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Draft Newsbeat

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

New Top 200 Draft Prospects list: Execs rank the first five

Top 10:
1. Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
2. Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
3. Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida
4. Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick (N.C.) HS
5. Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Ind.) HS
6. Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
7. Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon
8. Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
9. Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest (Fla.) HS
10. Kyle Teel, C, Virginia
Complete list »

But it was far from universal. Skenes did receive seven first-place votes. Much like with his teammate, evaluators talked about how Skenes has the chance to be an impact player, and in a hurry.

“Skenes’ stuff can play immediately,” an AL scouting director said.

“It’s a generational college pitcher in Skenes,” an NL national crosschecker said. “Crews’ performance and tools [put him second].”

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 30, 2023 at 10:12 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: draft

Wednesday, February 08, 2023

How MLB Orgs are quantifying deception in their draft models

“Batters react to what they think the pitch will do.” I’ll reiterate that aforementioned quote many times throughout this piece, but I believe this is where the identification begins. Find pitchers who do things that make a hitter believe one thing, then do something different. There is a lot of value to be had dissecting movement profiles as compared to slot expectation.

This has been chronicled by Austin Marchesani, pitching analyst of the Los Angeles Angels. His research suggests there is no set “dead-zone” fastball profile. Which was previously defined as nearly identical vertical and horizontal breaks. The true “dead-zone” fastballs rely on an ever moving scale based on the pitcher’s slot.

Hitters have seen so many pitches and on the aggregate expect higher slot guys to have more ride on their fastball than run. And vice versa, expect pitchers with lower-slots to have more run than ride on their fastball. This is an over-simplification but hitters rely on averages and what their eye is trained to see.

Research of this type has led to an influx of low-slot, low-launch, high-ride FB ride guys within the professional ranks. This is because those are the outliers.

Outliers like Minnesota Twins righty Joe Ryan. Ryan pitched to a 3.55 ERA, held a 9.2 K/9 and had a top-5 run value on fastballs during his rookie season. All while averaging 91.9 MPH on his heater, over 2 MPH below average. How is that possible?

Ryan pitches from a slot that is below the well major league average but compensates for in extension and an outlier VAA.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 08, 2023 at 04:41 PM | 6 comment(s)
  Beats: draft

Saturday, November 06, 2021

MLB CBA negotiations: MLBPA makes second economics proposal with only minor changes, per report

The Players’ Association made their second economic proposal last week, report The Athletic’s Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal, though it included only minor adjustments to their initial proposal in May. Among other things, the union’s May proposal included:

Raising the minimum salary and getting players into arbitration earlier.
Changes to the way service time is calculated, including early free agency in some cases.
Adjustment to the way the draft order is determined (currently reverse order of the standings).

MLB made their first (and so far only) economic proposal in August and it included a $100 million salary floor and a $180 million luxury tax threshold, substantially lower than the $210 million threshold in 2021. Also, the salary floor would be a “soft” floor, in which teams could simply pay a penalty should they fail to field a $100 million roster.,

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 06, 2021 at 02:14 PM | 4 comment(s)
  Beats: draft, labor issues

 

 

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