2003 Prelim

1) Albert Pujols - glove and baserunning edge him above Bonds
2) Barry Bonds - best bat
3) Pedro Martinez - rate production is fantastic
4) Mark Prior - decent hitting too, what if
5) Alex Rodriguez - best SS
6) Javier Lopez - best C
7) Esteban Loaiza - overlooked in Chicago that summer
8) Tim Hudson
9) Marcus Giles - good glove season
10) Jorge Posada
11) Gary Sheffield - all bat
12) Carlos Beltran - great glove
13) Jason Schmidt
14) Roy Halladay - ate innings but not rate production of Pedro
15) Edgar Renteria

16-20) Todd Helton, Bret Boone, Jim Edmonds, Kevin Brown, Nomar Garciaparra
21-26) Bobby Abreu, Kerry Wood, Livan Hernandez, Richard Hidalgo, Jim Thome, Brandon Webb

Early ballot.

1. Bonds
2. Pujols
3. A-Rod

4. Javy Lopez - incredible 170 wRC+ for catcher
5. Roy Halladay - 266 fine innings
6. Gary Sheffield
7. Todd Helton
8. Mark Prior

9. Carlos Delgado
10. Jim Edmonds
11. Marcus Giles
12. Bret Boone
13. Pedro Martinez
14. Carlos Beltran
15. Trot Nixon - post-season bump

I agree that Pedro has great rates. But quantity counts, too. All those innings that Pedro did not pitch, compared to, say Halladay - well, SOMEBODY had to pitch those innings. And the rate of a #5 starter is nowhere near Pedro's. I wonder what would happen if you took Pedro's actual season, and filled it up to Halladay's workload with a replacement rate pitcher. It would much better represent his contribution to his team. - Brock Hanke

Ahh, a math problem.

Pitcher IP R RA IP/start
Martinez 186-2/3 62 2.99 6.43
Halladay 266 111 3.76 7.39

Halladay - Martinez 79-1/3 49 5.56

So Halladay made 7 more starts and pitched about an inning longer in each start but the difference in effectiveness is of a minor league journeyman. 80 innings with an ERA above 5 isn't that hard to find.

Win Shares thinks the NL CYA voting was correct and Eric Gagne was the right choice. WAR thinks that's a load of crap.

Todd Jones was exactly replacement level (0.00 bWAR) for the Red Sox in 2003, with 5.83 RA9. So Halladay's additional innings are very close to replacement level (I didn't look at anything like park effects). I think you can still give the edge to Halladay over Martinez, but either way they should rank close to each other on ballots.

I found a memo I wrote to some friends in September, 2003. At the time I wrote it, the season wasn't over yet, but most of it was in the books. It started as a reaction to a letter to the editor to the L.A. Times. The memo started out like this:

“For Vin Scully [Sept. 17] to say this year’s Dodger pitching staff is on a par with - let alone better than - the great staffs of the ‘50s, ‘60’s, ‘70s and even ‘80s is akin to saying Shawn Green is the greatest hitter in the history of baseball.

“It just ain’t so.

“This year’s staff of Brown, Nomo, Ishii and even that guy who’s saved 51 straight couldn’t carry the jocks of Koufax, Drysdale, Podres or Osteen with the Vulture waiting in the wings, or Mike Marshall (not the outfielder). Even the Bulldog is 10 times the pitcher that anyone on this staff is.

“No, I’m afraid that in the immortal words of that great former NFL Players’ Assn. chief negotiator: ‘Vin Scully has lost it.’"

(And then my reply)

Well, [letter writer], you’re wrong. The 2003 Dodgers are a great pitching/defense team. They’re not merely as good as the teams you mentioned (which is what Vin was saying); they’re better. Their problem is that they don’t hit as well as all of those teams you mention.

(I'll paraphrase from here.)

I go on to talk about 1965 and 1966, noting that the letter to the editor writer was picking and choosing from those two years. I settled on 1966 as the more apt comparison, and I noted that the 1966 Dodgers had allowed (park corrected) about 80% of league average runs while scoring 99% of league average. Great pitching, average offense. (The popular impression of bad offense was, of course, a park effect.) I didn't have 2003 park factors (although I did have bb-ref to work with), and I made an estimate that was intentionally biased against the 2003 team (that is, assuming a too-low park factor). And I came to the conclusion (with the season not yet quite over) that the 2003 Dodgers were allowing something like 78% of league average runs but only scoring 85% of league average. (And both estimates could have been lower - after all, I biased the park factor.) That's the headline: the 2003 Dodgers were a great pitching/defense team with wholly inadequate offense; one of the most imbalanced teams of all time.

(I should - or someone should - revisit all of that with actual year-end data and correct park factors.)

Now some quotes from myself from later on in my memo:

"What about the individuals involved? I will grant that the 2003 Dodgers don’t have a Koufax. But the flip side is that of the Dodger starters, only Odalis Perez is as bad as Don Drysdale. Yes, I know that Drysdale is in the Hall of Fame. I think Kevin Brown has a much better case for the Hall of Fame than Drysdale. Drysdale in 1966 was a guy who ate up innings with a near-league-average effectiveness (actually slightly below league average). His 13-16 record isn’t far from a fair reflection of his performance."

"So what do you see? The 2003 team doesn’t have a Koufax, but Brown is a legitimate Cy Young candidate. (I’m leaning toward Jason Schmidt there.) The rest of them - Nomo, Ishii, Perez, Alvarez - have been more effective than Osteen, Sutton, and Drysdale, albeit in fewer innings. The starters have fewer innings because more innings are given to relievers. Regan had a great year in 1966, but I’d take either Gagne or Mota over him. (Regan’s 1966 was a stone fluke - he was never otherwise remotely close to that good, before or after.) And Quantrill, Shuey, and Martin stack up quite well to Miller, Perranoski, and Moeller.

The 1966 Dodgers were a great pitching team. The 2003 Dodgers are a great pitching/defense team. It is always true that a good deal of what appears to be pitching is actually defense. Cesar Izturis should absolutely win the Gold Glove, and you can make Gold Glove cases for Alex Cora, Adrian Beltre, and Dave Roberts. I don’t think the 1966 team had a defense quite that good. But even allowing for that defense, I think the 2003 Dodgers stand quite well as a great pitching team.

However...

The 2003 Dodgers are among the top 5 most unbalanced teams ever in the proportion of value that is pitching and defense as opposed to offense.

The 2003 Dodgers are one of the best teams ever to finish dead last in a league in runs scored.

The 2003 Dodgers are the worst team ever that could be considered a great pitching team."

(I also went back and talked about the 1967 Cardinals - the first team I ever followed closely - partly to mention that those Cardinals played Dal Maxvill but pinch hit for him every time they could in the late innings of a close game and finished the game with a backup SS. The 2003 Dodgers couldn't do that with Izturis because there aren't enough non-pitchers on a 21st century roster to do that. Not that Izturis was the only problem with the offense. This was a team that was playing their regular catcher at 1B or LF just to get the backup catcher's bat into the game.)

Oh - and Rickey Henderson was a 2003 Dodger. Not that he had much left, of course. Pitchers weren't afraid to come right down the middle on him by then.

I'll add that I don't have any kind of comprehensive post-season all-star memo, so I don't really have the contemporary material needed to put together a ballot.

2003 is close enough that I think you could look up the favorite SABR stat of the day and it would be available to search.

One other thing that I remember from 2003:

In one of his Abstracts, Bill James introduced the idea of "Secondary Average," which was extra bases on hits plus walks plus stolen bases, all divided by AB. Now, that was kind of malformed and not really much of an analytic stat (which James knew), but it was fun. Part of the reason that it was fun was that good numbers looked a lot like good numbers for BA, except the range was wider. I decided to pay attention to the numerator of this, namely secondary bases. And to look at career totals. At the time I was looking, there were about a half-dozen players (all of them all-time greats) clustered right around 4000 career secondary bases (I remember that Joe Morgan was in that group). And then, there was Babe Ruth, off all by himself at > 5000 career secondary bases.

But at some point in the middle of the 2003 season, Babe Ruth got passed for the career secondary base lead - by Rickey Henderson. Rickey held that title for the blink of an eye, before Barry Bonds blew by them both at warp speed.

OCF (#7) - What you said about Dal Maxvill on the 1967 Cards is not completely correct, although it is a feature of that team. The Cards pinch-hit for Maxvill late if they were trailing or tied. Not when they were ahead. Maxvill was clearly the best defensive SS they had. They were only going to hit for him if they needed runs, not to prevent runs. They also did this with Julian Javier, the second baseman. Javier was, like Maxvill, a Gold Glove candidate who couldn't hit. The Cards' up-the-middle defense was truly impressive: McCarver, Javier, Maxvill, and Flood. - Brock Hanke

2003 Prelim- NL Only

1. Barry Bonds, LF, San Francisco Giants: Bonds continues to dominate with a 231 OPS+; +5 fielding isn't too shabby either
2. Albert Pujols, LF, St. Louis Cardinals: 187 OPS+ and 176 RC would be good for an MVP most years
3. Javy Lopez, C, Atlanta Braves: a 169 OPS+ in 129 games, with +4 fielding
4. Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado Rockies: 3rd in NL OPS+ with 165
5. Mark Prior, P, Chicago Cubs: 179 ERA+ in 211 IP
6. Jason Schmidt, P, San Francisco Giants: 180 ERA+ in 207 IP leaves him just behind Prior
7. Gary Sheffield, RF, Atlanta Braves: cracking the ballot with yet another franchise (his 4th?)
8. Kevin Brown, P, Los Angeles Dodgers: WAR doesn't like Brown this year but he's third in the NL with a 169 ERA+
9. Marcus Giles, 2B, Atlanta Braves: 136 OPS+ and +19 fielding from the keystone
10. Eric Gagne, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers: 82 IP in relief with a 337 ERA+

2003 Prelim- AL Only

1. Alex Rodriguez, SS, Texas Rangers: huge lead over the rest of the league
2. Pedro Martinez, P, Boston Red Sox: reminds me of Ted Williams in the mid '50s when a partial season of the Splendid Splinter was as valuable as a full season from anyone else
3. Roy Halladay, P, Toronto Blue Jays: 266 IP laps the field
4. Tim Hudson, P, Oakland Athletics: under the radar season is second in ERA+ (165) and IP (240)
5. Carlos Delgado, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: leads the AL in OPS+ with 161
6. Jorge Posada, C, New York Yankees: I love catchers who can hit; Posada cracks the top ten in OPS+ with a 144
7. Manny Ramirez, LF, Boston Red Sox: 2nd in the AL in OPS+ with 159
8. Esteban Loaiza, P, Chicago White Sox: 159 ERA+ in 226 IP
9. Bret Boone, 2B, Seattle Mariners: 140 OPS+ and 123 RC from the second baseman
10. Nomar Garciaparra, SS, Boston Red Sox: 121 OPS+ and +6 runs fielding at short

2003 Prelim

1. Barry Bonds, LF, San Francisco Giants: Bonds continues to dominate with a 231 OPS+; +5 fielding isn't too shabby either
2. Albert Pujols, LF, St. Louis Cardinals: 187 OPS+ and 176 RC would be good for an MMP most years
3. Alex Rodriguez, SS, Texas Rangers: huge lead over the rest of the American League thanks to well-rounded game
4. Javy Lopez, C, Atlanta Braves: a 169 OPS+ in 129 games, with +4 fielding
5. Pedro Martinez, P, Boston Red Sox: reminds me of Ted Williams in the mid '50s when a partial season of the Splendid Splinter was as valuable as a full season from anyone else
6. Roy Halladay, P, Toronto Blue Jays: 266 IP laps the field
7. Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado Rockies: 3rd in NL OPS+ with 165
8. Tim Hudson, P, Oakland Athletics: under the radar season is second in AL in ERA+ (165) and IP (240)
9. Carlos Delgado, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: leads the AL in OPS+ with 161
10. Mark Prior, P, Chicago Cubs: 179 ERA+ in 211 IP
11. Jason Schmidt, P, San Francisco Giants: 180 ERA+ in 207 IP leaves him just behind Prior
12. Gary Sheffield, RF, Atlanta Braves: cracking the ballot with yet another franchise
13. Jorge Posada, C, New York Yankees: I love catchers who can hit; Posada cracks the top ten in OPS+ with a 144
14. Kevin Brown, P, Los Angeles Dodgers: WAR doesn't like Brown this year but he's third in the NL with a 169 ERA+
15. Marcus Giles, 2B, Atlanta Braves: 136 OPS+ and +19 fielding from the keystone

16. Manny Ramirez, LF, Boston Red Sox: 2nd in the AL in OPS+ with 159
17. Eric Gagne, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers: 82 IP in relief with a 337 ERA+
18. Esteban Loaiza, P, Chicago White Sox: 159 ERA+ in 226 IP
19. Bret Boone, 2B, Seattle Mariners: 140 OPS+ and 123 RC from the second baseman
20. Nomar Garciaparra, SS, Boston Red Sox: 121 OPS+ and +6 runs fielding at short

NLDS Marlins 3 Giants 1

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Ivan Rodriguez 4 17 3 6 1 0 1 6 3 1 .353 .450 .588 1.038 0 0 0

Barry Bonds 4 9 3 2 1 0 0 2 8 0 .222 .556 .333 .889 1 0 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Dontrelle Willis 2 1 7.94 0 0 0 0 5.2 7 5 5 2 3 1.588

Sidney Ponson 1 1 7.20 0 0 0 0 5.0 7 4 4 0 3 1.400 
Jason Schmidt 1 1 0.00 1 0 0 1 9.0 3 0 0 0 5 0.333

NLDS Cubs 3 Braves 2

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Rafael Furcal 5 19 3 4 0 0 0 0 3 5 .211 .318 .211 .529 1 0 1
Marcus Giles 5 14 3 5 0 0 1 3 2 2 .357 .412 .571 .983 0 0 1
Andruw Jones 5 17 1 1 0 0 0 1 4 7 .059 .238 .059 .297 0 0 1
Chipper Jones 5 18 3 3 0 0 2 6 3 4 .167 .286 .500 .786 0 0 0
Javy Lopez 5 21 1 7 2 0 0 0 0 6 .333 .333 .429 .762 0 0 1
Gary Sheffield 4 14 0 2 0 0 0 1 2 0 .143 .294 .143 .437 0 0 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Mark Prior 1 1 1.00 1 0 0 1 9.0 2 1 1 4 7 0.667
Kerry Wood 2 2 1.76 2 0 0 0 15.1 7 3 3 7 18 0.913
Carlos Zambrano 1 1 4.76 0 0 0 0 5.2 11 3 3 0 4 1.941

ALDS Yankees 3 Twins 1

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Jason Giambi 4 16 1 4 2 0 0 2 2 5 .250 .333 .375 .708 0 0
Jorge Posada 4 17 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 6 .176 .176 .235 .412 0 0 0
Alfonso Soriano 4 19 2 7 1 0 0 4 0 6 .368 .368 .421 .789 2 0 1

Corey Koskie 4 15 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 5 .200 .200 .267 .467 0 1 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Roger Clemens 1 1 1.29 1 0 0 0 7.0 5 1 1 1 6 0.857
Mike Mussina 1 1 3.86 0 1 0 0 7.0 7 3 3 3 6 1.429 
Mariano Rivera 2 0 0.00 0 0 2 0 4.0 0 0 0 0 4 0.000
David Wells 1 1 1.17 1 0 0 0 7.2 8 1 1 0 5 1.043 

ALDS Red Sox 3 Athletics 2

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Nomar Garciaparra 5 20 2 6 1 0 0 0 3 2 .300 .391 .350 .741 1 0 1
Bill Mueller 5 19 0 2 1 0 0 0 3 4 .105 .227 .158 .385 0 0 0
Trot Nixon 4 10 1 2 0 0 1 2 1 3 .200 .273 .500 .773 0 0 0
Manny Ramirez 5 20 2 4 0 0 1 3 3 7 .200 .304 .350 .654 0 0 0

Eric Chavez 5 22 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 3 .045 .087 .091 .178 1 0 2
Miguel Tejada 5 23 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 4 .087 .087 .130 .217 0 0 1

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Pedro Martinez 2 2 3.86 1 0 0 0 14.0 13 6 6 5 9 1.286 

Tim Hudson 2 2 3.52 0 0 0 0 7.2 10 3 3 1 6 1.435 
Barry Zito 2 2 3.46 1 1 0 0 13.0 9 5 5 4 13 1.000

ALCS Yankees 4 Red Sox 3

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Jason Giambi 7 26 4 6 0 0 3 3 4 7 .231 .333 .577 .910 0 0 
Jorge Posada 7 27 5 8 4 0 1 6 3 4 .296 .367 .556 .922 0 0 0
Alfonso Soriano 7 30 0 4 1 0 0 3 1 11 .133 .188 .167 .354 2 0 1

Nomar Garciaparra 7 29 2 7 0 1 0 1 2 8 .241 .290 .310 .601 0 0 1 
Bill Mueller 7 27 1 6 2 0 0 0 2 7 .222 .276 .296 .572 0 0 0
Trot Nixon 7 24 3 8 1 0 3 5 3 7 .333 .429 .750 1.179 1 2 0
Manny Ramirez 7 29 6 9 1 0 2 4 1 4 .310 .333 .552 .885 0 1 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Roger Clemens 2 2 5.00 1 0 0 0 9.0 11 6 5 2 8 1.444 
Mike Mussina 3 2 4.11 0 2 0 0 15.1 16 7 7 4 17 1.304 
Mariano Rivera 4 0 1.13 1 0 2 0 8.0 5 1 1 0 6 0.625
David Wells 2 1 2.35 1 0 0 0 7.2 5 2 2 2 5 0.913 

Pedro Martinez 2 2 5.65 0 1 0 0 14.1 16 9 9 2 14 1.256

All those innings that Pedro did not pitch, compared to, say Halladay

Pedro pitched another 28.3 innings in the postseason with a 4.77 ERA. That narrows the gap between Pedro and Halladay to:

Pitcher IP R RAvg IP/start
Martinez 215 77 2.99 6.51
Halladay 266 111 3.76 7.39

Halladay - Martinez 51 34 6.00

51 innings with a run average of 6.0 is below replacement

NLCS Marlins 4 Cubs 3

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Ivan Rodriguez 7 28 5 9 2 0 2 10 5 7 .321 .424 .607 1.031 0 0 1

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Dontrelle Willis 2 1 18.90 0 1 0 0 3.1 4 7 7 6 4 3.000 

Mark Prior 2 2 3.14 1 1 0 0 14.1 14 8 5 5 11 1.326 
Kerry Wood 2 2 7.30 0 1 0 0 12.1 14 10 10 7 13 1.703
Carlos Zambrano 2 2 5.73 0 1 0 0 11.0 14 8 7 5 8 1.727

World Series Marlins 4 Yankees 2

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Ivan Rodriguez 6 22 2 6 2 0 0 1 1 4 .273 .292 .364 .655 0 0 0

Jason Giambi 6 17 2 4 1 0 1 1 4 3 .235 .409 .471 .880 0 0 0
Jorge Posada 6 19 0 3 1 0 0 1 5 7 .158 .333 .211 .544 1 1 0
Alfonso Soriano 6 22 2 5 0 0 1 2 2 9 .227 .292 .364 .655 1 1 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Dontrelle Willis 3 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 3.2 4 0 0 2 3 1.636

Roger Clemens 1 1 3.86 0 0 0 0 7.0 8 3 3 0 5 1.143
Mike Mussina 1 1 1.29 1 0 0 0 7.0 7 1 1 1 9 1.143 
Mariano Rivera 2 0 0.00 0 0 1 0 4.0 2 0 0 0 4 0.500 
David Wells 2 2 3.38 0 1 0 0 8.0 6 3 3 2 1 1.000

Preliminary ballot-no postseason credit but some small credit for playing for a Division-contender
1. Pujols--more playing time & more production due to more hits and less IBBs give edge over Bonds
2. Bonds--close second, if he plays more & gets more at bats rather than IBBs, then probably is #1
3. A Rod--top AL player in a weaker season overall for hitters than I remember it being
4. Javy Lopez--a great somewhat forgotten year, one of the best for a catcher ever
5. Sheffield --catching bonus put Lopez over Sheff
6. Pedro Martinez--great W/L pct, great rate stats
7. Halladay--workhorse pitching almost puts him above Pedro
8. Marcus Giles--ho hum Braves win 100 plus and another East crown but interesting how Lopez, Sheff, & Giles are top contributors. What a well run organization. Giles quick downfall is intriguing
9. Posada--great C season for excellent Yanks team
10.Prior--top NL pitcher, may wind up elevating him. He had guts, threw inside at Bonds & dared him to do something about it. In a bizarro universe he stays healthy & fulfills all potential
11.Delgado--excellent year for struggling Jays franchise trapped behind NYY & BOS in the East
12.Schmidt--forgotten great pitcher
13.Loazia-underrated year
14.Hudson--part of great Oakland staff, look forward to examining his overlooked HOF case when he hits the ballot
15.Beltran--helps KC have a winning season, five tool player

Honorable mention: Mussina, Brown, Gagne, Helton, Manny, Boone