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Bo Bichette Newsbeat

Monday, January 17, 2022

If the Blue Jays truly believe in the dynamic duo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, now is the time to get the deals done

Guerrero is now four seasons away from free agency — just as Tatis was when he signed last spring — but because he qualified as a Super 2 player, he will go through arbitration four times, while the Padres shortstop would have only gone through three. As a result, Guerrero is positioned to out-earn Tatis through their third through sixth service-time seasons. With a projected salary of $8 million in 2022, he’d very conservatively platform to $12 million, $16 million and $20 million over the next three years for an estimated total of $56 million — roughly double the $27 million Tatis is slated to earn over the same span.

Given those numbers, the question then becomes how to value the free-agent years portion of an extension, which Tatis locked in at an average of $31.3 million over 10 years. The most recent relevant comparable is the $130-million, five-year extension Paul Goldschmidt signed with the St. Louis Cardinals in March 2019 covering his age 32 through 36 seasons. That’s an average of $26 million a season, less than the $31 million Miguel Cabrera is averaging on the $248 million, eight-year deal covering his ages 33-40, but more than Albert Pujols’ $24 million per covering ages 32-41 ($240-million, 10-year deal) or Joey Votto’s $22.5 million per covering ages 30-39 ($225-million, 10-year deal).

A key differentiation is that Guerrero will be offering his prime years, 27 to 31. Assuming his continued growth, they will be immensely valuable, which suggests he should be at the higher end of those averages, especially since some of those comps are now years old. The value in buying more peak than decline is why the Padres were willing to pay up for Tatis and Manny Machado, whom they landed for $300 million over 10 years as a free agent.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 17, 2022 at 03:15 PM | 17 comment(s)
  Beats: blue jays, bo bichette, vladimir guerrero jr.

 

 

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