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1. Russlan is not Russian Posted: April 04, 2011 at 07:12 AM (#3785573)FWIW, one of the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby is "Dialed In."
So, this could be your year.
Definitely. 20% may be on the high side, the range of projections run by SG at RLYW showed the Mets with a 13-19% chance of making the playoffs, but there is a real chance.
Even if it's only a 15% chance, that implies >50% chance the Mets are in it until Aug or Sept, which is fun too.
No reason for Mets fans to be defeatist.
No, TVe, just a bit of specificity
If you had actual knowledge of the future it would, quite obviously, decrease the "enjoyment" of sporting events. There's a reason people avoid spoilers in movies, after all. There's a reason people once covered their ears and screamed if anyone mentioned box scores for early games that had been recorded and were waiting at home. The joy of sport - the absolute, fundamental aspect of sport that makes sport *sport* - is the unscripted nature of live action games. If you were to ever have true knowledge of the future it would completely destroy your ability to enjoy events as they unfold in real time. (Though you might make it up in a Biff Tannen sort of way, the joy of life would be gone in a flash.)
Of course, you don't have actual knowledge of the future. That's just your giant hubris filled head toppling over and crushing the sad, atrophied remnants of your common ####### sense, not knowledge. What you have is a predictive model that you trust. In most cases that predictive model is functionally sound for large, very general problems. You can predict with some non-trivial degree of accuracy that Jeff Francoeur, over the course of 550 at bats, will be not-good. You can predict equally as well that Roy Halladay, barring injury, will drop 200+ innings of HOF resume on the league. You can predict that the Bucs will not play in the 2011 World Series, and that Al Pujols will push 400/600 on rate stats.
But you can't predict events. You can't predict at bats. You can't predict game outcomes with any degree of certainty. All you can do is run the model and say Captain Probability would be shocked if Frenchy takes Doc Halladay deep in this at bat, and then pick your jaw up if he does.
Which is why you come back to the game, of course. You can't predict the game. You can just make informed guesses and see if the "likely" becomes the real. Because you do not now, nor will you ever have "knowledge of the future" you over-enumerated, basement dwelling troll. Sometimes Ozzie Guillen singles off of you gas-throwing closer to take it to extra innings, where Andruw walks with the bases full.
A saliva test, quick! I agree with Sam H.!
And this line made me smile. Obviously written before Thursday...
How's the rotation stack up? :)
Otherwise...What Sam said in #10. You have an idea of what *should* happen, but that isn't what's going to happen. David Wright *should* rebound, but there's no guarantee. The joy of baseball is not necessarily just thinking that player x will rebound, it's will he do it now, or will the opposing RFer rob him on a hard liner. Will the 3bman choose this play to airmail a ball into the bleacher? Can Adam Dunn launch a ball 500'?
That's why it's fun. You might have an idea on the destination, but the path is unknown.
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