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Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Most Meritorious Player: 2020 Discussion

The Dodgers prevailed over the Tampa Bay Rays in an offseason that was nearly half as long as the regular season.

Vote for 15.

Player			bWAR
Mookie Betts		3.4
Jose Ramirez		2.2
Freddie Freeman		2.9
Fernando Tatis Jr	2.5
Anthony Rendon		1.8
Trea Turner		2.2
Mike Yastrzemski	2.5
Jose Abreu		2.8
Mike Trout		1.6
Manny Machado		2.8
Marcell Ozuna		2.3
DJ LeMahieu		2.8
Trevor Story		2.1
Juan Soto		2.1
Ronald Acuna Jr		2.1
Brandon Lowe		2.1
Trent Grisham		2.2
Tim Anderson		2.2
Dansby Swanson		2.6
Paul Goldschmidt	1.7
Michael Conforto	2.0
Nelson Cruz		1.6
George Springer		1.9
Wil Myers		1.5
Cesar Hernandez		1.5
Xander Bogaerts		1.3
Ian Happ		1.1
Corey Seager		1.9
Kole Calhoun		1.0
Dominic Smith		1.7
Luke Voit		1.5
Mark Canha		1.4
Francisco Lindor	0.8
JT Realmuto		1.2
Yasmani Grandal		0.6
Kyle Lewis		1.4
Eloy Jimenez		1.1
Yoan Moncada		0.5
Salvador Perez		1.9
Randy Arozarena		0.8

Pitcher 		bWAR
Shane Bieber		3.3
Max Fried		3.0
Yu Darvish		2.7
Jacob deGrom		2.6
Trevor Bauer		2.7
Dinelson Lamet		2.4
Luis Castillo		1.0
German Marquez		1.7
Gerritt Cole		2.2
Zack Greinke		1.2
Antonio Senzatela	2.8
Kenta Maeda		1.6
Brandon Woodruff	2.1
Framber Valdez		1.2
Aaron Nola		2.2
Dylan Bundy		1.8
Marco Gonzales		1.5
Lucas Giolito		0.8
Zack Wheeler		2.9
Hyun-Jin Ryu		3.0
Kyle Hendricks		1.9
Max Scherzer		2.2
Dallas Keuchel		2.1
Zac Gallen		2.7
Zach Plesac		2.1
Chris Bassitt		2.1

 

DL from MN Posted: November 10, 2020 at 09:05 AM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: November 10, 2020 at 09:26 AM (#5988048)
This season has been a struggle to find numbers I trust. I put baseball reference WAR above but tried to include people who were shortchanged by those numbers.
   2. kcgard2 Posted: November 10, 2020 at 06:03 PM (#5988166)
Definitely a weird season and difficult to judge. For the sake of arranging my thoughts, here's a prelim. One of the tie-breakers in close cases for me was games played/innings pitched. In a shortened season, two weak games at the plate or one bad pitching outing could have moved a guy from close to 20+ spots farther back. So all the guys in my top 10 played 55+ games or pitched essentially 70+ innings.

1) Shane Bieber - I feel like the pitching performances that were put up this year are deserving of the top spot. Bieber's season was crazy - we see what starters can do when they know ahead of time they won't be tasked with large workloads and have loads more like relievers. Still more impressive of course because they're still going 6+ innings a turn and multiple times through orders. Bieber's K% was over 41% - the greatest mark ever for a starter (11th best all time of any pitcher with 70 innings), the 34% K-BB% is tied for best ever by a starter (10th all time). Of course these things are easier when a starter has less than 80 innings to pitch. Still, Bieber's season was crazy.
2) José Ramírez - one of the best hitters in baseball who played solid 3B defense
3) Freddie Freeman - best hitter in MLB (apart form Juan Soto who missed a quarter of the season)
4) Trevor Bauer - another pitcher who knew he could go all out all season.
5) Mookie Betts - behind Ramirez as a hitter and defender, corner OF vs 3B
6) Yu Darvish
7) Dinelson Lamet
8) Fernando Tatís, Jr. - SS with outstanding offense
9) Trea Turner - same
10) José Abreu

11-20) Manny Machado, Jacob DeGrom, Luis Castillo, DJ LeMahieu, Marcell Ozuna, Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kyle Hendricks, Brandon Lowe

I also think there's legitimately 10-15 players I didn't list who could maybe have an argument to be in the top 20 somewhere.
   3. sgt23 Posted: November 11, 2020 at 06:47 PM (#5988362)
When will the Ryan Thibodeaux Hall of Fame watch list be posted or will there be one this year?
   4. DL from MN Posted: November 12, 2020 at 09:00 AM (#5988432)
When will the Ryan Thibodeaux Hall of Fame watch list be posted or will there be one this year?


We don't run that at Hall of Merit but you did remind me that we should run a mock ballot. No VC vote this year so it would just be the modern players in December.
   5. bjhanke Posted: November 13, 2020 at 10:07 AM (#5988573)
I hate to say this, but I will not vote in this year's election, because I just have no way to approach this season. Sorry, but 2020 has just beaten me. I have no idea what to try.
   6. sgt23 Posted: November 13, 2020 at 10:37 AM (#5988577)
We don't run that at Hall of Merit but you did remind me that we should run a mock ballot. No VC vote this year so it would just be the modern players in December.



Thank you, it just seems this was posted earlier most years.
   7. DanG Posted: November 13, 2020 at 11:10 AM (#5988583)
Thibs posts his HOF tracker when the BBWAA announces the ballot. If the Hall is consistent with last year, that will be on Monday, 11/16/20. BB-Ref has the potential ballot here, although there won't be all of the 24 first-year candidates they list, more like 16 or 17 will make it.

I run a mock screening committee every year.
   8. TJ Posted: November 13, 2020 at 11:48 AM (#5988598)
Thins’ twitter feed has a link to the tracker with a tab for this year’s election. Just no players listed until the ballot comes out...
   9. DL from MN Posted: November 16, 2020 at 10:54 AM (#5988936)
2020 Prelim

1) Mookie Betts - adding postseason makes a big difference this year
2) Shane Bieber - best pitcher
3) Max Fried - my ballot is going to be very pitcher heavy this season. Bats were not very impressive.
4) Hyun-Jin Ryu
5) Trevor Bauer
6) Zach Wheeler
7) Freddie Freeman - best bat
8) DJ LeMahieu
9) Antonio Senzatela
10) Manny Machado
11) Yu Darvish
12) Fernando Tatis Jr
13) Zac Gallen
14) Jose Ramirez
15) Dansby Swanson - this is mostly glove, not sure whether to trust it

16-20) Jacob deGrom, Trea Turner, Mike Yastrzemski, Dinelson Lamet, Corey Seager, Tim Anderson
21-25) Jose Abreu, Trevor Story, Aaron Nola, Max Scherzer, Ronald Acuna Jr, Brandon Lowe


   10. DL from MN Posted: November 16, 2020 at 04:52 PM (#5989081)
The defensive rating of Jose Ramirez is very different between Fangraphs and BBREF. Any comments?
   11. Yardape Posted: November 16, 2020 at 05:52 PM (#5989095)
Prelim ballot. Tough year to figure out, it's true, so I'm not super confident in this order. Except for Freeman.

1. Freddie Freeman - Best bat, pretty good in a deep postseason run.
2. Trevor Bauer - Best pitcher.
3. Jose Ramirez - Even with just OK defense, that bat at that position is pretty valuable.
4. Jose Abreu
5. Mookie Betts - I don't quite believe in all the defensive numbers, playoff highlights aside.
6. Yu Darvish
7. Shane Bieber - Disastrous postseason start pushes him down. I know it's only one start, but in this season that's a pretty good percentage of the total.
8. Marcell Ozuna
9. Corey Seager - Wasn't close to ballot before the playoffs, but a great run (and with the relative length again) pushes him onto ballot.
10. Juan Soto - Best rate hitter. If he had played a full (60 game) season (or close) and maintained his rate, he would have won easily.

Just missing: Trea Turner, Fernando Tatis Jr., Mike Trout, DJ LeMahieu, Ronald Acuna Jr., Max Fried

As with kcgard2, things are pretty bunched and there are a lot of players who are not far off ballot.
   12. DL from MN Posted: November 16, 2020 at 06:10 PM (#5989101)
FYI - 2020 is a vote for 15 year
   13. Yardape Posted: November 19, 2020 at 12:12 AM (#5989855)
FYI - 2020 is a vote for 15 year


Well, in that case:

1. Freddie Freeman
2. Trevor Bauer
3. Jose Ramirez
4. Jose Abreu
5. Mookie Betts
6. Yu Darvish
7. Shane Bieber
8. Marcell Ozuna
9. Corey Seager
10. Juan Soto
11. Trea Turner
12. DJ LeMahieu
13. Fernando Tatis, Jr.
14. Mike Trout
15. Max Fried

Now, just missing: Ronald Acuna Jr., Dinelson Lamet, Mike Yastrzemski, Dansby Swanson, Randy Arozarena, Kenta Maeda

   14. MrC. Posted: November 19, 2020 at 02:42 PM (#5989981)
2020 Preliminary

As has been mentioned by others, it is very difficult to make a good evaluation of player value: with small samples, partitioning of leagues into separate disconnected sections etc...

Anyway, I did my best.

1. Mookie Betts 3.77 WARR
2. Freddie Freeman 3.30 WARR
3. Mike Yastrzemski 3-18 WARR
4. Jose Abreu 3.10 WARR
5. Shane Bieber 3.09 WARR
6. Max Fried 3.08 WARR
7. Chris Taylor 2.96 WARR
8. Dansby Swanson 2.94 WARR
9. Trevor Bauer 2.83 WARR
10. Fernando Tatis Jr 2.73 WARR
11. Manny Machado 2.68 WARR
12. Juan Soto 2.64 WARR
13. Lance Lynn 2.52 WARR
14. Hyun-Jin Ryu 2.52 WARR
15. Zac Gallen 2.43 WARR

Rest of the top 20
16. Gavin Biggio
17. Jose Ramirez
18. Marcell Ozuna
19. Jacob DeGroam
20. Zach Wheeler

   15. kcgard2 Posted: November 19, 2020 at 06:19 PM (#5990035)
The defensive rating of Jose Ramirez is very different between Fangraphs and BBREF. Any comments?

I believe there's a consensus/it's known that FG's defensive measures are more reliable than BBRef's. Before 2003 they are the same source, but of course here we are talking about post-2003.

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