Jake Peavy 20.7 6.9
Roy Oswalt 17.9 6.6
Brad Penny 18.3 6.6
Josh Beckett 17.8 6.6
CC Sabathia 22.2 6.4
John Lackey 21.1 6.3
Roberto Hernandez 21.0 6.2
Javier Vazquez 18.4 6.1
Mark Buehrle 16.6 6.1
Brandon Webb 22.9 5.9
Scott Kazmir 14.3 5.9
Erik Bedard 16.2 5.8

Not a lot of separation between the top pitchers this year. Could be a tight race.

2007 Prelim

1) Alex Rodriguez - Best bat, average glove at 3B. No contest this year.
2) David Wright - Well rounded player
3) Chase Utley - great glove
4) Albert Pujols - good glove season at 1B, great bat
5) Chipper Jones - best bat in NL
6) Curtis Granderson
7) Troy Tulowitzki
8) Magglio Ordonez
9) Jorge Posada - huge hitting season
10) Russell Martin
11) Jimmy Rollins
12) Roy Oswalt - best pitcher
13) Robinson Cano - slick fielding
14) Jake Peavy - great bat for a pitcher
15) Josh Beckett - best AL pitcher

16-20) Carlos Pena, Placido Polanco, Brad Penny, Brandon Webb, CC Sabathia
21-26) John Lackey, Roberto Hernandez, Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez, Ichiro Suzuki, David Ortiz

Thought it would be interesting to post leaderboards in MMP ballots by position:

RHP: Roger Clemens 13
LHP: Randy Johnson 10
C: Gary Carter, Yogi Berra 9
1B: Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire 8
2B: Napoleon Lajoie 9
3B: Mike Schmidt 13
SS: Honus Wagner 11
LF: Barry Bonds 17
CF: Willie Mays 16
RF: Henry Aaron 16
DH: Edgar Martinez 7

That is cool. Thanks.

How close is Pujols to catching Thomas/McGwire? I have to think that both Pujols and Gehrig will eventually pass them by.

Lajoie is the other endangered leader. I'd guess that Hornsby ends up the frontrunner- though Eddie Collins might take the crown for a time, depending on the order of votes.

Here’s Brock Hanke’s ballot for 2007. This is the final ballot, as I’m going to be out of town for almost all of the second half of August. Please treat this as my final ballot.

It was a surprise. There was a lot of consensus between WAR and Win Shares, much more than normal. But, yes, there were a couple of severe disconnects. Win Shares has Hanley Ramirez ranked 5th; WAR has him 54th. That’s a disconnect. There’s a trio of disconnects going the other way, right next to each other, that are truly bizarre. In WAR, Brad Penny, Roy Oswalt, and Josh Beckett are in a three-way tie for 12th place. In Win Shares, they rank 55th, 56th, and 57th. I don’t expect to see THAT ever again.

One of the side effects of good consensus is that no pitchers make the top 15, because the consensus doesn’t leave any room for any. Usually, there are enough disconnects that the best pitcher in the game at least makes the 15; sometimes I have to force a pitcher from the other league onto the ballot, because people here want the best pitcher from each league, but I don’t think I’ve ever had a ballot with no pitchers on it. So, I forced Jake Peavy (9th in WAR, 40th in Win Shares; I don’t think that WAR has ever generated a list whose best pitcher was as low as 9th before) and C. C. Sabathia (16th and 33rd) on to the ballot, replacing Grady Sizemore and Robinson Cano.

OK, enough of that; here’s the list:

1. ARod
2. Albert Pujols
3. David Wright
4. Magglio Ordonez
5. Chase Utley
6. Curtis Granderson
7. Carlos Pena
8. Chipper Jones
9. Jimmy Rollins
10. David Ortiz
11. Troy Tulowitski
12. Ichiro
13. Matt Holliday
14. Jake Peavy
15. C. C. Sabathia

Pujols will certainly tie for the lead in 2007 with his 8th appearance

Brock - I wouldn't force pitchers onto the ballot just to put them there. I don't trust a system that says 40+ players are more valuable than having the best pitcher in the league but this was not an impressive year for pitching.

DL - I generally would not, either. But the reason that almost no pitchers ever end up on the ballot at first calculation, is because I'm ranking Win Shares as important as WAR, when there are many versions of WAR out there, and their developers share info. Win Shares has almost nobody who has worked on it in the last 15 years. So, on the precise subject of pitchers, I'm willing to force, to counter what might be a Win Shares bias. I, personally, agree with Win Shares on this, but I haven't invented any pitcher ranking stats at all. - Brock Hanke

2007 Preliminary

WAR framework using value added runs; using DRA fielding numbrers; reduced replacement runs (WARR) and post season adjustmeet using Baseball Gauge's world series WPA.(adj+ or adj-)

1. Alex Rodriguez 8.46 WARR Best ML hitter.
2. Matt Holliday 7.34 WARR adj+ NL best hitter and +28.5 fielding runs. Post season adjustment moved him ahead of Pujols.
3. Albert Pujols 7.29 WARR
4. Curtis Granderson 6.71 WARR Above average hiter; +26 fielding runs.
5. David Wright 6.63 WARR
6. Jake Peavy 6.31 WARR Best ML pitcher; above average hitter.
7. Chipper Jones 6.21 WARR
8. Magglio Ordonez 6.18 WARR
9. Troy Tulowitzki 6.18 WARR adj-
10. Brad Penny 5.95 WARR Outstanding hitting separates him from the rest of the other pitchers.
11. C.C. Sabathia 5.84 WARR adj - best AL pitcher
12. Carlos Pena 5.80 WARR
13. Chase Utley 5.71 WARR
14. Ichiro Suzuki 5.61 WARR
15. David Ortiz 5.54 WARR

Rest of the top 20: A whole bunch of pitchers
16. John Lackey
17. Roberto Hernadez
18. Josh beckett
19. Tim Hudson
20. Scott Kazmir

.

NLDS Rockies 3 Phillies 0

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Todd Helton 3 12 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 .083 .154 .250 .404 0 0 0
Matt Holliday 3 13 2 3 0 0 2 3 0 3 .231 .231 .692 .923 0 0 0
Troy Tulowitzki 3 12 1 2 1 0 1 2 1 5 .167 .231 .500 .731 0 1 0

Jimmy Rollins 3 11 1 2 0 1 1 4 2 3 .182 .308 .636 .944 1 0 0
Aaron Rowand 3 12 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 4 .083 .083 .333 .417 0 0 0
Chase Utley 3 11 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 .182 .308 .182 .490 0 0 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP  
Manny Corpas 3 0 0.00 0 0 3 0 3.1 2 0 0 0 3 0.600
Jeff Francis 1 1 3.00 1 0 0 0 6.0 4 2 2 2 8 1.000

Cole Hamels 1 1 4.05 0 1 0 0 6.2 3 3 3 4 7 1.050

NLDS Diamondbacks 3 Cubs 0

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Aramis Ramirez 3 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 .000 .077 .000 .077 0 0 0
Alfonso Soriano 3 14 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 4 .143 .200 .143 .343 0 0 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP  
Brandon Webb 1 1 1.29 1 0 0 0 7.0 4 1 1 3 9 1.000

Ted Lilly 1 1 16.20 0 1 0 0 3.1 7 6 6 4 4 3.300
Carlos Marmol 2 0 9.00 0 1 0 0 3.0 3 3 3 3 6 2.000
Carlos Zambrano 1 1 1.50 0 0 0 0 6.0 4 1 1 1 8 0.833

ALDS Red Sox 3 Angels 0

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Mike Lowell 3 9 1 3 2 0 0 3 1 0 .333 .364 .556 .919 0 0 1 
David Ortiz 3 7 5 5 0 0 2 3 6 1 .714 .846 1.571 2.418 0 0 
Kevin Youkilis 3 12 3 3 1 0 1 2 1 4 .250 .286 .583 .869 0 0 0

Orlando Cabrera 3 12 0 3 1 0 0 1 1 1 .250 .308 .333 .641 0 0 0
Vlad Guerrero 3 10 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .200 .333 .200 .533 0 0 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP  
Josh Beckett 1 1 0.00 1 0 0 1 9.0 4 0 0 0 8 0.444
Daisuke Matsuzaka 1 1 5.79 0 0 0 0 4.2 7 3 3 3 3 2.143
Hideki Okajima 2 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 2.1 1 0 0 1 2 0.857
Jonathan Papelbon 1 0 0.00 1 0 0 0 1.1 0 0 0 2 1 1.500
Curt Schilling 1 1 0.00 1 0 0 0 7.0 6 0 0 1 4 1.000

Kelvim Escobar 1 1 5.40 0 0 0 0 5.0 4 3 3 5 5 1.800
John Lackey 1 1 6.00 0 1 0 0 6.0 9 4 4 2 4 1.833

ALDS Cleveland 3 Yankees 1

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Victor Martinez 4 17 2 6 1 0 1 4 1 3 .353 .421 .588 1.009 0 0 0
Grady Sizemore 4 16 3 6 0 1 1 1 4 4 .375 .524 .688 1.211 1 1 0

Robinson Cano 4 15 3 5 1 0 2 3 1 1 .333 .375 .800 1.175 0 1 1
Derek Jeter 4 17 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 4 .176 .176 .176 .353 0 0 0 
Hideki Matsui 4 11 4 2 0 0 0 0 5 2 .182 .438 .182 .619 0 0 
Jorge Posada 4 15 1 2 1 0 0 0 2 3 .133 .235 .200 .435 0 0 0
Alex Rodriguez 4 15 2 4 0 0 1 1 2 6 .267 .353 .467 .820 0 0 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP  
Rafael Betancourt 2 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 2.0 1 0 0 0 3 0.500
Roberto Hernandez 1 1 1.00 0 0 0 0 9.0 3 1 1 2 5 0.556
C.C. Sabathia 1 1 5.40 1 0 0 0 5.0 4 3 3 6 5 2.000

Chien-Ming Wang 2 2 19.06 0 2 0 0 5.2 14 12 12 4 2 3.176

NLCS Rockies 4 Diamondbacks 0

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Todd Helton 4 14 3 3 0 0 0 1 2 4 .214 .294 .214 .508 0 0 0
Matt Holliday 4 15 3 5 0 0 2 4 1 6 .333 .412 .733 1.145 0 0 0
Troy Tulowitzki 4 16 1 3 0 0 0 0 1 5 .188 .235 .188 .423 0 0 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP  
Manny Corpas 4 0 1.69 1 0 2 0 5.1 3 1 1 0 3 0.563
Jeff Francis 1 1 1.35 1 0 0 0 6.2 7 1 1 1 4 1.200

Brandon Webb 1 1 6.00 0 1 0 0 6.0 7 4 4 2 4 1.500

ALCS Red Sox 4 Cleveland 3

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Mike Lowell 7 27 3 9 2 0 1 8 2 3 .333 .375 .519 .894 0 0 0
David Ortiz 7 24 7 7 3 0 1 3 6 5 .292 .424 .542 .966 0 0 
Kevin Youkilis 7 28 10 14 1 1 3 7 5 3 .500 .576 .929 1.504 0 0 1

Victor Martinez 7 27 4 8 1 0 1 3 3 5 .296 .367 .444 .811 0 0 0
Grady Sizemore 7 27 6 6 2 0 1 2 4 5 .222 .313 .407 .720 1 0 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP  
Josh Beckett 2 2 1.93 2 0 0 0 14.0 9 3 3 1 18 0.714
Daisuke Matsuzaka 2 2 5.59 1 1 0 0 9.2 12 6 6 2 9 1.448
Hideki Okajima 3 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 5.0 4 0 0 2 3 1.200
Jonathan Papelbon 3 0 0.00 0 0 1 0 5.0 3 0 0 2 3 1.000
Curt Schilling 2 2 5.40 1 0 0 0 11.2 15 7 7 0 8 1.286

Rafael Betancourt 5 0 6.75 0 0 0 0 8.0 6 7 6 1 6 0.875
Roberto Hernandez 2 2 16.50 0 1 0 0 6.0 10 11 11 9 7 3.167
C.C. Sabathia 2 2 10.45 0 2 0 0 10.1 17 12 12 7 9 2.323

World Series Red Sox 4 Rockies 0

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Mike Lowell 4 15 6 6 3 0 1 4 3 1 .400 .500 .800 1.300 1 0 1
David Ortiz 4 15 4 5 3 0 0 4 2 3 .333 .412 .533 .945 0 0 0
Kevin Youkilis 4 9 3 2 2 0 0 1 3 1 .222 .417 .444 .861 0 0 0

Todd Helton 4 15 2 5 2 0 0 1 2 3 .333 .412 .467 .878 0 0 0
Matt Holliday 4 17 1 5 0 0 1 3 0 3 .294 .294 .471 .765 0 0 0
Troy Tulowitzki 4 13 1 3 2 0 0 1 2 5 .231 .333 .385 .718 0 0 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP  
Josh Beckett 1 1 1.29 1 0 0 0 7.0 6 1 1 1 9 1.000 
Daisuke Matsuzaka 1 1 3.38 1 0 0 0 5.1 3 2 2 3 5 1.125
Hideki Okajima 3 0 7.36 0 0 0 0 3.2 4 3 3 0 6 1.091
Jonathan Papelbon 3 0 0.00 0 0 3 0 4.1 2 0 0 0 3 0.462 
Curt Schilling 1 1 1.69 1 0 0 0 5.1 4 1 1 2 4 1.125

Manny Corpas 2 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 1.2 1 0 0 0 1 0.600
Jeff Francis 1 1 13.50 0 1 0 0 4.0 10 6 6 3 3 3.250

Josh Beckett will get a 15% bonus for the postseason (30 extra terrific innings) which makes him my top pitcher of 2007

2007 Prelim

1. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees: leads the majors in OPS+ and RC with 176 and 166
2. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies: top National Leaguer thanks to all-around play (+3 baserunning and +18 defense to go with top ten OPS+)
3. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets: almost identical to Utley with slightly better bat and slightly worse baserunning
4. David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox: 171 OPS+ and 156 RC
5. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: Does this count as a down year for The Machine?
6. Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves: leads the NL in OPS+ with 165 but defense pales next to Utley, Wright and Pujols
7. Magglio Ordonez, RF, Detroit Tigers: 166 OPS+ and 152 RC
8. Jorge Posada, C, New York Yankees: career year with 153 OPS+
9. Brandon Webb, P, Arizona Diamondbacks: doesn't get the publicity of Santana but another great pitcher whose career ended abruptly due to injury: 158 ERA+ in 236 IP
10. Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays: 172 OPS+ but only 135 RC
11. Jake Peavy, P, San Diego Padres: ties Webb for ERA+ with 158 but trails in IP with 223
12. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins: great bat (145 OPS+), awful glove (-28 fielding)
13. Matt Holliday, LF, Colorado Rockies: 150 OPS+ and 151 RC
14. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies: another well-rounded Phillie with +5 fielding and 119 OPS+
15. CC Sabathia, P, Cleveland Indians: sneaks onto the ballot as the top AL pitcher thanks to 141 ERA+ in 241 IP

16. John Lackey, P, Los Angeles Angels: leads AL in ERA+ with 150 but trails Sabathia by 17 IP
17. Curtis Granderson, CF, Detroit Tigers: top ten OPS+ (135) and +14 defense
18. Russell Martin, C, Los Angeles Dodgers: +18 defense from behind the dish and 116 OPS+ from the batter's box
19. Roberto Hernandez, P, Cleveland Indians: whodathunkit?
20. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: 2nd in NL OPS+ with 157 but brutal -15 fielding
21. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
22. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Florida Marlins
23. Dan Haren, P, Oakland Athletics
24. Brad Penny, P, Los Angeles Dodgers
25. Roy Oswalt, P, Houston Astros

test

Sorry so late with this, was away on business.

1. Alex Rodriguez - no contest
2. David Wright
3. Magglio Ordonez
4. Chipper Jones
5. David Ortiz - DH penalty canceled out by post-season play
6. Albert Pujols - a "down" year for him
7. Chase Utley
8. Curtis Granderson
9. Carlos Pena
10. Matt Holliday
11. Jimmy Rollins
12. Grady Sizemore
13. Jorge Posada
14. Josh Beckett - post-season bump
15. Ichiro Suzuki

The overall MMP is a foregone conclusion this year but a real battle is shaping up for the NL MMP. Taking a look at the ballots submitted so far, five players have received the top slot for the NL: Wright, Holliday, Utley, Pujols, and now Martin.

Problem is most of those players have also been left off a ballot entirely. Pujols, Utley, Holliday all left off a ballot. Martin was left off 6 ballots. Caiman's formula is hitter friendly so I'm not sure how he got Pujols at 16th behind guys like Jack Cust, Prince Fielder and Barry Bonds.