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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Friday, January 06, 2017Most Meritorious Player: 2000 DiscussionThe Yankees beat the Mets in a Subway Series. Teams hit a record 5,693 home runs. Player SH WS BBR WAR Alex Rodriguez 38.0 10.4 Barry Bonds 34.1 7.7 Jason Giambi 36.6 7.7 Darin Erstad 29.5 8.3 Brian Giles 27.5 6.4 Jeff Kent 36.9 7.2 Troy Glaus 26.9 7.8 Carlos Delgado 35.6 7.3 Todd Helton 29.9 8.8 Jorge Posada 28.5 5.5 Gary Sheffield 30.6 6.1 Jim Edmonds 29.8 6.3 Nomar Garciaparra 29.4 7.4 Mike Piazza 28.9 5.1 Richard Hidalgo 24.3 6.3 Bobby Higginson 24.2 5.3 Sammy Sosa 29.1 5.7 Edgardo Alfonzo 32.1 6.4 Vladimir Guerrero 28.9 5.9 Jason Kendall 23.6 4.5 Charles Johnson 22.0 5.1 Jermaine Dye 24.6 4.6 Chipper Jones 28.4 5.6 Andruw Jones 31.6 8.2 Manny Ramirez 25.3 4.8 Ivan Rodriguez 19.6 4.8 Geoff Jenkins 21.8 4.4 Johnny Damon 25.6 6.1 Scott Rolen 19.5 4.5 Derek Jeter 24.3 4.6 Bobby Abreu 24.9 6.2 Ken Griffey Jr 23.9 5.5 Ellis Burks 22.2 5.0 Jeff Bagwell 25.1 5.4 Edgar Martinez 28.2 5.7 Frank Thomas 31.9 6.0 Carl Everett 22.9 4.7 Phil Nevin 23.3 4.1 Travis Fryman 21.8 4.7 Mark McGwire 19.2 4.2 Luis Castillo 20.3 4.5 Jose Valentin 23.1 4.9 Jim Thome 21.1 4.7 Miguel Tejada 22.9 4.2 Roberto Alomar 21.2 5.6 Luis Gonzalez 25.2 4.2 Tim Salmon 22.8 4.4 Kenny Lofton 16.1 3.4 Bernie Williams 25.5 5.2 David Justice 21.3 5.1 Shannon Stewart 19.6 5.0 Pitcher Pedro Martinez 29.2 11.7 Randy Johnson 26.3 8.1 Greg Maddux 24.4 6.7 Kevin Brown 20.2 6.8 Mike Mussina 18.0 5.6 Mike Hampton 18.2 5.3 Tom Glavine 21.6 5.1 Jeff D'Amico 15.5 4.8 Chan Ho Park 17.3 5.6 Curt Schilling 16.1 5.2 David Wells 18.0 4.8 Javier Vazquez 14.1 5.2 Bartolo Colon 15.0 4.8 Robert Person 13.8 3.8 Al Leiter 17.5 4.3 Frank Castillo 12.3 3.9 Brad Radke 14.3 6.2 Chuck Finley 15.6 4.5 Kris Benson 14.3 4.9 Kenny Rogers 15.3 5.1 Brian Anderson 15.3 4.1 Roger Clemens 15.4 4.5 Woody Williams 11.1 3.6 Tim Hudson 15.0 4.0 Rick Helling 15.1 4.2 Mariano Rivera 16.2 2.6 Gabe White 14.3 4.5 Derek Lowe 18.8 3.5 Danny Graves 16.6 3.1 Keith Foulke 15.8 3.1 LaTroy Hawkins 11.3 3.0
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1. DL from MN Posted: January 06, 2017 at 02:28 PM (#5378913)Two candidates really stand out this year
1) Pedro Martinez - tops the ballot again. Best pitching season since Maddux 1995.
Best pitching seasons in the history of the MMP project by my point score
1985 Gooden 21.5
1995 Maddux 21.4
1971 Carlton 21.2
1994 Maddux 20.6
1997 Clemens 19.9
1968 Gibson 19.5
2000 P Martinez 19.5
1902 Waddell 19.1
1963 Koufax 18.7
1972 Seaver 18.3
1971 Seaver 18.0
1999 P Martinez 18.0
1971 Wood 17.9
2015 Greinke 17.9
1901 Young 17.8
1978 Guidry 17.7
1972 Perry 17.7
1995 Johnson 17.7
1980 Carlton 17.5
1953 Roberts 17.5
1966 Marichal 17.2
1966 Koufax 17.1
1993 Rijo 17.0
2) Alex Rodriguez - good fielding season, strong all-around production
3) Barry Bonds - 2nd best bat and good glove
4) Jason Giambi - best bat
5) Randy Johnson
6) Darin Erstad - 2.6 FWAA in LF
7) Brian Giles - best CF
8) Greg Maddux
9) Jeff Kent
10) Troy Glaus - good glove season for Troy
11) Kevin Brown
12) Carlos Delgado
13) Todd Helton
14) Jorge Posada - best C
15) Gary Sheffield
16-20) Jim Edmonds, Nomar Garciaparra, Mike Piazza, Richard Hidalgo, Bobby Higginson
21-25) Sammy Sosa, Edgardo Alfonzo, Vladimir Guerrero, Jason Kendall, Charles Johnson
My post-season all-star teams, with all the usual foibles: 25 man rosters, but too many position players and not enough pitchers. Position changes when I felt like it. Starting lineup organized into a batting order (check out my NL leadoff hitter this year.)
For the National League:
1. Todd Helton, 1B
2. Jim Edmonds, CF
3. Barry Bonds, LF
4. Gary Sheffield, DH
5. Jeff Kent, 2B
6. Mike Piazza, C
7. Sammy Sosa, RF
8. Edgardo Alfonso, 3B
9. Edgar Renteria, SS
Starter: Randy Johnson
Starter: Kevin Brown
Starter: Greg Maddux
Starter: Tom Glassine
Starter: Mike Hampton
Reserves
Jason Kendall, C
Chipper Jones, IF
Barry Larkin, SS
Brian Giles, CF
Vlad Guerrero, OF
Mark McGwire, PH/1B
Robb Nen, closer
Armando Benitez, RP
Al Leiter, P
Chan Ho Park, P
Jeff D’Amico, P
1. Nomar Garciaparra, 2B (!)
2. Alex Rodriguez, SS
3. Carlos Delgado, DH
4. Jason Giambi, 1B
5. Manny Ramirez, RF
6. Troy Glaus, 3B
7. Darin Erstad, LF
8. Jorge Posada, C
9. Bernie Williams, CF (in hindsight, why didn’t I put Erstad in CF?)
Starter: Pedro Martinez
Starter: Mike Mussina
Starter: Chuck Finley
Starter: David Wells
Starter: Bartolo Colon
Reserves
Ivan Rodriguez, C
Roberto Alomar, IF
Derek Jeter, IF
Frank Thomas, DH/PH
Edgar Martinez, DH/PH
Carl Everett, OF
Derek Lowe, RP
Mariano Rivera, RP
Roger Clemens, P
Brad Radke, P
Keith Foulke, P
1. Randy Johnson
2. Kevin Brown
3. Greg Maddux
4. Tom Glavine
5. Mike Hampton
AL Cy Young:
1. Pedro Martinez
2. Mike Mussina
3. Chuck Finley
4. David Wells
5. Derek Lowe
“Any writer who votes for Wells or anyone else over Martinez for Cy Young should have his BBWAA membership card immediately shredded and mixed with his kitty litter. There is not the remotest question here as to who should be first.”
NL MVP:
1. Jeff Kent
2. Barry Bonds
3. Mike Piazza
4. Jim Edmonds
5. Randy Johnson
6. Kevin Brown
7. Todd Helton
AL MVP:
1. Pedro Martinez
2. Jason Giambi
3. Carlos Delgado
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Nomar Garciaparra
6. Frank Thomas
7. Edgar Martinez
“There might be a case for including Ivan Rodriguez despite his injury.”
Some more quotes. Here’s my written-in-2000 justification for putting Jeff Kent first in the NL; I’m not sure the 2016 version of me is buying it:
“Bonds is a big hitter, the best hitter in the league, but Kent is also a big hitter - essentially the same number of runs created as Bonds albeit in more outs and one of the 5 best hitters in the league - and he’s a second baseman.”
So it’s a positional value argument, but I don’t think I was really properly considering defensive value.
As a final gesture - a single All-Star team across the two leagues, with no position-switching (except for into DH):
C: Mike Piazza
1B: Jason Giambi
2B: Jeff Kent
3B: Troy Glaus
SS: Alex Rodriguez
LF: Barry Bonds
CF: Jim Edmonds
RF: Sammy Sosa
DH: Carlos Delgado
SP: Pedro Martinez
SP: Randy Johnson
SP: Kevin Brown
SP: Greg Maddux
SP: Mike Mussina
RP: Robb Nen
In my 2000 document, I do have a discussion of why I chose Edmonds over Giles (and Andrew Jones and Tony Eusebio). One of the points was that Giles played only 77 of his 156 games in CF, dividing the remainder of his games between LF and RF. But in the same paragraph, I also admit that I don't have actual defensive statistics from 2000 and am partly using prior reputation (including Jones 1999 and Edmonds 1997).
I also have a discussion of Sosa versus Vlad Guerrero, and held it against Vlad as a demerit that the Expos seemed to feel obligated to play Wilton Guerrero. Checking what bb-ref says: they say Wilton G. had -0.8 WAR for 2000, on his way to a -1.7 career total.
C Jason Kendall Piazza was the best offensive catcher, nut defensively was almost 20 runs below Kendall. The thing that tipped the scale to Kendall was the fact that Piazza had about 65 fewer PA than Kendall.
1B Todd Helton An extraordinary offensive season, even after considering the Coors effect. With +25 fielding runs as well, will go down as one of the great ones. Runner-up jeff Bagwell had a very good season, but it was a no contest for the all star.
2B Jeff Kent Kent was about 20 runs better offensively than Alfonso. About the same defensively. Two very good seasons, but, like Helton, Kent was offensively dominant.
3B Jeff Cirillo Cirillo and Rolen had very similar offensive rate stats. But despite Rolen's better defensive numbers, I chose Cirillo as the all star because of his approx. 150 more PA.
SS Edgar Rentaria The best of (at best) a very average bunch.
LF Barry Bonds The best offensive of with a +10 fielding rating.
CF Brian Giles A very interesting decision. After Helton, Bonds and Kent, the next best 5 players (according to WARR) were CF. (Giles, Hidalgo, Griffey, Edmonds and Jones) Giles was the best offensively (65 RAA) with average defensive numbers. Griffey (44 RAA) and Edmonds (49 RAA) were on the next tier offensively. Hidalgo (38 RAA) and Jones (32 RAA) were slightly below them. Giles was and average fielder, Griffey (+10.7) and Edmonds (+5.3) were above average fielders and Hidalgo (+21.5) and Jones (+18.5) were superior fielders. The order of hitting and fielding prowess were essentially reversed. Combing the 2 Giles was just slightly less than 1/2 a win more than Hidalgo.
RF Sammy Sosa A very solid offensive season; -5.5 fielding runs. Bobby Abreu as runner-up.
If actually picking the all star team, it may be better to choose Giles as the RF and pick one of the others as CF. According to the numbers, Hidalgo would be my choice.
SP No real surprises here.
1. Randy Johnson .39 Batting WARR
2. Greg Maddux .07 batting WARR
3. Kevin Brown -.36 batting WARR
4. Tom Glavine -.04 batting WARR
5. MIke Hampton .95 batting WARR
Batting numbers did not change who the top 5 SP were.
RP
Gabe White
Mike Myers
Rob Nen
AL team to follow in a few days.
1. Alex Rodriguez - with post-season bonus
2. Pedro Martinez
3. Jason Giambi
4. Barry Bonds
5. Todd Helton
6. Darrin Erstad
7. Randy Johnson
8. Carlos Delgado
9. Jeff Kent
#'s 10-20
Still trying to decide how to sort these guys, including post-season bonuses:
Troy Glaus
Andruw Jones
Gary Sheffield
Nomar Garciaparra
Manny Ramirez
Brian Giles
Kevin Brown
Jim Edmonds +
Edgardo Alfonzo +
Vlad Guerrero
Richard Hidalgo
C Jorge Posada Rate wise offensively Posada and IRod were very similar, but IRod played only 91 games as compared to 151 games for Posada.
1B jason Giambi Outstanding season. Carlos Delgado also had a superb season but was out distanced both offensively and defensively by Giambi.
2B Roberto Alomar Best of a rather average bunch
3B Troy Glaus best offensive 3B with a +22 fielding rating.
SS Alex Rodriguez A great season, especially for a SS. He was 15 runs better than Garciaparra ofFensively and 4.5 runs defensively.
LF Darin Erstad A very solid offensive season with a +30.8 fielding rating
CF Johnny Damon Damon and Williams were essentiallythe same offensively, but Damon was almost 19 runs better defensively.
RF Manny Ramirez Despite playing only 118 games and having a -18.5 defensive rating, Ramirez' outfield best offense was good enough to make the all star team
DH Frank Thomas Had the best numbers as a DH, but Carlos delgado was about 20 runs better offensively. I think he deserves the all star recognition.
SP
Pedro Martinez He has more than double the WARR of the next best SP
Brad Radke
Mike Mussina
Kenny Rogers
Bartolo Colon
RP
Derek Lowe
Keith Foulke
Jim Mecir
C Jorge Posada Rate wise offensively Posada and IRod were very similar, but IRod played only 91 games as compared to 151 games for Posada.
1B jason Giambi Outstanding season. Carlos Delgado also had a superb season but was out distanced both offensively and defensively by Giambi.
2B Roberto Alomar Best of a rather average bunch
3B Troy Glaus best offensive 3B with a +22 fielding rating.
SS Alex Rodriguez A great season, especially for a SS. He was 15 runs better than Garciaparra ofFensively and 4.5 runs defensively.
LF Darin Erstad A very solid offensive season with a +30.8 fielding rating
CF Johnny Damon Damon and Williams were essentiallythe same offensively, but Damon was almost 19 runs better defensively.
RF Manny Ramirez Despite playing only 118 games and having a -18.5 defensive rating, Ramirez' outfield best offense was good enough to make the all star team
DH Frank Thomas Had the best numbers as a DH, but Carlos delgado was about 20 runs better offensively. I think he deserves the all star recognition.
SP
Pedro Martinez He has more than double the WARR of the next best SP
Brad Radke
Mike Mussina
Kenny Rogers
Bartolo Colon
RP
Derek Lowe
Keith Foulke
Jim Mecir
Sorry above the double post above.
1. Pedro Martinez 11.20 WARR
2. Todd Melton 10.92 WARR
3. Jason Giambi 9.28 WARR
4. Alex Rodriguez 8.77 WARR
5. Randy Johnson 8.27 WARR
6. Darin Erstad 7.66 WARR
7. Carlos Delgado 7.60 WARR
8. Barry Bonds 7.27 WARR
9. Jeff Kent 7.23 WARR
10. Nomar Garciaparra 6.90 WARR
11. Greg Maddux 6.72 WARR
12. Brian Giles 6.57 WARR
13. Frank Thpmas 6.53 WARR
14. Johnny Damon 6.50 WARR
15. Troy Glaus 6.22 WARR
Rest of the top 20
Richard Hidalgo
Kevin Brown
Ken Griffey
Jim Edmonds
Edgar Martinez
I suppose this isn't any great insight or anything, but what a time it was when a CF could bat .355 and both (A) fail to win a batting title and (B) very plausibly be listed sixth on an MMP ballot.
Point of information: Erstad only started 25 games in CF; he started 111 games in LF. The primary CF for the Angels was Garret Anderson. (Yes, Erstad had outstanding defensive numbers and Anderson had average defensive numbers, but that's the way they played. Orlando Palmiero filled in some in LF and RF and was pretty good on defense as well.)
Erstad only spent two years as the primary CF for the Angels: 2001 and 2002. He was hurt in 2003 and then played 1B for the Angels in 2004. He did have a great year on defense in CF in 2002, which corresponded with Jarrod Washburn (a fly ball pitcher) having his best year, in which the Angels won the World Series.
2000 Prelim Ballot
1. Pedro Martinez, P, Boston Red Sox: in the discussion for the greatest pitching season of all time; #2 by ERA+ (291) next to Tim Keefe in 1880
2. Alex Rodriguez, SS, Seattle Mariners: outstanding all-around season; 163 OPS+; +16 fielding and +6 baserunning
3. Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado Rockies: 192 runs created laps the field in the NL; 163 OPS+ and +18 fielding are pretty shiny too
4. Carlos Delgado, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: AL-leading 186 RC and 181 OPS+
5. Jason Giambi, 1B, Oakland Athletics: AL-leading 187 OPS+ and 172 RC
6. Barry Bonds, LF, San Francisco Giants: NL-leading 188 OPS+ and 155 RC
7. Nomar Garciaparra, SS, Boston Red Sox: 7th in AL in OPS+ while adding +9 with the glove
8. Randy Johnson, P, Arizona Diamondbacks: NL-leading 181 ERA+ and 248 IP
9. Jeff Kent, 2B, San Francisco Giants: 162 OPS+ at the hot corner
10. Darin Erstad, LF/CF, Anaheim Angels: +29 fielding plus top ten RC and top 12 OPS+
11. Troy Glaus, 3B, Anaheim Angels: better bat than Erstad (150 OPS+) and a plus glove at third
12. Frank Thomas, DH, Chicago White Sox: 5th in AL in OPS+
13. Mike Piazza, C, New York Mets: 155 OPS+ while wearing the tools of ignorance
14. Kevin Brown, P, Los Angeles Dodgers
15. Greg Maddux, P, Atlanta Braves: Brown and Maddux are 3rd and 4th in NL ERA+ with 230 and 249 IP respectively
16. Vladimir Guerrero, RF, Montreal Expos
17. Sammy Sosa, RF, Chicago Cubs
18. Manny Ramirez, LF, Cleveland Indians
19. Brian Giles, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
20. Edgardo Alfonzo, 2B, New York Mets
Melton?
Typing and its support partner editing are obviously not by strong suits. ;-)
However, recently I have been checking out the post season WPA scores on Baseball Gauge and think this information could very easily form the basis for a post season bonus.
My question to those who already calculate a bonus is this? Do you also debit a player's value who have a poor post season? And if not, what is your rationale for not doing this?
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=845
Giambi and Bonds
Making this adjustment, changes the order of my ballot somewhat. Jeff Kent (+.07 WPA) and Barry Bonds (-.09) switch positions. Frank Thomas (-.24 WPA) drops below Johnny Damon. Greg Maddux (-.32 WPA) drops below Brian Giles.
The only person to come on to the ballot is Jim Edmonds (.42 WPA); who replaces Troy Glaus on the ballot.
I am not unhappy with these changes; especially with Edmonds. After all 7 HR in one post series season probably should get some extra credit.
This year was very difficult as so many gawdy hitting totals were so close
1. Pedro Martinez-- I was reluctant to have him at the very top since he only started 29 games but unlike the hitters, he was head and shoulders above his pitching peers--particularly those in the AL
2. A Rodriguez
3. Giambi--huge year for young A's
4. Bonds
5. Kent
6. Delgado
7. Helton
8. Randy Johnson
9. Andruw Jones
10.Erstad
11.Garciaparra
12.F Thomas
13.Edgar Martinez
14.Piazza--catcher bonus
15.Maddux
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