VÖRÖS' BASEBALL ANALYSIS PAGE

2001 PLAYER PROJECTIONS

Starters	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Matheny, Mike	402	44	99	19	1	7	44	30	87	1	1	0.246	0.301	0.355
McGwire, Mark	505	124	143	19	1	58	140	143	149	1	1	0.283	0.445	0.669
Vina, Fernando	597	82	174	32	5	7	64	51	47	13	6	0.292	0.351	0.397
Paquette, Craig	612	81	156	31	3	26	93	36	131	6	3	0.256	0.300	0.444
Renteria, Edgar	585	95	165	32	2	14	76	63	78	32	9	0.283	0.355	0.418
Lankford, Ray	561	95	145	28	2	27	91	87	181	13	6	0.258	0.361	0.461
Edmonds, Jim	560	97	152	30	1	31	101	88	154	9	5	0.272	0.374	0.495
Drew, J.D.	564	100	154	27	5	23	84	84	124	21	8	0.272	0.370	0.459

Reserves	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Hernandez, Carlos	401	48	107	20	1	8	48	31	57	3	2	0.267	0.323	0.385
Marrero, Eli	396	55	95	19	2	11	49	36	66	13	4	0.240	0.306	0.384
Polanco, Placido	609	74	170	28	5	8	63	39	55	7	4	0.279	0.325	0.381
Andrews, Shane	567	86	133	25	2	31	93	81	159	3	2	0.234	0.333	0.445
Bonilla, Bobby	567	77	138	25	3	16	69	81	102	1	1	0.244	0.342	0.380
McCracken, Quinton	592	76	151	30	4	6	58	56	109	15	6	0.255	0.323	0.352

Prospects	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Ortega, Bill	599	78	165	32	5	15	75	49	89	3	2	0.276	0.333	0.419
Saturria, Luis	603	74	135	27	5	16	68	45	175	11	5	0.224	0.281	0.367
Haas, Chris	575	74	126	24	3	18	69	73	187	3	2	0.220	0.311	0.366
Garrick, Matt	396	43	90	18	2	5	38	36	91	2	2	0.227	0.294	0.323

Longshots	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Stefanski, Mike	401	44	96	20	1	7	42	31	72	2	2	0.240	0.298	0.347
Figga, Mike	404	47	94	18	2	14	53	28	112	1	1	0.232	0.285	0.389
Sutton, Larry	564	78	139	27	3	13	66	84	105	5	3	0.246	0.348	0.375
Clapp, Stubby	573	74	136	27	6	7	53	75	130	7	4	0.238	0.329	0.342
Garcia, Luis	625	67	159	30	4	11	67	23	113	5	3	0.254	0.284	0.369
Lucca, Lou	616	70	158	36	2	13	75	32	110	4	3	0.257	0.297	0.387
Polcovich, Kevin	592	68	136	28	2	7	56	56	115	9	5	0.229	0.298	0.322
Gilkey, Bernard	575	78	142	27	2	15	70	73	111	7	4	0.247	0.335	0.379
Mabry, John	598	73	146	30	2	18	78	50	144	2	2	0.244	0.306	0.393
Robinson, Kerry	604	84	162	23	7	3	49	44	74	31	9	0.268	0.320	0.344

Notes:

As the balance to my view on the Reds, I think the Cardinals are being a bit overhyped this year. Yes they have some thunder and yes any team with McGwire has a 20 yard head start, but the Cardinals are the only team in the NL whose best hitter is a serious injury risk and they look serious about both Matheny and Paquette in the lineup everyday. A favorite? Sure. The favorite? Not so sure.
Mike Matheny is the captain of my HACKING MASS team.
Paquette's certainly a finalist.
Shane Andrews is a player whose strengths have recently been fairly overlooked in favor of harping on a few obvious weaknesses. The fact is, Andrews has great power and draws his share of walks, and posses a terriffic glove when healthy. He is not a good regular third baseman by any stretch, but as stopgaps go, he's a top of the line model.
If Quinton sees that projection, he's gonna kick my ass at the family reunion.
Bill Ortega hasn't gotten a lot of prospect press, but he's a keeper. Can hit.
Kerry Robinson can run like hell and is exactly the kind of player LaRussa occassionally takes a shying too. Might get some PT.

Vörös McCracken
voros@daruma.co.jp
March 1, 2001