Will the Jet's candidacy take off or will it crash and burn?

I don't have my usual sources with me, but I found information posted by a Eric Enders and a Mr. Russell on btf at the time of Jethroe's death. I'm reposting the stats along with the link so everyone can check it out for themselves. Note that Jethroe had surgery to remvoe a stomach problem after his horrid 1952 season and was his usual self thereafter.
TIEE's Article on Jethroe and its responses

Year Lg  Team  G  AB  R   H   2B 3B HR  RBI    BA   SA   TB  SB
1944 NgL Cle  68 275  55  97  14  2          .353 .440  121  18
1945 NgL Cle  56 214  61  84  10 10  3   37  .393 .575  123  21 
1946 NgL Cle  62 226  54  70         6       .310            20 
1947 NgL Cle     306  90 108  35 10  7       .353 .601  184  52  
1948 NgL Cle  47 186  61  55  13  4  5   30  .296 .489   91  29
1948 IL  Mon  76 292  52  94  19 11  1   25  .322 .473  138  18 
1949 IL  Mon 153 635 154 207  34 19 17   83  .326 .520  330  89
1950 NL  Bos 141 582 100 159  28  8 18   58  .273 .442  257  35
1951 NL  Bos 148 572 101 160  29 10 18   65  .280 .460  263  35
1952 NL  Bos 151 608  79 141  23  7 13   58  .232 .357  217  28
1953 IL  Tol 145 543 137 168  32 10 28   74  .309 .560  304  27
1954 IL  Tor 154 593 113 181  36  8 21   84  .305 .499  296  23
1955 IL  Tor 145 485  88 127  16  4 16   66  .262 .410  199  24
1956 IL  Tor 149 567 105 163  25  4 19   68  .287 .446  253  22
1957 IL  Tor 130 451  83 125  16  6 15   39  .277 .439  198  24
1958 IL  Tor  68 184  20  43  11  0  2   18  .234 .326   60   5

I don't know where Mr. Russell got his numbers, but I'll double-check them this evening against Riley. I'll try to post about them and also post up Brown's numbers either tonight or tomorrow.

Jethroe is believed to have been born in January 1918 so he made his NeL debut at age 26. At the time of his ML debut he claimed to have been vorn in 1922. Some believe he was born before 1918.

So where was he before 1944 and could he possibly have some additional MLEs coming? I don't know the answer to either question.

After 1952 he probably was still a ML player but only for 1953 and '54, I'd guess. I mean he might under different circumstances have been given 1955 as a bench player but not any more.

So that makes maybe 12 years of MLEs unless we can determine something prior to '44.

His HR numbers are certainly interesting, however. One would have to conclude that the white world valued HR more so than the NeLs did, or else he just developed a power stroke real late.

OK, super quick and dirty version of Jethroe's MLEs. Using the data posted above, I applied the .90/.82 discount that Chris Cobb uses to Jethroe's NgL and IL seasons (figuring that for this purpose that would be close enough, though I'd like to get closer, so if someone thinks there's a better conversion rate for the 1950s IL, please say so). I redistributed the xBH based on his career xBH/H rates.

Where data was missing I tried to fill in using surrounding seasons or career norms.

Walk rate is based on his MLB walk rate which was roughly a walk for every 10 ABs.

YEAR  AB    H   TB  2B  3B  HR  bb  AVG  obp  SLG
-------------------------------------------------
1944 586  186  212  27   4   4  59 .318 .380 .361
1945 554  196  261  23  23   7  55 .354 .412 .472
1946 529  147  278  13  11  13  53 .279 .345 .526
1947 550  175  271  57  16  11  55 .318 .380 .493
1948 563  158  221  34  16   6  56 .281 .346 .393
1949 635  186  271  31  17  15  64 .293 .358 .426
1950 582  159  257  28   8  18  58 .273 .339 .442
1951 572  160  263  29  10  18  57 .280 .345 .460
1952 608  141  217  23   7  13  61 .232 .302 .357
1953 543  151  249  29   9  25  54 .278 .344 .459
1954 593  163  243  32   7  19  59 .275 .340 .409
1955 485  114  163  14   4  14  49 .236 .305 .336
1956 567  146  207  22   4  17  57 .258 .326 .366
1957 451  112  162  14   5  13  45 .249 .318 .360
1958 184   39   49  10   0   2  18 .211 .282 .267
=================================================
TOT 8003 2235 3275 386 139 196 800 .279 .345 .409

I don't think this is a HOM-level player, however, I'm glad to at least have made sure of it. The only thing that could change my mind is if my Q&D conversion rate for the IL is too low. That might make him look a little better, but unlikely to make him look good enough to jump into the 1958 three-inductee sweepstakes.

Doc,

>The only thing that could change my mind

Or if he was active at an MLE worthy rate before 1944 (age 26)??? I suspect somebody will tell us eventually.

Dr Chaleeko, is this a conversion into the ACTUAL 1944-45 ML, or into a hypothetical non-war ML? Probably not a HOM-relevant question here, but will be for e.g. Willard Brown.

It would seem likely (but you guys are more expert than me) that about the same proportion of NEL and ML players went into the services, so the factors remain the same, but the MLEs should be given a "Wartime discount" (and conversely those NEL players in the services in 1942-45 should be given credit for those years.)

is this a conversion into the ACTUAL 1944-45 ML, or into a hypothetical non-war ML?

Several of Chris Cobb's posted MLE's contain data from 1943-45. When calculating OPS+, I use the actual NL data from those years as a context. I have no idea if there is an implied discount that needs to be applied on top of that.

That's what I thought, in which case I think there should be a further discount, unless NEL players were for some reason drafted at wildly different rates from ML players, which would have had the effect of increasing NEL strength relative to ML.

karl, David didn't say there wasn't a WWII discount in the NeL/MLE calculations for '43-'45, he said he didn't know. Let's wait to find out which it is.

David didn't say there wasn't a WWII discount in the NeL/MLE calculations for '43-'45, he said he didn't know.

Yes. We were just pegging down the context level, not the talent level. For example, SLG numbers were down in the NL from 1941-46. (War years 43-45 are about the same context as 41,42,46) So a .400 translated SLG is worth more in this period than before or after.

Its nowhere near as drastic as the shift that occurred between 1930 and 1931, but little stuff like this can make some noticeable changes in OPS+.

But, yes, Chris does the hard part. I don't know how wartime play is handled in the MLE's.

I don't know what Chris does for 1943-1945, but I can tell you that these MLEs are not adjustd at all for the war.

Caveat: these are NOT Chris-Cobb-Certified MLEs, these are Doc's Quick and Dirty MLEs in a Bottle. Like liquid smoke, they are are designed to give you flavor, not authenticity. (As in, "he needs a longer look" or "I'm cool with remanding him deep into the backlog without going too much deeper.")

bump

Sam of course gets A+ for speed/stolen bases which helps his case, but with what looks like around a 100 OPS+, he's essentially Cool Papa Bell without the longevity...

I get a rough estimate of a career 104 OPS+ for Jethroe...

Please click through for my latest MLEs for Sam Jethroe.

The good Doctor starts Jethroe's MLEs at 1942 at age 25. As sunnyday2 mentions in this thread, that is a late age to begin a career, especially considering that speed was a main calling card for Jethroe. Per Jethroe's SABR bio, Jethroe played for the Indianapolis Clowns in 1938 at age 21, although Wikipedia indicates it was only for a short period of time, and as a catcher. The SABR bio indicates he might have played for his high school in 1939 but otherwise there is no mention of him playing baseball that year. The SABR bio indicates Negro league teams reached out to him to play for them in 1940 and 1941, but he refused in order to take care of his seriously ill mother, and so played semipro instead so he could be near his mother. So should Jethroe get credit for any of those years? I think it's tough to seriously argue for 1938 or 1939, but 1940 and 1941 I could see an argument - if he'd been eligible for MLB, I assume he would have played as he'd have made more money and could take care of his mother that way. I'm open to other people's opinion regarding that. Ultimately, even if you credit him for 1940 and 1941, he probably is borderline at best (unless the good Doctor's MLE for Jethroe is improved by the adjustments he's mentioned). Still, he appears to be a serious candidate that voters should have in their consideration set.

I could see giving him something for it. Though not enough to get him over 60 WAR for his career and since he seems like a career value case, I don't think that's enough for me to elect him. That said, I agree that he deserves a closer look and I will give that to him when I get to CFs in my research for this year.

Age 33-35, WAR between 7-10, 60+ SB, 45+ HR

Only one player other than Jethroe makes the list: Bobby Abreu. Not a bad comp, his career WAR is in range of that MLE.

I'll stretch a bit, 6-11 WAR, 45+ SB, 30+ HR

17 players meet the criteria, mostly really good ones. 2B Lopes, Biggio, Morgan, Alomar. OF Raines, Lofton, Willie Davis, Devon White, Reggie Sanders, Mike Cameron

Noticed some weirdness in the MLEs in the link @15.

In 1952, after undergoing intestinal surgery early in the year, Jethroe’s performance fell off significantly, pretty much across the board.

I have a difficult time giving him MLE credit past 1954.

The MLE fielding is also a net positive (+18) when his actual MLB fielding was below average. He was really fast but had trouble judging fly balls and had a weak arm. It is unlikely those issues would have been better when he was younger. I would take off 30 runs for fielding MLE issues.