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1. Dan Posted: June 08, 2012 at 08:16 AM (#4151454)Damn straight, its a wonder Moyer hasn't tried that in his obvious desperation.
Dickey's success makes me happy, partially because we're probably related way back (my name is Dickie, and I heard once that the alternate spellings arose to identify the opposite political views of a branch of the family).
2: Easier said then done, of course. How many knuckleballers, regardless of when they started using the pitch professionally, hadn't spent years messing with it in their spare time?
Hey Chris - long time, no see...
The other thing, of course, is that if you throw the knuckler and you get bombed, everyone thinks you look like a Little Leaguer out there, whereas if you throw a 91 mph fastball with no movement and get bombed people just say "hey look, Blake Beavan".
Anyway, I wish the M's had kept him... he might be my favorite non-Mariner right now (and I will always consider Jamie Moyer a Mariner no matter what uniform he's currently wearing).
Dickey has really brought his pitch to a whole new level, to a point where it's almost silly to just say that he throws "a knuckleball." He varies his speed from 60 mph to 80 mph, and varies arm angles, and by god sometimes it looks like he can tell it what to do. He threw one high 80 mph knuckleball last night that cruised about a foot inside, towards the lefty batter's armpits (a bad swing and miss), and it looked a hell of a lot more like a Sergio Romo slider than it did any knuckleball.
And it's not just the great results: a NY Times post-game wrap up from two starts ago said that he has only recently had a series of minor revelations about the pitch. I'll take that as at least a bit of evidence that regression is not a foregone conclusion.
Also perhaps trying out for Grantland and failing.Yeesh.
For "full time" knuckleballers, I think Wilhelm might do the best here (unless Cicotte was FT, which I doubt.)
In '69 when Bouton had the 7.3 K/9 he spent time in both leagues. The AL had a 5.6 K/9 while the NL had a 6.0 rate.
Also, I understand you used a 100 IP cutoff but that gives us guys like Bouton, who were multi-inning relievers and 2001 Wakefield, who was used as a swingman. There wasn't much difference in K rate for Wakefield that year but I'd prefer the comparison to be guys who started the majority of the year, like Dickey will in 2012.
It's really hard to throw an effective knuckleball from a conventional delivery.
No he didnt literally "bounce out" of the majors any more than:
"Herschel walker literally ran himself into the headlines." Or:
"Camden Yards was literally exploding with Home Runs last night."
[end pedantic rant]
I also think Joe threw a harder knuckler than Phil.
Joe also got caught with an emery board in his glove or some incident like that.
Do you think back-to-back one-hitters AFTER this might change the answer now?
Last 4 games -- 34.333 IP, 0 ER, 42K, 4 BB. The only "blemish is 13 hits, because he allowed 7 hits in his first shut out.
We'll need another 5 or 6 seasons before we can say if he's for real or not.
I was happy to see him lifted after 8 last night, no reason to ride him harder than they have to, especially while they're still pretending to be in the race.
OT: I knew Flores got promoted to AA, but didn't realize they're trying him at 2B. This could be huge, and also looks like a sign that they'll try to keep Wright around.
(Honestly, I had no memory that Theoden's sword was named in the books, and I'd like to think that I remember the books fairly well).
Wait, what? Nimmo's played 12 games for Brooklyn, hardly enough to draw conclusions from. Am I missing something? I doubt he finishes the season with a .200/.407/.325 line.
Flores is up to .369/.409/.526 through 10 games at AA. FWIW, on the SNY broadcast they identified Flores and Den Dekker as the two most significant developments from the Met minor leagues in the first half. Den Dekker's struggled since getting to Buffalo, but his 2012 line still looks good overall-- .309/.362/.543, some steals but not at a great percentage. If he hits in the second half, it's a very strong possibility Bay's on the bench in 2013 with Kirk, Den Dekker, and Duda as the Mets OF (all lefties, so two of Bay/Hairston/Torres could still be useful).
Den Dekker is supposed to be a superlative centerfielder. He's old but he's moved quickly and his career minor league numbers are .288/.352/.487. At this point he kind of looks like Nieuwenhuis, but an even better defender. I like having guys like this in the system. Same with Valdespin, Satin. None of them ever rank high on the prospect lists, but in years past the Mets have had very few of these sorts of players available to plug holes. Duda and Thole were guys like this. And when you amass a whole bunch of them, odds are that you find a good starter or two or three.
Zack Wheeler, meanwhile, is still pitching some outrageous baseball...
He's 20 (21 in August) having success in High-A and AA. What else what you like to see him do? Supposedly, this year he' being a lot more selective and waiting for pitches to drive, whereas last year he was swinging more freely, trying to make contact with everything. His walk totals from 2009 on were 22, 32, and 27; this year he's up to 22 already, while his strikeouts have stabilized. Like Marte, he has been young for his leagues and promoted pretty aggressively. It's tough to see him staying at 2B, but as long as Davis and Wright are still in the team's long-term plans, there's no where else for him to go except the OF corners.
Not quite. He asks for his sword, but it's actually Hama who gives its name after it's been unearthed in Wormtongue's quarters.
Oh, I agree, it's a good thing. I'm not complaining.
Matt Harvey has been nearly as good at Triple-A.
Yeah, that's probably overselling it. But if he has a good second half at AA and can handle 2B (the latter is far less likely than the former), that's one more realistic possibility for a long-term solution at 2B. By the end of 2013, the Mets could have an entirely homegrown lineup, with 3/5 of the rotation coming from the farm system as well. Of course, they're most of the way there already, with Torres/Hairston the only imports starting regularly.
For single seasons, From 1901 to 2012, (requiring SO>baserunners_allow and Qualified for league ERA title), sorted by most recent date
Source: B-R PI
Yeah, I was wondering about this. I don't have an answer.
First of all, who do they need? A blockbuster starting pitcher would be nice, but other than that the only obvious place to tighten up is the bullpen. I'd like to have another good righty on the bench, someone to spell Davis and/or Duda, but that probably wouldn't be a major acquisition. I'd also like a real backup catcher, but again, not major.
The other important question is, are they for real? As noted by Cohen the other night, the run differential is now into the positive numbers and in fact the pythagorean record is only a game off the real pace. They're not benefiting from too many flukey performances - the big ones are from their stars, and they've had just as many flukey-bad players. Wright and Dickey could fall off their paces while Davis, Murphy, Thole and the bullpen start producing as they should. You don't need too much optimism to conclude that they are legit playoff competitors. And, gosh, with Dickey and Santana, that's a great start for a playoff team.
The Mets do have depth, if not a ton of quality, in a few places (middle infield, outfield, starting pitching), to make a move or two.
I was just wondering the same thing-- where would they upgrade? The rotation seems pretty well set-- though he's far from dominant, I can't see them bumping Gee. They've got Bay coming back in LF, for whatever that's worth. Everyone else seems pretty well fixed in their roles. A week ago I would have said 2B, but Murphy's hitting again. The bullpen seems like the most obvious spot. Toronto was said to be shopping Oliver, but now they're back in the mix again. With all of the teams hovering around contention, the only strategy might be to wait until mid-to-late July to see how things look.
Part of me thinks that the flags fly forever attitude is what got us in this mess to begin with, so they should just play the hand they've got, hope Mejia can get it together, then count on Wheeler and Harvey to nail down late innings in September. All depends on the cost of an upgrade.
Edit: Coke to Preserved...
Really? I always felt that Minaya's biggest flaw was that he didn't make the big deadline deal often enough. He made his deals in the off-season but a lot of those moves didn't cost the Mets a ton in prospects (Delgado, Santana). The Mets might have won the 2006 World Series if he had pulled the trigger on a Milledge-Zito deal that we would have all hated at the time.
Minaya signed some people to some bad contracts but that's the nature of the beast in free agency. Epstein has had his problems with that as well. That happens.
Seriously, who is the best player that Minaya traded away? Heath Bell, who was a 28 year old reliever with an 87 ERA+ at the time of the trade?
A week ago I would have said 2B, but Murphy's hitting again. The bullpen seems like the most obvious spot. Toronto was said to be shopping Oliver, but now they're back in the mix again. With all of the teams hovering around contention, the only strategy might be to wait until mid-to-late July to see how things look.
Duda is a good hitter but if you believe the defensive metrics he is below replacement and Murphy is a tad better than replacement. Do you waste a chance for the playoffs, with Dickey and Santana pitching like they are, to find out more information about whether or not Murphy can be an average second baseman? Duda is a first baseman/DH who is doing his best at a position that he really can't handle.
There's an argument about being aggressive and there's an argument for waiting things out. I'm not sure what the right answer is.
That's placing a lot of stock in defensive metrics. The player coming in to replace Duda/Murphy would have to be a clearly better one, and that's not going to come cheap, if it even exists.
The best bat on the market, if Toronto decides to punt (which they probably should, given the injuries to the starters), is Encarnacion, and I don't think anyone's confident about his ability to play the OF. Who's on the market at 2B?
Chris Young has been really good but would anyone bet on him staying healthy the rest of the season?
And obviously I'm being hasty with Nimmo. He hit a salami last night.
Yeah, the NYP league is just getting started. I'd give him a full season before drawing any conclusions.
After watching Scott Van Slyke the last few nights, I've recalibrated my setting for "terrible rightfielder." Duda is a poor outfielder, no doubt, but I do think he's improved over the season. In the first few weeks he was making ugly, awkward plays in every game. Doesn't happen quite as often now. "Below replacement" level doesn't seem right to me. His career OPS+ is 120, He's good enough to keep out there. Although, as I said above, I think the Mets should be able to spell at least one of Duda or Davis against lefty starters. Surely there's an available lefty masher out there that can play both positions.
"Win now" was a hallmark of the Phillips regime which is now, mercifully, a decade behind us.
I think this is a nice point that I hadn't considered. Harvey and Wheeler might be really good in the bullpen coming down the stretch. Wheeler can probably hit 97 coming out of the pen, and the limited role would minimize the immaturity of his offspeed pitches. Familia is struggling this year, and has long been seen as a potential reliever. These guys could provide a better boost than the next Rauch or Ramirez might in a trade.
As far as adding another starter, unless he's a clear upgrade over Niese, I don't think it would be worth it.
That said, I certainly don't think either one should be replaced, since they are both good young players. (And, of course, because Ike plays the position where we'd have to move Duda, and Ike/Wright play the positions where we could move Murphy.) It is funny that, given that this team is not exactly a juggernaut, there are few obvious holes. It would scare me to give up anything significant for a RP. You can sometimes get them very cheap, so that'd be fine. But I guess I would first be targeting a SP. An OF would be nice as well, insofar as we then would not have to be relying on Bay to give us anything at all.
I wouldn't mind a Met move. With a very young lineup already on the field, we can afford to spare some prospects, and it'd be exciting. Heck, if we get back someone who could be part of the long-term plan (Greinke?), I wouldn't even mind a big move where we give up top prospects.
Do we have to be anyway? I realize that it won't work out this way, but if you were managing, would you ever start Bay over Scott Hairston?
I'm assuming that none of Hairston, Torres or Bay is really a guy you want to be starting, either from a future or win-now perspective. Circumstances could change in the next month. BTW, not that I was against it at the time, but this Torres/Pagan challenge trade sure is not working out. We could have really used Pagan so far.
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