BBTF's Notes in a Minor Key Discussion

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1. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 09, 2009 at 06:41 PM (#3408189)

The roster shuffling thread had some talk/links already.

2. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 09, 2009 at 06:44 PM (#3408195)

Also, BA adds a few more names to the buzz.

3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 09, 2009 at 06:52 PM (#3408208)

OF Corey Wimbley
C Nevin Ashley
RHP Neil Wagner
RHP Steven Wright
RHP Craig Baker
RHP Chris Hayes
LHP Ben Snyder

Seem to be the most useful IMO. LHP Chuck Lofgren is probably worth a gamble. And C Koby Clemens is awfully intriguing.

4. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: December 09, 2009 at 08:03 PM (#3408333)

For a team that prides itself on finding free talent and what have you, the A's seem to screw this up EVERY year.

5. JJ1986 Posted: December 09, 2009 at 08:12 PM (#3408353)

The Indians look like they're going to get raided. That's a side effect of trading all your players for prospects.

6. Chase Insteadman Wannabe Posted: December 09, 2009 at 09:35 PM (#3408464)

Baseball America seems to really like Arquimedes Caminero. I like the idea of taking flamethrowing pitchers like Caminero in the Rule 5 due to a (possibly irrational) belief that a raw pitcher pumping mid 90s fastballs out of the pen is more likely to catch fire and not only stick with the team, but possibly even be a positive contributer.

7. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 09, 2009 at 09:49 PM (#3408489)

I think that makes sense as well, csc - despite my bias for relatively low risk/reward guys (like Yohan Pino, let's say).

As for Cleveland, they might not get hit that hard - it's often a surprise who gets picked.

To repeat earlier posted thoughts... some guys who I either like or I think are likely picks that AG#1F didn't list include (not in order):
C/MI Chirinos (Ashley is bad, AFL or no AFL), OF Raynor (not keen on McBryde, regardless of buzz), P Caminero, P A.Rodriguez (seems very likely to me, I like him as well), P Breit, P Inman (probably not enough velocity times polish), P E.Osuna, P Jukich (those two could loogy/long man, Lofgren could as well), P Pino (ready for a low wattage role, could spot start), C Clevenger (won't get picked, he's just interesting), and maybe Kroenke on the repeat pick theory (should he clear waivers, you might get him back as an FA).

There's likely some Everth (in low-A, but eligible) type out there as well who us in our mama's basements aren't yet aware of. Personally, I don't like Wimberly (who doesn't fit that billing) - error prone + not enough bat. Seems like Freddie Bynum II.

8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 01:39 AM (#3408703)

Word is the Yanks (who will acquire the first pick in the Rule 5 from the Nats for Bruney) will take Caminero if they can't re-trade the pick to someone else.

9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 03:28 AM (#3408756)

Jonathan Mayo with a few more names

Chad Thall seems interesting as a possible LOOGY. Jean Machi's winter performance is somewhat impressive.

10. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 03:41 AM (#3408764)

Chuck Lofgren would interest me.

11. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: December 10, 2009 at 03:58 AM (#3408769)

Of those on Mayo's list not previously mentioned, I like Ambriz - I'd forgotten about him.

12. Hombre Brotani

Posted: December 10, 2009 at 04:03 AM (#3408771)

Someone explain to me why the Nationals would rather have Brian Bruney than the first pick of the draft?

13. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: December 10, 2009 at 04:07 AM (#3408772)

Maybe they don't like who's out there? You often see a clear #1 guy I don't see one this time (though I do see people who are interesting enough to contemplate picking). Bruney's decent - if they weren't going to pick or would have sold the selection then that's a decent flip.

14. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: December 10, 2009 at 04:08 AM (#3408773)

note: being the clear #1 guy doesn't mean you'll actually be any good, of course. ask brian barton...

15. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: December 10, 2009 at 04:38 AM (#3408785)

From mlbtraderumors (Mayo & Ed Price):
The Yankees might have the Nats take one of their own players, Zach Kroenke, to make sure no one else does. Ed Price of AOL FanHouse agrees: there's a chance the Yankees will have the Nats select Kroenke.
Does anyone else think this would be stupid? This means the Yankees either have to keep him on their roster all season (copious DL time allowed, however) or let everyone else have a crack at him through waivers anyway. If they thought he was ready for that role - or even a limited version of it - they should have protected him in the first place (unless their evaluation of him skyrocketed since the roster deadline).

16. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: December 10, 2009 at 08:39 AM (#3408859)

BA again. Refutes Kroenke rumor (though adds that they might want a potential loogy like Snyder or Jukich), named drops expected tabs Raynor (some sites have suggested he might go #1) and Caminero (maybe to Fla as part of the Lindstrom deal = this seems more believable), as well as Aneury Rodriguez for the first time (blogs have been all over that idea), and ATL RHP Tim Gustafson (I'm not a fan).

17. Snowboy Posted: December 10, 2009 at 10:57 AM (#3408864)

BA didn't mention/list anybody who already has a full roster. Maybe they will tmr, in 2008 there were five teams.

Has there been any hitter in the last ten years in the Rule5 who was decent? In the last five years, has there even been one who stuck? It seems like a "fishing for pitching" affair these days.

Oh wait...Dan Uggla qualifies for both...anyone else in either?

18. jyjjy Posted: December 10, 2009 at 11:31 AM (#3408865)

From mlbtraderumors (Mayo & Ed Price):
The Yankees might have the Nats take one of their own players, Zach Kroenke, to make sure no one else does. Ed Price of AOL FanHouse agrees: there's a chance the Yankees will have the Nats select Kroenke.
Does anyone else think this would be stupid?

The only way I can think of that this makes any sense is if the rules allow for the following;
Nats select Kroenke
Nats then remove him from their active roster
Kroenke is "returned" to the Nats from the Nats... BUT he is not on the 40 man now.
Nats trade him to NY
This way NY can acquire him but not have to have him on their 40 man or worry about him being selected in the rule 5 draft.

19. MM1f Posted: December 10, 2009 at 11:53 AM (#3408866)

Has there been any hitter in the last ten years in the Rule5 who was decent? In the last five years, has there even been one who stuck? It seems like a "fishing for pitching" affair these days.

Everth Cabrera stuck with the Pads last year and looks to have some potential. Eugenio Velez stuck a couple years ago and is an interesting utility guy. Both were athletic IFs from A-ball.
Going back about ten years Jay Gibbons was productive Rule 5 pick. Jesus Flores is a young catcher with some promise. Chris Shelton was a famous Rule 5er, Jose Bautista was taken from the Pirates in that same talked about Rule 5 draft but he was bounced around so much I can't recall if he officially stuck. The Cardinals got a couple decent utility years from Hector Luna and, say what you will about the guy, Willy Taveras was a great Rule 5 value. The Astros just gushed about him from the minute they picked him. However, he didn't technically stick. The Astros gave the Indians a bone for the right to keep Taveras

Shane Victorino was a 2-time Rule 5 pick, though I can't remember if he stuck.
Josh Hamilton became a Red (from the Rays) as a Rule 5 pick, though obviously he is a rare case.
Uggla, Victorino or Hamilton are probably the best recent rule 5 hitters. The rest are mostly bench players.

But yes, arms are generally the focus

20. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 01:32 PM (#3408912)

Brian Barton also stuck, and was decent.

I'm surprised that Villareal isn't getting more attention.

21. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 10, 2009 at 01:36 PM (#3408918)

[18] I think the rules would allow that, sort of. Teams cannot simply remove a Rule 5 pick from the 40-man. Kroenke would have to clear waivers and then be offered back to the Yankees. Any team claiming Kroenke would have to keep him on their active roster. IOW, from the Yankees POV, it would be exactly the same as exposing him to the Rule 5 draft in the first place.

22. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 01:56 PM (#3408926)

21 - Exactly, only at a marginally different point in time.

Barton was decent that first partial year, but fell apart.
I think Victorino stuck the 2nd time.
Shelton had moments.

As for full rosters, that can change by draft time (KC this year will be an example, iirc).

23. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:03 PM (#3408936)

john manuel ba tweet: raynor (may) go to nyy 1st overall.

24. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:04 PM (#3408937)

ny post, conversely, says jamie hoffman (of from lad) to go #1

25. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:09 PM (#3408943)

What time is it?

26. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:11 PM (#3408945)

should have started a few minutes ago - i have no access to the feed (see mlb or milb.com)

27. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:15 PM (#3408947)

NYY - of Hoffman
PIT - of Raynor
BAL - p Ben Snyder (to TEX)
KCR - p Ed Osuna (from the Braves, I'm shocked too....)
CLE - p Ambriz
HOU - 3b Jorge Jimenez (from BOS, eh) (to FLA)

28. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:16 PM (#3408950)

NYM - p Carlos Monasterios (prospect once upon a time when w/ NYY; still young, but less interesting)
OAK - p Bobby Cassevah (gets grounders, but performance to date so-so)
ARI - p Zach Kroenke

29. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:18 PM (#3408952)

CUB - p Mike Parisi (St. Louis potentially losing him doesn't surprise them, I think)
MIL - p Chuck Lofgren (lacks dominant pitch, but interesting and coming back from Blass disease)
TOR - p Zach Zinicola (eh)

... thanks to mlbtraderumors, by the way, for the info to date ...

30. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:20 PM (#3408955)

SEA - Kanekoa Texeira (decent pick, though there are several I prefer)

31. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:23 PM (#3408959)

STL - p Ben Jukich (can start or relief, solid cb, lacks velocity, probable loogy)
PHI - p Ken Herndon (don't know anything about him)
(oh, Texeira is also a pitcher)

32. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:26 PM (#3408962)

Baseball America seems to really like Arquimedes Caminero. I like the idea of taking flamethrowing pitchers like Caminero in the Rule 5 due to a (possibly irrational) belief that a raw pitcher pumping mid 90s fastballs out of the pen is more likely to catch fire and not only stick with the team, but possibly even be a positive contributer.

You know, the only reason Caminero can throw heat like that is the giant parabolic mirrors.

33. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:27 PM (#3408963)

SFG - p Steve Johnson (young, a legacy, but hasn't developed the velocity that was hoped for out of hs - pitchability righty)

Hoffman is a 4th outfielder type (defense is AFA/A in DMB parlance). Does a little bit of everything, but lacks a standout skill.

34. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:28 PM (#3408965)

I'm surprised no one has taken Caminero, now that you mention it (granted, he's yet to have success in full-season ball, but as a flyer...)

35. Chase Insteadman Wannabe Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:32 PM (#3408967)

You know, the only reason Caminero can throw heat like that is the giant parabolic mirrors.

I thought that the Mythbusters did tests that indicated the parabolic mirrors could only get a fastball into the uper 80's...

According to Baseball America it's all over. No one took Caminero.

36. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:32 PM (#3408969)

TBY - p Armando Zerpa (from BOS, lefty who doesn't do much for me)

**** that's it for round 1 ... no one taken in round 2 .... minor league phases to follow ****
(note - pick listing not necessarily in order, sorry)

37. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:34 PM (#3408971)

in unrelated news - boof to boston, kc cuts jacobs and bale, tor may have signed gatright.

38. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:36 PM (#3408972)

Thanks for listing picks, DK. My work firewall won't let me get the audio feed.

39. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:37 PM (#3408974)

Jim's twitter feed mentions that Beau Vaughan went to Oakland in the AAA phase - that's a good pickup - he could help a big league pen.

40. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:37 PM (#3408975)

Mine either. :) Glad to help...

41. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama

Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:40 PM (#3408981)

Shane Victorino was a 2-time Rule 5 pick, though I can't remember if he stuck.

Actually the Phils offered him back (SD or LA, I can't remember the order) and were allowed to keep him. Vic put up an IL MVP year prior to sticking with the Phils.

NYM - p Carlos Monasterios (prospect once upon a time when w/ NYY; still young, but less interesting)
3 out of 4 Abreu pieces are now gone from the Phils. Sanchez the C turned P is the only one left.

42. RJ in TO Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:40 PM (#3408982)

tor may have signed gatright.

Is this a sign that Vernon is on his way out of town?

43. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:42 PM (#3408985)

"kc cuts jacobs"

Surprised Moore was willing to take the hit to his pride.

44. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:43 PM (#3408988)

"Jim's twitter feed mentions that Beau Vaughan went to Oakland in the AAA phase - that's a good pickup - he could help a big league pen."

Agreed. I thought he might go in the ML portion, even.

45. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:47 PM (#3408990)

ba sez the mets got john lujan ... he impressed me @ nmjc as a possible roogy, but - who knows at this point?

46. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:51 PM (#3408992)

besides caminero, i'm surprised craig baker (linked to pit) and aneury rodriguez didn't get picked.

47. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:51 PM (#3408993)

And once again, many of the names discussed before the draft don't get taken, while many guys not discussed are snapped up.

48. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:52 PM (#3408995)

minor league deals should start coming hot and heavy, by the way, now that rule 5 isn't a consideration (josh wilson just signed w/ seattle, for example).

49. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:55 PM (#3408998)

Offhand, I'm actually less surprised this year than most. Only three surprising non-selections (for me, anyway) and not too many shocks picked. Hoffman should have been on my radar, in retrospect.

50. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 02:58 PM (#3409000)

Zerpa to Dodgers for $. Other trades likely, given that this is Rule 5.

51. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 03:01 PM (#3409004)

I suspect Gathright will take the Buck Coats role, more or less, if he does in fact sign.
Jacobs: Even Moore has his limits.

milb has the major league phase up - same link will include subsequent phases.

52. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 03:30 PM (#3409036)

BA has major league list up as well, with short descriptions of each player.

53. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 03:36 PM (#3409044)

Odd the Padres passed. They should probably be having open tryouts. I guess the cost of a waiver claim is to rich for their blood?

54. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 04:01 PM (#3409066)

That is weird. I'd guess they have designs on their open roster spot(s), but should the non-tender deadline help there?

****
No one jumped out at me like Vaughan in the minor league phases. A few decent minor league filler guys (Hubbard and Horwitz, though you could slot Vaughan into that category), a few raw arms (need to look up Engles when I get home), several from the DSL.

55. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 04:03 PM (#3409067)

I did see somewhere online where a dude was proclaiming OF James Tomlin to be this great R5 commodity, which struck me as a bit crazy. Well, he did go - in the AAA phase.

56. esseff Posted: December 10, 2009 at 04:10 PM (#3409072)

Because the Cardinals waived/outrighted Parisi in 2008, my understanding of the rules is that if he doesn't make the Cubs, and subsequently clears waivers, he can become a free agent rather than going back to the Cardinals. Have I got that right?

57. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 04:12 PM (#3409075)

Yes. Hoffmann as well.

58. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 10, 2009 at 04:29 PM (#3409094)

Monasterios also went to LA.

-- MWE

59. Mark S is still on target Posted: December 10, 2009 at 04:37 PM (#3409100)

Mets trade Monasterios to LA for cash.

60. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 10, 2009 at 04:44 PM (#3409109)

Hoffmann can play CF in a pinch, and he makes pretty solid contact. He could be a useful player, actually, as a caddy for Granderson against LHP. Jorge Jimenez could also help Florida.

If Raynor sticks, it will likely be as a 5th OF and caddy for McCutchen; he's basically a lesser version of Cameron Maybin, with most of the same strengths and issues. I don't see him as being likely to stick.

I don't see anyone in particular among the pitchers selected in the major league portion who really stands out.

-- MWE

61. Spahn Insane Posted: December 10, 2009 at 04:51 PM (#3409114)

I can only wait in eager anticipation to see who this year's David Patton will be. Don't let me down, Hendry.

62. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 05:01 PM (#3409126)

"Because the Cardinals waived/outrighted Parisi in 2008, my understanding of the rules is that if he doesn't make the Cubs, and subsequently clears waivers, he can become a free agent rather than going back to the Cardinals. Have I got that right?"

Yep, you can decline an outright assignment the second time you're given one, and the process of returning a Rule 5 pick to his original org includes an outright assignment.

They might be able to keep him by immediately assigning him to the ML roster. I've never seen that tried (and you'd think he'd be willing to stick around if they were going to immediately promote him, anyway).

63. Danny Posted: December 10, 2009 at 05:11 PM (#3409143)

A's released Santiago Casilla to make room for Cassevah.

64. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 05:52 PM (#3409198)

I'm not keen on Raynor or Hoffmann in center, which obviously makes a big difference here. If Raynor's struggles last season were because of his hand (not sure how true that is), he's probably worth keeping anyway.
Mike, you think Jimenez could help? Arm aside, I don't like the glove and he lacks the power to make up for it.

65. The Original SJ Posted: December 10, 2009 at 06:06 PM (#3409214)

What can Hoffman do that Ryan Church can't?

66. JJ1986 Posted: December 10, 2009 at 06:13 PM (#3409220)

What can Hoffman do that Ryan Church can't?

Hit right-handed. That's it.

67. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 06:17 PM (#3409229)

Hoffmann, as I understand it, is a really good clubhouse guy. (Could be way off, obviously.)

68. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 06:28 PM (#3409241)

<i>A's released Santiago Casilla to make room for Cassevah.</a>

Does this make room for Jairo Garcia in the pen?

69. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 07:16 PM (#3409313)

How do you guys feel Lofgren compares to the other lefties taken?

70. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 10, 2009 at 07:56 PM (#3409357)

My heart likes him, my brain, not so much. Has a bunch of average pitches, used to be consdered a really good prospect because he was projectable and putting up good numbers, but the improvements in his pitches never really came. Struggled w/ off-the-field issues (his mom's health was one, iirc) and developed Blass disease for a bit, but is coming out of it. Was available through this process last year as well. More of a fifth starter (which he's not really ready for yet) type than a LOOGY, but you can stick him in the back of the pen and be okay, I think.
Compared to the other lefties... he's as good as any this year, I think - there's more separation in types then in skills b/w these guys (imo). Osuna has a little more tactical/LOOGY value and could also eventually start, but his lack of velocity could do him in before then. Jukich a higher present value, lower ceiling-ed Osuna (not sure about his true platoon advantage either). Kroenke and Snyder are more MLB ready but won't ever start and I don't think either will ever be more than a decent specialist. Lofgren... if he gets 15% better at everything, you've got something. Of course, that's unlikely and what he is now isn't much more than a mop-up guy ... it's all a matter of how he develops. Not so unique, I know.

71. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 08:07 PM (#3409366)

Predictions on most likely to stick? I'll say Raynor, Hoffman, and Snyder.

72. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 08:07 PM (#3409367)

And Kroenke.

73. Honkie Kong Posted: December 10, 2009 at 08:22 PM (#3409390)

Osuna too. Pitchability lefty with good minor league numbers. Should be able to fake it as a swingman.

74. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 10, 2009 at 10:17 PM (#3409526)

Mike, you think Jimenez could help? Arm aside, I don't like the glove and he lacks the power to make up for it.

The Marlins have nothing from the left side other than Coghlan (I'm not a great big Scott Cousins fan), Jimenez has hit everywhere he's played, and he showed some additional power last year. I don't think the glove's all THAT awful; he has generally turned more DPs than his error count at 3B, albeit not by a lot - that's generally a sign of a glove that is at least passable. I don't think he's going to be anything great, but as an occasional corner IF starter and lefty PH he can contribute more than one might expect from a Rule 5 player. Barring any additional moves by the Marlins, I see him as the most likely Rule 5 player to stick this year.

-- MWE

75. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: December 11, 2009 at 02:00 AM (#3409663)

1. I didn't know anyone else used the 1:1 dp:e 3b threshold shorthand; cool.
2. My issue is the range more than his hands / errant arm - there's a reason he's played a quite a bit of 1b despite having a gun. (Silver lining, of course, is that it makes him more ready for a bench job, already playing both corners). AROM has him at -12 for next year defensively - that sounds about right, based on what I'd read about him in the past. You may be right - he seems like a guy Florida would like and the opportunity is there - however, I can easily imagine better, also cheap (though not younger), options becoming available...

76. RollingWave Posted: December 11, 2009 at 02:45 AM (#3409684)

What can Hoffman do that Ryan Church can't?

Play a really good game of Hockey.

77. Tripon Posted: December 11, 2009 at 03:05 AM (#3409690)

Hoffmann can be 3 years of cheap labor.

78. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 11, 2009 at 06:23 AM (#3409778)

Thanks for the thoughtful answer, Der Komminsk-sar.

79. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 11, 2009 at 03:56 PM (#3410015)

Sure - nice psychic powers on the brewerfan board, btw.

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