MVP voting was pretty accurate - Henderson and Bonds. CYA voting went to Bob Welch and Doug Drabek because Wins.

Nolan Ryan had a bunch of Ks and a no-hitter but doesn't show up on the list.

1990 Prelim

1) Rickey! - Best offensive contribution, then add plus baserunning and defense
2) Roger Clemens - best pitching performance since Clemens 1987
3) Barry Bonds - Baserunning separates Rickey from Barry
4) Len Dykstra
5) Cal Ripken
6) Alan Trammell
7) Barry Larkin - three SS in a row
8) Frank Viola - best NL pitcher, very close to Finley but only because Viola had to hit
9) Chuck Finley
10) Ryne Sandberg
11) Ed Whitson
12) Darryl Strawberry
13) Cecil Fielder

14-20) Jose Canseco, Brett Butler, Matt Williams, Erik Hanson, Julio Franco, Bip Roberts, Mark McGwire
21-25) Dave Stewart, Fred McGriff, Darren Daulton, Carlton Fisk, Andy Van Slyke

1. Rickey Henderson - 189 OPS+, .439 OBP and 65 SB led league; one of best offensive seasons of the '90s; good glove and baserunning
2. Roger Clemens - 211 ERA+ (next best was 169 by a guy who barely qualified)
3. Barry Bonds - 170 OPS+, still superior in the outfield
4. Lenny Dykstra *
5. Ryne Sandberg
6. Cal Ripken
7. Cecil Fielder
8. Alan Trammell - well above average both offensively and defensively
9. Darryl Strawberry - good season with the bat and improved defense
10. Julio Franco - solid across board (top 30 in offense, defense, and BsR)
11. Eddie Murray
12. Barry Larkin - good glove and baserunning make up for lack of power or OBP


Mark McGwire - decent glove and .370 OBP make up for .235 BA

Fred McGriff - .300/.400/.530 triple slash makes up for poor glove


Having trouble deciding on last slot. McGwire and McGriff are in the mix. Also Bip Roberts.

Also, does anyone know anything more about Dykstra's ZR that year? It seems out of whack.

This data suggests Fisk was adding 1.4 wins per season with his game calling. Add 1.4 wins to his totals above and he looks worthy of a ballot slot.

Ooog. I just checked the header numbers against each other. This year is just as bad as 1989. There is approximately no consensus between Win Shares and WAR. In general, no surprise, WAR overrates the pitchers. Actually, it's not QUITE as bad as 1989. There is a general consensus on the first four spots: Rickey!, Barry, Ryne, and Lenny the Dyke. Clemons isn't horrible. But Ed Whitson ranks 8th in WAR and 45th in Win Shares, while Eddie Murray ranks 5th in Win Shares and 32nd in WAR. I am MUCH more likely to trust Eddie Murray than Ed Whitson. - Brock Hanke.

WAR overrates the pitchers

Win Shares overrates the relievers. Bobby Thigpen is not equal to Frank Viola.

1990 Prelim- AL Only

1. Rickey Henderson, LF, Oakland A's: one of the great seasons of all-time, 1st in OPS+ and RC while adding massive advantages on the bases (+6) and with the glove (+16)
2. Roger Clemens, P, Boston Red Sox: 211 ERA+ laps the field
3. Cecil Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers: the Detroit faithful thought that Fielder was robbed of the MVP after hitting 50 home runs for the first time in a generation but the writers got this one right
4. Dennis Eckersley, RP, Oakland A's: a 0.61 ERA (and 603 ERA+) is absolutely ridiculous, WPA puts him second among AL pitchers behind Clemens
5. Dave Stewart, P, Oakland A's
6. Chuck Finley, P, California Angels: Stewart's 31 extra IP are worth more than Finley's 14 pt ERA+ advantage
7. Alan Trammell, SS, Detroit Tigers: top ten in RC and a 130 OPS+ while adding +10 runs on defense
8. Fred McGriff, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: 2nd in OPS+ and RC
9. Carlton Fisk, C, Chicago White Sox: top ten in OPS+ while adding +6 fielding from behind the plate
10. Cal Ripken Jr., SS, Baltimore Orioles: +22 defense and not shabby with the bat either (114 OPS+)

But Ed Whitson ranks 8th in WAR and 45th in Win Shares, while Eddie Murray ranks 5th in Win Shares and 32nd in WAR. I am MUCH more likely to trust Eddie Murray than Ed Whitson. - Brock Hanke.

I mis-remembered your comment as comparing Whitson to Maddux. I think it's fairly reasonable to argue, despite their different career pedigrees, Whitson was a better pitcher in 1990 than Maddux. Whitson had a 148 ERA+ in 228 innings while Maddux had a 119 ERA+ in 237 IP. Whitson outpitched his peripherals, with a 2.60 ERA to a 3.07 FIP, but his FIP was still better than Maddux (who had a 3.46 ERA to go with a 3.15 FIP). Maddux struck batters out at a better rate, but not by much (5.5 per 9 to 5.0 per 9). All that being said, 1990 was a generally weak year for NL pitchers and it's possible that none of them will make my final ballot.

1990 Prelim- NL Only

1. Barry Bonds, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st in NL in OPS+ and RC with +28 fielding
2. Ryne Sandberg, 2B, Chicago Cubs: 2nd in RC from the keystone position
3. Lenny Dykstra, CF, Philadelphia Phillies: 3rd in RC with +25 defense from CF
4. Eddie Murray, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers: 2nd in OPS+ with 159
5. Frank Viola, P, New York Mets: top pitcher in the NL due to league-leading 249 IP and top five ERA+
6. Darryl Strawberry, RF, New York Mets: top ten in OPS+ and RC with +18 fielding
7. Ed Whitson, P, San Diego Padres: 148 ERA+ is 3rd in NL
8. Zane Smith, P, Montreal/Pittsburgh: a big drop-off but someone has to be 8th
9. Ron Gant, CF, Atlanta Braves: 139 OPS+ but only passable in CF
10. Barry Larkin, SS, Cincinnati Reds: good combo of bat (104 OPS+) and glove (+10 fielding)

1990 Prelim- Combined

1. Rickey Henderson, LF, Oakland A's: one of the great seasons of all-time, 1st in OPS+ and RC while adding massive advantages on the bases (+6) and with the glove (+16)
2. Barry Bonds, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st in NL in OPS+ and RC with +28 fielding
3. Roger Clemens, P, Boston Red Sox: 211 ERA+ laps the field
4. Cecil Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers: the Detroit faithful thought that Fielder was robbed of the MVP after hitting 50 home runs for the first time in a generation but the writers got this one right
5. Ryne Sandberg, 2B, Chicago Cubs: 2nd in NL RC from the keystone position
6. Lenny Dykstra, CF, Philadelphia Phillies: 3rd in NL RC with +25 defense from CF
7. Dennis Eckersley, RP, Oakland A's: a 0.61 ERA (and 603 ERA+) is absolutely ridiculous, WPA puts him second among AL pitchers behind Clemens
8. Eddie Murray, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers: 2nd in OPS+ with 159
9. Dave Stewart, P, Oakland A's
10. Chuck Finley, P, California Angels: Stewart's 31 extra IP are worth more than Finley's 14 pt ERA+ advantage
11. Alan Trammell, SS, Detroit Tigers: top ten in RC and a 130 OPS+ while adding +10 runs on defense
12. Fred McGriff, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: 2nd in OPS+ and RC
13. Carlton Fisk, C, Chicago White Sox: top ten in OPS+ while adding +6 fielding from behind the plate

14. Frank Viola, P, New York Mets: top pitcher in the NL due to league-leading 249 IP and top five ERA+
15. Cal Ripken Jr., SS, Baltimore Orioles: +22 defense and not shabby with the bat either (114 OPS+)
16. Darryl Strawberry, RF, New York Mets: top ten in OPS+ and RC with +18 fielding
17. Ed Whitson, P, San Diego Padres: 148 ERA+ is 3rd in NL
18. Jose Canseco, RF, Oakland A's
19. Julio Franco, 2B, Texas Rangers
t-20. George Brett, 1B, Kansas City Royals; Mark McGwire, 1B, Oakland A's

1990, prelim, zero adjustments, very rough.
There are some interesting names on this bad boy.

1-Rickey Henderson
2-Barry Bonds
3-Roger Clemens
4-Len Dykstra
5-Ryne Sandberg
6-Chuck Finley
7-Cecil Fielder
8-Doug Drabek
9-Jose Canseco
10-Eddie Murray
11-Cal Ripken Jr
12-Doc Gooden
13-Ramon Martinez
14-Erik Hanson
15-Fred McGriff
16-Barry Larkin
17-Darryl Strawberry
18-Hitting Ed Whitson
19-Alan Trammell
20-Brett Butler

Prelim ballot, no postseason credit but some small credit for playing for a Division-contender

1. Bonds
2. R Henderson
3. Fielder
4. Clemens
5. Sandberg
6. Dykstra
7. Strawberry
8. Murray
9. Stewart
10.McGriff
11.Viola
12.Trammell
13.C Finley

Also seriously considered hitters Larkin, Ripken, Canseco, McGwire, & Gant as well as pitchers Darwin, Eck, Thigpen, & Drabek

Honorable mention:
Thigpen & Eck--one set the saves record & one had an amazing ERA & IP/BB ratio
Welch--27 wins is cool looking, it got him a CY. Welch's 27 W's & Thigpen's 57 SV's were very odd & lucky totals
Fisk--good season for a surprise contender Sox team
Darwin--went from mop out reliever to excellent starter/ERA leader
Jack Armstrong--forgotten starter of the AS game for the NL

Add to the list at the top

Eckersley - Win Shares 20.0, WAR 3.0

Chris - I will certainly agree with you about Maddux in 1990. I spent the first three years of the 1990s waiting for Greg Maddux' arm to fall off from overuse. What I didn't know at the time was that Maddux threw almost no curve balls. 57 varieties of slider, but almost no curves. It's curve balls that are bad for the arm. I don't know enough about the entire staffs to comment, but I've wondered for years whether that wasn't what Leo Mazzone figured out. I have no memory of Glavine or Shmoltz have much of a curve, and several memories about their sliders. You might know more. Oh, and DL, you may well be right about relievers. WAR overrates pitchers, but it very seldom even mentions relievers. Clemons, who pitched EXTREMELY high workloads without destroying his arm, would be the exception. Clemons sometimes looks to me like Nolan Ryan with better control. - Brock

Sigh. This here is Brock Hanke's final ballot for 1990. I tried to take a look at the candidates for this year and make adjustments to the non-consensus of Win Shares and WAR. However, this is as bad as 1989 was, and I would, essentially, have to make up my own system to do the job well. I don't have a personal system. I did do a check to see that I was not systematically screwing WAR. I am not. Of the WAR top ten, there is only one who doesn't even get a vote. Ed Whitson (8th and 45th). Of the top ten in Win Shares, FOUR don't get a vote. Eddie Murray (5th and 32nd), Fred McGriff (7th and in a six-way tie for 26th-31st), Brett Butler (9th and 34th) and Carlton Fisk (10th and 37th). You will note that the guys who ranked high in WAR but not in Win Shares were pitchers, and the Win Shares favorites were position players. This is depressingly normal, and it's where I keep getting the idea that WAR overrates starting pitchers. WAR thinks that Doug Drabek was just a bit better than Carlton Fisk, and that Mike Harkey was better still. Win Shares thinks that Fisk was tenth in the game, and that Harkey and Drabek were not competitive at that level. I realize that pitchers vary a lot more than position players do, but still. Basically, Win Shares keeps thinking that Hall of Famers are the best players in the game, while WAR does not. Yes, these are yearly ballots, but I'm always going to have a problem with rankings like that. Anyway, for you WAR fans to roll your eyes at, here's my ballot:

1. Rickey! Henderson
2. Barry Bonds
3. Lenny the Dykstra
4. Roger Clemens
5. Ryne Sandberg
6. Cecil Fielder
7. Julio Franco
8. Darryl Strawberry
9. Alan Trammell
10. Cal Ripken, Jr.
11. Mark McGwire
12. Jose Canseco
13. Chuck Finley

- Brock Hanke

WAR thinks that Doug Drabek was just a bit better than Carlton Fisk

As I mentioned above, WAR is almost certainly underrating Fisk. Feel free to go with Win Shares on that one.

DL - Thanks for the kind comment. I'd go with Fisk, but he's behind Murray, McGriff and Butler. Those I might well believe. I don't remember the last time I said this, so here it is again: The underlying reasons why I think that WAR overrates pitchers are two. 1) Pitcher workloads - the number of IP a healthy starting pitcher can handle - have been dropping since 1880, when the schedules got long enough to make having just one pitcher no longer possible. The curve which best tracks this is the Errors per Game curve, which is the mirror of Fielding Percentage (A LOT of things track that curve). While the curve has flattened out, and the drop rate is nothing like it was in the 19th century, we just don't have guys pitching 300 innings any more, like Bob Gibson and a few sturdy guys in the early 1970s did. 2) The IP that the starters are "losing" are the MOST leveraged innings - the 8th and 9th. Under the combination of circumstances, I don't see how in hell a pitcher can actually be the MVP or terribly close to it. Roger Clemens comes closest, because he pitched the most innings, by a serious amount. My GUESS as to what has happened between WAR and Win Shares is that WAR thinks that the leverage that Win Shares applies to relievers is too high. Cutting down on the leverage of the late innings gives the starters some value back. But I think that WAR has overcompensated, either in the leverage thing, or/and somewhere else.

I know that this is a yearly project, but while I'm on the subject of complaining, I have a MUCH more serious one about WAR systems. As many of you know, Bill James' New Historical Abstract uses Win Shares as the root of a system that included career accumulated WS, peak, prime, and rate per 162 games. I do not know why no WAR system does this. It wouldn't be hard. Peak, prime and rate per 162 are trivial for a computer to calculate. The only issue of any seriousness is finding the number to use to compute the harmonic mean that Bill uses to keep the accumulated Win Shares on the same scale as the other three components. You can't just use 25, as Bill does, because the zero point for WAR is not the same as for Win Shares. But that's not a serious problem. I could do this easily if I had access to a database, but it's so simple that no one who can put up that database needs me.

DL, or anyone else who studies the WAR systems, can you tell me why no WAR system does this? It's starting to mess up Hall of Fame analysis. The Koufax / Dean / Sisler type of candidacy, where the guy had a phenomenal peak and prime, but also had an injury that destroyed half their career, are getting very bad reputations. This is because younger analysts, some of whom may not even have a New Historical, don't even seem to have encountered the concept of a thorough, balanced, HoF system. IMO, this is the single biggest problem in sabermetrics. We spend a lot of time trying to figure out who belongs in the Hall. We can't do that without a robust ranking system. Why? DL, Illiam, Dan, Sean, do you know? - Brock Hanke

I don't think everyone agrees on what makes a hall of famer. Is peak important? Is prime enough?

Dave Stewart with 14.2 WS seems low. Can somebody
double check this number?

Dave Stewart's Win Shares are 22.2 (according to the baseball gauge) for 1990. The 14.2 total is actually his WSAB for the year.

Here's my prelim ballot.
No postseason credit and 10% catcher bonus.

1 Henderson, Rickey 9759
2 Bonds, Barry 8731
3 Clemens, Roger 8503
4 Dykstra, Lenny 7558
5 Sandberg, Ryne 6702
6 Fielder, Cecil 6361
7 Finley, Chuck 5952
8 McGriff, Fred 5950
9 Trammell, Alan 5949
10 Murray, Eddie 5876
11 Ripken, Cal 5726
12 Fisk, Carlton 5601
13 Larkin, Barry 5596

@Brock re: post# 17
I agree Hall of Fame analysis can be complicated... but I'm not sure how I feel about what you refer to as "The Koufax/Dean/Sisler type of candidacy". I'm pretty much a career voter (as opposed to peak or prime) anyway so I tend to be skeptical of that type of candidate (at least in general). Regarding the differences between Win Shares and WAR, I think for a system like WS it's much more important to also look at peak and prime because it is basically (although not totally) starting at zero (as opposed to a replacement level where many players every year end up with negative numbers (like WAR systems)). Not to say that WAR systems can't or shouldn't do that as well (such as JAWS) it's just that (to me at least) it's much more obviously needed with a system like Win Shares as opposed to WAR. Not sure if I'm coherently saying what I'm trying to say...

Sorry about copying over Stewart wrong. I get all the data from Baseball Gauge if you ever need to doublecheck.

1990 MMP prelim

1. Rickey Henderson
2. Barry Bonds
3. Roger Clemens
4. Lenny Dykstra
5. Alan Trammell
6. Ryne Sandberg
7. Chuck Finley
8. Jose Canseco
9. Dave Stewart. Thanks for the Win Shares info. Faced the most batters
in the AL each season 1988-1990, not even counting the additional 88+ IP in the playoffs.
10. Cecil Fielder
11. Eddie Murray
12. Lance Parrish. Lower OPS+ than Fisk but more time as catcher
13. Ed Whitson, almost tied with #14 Frank Viola for NL MMPi

1990 ALCS

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Jose Canseco  4  11  3  2  0  0  0  1  5  5  .182  .412  .182  .594  2  0  0  
Rickey Henderson  4  17  1  5  0  0  0  3  1  2  .294  .316  .294  .610  2  1  0
Mark McGwire  4  13  2  2  0  0  0  2  3  3  .154  .353  .154  .507  0  0  0  
Walt Weiss  2  7  2  0  0  0  0  0  2  2  .000  .222  .000  .222  0  0  1

Wade Boggs  4  16  1  7  1  0  1  1  0  3  .438  .438  .688  1.125  0  0  0  

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Dennis Eckersley  3  0  0.00  0  0  2  0  3.1  2  0  0  0  3  0.600
Dave Stewart  2  2  1.13  2  0  0  0  16.0  8  2  2  2  4  0.625

Mike Boddicker  1  1  2.25  0  1  0  1  8.0  6  4  2  3  7  1.125
Roger Clemens  2  2  3.52  0  1  0  0  7.2  7  3  3  5  4  1.565

1990 NLCS

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Barry Larkin  6  23  5  6  2  0  0  1  3  1  .261  .346  .348  .694  3  0  1

Jay Bell  6  20  3  5  1  0  1  1  4  3  .250  .400  .450  .850  0  0  1  
Barry Bonds  6  18  4  3  0  0  0  1  6  5  .167  .375  .167  .542  2  0  0  
Bobby Bonilla  6  21  0  4  1  0  0  1  3  1  .190  .292  .238  .530  0  1  1  
Andy Van Slyke  6  24  3  5  1  1  0  3  1  7  .208  .240  .333  .573  1  0  0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP  
Jose Rijo  2  2  4.38  1  0  0  0  12.1  10  6  6  7  15  1.378
Rob Dibble  4  0  0.00  0  0  1  0  5.0  0  0  0  1  10  0.200  

Doug Drabek  2  2  1.65  1  1  0  1  16.1  12  4  3  3  13  0.918
Zane Smith  2  1  6.00  0  2  0  0  9.0  14  6  6  1  8  1.667

1990 World Series

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Barry Larkin  4  17  3  6  1  1  0  1  2  0  .353  .421  .529  .950

Jose Canseco  4  12  1  1  0  0  1  2  2  3  .083  .214  .333  .548  0  0  0  
Rickey Henderson  4  15  2  5  2  0  1  1  3  4  .333  .444  .667  1.111  3  0  0
Mark McGwire  4  14  1  3  0  0  0  0  2  4  .214  .313  .214  .527  0  0  2

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP  
Rob Dibble  3  0  0.00  1  0  0  0  4.2  3  0  0  1  4  0.857
Jose Rijo  2  2  0.59  2  0  0  0  15.1  9  1  1  5  14  0.913

Dennis Eckersley  2  0  6.75  0  1  0  0  1.1  3  1  1  0  1  2.250
Dave Stewart  2  2  2.77  0  2  0  1  13.0  10  6  4  6  5  1.231

9.6 more scoreless innings from Dibble might make him reliever of the year.

Henderson, Larkin, Stewart, Rijo, Drabek & Boddicker will get postseason bonuses from me.

Stewart is looking good for a slot. McGwire only had one solid post-season in his whole career.

Iieiam - The basic argument for seriously including peak and prime - and giving serious consideration to the guys who have lots of that but short careers, is that the second group - the Koufax / Dean / Sisler types - make an extra contribution to winning a pennant, because they are SO much help in their good seasons. Koufax and Dean won pennants that their teams would not have won with a "just good" pitcher in their place. Sisler never won any pennants, but he was the key figure on the 1922 Browns, who lost by one game. After 1923, which Sisler completely missed, he came back at about half his pervious per-year value, and the Browns fell out of contention (although that was hardly the only reason). - Brock

What I didn't know at the time was that Maddux threw almost no curve balls. 57 varieties of slider, but almost no curves. It's curve balls that are bad for the arm. I don't know enough about the entire staffs to comment, but I've wondered for years whether that wasn't what Leo Mazzone figured out. I have no memory of Glavine or Shmoltz have much of a curve, and several memories about their sliders.

I think you may be misremembering, at least about Glavine and Maddux. Neither really threw a slider at all. Both changed speeds off their fastballs with several different change-ups and both threw cut fastballs, but I don't recall either of them utilizing the slider. Smoltz did feature a sharp breaking slider, and was the only one of the three to have any real time lost in his prime to an arm injury.

Of the Braves pitchers in the Mazzone era, the only one to be successful and have a big curve was Steve Avery, but he, of course, flamed out very early, supporting the more general point you make about injuries and curves.

dlf - I may also be misremembering, or maybe the announcers had it wrong about Maddux. I knew about the cut fastball, but all anyone seemed to comment on was his ability to "get away" with sliders that, to the observers, slid way out of the strike zone. It's possible that Maddux, who was very bright, might have had two cut fastballs, one going in each direction, but it sure sounded like sliders to me. In any case, the point was about curve balls. Bill James first mentioned this back in the 1980s, in his annual Abstracts. He was talking about Billy Martin blowing up a bunch of young arms with Oakland, not just by overworking them, but also by insisting that they favor the curve ball. I've kept track ever since then, and curve ball artists do, indeed, seem to come up with a LOT more arm trouble than any other kind of pitcher. It also shows up in the 1900-1910 period. Pitchers then were very divided on career length. The fastball guys - Young, Waddell, Johnson - had long careers. The curve ball guys - Phillippe, Leever, Tannehill - only lasted for a decade. Even Iron Man Joe McGinnity had a very short career, measured in years. I've seen references to his throwing endless underhand curve balls. Of course, his willingness to take on both ends of double headers counts as well, but he did have an 1880s-type career - one decade of real good pitching and that was that. - Brock