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1. Russlan is not Russian Posted: December 17, 2008 at 02:48 PM (#3031573)They non-tendered Argenis.
I think you meant Alex Cora.
As it is, I think the lack of buzz around him might be deserved. He is going to sign what will look like a bargain contract, possibly with a crappy team, but to people with better knowledge of his health it might all make sense.
Hudson's UZR for the past 3 years (/150):
-3.8
-2.9
-9.1
That looks as bad or worse than Castillo's. I don't see how you could consider Castillo's defense bad and Hudson's good, unless some other stats tell a starkly differnt story.
He's still a nice player and Carruth at Fangraphs wrote something today valuing him at $11 to $17 mil. I still wouldn't give up on Castillo as sunk cost, though.
It's not at all clear to me that even if Castillo is now and will remain a below average 2b, that he's not the Mets best option. Say a clear (else why bother) alternative exists (Aaron Miles, btw, is not that alternative. He just had his lucky year, and still wasn't that good). That clear alternative is going to cost 7-10 million per year for x years. (A one year fix probably sinks Castillo's entire contract.) There very may well be a better way to spend those millions, like a real OFer at 12 million per in this market, since Church is not the answer, and Adam Dunn will probably be in 2010 as fungible as OFers get, if Murphy proves himself in LF and Martinez is ready. It's not like Castillo is putting up a 50 OPS+ and can no longer turn a double play.
I probably missed some statement or post on this, right?
And Murphy now has a grand total of 3 weeks of second base experience, which was apparently sufficiently dreadful for a team that thought Kaz Matsui was a solid SS to abandon ship. Would you really have him start picking up second base in Spring Training?
I would sign OHudson and try to deal him when Havens/Flores is ready.
Fair enough, Chris. The problem is that trying to get a young, talented ballplayer who has had some success in the OF to play a passable 2b, a position he has no real experience with, where his deficits won't outweigh (or interefere) with his hitting, is a nearly impossible task even on six months notice. To think that that little experiment can begin in February dangerously underestimates the difficulty of it. It's as though, because the Mets made a bad decision in October, they should now make a worse one in Spring Training. It's just too good a way to injure one of your very few talented young players. Murphy has a great deal to learn about playing LF. Let's find out if he can be a very good, or merely good LFer, and not throw his career away on a true longshot. Besides, who plays LF if we give Murphy to 2b? And if you say, let's sign a FA, I'll reply, let's instead with that money sign a FA to play 2b and let Murphy build on his already excellent work in the outfield.
As for throwing Murphy into the MI in the middle of a division race, one the Mets had every hope of winning as of late summer 2008, and during and to which Murphy was making a valuable contribution in the OF, and for which position there was no replacement that I can see, I can only ask, cheerfully, are you insane?
Did you just appeal to the authority of the Mets FO decision making? I suppose they are infallible. Well, no. I'd have people hitting grounders to him *right now*, or into whatever games I could find. But yes, come ST, he'd be playing second base for a long enough time for me to decide that his *overall value* isn't higher.
In addition, Murphy's value at 2B is greater than "Murphy at 2B". We have Castillo at 2B + Murphy in LF (a net negative) versus Murphy at 2B + a good hitting LF for a net positive.
It isn't *just* that Murphy is better than Castillo at 2B, but that we can find a LF that's better than Murphy, and upgrade to positions *significantly*.
I'd think this was most apparent to Yankee fans.
Above average LF FAs are easier to come by than FA 2Bs. I think we have demonstrated there are not "good" 2B FA candidates.
No, and I hate to be stupid, but that makes even less sense to me. "Couldn't arrange"? Please tell me that's your wording and not theirs, because I'll cry.
Has there been a single statement anywhere, a sentence, an offhanded comment from some Mets coach or staff or office somewhere that remotely explains why the Murphy to 2B plan has been abandoned at this point?
It seems like your plan creates at least the possibility of the Mets having an expensive left fielder who'll play, a cheap left fielder who won't, and absolutely no one capable manning of second base. Espcially because, as I mentioned above, the Mets have already tried Murphy at second base once this offseason and decided he can't cut it.
Secondly, stop appealing to authority wrt what the Mets FO decided.
It's not appropriate to compare it to moving to LF, an easier position. It's quite different. Moves the "wrong way" on the defensive spectrum require much more time and TLC.
There is always next year, of course. In the meantime, Castillo's presence shouldn't prevent the Mets from signing or trading for someone who is actually good (e.g. O. Hudson, Uggla). If not, then I guess we're starting Castillo -- I don't think Eckstein/Cora types would be any better¹. I don't think starting Castillo makes the division unwinnable, so that won't make me cry if it happens. But, preferably it won't.
¹ Not sure whether I'd put Grudz, Durham and O. Cabrera in the O. Hudson category or the Eckstein category. I do have some sympathy for the "who's healthy today?" platoon of Nomar/Castillo, because I'm assuming Nomar realizes that no one is going to commit to him as an everyday player at this point, saving me the trouble of having to decide who should start every day if we got him ;-) I do get the impression that Nomar a) wants to play in California and b) wants a lot of money given the production you can expect out of him, so it's probably not all that likely.
(1) Murphy in LF + FA Second Baseman
(2) Murphy at 2B + FA Left Fielder
You would want #2, because of the weakness of the second base free agent class. That seems like a hasty conclusion to draw without going through things or knowing exactly how bad Murphy will be at second base.
(Incidentally, the choices I left out there at FAs at both positions, which is probably the best choice if most expensive and Murphy in left and Castillo at 2B, which is probably the worst.)
And I'm appealing to the authority of the Mets FO because they are--literally--the only measure we have on Murphy's D at second.
No, they aren't.
And who else is weighing in on Murphy's defense at second? I haven't seen it. I'm not being delibertly obtuse here.
I'm not saying that that is bound to happen by any stretch, but it's pretty awful if it does happen, and that downside is why teams don't generally try to convert their top prospects to tougher defensive positions in a six-week timeframe.
That's based on the 17 games at AA last year, and however many he just played in the AFL before they decided it "couldn't be arranged" after all? That last sentence sounds more sarcastic than it is; I don't know where he might have played in college or previous springs or what have you.
I hope "couldn't be arranged" becomes the next Mets catchphrase, BTW.
That was a terrible answer, and really below you.
I'm guessing now that this answer is a "no".
Here, by contrast, we have a position that is hard to master, and a FO that thinks he can't do it. And while you're telling me to do the work, I did it. That's it, Murphy played 17 games at second base in Minors (and 15 games in the AFL for which I can't find the defensive stats even after a diligent look) and made 5 errors. Errors aren't the be-all and end-all, but that translates out to 48 over a full season, which is plainly unacceptable.
So either you look at those stats--as you told me to--and conclude that 48 Erorr Murphy can't cut it at second, or you rightly realize 17 games isn't no where near a big enough sample to draw from and have to rely on other methods. And the only other method right now, is the Mets FO, which pulled the plug on (or "couldn't arrange") the Murphy 2B experiment about as quick as they could.
Pete (laurel MD): Ok Klaw, lets get serious, can Danny Murphy really play 2nd base...will he?
Keith Law: (1:44 PM ET ) No, he can't.
In fact, it appears that there is basically no reason to think Murphy will be a MLB-caliber second baseman. Keith Law says he can't, the Mets think he can't, his stats are limited but gruesome, there's nothing.
You prefer him there because of your perception of how ghastly Castillo is and this "better LF" you keep talking about, but I'm not at all seeing how Murphy at at 2B + the "better LF" is a superior choice to Murphy in LF + a freee agent 2B. Those would seem to hinge entirely on what players are inserted into the non-Murphy spot.
Yes, and I'll accept that he easily couldn't be.
However, if one is going to take 17 games as the judgment, let's, I dunno, not to pick on Keith, but take Keith's first 17 columns and make a judgment on his career because of that. In fact, let's take 10 or 12 of those 17 columns and make the decision then as I doubt anyone making these decisions or writing these columns has actually seen every inning of every game he played at 2B.
Again - he might not be a good 2B or MLB-ready. But why have they not given it some kind of sample-size try? That's what I want to hear.
They aren't "gruesome". There *is* reason to think so - as much as anything else. I don't trust the Mets FO's decision making at all. they signed Castillo to a huge contract. They signed Alou to one. They aren't very capable, IMO, of properly projecting a player's future skillset. SO I have no faith whatsoever in their ability to identify whether or not *the total package* of Murphy at 2B is worth trying. Maybe he can't play 2B in the majors well enough that it doesn't negatively impact the team. But it's more likely he *can* in a manner that outperforms Luis Castillo.
I'd prefer you let me define why I think something. Well, that's just stupid. *OF COURSE* it depends on who plays those positions. If they sign *you* to play LF, then it will be a disaster. That's a strawman, non-starter position.
It's not a difficult exercise though (for me).
Murphy (at 2B) - Offense - +25 Defense (Jeter-like) - -25 He's league average.
Available LFs: PICK ONE (2008 OPD data): Dunn (+15), Abreu (-7 with +15 offense/-22 on defense), Manny (+40), Bonds - who do you want? They are going to be a + total player (part of that depends on how horrible Abreu is). Shirley you recognize that signing any one of these guys is going to be an above average player (better hitter, worse fielder, but overall a +10 to +20 (or higher) player)
Now Murphy in LF is an average player. Average hitter for LF (maybe slightly above) Average fielder (probably slightly below).
FA 2b: Each of the 2B's I listed were about average. Durham (+5 in 08) and Hudson (-1) were plus hitters but average to below defenders, but *usually* about average overall (-3 to +3 OPD). Grudz (-1 in '08) is a plus defender, but slightly below average hitter. He may come in higher than average, but is old. OCab is a good defender and a bad hitter (and may not like 2B, but he'd do - he was +8 in 08, but offensively compared to SS). In the end, this position setup will only net out *at most* +10.
The upside in LF is tremendous - we could be +30 there.
Now, that's what happens *if Murphy is godawful at 2B*. If Murphy is merely "terrible", not as bad as Jeter, he's a -15 defensively and overall +10. And if he staggers close to average around -5, then we are +20.
He can't hit as much as the bats available on the FA for LF.
And saying he played "infield" in the minors is outright deceiving. He played third base, almost exclusively: 196 games at 3B, 34 elsewhere, combined. Even now we could be generous and call Murphy a 3B/LF, but when it comes to his career in the minors he was a third baseman who had been tried elsewhere.
They're gruesome. He made 5 errors in 17 games! That's 44 errors per 150 games. Also, given that it is 17 games, almost entirely meaningless.
So you are going to completely dismiss the judgement of the Mets FO, and rightly ignore his limited (but horrible) statistic record you're left with two pieces of evidence: Keith Law thinks Murphy can't handle second base, and that Murphy was/is a 3B and you think he can shift to 2B. So I suppose that yes, excluding a goodly part of the evidence there is as much reason to think Murphy can handle second base as anything else. But then, that's always true.
It isn't a strawman, because I'm obviously not suggesting the Mets are going to sign me or you or Elvis to play LF (or 2B) next season, we're talking about viable candidates here.
You breaking it down answers a lot of these questions, and if that had been done from the start, it'd be clear. But a huge component of this is Murphy being even Kent-level at 2B. And not letting a move to a new, difficult position affect his hitting. There's a lot of "if's" in there.
Dunno what to say about this except it completely misses that LF is an isolated defensive position. The things a LFer has to do on D that involves other players is fairly minimal, while the oppostie is true for a 2Bman. Too, the defensive cost of platooning at a MI position is not insignificant.
It's not at all clear to me that the cost of a FA LFer, in money and years, makes signing one worth it. There's also little downside to keeping Murphy in LF as we already have a pretty good idea he can handle it. If we sign Adam Dunn to a 5/60 contract and Murphy washes out at 2b, we've basically thrown away a good, young, cheap ballplayer, an extremely valuable part of any club.
Now THERE'S a lesson in how to ruin a promising young hitter's career.
I'm basically an infield corner. I can play 2B or LF but I have my problems at either position. A lot like Murphy, I guess...
It isn't meaningless because it means he *knows* how to play the position. He isn't "learning" the position (mostly), he just isn't good at it yet.
It's also disingenuous to suggest that Murphy's baseball playing skills only contain 134 games. He knows *how* to play the positions. It's a matter of repititions to prevent errors. I think Murphy is significantly more valuable at 2B than LF, and as such should be given a proper tryout there. He's VERY unlikely to be worse (overall) than Castillo.
I know you weren't limiting to just these choices but I'd like to add another: (3) Murphy in LF + Castillo at 2B + Cheap glove man at 2B + all that money we might have spent on a FA LFer spent on a FA who can play RF (and ideally slot into 1B in 2010 if Martinez looks ready for the OF).
We'd at least have solid D at 2b, the strong possibility of having a cheap, average or above LFer slotted in for year, we get rid of having to rely on Church to play a full season, and we solve the 1b opening in advance. (And god, no, no new multiyear contract for Delgado if he has a decent year this year--he's old, he'll be overpirced if he puts up an OPS of .850, and he's the prefect old-guy Omar signing. No!)
Here, by contrast, we have a position that is hard to master, and a FO that thinks he can't do it. And while you're telling me to do the work, I did it. That's it, Murphy played 17 games at second base in Minors (and 15 games in the AFL for which I can't find the defensive stats even after a diligent look) and made 5 errors. Errors aren't the be-all and end-all, but that translates out to 48 over a full season, which is plainly unaccepta
The Mets DID reserve 2B for Murphy in the AFL. And he did play 2B in the AFL. The plan was for him to play 2B in the AFL and then in Puerto Rico. The plan came to a crashing halt when Murphy pulled a hamstring. He was limited to 15 games in the AFL and his Puerto Rico plans were shelved.
"Murphy was to have primarily played left field with the Ponce team in Puerto Rico..."
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081120&content_id=3687068&vkey=news_nym&fext;=.jsp&c_id=nym
BTW: This does make it sound like they make some sort of official arrangement ahead of time with the winter leagues as to what positions people will be playing. Is that even legal?
And Chris Dial stinks of human waste.
Also, I have something for you, but you need to email me your address. I have owed it to you for about a decade.
Okay, I disagree with that also ;-) Neither is a terrific idea, but I think the former is a lot worse.
Uh... No. If he doesn't know it as muscle memory he doesn't know it. This isn't a Trig test. If he's thinking "step across the bag and pivot" he doesn't know how to play second base.
....uh, could it be that he averages around 102 games per season? Ryan Church is a younger version of Moises Alou.
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