Sinkbeil has a 1.23 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 22 innings for Greensboro.

Minor nit: Sinkbeil's stats are actually his numbers at Jamestown (NY-P); he was recently promoted to Greensboro and will be making his full-season debut tonight, I believe.

-- MWE

By the way, let me mention this before anything else.

Thanks to Jeff Albert (aka Marcus Giles 2) as he is the true swing guru behind it all. We will work to give you video comparisons where we'll show you what terms like "disconnecting" mean. Why are we so down on Johnson and Place, what do I mean by Lincecum's step over? Why is conger's swing so good? Stay tuned....

Oh , and I almost forgot. Thanks to Mike and Dan, for cleaning it up for me.....sorry fellas

Carlos, first, that was a very interesting read. Second, can you explain a little more about why you like pitchers "who try to throw the crap out of the ball," who have "great intent," as you described Brendan Morrow?

Minor nit: Sinkbeil's stats are actually his numbers at Jamestown (NY-P); he was recently promoted to Greensboro and will be making his full-season debut tonight, I believe.


Oops, that was my fault.

Per Cody Johnson, he supposedly has amazing power and he is only 17. He's got plenty of time to develop and for somebody in the Braves organization to fix that ugly thing he calls a swing.

We all tend to like guys who have "easy" velocity, of course. We think that if it looks easy, then it must be that there is less stress on the arm and body. However, there is nothing "easy" about throwing a baseball hard, really hard.

Generally speaking, there aren't many pitchers who generate plus velocity that aren't very aggressive with their lower body/torso and then translate all that energy into an aggressive throw. I've always liked what Ted Williams had to say on that issue in his book (grunt a little bit to throw hard). A pitcher who is aggressive with his body needs to do less work with his arm in order to accelerate it to where it needs to be in order to produce a 95+ mph fastball. IOW, a guy who has "great intent" is being efficient enough with his body that it allows his arm to go as fast as it needs to. It starts with tempo, with building up momentum with your body on the way to foot plant. Compare Sinkbeil to Morrow. Even though Morrow throws a little harder, I'd say Sinkebeil has greater bad stress on the arm because his body is less involved (it helps less) than Morrow's.

Also, I find it more aesthetically pleasing when a guy can coordinate his body as quick as it needs to be in order to throw a ball that hard. It's a mark of athleticism. I'll take an athlete over a non-athlete any day.

Thanks, CBW. I understand the concept better now.

Nicely done, Carlos. This is based on the stuff you did around the time of the draft, right?

What does "arm action" mean? What's the difference between excellent, good, average, and bad arm action?

A pitcher who is aggressive with his body needs to do less work with his arm in order to accelerate it to where it needs to be in order to produce a 95+ mph fastball.

To add to CBW's assessment a little bit I also think that better/efficient body movement also helps in the deceleration of the arm after a pitch is thrown which is also hard on an arm over the coarse of a year.

Nicely done, Carlos. This is based on the stuff you did around the time of the draft, right?

Thanks, and to answer your question....yes it is.


What does "arm action" mean? What's the difference between excellent, good, average, and bad arm action?

Arm action is simply the path your arm takes from breaking the hands from the glove to release. I'll try to show video examples of good and bad arm action in due time.

Another scout, Jim Walton, had a really nice description on MLB.com some time ago.

Proper arm action: From the start of separation or taking the throwing hand out of the glove with the thumb down while in the pivot position,

- the uninterrupted range of motion of hand, elbow and shoulder extending in a backward arc behind the body

- starting forward in an elliptical motion with a smooth or fluid flow with no impeding flop, hook (hooking the ball behind the back before unleashing throw), wrap (twisting the wrist over before throwing) or jerk

- transmitting energy and force through hand and arm with full extension to the ball while in the physical act of throwing

a Sinkbeil vs. Morrow comparison tempo-wise. I have video of them, just need to compress and edit it. However, here's Morrow at release vs. where Sinkbeil is, synchroznized from the apex of their knee lifts.


major differences

Thanks this is great stuff!

I appreciate that you've only got the MLB videos to go on, but I think it's been pretty well-documented that Jeffress does throw 95-100. He was reported to have thrown several pitches at triple digits in a recent AZL game. Maybe in the one video they had he was taking it easy. He pitched in something like only 6 games his last season in high school, for some reason, so they might not have had a lot of video. That said, it is a high-risk pick for all the obvious reasons; and if you weren't impressed with his mechanics at 88 mph, maybe that does indicate trouble.

Here is that pic of the MAJOR DIFFERENCES again

re-link from #14 above

Carlos, did you watch any of the futures game? Id love to hear what you think of the mechanics of Homer Bailey and Philip Hughes. Hughes' arm didn't seem to have the fluidity and whip that Bailey's did; is that bad, good, or irrelevant?

this is CBW. Didn't get a chance to watch it, but if you have a link to to Hughes and/or Bailey, I can check it out.

HSF, again this is CBW.

The review was based on the videos, and it was a minute video at that. I just don't see where 100 mph happens, not on this video. His mechanics are fluid, yes, but explosive enough? I don't see it. Maybe he wasn't going after it THAT day. I have issues with the reports scouts sometimes come up with. If you go pick-by-pick, even MLB.com overstates velocities for most of these pitchers. If a scout tells me a guy reaches triple digits, it stands to reason that I'd get to see 96 here, 98 there. I wouldn't expect to see an 88 anywhere close.

Didn't get a chance to watch it, but if you have a link to to Hughes and/or Bailey, I can check it out.

If you have MLB.tv, the Futures Game video is in the list of games for July 9 (WFT vs UFT, 4 PM).

-- MWE

There are a bunch of home videos of Bailey on youtube. Check em out. Not sure how much of the mechanics you can see, the angles differ a lot.

Phil Hughes during the Futures game

Come to think of it, I can get some video of these guys the same way this (second) guy did - just take a video of my TV. Anyone miss the game and care to see?

I wouldn't expect to see an 88 anywhere close.

Maybe the 88s were hanging sliders!

I read some more on Jeffress that said he tends to lose velocity as the game wears on. That could be a strength/stamina issue which is likely correctable. Still, I do think he's a project with a long way to go.

Thanks for this Carlos! I was wondering if you could give me your opinion of Daisuke Matsuzaka as well?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAwmW2S-xX4&eurl;

wow, he's got a nice curveball. was topping out at 92 mph or thereabouts in those clips, i remember him being faster on the WBC gun but that one might have been juiced. is there video of the gyroball?

"is there video of the gyroball?"

Supposedly the gyroball is even more mythical than Felix Hernandez's slider.

If you say gyroball three times fast, Will Carroll breaks through the nearest wall yelling "oh yeah!"

isn't the gyroball is just how he throws his fastball? nothing crazy like will carroll claims.

when i play catch with my brother he says the gyroball style fastball has a little bit of tailing action compared to a regular fastball, but i don't know for sure if i'm doing it right.

Re: Hughes and Bailey

Whoa, first time watching either of these two. That's pretty good. I like Hughes more, although there isn't much to not like in either. I'd have to go slow-mo on them to detect other differences, but these guy are both excellent. Fluid, compact and powerful..outstanding

Re: Matsuzaka

You know, I'm not a big fan of real slow deliveries common to far east pitchers. However, see how Matsuzaka speeds up from knee lift to release. That is good momentum/tempo. On that video he's just blowing it bast everyone, must be nice....

good tempo vs not-so-good tempo with 2 guys from above, Sinkbeil and Morrow.

Morrow vs Sinkbeil

These are somewhat synchronized to release. As you can see by these, although Sinkbeil has started his drive before Morrow, Morrow catches up to him and it fact beats him by a frame.
When I sync these to knee lift, Morrow beats Sinkbeil by at least 3-4 frames. Sinkbeil is tough to tell because he pauses at the top.

Another few notes....
Look how much more ground Morrow covers as well. Morrow probably throws a hard 95+, whereas Sinkbeil (since he's a short strider) probably throws a soft 93-94. IOW, he just basically releases the ball farther away from home plate than Morrow does. THIS is HUGE and something I'd like to work on to quantify in the future.

Frame 21-22---separation explained. Notice how the hips/legs/midsection assist in quick torso rotation. I'm talking Morrow here. You know, now that I've seen Sinkbeil more up close, I'm not so sure I like him as much anymore....more later....

CBW, I don't know if you already know this but the 2004 and 2005 scouting videos are still available. There you can watch Hughes, Bailey and the videos are all much longer.

The #1 guy is the Giants pick.
The #2 guy is from Cal.

This makes me happy.

Norcan---thanks for the tip. I didn't know they were available.



The #1 guy is the Giants pick.
The #2 guy is from Cal.

This makes me happy.

The more I watch their videos, the more I'm certain these are my top two guys, btw.

Conger - switch hitting catcher with power and a swing like David Wright (minus a small adjustment) ...

how did he last that long? Nice pick for the Angels to pick up a homer who can hit homers

"how did he last that long? Nice pick for the Angels to pick up a homer who can hit homers"

What annoys me is that the Braves had been linked to Conger for weeks before the draft, only to pass him up in favor of Johnson.

Now, I wasn't really in a position to criticize a particular choice of high school players, because what do I know about them? But it struck me as a strange decision then, and reading these reports hasn't helped me.

CBW,

I hadn't paid that much attention to Morrow. Wow. Love that action. Does he remind you of a bigger Oswalt, or is it just me? He's really exploding through the delivery, a good kind of violence.

judging solely by the video comparison of their swings, I really have to say the Braves missed this one.

otherwise it is hard to say without seeing them play consistently. that's where the scouts come in. Atlanta does have McCann and Saltalamacchia (sp?) but never hurts to have a switch hitting catcher with power coming up. Don't mean to point out the Braves here - plenty of other teams passed on him too.

I have a side by side of their swings that I will fire out here in the near future.

CBW,

I hadn't paid that much attention to Morrow. Wow. Love that action. Does he remind you of a bigger Oswalt, or is it just me? He's really exploding through the delivery, a good kind of violence.

Doesn't really remind me of Oswalt. Oswalt is quicker, as in, he has a faster tempo. No matter, Morrow's got some powerful mechanics of his own. Check out his arm action as well. Very good.
I made sure I compared Sinkbeil and Morrow from the windup. I actually like Morrow more from the stretch, as he is quicker with his tempo from the stretch.



judging solely by the video comparison of their swings, I really have to say the Braves missed this one.

See this is where it gets tricky for MG2 and I. We have limited video resources on which to base our conclusions. In order to have some kind of baseline comparison, I chose the MLB.com Scouting Bureau videos. Just like MG2 suggests above, I think it bears repeating that these are based only on the MLB Video.

CBW and MG2, great stuff. I've long been a BTF shadow lurker and had to come out of hiding for this thread, as I find myself watching these kid's videos often and forming my own opinions.
One thing that really jumped out at me though ..

Compare Sinkbeil to Morrow. Even though Morrow throws a little harder, I'd say Sinkebeil has greater bad stress on the arm because his body is less involved (it helps less) than Morrow's.

Morrow grew up in a town near mine and has always thrown hard so needless to say I've heard plenty about him ... usually that news went along the lines of how much or little his arm was currently hurting, usually the latter. This guy's arm problems prevented him from throwing substantial innings his whole time at Cal until this year. I'm as big a fan of short, tight, clean arm actions as (through reading all of this) I'm SURE you are. Not to dismiss your process of evaluation, but look at Sinkbeil's numbers through college (and summer ball). I don't need to point out all of dudes in pro ball who, despite their 'immaculate mechanics', have been ruined by injury. What are your other theories on pitcher durability factors? Just wanna hear more of your stuff because I've enjoyed all this so much, so far.

MG2, your site and blog is killer. Keep up the good work.

CBW, how "fixable" is Scherzer, in your opinion?

Holla--
first, I thank you for your comments. Second, I thank you for confirming my thoughts or Morrow, as in his injury risk. Let me explain. As much as I like how well Morrow "goes after it," he is VERY aggressive with his front shoulder as well. One of the Tom House teachings that I really look for is that "firm front side." If I had to choose the one thing that would scare me off on Morrow, that is definitely it, as it leads to greater shoulder injury risk. If you need to me explain "firm front" I can show ya an example of a good vs bad.

Re: Sinkbeil
You know, since I've put him under the microscope more, I'm really starting to not like him. I may have missed it a bit on his arm action. From the side shot of his mechanics, his slight pause would scare me a bit. Admittedly, I didn't do a frame-by-frame slow mo evaluation of all the players. For most of the evaluations, I watched the videos a few times at full speed, trying to pause them at appropriate moments. IOW, I may have missed it on Sinkbeil.


but look at Sinkbeil's numbers through college (and summer ball)
One thing I told myself before I did this was that I was going to try to not let numbers and hype influence my evaluations. I knew about a few of these players' numbers. I tried to keep that aspect of the equation out of it. However, as a big stathead, I would look at players' numbers as another really important aspect of their evaluations and then come up with my final draft board.



I don't need to point out all of dudes in pro ball who, despite their 'immaculate mechanics', have been ruined by injury. What are your other theories on pitcher durability factors?

Agreed. A lot of scouts/pitching coaches couldn't tell you what 'immaculate mechanics' look like anyways, so that may have something to do with it. Also, I'm more likely to like a guy who is agressive than one who isn't. Sometimes that carries with it a higher injury risk. However, when looking at the big picture, here's the thing. As a GM, what would I rather have? Do I want 10 years of average pitching or 6 years of max effectiveness? I'm in the latter category. Let me give you an example. Scott Kazmir. When I first saw video of him in high school, I was blown away by how well he used his body, his aggressiveness. I'm sure some were turned off by his higher injury risk. Next time I see video of him in a Mets uniform, I saw a slower, toned-down version of him. At that point, I blamed the Mets for trying to prolong his career by slowing him down. Now with the Rays, he seems to be getting back to High School Kazmir. It probably carries with it a higher injury risk, but I'd rather have that than what the Mets were seemingly turning him into.

I'm getting long-winded here, so I'll go into durability later. However, what other 'durability factors' did you want me to address? Are you talking pitch counts/mechanical issues/conditioning?

Firm front side, glove/elbows out front comparison.....

Morrow on the left, Kennedy on the right

CBW, how "fixable" is Scherzer, in your opinion?

Anyone is "fixable." Obviously the longer you've been doing something, the harder it is to undo the bad habits. Scherzer just needs to be more aggressive getting into footplant. However, he does one thing REALLY well at release, which I'll try to show with video and missed at first. I have to edit the video, so I'd need time. He does have the "intent to throw." It's just that his body isn't letting him throw as hard as he can.

A comparison of what I don't like about him....

Lincecum vs Scherzer

Both of these still shots are taken at 3 frames prior to release. LOOK at Lincecum's separation. Can you see how his midsection is about to bring the rest of his torso through?
Again, both of these are taken 3 frames prior to release. Look how much farther back Lincecum's arm is. Lincecum's arm is going to travel more distance in the same amount of time=better capacity for velocity.

re. the Lincecum vs Scherzer comp. pic.

Aside from the separation, that shot implies to me the Lincecum is using his entire upper torso much more effectivey to whip his arm forward

Think of a bullwhip where, in this case, the torso (spine) is the handle and the arm is the whip...Lincecum is more arched having more flex in the torso suggesting greater potential to snap his torso back forwards delivering his arm more forcefully to the plate. whether this is the case, I don't know (I don't have the full video on this computer) but the potential for greater velocity/efficiency is there based on this picture

re. the Lincecum vs Scherzer comp. pic.

Aside from the separation, that shot implies to me the Lincecum is using his entire upper torso much more effectivey to whip his arm forward

Think of a bullwhip where, in this case, the torso (spine) is the handle and the arm is the whip...Lincecum is more arched having more flex in the torso suggesting greater potential to snap his torso back forwards delivering his arm more forcefully to the plate. how Lincecum finishes this, I don't know (I don't have the full video on this computer) but the potential for greater velocity/efficiency is there based on this picture

You've certainly arrived when you get your first double post. Welcome to the club, MG2. I wish we had some hazing ritual for the newbies at BBTF.

I'm going to try to get to Greensboro to see Sinkbeil pitch. He started Monday, and should go again Saturday (when I can't go), then July 28 in Columbus, and August 3 at home against Savannah, when I probably can go.

-- MWE

is it technically a double post since they are slightly differt? Tried to hit the stop button so I could edit the post but first one snuck through on me. oh well

Don't have much to say because I'm trying to grok all this.

Great post, CBW. I hope your rankings prove to be true, Angels getting the top position player at the end of the first round.

We all tend to like guys who have "easy" velocity, of course. We think that if it looks easy, then it must be that there is less stress on the arm and body. However, there is nothing "easy" about throwing a baseball hard, really hard.

Is it or isn't it better to have an easy motion, all other things being equal?

Generally speaking, there aren't many pitchers who generate plus velocity that aren't very aggressive with their lower body/torso and then translate all that energy into an aggressive throw. I've always liked what Ted Williams had to say on that issue in his book (grunt a little bit to throw hard). A pitcher who is aggressive with his body needs to do less work with his arm in order to accelerate it to where it needs to be in order to produce a 95+ mph fastball.

But are you comparing "non-aggressive" guys that throw 92 to aggressive guys that throw 96? Yeah, I guess I'll take the aggressive guy here too. But I'll take the easy thrower at X mph over the whiplash guy.

#24 - Atlanta Braves - OF John Johnson

When I first reviewed him I thought he was a reach in the 1st round. After watching the video more closely, I think he’s a reach in the 10th round. Watching it today, his swing is just not good. He has a complete disconnect between his hands and body. Watching it with my swing guru buddy/cousin today, he expressed sheer disgust as we watched Johnson’s swing frame-by-frame. Most Sunday hackers slice because they come over the top of the ball by yanking the hands from the outside in, instead of turning your body quickly with the hands following until ready to unleash hell. My guess is Johnson, if he is a golfer, either has a severe slice or a pull-hook. I guess he has quick enough hands and is a good athlete, but, uh, not the right pick.

We're talking about a Brave's prospect from the Southeast, there is no way he doesnt become a Hall of Famer, IMO

And can someone link me to these videos?

This is really interesting stuff, but I have this nagging thought: isn't the time between the draft and getting out of the minors almost all about changing mechanics to maximize talent? I wonder if it's almost more useful to flip all the grades on their heads because those who have achieved success despite poor mechanics can improve their performance through good coaching, video and experience, whereas those who are already technically great are getting about as much out of their talent as they can. Thoughts?

there is no way he doesnt become a Hall of Famer, IMO

Wow. Just, wow. You don't have to be a "swing guru" to see this guy has a vicious hook-swing and therefore a massive hole on the inside half of the plate .. at least on what little is shown on the mlb.com video. Keep in mind this makes him susceptible to both inside corner heaters AND soft stuff away because he lacks extension on the outer half, all of which will get exposed at even the lowest levels of pro ball. However, you sound like you've seen more than any of us have to make an assumption like that. I'd also like to see extra video. The good news is he's left-handed and can get away with that, to a degree.

isn't the time between the draft and getting out of the minors almost all about changing mechanics

Significant mechanical (shoot, even smallest changes in most cases) adjustments can take YEARS to achieve. I read a study once that claimed it took 10,000 consective near-perfect repetitions to actually change muscle memory ... don't quote me on that because it was a long time ago ... but the prinicple remains, it would take super-athletic individual to undo years of mechanical sculpling. Most of these guys have been repeating the same mechanics since Little League. A coach of mine once showed a Scott Spezio HR at 11-year old and his go-ahead World Series bomb off of Felix Rodriguez and they were amazingly identical ... but thats only one example. Who knows what these organizational scouts are really looking for.

But are you comparing "non-aggressive" guys that throw 92 to aggressive guys that throw 96? Yeah, I guess I'll take the aggressive guy here too. But I'll take the easy thrower at X mph over the whiplash guy.

Is it or isn't it better to have an easy motion, all other things being equal?


Yes, but not in all cases would be my answer. I guess that's why I take Lincecum and Morrow over Hochevar.
To solidify your point, a guy who is throwing an "easy" X mph is being more efficient (in a way)with his mechanics than another guy who "goes after it."




We're talking about a Brave's prospect from the Southeast, there is no way he doesnt become a Hall of Famer, IMO

And can someone link me to these videos?

Funny you say this, b/c on a certain Braves board, I'm getting absolutely ripped for giving Johnson an F. Hey, someone in the class has to get it. He absolutely bombed the "swing test." And it bears mentioning this again.....Rankings based on this one video.....


Link to draft video


isn't the time between the draft and getting out of the minors almost all about changing mechanics to maximize talent? I wonder if it's almost more useful to flip all the grades on their heads because those who have achieved success despite poor mechanics can improve their performance through good coaching, video and experience, whereas those who are already technically great are getting about as much out of their talent as they can.

We were talking about this today. It is easier to work with a hitter who demonstrates certain swing qualities and then try to make that more efficient. In the case of Conger, we have a guy who already has a violent yet efficient super hack at age 18. His swing adjustments are easier to work on than reinventing the swing approach that say Jason Place or Johnson take. Major overhauls in swings/pitching mechanics take time... Years for some, and I'd say that the better athlete that you are, the easier it would be to make the necessary corrections.
A loose golf analogy between the differences in swings would be that Conger probably needs to make a slight grip adjustment. Johnson and Place need to relearn how to approach the ball, to turn their ugly slices into a powerful draw. That takes years sometimes.....

Not to mention that these major adjustments have to be field tested right away. You throw that on an 18 year-old kid, on top of the expectations. He hears something from his hitting coach, the roving hitting coordinator says this other thing, yadayada, you have one confused kid hacking away at the plate.

Holla snuck that one in while I wrote that post.

What I was unable to accurately convey regarding swing changes, well, Holla answered them for you. Excellent comments there...

To add to your post, I'd also like to see more video.

I was with both of you guys up until your last couple posts.

Can you see how his midsection is about to bring the rest of his torso through?

Yes, I see that. I also see how freakisly he is twisting that midsection and pulling his head off of the path to home plate. It has always been my observation that those who "throw with their ear" or pull their head out of the way to clear for arm path, are more suspectible to injury just due to the fact that such a type of action is biomechanically inefficent. Not only, in my estimation, should that lead to injury, but also wildness... only of which the latter has been Lincecum's problem. I guess my best example would be Steve Avery who, for as long as his arm could take it, was as legit as they come, but soon thereafter that biomechanical speed bump finally bit him in the ass. Everything I can see leads me to believe that maybe Lincecum is as "freakish" as I called him early; i.e. the fact that he throws massive innings, massive pitch counts, doesn't even ice his arm, and that I've personally seen him winging loss-toss less than 24 hours after he started a game, forget the fact he's a 5'nothing" absolute WIRE. So maybe maybe you can throw everything I just typed out the window, but I would also say that I'm not the only one who sees that leaning towards first base as a red flag ... maybe it wasn't just the million dollar bonus demand but that throwing action that caused him to drop into the second day of the draft in 2005? Either way, he proved to be worth it this year.

Lincecum is using his entire upper torso much more effectivey to whip his arm forward ... Think of a bullwhip where

I realize everyone who has ever thrown a ball harder than 60 miles an hour uses their arm in such a way ... but "bullwhip" just sounds like soreness, microtears, and eventual major surgery to me.

Look at the horses throughout recent history history: Clemens, Ryan, Maddux come to mind for me... all with steady head or face positions that, to me, resemble Scherzer moreso than Lincecum. Haha, that is not to say Scherzer is anything close to any of those guys. And I'd certainly draft Licecum over big Max if I were a GM, but whatever. I'm not really sure how any of what I just wrote is relevant. I guess I just don't have anyone to talk pitching with at midnight on a Thursday.

sorry to have lost you...hehe... we certainly need the audience.

I can see why Lincecum is a "red flag" guy, as you say. However, I don't see Avery as a good comp. Avery's major issue, IMO, was that his arm action went from decent to "Mark Redman" horrible in a hurry. Avery must have REALLY bought into the "show the ball to second base" bullshyt that ruined so many pitchers.

A guy who I'm starting to like more and more is Ian Kennedy. The more I watch the video, slow it down, the more I'm intrigued. I'd bet you really like his delivery. If you haven't checked it already, go ahead and check it out.

I don't know if you would consider this guy a horse. He certainly hasn't done it for as many years as the guys you mentioned above. But he's a guy with a high arm slot who leans to the left to make room for his arm.

Avery's major issue, IMO, was that his arm action went from decent to "Mark Redman" horrible in a hurry.

Valid, I'll take that. He was just the first "ear to the ground" delivery I could think of.

And I do like Kennedy, alot. He gets SC-alum comparisons to Prior and Anthony Reyes, and while he's not anywhere close to either of those cats in physical stature.. his mechanics, as I see them -- and I've seen him live a couple of times --, are far and away better.

Oswalt is certainly a horse and, as good as he is, I hope he continues to be and keeps chuckin' for a long time. I don't know if you've heard the story of him being on the brink of quitting in like A-ball, though. As the story goes he had chronic shoulder pain until his pickup broke down and, upon popping the hood, he received an electrical shock that somehow fixed him for life. Its one of those Vin Scully/Don Sutton middle-inning questionable tall tales that you might hear once a year. If that's true, I would therefore classify him as a "freak" ... but even if not, he tilts his head, hes tiny, and he throws 97, he's still a freak. He defies my pitching logic, I hate guys like that. But I love watching him throw.

I did a little googling to try to confirm anything on Avery, all I can say is ouch. I don't think I want to look anymore.

I realize everyone who has ever thrown a ball harder than 60 miles an hour uses their arm in such a way ... but "bullwhip" just sounds like soreness, microtears, and eventual major surgery to me.

This is a tough analogy to explain in writing - alot of this "stuff" is, hence the video.

And actually Clemens was the demo used when this was explained to me.

I'll put this out there as a visual:

http://www.bullwhip.org/faq/forward.mov

See how there is a "loop" in the whip before it is snapped forward? Lincecum's got more "loop" (arched back) in his upper body and the short of that (not going to go into major details here) is it gives him the potential to use his upper body more efficiently/effectively. At least that is what it looks like in this picture

I would imagine this element is what has allowed him to become the Pac-10 career leader in K's with his "plus fastball", and also what helps him draw the Oswalt comparisons. There are not many RHP listed at 5'11" 170# that are bringing it 97 mph

And while we are on the subject, B-Wagner is the other little guy who does this quite well (especially the finish)

ok this is NOT a double post...

I messed up the link above

This is the link to the visual:

Whip

my apologies, I swear I've used a computer before. Although, the one I am on now at work is killing me - I type and the words don't show up for about 10 seconds. unbelievable. Being awake at 4:30 doesn't help either

This stuff is fascinating. Thanks gentlemen. And do please continue. Particularly with the raving about the Yankees draft pick!

#24 - Atlanta Braves - OF John Johnson

This guy actually goes by "Cody". He's played eight games in the GCL, .308/.357/.423 with a double, triple, two walks, and 6 Ks in 28 PA. Everyone I have spoken to thought he was a reach and that he'd have been around a couple of rounds later.

-- MWE

Some updates:

Reynolds has made three starts for Modesto, with two good ones (5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K against Bakersfield; 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 K against Visalia) sandwiching a poor one (3 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K against Visalia). Visalia leads the Cal League in runs scored; Bakersfield is in the middle of the pack.

Lincoln got hammered in his first A-ball start, 7 ER in 4 2/3 IP with 7 H, five walks and 2 Ks. Sounds to me like he was overthrowing (not uncommon for the first time out).

Kiker has been struggling with his command at Spokane. He's pitched just 15 innings in seven games (six starts) and has walked 11 while fanning 14. He probably should be in the AZL.

Sinkbeil lasted six innings in his first A-ball start, and it was acceptable - 6 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 R.

Colton Willems threw three innings in his second GCL start, allowing a run. Only 2 Ks in 5 IP so far, though.

-- MWE

The two runs Sinkbeil gave up came on solo HRs. The first one (which came on the second pitch of the game) could have been caught, but the other one was crushed. I had him with 55 strikes and 26 balls. He kept his velocity throughout, consistently throwing 91 or above according to the ballpark radar. He topped out at 94. He had 11 groundball outs, 3 strikeouts, 3 infield pop-ups and 1 flyball out.

Thanks for the responses guys - I'll give form more informed thought than I have in the past. Do you have links/suggestions for videos that show how some players have changed their mechanics over time?

Wow. Just, wow. You don't have to be a "swing guru" to see this guy has a vicious hook-swing and therefore a massive hole on the inside half of the plate .. at least on what little is shown on the mlb.com video. Keep in mind this makes him susceptible to both inside corner heaters AND soft stuff away because he lacks extension on the outer half, all of which will get exposed at even the lowest levels of pro ball. However, you sound like you've seen more than any of us have to make an assumption like that. I'd also like to see extra video. The good news is he's left-handed and can get away with that, to a degree.

I forgot the <sarcasm> <sarcasm>
You honestly think I'd gurantee any 17 year old for the HOF?

Thanks for the Scherzer comments, CBW.

I was looking at Lincecum a little more today while doing nothing and I'd like to take back some of what I've previously said about him. While there's no doubt his head tilts and moves "off the line" to home plate, his body is amazingly well grounded. By that I mean, his center of gravity -- as he moves towards home plate and his hips rotate -- never faulters DESPITE that head being off center. Accomplishing that is pretty amazing in my opinion ... stand up in your office or living room and fake an imaginary throw with your left ear touching your left shoulder. Can you maintain any center of gravity? Can you even remain standing? Cheers to Timmy Lincecum.

homer -
Sorry, I don't think I was the only one you fooled. I've heard some pretty insane assumptions from Braves fans in the past, worded pretty similarly and randomly as your comment. My bad, though.

Do you have links/suggestions for videos that show how some players have changed their mechanics over time?

As far as I know there's just not much decent film of big league swings or pitching delieveries online. Espically from from consistant angels. I'm sure there are plenty of primates out there with personal collections of old games on tapes, personally video'd stuff, etc ... but putting stuff like that on the net takes alot of time and effort, even if you had the hardware and software to actually do it.

CBW or MG2? You guys got anything?

My source is myself. Started doing it a few years ago while I was playing in college and have continued as I continue to work with players of all levels. It takes time and effort and sometimes luck to get the angles to match. The other thing is that I want to know what kind of video (frame rates, etc.) I've got instead of trying to figure out how someone else handled the clip. Even if I happen to mess something up, I'll take on the resonsibility and know how the video was handled and hopefully how to fix it.

This stuff is fascinating. Thanks gentlemen. And do please continue. Particularly with the raving about the Yankees draft pick!

Hey no problem. If your mechanics look like Kennedy's, you're OK with me....



Kennedy and Bard at certain times during their deliveries

Check out arm action, especially Kennedy. Short, compact, elbowy, with the right elbow going towards first base.

At heel plant (2nd pic in sequences)... look at their flex positions, compare to Scherzer, for example.

At release, glove arms out front, especially Kennedy (Tom House would be proud). However, you can start seeing where Bard gets his extra oomph. He has that extra "extension" with his throwing arm and shoulder where he finishes his throw more violently than Kennedy. If you watch the frames in slow-mo it becomes more evident. MG2 explains that Billy Wagner is the ultimate example of this. Bard is a better example than Kennedy at this. Scherzer also finishes well, with this extra oomph at the end.

Oh and thanks for the stat updates on these guys, Mike and Elvis. Oh and Holla, no more Avery pics, yuck....LOL

Thanks again for your contributions to my enjoyment of the game! I appreciate your observations.

Thanks for the comment about Gabe Kapler in the review of Place. I'd never quite put my finger on why I so hated his swing. It drives me nuts that a guy that strong doesn't make better use of his strength. Another one is Varitek. God!!! Sometimes it looks like he's trying to find the dance school footprints in the batter's box and repeat his mantra about the process to himself as he swings. "Hands back, Stride forward, turn hips . . ." I'm a Sox fan and I've probably seen thousands of Varitek swings. The next natural looking one will be the first.

I saved a clip of Kapler's swing and all the files of the other hitters got scared and moved into another part of my hard drive

It's not pretty, but it got him to the big leagues. Who says you can't muscle the baseball?

MG2, I think it's about time you unveiled the beauty of Gabe Kapler's swing. Really, I told him today that he has the megaclip of all that is wrong. It is a pitch of one of the worst pitchers in terms of arm action, Mark Redman vs the truly horrible swing of Kapler. One for the ages....

This one is cool too....I'll try to find the link


I just love how his bat goes down to around knee height on his follow through as he hits a Wimbledon-worthy slice into the monster seats....

here's the link to Kapler's bomb, it didn't work in the link thingy above, so here's the full link...



void(playMedia2({w_id:'502477',w:'2006/open/tp/archive06/062306_phibos_kapler_hr_tp_350.wmv',pid: 'mlb_tp',gid: '2006/06/23/phimlb-bosmlb-1',mid: '200606231520360',cid: 'mlb',fid: 'mlb_tp350',v:'2'}))

I watched a BP in Oakland one time that was the truest example of how regardless of how pumped up you are, how hard you try, and how hard you swing you cant hit if you hook around the ball and swing down. Kapler was up there spinning holes into the ground, hitting shimps behind 1st and rollovers towards 3rd ... walk out of the bubble red-faced and drenched in sweat and go back to the screen and whack away on a "Ken Griffey" Tee (those 2 bars that decend at like a 45 degree angle to a tee). Meanwhile Juan Gone and Carl Everett were chuckin it up, stepping under the hood and taking half-assed, yet beautiful hacks at a nice upward, inside the ball angle and just hitting missles off of the gate in center. It was hilarious.

P.S. that URL thing you posted isn't coming anywhere close to working.

posting the Redman-Kapler clip could qualify as cruel and unusual punishment

hopefully a bad swing isn't taken too much as a negative, because think of it this way, the worse of a swing you have, the more skilled/athletic you have to be to make up for it

so lets just say Kapler is quite a skilled athlete

CBW -
you can't call me a fatty, call me out for double posting, and then drop a "link" like that

I must've eaten a healthy dose of Cheesy Poofs before that post...I'll try to link it some other way.

Mmmm....Cheesy Poofs.

My #1 pick finally made his debut....


Lincecum 1.0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0.00

He must've had a K with a wild pitch, b/c he ended up facing 4 batters.

He must've had a K with a wild pitch, b/c he ended up facing 4 batters.

That's exactly what happened. He then pitched a second game for Salem-Keizer, and went 3 innings, giving up 1 hit (and no walks) striking out 7.

He's now been promoted to the San Jose Giants, in high A. Due to make his first start at 5pm today. Interesting to see how things go.

#24 - Atlanta Braves - OF John Johnson

When I first reviewed him I thought he was a reach in the 1st round. After watching the video more closely, I think he’s a reach in the 10th round. Watching it today, his swing is just not good. He has a complete disconnect between his hands and body. Watching it with my swing guru buddy/cousin today, he expressed sheer disgust as we watched Johnson’s swing frame-by-frame. Most Sunday hackers slice because they come over the top of the ball by yanking the hands from the outside in, instead of turning your body quickly with the hands following until ready to unleash hell. My guess is Johnson, if he is a golfer, either has a severe slice or a pull-hook. I guess he has quick enough hands and is a good athlete, but, uh, not the right pick.

Grade: F


not a good start for Cody J Johnson

It's a bit late for this and I hate making requests, but what do you think of Eddie Degerman? (I don't have a video link handy...)

So you think a K rate of 50% is not a good sign for young Cody's future? Why might that be?

I'm on it.....

Eddie F. Degerman

WOW, I mean WOW. Ok, that's the Chad Bradford of high arm slots.

Before I go and look at his stats, this is what I'll say.... You know me, I like different. I saw some video of him (a quick feature on him on Rice TV) just now, about 5-7 pitches worth. His velocity seems to be oh, 87-89. HE can probably top at 92 or so would be my guess. Other than his arm slot and the deception that comes with that (it helps that he's 6-4), he is pretty standard up until foot plant. He does have a thing where he "bounces" on the rubber when he lifts his leg which makes him even quirkier. His tempo is pretty good. His arm action isn't as horrible as some make it. He has to make his arm get up there somehow. He says he has been throwing like this for years, so while I wouldn't teach it, familiarity with his own motion would ease my worries about control problems.
His fastball was straight, but from that slot, well... His deuce and change will be what makes or breaks him, and they look pretty good. I can see him having gopher ball issues.

That said, I would definitely take a chance on someone like this, maybe not early, but yeah, why not. He might not make it as a starter in the bigs, but why not pick up a guy like this to be a 7th-8th inning bridge guy.
My guess is that he's dominating the lower levels right now, let's go check....

Not bad at all

Not dominating like I thought he'd be, but so far, so good.

Lincecum at high-A: 3 starts (two against Bakersfield, one against Inland Empire, 12 1/3 IP, 18 K/5 BB, 2.92 ERA. He's allowed 7 hits, two of which have left the yard. I believe he's scheduled to start tonight at home against Stockton, which has a pretty good group of hitters (although many of their better ones have been promoted).

-- MWE

Just a heads up, I'm probably way too late but who cares: the Scherzer video that MLB.com had was from the game against Nebraska when he was still trying to throw through the tendonitis I guess it was. If I remember right he was fidgeting with his arm pretty much constantly the entire game till he had to be taken out and shelved for a few weeks--I think it was a problem and that has to have affected mechanics. It looked like he was practically throwing darts that day as evidenced by the 88-90 on the video. He's a guy that was pretty much always 93-96 touching 8's and 83-5 with the slider...great frame to go with it plus he pretty much went from no changeup to a plus in the matter of a year. If that wasn't the worst game for MLB to film then I don't know which one was.

I'd kind of like to see a Jason Neigborgall break down...i wonder if MLB.com has some HS footage of him to put against his current stuff. ill hhave to look

There were red light alerts and heads up warning around campus whenever Neighourgall was pitching :)

#6 - Detroit Tigers - P Andrew Miller

Stiff, stiff, stiff. OK, so it looks like he has good movement on his pitches, and he’s tall and lefthanded. Takes the ball out of the glove too early for my liking. Leads with his front shoulder, which I don’t like. Just glides into foot plant. Just doesn’t use his body well to throw. No oomph with his body/legs. Again, he’s tall and a lefty, but I don’t understand the mega-hype. I’ve watched his video a number of times and I still don’t get it. I just don’t see him keeping his velocity throughout his career, as his shoulder just takes a beating. I hope I’m wrong because I’d love to have a Bonderman/Verlander/Zumaya/Miller/Robertson rotation myself in a few years.

Grade: B

I'd like to go ahead and apologize to the Millers for this review. That said, I stand by what I said based on the video that I had initially. I just watched his debut today and he looked MUCH faster/aggressive toward the plate. I'm going to take a closer look at his video(s) as he gets more and more MLB appearances under his belt. Again, this was the inherent danger of basing my reviews on ONE video sample. That said, Lincecum is still my #1 pick.....

I thank Deep Blue (#93) for pointing out the Scherzer thing. Unfortunately for Mr. Scherzer, if I was a scout and had gotten to see him only the one time that the video itself shows, I would've given him the same marks as I did.

I totally agree with your assessment of Miller and am glad the Royals passed him up.

AG,

As impressive as Miller was today, I'd still take Lincecum, Hochevar, and probably Morrow ahead of him.

#9 - Baltimore Orioles - 3B William Rowell

His video doesn’t really show much. It looks like he has a powerful swing but it’s really hard to tell at full speed if he connects his trunk to his arms. Can’t tell.

Grade: Incomplete

Rowell received a $2.1 million signing bonus from the Orioles and was assigned to Bluefield.

Rowell's done well at Bluefield batting .329/.422/.507/.922 in 42 games. He also played SS and 3B there. He was just promoted to Aberdeen, where he's gone 5 for 12 with 2 doubles in his first 3 games.

Maybe the Orioles have another link in their 2011 championship team.

You know me, I like different.
Me too - I was hoping you'd enjoy it.

His velocity seems to be oh, 87-89. HE can probably top at 92 or so would be my guess.
Pretty much. IIRC, he averaged about 89 MPH and topped out at 92 when I last charted him (some CWS game - don't know how fast ESPN's guns are).

FWIW, I'd be a sub-crappy scout, but we are in 100% agreement on him.

***

Note on Miller: having seen him several times (I work in Chapel Hill), I was struck by the lateness of the movement on his pitches - don't know if that is upheld by video or not. Regardless, he was a groundball machine - teams consistently swung under his stuff.