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Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Most Meritorious Player: 1995 Ballot

For 1995, each voter should rank the top 14 players from all leagues combined.

Balloting is scheduled to close at 4pm EDT on 3 August 2016.

Anyone can vote, even if you do not normally participate in Hall of Merit discussions. If you have never participated in an MMP election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 2 August 2016.

For detailed rules see one of our previous ballots.

DL from MN Posted: July 26, 2016 at 05:54 PM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: July 27, 2016 at 11:29 AM (#5272929)
1) Greg Maddux - postseason run makes this a top season for any pitcher
2) Randy Johnson - 3rd best pitching season of the past 10 seasons after Maddux 1995 and 1994
3) Mike Piazza - not often a catcher takes my top position player spot
4) Barry Bonds - 3rd best bat, good glove
5) Tim Salmon - A little less bat than Barry
6) John Valentin - well rounded contributions but not a great baserunner
7) Jim Thome - 3B this season and not a bad fielder
8) Barry Larkin - better baserunner than Valentin but not as good in the field
9) Albert Belle - strong postseason hitting contributions move him up the list
10) Mark McGwire - Almost as much bat as Salmon
11) Craig Biggio - rates poorly with the glove or would rank higher
12) Frank Thomas - Best bat, poor fielder
13) Tom Glavine - postseason boosts him onto the ballot
14) Edgar Martinez - As much bat as Thomas but DH penalty hurts him

15-20) David Cone, Reggie Sanders, Tim Wakefield, Mike Mussina, Kenny Rogers, Jim Edmonds
   2. OCF Posted: July 27, 2016 at 02:11 PM (#5273157)
I'll go ahead and post my contemporary opinion ballot - adapted from a memo I wrote in 1995 - as I posted it on the discussion thread.

1. Greg Maddux
2. Mike Piazza
3. Barry Bonds
4. Edgar Martinez
5. Barry Larkin
6. Craig Biggio
7. Albert Belle
8. Randy Johnson
9. Tim Salmon
10. John Valentin
11. Jim Thome
12. Mike Mussina
13. Reggie Sanders
14. Chuck Knoblauch
   3. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 27, 2016 at 06:12 PM (#5273404)
Official 1995 MMP Ballot (no postseason bonuses):

1) Barry Bonds: Best ML player and left fielder.
2) Greg Maddux: Best ML pitcher (no other pitcher close) - very close to Bonds.
3) Edgar Martinez: Best AL player and DH.
4) Barry Larkin: Best ML shortstop.
5) Craig Biggio: Best ML second baseman.
6) Mike Piazza: Best ML catcher.
7) Tim Salmon: Best ML right fielder.
8) Frank Thomas: Best ML first baseman.
9) Mark McGwire
10) Chuck Knoblauch: Best AL second baseman.
11) John Valentin: Best AL shortstop.
12) Albert Belle: Best AL left fielder.
13) Reggie Sanders: Best NL center fielder.
14) Randy Johnson: Best AL pitcher.
   4. caiman Posted: July 27, 2016 at 07:20 PM (#5273437)
Here's my RPA ratings, showing the runs produced over the median player:

1. Frank Thomas 62.78 runs
2. Edgar Martinez 52.03 runs
3. Mark McGwire 49.74 runs
4. Albert Belle 49.62 runs
5. Barry Bonds 49.35 runs
6. Craig Biggio 48.59 runs
7. Greg Maddux 47.08 runs
8. Randy Johnson 40.39 runs
9. Tim Salmon 39.97 runs
10. Jim Thome 39.59 runs
11. Mike Piazza 35.93 runs
12. Mo Vaughn 33.04 runs
13. Reggie Sanders 33.02 runs
14. Eric Karros 32.43 runs
15. Manny Ramirez 31.80 runs
16. Jeff Bagwell 31.34 runs
17. Mike Mussina 31.09 runs
18. John Valentin 28.70 runs
19. Barry Larkin 28.11 runs
   5. Qufini Posted: July 31, 2016 at 10:17 AM (#5275536)
Couldn't post to the discussion thread for some reason so I'll forego a prelim this time and jump straight to the ballot:

1. Greg Maddux, P, Atlanta Braves: continues to dominate with a 260 ERA+ in over 200 innings
2. Edgar Martinez, DH, Seattle Mariners: leads the AL in OPS+ and RC with 185 and 161 (17 better than 2nd place)
3. Mike Piazza, C, Los Angeles Dodgers: the best position player in the NL
4. John Valentin, SS, Boston Red Sox: a crazy good year with 138 OPS+ and +23 fielding
5. Barry Bonds, LF, San Francisco Giants: 179 OPS+ and +12 fielding
6. Albert Belle, LF, Cleveland Indians: 177 OPS+ and 144 RC
7. Frank Thomas, 1B/DH, Chicago White Sox: 179 OPS+ but dragged down by -12 fielding
8. Randy Johnson, P, Seattle Mariners: the best pitcher in the AL
9. Tim Salmon, RF, California Angels: 4th in AL with 165 OPS+
10. Craig Biggio, 2B, Houston Astros
11. Jim Thome, 3B, Cleveland Indians
12. Chuck Knoblauch, 2B, Minnesota Twins: three guys with big bats playing glove positions
13. Reggie Sanders, RF, Cincinnati Reds: third in NL in OPS+ with 155, adds +13 with the glove
14. Barry Larkin, SS, Cincinnati Reds: 134 OPS+ and shortstop bonus earn Barry the last ballot spot
   6. ThickieDon Posted: August 01, 2016 at 10:09 AM (#5276121)
1. Greg Maddux, P - Maddux's 10 CGs, great post-season and historic WHIP and WPA numbers gave him the edge over Johnson, Valentin and Bonds
2. Randy Johnson, P - one of the greatest pitching seasons of all time
3. John Valentin, SS - Ripken-caliber defensive numbers are consistent with other seasons early in his career; he also nearly triple-slashed .300/.400/.500 as a SS
4. Barry Bonds, LF - still one of the all-around best players in the game
5. Albert Belle, LF - .690 SLG dwarfs everyone but McGwire
6. Edgar Martinez, DH - an all-time great hitting year (182 wRC+)
7. Reggie Sanders, RF - phenomenal hitting; solid baserunning and fielding, too
8. Chuck Knoblauch, 2B - Biggio and Knoblauch were the best 2B in baseball and it's not even close in 1995
9. Bernie Williams, CF - typically solid offense from Bernie, back when he could field his position well
10. Craig Biggio, 2B
11. Tim Salmon, RF
12. Mike Piazza, C
13. Mark McGwire, 1B - 183 wRC+ was higher than Edgar Martinez; .441 OBP; ISO over .400; worth more on offense than all but five players despite having 200 less plate appearances
14. Hideo Nomo, P - over 11K per 9, a feat only achieved 3 times prior to 1995 (Randy Johnson did it in '95, also)
   7. DL from MN Posted: August 01, 2016 at 10:44 AM (#5276151)
Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: July 30, 2016 at 09:29 PM (#5275422)
For some reason I can't reach the ballot thread as logged in at the moment, so DL or someone else, could you please transfer this to the ballot thread. Thank you.

1995 MMP final ballot:

My methodology: I use an average of bWAR, fWAR (using the average of FIP and RA-9 numbers for pitchers), gWAR, DanR WARP (substituting BP for pre 1893 and post-2005 years), and Win Shares (crudely adjusted to a WAR-like value) . For catchers post 1948, I use Max Marchi/BP game-calling numbers for defensive values. I also believe the DH penalty is too harsh, so I split the difference between DH replacement level and 1b replacement level.

For each player's average WAR (mWAR for Michael WAR, or Mengel (my last name) WAR or just My WAR)I then plug it into a DanR-style peak-rate salary estimator (the Sfrac for all pitchers is 1). I don't give an additional catcher bonus since most don't play a full seasons worth of games, and the missing games are already built into the rate part of the salary estimator (note: this hurts catchers like Bench and Berra who did tend to play full seasons since they played their "off" days at positions other than catcher). I do not include a post-season bonus except as a final tiebreaker.

1. Greg Maddux (9.55 mWAR (10.75/162g) / $28,895,881)
2. Randy Johnson - AL MMP (8.02 mWAR (9.02/162g) / $20,935,438)
3. Albert Belle - AL MMPosition Player (7.35 mWAR (8.27/162g) / $17,754,417)
4. Barry Bonds - NL MMPosition Player (7.42 mWAR (8.35/162g) / $17,753,978)
5. Mike Piazza (6.37 mWAR (7.17/162g) / $16,265,641)
6. Edgar Martinez (7.02 mWAR (7.84/162g) / $15,956,164)
7. John Valentin (6.84 mWAR (7.70/162g) / $15,799,382)
8. Tim Salmon (6.52 mWAR (7.34/162g) / $14,155,992)
9. Jim Thome (5.94 mWAR (6.68/162g) / $12,967,258)
10. Reggie Sanders (5.99 mWAR (6.74/162g) / $12,905,693)
11. Mark McGwire (5.33 mWAR (5.99/162g) / $12,870,956)
12. Barry Larkin (5.90 mWAR (6.64/162g) / $12,659,473)
13. Craig Biggio (6.04 mWAR (6.80/162g) / $11,995,104)
14. Mike Mussina (5.69 mWAR (6.40/162g) / $11,291,957)

15-20. Bernie Williams, Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, David Cone, Kenny Rogers, Tim Wakefield.
   8. MrC. Posted: August 01, 2016 at 12:59 PM (#5276299)
1. Did not use hitter WAR for pitchers on the preliminary ballot. The only pitcher much affected is Tom Glavine.
2. Had to tweak the NL numbers because of an issue with my replacement runs calculation.

1995 Final Ballot
1. Greg Maddux 9.97 WARR An Amazing season Allowed about 3 runs per game less than league average.
2. Randy Johnson 8.46 WARR Great stats, even with one of the poorer defenses in AL.
3. Edgar Martinez 7.52 WARR Best ML hitter; even with DH penalty still best position player.
4. Barry Bonds 7.47 WARR A typical Bondian year.
5. Tim Salmon 6.73 WARR
6. Mike Mussina 6.38 WARR
7. Barry Larkin 6.25 WARR
8. Mike Piazza 6.16 WARR Best rate stats in NL, but fewer games than others effected his ballot position.
9. Reggie Sanders 6.13 WARR
10. David Cone 5.74 WaRR
11. Albert Belle 5.50 WARR
12. Sammy Sosa 5.51 WARR a very good defensive season lifted him onto the ballot.
13. Tim Wakefield 5.50 WARR
14. Tom Glavine 5.39 WARR

Rest of the top 20:
15. John Valentin DRA defensive runs for Valentin is-5 rather than the +23 (from Baseball reference I believe) quoted by others. This is why the use of different stat sources gives a better picture of the stats.
16. Jeff Bagwell
17 Mo Vaughn
18. Dennis Martinez
19. Mark McGwire
20. Craig Biggio
   9. bjhanke Posted: August 02, 2016 at 08:26 AM (#5277015)
Here's Brock Hanke's, as he runs out th door to go to Indianapolis to work at GenCon:

1. Barry Bonds
2. Greg Maddux
3. Edgar Martinez
4. John Valentin
5. Randy Johnson
6. Albert Belle
7. Craig Biggio
8. Tim Slamon
9. Mike Piazza
10. Barry Larkin
11. Jim Edmonds
12. Jim Thome
13. Frank Thomas
14. Bernie Williams
   10. Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle Posted: August 02, 2016 at 10:18 AM (#5277091)
An interesting year. Two pitchers at the top and only one other who is towards the bottom. No postseason credit but some small credit for playing for a Division-contender:
1. Maddux-just amazing what he was able to do in 1994 & 1995 which were both hitter's years, 10 CGs, excellent W/L
2. Johnson-a semi-distant #2 but an amazing year--294 strikeouts, low ERA just not in comparison to Maddux, also a great W/L
3. Bonds-ho-hum another great year
4. Edgar Martinez-doubles, BA, and walks-machine
5. Belle-50 HRs & 50 doubles, biggest bat in potent Cleveland line up
6. Valentin-a forgotten great year, a big reason why Boston won the East
7. Sanders-career year for a poor man's Barry Bonds, along with Larkin big for Cincy
8. Salmon-best player on Angels heartbreaker
9. Piazza-catcher bonus but didn't play a ton of games
10.Thomas-I felt fielding and positional penalties may have been too severe
11.Biggio-good overall player
12.Larkin-great SB total & success rate which WAR may have over-rewarded, excellent overall regardless
13.Mussina-high IP in tough AL East
14.McGwire-low games played kept from being higher
   11. EricC Posted: August 02, 2016 at 12:56 PM (#5277280)
1995 MMP ballot.

1. Greg Maddux. Another fantastic season.
2. Edgar Martinez. Best hitter; no DH penalty in my system.
3. Mike Piazza. Led league in OPS+ as C.
4. Randy Johnson. Top AL P.
5. Barry Bonds. Top LF.
6. Albert Belle. Top AL LF.
7. John Valentin. Top SS.
8. Chuck Knoblauch. Top 2B.
9. Tim Salmon. Top RF.
10. Barry Larkin. Top NL SS.
11. Craig Biggio. Top NL 2B.
12. Bernie Williams. Top CF.
13. Mike Mussina. Next best P.
14. Tim Wakefield. 3rd-highest MLB ERA+; fewer IP than Mussina.
   12. DL from MN Posted: August 03, 2016 at 04:19 PM (#5278379)
balloting is closed

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