How San Diego Padres’ A.J. Preller, other MLB GMs decide when to go for it [INSIDER]

Eric Longenhagen and I created a grid with this traditional/progressive spectrum on the X axis in our book “Future Value” and, at first, we thought it would be hard to pin down. After consulting with people in the game, nobody quibbled more than a notch or two (on a eight-point scale) despite the subjective nature of the grades. The people who work in front offices know what information is driving decisions and which staffers have the most pull with management, so it’s not hard to then figure out which clubs are using what sort of information in making those decisions, while it’s almost impossible to prove it objectively by just looking at the transactions log.

I use that on the X axis for this exercise as well, while the Y axis represents risk tolerance. The risk-tolerance values also are subjective and apply across a number of departments. This becomes useful when a club is rebuilding, doesn’t have veterans to trade and isn’t active in free agency. In that case, the types of players a club targets in its small amount of trades or free-agent signings can inform a risk-tolerance grade, while the way it uses its capital in the draft and international markets largely defines its risk tolerance.

Sub required, but I thought Kiley’s matrix was interesting.

I like to collect my thoughts about various trends within the game annually into a state of the industry of sorts.

This year's is 4,000+ words and was sparked by the trade deadline.

Scouting vs. stats is dead. Seeking risk is how GMs separate themselves. https://t.co/0FD6iRAlDA pic.twitter.com/WF9r0902pt

— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) September 16, 2020