1997 Prelim

1) Roger Clemens

Best pitching seasons in the history of the MMP project by my point score

1985 Gooden 21.5
1995 Maddux 21.4
1971 Carlton 21.2
1994 Maddux 20.6
1997 Clemens 19.9
1968 Gibson 19.5
1902 Waddell 19.1
1963 Koufax 18.7
1972 Seaver 18.3
1971 Seaver 18.0

2) Mike Piazza - best position player BEFORE the catcher bonus
3) Craig Biggio - strong baserunning
4) Pedro Martinez
5) Ken Griffey Jr
6) Randy Johnson
7) Barry Bonds
8) Greg Maddux
9) Larry Walker - Piazza, Bonds, Bagwell and Thomas all had better bats
10 Jeff Bagwell - glove separates him from Thomas
11) Frank Thomas
12) Andy Pettitte
13) Curt Schilling
14) Raul Mondesi - great glove year

15-19) Todd Hundley, Tim Salmon, Scott Rolen, Kevin Brown, Ivan Rodriguez
20-21) Justin Thompson, Edgardo Alfonzo

My written-in-1997 post-season all-star document. First, the National League:

Batting order:
1. Craig Biggio, 2B
2. Barry Bonds, LF
3. Mike Piazza, C
4. Larry Walker, RF
5. Jeff Bagwell, 1B
6. Mark McGwire, DH (yeah, I put a DH on the NL team)
7. Ray Lankford, CF
8. Ken Caminiti, 3B
9. Jeff Blauser, SS (*)

Pitching rotation:

1. Pedro Martinez
2. Greg Maddux
3. Darryl Kile
4. Kevin Brown
5. Tom Glavine

Reserves:

Tony Gwynn, OF/PH
Chipper Jones, IF
Walt Weiss, SS
Charles Johnson, C
Steve Finley, CF
Raul Mondesi, OF
Jeff Shaw, Closer
Trevor Hoffman, RP
Curt Schilling, P
John Smoltz, P
Denny Neagle, P

(*) I noted that Barry Larkin was the best SS in the league when he played, but he only played 73 games.

My Cy Young vote:

1. Pedro Martinez
2. Greg Maddux (but see below)
3. Darryl Kile
4. Kevin Brown
5. Tom Glavine

My MVP vote:

1. Mike Piazza
2. Larry Walker
3. Greg Maddux (!)
4. Pedro Martinez
5. Jeff Bagwell
6. Barry Bonds

I spent a long time in the memo arguing Martinez versus Maddux. I was going by RA then, not ERA (although I didn’t really have park corrections). Martinez allowed quite a few UER, Maddux almost no UER. Voting one way for CYA and the other way for MVP was me twisting myself into pretzels - but I did think they were very close.

Another short paragraph:

“Bonds has now reached the point of not even getting a lot of respect. Once again, he has failed to produce in the post-season, and in the long run, that continued failure may depress his reputation as one of the greatest. On the other hand, Bonds was red-hot as the Giants overtook the Dodgers for the division title. I know that RBI have always been put on an unreasonable pedestal, but I just can’t stomach the extent to which Jeff Kent’s 121 RBI has been interpreted as “He’s the most valuable Giant, the one who has carried the team.” instead of “He’s the lucky stiff who got to bat behind Barry Bonds.” Batting behind someone with a .446 on base percentage has distinct advantages.”

Then I spent an even longer time arguing Piazza versus Walker. My son did some home-grown park corrections. In LA, Piazza hit .362 with 201 hits and 40 HR. His neutral park estimate was .378 with 213 hits and 45 HR; his Coors estimate was .426 with 249 hits and 61 HR. Now I think we did overdo the park correction; I think we didn’t account for the Dodgers playing their away games in not-Dodger-Stadium and the Rockies playing their away games in not-Coors. I said this: “Walker is a right fielder, a position at which offense is common, but he’s a rather good defensive right fielder. Piazza is a catcher, a position at which offense is rare, but he’s not a particularly good defensive catcher. He was, however, better in 1997 than he was in 1996. I think I’m being reasonably fair to both parties by calling the defense/position issue a wash between them, and I’ll grant both of them some bonus in comparing them to a ‘pure hitter’ like Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire, or Edgar Martinez.” Now, I sort of think those of you who are using current statistics are not going to call position/defense a wash. But we’ll see.

For the AL, I let my willingness to move people to different positions come out. So I like several shortstops better than any 3B? Some SS is going to move to 3B for me.

Batting order:
1. Chuck Knoblauch, 2B
2. Rusty Greer, LF
3. Ken Griffey, CF
4. Frank Thomas, 1B
5. Edgar Martinez, DH
6. David Justice, RF
7. Ivan Rodriguez, C
8. Nomar Garciaparra, SS
9. Alex Rodriguez, 3B

Pitching rotation:
1. Roger Clemens
2. Randy Johnson
3. Andy Pettitte
4. Justin Thompson
5. David Cone

Reserves:
Sandy Alomar, C
John Valentin, IF
Jim Thome, 1B
Mo Vaughn, 1B
Manny Ramirez, OF
Jim Edmonds, CF
Doug Jones, RP
Mariano Rivera, RP
Mike Mussina, P
Kevin Appier, P
Pat Hentgen, P

As I’ve noted elsewhere, compared to actual late-90’s rosters, that’s too many position players and not enough pitchers for the 25-man. And really - that’s way too many pinch-hitters (Thome, Vaughn, Ramirez); it would be hard to use all of them.

My Cy Young vote:
1. Roger Clemens
2. Randy Johnson
3. Andy Pettitte
4. Justin Thompson
5. Mike Mussina (so I flip/flopped Mussina and Cone between two votes).

My MVP vote:

1. Roger Clemens
2. Ken Griffey
3. Frank Thomas
4. Randy Johnson
5. Ivan Rodriguez
6. Nomar Garciaparra

Part of my quote about Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra:
“As such, I regard Rodriguez as having more offensive potential. On the other hand, Garciaparra is clearly the better defensive shortstop, and that should help him have a long and productive career, too. And don’t think I’m denigrating Garciaparra’s offense - he looks like a young George Brett, offensively. I’m not completely sure Rodiguez’s future is as a shortstop, as opposed to some other position, but he should have a great career somewhere. To be honest, I expect both of them to have Hall of Fame careers. And if it weren’t for those two, we might notice what a wonderful young player Derek Jeter is. There was a golden generation of shortstops rising in the early 80’s: Yount, Ozzie, Ripken, Trammell, Dickie Thon. We seem to have a new such generation rising now.”

I had a long piece comparing Ken Griffey’s stats, age for age so far, to Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and Frank Robinson. I’m not going to bother copying that here; it hasn’t stood up all that well. I was ignoring too many differences in context, for one thing. But I did comment on Griffey’s 294 career HR so far. Here was my closing:

“It would be a surprise and an upset if Griffey does not at least hit 500 career home runs.

I would give Griffey better than even odds to surpass Robinson’s 586 and move into 4th place on the list.

Griffey is a real threat to hit 700 career home runs.

Hank Aaron’s 755 is not entirely safe from Griffey.

Juan Gonzalez is the same age as Griffey, within a month. He now has 256 career home runs, and must also be considered a serious threat to hit a lot of career home runs. However, compared to Griffey, Gonzalez is slower, has less defensive value, and has a worse injury history, all of which leads me to project a shorter career for him that for Griffey. Gonzalez’s dramatically lower on base percentages give him substantially less overall offensive value than Griffey, and that also will limit the length of his career. For all of those negatives, I still say Gonzalez is about 50-50 to hit 500 career HR.” (Gonzalez finished with 434 HR; Griffey with 630.)

Now, was I thinking about Bonds when I was thinking of lots and lots of career HR? No, I was not thinking about Bonds.

1997 All Star team

NL

C Mike Piazza Outstanding offensive numbers, slightly below average defense Honourable mention: Jason Kendall
1B Jeff Bagwell Another Bagwellian type season. Honourable mention: John Olerud
2B Craig Biggio Solid offense, superior base running, career best defensive rating
3B Edgar Alfonso Solid offense Generally, down year for third baseman. Closest competition: Joe Randa (about 2 runs less than Alfonso)
SS Jeff Blauser
LF Barry Bonds
CF Ray Lankford
RF Larry Walker Best unadjusted offensive numbers. Obviously, Coors will effect these numbers, but unlike many Colorado players, Walker's numbers away from Coors are not that much lower. defensive numbers could have been better.
Best of the other OF: Raul Mondesi and Tony Gwynn
Comment: Bill Spiers had an all star type season, playing all 4 infield positions with very good defensive numbers.

SP
1. Pedro Martinez
2. Greg Maddux Supported with much better defense than Martinez
3. Tom Glavine
4. Kevin Brown
5. Curt Schilling and Darryl Kile essentially equal; but I would pick Schilling since his pitching numbers are better. (Kile's hitting is about average; Schilling's hitting is about a half a win below average)

RP
Jeff Shaw Trevor Hoffman was a close second and would certainly be a viable all star)

Now, was I thinking about Bonds when I was thinking of lots and lots of career HR? No, I was not thinking about Bonds.

Shame on you :-)
Seriously when Griffey had 294 (at age 27)
Bonds had 374 (at age 32), 21st all time through age 32

at age 32

Rocky Colavito 358 (374)
Albert Belle 358 (381)
Vlad Guerrero 365 (449)
Ralph Kiner 369 (369)
Barry Bonds 374 (762)
Lou Gehrig had 378 (493)
Jim Thome 381 (612)
Andruw Jones 388 (434)
Manny Ramirez 390 (555)
Harmon Killebrew 397 (573)
Juan Gone 405 (434)
Willie Mays 406 (660)
Adam Dunn 406 (462)

Seriously, the only guy in that clustering, at the time, you could use to base a "lots and lots of career HR" projection on would have been Mays, now you've got Thome and Manny (not counting Barry himself)

1997 All Star team

AL

C Ivan Rodriguez Solid offense, great defense. In a class by himself in the AL.
1B Frank Thomas A very competitive position, but Thomas had the best offensive numbers in the league and surprisingly was only slightly below average defensively. Thus out distancing Tino Martinez, Jeff King and Jim Thome to be the All Star.
2B John Valentin Played both 2B and 3B (more time at second), but was a win and a half better than the next best; roberto Alomar
3B Jeff Cirillo
SS Alex Rodriguez Best hitting SS with only slightly below average defensive numbers. Surprising thing was that it was not Garciaparra or Jeter as the runner up; but Jay Bell.
RF Tim Salmon
CF Ken Griffey
LF David Justice
Best of the other outfielders: Jim Edmonds
DH Edgar Martinez

SP
Roger Clemens
Randy Johnson
Andy Pettite
David Cone
Mike Mussina

RP
Mariano Rivera

Swing man: Tom Gordon has all star type numbers, split between being a starter and a high leverage reliever.

Barry Bonds 374 (762)

And that's through Barry's age-32 season, in which he turned 33 a little more than halfway through. He had 26 HR that season (of 40 total) by his 33rd birthday. So--

Barry Bonds up to his 33rd birthday: 360HR
Barry Bonds after his 33rd birthday: 402HR

Makes me curious as to what the half-career-total-HR age was for all the top players. Barry hit his 381st on May 4, 1998, so he was 33 yrs 9 months and 10 days. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that's probably the record oldest age for players with, oh, say, 300+ HR.

A little surprised by the early support for Jim Edmonds. He doesn't grade out well in any of the WAR calculators.

Preliminary Ballot

1. Roger Clemens 11.19 WARR
2. Craig Biggio 8.60 WARR
3. Pedro Martinez 8.37 WARR
4. Randy Johnson 8.18 WARR
5. Greg Maddux 8.03 WARR
6. Mike Piazza 7.65 WARR
7. Ken Griffey 7.54 WARR
8. Frank Thomas 7.42 WARR
9. Andy Pettite 7.34 WARR
10. Larry Walker 7.25 WARR
11. Tom Glavine 7.03 WARR
12. Jeff Bagwell 6.83 WARR
13. Jeff KIng 6.83 WARR Unbelievable (literally) defensive numbers
14. Barry Bonds 6.68 WARR

Rest of the top 20
Kevin Brown
David Cone
Ivan Rodriguez
Tim Salmon
Tino Martinez
John Olerud

Re #9

Jim Edmonds is not one of the 14 best players in the ML in 1997 (in my system he is the 12th best player in the AL), but baseball reference has him at 3.6 WAR and fangraphs has him at 4.0 WAR. These numbers are better than those for some of the players that are listed at the top of the page.

I'm assuming that in preparing posts #5 and #7, MrC. made full use of bb-ref and other resources readily available in 2016. By contrast, my posts #2 and #3 were based on the data available in USA Today (or maybe their baseball special) in 1997, along with some home-brew processing. The modern sources contain both significantly more information and significantly better processing (especially of defensive statistics) than I had. So rather than dwell on the points of disagreement, I'll just say that I'm impressed that there is as much agreement between the two sets of posts as there is.

Of course, some of that agreement might be that for quite a few positions, it really wasn't a close call.

1997 prelim. The year of the pitcher- four with ERA+ over 189 make
the prelim, along with Pettitte and his 8.4 WAR. Clemens, leader
in both ERA+ and IP, is #1 overall. Piazza leads the majors in OPS+ and
is the top position player on the ballot. Defense and catcher bonus
lift I. Rodriguez onto the ballot. Griffey, Thomas, Bonds, and Walker
slug their way onto the ballot. It's a tough era for sluggers in
non-defensive positions to shine: McGwire, Bagwell, and E. Martinez
had noteworthy seasons but couldn't make the ballot. As for Gwynn, I'm
favoring the WS assessment of his great late season. Excellent durability,
and good offense and defense make Biggio and Garciaparra the top middle
infielders.

1. Roger Clemens
2. Mike Piazza
3. Pedro Martinez
4. Ken Griffey Jr.
5. Greg Maddux
6. Frank Thomas
7. Randy Johnson
8. Barry Bonds
9. Craig Biggio
10. Tony Gwynn
11. Ivan Rodriguez
12. Larry Walker
13. Andy Pettite
14. Nomar Garciaparra

1997 Prelim

1. Mike Piazza, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Roger Clemens, P, Toronto Blue Jays: I might be the only one not voting Clemens first but Piazza's offensive dominance as a catcher was more impressive than Clemens' dominance from the mound
3. Larry Walker, RF, Colorado Rockies: 2nd to Piazza in OPS+, 1st in RC, with +10 fielding
4. Pedro Martinez, P, Montreal Expos: 241 innings to go with eye-popping 219 ERA+
5. Ken Griffey Jr., CF, Seattle Mariners: best position player in the AL
6. Craig Biggio, 2B, Houston Astros: another great all-around season
7. Barry Bonds, LF, San Francisco Giants: 3rd in NL in OPS+ and RC, with +10 fielding
8. Jeff Bagwell, 1B, Houston Astros
9. Frank Thomas, 1B/DH, Chicago White Sox: Bagwell edges Thomas based on better fielding (and no DH time)
10. Greg Maddux, P, Atlanta Braves: 189 ERA+ in 232 IP
11. Randy Johnson, P, Seattle Mariners: 197 ERA+ in 213 IP
12. Darryl Kile, P, Houston Astros: 255 IP leads the NL
13. Edgar Martinez, DH, Seattle Mariners
14. Mark McGwire, 1B, Oakland/St. Louis: nabs the last ballot spot thanks to a combined 170 OPS+ and 144 RC

15. Andy Pettitte, P, New York Yankees
16. Nomar Garciaparra, SS, Boston Red Sox: would have loved for a 16-deep ballot so that I could include Pettitte and Nomar
17. Curt Schilling, P, Philadelphia Phillies
18. Todd Hundley, C, New York Mets
19. Kevin Brown, P, Florida Marlins
20. John Smoltz, P, Atlanta Braves

1997 NLDS ATL 3 HOU 0

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Jeff Blauser  3  10  2  3  0  0  1  4  2  2  .300  .417  .600  1.017  0  0  0
Chipper Jones  3  8  3  4  0  0  1  2  3  2  .500  .583  .875  1.458  1  0  1

Jeff Bagwell  3  12  0  1  0  0  0  0  1  5  .083  .154  .083  .237  0  0  2
Craig Biggio  3  12  0  1  0  0  0  0  1  0  .083  .154  .083  .237  0  0  1
Bill Spiers  3  11  1  0  0  0  0  0  1  2  .000  .083  .000  .083  0  0  0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Tom Glavine  1  1  4.50  1  0  0  0  6.0  5  3  3  5  4  1.667  
Greg Maddux  1  1  1.00  1  0  0  1  9.0  7  1  1  1  6  0.889  
John Smoltz  1  1  1.00  1  0  0  1  9.0  3  1  1  1  11  0.444

Darryl Kile  1  1  2.57  0  1  0  0  7.0  2  2  2  2  4  0.571

Glavine did go 2 for 3 at the plate.

1997 NLDS FLA 3 SFG 0

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Charles Johnson  3  8  5  2  1  0  1  2  3  2  .250  .500  .750  1.250  0  0  0

Barry Bonds  3  12  0  3  2  0  0  2  0  3  .250  .231  .417  .647  1  0  0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Kevin Brown  1  1  1.29  0  0  0  0  7.0  4  1  1  0  5  0.571

Shawn Estes  1  1  15.00  0  0  0  0  3.0  5  5  5  4  3  3.000

1997 ALDS CLE 3 NYY 2

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
David Justice  5  19  3  5  2  0  1  2  2  3  .263  .333  .526  .860  0  0  
Manny Ramirez  5  21  2  3  1  0  0  3  0  3  .143  .143  .190  .333  0  0  1
Jim Thome  4  15  1  3  0  0  0  1  0  5  .200  .200  .200  .400  0  0  0

Tino Martinez  5  18  1  4  1  0  1  4  2  4  .222  .333  .444  .778  0  0  0
Paul O'Neill  5  19  5  8  2  0  2  7  3  0  .421  .500  .842  1.342  0  0  0
Bernie Williams  5  17  3  2  1  0  0  1  4  3  .118  .318  .176  .495  0  0  0  

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
David Cone  1  1  16.20  0  0  0  0  3.1  7  6  6  2  2  2.700  
Andy Pettitte  2  2  8.49  0  2  0  0  11.2  15  11  11  1  5  1.371  
Mariano Rivera  2  0  4.50  0  0  1  0  2.0  2  1  1  0  1  1.000  

1997 ALDS BAL 3 SEA 1

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Ken Griffey  4  15  0  2  0  0  0  2  1  3  .133  .188  .133  .321  2  0  0
Edgar Martinez  4  16  2  3  0  0  2  3  0  3  .188  .188  .563  .750  0  0  
Alex Rodriguez  4  16  1  5  1  0  1  1  0  5  .313  .313  .563  .875  0  0  0

Pitcher Name G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H R ER BB SO WHIP
Jimmy Key  1  1  3.86  0  1  0  0  4.2  8  2  2  0  4  1.714
Mike Mussina  2  2  1.93  2  0  0  0  14.0  7  3  3  3  16  0.714
Randy Myers  2  0  0.00  0  0  1  0  2.0  0  0  0  0  5  0.000

Jeff Fassero  1  1  1.13  1  0  0  0  8.0  3  1  1  4  3  0.875
Randy Johnson  2  2  5.54  0  2  0  1  13.0  14  8  8  6  16  1.538
Jamie Moyer  1  1  5.79  0  1  0  0  4.2  5  3  3  1  2  1.286

1997 NLCS FLA 4 ATL 2

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Charles Johnson  6  17  1  2  2  0  0  5  3  8  .118  .286  .235  .521  0  1  2

Jeff Blauser  6  20  5  6  0  0  1  1  3  6  .300  .417  .450  .867  0  0  1  
Chipper Jones  6  24  5  7  1  0  2  4  2  3  .292  .346  .583  .929  0  0  0

Pitcher Name G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H R ER BB SO WHIP
Kevin Brown  2  2  4.20  2  0  0  1  15.0  16  7  7  5  11  1.400

Tom Glavine  2  2  5.40  1  1  0  0  13.1  13  8  8  11  9  1.800
Greg Maddux  2  2  1.38  0  2  0  0  13.0  9  7  2  4  16  1.000  
Denny Neagle  2  1  0.00  1  0  0  1  12.0  5  0  0  1  9  0.500  
John Smoltz  1  1  7.50  0  1  0  0  6.0  5  5  5  5  9  1.667  

1997 ALCS CLE 4 BAL 2

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
David Justice  6  21  3  7  1  0  0  0  2  4  .333  .417  .381  .798  0  0  
Manny Ramirez  6  21  3  6  1  0  2  3  5  5  .286  .444  .619  1.063  0  0  1  
Jim Thome  6  14  3  1  0  0  0  0  5  4  .071  .316  .071  .387  0  0  0

Pitcher Name G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H R ER BB SO WHIP
Jimmy Key  2  1  2.57  0  0  0  0  7.0  5  2  2  3  7  1.143
Mike Mussina  2  2  0.60  0  0  0  0  15.0  4  1  1  4  25  0.533
Randy Myers  4  0  5.06  0  1  1  0  5.1  6  3  3  3  7  1.688

1997 World Series FLA 4 CLE 3

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Charles Johnson  7  28  4  10  0  0  1  3  1  6  .357  .379  .464  .844  0  0  0

David Justice  7  27  4  5  0  0  0  4  6  8  .185  .333  .185  .519  0  1  0
Manny Ramirez  7  26  3  4  0  0  2  6  6  5  .154  .294  .385  .679  0  0  1
Jim Thome  7  28  8  8  0  1  2  4  5  7  .286  .394  .571  .965  0  0  1

Pitcher Name G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H R ER BB SO WHIP
Kevin Brown  2  2  8.18  0  2  0  0  11.0  15  10  10  5  6  1.818

Makes me curious as to what the half-career-total-HR age was for all the top players. Barry hit his 381st on May 4, 1998, so he was 33 yrs 9 months and 10 days. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that's probably the record oldest age for players with, oh, say, 300+ HR.

Carlton Fisk and Edgar Martinez were older. I'd have to double-check exact dates but Ibanez, Palmeiro, Galarraga, Finley, Moises Alou, Darrell Evans could have been as well. Its a fun question.