Any MLEs for El Duque would be greatly appreciated.

In proportion to his regular season numbers, he's got to have one of the biggest playoff boosts: 106 IP (14 GS, 19 G), 2.55 ERA, 9-3. Regular season: 1,314 IP, 4.13 ERA, 90-65.

Not a HOM voter, but I was curious. This is a list of MLB pitchers who at age 32+ had 190 to 230 starts with an ERA+ from 100 to 120, sorted by WAR (El Duque had 211 starts and a 110 ERA+). From 1901 on, also. There are a lof of HOF, HOM, and HOVG players on the list. I chose starts rather than IP because this list flatters Hernandez more, but still it's interesting that he has a career that's broadly comparable with the latter career of some very good pitchers.



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In proportion to his regular season numbers, he's got to have one of the biggest playoff boosts: 106 IP (14 GS, 19 G), 2.55 ERA, 9-3. Regular season: 1,314 IP, 4.13 ERA, 90-65.

He started his postseason career 8-0 and had a Mariano-like postseason reputation, at least among Yankee fans, for a while. Eventually age/talent/luck caught up with him but his post-season record is still excellent.

He never got to have a postseason in 2006...grumble...grumble...

but still it's interesting that he has a career that's broadly comparable with the latter career of some very good pitchers.

I posted a similar list in comment #24 after the "Free El Duque" article.

I also pointed out that Hernandez' career WAR from age 32+ is right about at the mean for HOF starting pitchers at the same age range.

Just checked to see where Orlando ranks within the list in comment #3. He has the third-lowest IP, ahead of only Cone and Rick Reed. In ERA+, he's tied for 16th out of 26, with Babe Adams (600 more IP, not in Hall), Curt Davis (also 600 more IP and not in Hall), and Paul Derringer (only 400 more IP, also not in Hall). The 13th-highest IP (essentially, the center of the group) is Paul Derringer, with 1602.1 IP, not in Hall. The 13th best ERA+ is a three-way tie for 111 (Reuschel, Reed, Zahn), none of whom are in the Hall. Of the six guys who are actually in the Hall, five (Johnson, Hubbell, McGinnity, Pop Haines and Burleigh Grimes) clearly beat Orlando both in terms of IP and in ERA+. Haines has 450 more IP than Orlando, and a 115 ERA+ to Hernandez 110. Haines is often considered to be one of the worst Hall of Famers of all time. So, basically, any case for Orlando derived from this list is the sole HoFer Robin Roberts, during the decline phase of his career. I remember the front half of Roberts' career as being pretty healthy.

If you complain that the list is not supposed to be by IP or ERA+, but by WAR, then Orlando is right in the middle of this group: Andy Pettite, Doyle Alexander, Bucky Walters, and Ray Kremer. Pettite might get into the Hall due to New York hype and postseason performance, but he has the HIGHEST WAR in the group of five, Compared to Haines, Pettite has 400 fewer IP against a 3-point ERA+ advantage. And Haines is considered to be a mistake. - Brock Hanke

I also pointed out that Hernandez' career WAR from age 32+ is right about at the mean for HOF starting pitchers at the same age range.

I meant "median".

Anyhoo, this is mainly to point out that El Duque was omitted from the list of newly eligible players in the Ballot Thread intro.

Just curious if anyone gave a shot at MLEs for El Duque? Among pitchers with 1000-2000 IP in their age 32 season or later, he is surrounded by HoMers Mordecai Brown, Ted Lyons, Stan Coveleski, Red Ruffing, and Carl Hubbell in fWAR per 200 IP, at 2.97. Of course, that's five out of sixteen pitchers in the 2.83-3.12 range. But I wonder if he should be discussed more by the HoM voters.

I wonder if he should be discussed more by the HoM voters.

I thought quite a while about Hernandez before dismissing his case on the same grounds as Brock Hanke in #7. Taking away Johnson and Hubbell leaves only four Hall of Merit members on the list. Three of them - Reuschel, Cone, and McGinnity - are on the cusp of our in/out line. Hernandez also pitched for a dynastic team, getting above-average offensive and defensive support.

Two of the fifteen spots on my 2020 ballot went to Cuban pitchers: Luque and Tiant. I'm confident that both were better than Hernandez. Age 32+:

Hernandez: 1314 IP, 110 ERA+
Tiant: 1942 IP, 111 ERA+
Luque: 2245 IP, 121 ERA+ (Incidentally, this is why I'm such a strong supporter of Luque's candidacy.)

Threw one of the most memorable innings of my lifetime. Thanks for the escape act.