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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Friday, November 04, 2016Most Meritorious Player: 1998 ResultsCongratulations to Mark McGwire, our 1998 Most Meritorious Player Player Name pts ballots 1sts Mark McGwire 170 12 8 Barry Bonds 139 12 1 Albert Belle 114 11 1 Greg Maddux 98 10 0 Kevin Brown 92 8 2 Roger Clemens 91 12 0 Alex Rodriguez 87 9 0 Sammy Sosa 84 10 0 John Olerud 84 11 0 Mike Piazza 77 9 0 Tom Glavine 50 7 0 Craig Biggio 35 6 0 Ivan Rodriguez 29 5 0 Andruw Jones 29 5 0 Pedro Martinez 27 6 0 Ken Griffey Jr 25 4 0 Greg Vaughn 23 4 0 Chipper Jones 20 4 0 N Garciaparra 19 3 0 Scott Rolen 19 4 0 Mo Vaughn 17 3 0 Barry Larkin 13 1 0 Al Leiter 13 2 0 Jeff Bagwell 10 2 0 Jason Kendall 10 2 0 Derek Jeter 9 2 0 Randy Johnson 9 2 0 Kenny Rogers 8 2 0 Gary Sheffield 7 1 0 Scott Brosius 6 2 0 Edgar Martinez 5 1 0 Moises Alou 5 2 0 A Galarraga 4 1 0 Jamie Moyer 3 1 0 V Guerrero 3 1 0 Bernie Williams 3 1 0 Trevor Hoffman 2 1 0 Rafael Palmeiro 1 1 0 |
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1. DL from MN Posted: November 04, 2016 at 10:35 AM (#5345789)Bonds 11
Clemens 11
Maddux 7
Larkin 7
McGwire 7
Piazza 6
Griffey Jr 6
Glavine 5
Belle 5
R Johnson 5
E Martinez 5
Biggio 4
Bagwell 4
Ivan Rodriguez 3
Kevin Brown 3
Mo Vaughn 3
Sheffield 3
Palmeiro 3
16 - Aaron, Mays
13 - Schmidt
12 - Henderson
11 - Mathews, F Robinson, Wagner, Mantle, Bonds, Clemens
9 - Mathewson, Carter, Lajoie, Seaver, Berra
The expansion to 15 players per ballot has a lot to do with that.
Brown is in the same position as Roger Clemens, who just made my list. His WAR score is very high - 6th (Clemens is first - ahead of McGwire). But Win Shares has Brown at 35th, which is actually just one spot lower than Clemens. The difference of five slots in WAR made the difference between down ballot and off ballot. My guess would be that the other people who left Brown off their ballots had a Win Shares component in their analysis. I've been talking about the disconnect between the two systems regarding pitchers, probably to the point where everyone is sick and tired of it, but to me, this is one of the most interesting aspects of this project. Doing the rankings the way I do allows me to, en passant, compare the two systems. It is staggeringly clear that Win Shares likes starting pitchers much less than WAR, and pitcher placement on Win Share lists has been lower than position player placement for decades, and that the issue is getting worse, not better. Just to check, I found the Win Shares list for 2016, right where you told me it was, and copied it. In 2016, Win Shares does not have a single pitcher in the top FIFTY players. The highest pitcher placement is Max Scherzer, who is something like 52nd. Like I said, it's getting worse. Pitchers are pitching fewer and fewer innings, and those innings have had less and less leverage. This is overpowering the gain in FIP (three true outcome analysis).
The other thing I saw was that, rushing to complete the ballot as I was, I made a misread. I have Al Leiter 11th. He should not be on my ballot at all. When I was adding the Win Shares and WAR scores together, I misread Leiter's 48th place in Win Shares as 4th, a huge difference. WAR only has him ranked in a three-way tie for 23rd with Greg Vaughn and Curt Schilling. He is, in reality, nowhere near my ballot. My #11-#15 should read Andruw Jones, Greg Vaughn (8th in Win Shares), Roger Clemens (who would go into a tie on the results list with Kevin Brown, fittingly enough), Ivan Rodriguez, and Ken Grifffey, Jr. There are a lot of ties at this point in my list. IRod and Griffey are tied with Jeff Bagwell, while Kevin Brown is in another tie, just below those three, with Greg Maddux, for my #17 ballot slot, which is just off ballot.
In short, I need to do these ballots earlier. This month, I had the excuse of a two-week case of the flu. But, still. I'm doing these ballots using lists that I get a month before the ballot is due. I should just spend an evening early in the month, get the ballot done, and post it in the Discussion thread. That's going to happen this month. I'm embarrassed. - Brock
Right. I meant that Brown was left off of two more ballots than Maddux. Maddux was left off two, Brown four.
Regarding Win Shares, I think how it treats starting pitching is just wrong. It treats the 9th inning as more valuable than the first inning which gives relievers too much credit and starters too little. If you use ordinals for starting pitching for the two different systems and then combine them back into your ballot with the position players I think you'll be more satisfied with the result.
Also on your 1/3 and 1/6 split - strikeouts alone were 19096 outs in 21611 innings (American League). That's 29.5% of the outs that the defense (other than the catcher) had NOTHING to do with. That would mean pitchers are only 4% responsible for the rest of the outs.
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