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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Wednesday, March 02, 2016Most Meritorious Player: 1991 DiscussionTwins beat the Braves in seven games. Vote for 13 this year. Player SH WS BBR WAR Cal Ripken Jr. 35.2 11.5 Barry Bonds 32.9 7.9 Ryne Sandberg 33.2 7.0 Barry Larkin 26.4 6.1 Mickey Tettleton 27.0 5.6 Ozzie Smith 25.5 5.0 Ken Griffey Jr. 31.5 7.1 Lou Whitaker 25.9 6.7 Jose Canseco 32.5 5.3 Terry Pendleton 30.7 6.1 Chris Sabo 22.2 5.0 Frank Thomas 33.6 7.0 Rafael Palmeiro 30.5 5.7 Will Clark 29.7 5.2 Matt Williams 23.3 5.5 Ruben Sierra 26.5 5.0 Tony Gwynn 19.7 5.6 John Kruk 25.4 4.7 Craig Biggio 21.2 4.4 Wade Boggs 25.3 6.4 Steve Finley 18.6 5.1 Bobby Bonilla 30.6 3.9 Ron Gant 27.1 1.9 Danny Tartabull 27.1 4.4 Joe Carter 24.0 4.7 Jay Bell 23.0 3.8 Paul Molitor 32.2 5.3 Brett Butler 26.6 5.1 Julio Franco 29.1 6.2 Robby Thompson 23.5 5.1 Willie Randolph 21.6 4.2 Rickey Henderson 26.1 4.6 Edgar Martinez 24.3 6.1 Darryl Strawberry 23.7 3.6 Andy Van Slyke 21.9 3.6 Robin Ventura 22.7 5.3 Devon White 28.6 6.3 Paul O'Neill 17.8 4.9 Fred McGriff 26.9 3.4 Dave Henderson 25.9 5.4 Tony Phillips 23.3 5.2 Jeff Bagwell 23.7 4.8 Shane Mack 20.0 5.0 Ivan Calderon 20.3 3.3 Howard Johnson 26.1 3.4 Wally Joyner 24.1 3.8 Roberto Alomar 26.1 4.5 Pitcher Roger Clemens 25.6 8.0 Tom Candiotti 20.2 7.1 Tom Glavine 20.8 9.3 Jim Abbott 20.8 7.6 Kevin Tapani 21.2 6.8 Mark Langston 20.9 7.3 Jose Rijo 16.8 5.7 Pete Harnisch 15.6 4.4 Dennis Martinez 19.0 5.8 Nolan Ryan 13.8 5.3 Bret Saberhagen 16.0 5.1 Mike Moore 16.4 4.6 Andy Benes 17.0 4.0 Greg Maddux 17.1 4.1 Tommy Greene 15.5 4.2 David Cone 15.3 4.3 Greg Swindell 13.4 3.8 Chris Bosio 13.7 5.1 Jimmy Key 16.6 4.3 Jack McDowell 18.0 4.3 Jack Morris 17.9 4.4 Scott Erickson 17.6 4.5 Mike Morgan 17.4 4.7 Dwight Gooden 12.1 3.7 Steve Avery 14.0 5.8 John Smoltz 12.2 5.3 Bill Swift 14.0 3.7 Bryan Harvey 18.2 3.4 Todd Frohwirth 11.2 3.2 Mark Eichhorn 10.7 3.0 Mitch Williams 16.8 3.0
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1. DL from MN Posted: March 02, 2016 at 03:05 PM (#5168267)1) Cal Ripken - Best season by anyone since Gooden 85. Terrific glovework
2) Barry Bonds - Another prime Bonds season
3) Ryne Sandberg
4) Roger Clemens - best pitcher
5) Barry Larkin
6) Mickey Tettleton - good hitting for a catcher
7) Ozzie Smith
8) Tom Candiotti - strong PWAA
9) Ken Griffey Jr - only adequate fielding
10) Lou Whitaker - ditto, glove is not great
11) Tom Glavine
12) Jose Canseco - good fielding year
13) Terry Pendleton
14-20) Chris Sabo, Frank Thomas, Rafael Palmeiro, Jim Abbott, Kevin Tapani, Will Clark, Mark Langston
21-25) Jose Rijo, Matt Williams, Pete Harnisch, Ruben Sierra, Craig Biggio
I don't trust defensive stats, but Canseco as a better fielder than the young Griffey is, shall we say, counter-intuitive.
I have to agree here, and add more: BBRef has Canseco at -7 Rfield, his 2nd lowest total, as a RF, and Jr. as +7 (his best in his young career, but far below his peak) as a CF. Fangraphs agrees exactly: -7 runs for Canseco, +7 for Griffey.
Of course, Fielder wasn't remotely as good as Rickey or Ripken, both of whom are all-time greats having career years. He was the HR and RBI leader for both years, but obviously added almost no other value (90, 78 walks) as he had no defensive value or speed.
Bill James made a case that Devon White was definitely better than Fielder, using a very crude method of comparing their offensive contributions, which were nearly even, and then pointing out that you've then got Devon White in center field and on the bases, vs. Fielder. WAR has it 4.4-4.0 oWAR for Devon, and 6.3 to 3.7 total WAR.
2. Barry Bonds - top 10 in offense, baserunning and OF defense
3. Frank Thomas - his 2nd best offensive season (league-adjusted)
4. Roger Clemens - league-leading 271 IP of league-leading 165 ERA+ (2nd most IP of the 90's)
5. Ken Griffey, Jr. - best CF in the game
6. Ryne Sandberg - best 2B in the game
7. Tom Glavine - led NL in ERA+, 2nd in IP
8. Lou Whitaker - his best season overall; .279/.391/.489
9. Terry Pendleton - solid across board; best 3B in the game
10. Devon White - stellar OF defense along with above-average offense and baserunning
11. Barry Larkin - 143 OPS+ and well-above average with glove and on basepaths
12. Julio Franco - incredible offensive season (146 OPS+, league-leading .341 BA) combined with great baserunning (and mediocre IF defense)
13. Mickey Tettleon - best offensive and overall catcher in baseball (not even close)
Considered (#14-25, in random order): Boggs, Canseco, Edgar Martinez, Tartabull, Maddux, Abbott, Candiotti, Palmiero, CHRIS SABO (!), Langston, Robin Ventura
Schmidt in 1981 scores higher than Ripken 1991. Same with Morgan 1975 and Carlton 1972. Gibson 1968 is a little lower.
1. Barry Bonds, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates: leads NL in OPS+ and RC, adds +19 with the glove
2. Ryne Sandberg, 2B, Chicago Cubs: tied for 2nd with 114 RC while adding +6 from the keystone
3. Barry Larkin, SS, Cincinnati Reds: 143 OPS+ and +3 fielding as a shortstop
4. Tom Glavine, P, Atlanta Braves: tied for 1st in ERA+ with 246 IP for 2nd in the NL
5. Terry Pendleton, 3B, Atlanta Braves: not a great MVP choice but top ten in OPS+ and RC is decent
6. Will Clark, 1B, San Francisco Giants: another quietly impressive season
7. Dennis Martinez, P, Montreal Expos: tied for 1st in ERA+ while top ten in IP with 222
8. Chris Sabo, 3B, Cincinnati Reds: the spectacles!
9. Bobby Bonilla, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: 3rd in OPS+ but gives back a lot on defense (-12 fielding)
10. Jose Rijo, P, Cincinnati Reds: the third NL pitcher with a 153 ERA+ but only 204 IP
1. Cal Ripken Jr, SS, Baltimore Orioles: an all-time great season
2. Frank Thomas, 1B, Chicago White Sox: leads AL in OPS+ and RC
3. Roger Clemens, P, Boston Red Sox: laps the field with 165 ERA+ and 271 IP
4. Ken Griffey Jr, CF, Seattle Mariners: top five in OPS+ with +7 fielding in CF
5. Julio Franco, 2B, Texas Rangers: 146 OPS+ from 2B though only -6 fielding
6. Rafael Palmeiro, 1B, Texas Rangers: 155 OPS+
7. Lou Whitaker, 2B, Detroit Tigers: cracks the top ten in OPS+ while adding +11 fielding
8. Paul Molitor, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
9. Wade Boggs, 3B, Boston Red Sox: doesn't lead in any category but does everything well
10. Tom Candiotti, P, Cleveland/Toronto: 2nd in AL ERA+
1. Cal Ripken Jr, SS, Baltimore Orioles: an all-time great season, 162 OPS+ and +22 fielding
2. Frank Thomas, 1B, Chicago White Sox: leads AL in OPS+ and RC
3. Roger Clemens, P, Boston Red Sox: laps the field with 165 ERA+ and 271 IP
4. Barry Bonds, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates: leads NL in OPS+ and RC, adds +19 with the glove
5. Ken Griffey Jr, CF, Seattle Mariners: top five in AL OPS+ with +7 fielding in CF
6. Ryne Sandberg, 2B, Chicago Cubs: tied for 2nd in NL with 114 RC while adding +6 from the keystone
7. Julio Franco, 2B, Texas Rangers: 146 OPS+ from 2B though only -6 fielding
8. Barry Larkin, SS, Cincinnati Reds: 143 OPS+ and +3 fielding as a shortstop
9. Rafael Palmeiro, 1B, Texas Rangers: 155 OPS+
10. Lou Whitaker, 2B, Detroit Tigers: cracks the top ten in OPS+ while adding +11 fielding
11. Paul Molitor, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
12. Tom Glavine, P, Atlanta Braves: tied for 1st in ERA+ with 246 IP for 2nd in the NL
13. Wade Boggs, 3B, Boston Red Sox: doesn't lead in any category but does everything well
14. Tom Candiotti, P, Cleveland/Toronto: 2nd in AL ERA+
15. Terry Pendleton, 3B, Atlanta Braves: not a great MVP choice but top ten in OPS+ and RC is decent
16. Mickey Tettleton, C/DH, Detroit Tigers: DH penalty keeps him off ballot
17. Will Clark, 1B, San Francisco Giants: another quietly impressive season
18. Dennis Martinez, P, Montreal Expos: tied for 1st in ERA+ while top ten in IP with 222
19. Kevin Tapani, P, Minnesota Twins
20. Jim Abbott, P, California Angels
1. Cal Ripken Jr.
2. Barry Bonds
3. Mickey Tettleton
4. Roger Clemens
5. Ryne Sandberg
6. Tom Glavine
7. Ken Griffey Jr.
8. Frank Thomas
9. Will Clark
10. Jose Canseco
11. Tim Candiotti
12. Barry Larkin
13. Julio Franco
1. Cal Ripken - one of the greatest modern seasons period
2. Barry Bonds - top 10 in offense, baserunning and OF defense
3. Frank Thomas - his 2nd best offensive season (league-adjusted)
4. Roger Clemens - league-leading 271 IP of league-leading 165 ERA+ (2nd most IP of the 90's)
5. Ken Griffey, Jr. - best CF in the game
6. Tom Glavine - led NL in ERA+, 2nd in IP (+ for post-season)
7. Terry Pendleton - solid across board; best 3B in the game (+ for WS)
8. Ryne Sandberg - best 2B in the game
9. Lou Whitaker - his best season overall; .279/.391/.489
10. Devon White - stellar OF defense along with above-average offense and baserunning
11. Barry Larkin - 143 OPS+ and well-above average with glove and on basepaths
12. Julio Franco - incredible offensive season (146 OPS+, league-leading .341 BA) combined with great baserunning (and mediocre IF defense)
13. Mickey Tettleon - best offensive and overall catcher in baseball (not even close)
Considered (#14-25, in random order): Wade Boggs, Jose Canseco, Edgar Martinez, Greg Maddux, Jim Abbott, Tom Candiotti, Rafael Palmiero, CHRIS SABO (!), Mark Langston, Robin Ventura, Tapani
Others (#26-50): Bryan Harvey (crazy relief season - check out his numbers!), Duane Ward (his, too!), Dennis Martinez, Bobby Bonilla, Steve Avery, John Smoltz, Tony Phillips, Dave Henderson, Brett Butler, Jack Morris, Kirby Puckett, Tony Gwynn, Steve Finley, Ozzie Smith, Matt Williams, Will Clark, Paul Molitor, Danny Tartabull, Robby Thompson, Jose Rijo, Nolan Ryan, Chris Bosio, Jeff Bagwell, Paul O'Neill
If that's the case then the DH penalty is too big. Most WAR systems essentially double the DH penalty by docking players in both batting runs and position runs. If Frank Thomas can't make your ballot this season, that's a clear sign that you're overdoing it.
He was always useless out there, and then his last few seasons he was strictly a DH, but it's true that in 1991 he did play 1st quite a bit.
Tartabull was close but he played in almost 30 less games.
As always, Bonds was excellent, but it was kind of a "down" year overall (for him) - .292/.410/.514
And Ripken was amazing and actually beat Thomas in traditional stats, but Thomas walked nearly 3 times as often.
Thomas has the most batting wins in baseball above average. Next closest is Bonds with 5.7. However, his baserunning is below average, his Fielding costs him half a win, his positional replacement value is much less than Canseco but similar to Will Clark.
Now I add in Dan R's standard deviations league adjustment which is .948 for the AL and .973 for the NL.
Dan R didn't give wins vs positional average for DH. I'll try to figure out "average" DH in 1991. Looking over DH who are in the cluster of first basemen with 0 WAPA I see Kevin Maas, Sam Horn, Brian Downing and Chili Davis. I'm going to put positional average between Downing (2.2 WARP) and Davis (2.6 WARP). Neither of them had the playing time of Thomas so I'm going to adjust for that up to 2.7 WARP when you consider Thomas' playing time. That gives him a WAPA2 of 3.5, or equivalent to Canseco.
I have Canseco and Thomas as essentially tied in 1991.
1. Ripken
2. Bonds
3. Glavine
4. Thomas
5. Griffey
6. Clemens
7. Pendleton
8. Sandberg
9. Abbott
10.Langston
11.Tettleton
12.Whitaker
13.J Franco
Which produces this top 13:
1. Ripken
2. Bonds
3. Sandberg
4. Clemens
5. Pendleton
6. Glavine
7. Thomas
8. Whitaker
9. - 12. are essentially in a tie - Tettleton, Canseco, Larkin, Griffey - that's the order they fall out in my last link above; I might slide Larkin to the top of the grouping
13. Saberhagen
Skimming earlier comments, Saberhagen looks like my only idiosyncratic choice. He's kind of light on IP and while his numbers are good, I'm not necessarily seeing what gets him this high in my system (6th in the AL in FIP, 3rd in WHIP, 9th in ERA+ per BB-Ref). But nobody else is jumping out at me as a glaring omission by my system, either.
I tried to dig a little bit into why my system likes Saberhagen so much. Player won-lost records are calculated game by game (really, play by play) and I think that Saberhagen's run distribution across games was exceptional in 1991. Looking at Saberhagen's Game Logs, for example, I count 18 starts where Saberhagen pitched at least 7 innings and allowed 2 or fewer runs. By comparison, Jim Abbott, who pitched more innings at a lower season ERA and is mentioned by several people in this thread pitched 7 or more innings w/ 2 or fewer runs allowed only 15 times (in 6 more starts than Saberhagen made). Those are arbitrary cutoffs (Abbott had a game where he allowed 1 R in 6.2 IP and one where he allowed 3 R in 8 IP), but I think that's basically what my system sees in Saberhagen vis-a-vis Abbott (and others). I may still push Abbott ahead of Saberhagen for my final ballot. I'll probably mull it over until at least Monday.
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