AP Exclusive _ Bryant ruling: Cubs did nothing ‘nefarious’

Arbitrator Mark Irvings accepted Theo Epstein’s rationale for delaying Kris Bryant’s debut at the start of the 2015 season, concluding there was no proof of “a nefarious motive” by the Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations to delay the third baseman’s eligibility for free agency.

In a 42-page decision obtained by The Associated Press, Irvings accepted Epstein’s explanation that injuries to Mike Olt and Tommy La Stella prompted the timing of Bryant’s call-up to the Cubs in April 2015. Had Bryant been brought up one day earlier, he would have been eligible for free agency after the 2020 season. Instead, he will be eligible after the 2021 season.

“The association could not satisfy its burden of proving that the Cubs’ assignments of Bryant were done in bad faith to mask service time manipulation,” Irvings wrote. “Given this finding, there is no need to resolve, and this decision does not address, the global issue of whether clubs have the right to manage service time to delay a player’s achievement of the service benchmarks for salary arbitration and free agent eligibility.”

Hearings were held last Oct. 21-23, with a final day on Nov. 6. Irvings issued his decision to the parties on Feb. 4, but it was not made public.

Site lawyers, what say you about this logic?

Teams close with 7-5 edge in arbitration as Diamondbacks’ Archie Bradley wins final case

PHOENIX—Arizona Diamondbacks reliever Archie Bradley won the final salary arbitration case of the year, leaving teams with a 7-5 advantage over players.

Bradley, a 27-year right-hander, was given a raise from $1.83 million to $4.1 million Friday by arbitrators Andrew Strongin, Steven Wolf and Jules Bloch. The Diamondbacks had argued for $3,625,000.

Bradley was 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA in 65 relief appearances and one start last year. He struck out 87 and walked 36 in 71⅔ innings.

Teams won six of the first seven decisions, and players won four of the last five. Teams have had a winning record in four of the past five years, the exception a 12-10 margin for players in 2019.

Well, arbitration season has ended for this year- see you all again this time next year?

J.T. Realmuto loses his arbitration case

Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto lost his arbitration case against the Phillies today. That means he’ll get a $10 million salary in 2020. He had filed asking for $12.4 million.

That was Realmuto’s last time through the arbitration process, as he’s set to become a free agent after this season. There were reports back in November, however, about he and the Phillies discussing a long-term contract extension.

Wonder what the state of these negotiations is now…..

Jesus Aguilar, Brian Goodwin, Aledmys Diaz Win Arbitration Hearings

Today in arbitration news:

Marlins first baseman Jesus Aguilar, Angels outfielder Brian Goodwin and Astros utility player Aledmys Diaz have all won arbitration hearings against their respective teams, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). Aguilar will now earn $2.575MM in his first season with Miami, rather than the $2.325MM at which the club filed. Goodwin will be paid $2.2MM instead of the Angels’ $1.85MM submission. Diaz, meanwhile, will take home a $2.6MM salary instead of the flat $2MM filed by the Astros. Aguilar and Goodwin are repped by the MVP Sports Group, while Diaz is a client of Excel Sports.

Miami claimed the 29-year-old Aguilar off waivers from their fellow Floridians up in St. Petersburg, as the Rays weren’t keen on paying the slugger’s arb salary after picking him up in a July deal with the Brewers. Aguilar was an All-Star in 2018 when he broke out with a .274/.352/.539 slash and 35 home runs, but his offensive output scaled way back in ’19. He was hitting just .225/.320/.374 at the time the Brewers swapped him for righty Jake Faria, and while he improved a bit with Tampa Bay, his overall production this past season was nowhere near his 2017-18 levels.

That said, the Marlins clearly feels there’s significant rebound potential with Aguilar. He’s currently lined up to be the organization’s primary first baseman, and a return to form would make him a steal of a waiver claim. Aguilar is controlled through the 2022 season via arbitration, so he could be a multi-year piece in Miami if he rights the ship.

Josh Hader loses salary arbitration hearing

The Brewers defeated ace reliever Josh Hader in their salary arbitration hearing, according to multiple reports (including MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand). Hader will make $4.1 million instead of the $6.4 million figure he filed at. The case appears to continue the precedent that saves are what are heavily valued for relievers in salary arbitration.

That, of course, is heavily outdated thinking. Hader has been one of the most valuable relief pitchers in the game since he first stepped foot in the big leagues. Milwaukee deployed him as a sort of tactical nuke for his first two seasons, throwing him into high-leverage situations regardless of when they arose. He assumed regular closing duties in 2019 and racked up 37 saves, a second consecutive All-Star appearance, and a second NL Reliever of the Year award.

Alternatively, it could be an admission as for just how interchangable relief pitchers are in practical terms.

Greene, Braves argue first salary arbitration case this year

PHOENIX (AP) — Atlanta reliever Shane Greene became the first player to go to salary arbitration this year, asking a three-man panel for a raise from $4 million to $6.75 million as the Braves argued for $6.25 million.

Arbitrators Gary Kendellen, Brian Keller and Allen Ponak heard the case Tuesday.

A 31-year-old right-hander, Greene was a first-time All-Star last year. He had a 2.30 ERA in 65 relief appearances with 64 strikeouts and 17 walks in 62 2/3 innings for Detroit and Atlanta, which acquired him at the July 31 trade deadline. He had a 4.01 ERA in 27 games for the Braves and allowed a tying eighth-inning single to Yadier Molina in Game 4 of the NL Division Series against St. Louis, who rallied to win in 10 innings. The Cardinals won Game 5, then were swept by Washington in the NL Championship Series.

As the groundhog pops out of its hole and the swallows try to return to Capistrano, the arbiters also make their annual appearance.

J.T. Realmuto carries the ball for all catchers in groundbreaking arbitration case

Any way you slice it, Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto is headed for a historic contract in 2020.

Realmuto and the Phillies began the salary arbitration process with an exchange of proposals on Friday.

The Phillies filed at $10 million.

Realmuto’s camp came in at $12.4 million.

A consideration of catcher value across the board- purely financial here, but something of broader interest given the complexities of assessing them.

Tim Lincecum once flaunted his Cy Young Awards to win arbitration case

Friday was an important day for many of Major League Baseball’s top stars. The deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures passed at 1 p.m. ET.

Some of those stars, such as Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, avoided arbitration by agreeing to massive one-year deals. Others, like George Springer, failed to settle. That means he could end up having his case decided by a judge next month.

Once upon a time, that was the scenario Tim Lincecum faced after failing to reach an agreement with the San Francisco Giants. As former teammate Kevin Frandsen revealed in an interview with MLB Network Radio on Saturday, Lincecum planned a spectacular pitch that forced the Giants to fold before any words needed to be said.

According to Frandsen, Lincecum “Walked into the courtroom with both Cy Young Awards, they never even started talking — it was signed, sealed and delivered right there. I think it was a two-year deal, right there.”

For those wondering how award voting can have a broader significance…..

George Nicolau dies at 94, arbitrator in MLB collusion cases

NEW YORK (AP) — George Nicolau, who ruled against baseball owners in two collusion cases and served as president of the National Academy of Arbitrators, has died. He was 94.

Nicolau died Jan. 2 at Lenox Hill Hospital, Gene Orza, the former chief operating officer of the Major League Baseball Players Association, said Friday.

Nicolau took over as the independent chairman of Major League Baseball’s arbitration panel in 1986 after owners fired Thomas Roberts, who ruled teams acted in concert against free agents after the 1985 season. Nicolau decided teams acted in concert against free agents after the 1986 and 1987 seasons. The cases were settled in 1990 when management agreed with the players’ union to pay those players affected $280 million.

In another notable decision, Nicolau decided in 1987 to cut short a season-long suspension of free agent pitcher LaMarr Hoyt to 60 days. Hoyt had been penalized for his involvement in three illegal drug incidents during 1986.

Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge are both getting 1000% raises for next year

Friday marked another key date on the Major League Baseball offseason calendar. It’s the final day in which players and teams can exchange figures in their on-going arbitration negotiations.

It’s not a hard deadline for an agreement to be reached, but for a lot of players it means the first truly big payday of their baseball careers. Among those players this year are sluggers Cody Bellinger of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees.

The respective 2017 Rookie of the Year winners were arbitration eligible for the first time this winter, and both ended up receiving a raise of over 1000% from their 2019 salaries.

In Bellinger’s case, he agreed to a $11.5 million salary, which breaks the record for a first-time eligible player.

For those curious about how the arbitration process is working this off-season…..

MLB will stop awarding prize belt to team that best suppresses salaries in arbitration

Earlier this year, Marc Carig of The Athletic published a report on a belt, awarded as a prize at the GM meetings every year to the team that did the most to “achieve the goals set by the industry.” That’s code for salary suppression in arbitration.

MLBPA executive director Tony Clark responded to the report, saying, “That clubs make sport of trying to suppress salaries in a process designed to produce fair settlements shows a blatant lack of respect for our Players, the game, and the arbitration process itself.”

Does this mean that dozens of authorities will be issuing belts, making it impossible to determine a clear champion?

Super Two eligibility set at earliest point in a decade

MLB Trade Rumors reports that the Super Two cutoff has been set at two years and 115 days of service time. It’s the lowest the threshold has been set in a decade.

Super Two eligibility is a salary arbitration concept. All players who have zero to two years of service time are not arbitration eligible and thus have their salaries unilaterally set by their teams. All players with three years or more of service time — but who have not yet reached the six years required to become unrestricted free agents — are eligible for arbitration. By having one’s salary set via arbitration, their past performance is taken into account and they can begin to make some real money.

A small handful of players who have more than two years but less than three years of service time are considered Super Two players, and they are included with the 3+ players and get to go through arbitration. They go through up to four times instead of the typical three. That small handful of Super Two players consists of the guys who finished the previous year in the top 22 percent of service time among players with two to three years of service time. Depending on when that top 22 percent was initially called up, the exact level of service time to reach Super Two eligibility floats. Sometimes by as much as a couple of weeks one way or the other.

Look, up in the sky!

It’s a bird!

It’s a plane!

It’s Super Two!

This Year’s Super Two Cutoff Is Abnormally Low

This year’s cutoff point to determine Super Two status will be unusually low, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (via Twitter). While an exact cutoff point is yet unclear, McCalvy reports that Josh Hader, who has two years and 115 days of MLB service time (abbreviated as 2.115) will be eligible for arbitration this winter. In essence, that means that Hader is about to become a very well-compensated reliever. That would’ve been the case in the 2020-21 offseason anyway, but he’ll now tap into that earning power a year early. It’s also worth noting that this cutoff point will place Miami’s JT Riddle, who finished the season at 2.118 years of service, into arbitration eligibility as well.

A 2.115 cutoff would already be the lowest Super Two threshold in the past decade. The previous lowpoints in that span came in 2010 and 2013, when the cutoff was 2.122. Last year, it settled at 2.134. If the threshold is any lower this season, others could also be impacted. Arizona’s Luke Weaver (2.112) and Oakland’s Matt Chapman (2.109) are the most notable names within reasonable distance of Hader’s 2.115.

MLB Trade Rumors: Projected 2020 Arbitration Salaries

Red Sox (12)
Jackie Bradley Jr. – $11MM
.  .  .
Mookie Betts – $27.7MM
———————————-
Yankees (12)
James Paxton – $12.9MM
.  .  .
Gary Sanchez – $5.6MM
Aaron Judge – $6.4MM

I think that’s low for Aaron Judge. I suspect the formula dings Judge more for his injury time than the actual process will, and fails to consider his enormous popularity. Betts may be a bit low, too. I’ve seen $30M estimates elsewhere.