I'll get the alignment straightened out eventually. Henderson and Yastrzemski have too long of names. Thanks for participating.

Thanks DL!

There looks to be nice consensus on the top six, then a pretty cohort of {Manny, Raines, Simmons, Clark} followed by a cohort of {Irvin, Burkett, Williams, Stargell, Goslin, Minoso}. I assume everyone in those groups would get immediate election to the HoM if they became eligible today. Magee and Keller would probably end up in the Berkman-esque range where they would take a few years to get consensus to get in, but wouldn't have to stick around with the backlog.

From Wheat on down you have to wonder if they could get elected in today's HoM - I'd have to assume most, if not all of them would be receiving votes, but would they end up above the current backlog? Based on where people were putting Bob Johnson, I'm not sure anyone here would get in right now.

2. Jaack Posted: February 03, 2023 at 11:39 AM (#6115579)
Thanks DL!

There looks to be nice consensus on the top six, then a pretty cohort of {Manny, Raines, Simmons, Clark} followed by a cohort of {Irvin, Burkett, Williams, Stargell, Goslin, Minoso}. I assume everyone in those groups would get immediate election to the HoM if they became eligible today. Magee and Keller would probably end up in the Berkman-esque range where they would take a few years to get consensus to get in, but wouldn't have to stick around with the backlog.

From Wheat on down you have to wonder if they could get elected in today's HoM - I'd have to assume most, if not all of them would be receiving votes, but would they end up above the current backlog? Based on where people were putting Bob Johnson, I'm not sure anyone here would get in right now.

Agree with your observations.

Wheat had 8 of his 16 votes in the top 20, at 50%, does he make it in?

For me, the only clear HOMer from the Wheat on down group is Jimmy Sheckard, with my preference of DRA over TZ from that time era.
Sheckard also has the most assists for a left fielder all-time and neither metric covers arm value well/at all to my knowledge.
Disappointed he's not ahead of Kelley and Stovey, Kiner is believable for the peak fans and if you think his defense was ok.

From Wheat on down you have to wonder if they could get elected in today's HoM - I'd have to assume most, if not all of them would be receiving votes, but would they end up above the current backlog? Based on where people were putting Bob Johnson, I'm not sure anyone here would get in right now.

I'd put everyone but Kiner, Kelley, Medwick, and Jones in my PHOM. I don't think any of them would make it today. I think Stovey was a slam dunk in his time, and Wheat was and easy in when he was on the ballot. Sheckard is the most interesting to me as far as would he make it or not today.

If they were all on the ballot today, the only guy I could see being in my top 10 would be Sheckard. I'm glad he got in when he did - I wouldn't have gotten there in my evaluation if not for the HoM rating him highly. I think his support would look a lot like Tommy Leach's does right now - a few highly placed votes, and on the radar for a lot of people, but probably not knocking on the door.

Wheat I think would be interesting. He's got the type of career that doesn't resonate with HoM voters today. He's a low-and-slow guy, he's pre-integration, he doesn't have any case for minor league credit or anything else. At the same time, he's at the 60 WAR threshold by both WARs - with a quick look, I think the only eligible position player with 60 WAR in both systems that we haven't elected is Buddy Bell, the highest guy on the backlog.

t looks like the tallies are slightly off. The table reports 17 24th-place votes and 15 26th-place votes (I did not check that the point totals are correct/incorrect). I think Stovey received 1 24th-place votes (not 2) and Jones received 7 26th-place votes (not 6).

Overall, this is a pretty high-consensus election, especially at the top and the bottom, but even in the middle the level of agreement is pretty strong. The case of Lance Berkman provides a good example: 8 of 16 putting him at 20 or 21, but with most of the remaining votes being on the high side, pulling him up to 19, that's pretty strong agreement!

The question about how the context affected the election of players made me think that putting together some information about the context of the players' elections might be of interest. The players’ election history tends to track with the rankings, but there have been some significant reevaluations over the years, too.

Summary of Leftfielder Election History

Unanimous First Ballot Electees (4) : T. Williams, Musial, Henderson, Bonds
First-Ballot Electees (13) : Delahanty, Burkett, Clarke, Wheat, Simmons, T. Williams, Musial, Stargell, Yastrzemski, Raines, Henderson, Bonds, Ramirez
Initial Top 10 placement (21) : Above + Stovey, Kelley, Sheckard, Magee, Goslin, Irvin, Medwick, B. Williams.
Started Outside Top 10 (5) : Jones (16th in 1898), Keller (46th in in 1957), Kiner (21st in 1961), Minoso (20th in 1970), Berkman (13th In 2019)

More than 10 years to election: Sheckard (12: 1919-1930), Medwick (14: 1954-1967), Stovey (18: 1899-1916), Minoso (18: 1970-1987), Kiner (27: 1961-1987), Keller (40: 1957-1996), Jones (106: 1898-2003)

Leftfielder Election Chronology: Players listed in order of year of election, but with ranking number

6. Ed Delahanty -- 1909. First ballot electee. #1 on this ballot, only electee. First ballot electee, Received 40 of 42 first place votes. First left fielder elected to the Hall of Merit.
12. Jesse Burkett -- 1911. First ballot electee, #2 on this ballot, behind Kid Nichols. Received 21 elect-me votes and appeared on all 42 ballots. Harry Stovey placed 6th, Charley Jones 28th.
23. Harry Stovey - 1916. #1 on this ballot, only electee. In 1916, he was ahead of Joe Kelley (667 to 665!), and future HoMers Flick, Keeler, Bennett, J. Collins, McGinnity, Caruthers, Grant, Thompson, Pike, Waddell, Beckley, Pearce, Jennings, Browning, Griffith, Childs, Jones, McGraw. First eligible in 1899, he placed 5th on that ballot behind Jim O’Rourke, King Kelly, George Wright, and Tim Keefe. He fell as low as #11 in 1902, but from there gradually rose to election.
10. Fred Clarke - 1917. First ballot electee. #2 on this ballot behind Cy Young. Joe Kelley placed 4th, Charley Jones 31st.
21. Joe Kelley -- 1919. #2 on this ballot behind Willie Keeler. First eligible in 1914, where he debuted at #3, immediately behind Harry Stovey. At the time of his election, he was ahead of the players in Stovey's list, except that Elmer Flick passed Kelley, and Jimmy Sheckard joined the ballot, placing 6th in his first year.
17. Sherry Magee - 1926. #2 on this ballot behind Frank Grant. First eligible in 1925, he placed 6th on that ballot, just ahead of Jimmy Sheckard, and behind electees Grant Johnson and Mordecai Brown, plus McGinnity, Wallace, and Grant. Magee and Grant would both leapfrog McGinnity and Wallace to win election in 1926.
24. Jimmy Sheckard -- 1930. #1 on this ballot, ahead of Bob Caruthers (also elected) and future HoMers Pearce, Beckley, Pike, Griffith, R. Foster, Jennings, Bresnahan, Childs, Waddell, Browning, Jones, and McGraw. First eligible in 1919, the year of Joe Kelley’s election, placed 6th on that ballot, trailing Keeler, Kelley, Jimmy Collins, Bennett, and McGinnity. He placed immediately ahead of election partner Caruthers, Grant, Thompson, Waddell, and Pike, who rounded out the top 10.
20. Zack Wheat - 1933. First ballot electee, #2 behind Walter Johnson. Ahead of future HoMers Groh, Pike, Beckley, Griffith, Jennings, Waddell, Childs, Bresnahan, Browning, Mendez, Jones, McGraw, and Moore.
15. Goose Goslin - 1945. #1 on this ballot, with 30 elect-me votes on 49 ballots, ahead of Willie Foster (also elected), and future HoMers Beckwith, Rixey, Griffith, Jennings, Ferrell, Sewell, Sisler, Beckley, Roush, Waddell, Childs, Browning, Bresnahan, Redding, Joes, Mendez, Lundy, Moore, and McGraw. First eligible in 1944, he debuted at #3, receiving 4 elect-me votes and appearing on 50 of 52 ballots but finishing well behind Lou Gehrig and Frankie Frisch.
9. Al Simmons - 1946. First ballot electee, #2 behind Turkey Stearnes. Received 17 #1 votes and 43 elect-me votes, appearing on all 53 ballots.
11. Monte Irvin - 1963. #2 on this ballot, behind Roy Campanella. Received 13 elect-me votes (all #2) and appeared on 44 of 49 ballots. First eligible in 1962, he placed 3rd, behind Bob Feller and Jackie Robinson, receiving 1 elect-me vote. He placed ahead of Joe Medwick (6th), Ralph Kiner (24th), Charley Jones (27th), and Charlie Keller (44th).
2. Ted Williams -- 1966. #1 on this ballot. First ballot electee Received 48 of 48 first-place votes. Red Ruffing also elected.
25. Joe Medwick -- 1967. #1 on this ballot. He appeared on 34 of 45 ballots and garnered 8 elect-me votes. He placed ahead of Bob Lemon, elected with 30 ballot appearance and 6 elect-me votes, and future HoMers Rixey, Mackey, Griffith, Sisler, Bell, Beckley, Redding, Moore, W. Brown, Childs, Browning, Mendez, Doerr, Sewell, Kiner (19th), Jones, Gordon, Oms, Waddell, Trouppe, Bresnahan, Roush, Keller (36th), McGraw, Lundy. He was first eligible in 1954, placing 6th behind Arkie Vaughan, Willie Wells, Mule Suttles, John Beckwith, and Billy Herman.
3. Stan Musial -- 1969. #1 on this ballot. First ballot electee. Received 48 of 48 first-place votes. Yogi Berra also elected.
13. Billy Williams -- 1983. #2 on this ballot, finishing behind Dick Allen in a closely contested election. Received the most first place votes and elect-me votes (17 and 23 to Allen’s 15 and 20), but Allen placed on more ballots (50 to 47), and edged Williams 909 to 868. First eligible in 1982, he placed 3rd behind Henry Aaron and Frank Robinson. He received no elect-me votes that year.
22. Ralph Kiner -- 1987. #1 on this ballot. He appeared on 34 of 53 ballots and garnered 8 elect-me votes. He placed ahead of Billy Pierce and Minnie Minoso (!), who appeared on 32 ballots and garnered 6 elect-me votes. The next 11 players on this ballot all earned eventual election: Childs, Boyer, Fox, J. Wynn, Beckley, Moore, Trouppe, Roush, Charlie Keller (!), Redding, and Browning. First eligible in 1961, where he placed 21st. In that election. He appeared on 15 of 49 ballots, receiving 1 first-place vote in an elect-one year that saw Earl Averill elected. All the players ahead of Kiner on this ballot have been elected except George Van Haltren (#9) and Hugh Duffy (#13). Kiner placed ahead of future Homers Joe Gordon(!) and 8 others. Charlie Keller placed 44th in 1961.
16. Minnie Minoso - 1987. #3 on this ballot. He appeared on 32 ballots and gained 6 elect-me votes, as he finished behind fellow electees Ralph Kiner(!) and Billy Pierce. First eligible in 1970, he placed 20th that year, behind electees Duke Snider and Early Wynn and future HoMers Griffith, Mackey, Bell, Doerr, Sisler, Redding, Gordon, Mendez, W. Brown, Beckley, Kiner (14th), Moore, Browning, Sewell, and Childs.
14. Willie Stargell - 1988. First ballot electee. Election results thread for 1988 is missing, so no specifics on Stargell’s election are available.
5. Carl Yastrzemski -- 1989. #2 on this ballot behind Johnny Bench. First ballot electee. Received 10 first-place votes and 52 elect-me votes. Gaylord Perry also elected. Charley Jones placed 11th this year, Charlie Keller 15th. All players finishing 15 or higher on this ballot were eventually elected. (Bucky Walters, Hugh Duffy, Gavvy Cravath, and Bob Johnson placed 16-20.)
18. Charlie Keller - 1996. #2 on this ballot, trailing Keith Hernandez and leading fellow electee Jimmy Wynn. Keller received 12 elect-me votes, appearing on 27 of 54 ballots. Keller was first eligible in 1957, he finished 46th, receiving only three votes.
26. Charley Jones -- 2003. #3 on this ballot, trailing Eddie Murray and Ryne Sandberg. Appeared on only 22 of 53 ballots, with 4 elect-me votes. Placed ahead of future HoMers Browning, Bresnahan, Redding, Oms, Nettles, McGraw, Bobby Bonds (35th place), Reuschel (46th place), Lundy (101st). First eligible in 1898. He placed 16th in that election. All the players ahead of him have been elected except Ned Williamson (#10) and Tip O’Neill (#14).
8. Tim Raines - 2008. #1 on this ballot. Received 46 of 50 first-place votes, 48 elect-me votes. Entered Hall with Dick Lundy and Bret Saberhagen.
4.Rickey Henderson. – 2009. #1 on this ballot First ballot electee Received 40 of 40 first place votes. Entered Hall with John McGraw and Reggie Smith. (Phil Rizzuto was 4th in this election.)
1.Barry Bonds - 2013. #1 on this ballot. First ballot electee Received 34 of 34 first place votes. Entered Hall with Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, and Craig Biggio.
7. Manny Ramirez. – 2017. #2 on this ballot behind Ivan Rodriguez. First ballot electee. Received 23 elect-me votes, (3 first-place), appeared on 24 of 26 ballot. Jim Edmonds also elected this year.
19. Lance Berkman - 2023. #2 on this ballot, behind Carlos Beltran and ahead of fellow electee Bobby Bonds. Berkman received 7 elect-me votes and appeared on 19 of 26 ballots. Berkman was first eligible in 2019, placing 13th on that ballot behind electees Roy Halladay, Mariano Rivera, and Dick Redding plus future HoMers Tiant, Helton, Lofton, Jones, Kent, Santana, and Sosa, as well as the still unelected Ben Taylor and Wally Schang. The most recent left-fielder added to the Hall of Merit.

Observations
• Charlie Keller and Minnie Minoso are viewed more favorably now than they were when they were elected.
• Joe Medwick is viewed less favorably now than when he was elected.
• In a 1933 context, Zack Wheat was an obvious pick: he might well still place second if the 1933 election were re-played now.He is perhaps a little underrated at #20: his stats look better in the ccontext of the deadball era.
• Half of the HoM leftfielders were elected on the first ballot: is that a typical ratio for positions and for the Hall of Merit as a whole?
• Although some players are viewed differently by the electorate now than when the player was elected, it appears that the Hall of Merit's voting history on a player offers a reasonably reliable guide to the player's stature within the Hall of Merit.

Election results thread for 1988 is missing, so no specifics on Stargell’s election are available.

I have the top 10 for every election in my spreadsheet

1988 results

Stargell, Willie
Childs, Cupid
Boyer, Ken
Wynn, Jimmy
Fox, Nellie
Moore, Dobie
Jones, Charley
Beckley, Jake
Roush, Edd
Browning, Pete

I counted Stargell #1 on 21 ballots

https://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/hall_of_merit/discussion/1988_ballot

In a 1933 context, Zack Wheat was an obvious pick: he might well still place second if the 1933 election were re-played now.He is perhaps a little underrated at #20

Agree with this. I have him basically even with Stargell.

Charlie Keller and Minnie Minoso are viewed more favorably now than they were when they were elected.

Interesting pair here - once you account for season lengths, the've got the shortest and third shortest careers of the HoM LF (at least in terms of PAs). They obviously both deserve additional credit beyond their MLB careers, but both, particularly Keller, still have shorter careers. It'll be interesting to track going forward with the other positions, but I have a hunch that today's HoM is a lot friendlier towards peak/prime cases than it was in the past. Although that doesn't really explain the fall off for Ducky Medwick, who is definitely on the peak/prime side of things.

I am not sure that the electorate in principle is friendlier to peak/prime than it was earlier, but I think the phasing out of Win Shares as a metric of choice has changed what it means to emphasize peak/prime. Because its replacement level is so low, Win Shares really favors durability, even with respect to single season peaks.

I suspect Medwick's decline is due to two factors. One is the move away from Win Shares. Win shares casts Medwick in an extremely good light, while casting his contemporary Bob Johnson in a very poor light. Johnson's staying power in the electorate is, implicitly, an argument that the pick of Medwick is questionable. The other is a closer look at the number of players elected from different time periods. Medwick comes from a very well-represented era, an era in which high-scoring conditions led the electorate over the years to favor 1930s stars over deadball stars and the interrupted careers of players from the 1940s and 1950s. Medwick is a player who looks like we may have gone to the well a couple too many times for the 1930s, and I think that also has pulled him down a bit.

Results should be correct and columns aligned now.

Name (LF) Points Old Pts Place Previous Place
Barry Bonds 412 N/A 1 N/A
Ted Williams 404 462 2 1
Stan Musial 382 440 3 2
Rickey Henderson 370 N/A 4 N/A
Carl Yastrzemski 348 392 5 4
Ed Delahanty 327 407 6 3
Manny Ramirez 296 N/A 7 N/A
Tim Raines 287 365 8 5
Al Simmons 286 333 9 7
Fred Clarke 273 313 10 8
Monte Irvin 223 255 11 10
Jesse Burkett 221 338 12 6
Billy Williams 220 267 13 9
Willie Stargell 198 220 14 11
Goose Goslin 192 161 15 17
Minnie Minoso 181 132 16 18
Sherry Magee 155 192 17 12
Charlie Keller 154 170 18 14
Lance Berkman 128 N/A 19 N/A
Zack Wheat 112 170 20 14
Joe Kelley 97 168 21 16
Ralph Kiner 84 85 22 22
Harry Stovey 80 90 23 21
Jimmy Sheckard 76 171 24 13
Joe Medwick 64 97 25 20
Charley Jones 46 109 26 19

Delahanty moves below Yaz. Jesse Burkett takes a tumble from 6th to 12th. Stargell moves up. Magee moves down. Keller moves down. Sheckard moves WAY down (13th to 24th).

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