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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Thursday, August 28, 2003New Eligibles Year by YearHere we go, if someone can post them for the next 5-10 years, and then maintain this that would be great. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head
Posted: August 28, 2003 at 04:20 PM | 996 comment(s)
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If a backlogger manages to sneak in (unlikely, since those guys will have plenty of chances before this), it makes things even tighter.
Bonds
ARod
Rickey
Ripken
Piazza
Larkin
Bagwell
Raines
Griffey
Sheffield
Pudge
Thomas
Gwynn
Chipper
Biggio
McGwire
Manny
Thome
Jeter
Palmeiro
Edmonds
Posada
Pujols
Rolen
Sosa
Walker
Alomar
BGiles
Vlad
Giambi
Edgar
-----current in/out line----
Bernie
Ventura
Abreu
Belle
TFernández
Salmon
Luis González
Kent
Lofton
Olerud
O'Neill
McGriff
Nomah
Kendall
TPhillips
JBell
Helton
Yes, I've looked at it some and 2012 is a three-backlogger year, I think. Nobody retired after 2006, they all came back for 2007. The best newbie I see is Bernie Williams. Others:
Tim Salmon
Ruben Sierra
Sandy Alomar, Jr.*
Bill Mueller
Tim Worrell
Jeff Fassero
Jeff Nelson
Vinny Castilla
Brian Jordan
Eric Young
Scott Erickson
Kent Mercker
JT Snow
Pedro Astacio
Jeromy Burnitz
Jose Hernandez
Joe Randa
Tony Womack
Rick Helling
Javy Lopez
David Bell
Phil Nevin
Matt Lawton
Carl Everett
Brad Radke
Keith Foulke
Edgardo Alfonzo
Alex Gonzalez
Danny Graves
Depending on how many the HOF elects, we may not want to elect three every year. We may want to elect 2 in odd years (2009, 2011, 2013) and 3 in even years (2010, 2012, 2014). Otherwise our number may far exceed theirs in short order.
My sense is that once we catch up in time, there's no reason to match our numbers to theirs. We started with that number so that we could show who really belonged if 231 players were elected. As we continue, we can show who should be elected once that standard has been established. If we reduce the number of electees without a demographic justification for it (which we don't have at present), we would be in effect changing our standards, falling (to a lesser extent) into the same trap the HoF has fallen into. If our numbers far exceed theirs, it will only highlight the problems of their process (and if our numbers are far exceeding theirs, they will eventually find a VC configuration that increases their rate of inductions).
HITTERS
-------
Bernie Williams
Tim Salmon
Edgardo Alfonzo
Javy Lopez
Jeromy Burntiz
Vinny Castilla
Eric Young
Bill Mueller
Joe Randa
Phil Nevin
Ruben Sierra
Carl Everett
J.T. Snow
David Bell
Corey Koskie
Matt Lawton
Jose Hernandez
Alex S. Gonzalez
Tony Batista
Tony Womack
Todd Hollandsworth
Jose Vizcaino
Damian Jackson
PITCHERS
--------
Brad Radke
Keith Foulke
Cory Lidle
Rick Helling
Terry Mulholland
Pedro Astacio
Kent Merker
Arthur Rhodes
Jeff Fassero
Felix Rodriguez
Ricardo Rincon
Tim Worrell
Dustin Hermanson
I wouldn't call it a three-backlogger year. The classes of 2010 and 2011 are so strong that we'll definitely have some holdovers from those ballots. Most likely, we'll have two of Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker still hanging around (presuming we elect Alomar and Larkin and 1 of McGriff/Martinez in '10, and Palmeiro, Bagwell and Brown in '11). Maybe those guys won't go in as easily as I think they will, but we could be looking at only one backlog spot in '12, not three.
No. Since 2008 was contiguous with the bulk of his career, our practice has always been "less than 5 games pitched" or "less than 10 games played". If he had not played in 2007, his 6 G/28 IP in 2008 would be considered token, i.e., insufficient play for restarting his eligibility clock.
Mike Hampton is in an in-between status right now. If he does not play significantly in 2009-10, I would argue that his 13 G/78 IP in 2008 is not enough to restart his eligibility clock and that he should be eligible in 2011. However, this is premature speculating, since he seems primed for the Braves rotation in 2009.
fourth place finisher from 2011 (Brown, Palmeiro or Walker)
Bernie Williams (or backlog)
backlog
2013:
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mike Piazza
(Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling and Sammy Sosa top the new backlog)
(David Wells and Steve Finley could also get some support)
2014:
Greg Maddux
Frank Thomas
Tom Glavine
(Mike Mussina, Jeff Kent and Jim Edmonds add to the top-heavy backlog)
(Luis Gonzalez could get some support)
2015 and 2016:
new eligibles to be determined
six major holdovers (Biggio, Edmonds, Kent, Mussina, Schilling, Sosa)
potential retirees
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Gary Sheffield
John Smoltz
Ivan Rodriguez
Trevor Hoffman (signed for 2010)
Ken Griffey (signed for 2010)
Omar Vizquel (signed for 2010)
-Hampton pitched enough in 2008-09 to restart the eligibility clock. He is not eligible in 2011.
-Nomo should have an asterisk, as he returned and made token appearances in 2008
-I maybe missed a couple minor candidates: Higginson, Cordero, Hidalgo, Grieve, et al; catchers Charles Johnson and Dan Wilson. I haven't checked their numbers to see if they would qualify for listing.
-The win shares numbers supplies by Juan V may have differences from official sources.
I'll try to update it in the next couple days. But if the 2011 Discussion thread goes up with the list as is, it's no big deal. I'm working on 2012-13-14 new eligibles in standard format.
Crap, I just realized I forgot that the century actually started in 2001. Let me check...Well, Edmonds still qualifies. Same number of seasons, more PAs in the 21st.
Yeah, he's 20th century, Devin. Maybe Kent and Moose, too.
If you update it, Dan, I'll just amend it later.
Once we get through those though, I think the back half of the 2010s will open some doors.
BTW, the original schedule had us going to 4 elect me spots every 4th year around this time (roughly 12-15 years after Arizona and Tampa Bay entered the league).
We scrapped that, but I really cannot remember why (minor pressure because the HoF was tightening it's doors?). It's entirely defensible to consider it again if we think it's reasonable.
The "X" per year, instead some arbitrary % of the vote is one of the founding principles of the Hall of Merit and the key principle that makes it's end result better than the Hall of Fame.
IMO the single biggest mistake the Hall of Fame ever made was setting 75% as the standard. The football hall of fame has a much better election process for two reasons 1) 32 guys in a room, debating the merits of the players 2) a psuedo-fixed system. I believe they have a 75% standard, but with a minimum of 3 and a maximum of 6 (plus one old-timer every year). I could be mistaken there though, but I believe that's essentially how it works. They elect 4-7 per year no matter what. I prefer our fixed number, known in advance (without knowing who the candidates will be), but it's close to the same thing either way.
That's one thing that is not up for debate, IMO. The number that X represents is open. But moving from X to Y is not anything I can ever see me endorsing. Feel free to try though, I've been surprised before.
There are plenty of qualified candidates. I would have no problem electing any of our top 10. I can never see a year where there won't be 3 reasonable candidates. Whether or not we agree on who should be at the top of the backlog, there are always worthy backloggers. IMO, the biggest (of our few) mistakes have been electing the "shiny new toy" over a worthy backlogger.
The worst thing we could do is tie ourselves to only electing the no-brainers. Just like the Hall of Fame, this is not a 'small-hall'.
And we are by no means lowering our standard. As I said if anything, we've raised it. Using the straight numbers that got us this far, we should be electing 4 every 4th year, and we chose not to do that and just stick with 3 (at least for the time being). I am absolutely dead set against getting any tighter.
Exactly. As long as we are picking the three best eligible ballplayers from the whole history of baseball in each election (and not screwing up our picks), our standard will be very stable. If we have the election rate set about right, we'll probably add players into the high backlog (that long-term top group that fills spots 5 to 25 in people's rankings with roughly equivalent players) at about the same rate that we pull players off the top of that backlog in years where there are HoM spots that don't go to new arrivals.
Because, as Joe says, there are plenty of qualified candidates, we could easily watch the trends in the quality of the top backlog for a decade before deciding to elect slightly more or fewer candidates, without risking any meaningful lowering of HoM standards.
In terms of percentage, I agree 100% with Joe.
I think part of the message is that, sure, Cooperstown blew it on a lot of their picks, the Frisch cronies, etc., but also Cooperstown is actively blowing it today by pretending to become more exclusive that it ever really was. They are not doing contemporary baseball any favors by pretending that it's not as good as the good old days.
We've tried to make clear that the real Hall blew it on about 60 picks, and we found much better alternatives. It might be worth reviving the "HOM but not HOF" lists to clarify which guys we believe belong and which we only marginally support, like Edgar.
Since we technically had 4 separate "votes" on those players, might not even be bad in 2010 to force us to pick only 15 of that group - this time head-to-head - to cement which guys' exclusion is the most offensive.
All right, a blast from the past: the 1931 election results. 1931 was a full-on backlog election, in an elect-one year. 53 people voted. The average consensus score for 1931 was -3.4, a record low at the time, which would become quite pedestrian in due time. There were votes for 55 different players - again, that total seems quaintly low now. I'll list everyone who was either subsequently elected, or who drew votes on the 2010 ballot.
1. Dickey Pearce. Elected 1931.
2. Rube Foster. Elected 1932.
3. George Van Haltren. 38th on 2010 ballot. The vote totals at the time: Pearce 661, Foster 616, Van Haltren 614.
4. Clark Griffith. Elected 1971.
5. Lip Pike. Elected 1940.
6. Jake Beckley. Elected 1998.
7. Hughie Jennings. Elected 1960.
8. Cupid Childs. Elected 1988.
9. Roger Bresnahan. Elected 2004.
10. Jimmy Ryan. 71st on 2010 ballot. Has at times been off the ballot altogether.
11. Hugh Duffy. 7th on 2010 ballot.
12. Rube Waddell. Elected 1987.
13. Mickey Welch. 26th on 2010 ballot.
14. Pete Browning. Elected 2005.
15. Tommy Leach. 11th on 2010 ballot.
16. Bill Monroe. 28th on 2010 ballot.
(Spots Poles, Harry Hooper.)
19. Larry Doyle. 42nd on 2010 ballot.
20. Charley Jones. Elected 2003.
(Bobby Veach)
22. Frank Chance. 59th on 2010 ballot.
23. Ed Cicotte. 53rd on 2010 ballot.
24. Gavy Gravath. 6th on 2010 ballot.
(George Burns)
26. Ed Williamson. 31st on 2010 ballot.
27. Addie Joss. 46th on 2010 ballot.
28. John McGraw. Elected 2009.
29. Fielder Jones. 89th on 2010 ballot.
30. Vic Willis. 17th on 2010 ballot.
(Ed Konetchy, Lave Cross)
33. Jim McCormick. 86rd on 2010 ballot.
34. Tommy Bond. 84th on 2010 ballot.
(Herman Long, Mike Tiernan, Del Pratt)
38. Tony Mullane. 57th on 2010 ballot.
(Bruce Petway, Mike Griffin, Silver King, Donie Bush, John Donaldson)
44. Fred Dunlap. 36th on 2010 ballot.
(Tom York, Joe Tinker, Jake Daubert, Billy Nash, Roy Thomas, Bobby Mathews, Levi Meyerle, Harry Wright, Jimmy Williams, Jim Whitney, Johnny Evers).
I will say that my biggest and most consensus-lowering disagreements with the rest of the electorate have been over a number of the 1931 also-rans who were eventually elected with no support from me.
Which is also a reason why we are electing guys in the 30s in terms of percentage of possible points - we have many more players to choose from (and splinter the vote) than we used to. It doesn't mean the players themselves aren't as good.
I 100% disagree Dan.
The "X" per year, instead some arbitrary % of the vote is one of the founding principles of the Hall of Merit and the key principle that makes it's end result better than the Hall of Fame.
926. Chris Cobb Posted: December 01, 2009 at 09:18 PM (#3400773)
In terms of percentage, I agree 100% with Joe.
I'm good for another 100%.
927. sunnyday2 Posted: December 02, 2009 at 12:09 AM (#3400885)
Certainly looking at the new eligibles coming up and looking at the current backlog, there are players waiting who are better than some we've already elected. If anything, our picks in and around 1930 look the weakest. The backlog got better and better from there, though we have caught up since going to 3 every year. But the next 5 years, there's little risk of any choices that are worse, much less substantially worse, than our low end is today
Some would say the picks in the late 1990s and 20-aughts look the weakest.
There was never a good chance of electing anyone "worse, much less substantially worse, than our low end today"! We may anticipate two from Cone, McGriff, Bernie Williams and the deep backlog in 2012. No one who is elected will be out of place, but it's also likely that substantial minorities will consider two of them to be among the weakest members.
Regarding any move from three to four per year, how far do we lag behind the original schedule? The gradual introduction of an increase by a pattern such as (from one to two) =1,1,1,1,1,2,1,1,2,1,1,2,1,2,1,2,1,2,1,2,2,2,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,1[1931],2= isn't much difference from a single step up in 1919 or so. Thirty months from now the lists of forthcoming eligibility will extend practically thru 2017. Maybe a step up from three to four will seem reasonable then.
If the practical scope of the next election will be newcomers only, as some anticipate, then there will be much to learn this year. It is possible to maintain any engagement by annual elections participants during such a year, or even during its month of November?
2012 (November 28, 2011)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos
311 57.3 1991 Bernie Williams-CF
232 44.2 1993 Tim Salmon-RF
194 39.5 1994 Javy Lopez-C
211 31.3 1995 Edgardo Alfonzo-3B/2B
157 45.4 1995 Brad Radke-P
222 14.5 1986 Ruben Sierra-RF
166 23.0 1992 Brian Jordan-RF
170 13.0 1993 J.T. Snow-1B*
166 14.4 1993 Jeromy Burnitz-RF
162 17.1 1992 Eric Young-2B
126 30.5 1991 Jeff Fassero-P
120 30.8 1990 Scott Erickson-P
140 23.2 1996 Bill Mueller-3B
143 20.5 1995 Phil Nevin-3B/1B
153 11.9 1993 Vinny Castilla-3B
148 12.9 1995 Carl Everett-CF/RF
142 13.7 1996 Matt Lawton-RF/LF
121 26.0 1999 Corey Koskie-3B
100 24.0 1992 Pedro Astacio-P
135 12.2 1996 Joe Randa-3B
125 13.9 1991 Jose Vizcaino-SS/2B
2013 (November 26, 2012)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos
705 186.2 1986 Barry Bonds-LF
437 146.4 1984 Roger Clemens-P
428 73.8 1989 Craig Biggio-2B
325 68.7 1993 Mike Piazza-C
322 61.0 1989 Sammy Sosa-RF
252 75.4 1990 Curt Schilling-P
288 51.7 1992 Kenny Lofton-CF
297 41.3 1989 Steve Finley-CF
280 45.0 1983 Julio Franco-SS/2B
210 55.2 1988 David Wells-P
237 41.8 1995 Shawn Green-RF
209 36.7 1992 Reggie Sanders-RF
230 28.9 1994 Ryan Klesko-LF/1B
185 33.7 1994 Jose Valentin-SS
169 33.1 1995 Jeff Cirillo-3B
144 38.6 1992 Roberto Hernandez-RP
193 23.7 1993 Jeff Conine-1B/LF
159 24.4 1992 Royce Clayton-SS
151 23.7 1994 Rondell White-LF/CF
121 32.4 1992 Bob Wickman-RP
118 31.9 1993 Woody Williams-P
125 27.7 1990 Jose Mesa-RP
122 27.4 1995 Mike Lieberthal-C
120 27.4 1996 Jason Schmidt-P*
109 30.8 1997 Kelvim Escobar-P*
111 21.9 1993 Aaron Sele-P
122 12.5 1997 Todd Walker-2B
And, if anyone cares, Bobby Higginson is also eligible in 2011 (157 WS, 21.5 W3).
Also, I was surprised to see Lofton so close to Finley. For some reason, I thought that the gap between the two would be much larger (with Finley the one in the lead).
Also also, thanks for putting the lists together, Dan.
Heh. I was surprised to see Finley with a (small) lead in WS.
Players with 1970+ games played in CF
Rk Player OPS+ PA To From1 Ty Cobb 168 13072 1905 1928
2 Tris Speaker 157 11988 1907 1928
3 Willie Mays 156 12493 1951 1973
4 Ken Griffey 136 11196 1989 2009
5 Richie Ashburn 111 9736 1948 1962
6 Brett Butler 110 9545 1981 1997
7 Kenny Lofton 107 9234 1991 2007
8 Willie Davis 106 9822 1960 1979
9 Steve Finley 104 10460 1989 2007
10 Doc Cramer 87 9933 1929 1948
He was okay, but nothing special, in Japan, and tore the cover off the ball in Korea and Mexico (as he should have). There's not really a lot of space there for much in the way of extra credit.
929. OCF Posted: December 02, 2009 at 02:01 AM (#3400912)
>>If anything, our picks in and around 1930 look the weakest. ... The inference then would be that we elected too many players then.<<
> All right, a blast from the past: the 1931 election results. 1931 was a full-on backlog election, in an elect-one year.<
OCF highlighted and annotated those 1931 results usefully. Limiting myself to the bold markup, twelve players on that ballot have been elected: Dickey Pearce and Rube Foster promptly, Lip Pike a few years later during a lull between storms, and nine more after we worked our way through the backlog in the late 1950s. Here is a chronological list of their elections.
1960, Hugh Jennings
1971, Clark Griffith
1987, Rube Waddell
1988, Cupid Childs
1998, Jake Beckley
2003, Charley Jones (eligible in 1898)
2004, Roger Bresnahan
2005, Pete Browning
2009, John McGraw
I recall concerns expressed around 1930 that the few elections (to 1932) might be the last realistic chances for any of the current leading candidates. It seemed possible that "it's now or never". In fact, the continuing viability of so many early candidates, and the election of more than a handful during the later decades of the regular cycle, shows that the election schedule worked well. It enforced honoring early players at a pace that ultimately proved to be comfortable, however stiff it seemed around 1930. In other words, the early schedule was a constraint that proved to be not binding. It may be interpreted as a safeguard against election of too many modern players, which proved to be unnecessary.
The election record disproves that "too many players" were elected at any early or middle stage. How else could Charley Jones and Pete Browning win election during the last decade, competing successfully against almost everyone now in the backlog?
This "proof" takes for granted the group of voters ultimately recruited and retained. It's from their perspective that the schedule was just right, or nearly so. The "safeguard against election of too many modern players" may have been unnecessary only because something else about the process dissuaded the too-modern voters.
2014 (December 2, 2013)—elect 3(?)
WS war Name-Pos
398 96.9 Greg Maddux-P
405 75.9 Frank Thomas-DH/1B
314 71.6 Tom Glavine-P
270 74.6 Mike Mussina-P
339 59.4 Jeff Kent-2B
318 46.3 Luis Gonzalez-LF
206 46.3 Kenny Rogers-P
277 38.2 Moises Alou-LF/RF
231 32.7 Ray Durham-2B
179 34.4 Tom Gordon-RP*
186 24.3 Mark Grudzielanek-2B/SS*
108 27.6 Brandon Webb-P*
125 21.2 Steve Trachsel-P
156 19.8 Shannon Stewart-LF
128 17.7 Armando Benitez-RP
113 21.4 Jon Lieber-P
156 15.8 Sean Casey-1B
129 22.0 Jose Cruz-CF/RF
115 20.1 Keith Foulke-RP
124 18.1 Mike Timlin-RP
107 21.1 Esteban Loaiza-P
146 17.6 Damion Easley-2B
135 19.3 Geoff Jenkins-LF
157 14.0 Jose Vidro-2B
154 14.4 Richie Sexson-1B
127 15.4 Paul LoDuca-C
112 19.6 Trot Nixon-RF
119 11.1 Todd Jones-RP
124 09.7 Jacque Jones-RF/LF
119 10.6 Dmitri Young-1B/LF
These guys mostly left MLB after 2008 (except for those marked *), so there is still some potential for comebacks here, especially Webb.
Looks like five HoMers here. Along with the six from the previous year and another four in 2015 it seems we could add a few elect-4 years to clear out this wave; if we don't do that we won't be looking at the backlog for a loonnggg time after the 2012 election.
His daddy makes a better candidate. I'm not 100% sure whether the same comment would or wouldn't apply to Moises Alou.
Sometime in the next few weeks I'll try to work up RA+ equivalent records for Maddux, Glavine, Mussina, Rogers, Webb, and Trachsel and post them either here or on a general 2012 discussion thread if there is one. WS and WAR disagree on the relative rank of Glavine and Mussina; that's a good reason for taking a third look.
2015 (December 8, 2014)—elect 3(?)
WS war Name-Pos
430 63.3 Gary Sheffield-RF
326 89.6 Randy Johnson-P
289 65.3 John Smoltz-P
256 73.5 Pedro Martinez-P
303 44.2 Carlos Delgado-1B
287 42.7 Brian Giles-RF/LF
219 42.6 Nomar Garciaparra-SS
191 27.3 Cliff Floyd-LF
161 27.8 Darin Erstad-1B/CF
189 16.8 Mark Loretta-2B/SS
177 18.5 Rich Aurilia-SS
175 17.6 Jermaine Dye-RF
114 26.1 Jarrod Washburn-P
125 18.0 Troy Percival-RP
138 11.1 Kevin Millar-1B
128 11.8 Tony Clark-1B
These are all 2009 retirees; I found no significant players who get "early" eligibility (who subsequently made token appearances). I might yet come up with a foreign player or two (probably Asian) who merits our review.
I still support the idea of having a couple elect-4 elections before this decade is through. Otherwise the backlog will lie fallow for too long.
How long is too long? None of these guys are 90 years old.
Exploring the margins of the HoM is interesting. Ushering in obvious choices is oh-so-BBWAA.
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Lou Whitaker
Mark McGwire
Jeff Bagwell
Kevin Brown
Larry Walker
Rafael Palmeiro
We just had election that was nothing but "exploring the margins". A pessimist might call that "lowering the bar" or "scraping the bottom of the barrel". Sometimes players just pile up, it will sort itself out.
I would like to know if Joe has determined whether we inducted the "right" amount.
78.6 Ken Griffey
67.9 Jim Edmonds
66.6 Manny Ramirez (if he plays 10 games in 2012 that will make him eligible later)
49.4 Andy Pettitte (if he pitches significantly in 2012+ that will make him eligible later)
37.7 Jason Kendall
34.5 Troy Glaus
30.4 Trevor Hoffman
29.3 Billy Wagner
28.8 Mike Lowell
28.1 Mike Hampton
27.3 Garret Anderson
25.8 Randy Winn
24.5 Luis Castillo
22.9 Mike Sweeney
21.3 David Eckstein
20.8 Ben Sheets
If Manny Ramirez does play a bit this year (10 games as stated in above post) that will mean there are only 2 serious candidates in 2016 (without looking into it I don't think Pettitte or Hoffman, etc. have that serious of a case), but considering how much recent backlog there will be by that time...
And I know it's been done before, but I'm going to see:
2013: Let's say Bonds, Clemens, and Piazza get in. New backlog: Biggio, Schilling, Sosa, Lofton.
2014: Let's say Maddux, Thomas, and Glavine get in. Add in Mussina and Kent to Biggio, Schilling, Sosa, and Lofton.
2015: Let's say Biggio, Johnson, and Martinez get in. Now we're adding Smoltz & Sheffield to Schilling, Sosa, Lofton, Mussina, & Kent.
2016: Assuming Ramirez plays the 10 games this year, then Griffey and Edmonds are added to the recent pool of Smoltz, Sheffield, Schilling, Sosa, Lofton, Mussina, & Kent.
I'd say Griffey gets in here, and after that I can't even guess (not that I'm claiming the earlier guesses are correct)!
I guess the players I think would be likely to fight it out for 2nd and 3rd are Edmonds, Smoltz, Sheffield, Schilling, and Mussina; with Sosa, Kent, & Lofton further down.
Seriously: WOW.
2016 (December 7, 2015)—elect 3(?)
WS war Name-Pos
403 79.2 Ken Griffey-CF
408 64.8 Manny Ramirez-LF/RF*
301 57.3 Jim Edmonds-CF
225 44.8 Jaime Moyer-P*
245 38.3 Jason Kendall-C
189 35.0 Troy Glaus-3B
188 27.0 Trevor Hoffman-RP
182 26.9 Billy Wagner-RP
230 20.9 Garret Anderson-LF
201 26.8 Luis Castillo-2B
144 26.4 Mike Hampton-P
185 21.9 Mike Lowell-3B
171 24.5 Randy Winn-RF/CF
162 21.7 Mike Sweeney-DH/1B
143 18.6 David Eckstein-SS
169 13.7 Brad Ausmus-C
141 18.3 Ronnie Belliard-2B
104 17.9 Chan Ho Park-P
130 10.2 Christian Guzman-SS
137 08.3 Bengie Molina-C
134 03.4 Jose Guillen-RF
118 14.4 Jeff Suppan-P*
The current frontlog: Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Sammy Sosa, Kenny Lofton, Jeff Kent
2015: Top newcomers: Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Gary Sheffield, John Smoltz
Johnson and Martinez are elected easily. I predict that Schilling will finally be elected after being the top runner-up the last two years.
New backlog: Mussina, Sosa, Lofton, Kent, Sheffield, Smoltz
2016: Top newcomers: Ken Griffey Jr, Jim Edmonds, Trevor Hoffman
Griffey is elected easily. The frontlog breaks a bit as the top three returnees are elected. I predict Mussina, Sheffield and Smoltz, though not necessarily in that order. Edmonds joins the frontlog. I doubt Hoffman does well with this electorate.
New backlog: Sosa, Lofton, Edmonds, Kent
2017: Top newcomers: Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez
The three newbies lap the returnees. Probably in reverse alphabetical order- Rodriguez, Ramirez, Guerrero.
2018: Top newcomers: Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Jim Thome
It's another elect-4 year but I'm not sure that the newbies claim all of the spots. Chipper is a lock. Thome seems like one as well. I'll go out on a limb and claim that Rolen beats out the backlog but that Andruw loses out to Lofton.
New backlog: Sosa, A Jones, Edmonds, Kent
2019: Top newcomers: Roy Halladay, Todd Helton, Mariano Rivera
No room for the frontlog again. Halladay should be elected easily. There might be a few anti-reliever holdouts to keep Rivera out of first but the consensus should see him elected. Helton will have to fight it out with Sosa and Jones but I predict he emerges victorious. Lance Berkman and Andy Pettitte, also eligible, are ticketed for the Hall of Very Good. If Alex Rodriguez is unable to come back from his suspension next season, he would become eligible for 2019. I expect that ARod would be elected and bump Helton into the backlog. But for now, I'm predicting that ARod plays in 2015.
2020: The top returnees- Sosa, A Jones, Edmonds, Kent- have a chance depending on how many top players retire in 2014. With Jeter, Ichiro and Giambi all 40 or above, there might be another big class of newbies. I'll say that 2020 sees a HoM class of Jeter, Ichiro, Sosa and Jones while Edmonds and Kent continue to wait for the next opening.
2017 (December 12, 2016)—elect 3(?)
WS war Name-Pos
338 68.4 Ivan Rodriguez-C
324 59.3 Vladimir Guerrero-RF
243 46.5 Mike Cameron-CF
258 42.7 Jorge Posada-C
245 38.5 Magglio Ordonez-RF
206 44.9 J.D. Drew-RF
170 46.0 Javier Vazquez-P
233 34.3 Derrek Lee-1B
236 32.1 Edgar Renteria-SS
176 34.6 Tim Wakefield-P
142 34.5 Chris Carpenter-P*
160 28.2 Melvin Mora-3B
197 21.4 Orlando Cabrera-SS
147 27.7 Carlos Guillen-SS
181 18.8 Pat Burrell-LF
141 24.3 Jason Varitek-C
138 22.3 Craig Counsell-2B/SS
116 24.9 Casey Blake-3B
124 20.8 Aaron Rowand-CF
158 14.3 Matt Stairs-RF/DH
124 13.6 Julio Lugo-SS
Also, we need to update the WAR numbers before we post the 2016 discussion thread. Probably makes sense to have both B-R and Fangraphs WAR, right?
In Manny's case, it's going to be many years (if ever) that the BBWAA will vote him into the Hall of Fame anyway, so it doesn't much matter if we are one year earlier than we would be if we waited from him to be eligible for the HoF.
That doesn't mean we can't change rules. We should enact rule changes as necessary to address substantive issues; we just shouldn't do so for the sole purpose of following whatever the HOF is doing.
This is a soon-to-be 43-year-old player who posted a sub-.700 OPS playing AAA-ball in 2012, 2013 and 2014. I suppose there's a remote possibility of him coming back and contributing at the MLB level. But if he somehow posts a 130 OPS+ playing as a part-time DH, is it going to change our analysis of his career?
A few of us who also would have preferred 2017 eligibility (to match HOF now that we are in real time) wish we had seen this thread, and it was a mixed bag here with just a few opinions as it is. Apparently Joe went with 2016, though.
Here's 2018.
Here's 2019.
Here's 2020.
*This is also straight from BB-Ref and ranked by JAWS.
Tim Hudson
Mark Buehrle
Torii Hunter
Dan Haren
Barry Zito
Aramis Ramirez
Shane Victorino
Alex Rios
Grady Sizemore
A.J. Burnett
Hudson and Buehrle will be interesting candidates; no one else really meets Hall of Merit standards.
Alex Rodriguez
David Ortiz
Mark Teixeira
Jimmy Rollins
Carl Crawford
Jake Peavy
Coco Crisp
Justin Morneau
Prince Fielder
Joe Nathan
Carlos Beltran
John Lackey
Jered Weaver
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jhonny Peralta
Matt Cain
Jayson Werth
J.J. Hardy
Mike Napoli
R.A. Dickey
Adrian Beltre
Joe Mauer
Chase Utley
David Wright
Bartolo Colon
Matt Holliday
Adrian Gonzalez
Jose Bautista
Jose Reyes
Victor Martinez
2025 new eligible candidates: (taken from BB-Ref, ranked by JAWS)
Ichiro Suzuki
CC Sabathia
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Felix Hernandez
Troy Tulowitzki
Ben Zobrist
Curtis Granderson
Hanley Ramirez
Russell Martin
Adam Jones
Brian McCann
Cole Hamels
Ryan Braun
Alex Gordon
Shin-Soo Choo
Edwin Encarnacion
Buster Posey
Jon Lester
Brett Gardner
Ryan Zimmerman
Kyle Seager
2024 - Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, backlog
2025 - CC Sabathia, Ichiro Suzuki, backlog/Ian Kinsler, Felix Hernandez, Russell Martin, Brian McCann
2026 - Backlog/Cole Hamels, Ian Kinsler, Felix Hernandez, Russell Martin, Brian McCann
2027 - Buster Posey, Backlog/Cole Hamels, Ian Kinsler, Felix Hernandez, Russell Martin, Brian McCann
2028 - Albert Pujols, Backlog/Cole Hamels, Ian Kinsler, Felix Hernandez, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Yadier Molina
I think Beltre, Mauer, Utley, Sabathia, Suzuki, Posey, and Pujols will sail in year 1, the others noted will be frontloggers with a chance to be elected in year one or during the next four years.
This leaves 13 front log/backlog slots to fill.
Hamels, Kinsler, Hernandez, Martin, McCann, Molina, and 7 backloggers to be enshrined.
How many of the six newbies will make it, should all of them?
And this still leaves considerable energy to be spent picking over the backlog.
If we take George Scales as due with Eric's MLEs, we have the following 10 receiving the most votes:
Buddy Bell, David Ortiz, Sal Bando, Tim Hudson, Tommy John, Bob Johnson, Thurman Munson, Kevin Appier, Jason Giambi, Phil Rizzuto
Bell and Rizzuto are the only two that aren't PHOM, so I'd be happy to back a number of these guys.
"2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2034, 2036-37, 2039, 2041 are elect 4"
That post is almost nine years old, so perhaps this plan has been superseded, but if so there hasn't been any conversation about that in this thread.
If that's the case, then we would be inducting two fewer candidates than Bleed's post proposes. It would look, probably, like:
2024 -- Beltre, Mauer, Utley, +1
2025 -- Sabathia, Suzuki, +1
2026 -- Four Players TBNL
2027 -- Posey +2
2028 -- Pujols +3
7 First-Ballot locks + 11 more spots, with possible "frontloggers" being added in Kinsler, Hernandez, Tulowitzki, Zobrist, Martin, McCann, Hamels, Braun, and Molina. I'd guess that all six of the "frontloggers" Bleed lists above will be enshrined, and maybe 1-2 more, which leaves us taking 3-5 from the backlog. 2026-2028 are going to be very interesting elections!
over the past 25 years each year has produced 2.6 newcomers who have since been elected to the HoM
I think that to bring contemporary representation in the Hall of Merit in line with historic rates of representation, we should be electing three newcomers per year now, on average, so we've probably lagged a little bit on inducting newcomers. Because of the lags between expansion, player retirements, and player eligibility, we would only need to have reached an average of 3 newcomers per year around 2020, so I'm not suggesting that we've been behind by 4 players per decade for the last 2 1/2 decades: the lag is probably closer to 3 players than to 10. So I hope to see us draw a bit more heavily from the contemporary frontlog than from the longterm backlog over the next 4-5 elections.
But we have space to do both.
Having five extra slots per decade to add additional players from the backlog in addition to the approximately 30 slots needed for contemporary players creates space for the Hall to correct past omissions as they are identified by new research and analysis and to very gradually make the HoM a bit of a larger Hall by adding the "next best" players from across the history of the game. This element keeps our engagement with the game's full history fresh and active, which is part of the value of the project.
To be honest I have never been involved in ballot counting so I am not sure that this bonus point system is still being used (or if it ever was implemented).
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