|
|
Hall of Merit— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
Roy Campanella
Eligible in 1963.
|
Support BBTF
Thanks to . for his generous support.
Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
Reranking First Basemen: Discussion Thread (34 - 9:52am, May 31)Last: DL from MN2024 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion (118 - 4:10pm, May 30)Last:  Kiko SakataReranking Shortstops Ballot (10 - 5:16pm, May 25)Last: Chris CobbCal Ripken, Jr. (15 - 12:42am, May 18)Last: The Honorable ArdoNew Eligibles Year by Year (996 - 12:23pm, May 12)Last:  cookiedabookieReranking Shortstops: Discussion Thread (67 - 6:46pm, May 07)Last: cookiedabookieReranking Centerfielders: Results (20 - 10:31am, Apr 28)Last: cookiedabookieReranking Center Fielders Ballot (20 - 9:30am, Apr 06)Last: DL from MNRanking Center Fielders in the Hall of Merit - Discussion Thread (77 - 5:45pm, Apr 05)Last: Esteban RiveraReranking Right Fielders: Results (34 - 2:55am, Mar 30)Last: bjhanke2023 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion (376 - 10:42am, Mar 07)Last:  Dr. ChaleekoReranking Right Fielders: Ballot (21 - 5:20pm, Mar 01)Last: DL from MNRanking Right Fielders in the Hall of Merit - Discussion thread (71 - 9:47pm, Feb 28)Last: GuapoDobie Moore (239 - 10:40am, Feb 11)Last:  Mike WebberRanking Left Fielders in the Hall of Merit - Discussion thread (96 - 12:21pm, Feb 08)Last: DL from MN
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 04, 2005 at 03:32 PM (#1661530)The things that set Campanella and Lombardi apart are the two D's: Durability and Defense
Lombardi, during his 10-year prime, caught over 100 games 7 times in 10 years from 1932 through 1941, 1053 games total. He caught 120 or more games twice.
Campanella, during his 9 1/2 year major-league career, caught over 100 games 8 times, 1183 games total. He caught 120 or more games 7 times.
Lombardi is -120 FRAA for his career, graded as a D+ catcher by win shares, earning 4.20 fws/1000 innings.
Campanella is 70 FRAA for his career, graded as an A catcher by win shares, earning 6.63 fws/1000 innings.
According to Retrosheet, here are the 13 greatest individual seasons a catcher has ever had throwing out baserunners:
In his career Campanella threw out 57.4 percent of opposing basestealers, easily the best percentage ever among catchers with at least 500 games. The next best is 47 percent by Clay Dalrymple; Pudge Rodriguez ranks fifth with 46 percent.
Oh, and didn't Campy have more power and walk more than Schnozz? Doesn't this mean that their difference in hits is washed out to even? And Lombardi was slow as hell and grounded into DP's at a Rice-like rate.
I have Lombardi outside my top 50 but in my consideration set, Campy has an elect me spot waiting for him on my ballot, especially with NeL credit.
Eric,
Does it matter than Campy's numbers came in an era with few stolen bases so his impact was probably less than that of some other guys? In talent, it is hard to argue that he wasn't the best at catching basestealers though with those numbers.
Does it matter than Campy's numbers came in an era with few stolen bases so his impact was probably less than that of some other guys? In talent, it is hard to argue that he wasn't the best at catching basestealers though with those numbers.
Obviously it matters, though I suspect there will be some disagreement on the degree to which it matters.
Be that as it may, if we're talking about a skill, well, Campy had the skill and I admire him for it.
If we're talking about value, well, it didn't have a tremendous amount of value. Kinda like Kirby Puckett bringing potential home runs back into the park. Looks great, my, how skillful! Three times a year.
Given that he had the same "fluke" just about every year of his career, I think it's safe to say that this is not a sample size issue of any kind. You can look at the career stats too: Campy is a full 10 percent better, 57 to 47 percent, than the second-best catcher.
Sure it wasn't a running era, but its still 20-30 extra-outs/erased-baserunners for the Dodgers each year. That's value in any era. So, as long as runner were dumb enough to run on Campy, he's racking up the fielding value.
I believe this is born out in BPro's defensive numbers for catchers (I am recalling a study in one of their recent books, I believe the 2004 version), where a guy may lead the league for a year then drop down significantly as managers realize he is a stud.
This is different from the defensive value of most other positions, where the better you are, the more runs you usually save your team.
Just something to think about when looking at catcher defense, maybe there is more to it than the raw runs saved totals.
Also, as Smith puts it, "the percentage of caught stealing has changed dramatically in the last 40 years." In 1960 it was 38.3%; in 2000 it was 26.4%. If you look at I-Rod and Campy relative to league averages, the difference between them shrinks considerably.
Smith doesn't give complete data on all their seasons (at least that I can find), nor league data for 1958-2000 (though I guess you can get that from the Retrosheet event files). BUT--I looked up the league totals for the NL, 1951-58 (CS aren't available except sporadically before 1951 for the NL), which comes out to 40.5. I think that's very close to the league figure for Campanella's career--1948-50 couldn't be far off, and if those seasons are different, they're very likely to have a *higher* CS%, as that's the historical pattern.
In 1979 pickoffs where the runner tries to advance began to be counted as caught stealing; but Smith gives the ML CS% for catchers for 1990, 1995, and 2000: 26.2, 25.5, and 26.4. These average out to 26.0.
So Campanella's career according to Smith looks like this:
SB, 1948-58: 179
CS, 1948-58: 241
CS% 57.4
NL SB, 1951-58: 3063
NL CS, 1951-58: 2082
CS% 40.5
And Rodriguez like this:
SB, 1991-2000: 398
CS, 1991-2000: 340
CS% 46.1
ML CS%, ave. of 1990, 1995, 2000: 26.0
Campanella career, relative to league: 1.42 (57.4/40.5)
Rodriguez career, relative to league: 1.77 (46.1/26.0)
Obviously, there are other important issues, such as how much a catcher depresses stolen base attempts relative to the rest of the league. And this isn't to say that Campanella wasn't exceptional. But I really do think context and era matter as much here as they do anywhere else.
By the way, there are probably earlier catchers who would do much better than the career leaders from 1958-2000 in raw CS%, since the league averages keep going up the farther back you go. In the NL from 1920-25 base stealers were caught 46.2% of the time (4777 steals, 4100 caught stealing).
I think Campy's poor winter league showing might be holding down his rate stats in the MLEs, but I didn't want to break from my previously established procedures, so I left them in. I'd say, therefore, that there's a lot of upward room here for more value.
Also, I'm not so sure his age-18 season should be part of any MLE credit given to him by the electorate. He was too green by all appearances.
One last point: 1948 only represents a partial season, he spent the rest of it in Brooklyn.
Not that it matters in the least. Adding in 166 or 176 or even just 125 WS (picking a number completely arbitrarily) puts him among the top 3 catchers of all-time, which is exactly where James has him. In fact 166.1 gets you:
Berra 375 34-32-31/154/28.7
Bench 356 37-34-34/155/26.7
Campy 373 33-33-31/134/27.6*
The *27.6 is what James reports for his ML career only. Campy lacks the 5 consecutive because his best ML seasons were broken up by injuries. His earlier peak including 1944-45-47 is broken up by those anamolous years of 1946 and 1948. So #3 may be the right spot for him, but not any lower.
That's exactly what happened -- Rickey decided he wanted to integrate not just the Montreal Royals, but two teams at once. The Dodgers' next-highest farm club after Montreal was in Fort Worth. So he sent Campanella and Newcombe to Nashua after signing them despite knowing they were too good for the league.
I don't think it matters much, cause Campy is getting in the HOM and probably sooner rather than later,
but his 1940 and 1941 seasons playing time seems way too high. 26 games of 84 team games in 1940, to an MLE of 101 games played, 23 of 59 in 1941 to an MLE of 107. Yes he played winter ball, but I think that is double counting. If he wasn't playing half the time in the NeL, I don't see how you could project that he would play 2/3 of the games in on ML schedule.
So maybe he's only the 5th best catcher of all time instead of the 4th. :}
It's worth noting that this bit of info reflects not only on Campy, but also on Biz Mackey. From what I've read the old time Negro Leaguers said that Campy was a reincarnation of Mackey behind the plate. Campy learned the trade from BM in fact.
Maybe the runners hadn't had much practice stealing?
And the pitchers not much practice holding runners?
Why couldn't station-to-station era runners take advantage of some element of surprise? Maybe because they tried to steal especially when a steal was most valuable, hence most expected.
the league averages keep going up the farther back you go. In the NL from 1920-25 base stealers were caught 46.2% of the time
good point.
1871 data is unfortunately incomplete.
whoever had control of his contract placed him somewhere inappropriate to his talent--maybe for obvious reasons.
The story I've heard at regional SABR meetings credits New Hampshire with more progressive views on race --naturally. There may be two books on the Nashua Dodgers in the last ten years, one focusing on the club history
(by Steve Daly, see Member Books)
and another on 1946.
I'm working on MLEs for Campanella to accompany Dr. Chaleeko's. I should have stats up to OPS+ ready by tomorrow; win shares will follow a little later in the week.
Campy and Jackie are with MLers, since most of their value was created in the major leagues. BTW, if and when they are elected, I wont be including them in our running count of NeLers.
Irvin, OTOH, is with the NeLers.
Chris - I don't see the followup to your post #26. Is it still coming?
But 1949-50-52 also are outstanding for any C; so that's six big-time years right there.
Cochrane vs Campy, starting with best OPS+s:
Campan: 159 55 53 35 31 21 02
Mickey: 157 49 37 35 33 28 24 22 17
But Campanella conservatively with NeL credit can match the bottom 3 on Cochrane's career, so I see him slightly ahead of Cochrane - on batting alone.
Throw in a defensive bonus, and I see Campy well ahead - and I'm a big Cochrane fan.
Maybe some voters will grant that Campy was great in his 3 big years - without realizing just how amazing it is to have a MVP-level hitter who also kicks butt as a defensive C.
I always did respect how Jennings dominated the earth, briefly, as an SS MVP-level guy. Can't see how any Jennings backers can't like Campy even better.
Counting his NeL days, the real question is how does Campy do head to head with Jackie. I think there's a case to be made for Campy.
I'd go with Campy fairly easy, Marc.
I don't have win shares yet, but I hope to have those tonight or tomorrow.
Roy Campanella MLEs
OK, there's my uneasiness, and maybe the way out of it as well. The instability of Campanella's career is an issue. He does have the top handful of years, although not necessarily consecutive, but he's short, at least in the major leagues, in "shoulder" years to make up a prime.
Was his birthday 11/19/21? If so, then the ages in Dr. Chaleeko's post #19 are a year older than he really was during those seasons, although correct in post #18. He reached the majors at the age of 26. Again, I don't think he would have been a teenage major leauger, but there's enough there for "shoulder" value in his early 20's.
Who else has 3 or more MVPs? Berra, Foxx, Schmidt, Dimaggio, Mantle, Musial and Bonds. Who doesn't? Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, etc.
I'm not suggesting that Campy is in the same breath with those guys, but let's give him some credit beyond what our post-hoc analysis of his numbers shows.
Yes.
Let's not forget this guy won 3 MVP awards, ahead of Musial, Mathews and Snider, respectively (in those years).
To indulge in some post-hoc analysis of numbers, I see that in terms of raw value, neither WARP nor WS sees Campy as the best player in the league in any of his three MVP seasons. With a catcher bonus, he may well be the right choice for 1951 and 1953, but not 1955. That was a mistake on the writers' part.
I'm not suggesting that Campy is in the same breath with those guys, but let's give him some credit beyond what our post-hoc analysis of his numbers shows.
All that OCF's analysis is suggesting, it seems to me, is that Campanella probably does not rank among the top 5 catchers of all time: he's only solidly in the top 10! This seems to me the drift of much of the analysis we've seen this week.
These are the averages of the catcher with the most games caught for each team from 1939 to 1946, NL. I have AL numbers that I will post when Berra comes up for election. Those numbers are worse than the NL's.
The highest total for each category:
Hits: 163 Danning 1939
Runs: 79 Danning 1939
Home runs: 20 Lombardi 1939
RBI: 91 Danning 1940
BB: 56 Mueller 1943
TB: 249 Danning 1939
Number of players with 10 or more home runs in a season in 8 years: 16
Number of players with 15 or more home runs in a season in 8 years: 3
Number of players with 20 or more home runs in a season in 8 years: 1
Number of players with 70 or more rbi in a season: 8
Number of players with 80 or more rbi in a season: 3
Number of players with 90 or more rbi in a season: 1
Campanella:
Had 10 homers in every year except his first year when he only played 86 games.
Had 15 homers in 8 years, 1949 to 1956.
Had 20 homers in 7 years, 1949 to 1953, 1955 to 1956.
Had 25 homers in 4 years, 1950, 1951, 1953, 1955
Had 30 homers in 4 years, same
Had 40 homers in 1953.
Had 70 rbi in 7 years, 1949 - 1953, 1955 - 1956.
Had 80 rbi in 6 years, 1949 - 1953, 1955.
Had 90 rbi in 4 years, 1951 - 1953, 1955.
Had 100 rbi in 3 years, 1951, 1953, 1955.
Other than Walker Cooper's 35 HR and 122 RBI season (1947), the last NL catcher to get more than 100 rbi was Hartnett's 122 in 1930 and the last NL catcher to hit more than 25 / 30 homers was Hartnett's 37 in 1930.
Campanella (and Berra) was the first catcher who could consistently hit with home run power and drive in runs in great numbers. Campanella's other key was his ability to stay in the line-up. From 1949 to 1956, Campanella has 7 seasons of at least 120 games caught and an eighth at 111. This compares to the previous great hitting catchers:
Lombardi had 2 seasons with 120 games caught and 2 more at 111 or better.
Hartnett had 4 seasons with 120 games caught and 5 more at 110 or better.
Dickey had 6 years with 120 games caught and and 1 more at 110 or better.
Cochrane had 8 years with 120 games caught and 3 more at 110 or better.
It had been a decade since people had seen such a durable catcher, plus he hit with home run power that no catcher had consistently shown.
Berra was even more durable, but we'll deal with him in 1970/71.
Use as you see fit.
It had been a decade since people had seen such a durable catcher, plus he hit with home run power that no catcher had consistently shown.
...which makes him an easy choice for a top spot on the ballot. :)
We are missing a little data, and as it becomes available, these MLEs will be updated.
Currently showing him at 55.9 WAR, combining MLE and MLE seasons.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main