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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Thursday, December 08, 2016Most Meritorious Player: 1999 DiscussionThe Yankees swept the Braves in the World Series. Player Name SH WS BBR WAR Derek Jeter 33.7 8.0 Manny Ramirez 33.1 7.3 Roberto Alomar 33.2 7.4 Robin Ventura 28.3 6.7 Ivan Rodriguez 28.6 6.4 Jeff Bagwell 33.3 7.4 Nomar Garciaparra 31.4 6.6 Edgardo Alfonzo 29.1 6.0 Randy Velarde 24.2 7.0 Carl Everett 23.2 5.8 Brian Giles 26.6 6.6 Chipper Jones 33.6 6.9 Shawn Green 26.6 6.4 Barry Larkin 23.6 5.1 Bobby Abreu 26.6 6.1 Omar Vizquel 22.5 6.0 Jason Giambi 29.6 5.9 Andruw Jones 28.3 7.1 Luis Gonzalez 26.7 6.4 Alex Rodriguez 24.4 4.7 Brady Anderson 23.1 5.9 Mike Piazza 21.7 4.3 Bernie Williams 32.5 5.4 Sammy Sosa 27.5 4.8 Jeff Cirillo 24.2 4.8 Craig Biggio 29.3 5.1 Mike Lieberthal 21.4 3.4 Ken Griffey Jr 29.0 4.9 Jay Bell 23.0 4.9 Mark McGwire 29.1 5.2 Scott Rolen 17.3 4.6 BJ Surhoff 19.2 5.1 Jason Kendall 15.9 4.1 Kevin Young 20.2 5.6 Juan Gonzalez 24.4 3.9 Rafael Palmeiro 28.9 5.2 Larry Walker 23.2 5.1 John Olerud 25.2 5.6 Vladimir Guerrero 25.1 4.4 Jim Thome 24.8 4.5 Mark Grudzielanek 15.1 3.6 Johnny Damon 17.5 5.4 Kenny Lofton 20.4 5.6 Mike Bordick 17.5 4.7 Magglio Ordonez 18.4 5.8 Edgar Martinez 25.3 4.9 Jermaine Dye 17.3 4.7 Pitcher Pedro Martinez 27.0 9.7 Randy Johnson 26.9 8.8 Mike Hampton 25.6 7.8 Kevin Millwood 23.2 6.0 John Smoltz 17.4 5.3 Brad Radke 17.3 6.5 Kevin Brown 19.6 5.5 Jamie Moyer 16.0 6.7 Freddy Garcia 14.3 5.5 Omar Daal 16.5 5.2 Pedro Astacio 17.4 6.0 Jose Lima 19.6 3.8 Curt Schilling 14.8 4.8 David Cone 15.2 5.1 Shane Reynolds 15.8 3.5 Bartolo Colon 15.8 5.1 Mike Mussina 16.6 4.5 Mike Sirotka 13.7 4.4 Greg Maddux 17.4 3.7 Darren Oliver 12.4 4.0 John Halama 11.4 4.8 Jose Rosado 13.8 4.0 Bret Saberhagen 11.9 3.7 Orlando Hernandez 14.6 4.4 Keith Foulke 16.8 4.4 Billy Wagner 20.0 3.8 Derek Lowe 18.7 3.5 Mariano Rivera 17.9 3.5 Armando Benitez 17.1 3.3 John Rocker 15.5 2.1 Jeff Zimmerman 14.6 3.9
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1. DL from MN Posted: December 08, 2016 at 01:49 PM (#5365056)1) Pedro Martinez - very good season but doesn't compare to 1997 Clemens
2) Derek Jeter - no postseason bonuses yet, -0.8 FWAA
3) Randy Johnson
4) Mike Hampton - lots of great offensive performances may be the reason pitchers are sorting to the top
5) Manny Ramirez
6) Roberto Alomar
7) Robin Ventura - 2.7 FWAA, outstanding glove season
8) Kevin Millwood
9) Ivan Rodriguez - Rates 1.5 FWAA, would need an additional fielding win to top the position players, which is plausible
10) Jeff Bagwell - best bat
11) Nomar Garciaparra - negative 1.0 FWAA
12) Edgardo Alfonzo
13) Randy Velarde
14) Carl Everett
15) Brian Giles
16-20) Chipper Jones, Shawn Green, Barry Larkin, Bobby Abreu, Omar Vizquel, Jason Giambi
21-25) John Smoltz, Andruw Jones, Luis Gonzalez, Brad Radke, Alex Rodriguez
Standard deviation adjustment is 0.98 for the AL and 0.9 for the NL this year.
AL:
C: Ivan Rodriguez
1B: Rafael Palmero
2B: Roberto Alomar
3B: Derek Jeter (out of position)
SS: Nomar Garciaparra
LF: Bernie Williams (out of position)
CF: Ken Griffey, Jr.
RF: Shawn Green
DH: Manny Ramirez (out of position)
SP1: Pedro Martinez
SP2: Brad Radke
SP3: Mike Mussina
SP4: Jamie Moyer
SP5: Bartolo Colon
Closer: Mariano Rivera
Reserve C: Jason Varitek
Reserve IF: Alex Rodriguez
Reserve IF: Randy Velarde
Reserve OF: Albert Belle
Reserve bat: Jason Giambi
Reserve bat: Edgar Martinez
Reserve P: Bret Saberhagen
Reserve P: David Cone
Reserve P: Keith Foulke
Reserve P: Derek Lowe
NL:
C: Mike Piazza
1B: Jeff Bagwell
2B: Edgardo Alfonso
3B: Chipper Jones
SS: Barry Larkin
LF: Vladimir Guerrero (out of position)
CF: Brian Giles
RF: Sammy Sosa
DH: Mark McGwire (out of position)
SP1: Randy Johnson
SP2: Kevin Millwood
SP3: Mike Hampton
SP4: Kevin Brown
SP5: John Smoltz
Closer: Billy Wagner
Reserve C: Mike Lieberthal
Reserve IF: Robin Ventura
Reserve IF: Rich Aurelia
Reserve OF: Andruw Jones
Reserve bat: Luis Gonzalez
Reserve bat: Bobby Abreu
Reserve P: Curt Schilling
Reserve P: Jose Lima
Reserve P: Armando Benitez
Reserve P: Pedro Astacio
I have a note that says the following; I can’t find any more detailed listing, so I don’t have rankings.
AL MVP: Derek Jeter
NL MVP: Chipper Jones
AL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez
NL Cy Young: Randy Johnson
Actually, I do have more detailed rankings for the CYA, but not the MVP:
In the NL, my Cy Young vote would be: 1. Randy Johnson. 2. Kevin Millwood. 3. Mike Hampton. 4. Kevin Brown. 5. Billy Wagner.
In the AL, my Cy Young vote would be: 1. Martinez. 2. Radke. 3. Rivera. 4. Foulke. 5. Mussina.
I also had a note that if you made me pick an AL 3B, I’d go with Joe Randa.
1. Craig Biggio, 3B (out of position)
2. Roberto Alomar, 2B
3. Barry Bonds, RF (out of position)
4. Frank Thomas, DH
5. Mark McGwire, 1B
6. Ken Griffey, Jr., CF
7. Mike Piazza, C
8. Albert Belle, LF
9. Barry Larkin, SS
Greg Maddux, SP
Roger Clemens, SP
Randy Johnson, SP
Pedro Martinez, SP
Tom Glavine, SP
John Wetteland, Closer
Reserves:
Ivan Rodriguez, C
Jeff Bagwell, 1B
Cal Ripken, Jr., IF
Rickey Henderson, OF/PH/PR
Tony Gwynn, OF/PH
Edgar Martinez, DH/PH
David Cone, P
Kevin Brown, P
John Smoltz, P
Trevor Hoffman, RP
Then I have a note that says that the MVP of the decade is Barry Bonds and the Pitcher of the Decade is Greg Maddux. I don’t seem to have any more rankings than that.
A quote:
Of course, I was not anticipating that several of these players would be steroid-blackballed.
It wouldn't have been crazy to think this: he's been great for a long time, one of the greatest - but now it's all winding down. It wouldn't have been crazy, but ...
C Mike Piazza Not the same dominance as previous year, but still solid enough offense to be all star. jason Kendall had best rate stats, but played only 1/2 season.
1B Mark McGwire and Jeff Bagwell had essentially the same offensive numbers, but McGwire's better defensive numbers, give him the edge as all star.
2B jay Bell's offensive advantage over Edgardo Alfonso was big enough to overcome his defensive shortcomings.
3B Chipper Jones was by far the best offensive 3B, but his -25 defensive runs made the competition between Jones and Ventura closer than I would have thought.
SS Barry Larkin No one else even in the conversation.
The outfielder's, when not switching outfield positions,
LF Larry Walker Best hitting numbers in most competitive position In NL. Bobby Abreu, Sammy Sosa and Vladimir Guerrero all may be worthy of an all star position,
CF Brian Giles best position player in the NL. carl Everett runnerup
RF Luis Gonzalez Solid season, but only the 8th best season for an outfielder.
I would use Abreu out of position as the RF.
SP Randy Johnson A dominant season in a high offense environment,
SP Mike Hampton Superior hitting numbers Bring him closer to Johnson than one would expect
SP Kevin Millwood
SP Kevin Brown
SP John Smoltz despite being a little light on innings, still rates as all star. Another pitcher whose hitting helps improve his rating.
RP Armando Benitez
RP Mike Remlinger
Closer Billy Wagner
AL all stars in a few days,
Numbers with the pitchers are RA+ equivalent record with a big years bonus in brackets. New starting pitchers? Carpenter had three genuinely big years and a few other good years, but he’s too far short on career value to be worth considering all that seriously.
The toy system I’m playing with (basically WAR with some big year bonuses) winds up putting Manny Ramirez very close to Sosa and Vlad Guerrero very close to Bobby Bonds, with Sheffield in between the two clusters - but Sheffield is elected.. But I may be making too much of Sosa’s 2001 season - that is, I may be overdoing the big year bonus. And the system likes Lofton better than any of the corner outfielders, and I’m a little skeptical of that.
Posada didn’t look all that close.
1. Ivan Rodriguez I see him as a prime candidate - a lot years of 6-7 WAR strung together back to back. That puts him pretty far up on the list of catchers.
2. Manny Ramirez A hitter.
3. Jim Edmonds I'm also not sure of the right order between Edmonds and Sosa - I see them as very close.
4. Sammy Sosa A peak candidate. Was a wild swinger in the early part of his career, and he declined quickly once his peak was over. But that peak is enough to get him here.
5. Kenny Lofton OK, I've got a system for aggregating WAR with peak bonuses, and it likes Lofton better than it likes Edmonds. So what's going on? A significant part of it is that Lofton's peak lands right on the 1994-1995 strike seasons, and the system is projecting full seasons for Lofton for those - in particular a monster 1994 for him. Do I really think he should be ahead of Edmonds? Umm, no. So some hand adjustments have been made.
6. Luis Tiant 224-164 [35] Was #1 on my 2012 ballot.
7. Vic Willis 248-196 [44]
8. Frank Chance Betraying my career voter leanings. Didn't play much, but awfully good when he did play, and the best 1B of his own time. My new system gives him as much value above average as Palmiero.
9. Sal Bando
10. Buddy Bell
11. John Olerud
12. Bobby Bonds
13. Fred McGriff
14. Dale Murphy
15. Bob Elliott Resurfacing a favorite of my old system.
Others close to the ballot.
C: Gene Tenace
1B: Fred McGriff, Norm Cash, Orlando Cepeda (Note: for many previous years, I have not particularly seen the case for Ben Taylor. And the best 1B of the teens is still probably Sisler.)
2B: Jeff Kent, Larry Doyle
3B: Robin Ventura
SS: Phil Rizzuto
Corner OF: Rusty Staub, Jack Clark, Frank Howard, Ken Singleton.
CF: Cesar Cedeno, Hugh Duffy, George Van Haltren, Jimmy Ryan. I've supported the 1890's guys (particularly Van Haltren) for a long time, but I'm not all that sure any more that I'd take any of them over Cedeno and Murphy.
P: Lefty Gomez, Bucky Walters, Kevin Appier, Lon Warnecki, Jerry Koosman, Tommy Bridges, Ed Cicotte, Wilbur Cooper, Tommy John, Urban Shocker.
He hit 34 home runs, at least a 50 homer pace.
Similar ISO to his 1993 season.
Not much decline.
Luis Gonzalez, Bobby Abreu, Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Mussina, Sammy Sosa, Edgardo Alfonzo, Mike Hampton?
Tier 0 (G.O.A.T.)
1. Pedro Martinez - 313 K's and 37 BB; 1.39 FIP; best season of all-time
Tier 1
2. Derek Jeter - post-season bonus bumps him above Manny and Bagwell for top position player
3. Randy Johnson - 364 K's in 271 excellent innings; 12 CGs and 2 SHO
4. Jeff Bagwell - most offensive runs in MLB; 30 steals, too
5. Manny Ramirez - highest wRC+ in MLB
6. Chipper Jones - monster offense from 3B (65.3 offensive runs second-best all-time behind 1953 Al Rosen); solid base-running
Tier 2
7. Roberto Alomar - a top 50 all-time 2B season; .323/.422/.533 line pretty impressive
8. Brian Giles - overlooked gem; in top 10 for most offensive categories; played mostly CF
9. Nomar Garciaparra - 7th best slugging percentage ever for a SS
Tier 3
10. Mark McGwire - 65 HR and massive offense but horrible D brings him down
11. Robin Ventura - solid offense and HOF-level defense at 3B
12. Andruw Jones - another one of the best CF seasons of all time; offense just OK for a juiced ball era season
13. Larry Walker - somewhat one-dimensional in 1999; also knocked down a few pegs by Coors and injuries
C Ivan Rodriguez Solid offense, +20 Defense. No one really close. Runner up Brad Ausmus
1B Jim Thome Jason Giambi had a slightly better offensive year, but Thome was an average fielder whereas Giambi was a -14.
2B Robbie Alomar Outstanding offense and a +8 defense. Randy Velarde had a surprisingly good year to end up as runner up at 2B
3B Tony Fernandez Best of a rather pedestrian group. twenty-two year old Troy Glaus was runner up
SS Nomar Garciaparra Derek Jeter was 10 runs better offensively than Garciaparra, but his -20 defense rating left in second player.
RF Manny Ramirez Best offense in the AL and was still a +6 on defense.
CF Bernie Williams
LF Rusty Greer Very good offense, slightly below average on defense.
DH Raael Palmeiro Second best offense in the AL
Two Right fielders: Shawn Green (better offense) and Jermaine Dye (great defense) were both better as corner outfielders than Greer. My preference would be to use Shawn Green as the all star LF.
SP Pedro Martinez Amazing. In a league where the run environment was 5.3 runs/9, his RAA was 2,35.
SP Jamie Moyer
SP Brad Radke
SP Freddie Garcia
SP Bartolo Colon
relievers
Keith Foulke
Jeff Zimmerman
Derek Lowe
1. Pedro Martinez 9.55 WARR An amazing season; especially considering the run scoring environment of the tome.
2. Randy Johnson 8.70 WARR
3. Mike Hampton 8.66 WARR rates several spots higher because of hitting ability
4. Manny Ramirez 8.29 WARR
5. Robbie Alomar 7.82 WARR
6. Brian Giles 6.49 WARR
7. Bernie Williams 6.45 WARR
8. Mark McGwire 6.36 WARR
9. Jeff Bagwell 6.24 WARR
10. Kevin Millwood 6.24 WARR
11. Rafael Palmiero 6.18 WARR
12. Nomar Garciaparra 6.16 WARR
13. jamie Moyer 6.03 WARR
14. Chipper Jones 5.95 WARR
15. Derek Jeter 5.90 WARR
Rest of the top 20
16. Shawn Green
17. Larry Walker
18. Kevin Brown
19. Randy Velarde
20. Ivan Roriguez
I did a very rough translation of Hudson's minor league numbers and he came out just below the top 20. If I can find a good explanation of how to do MLEs for pitchers, I will try it again for the final ballot.
1. Pedro Martinez, P, Boston Red Sox: one of the greatest seasons of all-time- 243 ERA+ plus top ten in IP
2. Randy Johnson, P, Arizona Diamondbacks: 184 ERA+ to go with MLB leading 271 IP
3. Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves: the year's best position player with a 169 OPS+ and 165 Runs Created
4. Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees: best position player in the AL; 4th in AL in OPS+ as a SS
5. Manny Ramirez, RF, Cleveland Indians: 174 OPS+ and 158 RC lead the AL
6. Jeff Bagwell, 1B, Houston Astros
7. Mark McGwire, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: poor defense and (-9 fielding) and baserunning (-4) drops Big Mac below Bagwell
8. Nomar Garciaparra, SS, Boston Red Sox: 5th in AL in OPS+ but only 135 games played separates him from Jeter above
9. Roberto Alomar, 2B, Cleveland Indians: great all-around play; just outside the top ten in OPS+ (140) while adding +5 baserunning and +8 defense from the keystone
10. Rafael Palmeiro, DH, Texas Rangers: 2nd in AL OPS+ (160) and 3rd in RC (152)
11. Kevin Millwood, P, Atlanta Braves: the fourth man in the Braves rotation has the best season
12. Larry Walker, RF, Colorado Rockies
13. Brian Giles, RF, Pittsburgh Pirates: Walker and Giles are essentially tied
14. Mike Hampton, P, Houston Astros: great combo of rate (155 ERA+) and bulk (239 IP)
15. Ivan Rodriguez, C, Texas Rangers: the writers' MVP sneaks onto the bottom of my ballot
16. Robin Ventura, 3B, New York Mets
17. Kevin Brown, P, Los Angeles Dodgers
18. Bobby Abreu, RF, Philadelphia Phillies
19. Luis Gonzalez, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks
20. Edgardo Alfonzo, 2B, New York Mets
21. Jason Giambi, 1B, Oakland Athletics
22. Sammy Sosa, RF, Chicago Cubs
23. Shawn Green, RF, Toronto Blue Jays
24. Edgar Martinez, DH, Seattle Mariners
25. Bernie Williams, CF, New York Yankees
Edit: Forgot to look at NL relievers. Billy Wagner is my top reliever (287 ERA+ in 74 IP) and although that's not good enough for this year's ballot, he would slot in at 24th just ahead of Edgar Martinez.
While I'm happy to acknowledge that it was a great season, I'm quite a bit more skeptical of making G.O.A.T. claims for it.
The issue starts with IP. Martinez, like all pitchers of his time, pitched many fewer innings in a season than did the top pitchers of the 60's and 70's. That happened because by the 1990's, starting pitchers very seldom pitched complete games; they were usually lifted after about the 7th in favor of defined-role relief specialists. Of course you can argue that that was a condition of the times and he should be compared to his contemporaries. But I have also noticed that the statistics of starting pitchers started to decentralize sharply just as their workloads decreased.
One way to see this is to look for starting pitchers with extreme ERA+, say > 190. How common are those? The established tendency has (somewhat counterintuitively) been that they are more common in low-offense eras. You'll find a lot of super ERA+ in the deadball era, some of them by pitchers whose names you may not immediately recognize. But in the high-scoring late 20's and 30's, they're quite rare (except for Lefty Grove). But they pick up again in the "little deadball" 60's. That had been the pattern - but such super seasonal ERA+ then got a lot more common in the high-offense 90's. And that has to have a different cause - and the different cause is the reduced workload. That made it easier to record an extreme ERA+, or any other rate statistic you care to name.
One other thing specific to Martinez's 1999: yes, he lapped the field of other AL pitchers by a ludicrous margin in many measurements. But examining the years around it tends to lead one to the idea that the rest of the league's top pitchers were having a collective bad year. Certainly I can't see voting for any other AL starting pitcher on the MMP ballot. It's a little like Babe Ruth lapping the field in 1920-1921; partly that's about the greatness of Ruth, but it's also partly about what the rest of the league wasn't doing yet.
Because I continue to take IP into account, I happen to think that it is essentially impossible for any pitcher under current usage to measure up to Gooden '85 or Gibson '68. Is that unfair? If you try to assign G.O.A.T. value to Martinez 1999 and then scale that to what it would mean for a typical 2nd or 3rd starter, you would arrive at giving more value to all pitchers than was true 20 or 30 years earlier.
I don't yet know how I'm going to splice my own 1999 memo together into an MMP ballot - but I will note that in 1999, I called Jeter (and not Martinez) the AL MVP.
Since placing Chipper accurately will be of considerable importance in this election, what do people think?
Was Chipper really an awful defensive 3B? Or were his low RF and other poor defensive measures more the result of some statistical illusion? Maybe Glavine and other Brave pitchers spent so much time pitching away that they changed the distribution of GB? I'd like to hear the various defensive experts around here weigh in on this.
(Side note to MrC., about the post I'm quoting: did you perhaps reverse LF and RF?)
Yes, on the NL All Star team, it seems, I reversed LF and RF on my post.
I agree with OCF that defensive numbers can have a major effect on a person's rating (Chipper Jones and Derek Jeter both are an example of this with my ballot for 1999). But I am certainly not a defensive expert; I only use what others have done to help with my thinking.
Like OCF, I encourage those experts to give their thoughts on Larry Wayne Jone's fielding abilities.
FWIW, in the middle of Jones' career, he was moved to LF for two seasons while the Braves played Vinny Castilla at third. Castilla's rField the year before going to ATL was +6 as was the year after he left. The two years in Atlanta, he was +2.
1. Pedro Martinez--amazing season, one of the best ever for a pitcher. It's hard to believe he never won an actual MVP
2. Jeter--also hard to believe he never won an MVP
3. Pudge Rodriguez--catcher bonus
4. Chipper Jones--edges out Bagwell
5. Bagwell
6. Roberto Alomar
7. Manny Ramirez--RBIs! It's kinda surprising no one came close to challenging Hack Wilson's RBI record or Earl Webb's doubles record during the Steroid Era
8. Randy Johnson--I was a big fan of Mike Hampton in '99 but myself & the CY voters correctly valued Unit's ERA, SOs, & IP over Hamptons excellent 22-4 record
9. Garciaparra--too bad he didn't maintain this HOF level play
10.Ventura--slick glove
11.Hampton
12.McGwire--hard to believe Big Mac hits 60+ bombs & barely makes the top 15, the game was chock full of 40 HR/400 OBP guys. Sosa was a near miss but his OBP wasn't anything special & his fielding was subpar
13.Larry Walker--easy top 5 if not for injuries
14.Giles
15.Giambi
Honorable mention--Randy Velarde-this was his best season-when the Mitchell Report came out, the name that I was most disappointed to see was Velarde's
1. Pedro Martinez - The peak season from one of the all-time great peak pitchers. Eye-popping.
2. Randy Johnson - Not quite as amazing as Martinez, but part of a really dominant run by Johnson.
3. Derek Jeter - Probably his best season. Best position player in MLB.
4. Mike Hampton - Best season by a mortal pitcher?
5. Roberto Alomar - Best 2B
6. Nomar Garciaparra
7. Jeff Bagwell
8. Chipper Jones - Best 3B
9. Manny Ramirez
10. Randy Velarde
11. Edgardo Alfonzo - Two career seasons by two good but not great 2B.
12. Andruw Jones
13. Jamie Moyer - It's always fun to see Moyer on a ballot.
14. Kevin Millwood - The Braves really did have some amazing pitching in the 90s.
15. Robin Ventura
Honorable mention: Luis Gonzalez, Ivan Rodriguez (best C), Brian Giles.
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