan Quisenberry 6-3 31 Kansas City 13.84
Oil Can Boyd 12-12 24 Boston 13.22
Bret Saberhagen 10-11 20 Kansas City 13.11
1. Ripken, obvs. -- Weird note: my uncle Bobby was a dead ringer for Cal, Jr, until Bobby got super fat.
2. Gary Carter -- catcher bonus
3. Ryne Sandberg -- When I was a kid, the Cubs were on the tube all the time, and I loved the #### out of Ryne Sandberg.
4. Tim Raines -- Subject of maybe my 2nd-favorite player comment in the NBJHA, after Ernie Lombardi.
5. Dave Stieb -- can never remember how to spell his danged name. Did I get it right?
6. Rik Albert
7. Mr Lloyd Moseby
8. Trammell
9. Schmidt -- If there were a way to vote Trammell & Schmidt in the same spot, I'd do it.
10. E Murray
11. Dale Murphy -- Hometown hero when I was a kid. Shirttail cousin of mine -- we share like a great-great-great grandmother or something, I forgot.
12. Gwynn -- Favorite freakshow talent of the 80s-90s. Got fat, quit fielding, never had much power, but literally never quit hitting singles as long as he was in the game. Seriously: the man batted .324 at the age of 41 some seventeen years after this. He's 53 now and I'd bet he could still bat .300. The only thing that stopped him was his inability to stay on the field. Also, an hilariously high voice for a big man.
13. J Cruz
2. Sandberg--great season, helped lead Cubs to first postseason since '45. I just noticed his BB Ref page now has a horrib pic of Ryno with a bad cop mustache
3. K Hernandez--a great comeback story for player and franchise. The right leader for this young team, made everyone better
4. Gwynn--best player on a surprising SD team
5. G Carter--how do you trade this man after this season?!?!
6. Murray--along with Cal, didn't slump after winning it all unlike most of the rest of the team
7. Schmidt--amazing how he put up MVP-caliber numbers almost every year, DL said it best--like clockwork
8. Trammell--most important player on ensemble '84 Tigers
9. Dw Evans--an underrated year by an underrated player--if he doesn't get on the upcoming Exp Era VC ballot I will absolutely go primate poop
10. Raines--in the middle of excellent string of great years
11. Steib--not a great year for pitchers but looks like he was the best
12. Dale Murphy--maybe not the most dominant player in the game but still excellent
13. Blyleven--quietly excellent with the Tribe
1)Ripken
2)Sandberg
3)Gary Carter
4)T Gwynn
5)Trammell
6)E. Murray
7)Keith Hernandez
8)Lloyd Moseby
9)Dave Stieb
10)Blyleven
11)Mike Schmidt
12)Rickey
13)Mattingly
1. Cal Ripken
2. Ryne Sandberg
3. Eddie Murray
4. Rickey Henderson
5. Gary Carter
6. Tony Gwynn
7. Dave Stieb
8. Alan Trammell
9. Keith Hernandez
10. Don Mattingly
11. Wade Boggs
12. Jose Cruz
13. Buddy Bell
1. Cal Ripken
2. Ryne Sandberg
3. Alan Trammell
4. Kirk Gibson
5. Eddie Murray
6. Gary Carter
7. Mike Schmidt
8. Dwight Evans
9. Willie Hernandez
10. Tony Gwynn
11. Dale Murphy
12. Rickey Henderson
13. Lou Whitaker
Rob Wood, SavoyBG, bjhanke, Yardape, John Murphy
Add those voters and we would see 15 ballots.
I’m sure that it will come as a shock to all that my method was to correlate the players’ Win Share / WAR ordinals in the lists DL is kind enough to provide, and then tweak from there. And I’m sure no one has guessed, from my earlier ballot comments, that WAR tends to rate pitchers higher than Win Shares does. Or, this being comic book convention season, that this ballot will be short of comments. One thing I did want to seriously mention is that, a year or two ago, DL mentioned that he doesn’t have every player in his lists, and so using them as a starting point might cause me to miss someone. I checked over the last few years, though, and I could not find anybody who would have made my ballot that DL did not list. Good job, DL! And VERY VERY helpful, at least to me. Keep it up. With no further ado, here is my 1984 ballot.
1. Cal Ripken
2. Ryne Sandberg
3. Gary Carter
4. Eddie Murray
5. Tony Gwynn
6. Tim Raines
7. Keith Hernandez
8. Alan Trammell
9. Lloyd Moseby
10. Jose Cruz
11. Dave Stieb
12. Dale Murphy
13. Bert Blyleven
NOTES:
Actually, Ripken and Sandberg tied in the ordinals, but WAR has Ripken ahead of Sandberg by a much larger margin than Win Shares has Ryne ahead of Cal.
Gary Carter was actually fourth in the ordinals, behind Eddie Murray, but the gap is small, and so any catcher bonus I gave would make up the difference. So, Gary ahead of Eddie.
Tim Raines and Keith Hernandez were tied in the ordinals, and Keith’s advantage in Win Shares was greater than Tim’s in WAR, but I gave Tim a bonus for being able to play more positions than just first base.
Alan Trammell and Lloyd Moseby were the same thing as the above. Alan and Lloyd tied in the ordinals, but Trammell was a shortstop.
I was a huge Jose Cruz fan when he first came up with the Cardinals, and had visions of his being the starting CF for a decade. I was just furious when they traded him to the Astros. And, although this is the first time he’s made my MMP ballot, I still think I was right.
Dave Stieb was actually my 11th-ranked player according to the ordinals. However, Murphy and Blyleven were not 12th and 13th. They were what I call “must-dos.” This means that they rank so high in one system that I’m not willing to leave them out, in spite of their low rankings in the other ordinal. Murphy ranks 6th in Win Shares, 25th in WAR. Bert ranks 6th in WAR, but 35th in Win Shares.
The one guy who certainly missed my ballot due to the must-dos was Don Mattingly. He’d be my #14. Wade Boggs and Mike Schmidt were tied in the ordinals for what would have been 13th place, but both were run off by Dale and Bert, so I spent no effort trying to figure out which one I would have ranked higher. Dwight Evans was close to a must-do. He ranks 9th in Win Shares, but 26th in WAR.
1. Ryne Sandberg: Okay, 1.4 WAR gap between the two in favor of Cal. How much of that is based on solid evidence, and how much on fuzzier metrics? Defense of course makes up almost all of the difference (23 runs vs. 13): for the 5 years surrounding 1984 (inclusive), BBRef has Cal's D as worth
6
11
23
0 (!)
16
Avg. 11.2
Ryno:
6
13
12
-4
3
Avg. 6.0
Other systems might also close the gap.
For some strange reason BBRef gives Cal a 4 run edge on baserunning (4-0), despite the stolen bases being 32-7 to 2-1, Ryno. That simply doesn't pass the smell test, given how much faster Ryno was.
Once you adjust for that stuff, the gap becomes less than half a run, which is too close to call. At that point I'll note Ryno has a 4.6 to 3.5 gap in WPA, and that his performance may have made enough of a difference to ensure his team won the division (vs. the Orioles finishing a distant 5th). I don't put a huge premium on a team's finishing position in such things, but if it otherwise this close I will.
2. Cal Ripken.
3. Dave Stieb. Clearly the best pitcher that year.
4. Gary Carter. A catcher with his D leads the league in RBI's, and finishes 14th in the MVP balloting??
5. Eddie Murray. So how many Cy's and MVP's did these 3 guys win in some alternate universe?
6. Mike Schmidt. Just another excellent season for him...in comparison with some other great retired players, he doesn't seem to get much press anymore...
7. Bert Blyleven. Add him to the Alternate Universe Award list...
8. Alan Trammell. Ditto (this is becoming a trend...).
9. Tim Raines. x5.
10. Wade Boggs. 2nd favorite player of the 80's after Ryno.
11. Tony Gwynn
12. Rick Rhoden
13. Don Mattingly
14. Chet Lemon. Detroit CF was huge back then...
15. Keith Hernandez.
First of all, the edge is 2-0, not 4-0. Second, that might have something to do with Ryno making 14 outs on the bases (not including the caught stealing) and Cal making only 2 outs that way. You might want to take a longer look at the numbers before dismissing them out of hand. Being base-running savvy is often more important than being speedy.
Finally, you can rip the writers association all you like for ignoring Stieb/Carter et al but they came up with some of their screwy results by following biases instead of numbers. Kind of like you just did.
ps. You made allowances for defense and baserunning but you never quite explained how a 140 OPS+ from a second baseman is more valuable than a 146 OPS+ from a shortstop.
How much of that difference is that one game -- the Ryne Sandberg game?
I apologize to everyone, but I have to revise my ballot. I discovered that I had double counted the park factors with my position players.
1. Cal Ripken 9.22 WARR
2. Ryne Sandberg 7.57 WARR
3. Tony Gwynn 7.55 WARR
4. Eddie Murray 7.51 WARR
5. Keith Hernandez 7.09 WARR
6. Dave Stieb 7.05 WARR
7. Buddy Bell 6.74 WARR
8. Alvin Davis 6.38 WARR
9. Gary Carter 6.74 WARR
10. Kent Hrbek 6.49 WARR
11. Jose Cruz 6.47 WARR
12. Alan Trammell 6.45 WARR
13. Lloyd Moseby 6.25 WARR
The rest of the top 20
Bert Blyleven
Tony Pena
Doyle Alexander
Mike Schmidt
Dwight Evans
Tim Raines
Ricky Henderson
Don Mattingly
Top NL pitcher: #21 Rick Rhoden (Gooden had the best pitching numbers, but Rhoden's hitting ability moved him ahead)
Here's how Dan R has Ripken v Sandberg
Player BWAA2 BRWAA2 FWAA2 Rep2 WARP2 WAPA2
Ripken 3.9 0.2 1.9 -4.4 10.4 7.1
Sandberg 3.8 0.6 1.9 -1.9 8.1 6.5
The batting wins are even. Sandberg is ahead on baserunning by 4 runs. Fielding versus position is even. The difference is playing SS (Rep2) and it makes sense. All else equal playing SS is worth more than playing 2B.
1) Ryne Sandberg: Best ML player and second baseman.
2) Cal Ripken: Best ML shortstop - really close to being the best player himself.
3) Tim Raines: Best ML center fielder.
4) Tony Gwynn: Best ML right fielder.
5) Gary Carter: Best ML catcher.
6) Dale Murphy: Best ML surname.
7) Eddie Murray: Best ML first baseman.
8) Jose Cruz: Best ML left fielder.
9) Don Mattingly: Best NY first baseman.
10) Alan Trammell: Best ML shortstop named Alan Trammell.
11) Buddy Bell: Best ML third Baseman.
12) Keith Hernandez: Best NL first baseman.
13) Dave Steib: Best ML pitcher.
1. Ryne Sandberg
2. Cal Ripken, Jr. - WAR has Cal ahead, but WS likes Sandberg, and I tend to like the WS system. Sandberg also gets a slight postseason bump.
3. Tony Gwynn - With playoff credit, Gwynn actually gets into the orbit of the middle infielders.
4. Dale Murphy
5. Tim Raines - One of my favourites growing up, but Murphy edges him for best ML CFer.
6. Dwight Evans - A lot of good outfielders this season.
7. Lloyd Moseby - Another favourite of mine in his first great year.
8. Kirk Gibson - Gets a big boost from the playoffs.
9. Alan Trammell
10. Gary Carter - Best ML catcher.
11. Chet Lemon - A lot of Tigers on my list, which makes a lot of sense.
12. Dwight Gooden - A taste of things to come.
13. Jose Cruz
Lou Whitaker just misses, and must be feeling left out with all of his teammates on my ballot. Hernandez, Henderson, Boggs and Carmelo Martinez (!) are also just off. Dave Stieb is my AL Pitcher of the year. Guillermo Hernandez was the best relief pitcher.
Rob Wood, SavoyBG
I think this would be the first ballot Rob Wood missed.
2 - Gary Carter gets a big boost from park and from his position, to carry him ahead of some players with better unadjusted wOBAs.
3 - Rickey Henderson doesn't look so good in the systems displayed at the top of the page here as he does in mine. I have him close to Carter in value, and again he gains from playing in a pitcher's park.
4 - Alan Trammell is overshadowed by Ripken. Not as much power, didn't walk as much, worse fielder. Nonetheless, he is a remarkably good hitter for a shortstop.
5 - Tim Raines.
6 - Dave Stieb finished exactly equal to Raines, but I put Raines ahead because his raw value was hurt a little bit more by his ballpark than Stieb's, despite my usual preference to break ties in favour of pitchers. Was it harder to hit in the NL or harder to pitch in the AL? This could be another tiebreaker.
7 - Bert Blylevyn has a case to be ranked ahead of Stieb, but I would definitely put him behind Raines, which is another reason to put Raines ahead of Stieb. Blylevyn had better control than Stieb, and although he gave up the same number of homers, he surrendered notably fewer doubles and fewer hits overall.
8 - Ryne Sandberg, in my memory, seemed likely to be at the top of my ballot. But I discounted him heavily on account of his playing in a hitter's haven. Also, NL 2Bs hit really well, almost as good as NL 3Bs. (But shortstops hit embarrassingly badly in the NL.)
9 - Jose Cruz is THE BIGGEST SURPRISE ON MY BALLOT. I have no real memory of him for this season. His raw value is hidden by the Astrodome, but also by the fact that NL LFs were the worst hitters of the three OF positions. (Had Raines played in any other than CF, he again would have done a bit better.)
10 - Mike Schmidt.
11 - Tony Gwynn.
12 - Eddie Murray is the lowest ranked of a trio very close in total value. So I ranked them by their positional adjustments.
13 - Robin Yount gets the nod ahead of Don Mattingly in part because his completely unadjusted wOBA is a little bit higher compared with the positional average wOBA than Mattingly's.
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