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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Tuesday, October 18, 2016Most Meritorious Player: 2016 DiscussionMost Meritorious Player: 2016 Discussion Vote for 15 Player BBGauge WAR Mike Trout 7.9 Mookie Betts 6.0 Kris Bryant 7.2 Jose Altuve 5.2 Josh Donaldson 6.4 Robinson Cano 7.1 Kyle Seager 7.1 Manny Machado 6.4 Adam Eaton 6.2 Nolan Arenado 5.7 Brian Dozier 5.0 Ian Kinsler 5.7 Rougned Odor 5.3 Danny Murphy 4.9 Freddy Freeman 4.9 Anthony Rizzo 4.9 Jean Segura 4.2 Yoenis Cespedes 4.6 Christian Yelich 3.7 Corey Seager 5.0 Adrian Beltre 3.6 Justin Turner 4.6 Evan Longoria 5.0 Charlie Blackmon 4.0 Dexter Fowler 4.3 George Springer 4.5 Paul Goldschmidt 4.9 David Ortiz 4.7 Joey Votto 5.3 Miguel Cabrera 5.6 Kevin Kiermaier 4.1 Brandon Crawford 4.1 Francisco Lindor 4.4 Carlos Correa 5.0 Jonathan Villar 5.5 Nelson Cruz 4.7 Addison Russell 3.7 Wilson Ramos 5.0 Buster Posey 4.7 Jonathan Lucroy 3.7 Russell Martin 3.6 Salvador Perez 3.0 Pitcher BBGauge WAR Clayton Kershaw 6.6 Max Scherzer 6.7 Noah Syndergaard 5.9 Justin Verlander 6.6 Madison Bumgarner 5.9 Carlos Martinez 5.8 Corey Kluber 5.6 Masahiro Tanaka 5.3 Johnny Cueto 5.6 Jose Quintana 5.6 Chris Sale 5.5 Rick Porcello 5.9 Tanner Roark 6.0 Cole Hamels 4.5 John Lester 6.1 Michael Fulmer 4.4 Aaron Sanchez 5.4 Kyle Hendricks 5.6 Julio Teheran 4.7 JA Happ 5.2 Jake Arrieta 4.8 Jose Fernandez 5.2 Carlos Martinez 5.8 David Price 4.1 Zach Britton 4.4 Andrew Miller 3.9 Mark Melancon 3.4 Chris Devenski 3.7 Kenley Jansen 3.2
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1. DL from MN Posted: October 18, 2016 at 11:14 AM (#5326910)I haven't voted in a while so here's some explanation:
I use various "uber stats" and merge them together into one number. I use 3 WARs (baseball reference, fangraphs, and baseball gauge) as well as win shares and win shares above bench.
I do have a (slight) catcher bonus.
Here's my top 25
1 TROUT, MIKE 10000
2 BRYANT, KRIS 8536
3 CANO, ROBINSON 7801
4 BETTS, MOOKIE 7797
5 ALTUVE, JOSE 7665
6 DONALDSON, JOSH 7664
7 SEAGER, KYLE 7145
8 MACHADO, MANNY 7140
9 FREEMAN, FREDDIE 6840
10 SEAGER, COREY 6816
11 KINSLER, IAN 6580
12 VOTTO, JOEY 6560
13 BELTRE, ADRIAN 6458
14 MURPHY, DANIEL 6423
15 SCHERZER, MAX 6351
16 EATON, ADAM 6348
17 CABRERA, MIGUEL 6300
18 RIZZO, ANTHONY 6261
19 DOZIER, BRIAN 6255
20 VERLANDER, JUSTIN 6222
21 KERSHAW, CLAYTON 6096
22 SYNDEGAARD, NOAH 6086
23 ARENADO, NOLAN 5926
24 BUMGARNER, MADISON 5876
25 KLUBER, COREY 5845
The only change I have made in my evaluation method for 2016 is in the defense . Because batting ball data is now available, I have used DRS for 2016 rather than DRA to evaluate defense.
C Buster Posey - No real competition
1B Freddie Freeman- very close between Freeman and Rizzo. Freeman was just enough better offensively
2B Daniel Murphy - Even with the poorer defensive numbers, Murphy's offense was good enough to keep him slightly ahead of Segura
3B Nolan Arenado - Slightly better offense than Bryant; Both good defensively , but Arenado about a win better.
SS Corey Seager - best offensive shortstop, but Crawford's defense made a good fight out of the SS position
LF - Adam Duvall - Much better defense give him a slight edge on Christian Yelich
CF - Dexter Fowler - Just enough better defensively to beat out Blockman
RF - Christian Yelich - Stephen Piscotty was the best right fielder, but was .75 wins lower than Yelich so even though he plays LF, I gave him the all star
SP Max Scherzer
Clayton Kershaw
Noah Syndengaard
Carlos Martinez
Jon Lester
RP Mark Melancon
Seung-Hwa Oh
Kanley Jansen
The American League will follow in a couple of days.
C Matt Wieters Best of relatively weak class. Gary Sanchez was the runner up with only 229 PA
1B Miguel Cabrera
2B Robinson Cano Although Altuve had the superior offensive numbers, Cabno's defensive contibutions gave him the edge as the all star
3B Josh Donaldson Four of my top 6 rated position players were 3B. Donaldson's offense gave him the nod over the superior fielding of Machado, Beltre,and Seager.
SS Carlos Correa Correa's significantly better offense kept him ahead of Lindor's much better defense.
RF Mookie Betts best offensive and defensive RF. Well ahead of Eaton; the runner up
CF Mike Trout Twenty-five runs ahead of anyone else offensively, an above average fielder. No question as to who is best.
LF Adam Eaton Gardner was the best LF, but Eaton is about 2.5 wins better as a RF.
DH David Ortiz What more can I say?
SP
John Verlander
Corey Kluber
Mashiro Tanaka
Chris Sale
Jose Qunitana
RP
Andrew Miller
Ryan Dull
Closer Zach Britton
Preliminary Ballot
1. Mike Trout 9.5 WARR
2. Mookie Betts 8.06
3. Nolan Arenado 7.27 WARR
4. Josh Donaldson 6.59 WARR
5 Manny Machado 6.36 WARR
6. Justin Verlander 6.31 WARR
7. Kris Bryant 6.27 WARR
8. Max Scherzer 6.15 WARR
9. Adrian Beltre 6.14 WARR
10. Clayton Kershaw 6.07 WARR
11. Kyle Seager 5.99 WARR
12. Robinson Cano 5.96 WARR
13. David Ortiz 5.94 WARR
14. Noah Syndergaard 5.71 WARR
15. Freddie Freeman 5.68 WARR
Rest of the top 20
Anthony Rizzo
Jose Altuve
Carlos Martinez
Corey Kluber
Jon Lester
http://www.seamheads.com/baseballgauge/year.php?yearID=2016
1) Mike Trout - about 20 runs better on offense than anyone
2) Mookie Betts - outstanding glove, great baserunning
3) Jose Altuve - solid bat
4) Kris Bryant - better fielder than I thought
5) Josh Donaldson
6) Robinson Cano
7) Corey Seager
8) Manny Machado
9) Justin Verlander - top pitcher
10) Kyle Seager
11) Corey Kluber - no postseason credit yet
12) Brian Dozier
13) Max Scherzer
14) Adrian Beltre
15) Carlos Correa
16-20) Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, Ian Kinsler, Clayton Kershaw, Jean Segura
21-25) Adam Eaton, Buster Posey, Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Martinez, Freddie Freeman
1. Mike Trout - no contest
2. Kris Bryant - post-season bonus
3. Josh Donaldson
4. Jose Altuve
5. Mookie Betts
6. Freddie Freeman
7. Robinson Cano
8. Corey Seager
9. Manny Machado
10. Brian Dozier
11. Daniel Murphy
12. Joey Votto
13. Adrian Beltre
14. Justin Verlander - 11K/9 and 1.96 ERA in second half; 2nd in MLB in Ks with 254
15. Francisco Lindor - post-season bonus
1. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels: ho hum, just another incredible season from the modern Willie Mays
2. Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros: I actually had Altuve ahead of Trout midway through the season but a second half swoon drops Jose all the way to second place
3. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs: third in NL OPS+ but added solid defense and defensive flexibility
4. Kyle Hendricks, P, Chicago Cubs: Led the majors in ERA+ by a full 24 points; more IP might have pushed him past his teammate for tops in the NL
5. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays: top five in AL in OPS+ and RC
6. Mookie Betts, RF, Boston Red Sox: only a 131 OPS+ but makes up a lot of ground with his glove (+32) and his feet (+9)
7. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves: 157 OPS+ was 2nd in NL and +9 fielding was Gold Glove worthy
8. Daniel Murphy, 2B, Washington Nationals: 4th in NL OPS+ with 157 but -11 fielding drops him back a bit
9. Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners: +11 fielding for the old guy to go with 138 OPS+
10. Madison Bumgarner, P, San Francisco Giants: 226 IP with a top 4 ERA+ of 149
11. Jon Lester, P, Chicago Cubs: better ERA+ than Bumgarner (164) but also fewer IP (202)
12. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: one of the all-time great rookie seasons
13. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies: +20 fielding to go with top ten OPS+
14. David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox: the best pure bat in the AL; 2nd to Trout with a 162 OPS+
15. Max Scherzer, P, Washington Nationals: not much daylight between Bumgarner, Lester and Scherzer
16. Corey Kluber, P, Cleveland Indians: best pitcher in the AL
17. Rick Porcello, P, Boston Red Sox: I was wrong about Porcello
18. Brian Dozier, 2B, Minnesota Twins
19. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: gave back a lot of value on defense
20. Tanner Roark, P, Washington Nationals
21. Justin Verlander, P, Detroit Tigerts
22. Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners: is this the best brother combo since Joe & Dom DiMaggio?
23. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
24. Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
25. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
Andrew Miller is my reliever of the year but he won't make the ballot.
"retrosheet has not published the play-by-play data yet! can't do an evaluation."
When did retrosheet publish 2015 data? How long would I need to keep the ballot open to get this data as part of the analysis?
1) M. Trout, 11.0 - in a league of his own
2) K. Bryant, 9.3
3) C. Seager, 8.34
4) M. Betts, 8.25
5) J. Donaldson, 7.8
6) B. Crawford, 7.01
7) F. Freeman, 6.97
8) J. Turner, 6.92
9) F. Lindor, 6.90
10) M. Machado, 6.61
11) C. Kershaw, 6.59 - Wow, 1st pitcher at 11!
12) D. Murphy, 6.58
13) N. Arenado, 6.4
14) C. Correa, 6.3
15) R. Cano, 6.2
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