1988 Ballot

1) Orel Hershiser - fantastic postseason moves him to the top of the list
2) Wade Boggs - 3rd straight runner-up finish on my ballot and beat by a pitcher every time
3) Kirk Gibson - Postseason doesn't really factor into it. Good season with the glove helps. Scores highest above positional average
4) Jose Canseco - Best hitter in AL
5) Barry Larkin
6) Ozzie Smith
7) Frank Viola - Top AL pitcher
8) Cal Ripken
9) Mike Greenwell - poor baserunner, small postseason bump
10) Roger Clemens - small postseason bump
11) Mark Gubicza
12) Will Clark - 2nd best hitter in the NL to Strawberry; Strawberry was poor defensively
13) Ted Higuera

14-21) Alan Trammell, Kirby Puckett, Brett Butler, Kal Daniels, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Andy Van Slyke, Darryl Strawberry

1988 Ballot

1. Wade Boggs, 3B, Boston Red Sox (first on my ballot for the third year in a row): 2nd in OPS+, 1st in Runs Created, +2 fielding at third base
2. Mike Greenwell, LF, Boston Red Sox: 3rd in both OPS+ and Runs Created, +13 fielding runs in front of the Green Monster
3. Jose Canseco, RF, Oakland Athletics: 1st in OPS+, 2nd in Runs Created, -2 fielding runs; pretty close to Greenwell in total value- Jose had the better bat, Greenie the better glove- so I can see why Canseco beat Greenwell for the MVP if one ignores Boggs' consistent excellence
4. Orel Hershiser, P, Los Angeles Dodgers: best player in the National League; a 149 ERA+ in a league leading 267 innings; there was also something about a scoreless streak though that doesn't factor into the placement
5. Kirby Puckett, CF, Minnesota Twins: very good fielding (+6 runs) at a premium defensive position (center field); not a bad bat either (153 OPS+)
6. Will Clark, 1B, San Francisco Giants
7. Marc Gubicza, P, Kansas City Royals: surprised myself with my pick for the top AL pitcher; 149 ERA+ in a league leading 269 innings
8. Frank Viola, P, Minnesota Twins: 154 ERA+ in 255 innings
9. Fred McGriff, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: not a whole lot of difference between Clark at #6 and McGriff at #9
10. Darryl Strawberry, RF, New York Mets: led the NL in OPS+ but dragged down by -6 fielding runs
11. Teddy Higuera, P, Milwaukee Brewers: I always thought Higuera was a one-year wonder but here he is on the ballot again thanks to a 162 ERA+ in 227 innings
12. Bobby Bonilla, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: 143 OPS+ and 106 runs created as a third baseman
13. Andy Van Slyke, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates: 144 OPS+ and +6 fielding runs

14. Paul Molitor, 3B/DH, Milwaukee Brewers: Molitor would have been 11th if he earned a full third base bonus but playing a third of his games at DH dropped him just off ballot
15. Roger Clemens, P, Boston Red Sox
16. Andres Galarraga, 1B, Montreal Expos: the Big Cat had a 150 OPS+ and +2 fielding runs
17. Barry Larkin, SS, Cincinnati Reds
18. Danny Jackson, P, Cincinnati Reds
19. Kirk Gibson, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
20. David Cone, P, New York Mets

1988 ballot. Some minor tweaks from the prelim. Hershiser gets a boost from his postseason-
although his regular season was 267 IP at a 149 ERA+, his combined regular and postseason was
309+ IP at a 160ish ERA+. As I don't believe it's fair to give playing time credit to players
whose teams make the playoffs when other players don't have the opportunity, I credit Hershiser
with 267 IP. At the same time, I rate him as if he had a 160ish ERA+ for those innings.

No other player earns enough of a postseason boost to affect his ranking.

1. Jose Canseco
2. Orel Hershiser
3. Will Clark
4. Frank Viola
5. Mark Gubicza
6. Wade Boggs
7. Teddy Higuera
8. Kirk Gibson
9. Kirby Puckett
10. Roger Clemens
11. Barry Larkin
12. Robin Yount
13. Mike Greenwell

1-Jose Canseco -.307/.391/.569, 347 TB, and 42 Homeruns in the Mausoleum (96 One Year Park factor). MLB leading 170 OPS+, 40 steals. The only player to finish in the top ten in all of my systems
2- Orel Hershiser -Post season credit vaults him to number two. 2.26 ERA, 15 complete games, 8 Shutouts, 267 IP (And 42.2 more in the postseason), 149 ERA+, Post season monster. The best pitcher in MLB
3-Mike Greenwell -Plus Leftfielder with 13 rField, .325 BA,39 doubles,22 homers (Medium power in the 80’s), 87 walks (To only 38 K’s), 160 OPS+, league leading 18 IBB (Teh Fear)2nd in OBP, fifth in slugging. Just a terrific all around year and one he would never come close to repeating
4-Wade Boggs-It’s a toss-up between Boggs and Greenwell and I could be convinced to go either way. Boggs is a positive fielder (2 rField),but not to the point that Greenwell is. 168 OPS+, Career high OBP of .476 (.060 higher than the next player-Greenwell), .366, 125 walks, 45 doubles and 19 less homers than the year before. 23 DP’s
5-Will Clark-29 homers,.282/.386/.506,160 OPS+, 100 BB, plus base runner, average fielder, helped by Candlesticks 94 park factor. The best season in a fine career.
6-Kirby Puckett-Monster year,153 OPS+, .357/.375/.545 with 24 homers and 237 hits. Plus baserunner. Plus centerfielder. MLB leading 358 TB. Only 23 walks in 691 PA. The Homerdome’s one year Park factor of 106 hurts him.
7-Darryl Strawberry-The most valuable position player in the NL. 165 OPS+, 39 homers, .269/.366/.545, led the NL in homers, raw SLG and OPS despite Shea’s One year PF of 90,neutral baserunner, poor fielder.
8-Frank Viola-255 IP, 2.64 raw era in the afore mentioned Homerdome, 154 ER+.
9-Andy Van Slyke-.288/.345/.506,144 OPS+, 15 triples and 25 HR, 30 steals, plus baserunner, plus centerfielder-in 1988 AVS did everything well but nothing spectacularly. Add it all up it and it makes for a heck of year.
10-Kirk Gibson-Nuff said.
11-Barry Bonds-Pretty much the same stats as AVS.A little less power, a little more OBP. 148 OPS+. The difference between Bonds and AVS comes down to position. The first of many years to come on my MMP ballots
12-Mark Gubicza -269 innings pitched, 2.70 raw era, 149 ERA+. Another in a seemingly endless line of great young Royals pitchers
13-Rickey!-.305/.394/.399,93 SB,124 ERA+, above average left fielder,+17 rBASER


14-Alan Trammel
15-Roger Clemens
16-Kevin McReynolds
17-Eric Davis
18-Dave Henderson
19-Galaragga
20-Barry Larkin

Edited to add that Straws comment should say 2nd most valuable position player in the NL.
That and of course Rickey Henderson had a 124 OPS+,not ERA+

Here's my ballot, based on my usual combination of WAR(P)s and WS systems.
10% catcher bonus; postseason not considered.

1 Canseco, Jose 9517
2 Boggs, Wade 8931
3 Gibson, Kirk 8184
4 Viola, Frank 7837
5 Clark, Will 7837
6 Clemens, Roger 7757
7 Gubicza, Mark 7632
8 Puckett, Kirby 7533
9 Greenwell, Mike 7465
10 Van Slyke, Andy 7355
11 Larkin, Barry 7267
12 Higuera, Teddy 7134
13 Butler, Brett 7035

14 Strawberry, Darryl 7014
15 Henderson, Rickey 6943
16 Hershiser, Orel 6782
17 McGriff, Fred 6737
18 Henderson, Dave 6723
19 Bonds, Barry 6673
20 Yount, Robin 6535

I wanted to comment on Hershiser's low placement:
He is hurt by my not including the postseason and also by his Fangraphs WAR number.
It pains me to leave him off the ballot since I'm a Dodgers fan and fondly remember that season... but such is life.

Here's my ballot (please see complete list in the 1988 discussion):

Jose Canseco 54.05 runs
Darryl Strawberry 49.59 runs
Will Clark 45.81 runs
Kevin McReynolds 39.98 runs
Dave Winfield 38.80 runs
Roger Clemens 38.42 runs
Wade Boggs 37.75 runs
Fred McGriff 36.01 runs
Brett Butler 35.62 runs
Andy Van Slyke 33.89 runs
Bobby Bonilla 33.34 runs
Barry Bonds 32.53 runs
Mike Greenwell 32.41 runs

No postseason bonus but a small bonus for playing on a Division contending team
1. Hershiser--excellent at the beginning & end of the season
2. Canseco*--the biggest monster* on the big, bad A's. 40*/40* was pretty impressive, lots of asteriks though
3. Gibson--whipped the underachieving Dodgers into shape
4. Greenwell
5. Boggs--the anti-Gibson, bringing acrimony to the team with the Margo Adams scandal. The drama helped lead to MacNamara's firing but the Sox got hot under new mgr Joe Morgan and took the AL East
6. Puckett
7. Viola
8. Brett
9. Gubicza
10. W Clark
11. Strawberry
12. McGriff--first great year of a guy who I feel is an overlooked HOF. Probably the least saber-friendly HOF candidate I support
13. Clemens

1988 Final Ballot

Batters: start with RA (using value added runs), adjust for park, position and defense (average of TZ and DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

Pitchers: start with RA (using value added runs) adjust for quality of opposition, park, team defense and role (reliever or starter) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

1. Wade Boggs 7.27 WARR
2. Jose Canseco 7.13 WARR
3. Mike Greenwell 7.10 WARR
4. Andy Van Slyke 6.90 WARR
5. Mark Gubicza 6.81 WARR
6. Roger Clemens 6.61 WARR
7. Frank Viola 6.58 WARR
8. Darryl Strawberry 6.45 WARR
9. Kirby Pickett 6.34 WARR
10. Teddy Higuera 6.22 WARR
11 Barry Larkin 6.22 WARR
12. Fred McGriff 6.12 WARR
13. Kirk Gibson 6.0 WARR

Rest of the top 20
14. Bobby Bonilla
15. Kal Daniels
16. Orel Hershiser
17. Will Clark
18. David Henderson
19. Ricky Henderson
20. Brett Butler

Tubbs - is #8 George Brett?

Yes #8 George Brett

Only 8 ballots so far. I'd like to have 12 minimum.

Damn. I thought the MMP was being shelved this month. See what I can do about getting one in on time.

I will extend if you give me a new ballot close date/time.

1988 Official MMP Ballot (no postseason bonuses):

1) Will Clark: Best ML player and NL first baseman.
2) Jose Canseco: Best AL player and right fielder (close to Clark in value).
3) Wade Boggs: Best ML third baseman.
4) Kirby Puckett: Best ML center fielder.
5) Kevin McReynolds: Best ML left fielder.
6) Robin Yount:
7) Mike Greenwell: Best AL left fielder.
8) Kirk Gibson:
9) Darryl Strawberry: Best NL right fielder.
10) Rickey Henderson:
11) Barry Larkin: Best ML shortstop.
12) Brett Butler: Best NL center fielder.
13) Frank Viola: Best ML pitcher.

Like John, I somehow missed this MMP balloting. Due to that, I have not been able to put together my regular ballot. However, I've put together a decent approximation of that below, using Win Shares from the Baseball Gauge as my primary metric.

1. Jose Canseco: 40/40 and all that. He was a force this year, despite his extra-legal help.
2. Kirk Gibson: Best NL player. Not much of a postseason bump, home run be damned.
3. Orel Hershiser: Best ML pitcher. It was actually close with Viola, but Hershiser gets a big postseason bump.
4. Wade Boggs: Best 3B.
5. Will Clark: Best 1B.
6. Darryl Strawberry
7. Kirby Puckett: Best CF
8. Robin Yount
9. Andy van Slyke: Retroactively, the Pirates choice of him over Bonds has made me forget how good van Slyke once was.
10. Mike Greenwell
11. Frank Viola: Best AL pitcher
12. Dave Winfield
13. Mark Gubizca: I boost pitchers a little compared to base WS, and that pushes Gubizca onto my ballot.

Just off: Brett Butler, Bobby Bonilla, Kevin McReynolds, Rickey!, Paul Molitor

1. Jose Canseco
2. Orel Hershiser
3. Darryl Strawberry
4. Mike Greenwell
5. Roger Clemens
6. Andy Van Slyke
7. Wade Boggs
8. Kirby Puckett
9. Will Clark
10. Alan Trammell
11. Frank Viola
12. Dave Henderson
13. Ozzie Smith

Compared to my prelim, I put Frank Viola on and pushed Kevin McReynolds just off somewhat in deference to other systems, and because I thought my ballot was a little light on pitchers and heavy on corner outfielders otherwise.

No ballots yet from Moeball, bjhanke or OCF. Moeball posted a prelim.

Will keep balloting open for Moeball to post his ballot. If anyone knows him a friendly e-mail would be helpful.

bjhanke & OCF - if you would like to post a ballot go ahead. I'm hoping Moeball notices the thread remaining open.

DL - Somehow, I remembered doing a 1988 ballot, but I have no records of it, and neither do you. I can and will get one done tonight (Thursday night and I have nothing else on the agenda) if you will keep the ballot open for that long. Sorry. - Brock

DL - I had done most of the work for 1988, and so I can list right now my list of 13. I’m not including comments, because I’m getting sleepy (I sleep during the day). The main comment I should mention is that I gave Orel Hershiser some postseason credit, and Kirk Gibson a little bit. This moved Orel up on the ballot, but Kirk was separated from everyone else by a larger margin than the extra credit I was willing to give. Thanks, - Brock Hanke

1. Wade Boggs
2. Jose Canseco
3. Kirby Puckett
4. Will Clark
5. Mike Greenwell
6. Kirk Gibson
7. Andy Van Slyke
8. Brett Butler
9. Barry Larkin
10. Rickey Henderson
11. Orel Hershiser
12. Mark Gubiza
13. Darryl Strawberry

I worked up the pitchers, but I never did establish any sense of what I thought about Gibson vs. Canseco vs. Boggs, and so on, and I'm slammed for the next week. I'll have to pass on this one.

Have some time on my hands with the fantasy baseball offseason so thought I'd submit a ballot. I'm a big proponent on bRef WAR with some slight adjustments due to known shortcomings (catcher defense). Open to re-ordering players within about 0.5 WAR - especially if driven by defensive value.

1. Wade Boggs - Tops in bWar. His OBP lead is so massive. .476 when only two other players topped .400 (.416 Greenwell, .412 A. Davis). This value gap is compounded by leading the league in Plate Appearances. He was on base 24% more than ever player except Greenwell. Insane. Add in decent fielding at 3B.

2. Jose Canseco - Led majors in HR/SLG. Top 10 in OBP. 7th in bWar but willing to look past shaky defense (and not impressed by the 40 SBs given the 16 CS and near league average Rbaser).

3. Orel Hershiser - Minor value differences between Gubicza and Viola (with Clemens/Higuera a notch below). Boost for his amazing September (55 IP, 0 ER) and playoffs.

4. Mike Greenwell - 2nd in OBP, 7th in SLG, with a ton of PAs. i don't believe any defensive metrics for Fenway LFers. Total career season - more WAR this year than his 2nd/3rd best seasons combined.

5. Kirby Puckett - If this was 1988, would've voted Puckett ahead of Greenwell given Puckett's higher AVG. 23 BBs in 691 PAs is ridiculously low.

6. Darryl Strawberry
7. Frank Viola
8. Kirk Gibson
9. Will Clark
10. Brett Butler
11. Andy Van Slyke
12. Mark Gubicza
13. Roger Clemens

14-20 - Higuera, Bonds, Ozzie, Galarraga, Rickey, Winfield, Dave Henderson

I'll accept the ballot. I'm going to close voting on Monday if I don't hear back from Moeball.

Interesting year, as the ballots are all over the place. I don't follow these too closely, but I assume it's not too common to have four different guys get the top spot (Hershiser, Boggs, Canseco, Clark) and then have those same players show up as low as number nine or eleven on other ballots.

Deputy - I can explain how Hershiser showed up at #11 on my ballot. I start out with DL's lists of players at the top of the discussion threads. I get them sorted by Win Shares and by WAR. Then I take the ordinals from the two lists and add them together. Then, starting with the lowest sum first, I rank them. After that, I adjust for things like being a catcher, postseason performance, that stuff. For example, on the BB-Ref WAR list for 1988, Orel ranks 8th, and WAR doesn't count postseason, so I can see why WAR-driven analysts will rank Orel so high. However, he only ranks 23rd by Win Shares, which is actually tied with Frank Viola as the best pitcher in baseball, according to Win Shares. Well, 8 + 23 = 31, and that's just not a low enough number to make my top 13. So I added some to Orel's ranking, for the postseason, which got him onto the ballot at #11. I didn't add anything like that to Frank Viola, and he is not on my list at all. I do have Mark Gubicza on my ballot, but not Frank Viola. To be honest, those two are essentially tied by my ordinal method, but Gubicza ranks second in WAR, so I gave the slot to him because WAR thinks he was THAT good.

In general, it has been true for some years, and is getting worse, that pitchers just rank much lower in Win Shares than they do in WAR. I'm not sure exactly how that happens, but I can think of one way. Bill James' Win Share system starts by assigning a number of Win Shares to team pitching - adding up the WS for all the pitchers on a team must produce that WS number that Bill assigned to the whole team. No more, no less. WS are assigned to individual pitchers based on Claim Points for the individual guy. However, at the claim points level, Bill multiplies reliever IP by 1.7. That is, in essence, Bill trying to account for the higher leverages that relief pitchers pitch. But what it means is that starting pitchers take a hit. Remember, Bill's system must match his WS pool for whole team. If you give extra claim points to one guy, then those points have to come from some other guy. In this case, Bill's adding 70% to reliever WS, so starting pitchers' claim points aren't worth as much, so they rank lower.

I do not know if any WAR system, including BB-Ref WAR, forces pitcher WAR to conform to any number representing the total team WAR. That is, as far as I know, WAR does not use a top-down, team-first structure, so they have no anchor point where they have to say, "We're giving too much credit to modern starting pitchers." This was certainly true when Bill James had the best WAR system around, but there are a lot of WAR systems out there now, and they agree with each other on big things like this. None of them shows any signs of making sure that the sum of a team's pitcher WAR must add up to any certain number representing the number of WAR accumulated by the whole team.

If I have what WAR does right, then I am on Bill's side on this. That's why I average one Win Share system with only one WAR system. If I were to factor in, say, 5 more WAR systems, which is possible, and is also where I started at the very beginning of the MMP project, then I'd be shifting my ballots more to the WAR side of things, because the WAR systems would, essentially, get 6 votes to Win Shares' one vote. But I think Bill's top-down approach is much more likely to reflect the actual impact on a given pitcher. If anything, I'd give more "votes" to different Win Share systems than to WAR ones. I've been doing this system since way back near the beginning of the MMP project, because it gives me results that are more along the line of what I had expected, plus a good way to know if there's any systemic difference between WS and WAR. This pitcher ranking disparity is one of those systemic differences. I point this out because there are people on this project who are also on teams that do WAR systems. They will know if the individual pitcher WAR add up to the team WAR or any other hard limit. If not, I think one of them should try it and see how it works in a WAR framework. Because I think Bill is, essentially, right on this one, although I don't know if 70% is right, or if that reliever bonus should be lower. - Brock Hanke

I don't know why relievers should get any sort of advantage in dividing up credit. Can someone tell me why a reliever pitching the 7th inning should be more valuable than a starting pitcher pitching the 7th inning? Is there a Win Shares calculator that doesn't make the 70% assumption?

I also think it is a bad idea to give the same "pool" of Win Shares every year. Pitching + defense should have the same run prevention pool but the amount of credit given to either one should be variable. It seems to me like Win Shares is stealing credit from the defense and starting pitchers and giving it to relief pitchers. This means Win Shares underrates defenders with high usage (C, SS, CF) and starting pitchers. That seems consistent with the areas where it doesn't agree with WAR.

Pitching + defense should have the same run prevention pool but the amount of credit given to either one should be variable.

Win Shares does vary the amount. For a team in a given season, pitchers receive between 60% and 75% of the 'defensive win shares'.

Can someone tell me why a reliever pitching the 7th inning should be more valuable than a starting pitcher pitching the 7th inning? Is there a Win Shares calculator that doesn't make the 70% assumption?

What Win Shares does is give extra credit to relievers with saves and holds, valuing a save as an additional three innings, and a hold as an additional one inning, when calculating the claim points for relievers' saves and holds. The total number of additional claim points accrued through saves is capped. So the relievers' bonus comes when they get a save or a hold. If no hold is awarded, there is no difference between a reliever's 7th inning and that of a starter.

#27 - Baseball Ref's WAR is forced so that it matches a team Runs Scored and Runs Allowed (times some Runs per Win multiplier. http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/tango-on-war/. So it aligns with a team's Pythagorean Wins vs. actual Wins which I think is better since the differences between the two are more driven by luck vs. player skill.

From what I've read/understood, Win Shares was great in concept but has flaws in execution that require fudge factors like 1.7*reliever IP. Tom Tango did a lengthy PDF comparing it to WAR (http://www.docstoc.com/docs/133244411/Win-Shares-discussion-with-Rob-Wood---Tango-on-Baseballpdf). WAR is both easier to calculate and better at addressing fielding impact.

If no hold is awarded, there is no difference between a reliever's 7th inning and that of a starter.

If a magic "H" is achieved then the reliever gets double credit plus triple credit if they get a magic "S"? Is this Scrabble or baseball? That strikes me as propagating a bias rather than letting the data drive the analysis.

Since WAR apparently is forced to line up with runs scored and runs allowed I guess you answered my question - WAR is Win Shares without the flawed assumptions and fudge factors.

Balloting will close at 4:00 eastern today.

DL:

You can't get a "hold" if you get a "save".

Ballot is closed.