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1. J in the Slope Posted: December 12, 2008 at 04:40 PM (#3027471)Jason Marquis' ERA+ since he became a full-time starter in 2004 -
115
102
74
101
99
His WHIP isn't good, his ERA won't be good, but he's a good bet to be better than: #5 83 (you know, someone bad).
If you could do a Schoeneweis-for-Marquis deal (as it's rumored) and also sign either Ollie or Lowe (whom I agree are the most attractive among the realistic FA SP options), would you do that? Seems to me that with Feliciano, Schoeneweis is a bit redundant. Marquis is more palatable than Garland given Marquis' contract, and it would be nice to have Niese as depth while he spends some more time getting ready at AAA.
Then again, I'm the optimist/surrealist in chatter, so...
I like SS in a proper role. There are enough people in the pen that a couple of OOGYs isn't a problem. SS does need to get out LHBs *even* better.
I don't like Marquis and just don't want him.
Sabathia/Sheets/Pelfrey/Maine/Pedro with Uehara and Niese in reserve should be good enough.
Sheets, Penny, and Smoltz/Pedro/Uehara under my Christmas Tree, please.
If you're saying Feliciano stands a good chance of being the "cross-over" guy once again (though I may be reading you wrong), I agree.
I do too.
I had not heard anything about him being a jerk.
I like the idea of the Mets having six viable starters, which means they'd need two more. If the Cubs are willing to give them a #5 plus cash for one of the Mets' two LHP relievers (with the SP and the reliever both in their walk years), it seems more palatable to me than committing to a Jon Garland or even a Randy Wolf (though I don't think Wolf would take much to snag).
I can definitely see where you're coming from, though. I think there's a decent chance Feliciano will once again become the versatile reliever we saw in 06/07, which means that a LOOGY like SS would still be a useful part to that pen.
I did too.
The one thing I don't want is for Marquis to be the only addition. I think Pelfrey and Maine are big enough question marks to justify an outlay on a Perez or Lowe.
I don't understand this stance. If you have an opportunity to make your team better here, you take it.
And by the way, the 84 ERA+ figure is not for the man that started the 5th most games in his rotation. It is for all the guys that took turns in that slot. So if you are confident that Niese or Figueroa can put up an 84, the overall number will almost certainly be lower when you factor in the starts that will almost inevitably go to 2008's versions of Dave Williams, Geremi Gonzalez, Brian Lawrence, Brandon Knight, Jason Vargas, etc.
He declined arbitration from the Sox - as he would have earned over $8 million next year, I don't know if that means he thinks he can make more than that or if he wants the security of a multiyear deal, or what.
She's a babe, too.
Wait, who?
Oh.
Jayson Stark seems to believe the Derek Lowe market is going to come very nicely right to the Mets:
That would work for me -- a reasonable deal for Lowe, and then either trade for Marquis or don't to create some real depth at the bottom of the rotation (Marquis, Niese, Figueroa). That would make for a . . . wait for it . . . reliable rotation in which there are enough great (Santana), very good (Pelfrey, Lowe), good (Maine), and decent (the others) options to take the starts/innings. I'd be happy.
I specifically meant that the entire slot would make an 84. So Figueroa (and whomever) could post a 91. I am confident they can get it closer to 100.
And yet, I'm ok with Sheets, so I must be rather capricious.
At three years, and $12-13 million, I like Lowe. Sounds like the price is more like 4-5 years, $16-19 million, though. Of course, the teams dropping out could rapidly bring that down.
I don't love going three years on Lowe at his age, but it's better than 4, and much better than five.
I still prefer Perez for the same number of years- at 2-3 years, it's a lot closer, though.
Regarding your fifth starter is free issue- if Maine weren't coming off of surgery, Pelfrey off of his first good year with a huge jump in innings, I'd feel a lot better about the idea. But the principal reason to build pitching depth is that pitchers get hurt- and suddenly your number 5 guy is your number 3 guy.
I do like Marquis over Niese as fifth starter next year, especially with Marquis signed for one year, giving Niese a full season at AAA, ideally.
He's not what he once was, but he's about as durable and reliable as they come.
Sheets pitched 198 innings this year. That was the most he had pitched since 2004. 2004 is also the last time Lowe pitched fewer innings than Sheets pitched this year.
This I agree with. I don't believe Niese is ready for MLB yet (even as a 5th starter). Marquis being signed for just one more year gives Niese time to develop and get some spot MLB starts as injuries happen.
It seems to me the Yankees are pretty much setting their own nutty little market for whomever they seek. I think Omar would be playing it just right to let the smoke clear, see which pair of pitchers Cashman signs to go with C.C. in that particular market, and then goes after whomever is left -- maybe Lowe, maybe Ollie -- as the biggest remaining checkbook among the somewhat sane teams who need pitching. The value he'll get for Wilpon's $$$ will be much, much better, and leave some cash in the vault for mid-season needs.
Well, Chris, I think most of us here are for signing Bonds. We just know it's never going to happen, so it's not even worth talking about in the hypothetical. As for the others, their cost simply is greater than their value to the Mets would be. If Manny would be willing to play for $12m/year, I'd love for the Mets to sign him. If Tex is willing to play left field, I'd love for the Mets to sign him. Realistically though, their cost way surpasses any gains they'd give the Mets.
Signing a Sheets to fill the last spot in the rotation would provide a huge boost at what would probably be a reasonable price. Probably similar to the upgrade any FA OF would provide over Murphy or Hudson would over Slappy. I don't exactly know what the team's budget is. It seems like the Wilpons are willing to go over their basic budget when the team can be significantly improved by doing so. That makes me think that improving the back of the rotation so that it's not just Figgy/Marquis/Niese wouldn't mean that the 2009 lineup would have to mirror the September 2008 lineup.
Also, on a related note, has anyone heard anything about Moises Alou? Is he going to be "healthy" for the start of the season. The Mets obviously could not rely on him to give them even a single AB, but is their any chance he comes back. On the rare occasion he played, he was fun to watch, and he'd be a cheap gamble with no real risk if he comes back.
OK. Of course it's more complicated. The way you presented it, it sounded like the logic was: "Hey, I just found out that most teams have sh-tty 5th starters. We can have a sh-tty 5th starter too!"
Obviously that is dumbing the point down. But I don't see why it matters what other teams have for that slot. You are trying to maximize wins per dollar spent in the offseason. It might be very easy to prove to me that those $6-10 million are better spent on LF or 2B - in fact it appears that you consider it self-evident - but you haven't proven the point here, and the 83 ERA+ number is irrelevant, in my opinion.
The Marquis trade makes a lot of sense to me. I value 180 average innings very highly, especially now that any above average starter is talking about $13+ million per year on the market. Marquis at $10 million is only a slight overpay, if at all. Schoeneweis is decent but I don't mind losing him to upgrade a starter's spot.
I am also more pessimistic than you are about how easy it is to cobble together a 5th slot using spare parts. It seems an almost yearly refrain that Mets fans say, "Well, look at how HORRIBLE our 5th starters were last year. If we can just put together a 5.00 ERA, which should be easy to do, we've gained 2 wins!" But then we say the same thing next year. Our two best candidates for the role today, Niese and Figueroa, combined for a 5.70 ERA last year as starters. They could both wash out and we'd be in Limaville.
Exactly. I can see the argument for both Lowe and Ollie, and much like K-Rod/Fuentes, I'd grab the one you don't have to pay a premium for in dollars and especially years.
I think Niese should be ready by midseason. But still, it never hurts to have an extra starting arm, and I think Marquis has proven himself to be above replacement level. I don't want him to block Niese or Gee from getting their shots though.
1) Sheets and Pedro
2) Ollie
3) Lowe
I really like the potential upside you get with Sheets. If you can get to the playoffs with him healthy (which is the big trick), Santana and Sheets would be an outstanding 1/2. His health is a big enough concern though that I think you have to sign another starter as well, which is where Pedro comes in. Niese could start the year at AAA and fill in when the inevitable injury comes along.
I prefer Ollie to Lowe. Lowe is better but he's a lot older. I don't think he's signing for less than 4 years and while I imagine he would still be useful in year 3 and 4, I think he will be significantly overpaid. I also think there could be some upside left with Ollie - he's a lefty headcase with great stuff - don't those guys mature later than most?
Tex would be a very, very interesting play if the Mets had a quality deal lined up to send Delgado someplace for a starter or a LFer. You have to wonder if some team wouldn't even take Castillo's contract in order to get Delagdo's very reasonable one-year deal . . . . It sure doesn't look like Omar has even explored that option, though.
Also, on a related note, has anyone heard anything about Moises Alou? Is he going to be "healthy" for the start of the season. The Mets obviously could not rely on him to give them even a single AB, but is their any chance he comes back. On the rare occasion he played, he was fun to watch, and he'd be a cheap gamble with no real risk if he comes back.
Ugh. Please don't get me started. The seasons the Mets lost to the reckless, foolhardy decision to believe that Moises Alou could make it through a major league season . . . . No spring training invite. No minor league, make-good contract. No gold watch. Just good-bye, and PLEASE learn from your mistakes, Omar.
Well, in one of those years, the decline was all of 2.2 innings (from 2006 to 2007). Another way of talking about Marquis' innings is that he has pitched over 190 innings every year but one (last year, I grant you) since 2004.
But yes, he's a mediocre pitcher. Which is why his chief selling point is that he gives you innings at a decent major league level. Nothing great. Not even particularly good. But serviceable innings, which is nothing to sneeze at. Many, many more innings than Scott Schoeneweis. Depending on how much of the $6M difference in their salaries the Cubs picked up, I could certainly see why that deal would help rather than hurt the Mets. It wouldn't be a huge step forward, but it wouldn't hurt, either.
Just not as a substitute for getting the actual good pitcher the Mets really need, that's all.
The entire idea of slotting starters has no connection to reality. There is no such thing as a fifth starter and there is no such thing as a bad pitcher who is good enough for the "fifth" spot. That study did more damage to how we conceive of starting pitching than DIPS because it made it seem that bad pitchers were actually average.
No team and no commentator should ever use this kind of language. It's silly and fruitless. No team that wants to contend should enter the season with any bad starting pitchers regardless of what day they happen to pitch.
I kid, I kid. If this affects the team's payroll, then the Wilpon's are bigger chumps that any of us think.
I agree with this. This whole idea of talking about pitchers as if they're a 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 always makes me chuckle. Well, not always, but sometimes!
There may well be pitchers who can "approximate Marquis' performance," but Pedro is most definitely not one of them. The last thing the Mets need is to re-sign the Moises Alou of starting pitchers. I hate to say this about Pedro, but what the hell -- someone has to. He is simply not a guy who can or should be counted on at all. At all. He can't stay healthy with the workload of a major league pitcher. His body can't do it any more. To sign Pedro is to give in to understandable affection and nostalgia, and to put Dan Warthen and Jerry Manuel and all of us through the wringer one more time.
No way, no how, not again. If you sign Pedro, you may as well be saying you are turning the 5th spot over to Niese and Figueroa. He will break down, he will miss weeks, probably months, at a time. If and when he comes back from those muscle strains or tears, he will be so rusty he will be useless. Valiant, but useless. By the time the rust starts to flake off, he'll get hurt again. The spirit is not only willing, it is amazing. But the body simply isn't able.
Bob Seger said it best, boys. Turn the page.
But billyshears is all for it for baseball reasons (# 31). Others have supported it, too. I just can't see it.
Another guy I'd like the Mets to consider is Bartolo Colon.
Why Colon before Penny?
These are roster spots, Rasky. Roster spots. You can't allocate them to guys the team simply can't count on. We have been down this road before and it has contributed mightily to the ruination of the last two seasons. Omar has to get off of this Proven Veteran™ treadmill, especially when it involves these guys with massive, now virtually indisputable track records of consistent breakdowns in the face of the physical burdens of the major league season.
I am just stunned, honestly, that any Mets' fan would want to continue down that road. With any players like that, really, but with those specific ones in particular. The sooner we can get rid of the third Bobsey Triplet -- Castillo -- the better. Unfortunately, that one is going to take some time.
I don't think that's true. It's not easy to find a 95 ERA+ pitcher. They have value.
It's certainly not easy to find one guy that can do that for you. And if you don't even have that one guy - just a collection of NRIs, prospects and minor league veterans that you hope to sort out - then you are really in trouble. If you are already cobbling together your rotation on day one, you will be ###### in midseason when one or two of your good starters goes down with an injury.
At the very least, the Mets have not been good at doing this. The one real success story out of the 6th slot mishmash is John Maine. But the year he debuted also saw Alay Soler, Dave Williams, Jose Lima and Geremi Gonzalez tally up 20 starts between them. It's not easy. I have no faith that New Orleans will be stocked with guys that can hit a 90 ERA+ in the bigs
That I agree with. The Mets will have arms help coming from the farm in a year, there's no need to overpay longterm for an innings-eater.
I am just stunned, honestly, that any Mets' fan would want to continue down that road. With any players like that, really, but with those specific ones in particular. The sooner we can get rid of the third Bobsey Triplet -- Castillo -- the better. Unfortunately, that one is going to take some time.
I don't see any problems with roster space. Niese has options and Figgy - as much I like the guy - is major league/AAA shuttle fodder. You can always call them up 2-4 times during the season to fill in whenever Pedro or Sheets get hurt. You can throw Parnell into that group as well.
Alou is for bench/right platoon bat. In neither case will the Mets be counting on them for anything critical. That's the difference between next year and last year, when we "needed" them.
Heck, I even support signing El Duque to an incentive-laden contract.
Cora would be a nice signing (and a nice complement to Murphy at 2B, not that it's going to happen...)
Yes, a big injury and you are in trouble. That was one reason we shouldn't have let Darren Oliver go. Figueroa/Vargas fill that role very well though. Plus, when you have crap in that role, you are (IMO) more likely to *skip* that slot. If you have an established pitcher there, you tend to give him his starts. We don't want that. I'd like to see the Mets push Santana/Lowe/Perez to 36 starts.
I absolutely agree.
Our Heinous can't do this?
I was!
Argenis is a pretty horrible hitter, he had a .670 OPS in the minors last season and was at about .500 last season. Cora is a better bet. Honestly, I had totally forgotten about Argenis but still I'd prefer Cora to him.
The "problem" is that if you sign Alou and Pedro, that's two roster spots you COULD have used to sign somebody else. Somebody who might actually help your team instead of wasting the year away on the DL. Somebody who might not have the pedigree from a decade ago, or five years ago, but who is, I don't know, actually capable of playing major league baseball now? Wouldn't that be nice, to have a bench, and bullpen, and back end of the rotation, stocked with players who can actually contribute as they currently are instead of as Omar Minaya remembers them from their Glory Days?
I had a friend was a big baseball player,
back in high school.
He could throw that speedball by you.
Make you look like a fool, boy.
Saw him the other night at this roadside bar,
I was walkin' in, he was walkin' out.
We went back inside, sat down had a few drinks,
But all he kept talkin' about was
Glory days.
The "down year" is what we are going to get if we have Figueroa and friends as the only option.
Uh...
But I don't think it's a problem specific to Omar Minaya. I think it's just REALLY difficult to find solid 6th starters. I'm sure most other teams have their own horror lists. You're breeziness in asserting that one can easily find an acceptable substitute reminds me of 10 years ago when statheads said things like, "Anyone can pick up Billy McMillon for peanuts and have an instant 900 OPS in their lineup."
When healthy, I think Pedro and Alou are good players. The spots and the salary slots they would be taking would be for marginal players anyway. For example, Alou would probably compete with Angel Pagan. Pedro would be fighting with Niese/Parnell, and you can always call up Niese or Parnell later on in the year anyway.
The expectations have changed. They still have the ability to be better than average, and the Mets wouldn't be counting on them in any important roles.
So are Stan Musial and Tom Seaver. I don't want the Mets to sign them, either.
I'm operating under the assumption that all it would take is something like a 1yr/$2 mil deal. I don't bring Pedro back for any more than that. I just can't see how signing Pedro to be the #5 and having Niese waiting in the wings in AAA is somehow worse than not signing Pedro and handing Niese the #5 slot.
1) You've thrown $2M down the toilet.
2) You have signed Pedro instead of acquiring someone else to compete with Niese for that slot. Someone else who actually has a snowball's chance in hell of giving you major league innings. It is a false to assume the choices are limited to either Niese, or Pedro/Niese. The correct answer is: (c) Niese and somebody else.
But then the answer is really just somebody else. I think Niese can do a credible job in the rotation this year and I think teams should generally use the 5th starter's slot to break in young pitchers whenever possible. If we get Jason Marquis to pitch his 200 mediocre innings and sign Lowe or Ollie, we're probably having the exact same conversation about Niese next year. Signing Pedro, expecting only 100 innings and committing to a corresponding usage pattern while using Niese to fill in the gaps is a way to make Pedro's fragility a feature rather than a bug.
I'll give you this, billy. That is one hell of a creative argument: we should want a pitcher whom we can expect to break down because it will help us bring along our young prospect. Don't go for the reliable pitcher who will give us the innings we need and help us win -- go for the old, fragile guy instead!
Um, no thanks. I have zero doubt that there will be a need for a nice contribution at the major league level from Niese whether we sign Pedro or not. John Maine is coming off of shoulder surgery. Lowe and Marquis are not exactly youngsters. If history has taught the Mets anything these last 4-5 years, it's that we always need our 6th starter at some point along the way. Usually our 7th, and 8th guys, too. We don't need to sign Pedro for that to happen. Of that I'm confident.
You're a dick, yet we keep reading your pretentious, arrogant musings.
If the Cubs eat some salary, i'd trade Schoeneweis for Marquis, then get Brian Tallet to replace him.
You may have missed the argument above that we ought to have a really crap 5th starter so that the manager might be tempted to skip him in the rotation once or twice
Have you met him? Do you know him personally? Did he say bad things about your mother? What....did he hit a grand slam off your team as a pitcher while they were in the playoff hunt?
(sorry....these are just the questions you jump on people with when they comment on Bonds's likeability...well except the last one!)
And I said (in post #4) "Yes, but as I understand it, he's a dick." As I understand it. I don't know him. Yes, I used shorthand for it in later posts, assuming people would read the entire thread. My mistake - it is the internet, where nits get latched on to rather than a view of the larger picture.
You do realize my quote was in fact from #4? (this is where you say "yes").
OK, let's say he was a turd when he was Brave, and wouldn't listen to a lot of guys who knew a lot more than he did and could have helped him be a lot better pitcher. I heard that stuff, too, and have no reason to doubt it.
But it has been about six years. It's not unreasonable to suppose that in the meantime, Jason Marquis might have learned something in his travels about what he didn't know then . . . perhaps even something about how young and stupid he was then. Perhaps he even regrets how he acted when he was a phenom. I don't know, one way or the other. But I'm not going to assume I know what kind of teammate he would be, and hope the Mets make the decision, based on how he acted as a kid pitcher with the Braves in 2000, 2001. Sure, let do some due diligence on his more recent rep. But mostly, get a guy who can pitch. That's what I really want.
There's a fairly good chance both Maine and Pelfrey are going to run into trouble this year. Neither has a track record of 200+ IP success, and that's why adding two more pitchers with durability issues to the starting rotation strikes me as an unnecessarily risky plan. That's also why adding a reliably durable fifth starter--Marquis--is a particularly good idea. Hell, if Marquis can put up another respectable year, we might even get through a month or two when BOTH Maine and Pelfrey are out or merely awful.
The idea of getting Marquis and leaving the rotation at that is madness, btw. The rotation is just too weak, young, and unproven.
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