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Hall of Merit— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best
Monday, January 29, 2007
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1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 29, 2007 at 02:28 PM (#2288081)1936 Ballot Discussion
Yeah, that's true. If I had posted this thread back then, it would have been filled with posts about The Winning Team, epilepsy, the Lazzeri strikeout, shell shock, alcoholism and the House of David, but there would have been no need for any serious analytical work.
It would have been interesting to rig the eligibility timeline to force us to choose between Alexander and Mathewson - I think that vote would have been overwhelmingly for Alexander.
That would also have spurred on analysis of both pitchers and their eras, so that would have squeezed out the anecdotes somewhat.
Let's see, the way things tend to work around here....
The Winning Team would lead to arguments for and against Reaganomics, the Invasion of Grenada (which might also spur discussion of the Invasion of Panama), and then ultimately into whether Sen. John Tower's death was suspicious or not.
Epilepsy would after twists and turns lead to Jim Eisenreich and Jimmy Piersall, with a possible mention of Pete Harnisch.
The Lazzeri strikeout would lead someone to ask, What are the important Ks in history?
Shell shock would die on the vine, not enough to go on, but it could lead to talk of Hemingway's short stories or to Curtis Pride.
Alcholism has so many possible tangents it's hard to pin down, but surely Paul Waner and Hack Wilson would make an appearance; ultimately this leads someone to ask, Well, how is this really different than Cocaine in the 1970s and 1980s? Or alternatively an exploration of prohibition on baseball as a business, as well as on how ballplayers coped with it.
House of David wouldn't start very quickly, but someone would later post a photo of Alex among all the long-haired players, and then quickly it would be into ballplayer grooming versus the standards of the day, with Dave Duncan, Al Hrabosky, Eck, Jimmy Wynn, Oscar Gamble, and Johnny Unitas (via the Simpsons) all making likely appearances.
In fact, it's equally likely that none of these would occur, and instead we'd be purusing something totally unrelated to the player (see threads for C. Cooper and Guidry). So we might guess that instead we'd be talking about something like, oh i dunno, how players traveled then versus today and what kinds of accomodations they had; how awful the Phillies were until 1950; whether Hippo Vaughn's career would have been salvaged by modern medicine; whether the 1920s featured the least ept or at least the least interesting group of Presidents in the modern era; how the post-ww1 rise in runs scored in baseball was reflective of the national mood and national economic picture, and whether there is any general historical relationship between baseball and the national economy/mood.
And that's how we do it at the HOM. ; )
Jimmy Sheckard
Ben Taylor
Billy Herman
Pinky Hargrave
Ted Lilly
Woody Williams
Cal McLish
Ted Wieand
Billy Geer
1911-1920:
235-114, 3116.3 IP and 147 ERA+
1921-1930:
138-94, 2073.7 IP and 123 ERA+
That's a sizeable dropoff, but a very good pitcher. It would be HOM-worthy with another 1200-1500 IP or so.
Greg Maddux shows surprisingly similar thru age 33 and after age 33 splits, but I'd probably draw the line between great maddux and old maddux at a different age.
...
Woody Williams
...
Then someone would mention how the second Woody Williams got his name from famous political figure Woody Woodpecker.
Jimmy Sheckard
Ben Taylor
Billy Herman
Pinky Hargrave
Ted Lilly
Woody Williams
Cal McLish
Ted Wieand
Billy Geer
Not to mention Cal McLish and Cal McLish. And Jim Baskette, Jim Middleton, Ben Van Dyke, Chester Emerson, Chet Spenser, Ches Crist, Ham Wade, Abe Wolstenholme, Tommy Bridges, Tom York, Tommy Bridges, Tommy Dowd, Pinky Hargrave, Max Venable, both George Bradleys, Jumbo McGinnis, Zip Zabel, George Case, Jim Pearce, Larry Monroe, . . . and of course Sweatbreads Bailey!
Win Shares
3. Pete Alexander 477/44-43-40/180/34.3
7. Christy Mathewson 426/39-39-37/161/32.8
At this point, somebody would ask, How did anybody ever think Matty was better?
Alexander 477/44-43-40-36-34-28-27-27-26-26-24-22-20-19-18-16-14-10
Mathewson 426/39-39-37-34-34-32-31-30-30-29-22-21-19
Alex 3 40s, 2 30s, 8 20s, 5 10s--ahead by just 3 WS after best 13 years, but clearly ahead for 3-5 year peak.
Matty 0 40s, 9 30s, 3 20s, 1 10--ahead 9 to 5 on 30s and 40s, so for prime it's pretty much a dead heat.
OTOH this ignores Pete's 1918 season spent in war work as well as the short 1919 season. I would add in 34 WS for 1918 and boost 1919 from 26 to 28. This pushes Pete ahead on prime as well, unless you want to give Matty some sort of hard-luck health credit.
ERA+
Alexander 135/225-171-68-67-61*-57-53-34-29-29-27-27-26-23-20-19-16-13
Mathewson 136/230-223-169-69-59-57-52-48-37-34-32-24
Here Matty is ahead both for peak and prime, but Alex' additional years of 126-23-20-19-16-13 are not just "hangin' around."
Raw Numbers
Alexander 373-208, 2.56 (135), 5190 IP
Mathewson 373-188, 2.13 (136), 4789 IP
Peak
Alex' edge is those 3 40 WS years and, again, six extra "decline" years that Matty didn't have. Following are the top 3 WS years plus any other years that are top 3 ERA+ years.
Alex 1915 31-20, 1.22 (225), 376 IP, 43 WS
Alex 1916 33-12, 1.55 (171), 389 IP, 44 WS
Alex 1917 30-13, 1.83 (153), 388 IP, 40 WS
Alex 1920 27-14, 1.91 (168), 363 IP, 36 WS
Matty 1903 30-13, 2.26 (148), 366 IP, 37 WS
Matty 1905 31-9, 1.28 (230), 339 IP, 39 WS
Matty 1908 37-11, 1.43 (169), 391 IP, 39 WS
Matty 1909 25-6, 1.14 (223), 275 IP, 34 WS
Matty 1911 26-13, 1.99 (169), 307 IP, 32 WS
Was Alex really better for their 3-4-5 year peaks? The assumption has to be that it was harder to throw all those innings in the '10s than in the '00s because, no, the raw numbers aren't any better. Or WS just bumped up against diminishing returns for Matty, whose Giants were 200 games over .500 those 5 years, an average of about 97-57. Alex' Phillies and Cubs were +87 or about 88-66 for his 4 big years, though the Phillies were +91 for the 3 years or about 92-62.
All in all, I would take Alex but James ratings--Alex 3rd all-time and Matty 7th--would seem to exaggerate the difference a bit. The fact that he's got Spahn and Seaver in between there, of course, says nothing about Matty or Alex, it says that James' timeline is strong. Matty seems to me to go ahead of those 2 and then, voila, you've only got Cy Young between there. James says "I focused on big seasons and consistent performance over a five-year period." Being consistently excellent for 13 years, as Matty was, didn't count for as much, I guess.
I knew it was coming!!!
Truman and Trouppe: For the Oval and the Coop(y?)
Matty Alex
31- 13 31- 11
28- 10 30- 13
28- 13 28- 12
23- 8 29- 15
26- 15 27- 14
23- 11 19- 7
23- 11 22- 12
23- 11 20- 9
23- 12 21- 13
22- 13 23- 17
10-year totals
249-118 249-123
Rest of career:
83- 82 120- 84
Total:
332-199 369-208
So I get Alexander with the single best year and with a small advantage in top-5 years (not consecutive), Mathewson with an advantage in years 6-10, giving him a slight advantage in top-10 years - then after 10 years, (actually, after 11 years) it's all Alexander, giving Alexander a sizable career advantage.
All in all, this looks quite similar to the picture sunnyday2 was painting in #12. And that equivalent 120-84 I get for Alexander after subtracting out his best 10 years? It's worse than the whole career of Dizzy Dean (136-82) but better than the whole career of Denny McLain (112-98). It's pretty close to what this system gives for Goose Gossage (not that the system should be applied to relievers) and it's pretty close to the major league career of Sal Maglie (117-75). And yes, if I took away the best 10 years from Cy Young or Walter Johnson and took the leftovers, they'd be even more impressive.
Calvin Coolidge rode on his wife's coattails*. <small>*Someone with a classy wife, like Dr C, must know the correct term.</small>
They went to Senators games and people thought he was a fan of the national game. (We've finally got a President who can keep score!?) But she was the baseball fan, he was the consort.
Turns out Mrs. Dr. Chaleeko isn't much for the fussy fusses of formal wear, however, she informs me, nonetheless, of two possible ways to fill in this analogy:
coattails : menswear :: ______ : womenswear
1) train (which is the immediately obvious one)
2) petticoat (which she said would suggest an analogous degree of archaism since coattails are seldom worn anymore---yet, ironically, still often ridden)
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