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Wednesday, October 19, 2022

Most Meritorious Player: 2022 Discussion

Player Name	bWAR
Aaron Judge	10.6
JT Realmuto	6.5
Nolan Arenado	7.9
Andres Gimenez	7.2
Manny Machado	6.8
Paul Goldschmidt	7.8
Adley Rutschman	5.2
Tommy Edman	6.3
Mike Trout	6.3
Austin Riley	6.5
Dansby Swanson	5.7
Francisco Lindor	5.4
Julio Rodriguez	6
Yordan Alvarez	6.8
Xander Bogaerts	5.7
Mookie Betts	6.4
Jose Ramirez	6
Jeff McNeil	5.7
Carlos Correa	5.4
Jose Altuve	5.1
Marcus Semien	5.7
Michael Harris	5.3
Trea Turner	4.9
Freddie Freeman	5.9
Brandon Nimmo	5
Ha-Seong Kim	4.9
Will Smith	4.1
Jeremy Pena	4.8
Nico Hoerner	4.5
Steven Kwan	5.5
Juan Soto	5.6
Willy Adames	4.4
Daulton Varsho	4.9
Alex Bregman	4.5
Sean Murphy	3.5
Rafael Devers	4.4
Kyle Tucker	5.2
Corey Seager	4.1
KeBryan Hayes	4.3
Jake Cronenworth	4.1
Christian Walker	5.1
Brendan Rogers	4.4
Luis Arraez	4.4
Pete Alonso	4.4
Ian Happ	4.3
Jose Abreu	4.2
Shohei Ohtani	3.4
	
Pitcher Name	bWAR
Sandy Alcantara	8.1
Dylan Cease	6.4
Shohei Ohtani	6.1
Justin Verlander	5.9
Aaron Nola	6
Max Fried	5.9
Alek Manoah	5.9
Carlos Rodon	5.4
Max Scherzer	5.3
Zack Wheeler	5
Zac Gallen	5.1
Martin Perez	5
Julio Urias	4.9
Tony Gonsolin	4.6
Logan Webb	4.8
Brady Singer	4.5
Yu Darvish	4.5
Tyler Anderson	4.3
Nestor Cortes	4.2
Luis Castillo	4.1
Shane McClanahan	4
Corbin Burnes	4.1
Triston McKenzie	4
Daniel Bard	3.8
DL from MN Posted: October 19, 2022 at 02:45 PM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: October 19, 2022 at 03:24 PM (#6101667)
I'll try to get the leaderboard added this weekend. I figured we could get the discussion thread up though. Judge v. Ohtani should lead to some good analysis.
   2. kcgard2 Posted: October 19, 2022 at 05:11 PM (#6101699)
Prelim:

1. Aaron Judge - his hitting domination was so far ahead of the rest of baseball that I think he's the clear #1
2. Shohei Ohtani - I also think he's the very clear #2
3. Nolan Arenado - and immediately after the top two it gets really difficult. The entire rest of this list could really go in any almost order probably
4. Manny Machado
5. Paul Goldschmidt
6. Sandy Alcantara - 55 more innings than Verlander (and 10% more innings than even the #2 pitcher in MLB) and nearly the top in ERA as well
7. Freddie Freeman
8. Yordan Alvarez - if he hadn't missed time he might be as high as #3 if he sustained the production
9. Francisco Lindor
10. Justin Verlander

11. Mookie Betts
12. JT Realmuto
13. Jose Ramirez
14. Andres Gimenez
15. Dansby Swanson

16. Trea Turner
17. Max Fried
18. Aaron Nola
19. Xander Bogaerts
20. Jose Altuve
   3. DL from MN Posted: October 20, 2022 at 06:31 PM (#6101864)
2022 Prelim

1) Aaron Judge
2) Shohei Ohtani - I predict a lot of ballots starting like this
3) JT Realmuto - catcher bonus is real here, this is why the Phillies are in the playoffs
4) Sandy Alcantara - lots of innings, is that still allowed?
5) Nolan Arenado - outstanding defensive season
6) Andres Gimenez
7) Manny Machado
8) Paul Goldschmidt
9) Adley Rutschman
10) Dylan Cease
11) Tommy Edman
12) Mike Trout
13) Austin Riley
14) Dansby Swanson
15) Francisco Lindor

16-20) Julio Rodriguez, Yordan Alvarez, Justin Verlander, Xander Bogaerts, Aaron Nola
21-25) Max Fried, Alek Manoah, Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, Jeff McNeil
   4. DL from MN Posted: October 21, 2022 at 12:53 PM (#6101964)
Yordan Alvarez has probably hit his way on the the ballot and Nola has enough postseason bonus to make it on ballot as well.
   5. progrockfan Posted: October 21, 2022 at 12:55 PM (#6101965)
I probably won't have time to participate fully in this vote, with the deep analysis that proper participation requires. I just wanted to say:

A 15-win, 2.33 ERA, 172 ERA+, 1.012 WHIP starter with 219 Ks in 166 innings is a great pitcher.

A 15-win, 2.33 ERA, 172 ERA+, 1.012 WHIP starter with 219 Ks in 166 innings who hits 34 home runs is freakin' Superman.

Judge's 211 OPS+ season was beyond brilliant. But there are historical precedents. For what Ohtani did, there are none.

For me, it would be Ohtani over Judge in a draft, Ohtani over Judge in a Rotisserie league, and Ohtani over Judge for 2022 MMP.

I recognize and acknowledge that my position will likely be a minority view. Just wanted to chip in with my 2ยข worth.

   6. DL from MN Posted: October 21, 2022 at 12:59 PM (#6101967)
I have Judge as the best season by a position player since Mookie Betts in 2018 but you have to go back to Bonds in 2004 to find a better season at the plate.
   7. kcgard2 Posted: October 21, 2022 at 01:47 PM (#6101977)
If we say integration was wrapped up by 1960, the only precedents for what Judge just did are Bonds and McGwire. Both of course roided to the gills in the sillyball era before illegal pitching substances were ubiquitous. Which is as near as I can come to saying there really is not precedent for Judge did.
   8. DL from MN Posted: October 24, 2022 at 11:42 AM (#6102334)
really is not precedent for Judge did


Looking over the OPS+ leaderboard - Soto had his monster season in just 60 games, doesn't count

Frank Thomas 1994 was pretty awesome - .729 SLG but Bagwell had a .750 SLG that same season

Judge is more impressive than Schmidt in 1980. If you ignore Bonds, Sosa and McGwire I think you have to go back to 1956 Mantle to see something similar.
   9. progrockfan Posted: October 24, 2022 at 12:18 PM (#6102344)
@: "If you ignore Bonds, Sosa and McGwire I think you have to go back to 1956 Mantle to see something similar."

Considering that all three are enshrined in the HoM, I can't agree that it's appropriate to "ignore Bonds, Sosa and McGwire" in this discussion.

Still, for the sake of argument, let's buy the central proposition - and even if we do, I repeat:

There is historical precedent for what Judge did, however infrequent - and there is no historical precedent for what Ohtani did.

That, to me, is worth a whole big bunch of Merit. Just sayin'.
   10. DL from MN Posted: October 25, 2022 at 12:29 PM (#6102527)
There is historical precedent

1956 MMP - Mickey Mantle
1996 MMP - Barry Bonds
1998 MMP - Mark McGwire
2002 MMP - Barry Bonds
2004 MMP - Barry Bonds

When you put up an offensive season like Judge did you win the MMP.
   11. DL from MN Posted: October 25, 2022 at 12:45 PM (#6102529)
RE Realmuto: I have this as the best season by a catcher since Joe Mauer in 2009. This is the 5th season in a row he's been the best catcher in baseball.
   12. progrockfan Posted: October 25, 2022 at 12:50 PM (#6102531)
@: "When you put up an offensive season like Judge did you win the MMP."

True. But none of those guys had to contend with a season like Ohtani's - because there has never been a season like Ohtani's before.

As I've acknowledged, I know it's a minority view - but I'm sticking with it.
   13. John Northey Posted: November 02, 2022 at 09:57 AM (#6103684)
It is a good battle - Ohtani was unique, an ace and a slugger. Over 9 WAR combined. A 145 OPS+ and a 172 ERA+. Judge was over 10 WAR, purely thanks to his 211 OPS+ and a solid 78 games in CF/73 in RF. Both players had significant DH time, Judge 25 games, Ohtani 100% of his games.

This winter with Judge and next with Ohtani should be quite interesting as that will give a better idea of how much MLB teams value their seasons. Judge is entering his age 31 season, Ohtani will be entering his age 29 season when each plays after free agency (assuming Ohtani doesn't sign an extension before then). It'll be quite interesting to see what happens over the next 12-16 months with the 2 of them.

As to this year, MMP is pretty much a coin flip as 1 WAR is almost purely random. FanGraphs has it Judge 11.4, Ohtani 9.4, BR Judge 10.6 vs Ohtani 9.6 - so both systems put Judge ahead, one by 1 WAR, the other by 2. How much is that bonus roster slot worth? Most estimates I've seen put it around 1/2 a WAR. So that shifts it to Judge by 1/2 to 1 1/2 WAR. Oy, is this ever a coin toss. For 'how the heck did that happen' I lean towards Ohtani, although 62 HR also lands under that category. Ohtani won last year with a weaker season but also weaker opposition (sorry Vlad). A tie would be perfect here as this is just too close. Both did something not done by 'clean' players, both were 'wow' in every respect. I really have trouble with this. Both played 157 games, Ohtani had 666 PA, Judge 696. But Ohtani also faced 660 hitters (fielded 11 balls) while Judge fielded 281 balls in the outfield (mostly CF). Hrm... leading slightly towards Ohtani but dang if this isn't the toughest choice I've ever seen. Either choice is a good one.
   14. DL from MN Posted: November 03, 2022 at 09:43 AM (#6103908)
Ohtani is an interesting free agent. Most free agent pitchers have questions about losing all their value due to an injury but if Ohtani gets hurt you can probably DH him. The potential for downside risk is lower.
   15. The Honorable Ardo Posted: November 04, 2022 at 12:16 AM (#6104183)
Agree that Ohtani's combo platter was more valuable in 2022 than in 2021. I'd vote very narrowly for Judge at #1 because he played 78 games in center field and didn't embarrass himself. If Judge had been strictly a DH or an oafish corner outfielder, Ohtani would rank ahead of him.

I also see Alcantara, Realmuto, and Arenado, in some order, as a clear 3-4-5 second tier ahead of the rest of the field.
   16. cardsfanboy Posted: November 13, 2022 at 12:25 PM (#6105354)
I find it hard to believe that Judge was twice as valuable of a hitter as Ohtani, I think rPos is a bit too penalizing in this particular case, but rBat still has Ohtani far behind even if we are just rating their bats. And I absolutely think war underrates starting pitchers in today games, even after making those concession it's still a toss up for me between Ohtani and Judge and I change my mind daily

Right now I'm thinking
1. Ohtani
2. Judge
3. Alcantara
4. Goldschmidt (I think the defensive numbers don't accurately reflect his value for receiving the ball, nor talk about his clutchiness over Arenado)
5. Arenado
6. Realmuto
7. Gimenez
8. Alvarez
9. Machado
10. Cease

11-15: Trout, Riley, Manoah, Verlander, Edman,
16-20: Nola, Julio Rodriguez, Boegarts, Urias, Fried,
   17. DL from MN Posted: November 15, 2022 at 08:53 AM (#6105601)
If people are having trouble posting in the ballot thread you can post here and I'll transfer the results
   18. DL from MN Posted: November 18, 2022 at 02:53 PM (#6106090)
I wonder about Ohtani with respect to the concept of replacement value. His pitching and DH value is compared to a theoretical replacement player but his ability to do both allows his team to add another rostered player at a different position. It's an advantage for the Angels that no other team enjoys.
   19. kcgard2 Posted: November 18, 2022 at 03:25 PM (#6106101)
Tango estimates the roster slot special value of Ohtani at less than half a WAR, FWIW.
   20. cardsfanboy Posted: November 18, 2022 at 03:46 PM (#6106104)
Tango estimates the roster slot special value of Ohtani at less than half a WAR, FWIW.


That seems a little low, but I get it. With the new rule for DH/Pitchers, every time Ohtani pitches and DH in the same game, it's equivalent to giving the Angels two roster spots more than another team, and in games he doesn't pitch, it's still equivalent to giving the Angels an extra roster spot. Of course the Angels management, both field manager and general manager would need to take advantage of this to make it a tangible value, but on it's own, the mere option provides the team with more roster room to either specialize, platoon or just add depth. Having an extra replacement level player technically gives no advantage, but being able to specialize that slot, and having two extra players 1/6 of the games of the year, does feel like more than half a war advantage logically speaking.
   21. cardsfanboy Posted: November 18, 2022 at 06:21 PM (#6106118)
Just curious the next step, I've posted a preliminary ballot in this thread.
   22. DL from MN Posted: November 18, 2022 at 10:56 PM (#6106139)
Just curious the next step, I've posted a preliminary ballot in this thread.


Post in the ballot thread when you are ready. I don't see any issues with your choices.
   23. kcgard2 Posted: November 19, 2022 at 08:26 AM (#6106148)
With the new rule for DH/Pitchers, every time Ohtani pitches and DH in the same game, it's equivalent to giving the Angels two roster spots more than another team, and in games he doesn't pitch, it's still equivalent to giving the Angels an extra roster spot.

I don't follow this, could you explain?
   24. Moeball Posted: November 20, 2022 at 05:32 PM (#6106256)
Ohtani: 166 innings with 2.33 ERA, finished 4th in HR, 5th in slugging and OPS.

Mystery player: 166 innings with 2.22 ERA, led the league in HR, SLG and OPS.

You're right, we've never seen anything like this before.

Oh, and then he helped his team win the World Series with 2 wins and a 1.06 ERA.
   25. progrockfan Posted: November 22, 2022 at 08:48 AM (#6106425)
Comparable, certainly. But Ohtani wins the head-to-head comparison easily. Ruth was great in 1918 - but Ohtani was greater in 2022.

Ruth played 95 games (75% of his team's games).
Ohtani played 157 games (97% of his team's games).

The harmonic mean of Ruth's OPS+ and ERA+ is 149.2.
The harmonic mean of Ohtani's OPS+ and ERA+ is 157.4 - in a much larger sample set.

Ruth played a segregated game, which wasn't his fault but is nonetheless historically true. Ohtani played against the best in the world.

Ohtani is the first full-time two-way star in baseball history. And yes, his 2022 was historically unprecedented.
   26. DL from MN Posted: November 29, 2022 at 10:00 AM (#6107134)
I can move prelims over to the ballot thread if people have trouble posting
   27. DL from MN Posted: November 29, 2022 at 02:30 PM (#6107187)
I just noticed that I ended this on the last Wednesday of the month instead of the first Wednesday of the month. I can extend to Dec 7 if that gets us more ballots.
   28. DL from MN Posted: November 30, 2022 at 02:01 PM (#6107330)
Extending the deadline a week. 5 ballots is really small.

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