"Previous year" could mean 2012 or 1988. I'm flexible with that.

2013 Ballot

1. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers: I had Trout first in 2012 but Miggy wielded an even bigger bat in 2013 and Trout wasn't quite as outstanding in the other aspects of the game
2. Clayton Kershaw, P, Los Angeles Dodgers: MLB leading 194 ERA+ and 236 innings
3. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels: 179 OPS+ and 155 runs created
4. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks: I was kind of surprised to see Goldy first among NL position players but he was first in OPS+, first in runs created, and added +13 fielding runs with his glove
5. Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles: 165 OPS+ and 143 runs created
6. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: 145 OPS+ and +6 fielding runs at the keystone
7. Matt Carpenter, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
8. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates: Carpenter and McCutchen are essentially tied
9. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland Athletics: 148 OPS+ and +12 fielding runs at the hot corner
10. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: would be higher if he didn't walk so much (just kidding); a 154 OPS+ and NL leading 132 runs created
11. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies: 140 OPS+ and +6 fielding at short
12. Jose Fernandez, P, Miami Marlins
13. Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals: 131 OPS+ and +12 fielding behind the plate
14. Max Scherzer, P, Detroit Tigers: 145 ERA+ and AL-leading 214 innings
15. Anibal Sanchez, P, Detroit Tigers: AL-leading 163 ERA+ dragged down by only 182 innings

16. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins
17. Yu Darvish, P, Texas Rangers
18. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
19. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
20. Hideki Iwakuma, P, Seattle Marinters

2013 Ballot

Batters: start with RA (using value added runs), adjust for park, position and defense (average of UZR and DRS) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

Pitchers: start with RA (using value added runs) adjust for quality of opposition, park, team defense and role (reliever or starter) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

1. Mike Trout 9.44 WARR
2. Andrew McCutcheon 7.84 WARR
3. Miguel Cabrera 7.48 WARR
4. Carlos Gomez 7.45 WARR
5. Clayton Kershaw 7.29 WARR
6. Josh Donaldson 7.16 WARR
7. Robinson Cano 7.07 WARR
8. Paul Goldschmidt 6.93 WARR
9. Chris Davis 6.79 WARR
10. Joey Votto 6.73 WARR
11 Hishashi Iwakuma 6.66 WARR
12. Evan Longoria 6.43 WARR
14. Cliff Lee 6.38 WARR
13. Matt Carpenter 6.38 WARR
15. Jose Fernandez 6.08 WARR

Rest of the top 20
16. Chris Sale
17. Max Scherzer
18. Freddie Freeman
19. Adam Wainwright
20. Troy Tulowitzki

2013 Final MMP Ballot

1-Mike Trout-TBPiBB. Fred Lynn with patience and speed. WS sees his 2013 as the 17th best season by a CF ever, 16th best by WSAB.
2-Andrew McKutcheon-Trout Lite
3-Miggy-Possibly number uno if he doesn’t get hurt and crash the last month. Improves on his Triple Crown numbers with a monster year: 44 HR, 90 BB, .348/.442/.636/1.078, 187 OPS+.
4-Clayton Kershaw-0.915 WHIP, 194 ERA+, 1.83 ERA. Third straight ERA title. Led the league in K’s. Second in IP. He’s kinda good
5-Yadier Molina-I believe in pitch framing. He gains somewhere between 2 and 3 extra WAR for framing which vaults him from his placement on the prelim. The .296/.339/,491, 24 HR, 128 OPS+ and terrific handling of the Cards young staff didn’t hurt. In fact, he’s the one guy I think could be more valuable than Trout-I just can’t quantify it
6-Chris Davis- The out of nowhere season -42 2b, 53 HR, .286/.370/.634/1.004,165 OPS+. Surprisingly is an average base-runner. Poor defense at the lowest position hurts him but 53 homers in this offensive environment is too impressive to ignore
7-Josh Donaldson-The out of nowhere season part duex. Good defense (12 rField)at a premium position ,.301/.384/,499/.883 with a 148 OPS+ in the Mausoleum (93 PF in 2013) places him higher than I expected.
8-Paul Goldschmidt-Beastly year-the best hitter in the NL.36 HR, 99 BB, .302/.401/.551, 160 OPS+, 19 IBB, good fielder (13 rField). 25 DP’s hurt him
9-Carlos Gomez-Another Troutian player (Is this the new mold?) and another out of nowhere season. 4.6 dWAR at CF combined with 24 HR, 40 SB and a 126 OPS+ make for a season in which he did everything well.
10-Robinson Cano-41 2b, 27 HR, .314/.383/.516/.899, 145 OPS+, decent defense (6 rField). Neutral runner. NYS 105 PF hurts him
11-Matt Carpenter-55 2b’s,.318/.392/.481/.873, 143 OPS+, 126 runs, decent base runner, neutral fielder.
12-Joe Votto-24 HR, 135 BB,.305/.435/.491/.926, 154 OPS. 4th straight time leading the league in OBP. 3rd straight in BB. I love watching this guy hit
13-Shin-Soo Choo-21 HR, 112 BB, .285/.423/.462/.885, 143 OPS+, Basically Votto with a little less OBP and bad defense.
14-Cliff Lee-2.87 ERA, 222K, 1.010 WHIP, 133 ERA+, led the league in BB/9 and SO/BB…again
15-Freddy Freeman-Good fielder, neutral baserunner,.319/.396/.501/.897, 144 OPS+, 23 HR.

Rounding out 16-20, in order: Longoria, Iwakuma, Sale, Scherzer , Darvish

It's McCutchen everyone.

Here's my final ballot for 2013:

A few comments: unlike usual, I have made a few adjustments from my prelim ballot.
since I've got less WAR to use than usual I thought pitchers were short changed so I've added a bonus to pitchers. Perhaps I should have added a larger bonus but will leave as is. The other change I made was correcting the spelling from my prelim ballot of McCutchen (woops!)

1 Trout, Mike 10000
2 McCutchen, Andrew 8377
3 Carpenter, Matt 7902
4 Cabrera, Miguel 7857
5 Donaldson, Josh 7791
6 Cano, Robinson 7437
7 Davis, Chris 7432
8 Kershaw, Clayton 7424
9 Goldschmidt, Paul 7238
10 Votto, Joey 6779
11 Molina, Yadier 6707
12 Gomez, Carlos 6658
13 Longoria, Evan 6444
14 Scherzer, Max 6440
15 Wright, David 6359

16 Choo, Shin-Soo 6177
17 Lee, Cliff 6130
18 Freeman, Freddie 6091
19 Mauer, Joe 5932
20 Posey, Buster 5908

14. Cliff Lee 6.38 WARR
13. Matt Carpenter 6.38 WARR
15. Jose Fernandez 6.08 WARR

Do you want them in the numbered order or the listed order? Right now I have them in the numbered order.

Not going to have time to post all the postseason information this year. Sorry. Postseason did make a difference on my final ballot, especially for pitchers.

1) Mike Trout - more bat than Cabrera is all I need
2) Clayton Kershaw - postseason bonus
3) Andrew McCutchen
4) Carlos Gomez - even after regressing his glove
5) Josh Donaldson - yes, his glove makes up for the gap with Cabrera's bat
6) Cliff Lee - totally overlooked his season until I saw the numbers
7) Yadier Molina - postseason bonus
8) Robinson Cano
9) Miguel Cabrera - postseason bonus
10) Max Scherzer - postseason bonus
11) Adam Wainwright - postseason bonus
12) Hisashi Iwakuma
13) Chris Sale
14) Jose Hernandez
15) Anibal Sanchez - postseason bonus

16-25) Andrelton Simmons, Matt Carpenter, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, Manny Machado, David Wright, Joe Mauer, Paul Goldschmidt

I appear to like pitchers more than the consensus.

Hoping for 15 ballots. If anyone wants an extension let me know.

DL #7

Leaving them in numbered order is fine. I had trouble making up my mind so I'm happy that someone helped me out. :-)

DL - I will get the ballot done on time. I wasn't completely sure about that until I read the header and it said the deadline was Jan. 3. That makes a huge difference for me.I had thought it was Jan. 2. My holiday season is always crammed, which is what happens when your birthday is Nov. 20, so your friends all want to celebrate it a week early, to dodge Thanksgiving, and when you have several social groups, all of whom want to hold Thanksgiving and Xmas and New Year parties. - and the yearly Hall of Merit deadline is in December.

There's nothing that anyone can really do about any of this, but sometimes my schedule is so full that even one day makes a huge difference. But, then, I am writing this at 5am on Jan. 1. I have a New Year's Day commitment. Making Jan. 2 would have been seriously hard. Jan. 3, though, essentially doubles my available time to do this. So, thanks! - Brock Hanke

Unchanged from my prelim...using a Win Shares basis, combined FIP and RA for pitchers. I count postseason when applicable.

1. Matt Carpenter
2. Mike Trout
3. Yadier Molina
4. Clayton Kershaw
5. Robinson Cano
6. Andrew McCutchen
7. Miguel Cabrera
8. Choo Shin-Soo
9. Matt Holliday
10. Joey Votto
11. Paul Goldschmidt
12. Chris Davis
13. Josh Donaldson
14. Carlos Santana
15. Andrelton Simmons

Pasted directly from comment #42 of the Discussion Thread.

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Matt Carpenter
4. Mike Trout
5. Chris Davis
6. Max Scherzer
7. Andrew McCutchen
8. Paul Goldschmidt
9. Shin-Soo Choo
10. Yadier Molina
11. Robinson Cano
12. Adam Wainwright
13. Josh Donaldson
14. David Ortiz
15. Dustin Pedroia

This is Brock Hanke's final ballot. As per usual, I'll list the players in order without comments, and then list them with comments. Those of you who tally the votes, just use the first list; the second list is just my reasoning. I probably should say the following: My computer has not been able to get BB-Ref's PI function to work for about a year, so I could not do any sorts. I could look up postseasons, but that's about all the help I could get. BB-Ref's tech support has been great, but they haven't found the problem. I now think that the cause is that my version of the web browser is too old, which is a direct result of the computer being too old. I have the latest of anything that the computer can actually still use. But, in essence, I at least have to upgrade my version of OS/X. And that will likely mean getting a new version of Microsoft Office. That is, I have to save up some money.

For this 2013 ballot, I had the additional problem that there was not the header list, with Win Shares and WAR, that usually gets put up. So I could not start with that, either. The starting point that I did finally decide upon was to just do a "poll of polls" thing to the previous ballots, like Nate Silver did in his political pundit days, just to get a preliminary list of who was where, and who had some consensus and who did not. Mike Trout, for example, had 4 first-place votes, and one each for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. THAT is consensus. Then there's Carlos Gomez, who has 2 votes for 4th, one for 9th, one for 12th, and was not named on the remaining 3 ballots. That is NOT consensus. My main worry was that I would overrate Cardinals, because I get to see more of them than of any other team. However, I only have two Cards on my ballot - Carpenter and Yadi - and the team did go to the World Series of David Ortiz, so I guess I've made appropriate corrections. - Brock Hanke

1. Mike "The Consensus" Trout
2. Andrew McCutchen
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Yadier Molina
5. Clayton Kershaw
6. Matt Carpenter
7. Robinson Cano
8. Josh Donaldson
9. Chris Davis
10. Paul Goldschmidt -
11. Max Scherzer
12. David Ortiz
13. Joey Votto
14. Carlos Gomez
15. Sin-Soo Choo


1. Mike "The Consensus" Trout
2. Andrew McCutchen
3. Miguel Cabrera - some postseason credit
4. Yadier Molina - some small postseason credit, but the real reason for this high a vote comes from watching a lot of the Cardinals, because I live in STL. The Cardinal pitching staff all but collapsed all year long. The team had their closer blow up his arm, and then the backup closer blow up his, finishing the season with a middle reliever closing, and successfully. As for starters, the team was hoping for at least some contribution from Chris Carpenter. Never happened; he retired at the end of the season. The #2 pitcher (#3 if you count Carpenter), Jaime Garcia, went down in midseason. This left them with Adam Wainwright and the Seven Rookies as a pitching staff. They went to the World Series with this. IMO, this is the greatest catching performance I have ever seen. Yadi was, by the end of the year, catching rotation starters than he had probably never even heard of before 2013. And they went to the World Series. I have no idea how Yadi and Mike Matheny held that staff together, but I'm giving Yadi a lot of the credit. Of course, such a patchwork is going to have things they just cannot do - like getting David Ortiz out - but still.
5. Clayton Kershaw - some small postseason credit
6. Matt Carpenter - Possibly the highest ranking we've ever given to a player who lost his position, and will be moved to third base.
7. Robinson Cano
8. Josh Donaldson
9. Chris Davis - a pretty solid consensus, although one voter left him off the ballot entirely.
10. Paul Goldschmidt - another reasonable consensus, except for the two ballots Paul didn't make at all.
11. Max Scherzer - postseason credit
12. David Ortiz - the most postseason credit I've ever given anyone. I saw Lou Brock in the postseason, and he's famous for it. I saw Bob Gibson in the postseason, and he, too is famous for it. I am old enough that I saw all three years for both of them. I've seen Curt Schilling at his best, albeit on TV. But this World Series by Ortiz is, almost without question, the best Series ever posted by anyone. I looked through the encyclopedias, and can't find its better. Without it, David would not be on my ballot at all. And that's not even figuring in that Carlos Beltran made a great over-the-wall catch to rob Ortiz of a Grand Slam, which turned into a SF if I remember right. So, take a look at Ortiz' WS stats, but add one run scored, one hit, one homer, and 3 RBI (he did get one RBI for the SF). Surely that's at least mildly impressive.
13. Joey Votto - 4 tenth spots, one 12th, and was left off of 2 ballots entirely. I'm not sure whether to call this a consensus or not, so I dropped him a slot below the lowest vote that he did get, because you have to figure that the two people who left him off entirely, would have dragged his ranking down if they had listed that far down.
14. Carlos Gomez - wild lack of consensus, but the people who rank him highly, do rank him REALLY highly (4th on two ballots).
15. Sin-Soo Choo - I really really wanted to vote for Captain Marvel, Jr. (for those of you who don't follow superhero comics, Captain Marvel Jr.'s secret identity is "Freddie Freeman"), but I simply could not justify it. It's like "Steve Rogers." How did Captain America end up playing his whole career for Canadian teams, anyhow? I blame Bud Selig, but, then, I do that a lot.

It looks like I'll be able to get in a ballot this time, but I'm not sure I'll make the 4pm EST close. It depends on how the rest of my day goes.

I only have 8 ballots. I can push the close until next Monday.

I did this in much the same way as I did the HOM Ballot, with bWAA as the base number. I gave bonuses for postseason heroics, catching, big regular season for position players and dominant pitching peripherals based on Fangraphs FIP-. I made adjustments for defense, preferring UZR over DRS and league strength.

1) Mike Trout -- Easily the best player in baseball
2) Andrew McCutchen -- Best regular season of any NL player
3) Max Scherzer -- Boosted by outstanding FIP- and postseason
4) Clayton Kershaw -- Best regular season pitcher
5) Shane Victorino -- Excellent season and postseason
6) David Ortiz -- Good season and amazing postseason
7) Josh Donaldson -- Great regular season
8) Justin Verlander -- Good season and amazing postseason (shakes fist)
9) Miguel Cabrera -- best hitter in baseball but terrible defense and mediocre postseason
10) Anibal Sanchez -- Boosted by dominant FIP-
11) Cliff Lee -- Great results, very good peripherals, no support
12) Yadier Molina -- Catcher bonus, good postseason
13) Robinson Cano -- Great hitter at a defensive position
14) Carlos Gomez -- Good offense, fantastic defense but UZR<DRS
15) Adam Wainwright -- Excellent results, excellent FIP-, good postseason

Ballot is officially extended to next Monday, same time.

DL - I think the extension was a great call. EVerything I've heard is calling this a "short" holiday retail season, and I admit it was tough to get it all done in time. A week's extension is probably all that some of the regular voters need.

Also, someone (Ivan, above) ranked David Ortiz even higher than I did, so I feel much less queasy than I had, because someone else ranks him that high on the basis of his postseason. I was afraid that my Cardinal rooting had magnified Ortiz' postseason in my head.

Speaking of whom, Ivan, can you tell me what FIP- is? I know what FIP is, and I'm also aware that there is some serious debate over whether to replace many of the "+" stats with "-." But I don't have firm hold yet on exactly what "-" means. Thanks in advance - Brock Hanke

I know my name isn't Ivan, but I will try to explain. ERA+ (as you know) is the ratio of leagueERA/pitERA. ERA+ tells us how many times greater the league ERA is compared to the pitcher ERA (the bigger the better).

ERA- is the ratio of pitcher ERA to the league ERA. (the smaller the better).

Example: League ERA is 4. Pitcher ERA is 3.

ERA+ is 4/3 = 1.33. The league ERA is 1.33 times higher than the pitcher's.

ERA- is 3/4 =.75 The pitcher's ERA is 75% of the league ERA or the pitcher's ERA is 25% better than the league's.

If anyone sees any errors in my explanation, please add to my explanation.

Sorry for the delay. Family matters intervened late on Friday afternoon to force a hiatus in ballot construction, and then a few hours later a Diamond Mind league I belong to swung into action, so I've been dealing with that and writing out my ballot at the same time.

My ballot starts from my own calculation of wOBA, for both batters and pitchers. For batters I converted this number to Wins and to a wRC value. I then looked at three different measures of fielding — Fielding Win Shares Above Bench, UZR and BPro FRAA. For UZR and FRAA I only used a third of the run value to account for the contribution made by pitchers to team defence. (As Mike Emeigh has pointed out, most systems of fielding runs give full credit to a BIP out to the fielder, which benefits pitching value too much.) I use the ranks generated by this analysis to arrange a shortlist of the top 15 hitters. For pitchers, I use their batting-against stats and convert that to a wRC value. I merge the list of top pitchers with the batters on the basis of wRC values. I use the post-season mostly as a tie-breaker or when totals are close.

1) Max Scherzer — His dominance was at an historic level. For the first half of the season, writing his name in as the starter virtually guaranteed a win. My wRC calculation puts him all of three runs behind Trout, but postseason credit carries him ahead.
2) Mike Trout
3) Andrew McCutchen
4) Miguel Cabrera — My system placed these three quite close, and a lot depends on how I weight different components. Cabrera is without doubt the best batter. Last year, park effects carried Trout ahead of Cabrera, but this year it was really the effects of Cabrera trying to play third with an injury. FRAA curiously thinks very poorly of McCutchen's fielding, where FWSAB and UZR think he was very good.
5) Clayton Kershaw — The best pitcher in the National League doesn't look quite as good as Scherzer because of the better offensive environment in the AL. Had I ranked Cabrera ahead of McCutchen, I would probably have ranked Kershaw in between them.
6) Chris Sale — Where Kershaw gets docked rankings for pitching in the NL, Sale's numbers get extra credit in the AL offensive context, especially in hitter's-haven 'New Comiskey'. I have the AL almost a run worse for pitchers.
7) Buster Posey — Despite a marked come-down from 2012, Posey's 2013 season occurred in a context of a relative fall-back of all NL catchers, offensively. That ensures him getting a mid-level rank on my ballot.
8) Paul Goldschmidt — One of my favourite younger players, 'Goldy' earned black ink in home runs and RBIs. And he seems to be a good fielder, as well.
9) Chris Davis — Ranked a bit lower than I anticipated. It doesn't help that FRAA sees him as almost as bad a fielder as Cabrera, who finally lived down to 2012 expectations.
10) Matt Carpenter
11) Robinson Cano — These two secondbasemen are in a virtual tie. Cano beats Carpenter in FWSAB; that outcome is reversed using FRAA. UZR puts them in a dead heat. I gave Carpenter the advantage because of his post-season value.
12) Manny Machado
13) Josh Donaldson — Machado's ranking ahead of Donaldson is almost entirely a creation of fielding metrics. The value of his fielding, however, consistently puts him ahead of the A's third-sacker on all three measures.
14) Anibal Sanchez — Sneaks on the ballot, thanks to his ERA title.
15) Yadier Molina — Beats out David Ortiz because he plays in the field. I have them effectively of the same value, but I favour the more rounded contribution.

Also, David Wright easily ranked between Goldschmidt and Davis, but I left him off because he did not qualify for rate stats, according to BB-ref. I was completely oblivious to his fine season while it was happening.

Voted 2012, not 2013 - Rob Wood, John Murphy
Voted 1988, not 2013 - Tubbs, John Murphy, caiman, EricC, rudygamble

Prelim from Voxter, caiman, Moeball but no ballot.

2013 MMP Ballot (no postseason bonuses):

1) Mike Trout: Best ML player and AL center fielder.
2) Miguel Cabrera: Best ML third baseman (very close to being the top ML player).
3) Matt Carpenter: Best ML second baseman.
4) Shin-Soo Choo: Best NL center fielder.
5) Andrew McCutchen:
6) David Wright: Best NL third baseman.
7) Yadier Molina: Best ML catcher.
8) Chris Davis: Best ML first baseman.
9) Josh Donaldson:
10) Robinson Cano: Best AL second baseman.
11) Paul Goldschmidt: Best NL first baseman.
12) Joey Votto:
13) Freddie Freeman:
14) Evan Longoria:
15) Max Scherzer: Best ML pitcher.

Happy New Year, guys!

Balloting is closed. Not sure why Moeball keeps posting prelims and not a final ballot.

Murphy - no Kershaw?

Speaking of whom, Ivan, can you tell me what FIP- is? I know what FIP is, and I'm also aware that there is some serious debate over whether to replace many of the "+" stats with "-." But I don't have firm hold yet on exactly what "-" means. Thanks in advance

My understanding is that FIP- is Pitcher FIP/League FIP. I used the version that is park and league adjusted as provided by Fangraphs, as explained here
I use it to give a bonus to pitchers with excellent peripherals, in addition to excellent RA as used by Baseball-Reference. I use WAA, which is based on RA, since runs allowed is the bottom line and pitcher control over BABIP and HR/FB is a controversial topic which has not yet been resolved. OTOH a pitcher with lots of Ks and few BBs probably pitched better than one with few Ks and lots of BBs and the same RA. Baseball Reference supposedly makes some adjustment for defense, so the "FIP- Bonus" I use is only used for pitchers with a really excellent FIP-, and not everyone. I readily admit that this is not an exact science.