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Hall of Merit— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best
Monday, July 25, 2005
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1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 25, 2005 at 06:34 PM (#1496772)TIEE's Article on Jethroe and its responses
I don't know where Mr. Russell got his numbers, but I'll double-check them this evening against Riley. I'll try to post about them and also post up Brown's numbers either tonight or tomorrow.
So where was he before 1944 and could he possibly have some additional MLEs coming? I don't know the answer to either question.
After 1952 he probably was still a ML player but only for 1953 and '54, I'd guess. I mean he might under different circumstances have been given 1955 as a bench player but not any more.
So that makes maybe 12 years of MLEs unless we can determine something prior to '44.
His HR numbers are certainly interesting, however. One would have to conclude that the white world valued HR more so than the NeLs did, or else he just developed a power stroke real late.
Where data was missing I tried to fill in using surrounding seasons or career norms.
Walk rate is based on his MLB walk rate which was roughly a walk for every 10 ABs.
I don't think this is a HOM-level player, however, I'm glad to at least have made sure of it. The only thing that could change my mind is if my Q&D conversion rate for the IL is too low. That might make him look a little better, but unlikely to make him look good enough to jump into the 1958 three-inductee sweepstakes.
>The only thing that could change my mind
Or if he was active at an MLE worthy rate before 1944 (age 26)??? I suspect somebody will tell us eventually.
It would seem likely (but you guys are more expert than me) that about the same proportion of NEL and ML players went into the services, so the factors remain the same, but the MLEs should be given a "Wartime discount" (and conversely those NEL players in the services in 1942-45 should be given credit for those years.)
Several of Chris Cobb's posted MLE's contain data from 1943-45. When calculating OPS+, I use the actual NL data from those years as a context. I have no idea if there is an implied discount that needs to be applied on top of that.
Yes. We were just pegging down the context level, not the talent level. For example, SLG numbers were down in the NL from 1941-46. (War years 43-45 are about the same context as 41,42,46) So a .400 translated SLG is worth more in this period than before or after.
Its nowhere near as drastic as the shift that occurred between 1930 and 1931, but little stuff like this can make some noticeable changes in OPS+.
But, yes, Chris does the hard part. I don't know how wartime play is handled in the MLE's.
Caveat: these are NOT Chris-Cobb-Certified MLEs, these are Doc's Quick and Dirty MLEs in a Bottle. Like liquid smoke, they are are designed to give you flavor, not authenticity. (As in, "he needs a longer look" or "I'm cool with remanding him deep into the backlog without going too much deeper.")
Only one player other than Jethroe makes the list: Bobby Abreu. Not a bad comp, his career WAR is in range of that MLE.
I'll stretch a bit, 6-11 WAR, 45+ SB, 30+ HR
17 players meet the criteria, mostly really good ones. 2B Lopes, Biggio, Morgan, Alomar. OF Raines, Lofton, Willie Davis, Devon White, Reggie Sanders, Mike Cameron
I have a difficult time giving him MLE credit past 1954.
The MLE fielding is also a net positive (+18) when his actual MLB fielding was below average. He was really fast but had trouble judging fly balls and had a weak arm. It is unlikely those issues would have been better when he was younger. I would take off 30 runs for fielding MLE issues.
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