This election is going to be the biggest pain in the butt up to this point.

Finally, we get to see a real Mantle vs. Mays debate...

I'll move this Chris Cobb post over from the Charleston thread:

Over on the Pete Hill thread, burniswright addressed OCF's question about which NeLers would have been moved off centerfield in the majors:

I would have moved Brown to an outfield corner, definitely. Perhaps Bell to left too, because of his weak arm. But then there's the Ashburn precedent, etc. And Irvin wasn't a centerfielder at all. The rest are legit CFers though.

What list is Martin Dihigo on? Will he be considered a pitcher?

Martin Dihigo is listed as a pitcher in the Plaque Room.

Finally, we get to see a real Mantle vs. Mays debate...

It's really a four-way debate: Mantle, Mays, Cobb, and Charleston, with Speaker cracking the top four for some voters. This has everthing: peak versus career, the importance of CF defense, league strength (NL vs. AL in the 1950's), timeline (fitting Cobb and Speaker in against the moderns), the reliability of Negro League MLE's. If I had to bet right now, I'd bet that Cobb gets the #1 spot, but I wouldn't bet more than my pocket change on that. And unlike our last two elections, this one won't be unanimous.

Starting from the top, I'd say we have to sort out rank order within the following groups (listing in alphabetical order):

This the The Magnificent Seven:

Cobb
Mays
Speaker

Charleston
Mantle

Dimaggio
Stearnes

There may be some ballots that mix these groups, but mostly I think it will shake out about like this, and few other players will break into the top 7.

I'm not ready even to speculate about the rest!

And Irvin wasn't a centerfielder at all.

He had a bad reputation in center?

That was burniswright's line. Is he around to defend it?

In the major leagues, after the age of 30, Irvin did not play CF at all. His bb-ref stats show him as primarily LF with some RF and some 1B. So the question is about his play before then.

That was burniswright's line. Is he around to defend it?

I'm assuming he didn't realize that Irvin was a center fielder in the NeL.

Perhaps Bell to left too, because of his weak arm. But then there's the Ashburn precedent, etc.

I would have been shocked to see him at a corner position with his speed in the majors.

I would have moved Brown to an outfield corner, definitely.

He had a good reputation in center, so I doubt that he couldn't have played it at least adequately in the majors.

Some of the 19th century players probably wouldn't have played CF given our modern understanding of the position - Browning, for instance. But hey, Pete Incaviglia logged 30 or 40 games in center ...

I seem to recall that non-Hall of Merit voters can vote in this, so I'll post my very preliminary sample ballot. I am certain it needs adjustment, and probably quite a bit.

Ty Cobb
Mickey Mantle
Willie Mays
Oscar Charleston
Tris Speaker
Turkey Stearnes
Joe DiMaggio
Cristobal Torriente
Pete Hill
Billy Hamilton
Duke Snider
Monte Irvin
Paul Hines
George Gore
Jimmy Wynn
Larry Doby
Alejandro Oms
Jim O'Rourke
Earl Averill
Edd Roush
Cool Papa Bell
Lip Pike
Richie Ashburn
Willard Brown
Pete Browning
Max Carey
Andre Dawson

Again it probably needs a lot of fine-tuning and adjustment.

Here we have 27 candidates including 7 who are outside the Hall of Fame. I guess that half (13) are outside some PHOMs. In alphabetical order:
the first six, Dawson, Hill, Irvin, Oms, Pike, Roush, Wynn

Two of the leading incumbents for the 2009 election played a lot of centerfield, Reggie Smith and Tommy Leach

==
From the LF ballot thread, my quotation of Chris Cobb and response
[verbatim]
95. Paul Wendt Posted: August 24, 2008 at 04:25 PM (#2914822)
Chris Cobb:
3) The outfield letter grades make for misleading comparisons between outfielders and infielders. If there can be no center fielder with a grade below B-, and that's giving center fielders their due, then how can there be F shortstops? But there are. In fact, the compression of outfield letter grades makes them a particularly poor tool for assessing center fielders, because all "A+" really tells us is that the player was above average in center field. For our purposes, we need to distinguish above average center fielders from great center fielders from among the best of all time in center field. The win shares letter grades are not at all helpful for that purpose. We'll have to look past the letter grades to the fielding rates to identify relative merit for the center fielders.

This is a matter to be continued next week.

We are still missing much of the game-level data to do this adequately --that is, to sort out LF CF and RF as best we can without any play-by-play or spatial data. BJ is wrong to blame lazy 19th century statisticians; for how many 20th century years does he have official LF CF and RF season data?

Anyway, whoever is to blame,
Outfield ratings and grades are based on a single record (except games played) that sums all three outfield positions. In contrast shortstop ratings and grades are based on a pure shortstop record; someone who also played thirdbase also has a thirdbase rating and grade, although few players have more than one published in the Win Shares book. So we do not have a rating and grade for Fielder Jones as a centerfielder, where we do have a rating and grade for George Davis as a shortstop.

==
Some discussion of outfield ratings and of CF ratings, especially in the win shares system, appears near the end of the LF ballot thread.
Visit Esteban Rivera, LF ballot #88 and see also #90-92 (bjhanke, Chris Cobb, DanR).

(sigh) Esteban Rivera, LF ballot #88

The post-1893 MLB'ers, in my WARP:

1. Peach
2. Say Hey
3. Grey Eagle

(gap)

4. Commerce Comet

(gap)

(Charleston, according to Dr. Chaleeko's MLE's)
5. Joltin' Joe (who definitely deserves minor league credit for an excellent 1935)

(gap)

(Griffey)
6. Hamilton
7. Doby
8. Ashburn (DRA thinks he was a historically great CF, and my non-SB baserunning estimator thinks he was a whiz)
9. Duke
(Edmonds)
10. Carey
(Reggie Smith, if he slots here)
11. Wynn
12. Dawson
(Leach, if he slots here)
---in/out---
(Bernie Williams)
13. Averill (including generous minor league credit)
(Dale Murphy)
(Brett Butler)
14. Roush

I've been with the Hall of Merit for a long time, but I wasn't around at the beginning. Can someone who was give a capsule summary of the cases for (or against) Gore, Hines, and O'Rourke? (I note that in post #17, Dan R ducks that particular issue.)

I duck it because I don't do numbers for the pitchers' box era since the run estimators are too unreliable.
BTW, I never got to hear how you got Clark's '89 equal to Cash's '61, OCF. My calculations for the two are on the LF ballot thread.

In the Biographical Encyclopedia, Jim Riley lists 'cf ss 3b' for Monte Irvin, with none of the three bold (primary) or italic (emergency). That means cf first among equals, no primary position, although there are some mistakes in execution (bold or italic markup omitted; eg, Roy Campanella 'c 3b of p but the article treats him as a primary catcher).

I like it that any close classifications are put in center.

I do not have any numbers on career shares by fielding position for the Negro Leagues. For the major leaguers here are the full seasons (not shares) for games played, fielding games, outfield games, and centerfield games.

Career Games, full seasons equivalent

For maybe useful or interesting comparision here are the other HOM members with at least 2 full seasons in centerfield followed by some "strong" candidates for 2009.

Career Games, full seasons equivalent

CF seasons, career rank for our top ten
1 Mays
2 Speaker
(gap, 3 seasons)
4 Cobb
6 Hines
9 Ashburn
16 Roush
18 Mantle
20 Carey
24 DiMaggio
26 Gore

Dan, I'm at the mercy of a secondary source - a Stats Handbook that I latched onto and have stayed with for stability. It really does compute that Clark had that many RC and made so few outs -if there's something that's off the wall, it's in that computation.

Mays and Speaker at CF rank #3-4 at any fielding position behind Anson, 1B and Brook Robinson, 3B.

That was burniswright's line. Is he around to defend it?


I'm assuming he didn't realize that Irvin was a center fielder in the NeL.

Since burniswright is possibly one of the most knowledgeable researchers on the Negro Leagues, I highly doubt this is the case.

Um. Can anyone tell me how to navigate this site to the Jim O'Rourke thread? I intend to post up a full walk-through of my Plausibility Test method, because Jim was actually the #1 poster boy when I developed it. However, there may be (likely is) info on that thread that you guys already know and don't need in the post. There's also almost certainly some info that I don't know that will help. But I can't find the thread. How do you get there? Sorry to be a novice, but novice I am. - Brock

Finding A Player Thread:

1. Go to the HoM front page, and go up to the "Welcome" post at the top.
2. Click on "Important Links"
3. Click on "Selected 19th Century Players", "Selected 20th Century Players" or "Selected Negro League Players" (the last one may be phrased a little different).
4. Find the player you want.

There isn't actually much in the O'Rourke thread, because we didn't really have the player thread concept back then.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/jim_orourke

Since burniswright is possibly one of the most knowledgeable researchers on the Negro Leagues, I highly doubt this is the case.

Then I don't understand his statement.

I've pretty much always considered Dawson, Brown, Irvin and Browning at RF. I have an incredible 8 players on this ballot as not PHoM which is the most of any position. There are also some marginal HoM guys. Am I underrating CF or is the electorate CF crazy?

1) Ty Cobb
2) Willie Mays - two top 10 players lead off the ballot and they're close. Mays gets 1 year bonus credit for Korea.
3) Tris Speaker - Mays needed the credit to top Speaker. He's that good.
4) Mickey Mantle
5) Oscar Charleston
6) Joe DiMaggio - Speaker and DiMaggio should have their relative fame swapped. Not giving minor league credit, maybe I should. Still a top 40 player.
7) Turkey Stearnes - a guess that seems to match consensus and wasn't influenced by the consensus
8) Billy Hamilton
9) Cristobal Torriente
10) Jim O'Rourke - How the heck did he get into the top 10?! I might be wrong here.
11) Max Carey - 10.3 Base Running Wins Above Average and 13.6 Fielding Wins Above Average.
12) Paul Hines
13) Duke Snider - only a fair defender in comparison to the rest of the group
14) Richie Ashburn - Pretty much tied with Snider, baserunning and defense closes the gap.
(Tommy Leach)
(Reggie Smith)
15) Pete Hill
16) Larry Doby - I'm not thrilled with anyone down this far. 2 years NgL credit - let me know if he deserves more.
17) George Gore
18) Alejandro Oms - not PHoM but likely to be elected in the next couple years. In the top 5-10 of not PHoM. Dan R translation of MLE's might accelerate that.
19) Monte Irvin - my current credit is a bad guess at best. Could move up.
(Dom DiMaggio - not PHoM)
20) Cool Papa Bell - Everyone here on out is not PHoM
21) Jim Wynn
22) Andre Dawson
(Hugh Duffy)
23) Earl Averill - only 1 year minor league credit
(George Van Haltren)
(Chet Lemon)
(Roy Thomas)
(Fielder Jones)
24) Edd Roush - this is with holdout credit
(Cesar Cedeno)
(Kirby Puckett)
(Vada Pinson)
25) Willard Brown - clearly a mistake, couldn't (or didn't) field, bat wasn't that great. All the discussion from contemporaries was that his results never matched his talent because he didn't try hard enough. My least favorite player in the HoM.
(Willie Davis)
(Spots Poles)
26) Pete Browning - awful defender, weak leagues

XX) Lip Pike - unranked, not enough info yet

Clearly there is a lot of opportunity for MLEs to impact this ballot.

DL from MN, Mays should get two years for Korea, '52 and '53, no? Still, it shouldn't be enough to get him past Cobb. Also, Speaker is not in your top 10?

DL has Speaker at #3.

Top 10 position players period, I meant, not just CF.

Ah, my bad.

Wait, you're right. Mays & Speaker are 8/9. I gave Mays a full season at the 175 OPS+ level of his following years. Maybe that isn't the same as his proper credit but it was close enough at the time.

Mantle and Charleston are top 25. DiMaggio and Stearns are top 50. Billy Hamilton is down around 120. There is a concentration of talent at the top and a whole lot of dreck at the bottom on this list.

I used my war credit equations for Mays and posted the results on his thread. It's 6.4 WARP2 for '52 (including the part that he played), and 6.8 for '53.

Wow, I didn't realize Carey was a +100 baserunner. That 51 SB/2 CS performance in the 1922 NL (a league where an average baserunner in his opportunities would have had 11 SB and 10 CS) is really quite a feat. Just back-of-the-envelope, that's an 11-run differential, and then you have estimated non-SB running on top of that. Hot dang. Ya know, if you just look at the years where CS data was recorded, Carey averages 0.9 BRWAA a season; in the years where I have to rely on my equation to estimate his CS, I'm only giving him 0.4 a year. I could see crediting him with an extra 0.3 BRWAA a year for 1911-14 and 17-19, since his success rate was clearly better than what you'd expect just from knowing his SB attempt rate. That certainly wouldn't get him up to Snider territory on my ballot, though.

And DRA confirms Carey's defensive brilliance, giving him a +141 score which is 50 runs better than anyone else of his era. Carey's really a rival to Ozzie Smith in the "most non-hitting value" category.

Prelim only, I'm sure there will be some not-insignificant changes:

1. Mays
2. Charleston
3. Cobb
4. Mantle
Very tightly-bunched group, with a good deal of conjecture playing into Charleston's ranking. Fair enough to say, I think, that along with Gibson and Lloyd, Oscar's in the conversation as to the best Negro League position player ever. I don't think it's unfair to rank him top-3 of all time. Willie gets the edge over Charleston due to the reliability of the data; he nips Cobb due to defense and quality-of-competition; and he bests Mantle on defense (though Mickey was pretty good when he still had knees) and longetivity. Strictly as a peak/prime hitter, I may rank Mantle ahead of Cobb, definitely ahead of Mays and Charleston -- but I'm looking at the whole picture here. In the first peak vs. career showdown, career wins.


5. Speaker
6. DiMaggio
Career wins here, too.

7. Stearnes
8. Snider
9. Hamilton
10. Torriente
11. O'Rourke
Honestly don't know what the hell I'm doing with this group. Stearnes and Torriente are clear and deserving HoMers, Hamilton was possibly the best leadoff man of all time before Rickey came along, the Duke wasn't Willie or Mickey, but he was a damn fine ballplayer. Jim O'Rourke played all over the field and was one of the first true GREAT professional baseball players. Duke is the only one with whose ranking I feel truly comfortable, though.

12. Wynn
13. Doby
14. Carey
Very slight "timeline" and the fact that he played in some godawful parks for hitters give Wynn the nod over Doby for me. Max Carey was a brilliant baserunner and fielder.

15. Irvin
16. Brown
Irvin is hard to rank, so I did my best. Brown isn't at the same level as Stearnes or Torriente.

17. Gore
18. Ashburn
19. Bell
To call Cool Papa Bell the Lou Brock of the Negro Leagues is probably unfair. I'm sure Cool Papa had a better glove than Lou. Ashburn's D is probably overrated because of all those fly balls off Robin Roberts (though he was definitely quite good, and a good leadoff man). I think Gore was probably better than 'em both, but might be convinced otherwise.

20. Hines
21. Hill
22. Oms
I don't have the best grasp on any of these guys.

23. Roush
24. Browning
25. Pike
26. Averill
Lip Pike was supposedly faster than a horse. That's all I know about him. Earl Averill would rank higher if he'd picked up a bat before he was in his mid-20s. Pete Browning dominated weaker competition in the AA, and didn't have much of a glove (great hitter, nonetheless). Edd Roush was a brilliant defender, good batter, and had a devil of a time staying healthy.

27. Dawson
Really? I wouldn't have voted for the Hawk.

It seems that 17 of our 27 CFs are in DL's personal HOM --plus Reggie Smith and Tommy Leach, don't go away this winter.

Am I underrating CF or is the electorate CF crazy?
. . .
22) Andre Dawson [= #25 overall, considering Smith, Leach, and Dom DiMaggio]
(Hugh Duffy)
23) Earl Averill - only 1 year minor league credit
(George Van Haltren)
(Chet Lemon)
(Roy Thomas)
(Fielder Jones)
24) Edd Roush - this is with holdout credit
(Cesar Cedeno)
(Kirby Puckett)
(Vada Pinson)
25) Willard Brown [= #35 overall]</i>

DL,
For sure you are either underrating CF generally or overrating Chet Lemon specifically. Probably the former because I don't recall any votes cast to Lemon (a very good player).

If you are right about the phenomenon there may be something about the distribution of skills and positions on the field. What happens when players decline? Is it true that most centerfielders, even at #15 and #30 all-time, provide only a little value? and true that LFs and RFs, commonly provide more than a little value? I'm sure it's true that LF or RF is more likely to fill a role as full- or part-time 1B or DH, but I doubt that explains much. Maybe we will judge that there is nothing to explain.

I'll ask the question and then go look for the thread. What happened to Wally Berger?

The share of outfield games played in centerfield is useful for interpreting Bill James letter grades, or for your own take on cumulative outfielding statistics. What else?

Share of Outfield games played in Center (career fse, percent)


In this CF poll (above the break):
Hines, Mantle, and Dawson played less than 90% of their games in the outfield; Pike and Browning less than 80%; O'Rourke less than 70%.

Wally Berger became eligible in 1946. In the 1946 through 1950 elections, Berger received 31, 26, 0, 14, and 12 points. His best friend was always Mike Webber (Mike didn't vote in 1948, hence the zero.) But it came down to just Mike voting for him. At some point between 1950 and 2008, Berger slid off Mike's ballot and now receives no votes. I think it's mostly a case of his effective career being just too short. I have him rated fairly close to Bobby Murcer, but Murcer has more career and lower career rate stats. He's good enough to be worthy of our attention, but that seems to be as far as it got.

Speaker below Mantle? The Grey Eagle basically matches the Mick on peak and has all sorts of career on him. I see that you mention a quality of competition/timeline factor, but I'm not really sure that should tip the balance to Mantle here. Although Speaker didn't have to play against black players, he was playing in an *extremely* strong AL, one which had practically every star in the game save Alexander. By contrast, Mantle was playing in the far weaker, unintegrated league in the '50s. I think if there's a league strength argument to be had here, it goes to Tris. As for Ashburn's fielding, DRA takes explicit account of a pitching staff's flyball tendencies and still sees him as a superlative, historically great defensive CF.

So besides DiMaggio and Mays, does anyone else deserve war credit? Maybe Speaker/Cobb/Roush for 18-19 short seasons. What about the Negro Leaguers Bell, Brown, Doby, and Irvin? What about Hill and Charleston for WWI? I don't really know.

So why did Max Carey play less than 70% of his outfield games in center?

In his LF ballot Brock Hanke ranked Fred Clarke and remarked, in part,
I tend to think of Fred Clarke as what would have happened to Jimmy Sheckard if Sheckard had become his own manager. When Clarke gets started in Louisville, he's playing left field while a revolving door is open in center, just like Sheckard. Why his managers never tried him there, I may never know. As soon as he becomes manager, the revolving door stops in center field. First, it's Dummy Hoy. Then Ginger Beaumont. Then Tommy Leach. And that's it. The odd thing is that, of the three, only Leach was certainly a better center fielder than Clarke would have been. But at least Clarke realized the value of having a star in center. Sheckard played next to a new guy almost every year. Clarke also understood what he could and could not do as a hitter, with the result that his placement in his batting orders makes sense, and the shape of his stats remains more or less consistent.

That is more about Sheckard than Tommy Leach or Max Carey(!) but because Carey is now on the board, note that he was a rookie during Clarke's last season as a regular player. As a rookie Carey played a lot of centerfield: 46 left, 76 center. Clarke played 101 left and Leach played 89 center; they played 110 and 108 games total.
more details at season level:
1911 Pittsburgh Pirates

Next year Clarke moved him to left. I have wondered, unsure whether I am joking, whether Clarke's overrated the position because he played there. Max Carey remained in left thruout Clarke's tenure on the bench capped by the 1915 season: 139 games, all in left, beside a revolving door of centerfielders?
1915 Pittsburgh Pirates at baseball-reference

Next year 1916 under new manager Jimmy Callahan, Carey played 21 games in left and 134 in center. Probable late 1915 incumbent Ed Bailey played 20 games in center. Beginning 1916 he played 10-1/2 years in center for Pittsburgh, only 3 games in left and none in right.

Max Carey led NL outfielders in putouts nine times, 2 in left (1912-13) and 7 in center (1916-18, 21-24). He led in 1921 playing barely 90% of team games, 139/154. Otherwise he played about 90% in 1915 and didn't lead; played more than 95% nine times and led in putouts all but 1914. He played about 45% of the 1919 season, 85% of 1920 and 1925. He was moved to Brooklyn in August 1926 having played 75% of the first two-thirds.
Max Carey at Retrosheet (includes dailies and splits for 1911 and 1921-22)

Next year Clarke moved him to left. I have wondered, unsure whether I am joking, whether Clarke's overrated the position because he played there.

Exposition Park (1890-1909) was 400 ft down the lines, and 450 ft to CF, so maybe you really needed a "CF calibre" OF'er in LF and RF. During 1909, Pittsburgh moved into Forbes, which wasn't quite as extreme, but still had a spacious OF.

Regarding the "percent CF" data in #40
>>
40. Paul Wendt Posted: August 25, 2008 at 04:16 PM (#2915695)
The share of outfield games played in centerfield is useful for interpreting Bill James letter grades, or for your own take on cumulative outfielding statistics. What else?

Share of Outfield games played in Center (career fse, percent)
<<

Handle with Care, especially for Pike, O'Rourke, Hines, Gore, and Browning.

That table gives the share of full seasons, not the share of raw games. Bill James's career win shares weight play in LF, CF, and RF by share of raw games played at each position, because they are generated by official OF statistics without adjustment for the length of the season in games. The same is true of any fielding rating that uses official statistics simply.

Note also that Bill James's career win shares begin in 1876; at least, so do the 2001 ws rates that underly fielding letter grades.

Since burniswright is possibly one of the most knowledgeable researchers on the Negro Leagues, I highly doubt this is the case.


Then I don't understand his statement.

I can't speak for him obviously, but I'm guessing that it may be because Irvin didn't play much CF beyond age 23 or so?

43. ronw Posted: August 25, 2008 at 04:29 PM (#2915702)
So besides DiMaggio and Mays, does anyone else deserve war credit? Maybe Speaker/Cobb/Roush for 18-19 short seasons. What about the Negro Leaguers Bell, Brown, Doby, and Irvin? What about Hill and Charleston for WWI? I don't really know.

Relying on Neft & Cohen, none of Cobb, Speaker, Roush, and Carey missed any of the baseball season for military or civilian war work. Cobb and Roush missed games of course. Carey played only 63 games or 45% in 1919 because of illness ('IL').

For the major leaguers, add 20% to 1918 and 10% to 1919.

On page 2 of "Oscar Charleston" it seems that the same is appropriate for major league equivalents by Chris Cobb or Eric Chalek. Or maybe not. If your direct source is Chalek or DanR see also page 1 #63, 74, 87, 90.
90. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 15, 2007 at 12:47 PM (#2615821)
Also, Eric, do your MLE's for 1918-19 take into account the shortened season? I was translating them to 128- and 140-game schedules, and they are the two highest SFrac's of his career.

Holway's positional listings back up burniswright's claim that Irvin was not a centerfielder, really. Here's what Holway has:

1939 -- RF
1940 -- CF
1941 -- SS
1942 -- ?? (Mexico)
1943-45 military service
1946 -- SS
1947 -- SS
1948 -- LF

When we match this with Irvin's major-league games played,

1B - 104 g
3B - 8 g
LF - 507 g
CF - 1 g
RF - 87 g

The case for centerfield looks thin, even if he played in centerfield in Mexico and in the minors, he was unlikely to have more playing time there than at LF or SS.

It's unfortunate that this issue is arising only now. We have been able to bump other players to later positions, but the left field and SS trains have already left the station.

Not sure if there's a good solution for this. . .

I wonder how we got Irvin into CF in the first place?

Prelim

And I mean prelim. Still, I'm hoping to keep my consensus score low.

1. Mantle--probably the greatest player of all-time at his absolute peak. e.g. 1956
2. Charleston--BJ has him #1 among CF
3. Mays
4. Speaker--ranks behind Cobb overall, but as a CF ranks ahead
5. Cobb--a giant pain in the ass to have around, anyway

(big gap)

6. DiMaggio
(Griffey)

(gap)

7. Snider
8. Stearns--these 2 in alpha order for now

(Puckett)

9. Hamilton
10. Torriente

(gap)

11. Doby
12. Roush

(gap)

Everybody from here on down subject to more evaluation. Whoever is #13 and #14 is going to feel like they're rated too high. The 19C guys might be too low, which is for methodological reasons right now. I will do some correcting for that. Hines, O'Rourke, Gore (and Duffy) could end up in those over-rated slots. Irvin also ended up too low, swap he and Bell and you're getting close.

13. Pike
14. Dawson
(Duffy)
15. Hines
16. O'Rourke
(D. Murphy)
17. Carey
(H. Wilson)
18. Bell
19. Gore
(Berger)
20. J. Wynn
21. Browning
22. Irvin
(Lynn)
23. W. Brown
24. Averill
25. Ashburn
26. Oms
27. Hill

4. Speaker--ranks behind Cobb overall, but as a CF ranks ahead
5. Cobb--a giant pain in the ass to have around, anyway

I believe we are ranking players as players, are we not, just grouping players by their primary positions?

I suppose now is a good time for all of us to check what we actually said on the 1934 ballot. I had the same top three as sunnyday2: Cobb-Collins-Speaker. Brent is the only voter to have put Speaker ahead of Cobb.

1. Mantle--probably the greatest player of all-time at his absolute peak. e.g. 1956

i.e. "eligible" player

The clearest spot for my ballot is #6. DiMaggio.

Ranking the top 5 is more art than science, and I am most defintiely more an engineer-type than artist. I'm more career than peak, thus Mays over Mantle (espec when adding league strength!), else I'd have it the other way. Cobb I treat like Hornsby and Allen; as a GM starting a team, I'd pick some other guys first if it's close. Speaker may have been the most valuable ballhawk (him or Mays) ever, but his incredible assist totals would have been much lower in the past 75 years; he could not have played his exTREMEly shallow CF today. Charleston - glad he's recognized as historically underappreciated, but I think it's clear that Josh Gibson was a much better hitter; justifying Oscar as good as better than these others is tough.

So my alltime top10 ranks as of "2002" are
Ruth Wagner Mays Johnson Gibson Aaron Mantle Cobb Musial (with Speaker about 16th)

oops, forgot Ted. He's a notch above the Big Train.

Regarding Paul's post #44: I am of the opinion that Paul has it mostly right. Fred Clarke played in a ballpark that really required a center fielder in left. Although Forbes was smaller, it wasn't small, and most hitters were righties. Clarke probably saw no reason to discard his preference, and so played Max Carey in left. The new manager, seeing the new ballpark, thought that Fred's concept was outdated. Considering Carey's stats in left, I consider him to be a full time center fielder who was used oddly due to the needs of his ballpark and the preference of his manager.

The main point I was trying to make in the section Paul quoted was that Fred Clarke had control of who played where because he was the manager. He made a conscious decision that, good as he was, he was going to play left and was going to make sure that he had a center fielder who was at least as good as he was and preferably better. Being the manager, he was able to act on his opinion. Jimmy Sheckard wasn't in control of where he played. Sometimes, his manager had a center fielder who allowed him Fred Clarke's excuse, sometimes not. But Sheckard always ended up in left, which I thought odd. Carey's progression makes sense, given the managers.

Another thing about Carey. There are three center fielders from his time in the top 6 all time in games played of all center fielders (50% in center): Cobb, Speaker, and Carey. There's no one else from that period who is close. As I read the accounts of the time, observers then, although they didn't think that Carey was as good as Cobb or Speaker, were willing to put him in a class with them, way above all the other center fielders of the time. He was certainly the best center fielder in the NL. The point of this is that Carey has a VERY long career, even by modern standards, and it wasn't because his teams were blind to his weaknesses. It was because he really was that good. He was able to play a lot of years before he sank to replacement rate or even below the Starting Line (the point at which you are still a major league player, but not a starter). If you're a career-first voter, I imagine that's interesting. Even to me, who tries to balance between career and peak, it's worth knowing. Peak-first voters may not care so much.

My Prelim - Subject to change

I feel 'comfortable' that I am WRONG about Speaker. I'll keep looking to see why he comes out so low in my system.

1. Willie Mays
2. Ty Cobb
3. Mickey Mantle
4. Oscar Charleston
5. Joe DiMaggio
6. Turkey Stearnes
7. Billy Hamilton
8. Cristobal Torriente
9. Duke Snider
10. Tris Speaker

(Looks like I'm not going to top the consensus scores this time out)

11. Larry Doby
12. Pete Hill
13. Richie Ashburn
14. Jim O'Rourke
15. Jimmy Wynn
16. Paul Hines
17. Edd Roush
18. Max Carey
19. George Gore
20. Cool Papa Bell
21. Monte Irvin
22. Willard Brown
23. Lip Pike
24. Andre Dawson
25. Earl Averill
--out line--
26. Alenjandro Oms
27. Pete Browning

Our big miss at CF - George van Haltren

52. OCF Posted: August 25, 2008 at 06:13 PM (#2915787)
I suppose now is a good time for all of us to check what we actually said on the 1934 ballot.
But don't hold yourself to it!

Regarding coincidence of careers in CF, here is something I noticed a couple years ago, updated to include 2007-2008.

Career CF fielding time (rank by full seasons equivalent games)
#23. Jim Edmonds (approximate eight-way tie #23-30)
#23. Andruw Jones (approximate eight-way tie #23-30)
14. Bernie Williams (retired 2006)
12. Marquis Grissom (retired 2005)
11. Kenny Lofton (83 CF games, 2007)
7. Ken Griffey (back in CF, August 2008)
3. Steve Finley (26 CF games, 2007)


Another thing about Carey. There are three center fielders from his time in the top 6 all time in games played of all center fielders (50% in center): Cobb, Speaker, and Carey.

Through 1996 they ranked 1-3-5 around Mays and Aaron, by outfield time measured in full seasons. Henderson and Bonds have joined Aaron as outfielding leaders who did not play much in center.

I believe we are ranking players as players, are we not, just grouping players by their primary positions?

Correct. Therefore, if you think Cobb's full career was better than Speaker's, then the Georgia Peach has to be above the Grey Eagle. We're not comparing Cobb just in center to Speaker at the same position.

I feel 'comfortable' that I am WRONG about Speaker.

Same here, Rusty. ;-)

all together sing this song
Rusty's wrong, Rusty's wrong
c'mon all, let's sing along
Rusty's really wrong

Rusty Priske,

Well, for starters, why don't we compare Speaker to the #1 man on your list, Willie Mays.

Career OPS+: Speaker 158, Mays 156

Career length (inc. war credit): Mays 20.5 full seasons, Speaker 18.75 full seasons

Durability: Neither missed more than a few games per year.

Peak OPS+: Mays 184/175/175/174/174, Speaker 188/185/182/181/179

Fielding: Both have an excellent claim to be the top defensive CF ever, both by statistics and reputation.

Baserunning: Mays Excellent, Speaker Good

Relative league strength: Both played in the much stronger league during periods of very large AL/NL disparity. Speaker was playing in a segregated league, but Mays got to take advantage of the 1962 expansion.

Positional value on the defensive spectrum: It was a bit tougher to find CF offense in Mays's time than in Speaker's.

I think Mays and Speaker may have more in common than any two long-career players in history. You have to dig down into the very nitty-gritty--baserunning, the value of CF, and league strength--to get Mays a bit ahead. But it's hard to see how they wouldn't be right next to each other on almost every ballot.

I feel 'comfortable' that I am WRONG about Speaker. I'll keep looking to see why he comes out so low in my system.

Top 10 reasons Rusty is ranking Tris so low:

10. He's just counting Speaker's Cleveland years.
9. Some kid named Tristram always picked on everyone in Rusty's 3rd grade class.
8. Speaker made Cobb throw those games in 1919.
7. Aliens, just ... aliens.
6. With all these unanimous #1s, we've been in agreement far too long.
5. Still peeved that he had to vote for a catcher in the catcher's ballot.
4. That's where the #10 dart landed.
3. Speaker was a far worse 40 year old Philadelphia Athletic than Ty Cobb.
2. He doesn't trust anyone from Texas.

And the #1 reason Speaker ranks so low on Rusty's ballot . . .

1. Duke Snider was freaking AWESOME.



We love you Rusty, but you should probably check your system. Most of us have Speaker much closer to the #10 player all-time than the #10 centerfielder. However, I can easily see arguments for Mays, Cobb, Mantle and Charleston over Speaker. You've got to really give some war credit to get DiMaggio over Speaker and I guess none of us really knows how good Turkey Stearnes or Cristobal Torriente were. However, I don't see any argument for Billy Hamilton and Duke Snider over Speaker.

Hey guys, I said I KNEW I was wrong! Cut me some slack! :)


In fact I have already found a numerical error in my sheet and he has already moved up to #5, between Oscar Charleston and Joe DiMaggio.

Now I'm doublechecking the whole thing.

Oh, but reason #2 could be valid as well.

Or maybe #7.

I still say we move Monte Irvin to the RF rankings. He wasn't a CF but he was a corner OF who played some RF. It would also give me some time to improve my evaluation which is currently just tripling his MLB career value.

Lip Pike didn't play that many years (crediting 13) which will keep him down near the bottom of my list.

Here's one of my RCAA-related charts. Some caveats: it relies on a secondary source, with results that may occasionally be squirrelly (see W. Clark, 1989). I've put in no league strength adjustments (except for 1943-45); those will matter a great deal for Mantle vs. Mays and for Browning vs. everyone. I've put in no adjustments for schedule length - mostly, the system isn't very sensitive to schedule length, but it does start to matter for 19th century guys, maybe especially Browning. Doby's line is major league only - for him, and for anyone else you'd assign extra credit to, add it yourself. And the big caveat: this is offense-only. There are other differences between Hack Wilson and Max Carey. I never worked up Billy Hamilton even though he's a contemporary of GVH, Duffy, Ryan, and Browning because he was elected before I started doing this. This is no help with Gore, Hines, O'Rourke, Browning, Irvin, or any of the fully Negro League players.

A number of more modern players - Murphy, Murcer, Cedeno, Lynn, among others - would fit somewhere on this list by offense, but I left them off.

I still say we move Monte Irvin to the RF rankings. He wasn't a CF but he was a corner OF who played some RF.

Except he played more prorated games in CF than he did in RF and had his best years at that position. I can't see any case for him as anything but a center fielder, unless someone can prove that he was below average as a fielder.

Except he played more prorated games in CF than he did in RF and had his best years at that position. I can't see any case for him as anything but a center fielder, unless someone can prove that he was below average as a fielder.

John, on what basis are you making that claim?

The evidence reviewed recently on Irvin's thread turns up direct evidence that Irvin was a center fielder for one full season, 1940, and he may have played there part of 1946 and 1947.

What are you seeing that the rest of us who have been discussing the question over there haven't found?

Trying to fight my way around the top handful. I see a quadrilateral here: you can compare contemporaries Cobb/Speaker and Mantle/Mays, you can compare defensive monsters Mays and Speaker, and you can compare the offense-first candidates Cobb and Mantle.

I've got Cobb over Speaker (and when I voted in 1934, I found room to put Collins in between). As long Cobb was just a pretty good defensive CF, there's no way to overcome that much of a difference in offense. The difference of about .025 in BA, with no compensation in any other part of the offensive record, is just too much. The lines in my post #67 have Cobb clearly ahead of Speaker offensively for nearly every sorted year of their very long careers.

Mays vs. Mantle: now you're talking peak versus career, and offense versus defense. I'm showing a huge offensive peak advantage for Mantle, but: (1) using RC is very friendly to OBP, which I like, but it may overdo things slightly for the most extremely good take-and-rake hitters, like Mantle, (2) there is the matter of the league strength difference, and (3) Mays was better on defense. I think I'd still say Mantle had higher peak, but those tendencies bring the margin down to something manageable. And while I'm not a strict career voter by any means, I have career-leaning biases. (Biases that tend to steer me away from the likes of Jennings, McGraw, and Chance.) So I wind up with Mays ahead of Mantle.

Mays versus Speaker: The chart in #67 give the offensive advantage to Speaker for about a 5-year peak, but Mays gets some of that back on prime-shoulder seasons. Squeezing a little Korea credit in would tip the career scales to Mays (although Mays wasn't yet fully developed in those years.) I don't really know how to compare their defense - they both have the big reputation, and both would have had to adapt their styles if forced to play in the other's world. The way I like to combine things, I have it as either even or leaning to Mays. Then what about league strength? Speaker played in a strong league, but the integration-era NL was a really strong league. So my final result is Mays ahead of Speaker.

Cobb versus Mantle: they've both got gigantic offensive peaks. Cobb blows Mantle away on career. So this one is easy.

Unfortunately, it looks like I can't really settle this without dealing with the diagonals of my quadrilateral: Mays versus Cobb, and Speaker versus Mantle. Those are harder comparisons to make, and so is comparing any of them to Charleston - although what I'm reading on the Charleston thread suggests that while he had a great peak, the back half of his career dropped off enough to drop him below the three career candidates here in Cobb, Mays, and Speaker.

Preliminarily: 1. Cobb, 2. Mays, 3. Speaker, 4. Mantle, 5. Charleston, 6. DiMaggio.

And on the other end: I never voted for Dawson (and, from above, I've got to see Dawson landing below Carey because of the defense). I hadn't voted for Browning for 50 years. I never voted for Pike. Dawson, Browning, and Pike, in some order, are probably my bottom three, although I wasn't that much a fan of Bell, either.

RE: Monte Irvin

I think we need to figure out what position he should be ranked at (sounds like LF to me based on what I read above), and ask the voters in that election to slot Irvin and re-tally the votes. We need to get it right, even if it's slightly painful.

That doesn't mean everyone has to submit a new ballot. Just let us know where you'd put Irvin had he been eligible. Ballot counters, is it easy to just slot in a new player? Or would it be necessary to have everyone re-list each player?

If everyone who voted were to say something like "Irvin should be 9th, right behind Billy Williams, whom I had 8th" or some single sentence like that, I could figure out how to tally it. But I'm not so sure that we could get everyone's replies.

At this point, I'd prefer one of the following approaches:

1. Slot Irvin at the wrong position anyway. The only question is, which wrong position? I'd be inclined to say RF. (Actually, I never wanted to separate RF from LF anyway. We should have been comparing Sheckard to Clemente and Sam Thompson to Kiner.)

2. Wait until after the 2009 election, and re-open the whole LF election, this time with Rickey Henderson included (although I already suspect Henderson would be near-unanimous 3rd.)

Those are reasonable approaches OCF, but I'd still rather include him in the correct spot now. Very good to know that a sentence would be enough and you efforts are much appreciated.

I'm pretty sure we could get the responses, either through emails or through a mass email through the yahoo groups. They cared enough to vote, I would assume they'd care enough to adjust if necessary.

I have no opinion on where to place Monte Irvin. However, I'm about to go out of town again, for the last time this year, so if I'm going to place him among the left fielders, I'd better do it now. I took a look at the fine Irvin thread, thought about it for a bit, and decided to vote him 15th on my ballot, between Medwick and Minoso. The thread's comparison with Medwick was a real help, as they do turn out to look similar. I'm not sure Irvin was better than Minoso, but I'm pretty sure they were really close. - Brock

Thanks Brock!

If Dan R translates a set of MLEs into his WARP for Irvin I can rank him in a minute or two. Without him doing the legwork it's going to take me a little while.

Actually it got easier once I looked into it. There's a 5 point gap between Al Simmons and Jimmy Sheckard in my spreadsheet. I don't know exactly where Monte Irvin will fall but it is highly likely to be somewhere in there. Slot him at 10th between them on my revised LF ballot.

I would have Irvin 12th among LFs, between Magee and Billy Williams.

And my CF prelim:

1. Cobb
2. Mantle...The peak wins out, barely. The 2-4 spots are incredibly tight, though.
3. Mays
4. Speaker
5. Charleston

6. DiMaggio
7. Stearnes...or maybe the other way around?

8. Torriente
9. Hamilton...or maybe the other way around?

10. Hines
11. Snider
12. Gore

13. Doby
14. O'Rourke

15. Pike...like most everyone, I'm hazy on him. From here to Carey is pretty close and has a lot of mist in it. Order could change dramatically.
16. Browning
17. Hill...also very hazy.
18. Brown
19. Averill
20. Wynn
21. Roush
22. Oms
23. Ashburn...not pHOM, but close, shouldn't be long.
24. Carey...also not pHOM. Hasn't been that close, but upon reflection probably should be--similar to Ashburn overall in my system.

25. Bell...not pHOM, not close. I know some of the lack of peak in the MLEs is just the flattening effect, but...well, the effect would have to be pretty big here for him to have the kind of peak I'd want to see.
26. Dawson...sort of the opposite of Carey among the non-pHOMers--he's been close, but I'm now wondering why. I don't think he'll be close from here on.

If Irvin were to remain among the CFs, he'd slot in between Pike and Browning.

Marc sunnyday,

After the two gaps that others see above and below Joltin' Joe you see the third one between Snider, Stearnes, Puckett, Hamilton, Torriente and #11-12 on your prelim ballot, Doby and Roush; the fourth one between that pair and the field.

Wow, Edd Roush #12 of 27 . . .
and Andre Dawson provisionally the median #14. Provisionally you must be the best friend of both, quite unexpected.

11. Doby
12. Roush

(gap)

Everybody from here on down subject to more evaluation. Whoever is #13 and #14 is going to feel like they're rated too high. The 19C guys might be too low, which is for methodological reasons right now. I will do some correcting for that. Hines, O'Rourke, Gore (and Duffy) could end up in those over-rated slots. Irvin also ended up too low, swap he and Bell and you're getting close.

13. Pike
14. Dawson
(Duffy)
15. Hines

Both the word "gap" and that prose imply #13 is the upside for Paul Hines (or O'Rourke, Gore, Duffy). Is there any reason why Lip Pike is provisionally ahead of those four? For the group, Hines and Gore were winners of the first election and they rank #3 and #5 among all 21 non-HOFers in Cooperstown's pre-1943 jurisdiction. Lip Pike finally made it during a brief WWII era lull. A career voter might shun Gore; neither peakist, primist nor careerist should shun Hines. Win Shares makes Hines MVP three times and Gore twice (no pitchers, including one tie for each).

For 15 years beginning at age 19 Paul Hines was an "every day" player and a regular CF, batting OPS+ 140 over the middle 13 seasons. (The 15 include one season at 89% of team games; two seasons split between two fielding positions CF-2B and LF-CF.) Win shares awards him 7 Gold Gloves in the first nine NL seasons [76, 79-84] and letter grade A- despite the expanding schedules that amplify his declining years.
Here are his fielding Rates according to Clay Davenport for his first 11 seasons, 1874 thru that run of Gold Gloves.

119 124 138 _86 101 119 127 115 112 118 117

(That '86 101' is 1877-78, the two seasons win shares does not award him GG. That '86' matches his one klunker at bat, OPS+ 95, and it is the one season split between CF and LF, where Davenport rates him 78!)

For his last four seasons as regular CF,

95 96 91 87 ; and finally less than 80 in 130 games at CF, 1890 plus 1892.

Unfortunately for his career rate statistics (as a batter too), underline marks the expansions to 98, 112, 126, and 140 games.
:-(

A note about Sliding Billy Hamilton. I'm a Hamilton fan, I'll admit. And the main slam against him is a short career. So I thought I'd check to see just how short it was, within his time. BB-Ref allowed me to do this, thank you. In the time frame 1871-1910, which includes 9 years after Hamilton's retirement, Billy has the 6th longest career of anyone who played at least 50% of their time in center. Oddly, two of the guys who outrank him came up within a year of him and retired within two. If you run the time frame out to 1920, Hamilton is still tenth. A clue as to what's happening can be found in the first spot. It's Ty Cobb, who still has almost a decade left in him. The guys from the 20th century are taking over. Still, even if you run the time frame out to 1930, Hamilton is 13th. Overall, I give Hamilton credit for a long career, but not a really long one. As with Jimmy Collins and Home Run Baker, he just played at a time that chewed up players. Center field is not as bad as third base, but still, Hamilton does not have a short career or even a middling one. He has a LONG career for a center fielder of his time. Paul Hines, BTW, is the real Standard Deviation breaker. His career is enormous by the standards of his time.

Billy also occasionally gets some grey ink in slugging percentage, although that is mostly fueled by his batting averages. His OPS+ is usually in the grey area, even though he has no power. And, like Harry Stovey, he has a lot of undocumented value from baserunning, due to errors and stolen bases. I would guess that Stovey and Hamilton are the two greatest poster boys for this in history, although I may be forgetting a player or three. I expect to be his best friend in the voting, as I have him 6th or 7th, behind the five suspects that I imagine you can all list, and competing with DiMaggio. Well, YOU try comparing two such dissimilar players whose only real similarity is career length, which is phony because of the time periods. It's sort of like voting for Ed Delahanty, except that Hamilton has only one junk year at the beginning of his career. Like Delahanty, his decline phase is brief, although not as brief as Ed's....

finally less than 80 in 130 games at CF, 1890 plus 1892. (oops)

Hines returned to CF for 130 games in 1890 and 1891 at fielding Rate < 80. That covers his CF career, 1874-88 plus 90-91. He played 1B in 1872, not ready for prime time, and in 1889; LF in 1873.

--
Win Shares awards George Gore 7 Gold Gloves in ten seasons 1880-81, 83, 85-87, 89.
Here are his fielding Rates by Davenport beginning one year earlier, 1879.

117 ; 129 120 118 117 116 111 105 109 89 108 ; 92 106 ~100

Semicolon demarcates the 1880s. He didn't play much in 1888 or 1890 and only about half of 1892 with two teams, his finale; italic marks those three seasons. Underline marks the expansions to 98, 112, 126, and 140 games, same as for Hines.

gr-rr

117 ; 129 120 118 117 116 111 105 109 89 108 ; 92 106 ~100

A better estimate of his Rate with two teams in 1892 is ~98.

If you rank Hamilton 7th, you'll only be tied for his best friend. OBP of .455, with tons of speed? Yeah, I'll vote for that.

Yeah, I had Cobb ahead of Speaker, too, back in the day.

What I'm thinkin' now is...no, I didn't set aside Cobb's years in RF. I'm just thinkin' take those years when Cobb played RF, and line them up one-on-one against those same years with Speaker in CF. The total value equation between Cobb and Speaker becomes really really close. Then add in the character issues....

OK, so the character issues aren't germane either. Still I don't see this as a slam dunk anymore, that's all.

As to the 19C guys, i.e. where do Hines and Pike and Gore and O'Rourke go relative to one another, after Hamilton at an obvious #1, I dunno, is Hines obvious at #2?

Oh, and as for Roush, I don't know why that's unexpected, he was on my ballot for 50 years. I think you could argue that he was the best NL position player of the '10s. Of course, you could argue that for a lot of guys. But I see him as analogous if not strictly comparable to Snider. Overshadowed by a strong cast of CF at the time, but a guy who had a very significant impact on several pennant races.

In my own voting record, there's a sharp division between my personal frontloggers and my personal backloggers (or worse). None of the personal backloggers ever got higher than 7th on my ballot, and several of them were elected without being in my top 30 at the time of election. As for the personal frontloggers, the lowest any got was Torriente at 6th, and that was 1934, and you know how that happened. The two borderline cases are Jimmy Wynn, who started out at 11th on my ballot, settled in at around 5-7, then rose to 3 in the year he was elected, and Pete Hill, who was 5th on my ballot in his only year.

Front: Charleston, Cobb, DiMaggio, Doby, Hamilton, Mantle, Mays, Snider, Speaker, Stearns, Torriente.

Middle: Hill, Wynn.

Back: Ashburn, Averill, Bell, Brown, Browning, Carey, Dawson, Irvin, Oms, Pike, Roush.

Before I participated: Gore, Hines, O'Rourke.

Those last three - Gore, Hines, O'Rourke - seem to have been frontloggers (or at least 1-ballot electees) for the group in general, but that was before there was a backlog.

Among O's backloggers, I think that the consensus was that Carey was a front-logger, and Irvin was at least a mid-logger.

What list is Martin Dihigo on? Will he be considered a pitcher?

I guess that one of my comments on the plaque room thread is responsible for him being categorized as a pitcher:

...He played so many positions that it's obviously difficult to single out any one, but if I had to pick one primary position it would be pitcher. From about 1932 on, Dihigo was pretty much a full-time pitcher first and then a utility position player in the games he wasn't pitching.

In another context I have suggested that OCF's frontloggers less Larry Doby will be the top ten at the Hall of Merit.

Marc's gap between Roush and the field effectively puts Roush with Doby to the end of the list of frontloggers.

86. sunnyday2 Posted: August 28, 2008 at 11:48 AM (#2920181)
Oh, and as for Roush, I don't know why that's unexpected, he was on my ballot for 50 years.

On the ballot for 50 years does not alone prepare for rank above the HOM median even at the weakest fielding position. (much the same for Lip Pike, although he was not quite available to support for 50 years)

I think you could argue that he was the best NL position player of the '10s. Of course, you could argue that for a lot of guys.<i>

He played only 1-1/2 Federal League seasons, a miserable spring in New York, and 3-1/2 in Cincinnati. I think it's possible someone would have named him most valuable 1916-19 in a retrospective on what we have seen since the Federal Leaague. I don't see why rank him above his FL- and CF-mate Benny Kauff (teammates as FL rookies). Many in this forum would name Heine Groh most valuable on the Cincinnati team (a majority?) and Hornsby overall (almost everyone?).

<i>But I see him as analogous if not strictly comparable to Snider. Overshadowed by a strong cast of CF at the time, but a guy who had a very significant impact on several pennant races.

I would put Hamilton and Hines with Snider, in Puckett's place.

As to the 19C guys, i.e. where do Hines and Pike and Gore and O'Rourke go relative to one another, after Hamilton at an obvious #1, I dunno, is Hines obvious at #2?

Probably I would put Hines and Hamilton above Snider, who would be down in Kirby Puckett's place.
To the point, . . . certainly young Edd contributed to both FL pennant races (one pennant). He is one MVP candidate for the 1919 championship season. Cincinnati was close only in 1923 and 1926 when Roush was very good at bat (great?? maybe not; no pennants). New York was close in 1927, with the suddenly Giant Roush suddenly mediocre, miserable by his standard. To compete with Snider he may need generous interpretations of the Federal League, his centerfielding, and his down time. Or of his timing; the times changed against him.

sorry about the format.
The paragraph with bold Benny Kauff is mine and the one with "the 19c guys" is Marc's, which I didn't answer.

In Dom DiMaggio's thread it mentions that he deserves minor league credit for his PCL MVP 1939. When considered with his war credit it would put him above the following elected HoM CF (many of whom also needed credit or MLEs to get elected) in my spreadsheet.

Earl Averill
Jim Wynn
Edd Roush
Andre Dawson
Lip Pike
Pete Browning
Willard Brown

In fairness Dominic's case does rest on being one of the best fielding CF of all-time, nearly 13 fielding wins above average. However, that does match his anecdotal reputation.

I guess I'm still astounded that at this position I disagree so much with the other electors. No other position has more than two non-PHoM guys and I have 8 in CF.

I actually like Dom as a candidate for the next election. Three things work against him in being a consesus viable candidate:

1) Defense. By all accounts superlative but there is always more uncertainty and disparity on how voters deal with defense than there is with offense.

2) Missed time during war. How much credit should he get.

3) PCL time. How much credit to give, and there are those that do not consider it.

I have Dom in the top 40 unelected eligibles but he's years away from seeing my PHoM if ever. What does that say about the other 7 guys? I did notice that none of the 7 guys was elected due primarily to the strength of their glove. The last 2 guys were elected in spite of their glove.

Negro Leaguers are Cool Papa Bell, Willard Brown, Oscar Charleston, Pete Hill, Alejandro Oms, Turkey Stearnes, Cristobal Torriente

OPS+ ranks of the other contenders
now all that's needed is to adjust for defense, in-season durability, career length, quality of league, quality of era, peak, prime, work in the Negro Leaguers....
:)


Mickey Mantle...................172 OPS+ in 9909 PA.. (1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 5 7 8)
Ty Cobb.............................167 OPS+ in 13072 PA (1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 8 9 10)
Pete Browning....................162 OPS+ in 5315 PA.. (1 1 2 2 2 3 5 6 6)
Tris Speaker......................158 OPS+ in 11988 PA (1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 9)
Willie Mays.......................156 OPS+ in 12493 PA (1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 6)
Joe DiMaggio....................155 OPS+ in 7661 PA.. (1 2 2 2 3 3 5 7 9 10) (tons of war credit due)
Lip Pike............................155 OPS+ in 2032 PA.. (1 2 2 3 8) (pre-1871 credit to consider)
Billy Hamilton....................141 OPS+ in 7584 PA.. (1 1 2 6 6 7 8 10)
Duke Snider......................140 OPS+ in 8237 PA.. (1 3 3 3 6 7 8)
Larry Doby........................136 OPS+ in 6302 PA.. (1 2 2 5 6 7 8 8) (Negro League credit due)
George Gore.....................135 OPS+ in 6104 PA.. (1 3 6 7 7 8 9 10)
Jim O’Rourke....................133 OPS+ in 9051 PA.. (4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10)
Earl Averill........................133 OPS+ in 7215 PA.. (3 5 6 6 6) (minor league credit to consider)
Paul Hines........................131 OPS+ in 7470 PA.. (2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10)
Jimmy Wynn.....................128 OPS+ in 810 PA.. (3 4 5 8 8 10)

Edd Roush........................126 OPS+ in 8156 PA.. (1 2 3 3 5 6 9)
Monte Irvin........................126 OPS+ in 2893 PA.. (6 7) (lots of Negro League credit due)
Andre Dawson...................119 OPS+ in 10769 PA (2 6 6 )
Richie Ashburn..................111 OPS+ in 9736 PA.. (5 10)
Max Carey........................107 OPS+ in 10770 PA (---)

might be a good place to note my estimates on HOMers per year, 1947-73 (when the AL finally catches up again), re Mantle-Mays and other angles (will work for all those modern SPs as well)

the way to read this is (number of full-timers/number with part-timers included/number even with token appearances included
so NL in 1947 has 8 full-timers, 13 incl part-time, and 14 incl token appearances

the "NL dominance," by this measure, takes a little longer than some might think
Al leads until 1951, NL basically catches up, but NL doesn't establish lead until 1960 and doesn't start utterly dominating until 1964-71, when it's an amazing imbalance

1947 NL (8/13/14) vs AL (10/13/16)
1948 NL (9/12/13) vs AL (12/15/15)
1949 NL (11/12/12) vs AL (13/16/18)
1950 NL (11/11/11) vs AL (12/16/17)
1951 NL (12/12/12) vs AL (13/16/17)
1952 NL (12/14/14) vs AL (11/12/16)
1953 NL (13/14/14) vs AL (11/14/15)
1954 NL (15/15/15) vs AL (11/14/15)
1955 NL (15/17/17) vs AL (13/16/18)
1956 NL (17/19/19) vs AL (12/16/16)
1957 NL (16/17/17) vs AL (10/14/16)
1958 NL (14/15/15) vs AL (11/15/16)
1959 NL (14/17/18) vs AL (11/14/14)
1960 NL (14/19/20) vs AL (13/13/13)
1961 NL (17/20/20) vs AL (12/13/14)
1962 NL (17/22/23) vs AL (11/12/12)
1963 NL (21/22/23) vs AL (11/14/14)
1964 NL (22/26/27) vs AL (9/9/10)
1965 NL (24/26/28) vs AL (8/10/11)
1966 NL (23/25/27) vs AL (9/10/10)
1967 NL (25/26/26) vs AL (9/12/15)
1968 NL (22/25/26) vs AL (10/12/14)
1969 NL (23/25/29) vs AL (11/12/13)
1970 NL (23/27/27) vs AL (10/12/12)
1971 NL (22/27/27) vs AL (12/13/14)
1972 NL (20/24/24) vs AL (17/17/17)
1973 NL (20/22/22) vs AL (16/20/20)

......................

sample years

1952 NL (12/14/14)
Brooklyn - C Roy Campanella, 2B Jackie Robinson, SS Pee Wee Reese, OF Duke Snider
New York - RP Hoyt Wilhelm, OF Willie Mays*, OF Monte Irvin*
St. Louis - OF(1B) Stan Musial, OF Enos Slaughter
Philadelphia - SP Robin Roberts, OF Richie Ashburn
Chicago
Cincinnati
Boston - SP Warren Spahn, 3B Eddie Mathews
Pittsburgh - OF Ralph Kiner

1952 AL (11/12/16)
New York - C Yogi Berra, 1B Johnny Mize*, OF Mickey Mantle (Charlie Keller 1 G)
Cleveland - SP Bob Lemon, SP Bob Feller, SP Early Wynn, OF Larry Doby (Quincy Trouppe 6 G)
Chicago - SP Billy Pierce, 2B Nellie Fox, OF Minnie Minoso
Philadelphia
Washington
Boston (Ted Williams 2 G, Lou Boudreau 2 G)
St. Louis - RP Satchel Paige
Detroit - SP Hal Newhouser
................

1959 NL (14/17/18) &
Los Angeles - SP Don Drysdale, SP Sandy Koufax*, OF Duke Snider
Milwaukee - SP Warren Spahn, 3B Eddie Mathews, OF Hank Aaron (Enos Slaughter** 5 G/(2T)
San Francisco - 1B Willie McCovey*, OF Willie Mays
Pittsburgh - OF Roberto Clemente
Chicago - SS Ernie Banks, OF Billy Williams*
Cincinnati - 1B(OF) Frank Robinson
St. Louis - SP Bob Gibson*, 1B Stan Musial, 3B Ken Boyer
Philadelphia - SP Robin Roberts, OF Richie Ashburn

1959 AL (11/14/14) &
Chicago - SP Billy Pierce, SP Early Wynn, 2B Nellie Fox, OF Larry Doby*(2T)
Cleveland - OF Minnie Minoso
New York - SP Whitey Ford, C Yogi Berra, OF Mickey Mantle, OF Enos Slaughter**(2T)
Detroit - SP Jim Bunning, OF Al Kaline, OF Larry Doby*(2T)
Boston - OF Ted Williams*
Baltimore - SP Hoyt Wilhelm, 3B Brooks Robinson
Kansas City
Washington - 3B Harmon Killebrew
.................................

1966 NL (23/25/27)
Los Angeles - SP Sandy Koufax, SP Don Drysdale, SP Don Sutton
San Francisco - SP Juan Marichal, SP Gaylord Perry, 1B Willie McCovey, OF Willie Mays
Pittsburgh - OF Roberto Clemente, OF Willie Stargell
Philadelphia - SP Jim Bunning, 3B-OF Richie Allen (Ferguson Jenkins 1 G/2T)
Milwaukee - RP Phil Niekro*, C(1B) Joe Torre, 3B Eddie Mathews, OF Hank Aaron
St. Louis - SP Bob Gibson (Steve Carlton 9 G)
Cincinnati - 2B Pete Rose
Houston - SP Robin Roberts*(2T), 2B Joe Morgan, OF Jimmy Wynn
New York - 3B Ken Boyer (Nolan Ryan 2 G)
Chicago - RP Ferguson Jenkins(2T), SP Robin Roberts*(2T), 3B Ron Santo, SS Ernie Banks, OF Billy Williams

1966 AL (9/10/10)
Baltimore - SP Jim Palmer, 3B Brooks Robinson, OF Frank Robinson
Minnesota - 3B-1B Harmon Killebrew
Detroit - C Bill Freehan, OF Al Kaline
Chicago - RP Hoyt Wilhelm
Cleveland
California
Kansas City
Washington
Boston - OF Carl Yastrzemski
New York - SP-RP Whitey Ford*, OF Mickey Mantle
..........................................

1973 AL (16/20/20)
EAST
Baltimore - SP Jim Palmer, 2B Bobby Grich, 3B Brooks Robinson
Boston - C Carlton Fisk, 1B Carl Yastrzemski, OF Dwight Evans
Detroit - C Bill Freehan, OF-1B Al Kaline
New York - 3B Graig Nettles
Milwaukee
Cleveland - SP Gaylord Perry

WEST
Oakland - RP Rollie Fingers, OF Reggie Jackson
Kansas City - 3B George Brett*
Minnesota - SP Bert Blyleven, 1B Harmon Killebrew*, 2B Rod Carew
California - SP Nolan Ryan, DH Frank Robinson
Chicago - RP Rich Gossage*, 1B Dick Allen*
Texas
......................................

1974 NL (18/18/20)
EAST
St. Louis - SP Bob Gibson, C Ted Simmons, 1B Joe Torre (Keith Hernandez 9 G)
Pittsburgh - OF Willie Stargell
Philadelphia - SP Steve Carlton, 3B Mike Schmidt
Montreal (Gary Carter 8 G)
New York - SP Tom Seaver
Chicago - 1B-OF Billy Williams

WEST
Los Angeles - SP Don Sutton, OF Jimmy Wynn
Cincinnati - C Johnny Bench, 2B Joe Morgan, OF Pete Rose
Atlanta - SP Phil Niekro, 1B Hank Aaron, 3B Darrell Evans
Houston
San Francisco
San Diego - 1B Willie McCovey, OF Dave Winfield

1966 black/Hispanic HOMers

NL - Marichal, McCovey, Mays, Clemente, Stargell, DAllen, Aaron, Gibson, Morgan, JWynn, Jenkins, Banks, BWilliams

AL - FRobinson (who was in NL 1956-65)

I always look at a list like Howie's #97 with an eye to the "Estalella Line" - the racial boundary between being allowed into Organized Baseball (as Dolf Luque was) and being barred (before 1946). There's no doubt that both Marichal and Clemente were on the darker side of that particular line.

Yeah, ymmv, but they're worth listing (and no AL parallels there, either)

John, on what basis are you making that claim?

From many books I have read about Irvin, but I guess they were all wrong.

This is extremely annoying that we didn't catch this before the left fielder election, but what are you going to do. It's not our fault. :-)