2003 Ballot


2003 Prelim

1) Albert Pujols - glove and baserunning edge him above Bonds
2) Barry Bonds - best bat, small postseason bump not enough to catch Pujols
3) Mark Prior - decent hitting, good postseason
4) Pedro Martinez - rate production is fantastic, bulk is decent with postseason IP
5) Javier Lopez - best C
6) Alex Rodriguez - best SS
7) Esteban Loaiza - overlooked in Chicago that summer
8) Tim Hudson
9) Jorge Posada
10) Marcus Giles - good glove season
11) Jason Schmidt - postseason shutout
12) Gary Sheffield - all bat
13) Carlos Beltran - great glove
14) Roy Halladay - ate innings but not rate production of Pedro
15) Edgar Renteria

16-20) Nomar Garciaparra, Todd Helton, Bret Boone, Jim Edmonds, Kerry Wood
21-25) Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina, Bobby Abreu, Livan Hernandez, Richard Hidalgo, Jim Thome

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2003 Ballot

1. Barry Bonds, LF, San Francisco Giants: Bonds continues to dominate with a 231 OPS+; +5 fielding isn't too shabby either
2. Albert Pujols, LF, St. Louis Cardinals: 187 OPS+ and 176 RC would be good for an MMP most years
3. Alex Rodriguez, SS, Texas Rangers: huge lead over the rest of the American League thanks to well-rounded game
4. Javier Lopez, C, Atlanta Braves: a 169 OPS+ in 129 games, with +4 fielding
5. Pedro Martinez, P, Boston Red Sox: reminds me of Ted Williams in the mid '50s when a partial season of the Splendid Splinter was as valuable as a full season from anyone else
6. Roy Halladay, P, Toronto Blue Jays: 266 IP laps the field
7. Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado Rockies: 3rd in NL OPS+ with 165
8. Tim Hudson, P, Oakland Athletics: under the radar season is second in AL in ERA+ (165) and IP (240)
9. Carlos Delgado, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: leads the AL in OPS+ with 161
10. Mark Prior, P, Chicago Cubs: 179 ERA+ in 211 IP
11. Jason Schmidt, P, San Francisco Giants: 180 ERA+ in 207 IP leaves him just behind Prior
12. Gary Sheffield, RF, Atlanta Braves: cracking the ballot with yet another franchise
13. Jorge Posada, C, New York Yankees: I love catchers who can hit; Posada cracks the top ten in OPS+ with a 144
14. Kevin Brown, P, Los Angeles Dodgers: WAR doesn't like Brown this year but he's third in the NL with a 169 ERA+
15. Marcus Giles, 2B, Atlanta Braves: 136 OPS+ and +19 fielding from the keystone

16. Manny Ramirez, LF, Boston Red Sox: 2nd in the AL in OPS+ with 159
17. Eric Gagne, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers: 82 IP in relief with a 337 ERA+
18. Esteban Loaiza, P, Chicago White Sox: 159 ERA+ in 226 IP
19. Bret Boone, 2B, Seattle Mariners: 140 OPS+ and 123 RC from the second baseman
20. Nomar Garciaparra, SS, Boston Red Sox: 121 OPS+ and +6 runs fielding at short

2003 Ballot

WAR framework with fewer replacement runs than normal. Pitcher batting and post season adjustment (adj+ or adj-)

1. Todd Helton 10.47 WARR Bonds was the best batter, but +29 fielding runs for Helton gave him the edge.
2. Barry Bonds 9.02 WARR adj +
3. Pedro Martinez 7.80 WARR
4. Roy Halladay 7.55 WARR
5. Gary Sheffield 7.49 WARR adj-
6. Albert Pujols 7.34 WARR
7. Mark Prior 7.24 WARR
8.Carlos Delgado 7.09 WARR
9. Alex Rodriguez 7.07 WARR
10. Tim Hudson 6.74 WARR
11. Marcus Giles 6.67 WARR
12. Mike Mussina 6.48 WARR
13. Jorge Posada 6.42 WARR adj+
14. Kerry Wood 6.14 WARR adj-
15. Jim Edmonds 6.11 WARR

Rest of the top 20
Carlos Beltran
Livan Hernandez
Javier Vazguez
Jason Schmidt
Brandon Webb

1. Bonds
2. Pujols
3. A-Rod

4. Javy Lopez - incredible 170 wRC+ for catcher
5. Roy Halladay - 266 fine innings
6. Mark Prior - 1.52 ERA and 10.4 K/9 over last 11 starts (10-1 W/L); great in playoffs, too
7. Gary Sheffield
8. Todd Helton

9. Carlos Delgado
10. Jim Edmonds
11. Marcus Giles
12. Bret Boone
13. Pedro Martinez
14. Carlos Beltran
15. Jorge Posada - 145 wRC+; played well in ALCS but disappeared in WS

Here's my RPA top rated per runs produced above the nedian:

1. Barry Bonds 69.26 runs
2. Albert Pujols 65.51 runs
3. Gary Sheffield 48,42 runs
4. Jason Giambi 45.14 runs
5. Todd Helton 43.17 runs
6. Jim Thome 42.73 runs
7. Carlos DelGado 40.97 runs
8. Tim Hudson 36.88 runs
9. Alex Rodriguez 33.53 runs
10. Javy Lopez 33.03 runs
11. Jim Edmonds 32.62 runs
12. Derrek Lee 32.08 runs
13. Marcus Giles 31.43 runs
14. Chipper Jones 31.19 runs
15. Roy Halladay 30.75 runs
16. Kevin Brown 30.73 runs
17. Manny Ramirez 30.66 runs
18. Frank Thomas 30.52 runs
19. Esteban Loaiza 29.22 runs
20. Lance Berkman 28.77 runs
21. Pedro Martinez 28.46 runs

2003 MMP final ballot (number in parentheses is WAR/rate-based salary estimator divided by $1M):

1. Barry Bonds, lf, SF (22.235)
2. Albert Pujols, lf, StL (17.892)
3. Javy Lopez, c, Atl (17.207)
4. Pedro Martinez, p, Bos (17.205) - AL MMP
5. Alex Rodriguez, ss, Tex (16.853) - AL MMPosition Player
6. Mark Prior, p, ChC (15.871) - NL MMPitcher
7. Esteban Loaiza, p, CWS (14.539)
8. Marcus Giles, 2b, Atl (14.229)
9. Roy Halladay, p, Tor (13.096)
10. Jason Schmidt, p, SF (12.484)
11. Tim Hudson, p, Oak (12.478)
12. Jorge Posada, c, NYY (12.474)
13. Gary Sheffield, rf, Atl (12.173)
14. Jim Edmonds, cf, StL (11.629)
15. Mike Mussina, p, NYY (11.607)

16-25. Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Curt Schilling, Bret Boone, Nomar Garciaparra, Manny Ramirez, Javier Vazquez, Mark Mulder, Kevin Brown, Carlos Beltran.

Final ballot-no postseason credit but some small credit for playing for a Division-contender
1. Pujols--more playing time & more production due to more hits and less IBBs give edge over Bonds
2. Bonds--close second, if he plays more & gets more at bats rather than IBBs, then probably is #1
3. A Rod--top AL player in a weaker season overall for hitters than I remember it being
4. Javy Lopez--a great somewhat forgotten year, one of the best for a catcher ever
5. Sheffield --catching bonus put Lopez over Sheff
6. Pedro Martinez--great W/L pct, great rate stats
7. Halladay--workhorse pitching almost puts him above Pedro
8. Marcus Giles--ho hum Braves win 100 plus and another East crown but interesting how Lopez, Sheff, & Giles are top contributors. What a well run organization. Giles quick downfall is intriguing
9. Posada--great C season for excellent Yanks team
10.Prior--top NL pitcher. He had guts, threw inside at Bonds & dared him to do something about it. In a bizarro universe he stays healthy & fulfills all potential
11.Delgado--excellent year for struggling Jays franchise trapped behind NYY & BOS in the East
12.Schmidt--forgotten great pitcher
13.Loazia-underrated year
14.Hudson--part of great Oakland staff, look forward to examining his overlooked HOF case when he hits the ballot
15.Beltran--helps KC have a winning season, five tool player

Honorable mention: Mussina, Brown, Gagne, Helton, Manny, Boone

This is Brock Hanke’s ballot for the 2003 MMP election. OMG. I have never seen dissonance like this between Win Shares and WAR. It’s not just that WAR has pitchers ranked higher than Win Shares does; it’s that WAR thinks that some of Win Shares’ highest-ranked position players were really nothing, nothing at all. And it’s random, as far as I can tell. Here’s an example: Javier Lopez had 28.9 Win Shares, and 6.8 WAR. He ranks seventh overall. Jim Thome has 28.8 Win Shares, basically a dead tie with Lopez. But Jim has only 4.7 WAR, which is, just, well, mind-boggling. Overall, Jim is nowhere near being ranked in the top 15. Or 25. Probably not even 30. Yeah, I know that Jim was a lousy defensive first baseman. But he did lead his league in homers and has an OPS+ of 154. One result of this is that some pitchers appear on the Top 15, simply because some of the best hitters in the game are considered, by WAR, to be nothing, so the best pitchers, although ranked lower by WS than WAR, end up on the ballot.

DL posted a good comment (#20 in the Discussion thread), about giving Pedro Martinez credit for his postseason. It’s a good comparison to Roy Halladay. But Win Shares doesn’t count the post-season, nor does WAR, so there are several pitchers ahead of Pedro. I forced him in at #15, because Halladay did make the ballot, and Pedro, with postseason, was likely more valuable than Jorge Posada, who would otherwise be 15th. Anyway, here they are, such as they are:

1. Barry Bonds
2. Albert Pujols
3. ARod
4. Gary Sheffield
5. Marcus Giles
6. Todd Helton
7. Javier Lopez
8. Bret Boone
9. Carlos Delgado
10. Tim Hudson
11. Mark Prior
12. Roy Halladay
13. Esteban Loaiza
14. Nomar Garciaparra
15. Pedro Martinez

Official 2003 MMP Ballot (no postseason bonuses):

1) Barry Bonds: Best ML player and left fielder - not as dominant compared to the last couple of seasons, but still awesome.
2) Albert Pujols: This kid might be okay.
3) Eric Gagne: Best ML pitcher - I actually had him and #4 below before Bonds, but I just couldn't swallow it. I am fully confident that they were better than the pitching starters this season, however. The writers got it right regarding the CYA, IMO.
4) Kevin Foulke: Best AL pitcher.
5) Todd Helton: Best ML first baseman.
6) Bret Boone: Best ML second baseman.
7) Javy Lopez: Best ML catcher.
8) Gary Sheffield: Best ML right fielder.
9) Alex Rodriguez: Best ML shortstop.
10) Carlos Delgado: Best AL first baseman.
11) Marcus Giles: Best NL second baseman.
12) Estebam Loiza: Best ML starting pitcher.
13) Jorge Posada: Best AL catcher.
14) Carlos Beltran: Best ML center fielder.
15) Tim Hudson

Oops, just remembered. Will try to get it in by 4.

Assuming that is Keith Foulke at #4

2003 MMP ballot.

1. Barry Bonds
2. Albert Pujols
3. Javy Lopez
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Roy Halladay
6. Jorge Posada
7. Gary Sheffield
8. Bret Boone
9. Tim Hudson
10. Pedro Martinez
11. Carlos Delgado
12. Esteban Loaiza
13. Todd Helton
14. Marcus Giles
15. Mark Prior

Balloting is closed

Assuming that is Keith Foulke at #4

Yes. That's what happens when I'm speed typing. :-)