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Friday, April 22, 2022

HALL OF FAME RESTRUCTURES ERA COMMITTEE, FRICK AWARD VOTING

Effective immediately, the Board has made changes to the Era Committee system that provide an avenue for Hall of Fame consideration to managers, umpires and executives, as well as players retired for more than 15 seasons.

Highlighting these changes is a consolidation of eras into two timeframes – the Contemporary Baseball Era, consisting of the period from 1980 to present day, and the Classic Baseball Era, consisting of the period prior to 1980 and including Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues stars. The Contemporary Baseball Era will split into two separate ballots – one ballot to consider only players who made their greatest impact on the game since 1980, and another composite ballot consisting of managers, executives and umpires whose greatest contributions to the game have come since 1980.

Each of these three Era Committees – the Contemporary Baseball Era player ballot, the Contemporary Baseball Era non-player ballot, and the Classic Baseball Era composite ballot – will rotate on an annual basis, with each ballot consisting of eight candidates.

Effective beginning in January 2023, eligible players must have been retired for 16 or more seasons, equal to a one-year waiting period following their final potential year of eligibility on the BBWAA ballot.

Eras considered for yearly election are as follows: December 2022 (for Class of 2023) – Contemporary Baseball/Players; December 2023 (for Class of 2024) – Contemporary Baseball/Managers-Umpires-Executives; December 2024 (for Class of 2025) – Classic Baseball. This cycle will repeat every three years, with Contemporary Baseball/Players eligible for consideration again in December 2025 for the Class of 2026.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 22, 2022 at 12:34 PM | 36 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame

Monday, March 07, 2022

Fansided: Examining the Hall of Fame case for New York Yankees legend Graig Nettles

Combine it all and Nettles has a career rWAR of 67.9. That includes nine seasons with an rWAR of at least 4.0.

That WAR is also the fifth-highest among non-Hall of Famers who have been on at least one HOF ballot, made their debut after 1901, and without a “character” clause issue (PED users, Pete Rose, and Curt Schilling). He’s behind Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, Rick Reuschel, and Kenny Lofton.

DanG Posted: March 07, 2022 at 11:08 AM | 17 comment(s)
  Beats: graig nettles, hall of fame, hall of fame candidates, yankees

Monday, January 31, 2022

Dialing It Down a Notch: The Next Five Years of BBWAA Hall of Fame Elections

2023
Top newcomers (ranked by JAWS): Carlos Beltrán, John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Jhonny Peralta, Francisco Rodríguez
Top holdovers (by voting pct.): Rolen, Helton, Wagner, Jones, Sheffield
Most likely to be elected: Rolen
Falling off: Jeff Kent

With two-year and three-year gains that both rank as the fourth-largest of the modern voting era, Rolen has climbed within range of election, following a path that resembles that of Mussina, who gained entry in his sixth year in 2019, more so than those of Raines or Edgar Martinez, who took until their 10th (2017 and ’19, respectively). Granted, of the 42 times in modern history that a candidate has landed in the 60-66% range with eligibility remaining, only nine times has that player been elected the following year, but five of the whiffs belong to Bonds and Clemens, and we can’t count Rolen as missing out yet. What’s more, of the last four candidates to get to that point besides the Gruesome Twosome, Mussina (63.5% in 2018) and Barry Larkin (62.1% in 2011) both went in a year later, while Schilling (60.94% in 2019) and Mike Piazza (62.2% in 2014) might have if not for the controversies that held them back.

As recently as three years ago, I believed that Beltrán would go in on the first ballot. He’s got a Hall-caliber resumé, with nine All-Star appearances, three Gold Gloves, 2,725 hits, 435 homers, outstanding postseason numbers (.307/.412/.609 with 16 homers) and the number nine ranking among center fielders in JAWS. However, the 2020 report of Beltrán’s central role in the Astros’ 2017 illegal sign-stealing saga, which cost him his managerial job with the Mets before he’d even set foot in the dugout, is obviously a setback. I still don’t think we know the extent to which voters will hold it against him, even with fellow managers Alex Cora and A.J. Hinch welcomed back into the game almost immediately after their suspensions ended; as the PED saga has shown regarding Bonds and Mark McGwire, MLB employment does not equal BBWAA forgiveness, whether or not one was officially disciplined.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 31, 2022 at 03:13 PM | 34 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame

Doug Glanville: Why I’m glad Barry Bonds wasn’t elected to the Hall of Fame

I don’t see why this distinction cannot be made who took PEDs and also had a record-setting impact. If we want to recognize PED users in the Hall, we can build them an exhibit, or even their own wing. We should acknowledge all of our history, both glorious and ugly. Like I am, with my paper, they can be in the Hall—as a fixture and as a recognition of their accomplishments. But I don’t see why they need a plaque.

What we celebrate—what we enshrine—should have a different set of criteria. We cannot treat induction into the Hall as simply an act of historical graduation—automatic entry into the Hall because the numbers are in record books—especially when the inductees did not stand on the shoulders of their predecessors so much as trample them into the ground with glee.

This is how society too often frames history: The winners tell the stories and end up on the pedestal. But how they get there matters, and if we put PEDs on a pedestal, it is one built with bricks etched with the names of many players left in their wake who also have compelling stories to tell.

Every record that Bonds broke was against another player. Bonds faced pitchers, just as Roger Clemens faced hitters. And the fact that so many baseball players—myself included—had to consistently try to beat out people who had a constant advantage is not something I can brush off simply because their final numbers made our eyes pop out of our heads.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 31, 2022 at 01:02 PM | 57 comment(s)
  Beats: barry bonds, hall of fame, peds

Sunday, January 30, 2022


Friday, January 28, 2022

Despite an Impressive Managerial Career and Missing Hall of Fame Election by a Single Check Mark, Lou Piniella Faces a Tough Road to be Voted into Cooperstown on a Future Ballot

In 2003, the Hall of Fame began releasing voting percentages for the Veterans and Era Committee elections.  Since that time, seven candidates—Dick Allen, John Fetzer, Marvin Miller, Tony Oliva, Lou Piniella, Allie Reynolds, and Ted Simmons have each missed gaining entry into Cooperstown by a single vote.  Of those seven candidates, Miller, Oliva, and Simmons were elected on a later ballot while the remaining four candidates still sit outside of the Hall of Fame.  The elections of Oliva and Simmons were particularly notable as they were voted in on the next ballot they were eligible to appear on after falling a single check mark shy.  With a cycle of elections for the Early Baseball and Golden Days timeframes recently completed, the Today’s Game epoch will be the next focus of the Era Committee when the voting body convenes later this year.  On the previous Today’s Game Era election, Piniella fell one tally short of being voted in.  Piniella’s near miss at Cooperstown immortality was overshadowed by the controversial election of Harold Baines who collected the exact 75% required for election by the Today’s Game Era Committee.  After coming so close to election, Piniella will undoubtedly be included on December’s Today’s Game Era ballot.  Like Oliva and Simmons, Piniella could have some momentum due to coming a single vote away on the previous Today’s Game Era ballot.  However, Piniella may have missed his best chance at being elected as he faces a tough road to Cooperstown with a solid slate of candidates set to become eligible for December’s Today’s Game Era ballot.  Nevertheless, Piniella’s long and distinguished managerial career gives the former skipper a strong Hall of Fame case that is worthy of a long look from Era Committee voters.

Dennis Eclairskey, closer Posted: January 28, 2022 at 08:43 AM | 45 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame, lou piniella, veterans committee

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

David Ortiz Lone Inductee Into Hall of Fame

ig Papi” was the only player to clear the 75 percent threshold for induction, according to results of this year’s voting by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Ortiz was named on 307 ballots (77.9 percent) in his first year of eligibility.

“I am truly honored and blessed by my selection to the Hall of Fame—the highest honor that any baseball player can reach in their lifetime,” Ortiz said in a statement released by the Boston Red Sox. “I am grateful to the baseball writers who considered my career in its totality, not just on the statistics.”

Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 25, 2022 at 06:56 PM | 120 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame, red sox

Thursday, January 20, 2022

Sherman: In defense of the blank Hall of Fame ballot

Understand that this is not a binary vote, like Democrat vs. Republican, where one is going to be mayor or governor or president. Each voter can choose anywhere from 0 to 10 candidates, which means there are all kinds of ranges of outcomes. But the biggest issue is the 75 percent threshold.

It is hard to get three out of four friends to agree where to go to dinner. Now try to get a few hundred people to determine what they think of whether to vote for candidates with steroid clouds, especially when those clouds come in different sizes. Factor in those who think the Hall of Fame should be small — the best 1 percent of players ever, roughly — and those who think it should be larger and spread to the top 2 or 3 or perhaps even 4 percent. Do you favor old stats or modern analytics or a cocktail?

Last year no candidate amassed the requisite 75 percent, but four bettered 50 percent — a total with which most mayoral, gubernatorial and presidential candidates would be thrilled. Curt Schilling received 71.1 percent of the vote, then blasted the electors. So he was painting broadly a group that by more than 7 out of 10 thought he should be in the Hall. This year’s tracking had six candidates at 56 percent or more and two others close to 50 percent. If election was about a majority, there would be multiple Hall of Famers this year.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 20, 2022 at 08:04 PM | 44 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Why does Baseball Hall of Fame voting make people so mad?

Van Bavel’s second point is that the Hall is necessarily fraught — “it’s kind of like a shrine, that’s why they call it being enshrined in the whole thing. And so when you have sacred values, those are the types of things that become moralized for people.”

Between a confluence of suspected PED users on the ballot and a growing attention to off-field infractions, that’s never been more true. The Hall of Fame has become a forum for discussing not just what we value in a baseball player, but what can and can’t abide in a beloved public figure.

“So many of these candidates, you crack open their candidacy and it’s a referendum on one idea or another as to what defines a Hall of Famer,” says Jay Jaffe, a FanGraphs writer and the industry’s foremost expert of objective Hall of Fame analysis.

He’s written about — and quantified to the best of anyone’s ability — what makes a Hall of Famer as it’s evolved to include advanced metrics and a closer read of the character clause. The latter is far trickier and involves weighing athletic exploits against a gamut of infractions from cheating between the lines to credible accusations of domestic violence and sexual harassment (in the case of Omar Vizquel, whose candidacy is, in Jaffe’s expert opinion, “really, really f***ed, and rightly so” — a sentiment reflected in the tallied ballots).

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 19, 2022 at 12:25 PM | 26 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame

Sunday, January 16, 2022

With Jon Lester’s retirement we ask: How do you define a Hall of Fame starting pitcher?

Put another way: Adjusting for the diminished frequency of starts resulting in wins, the equivalent of 300 wins in 1901-10 would be 185 starting pitcher victories, based on how pitchers were deployed.

Of course, “wins” and “losses” were already imperfect statistics for judging pitcher performance based on elements beyond the pitcher’s control, including offensive support and the defense behind him. Still, the shifting nature of the starting pitcher’s role, which will affect other cumulative stats such as WAR, innings, and strikeouts, will make it ever more difficult to use current Hall members as a basis for judging future Hall-worthiness.

“Are you going to judge all the modern-day pitchers based on the past or the present, the years they pitched? . . . You can’t compare eras anymore,” said Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Palmer. “People are going to have to recalibrate what it takes to be a Hall of Fame pitcher.”

In 2010, at his first All-Star Game, Lester expressed his desire to win 300 games and to be a Hall of Famer. With experience, he laughed at the standards he’d once considered attainable.

“Three hundred wins is I think impossible now,” he said. “Now I feel like you’re only relied upon to get 12, 15 outs. So if that’s the case, heck, 100 wins is unfathomable for some guys. Three hundred is just a whole other stratosphere.”

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 16, 2022 at 03:50 PM | 48 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame, jon lester

Friday, January 14, 2022

Bill James: Vagabonds and Homebodies

    Comparing two players of reasonably equal Hall of Fame credentials, one of whom moves from team to team and the other of whom stays put for most of his career, the player who is easily identified with one team is not only more likely to be elected to the Hall of Fame, but MUCH more likely to be elected to the Hall of Fame.  A player who hopscotches from team to team may be reducing his Hall of Fame election chances by 50% or more by doing so.

        Last week on “Hey, Bill”  a reader (Phil Dellio) suggested that the knockaround, move-around, get-out-of-town nature of Gary Sheffield’s career might be impacting his Hall of Fame voting performance.  Actually, he was making a slightly different point, beyond that one, but anyway. . .that seems credible.  I may have suggested the same thing myself some time in the past, not sure, but it seems reasonably possible, so I responded that I would try to figure out how to study the issue.

        I have now done that study.  Staying with one team for a longer period of time either directly results in better Hall of Fame chances for the player, or is allied with some other trait, some skill not identified and adjusted for in this method, which results in a quite significant increase in the Cooperstown chances of any player with a less than impeccable Hall of Fame resume.  Or, frankly, even a player WITH an impeccable Hall of Fame resume.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 14, 2022 at 10:45 AM | 58 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame

Wednesday, January 12, 2022

How baseball Hall of Fame voting trends are evolving

Thibodaux said one of the most interesting things about the electorate is how it has decreased in size. To earn a Hall of Fame vote, writers have to be BBWAA members for 10 years. But a new rule established in 2016 removed voters who hadn’t been active members for 10 or more years.

“That really makes a huge difference, especially when most of the people who have left the electorate are the older voters,” Thibodaux said. “Certainly they are more anti-PED than the younger voters. They also don’t vote based on analytics as much. They tend to be smaller-Hall style voters.”

The number of voters dropped from 549 in 2015 to 440 in 2016. After the ballots peaked at 581 in 2011, they’ve resided between 440 and 397 since the rule change.

Since 2016, Thibodaux points to Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, and Larry Walker as evidence of change in voting criteria. None of those three reached 3,000 hits, which has long been an important consideration needed to gain entrance to the Hall as a batter.

David Ortiz, another candidate with fewer than 3,000 hits, has a chance to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 12, 2022 at 12:03 PM | 8 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame

Monday, May 22, 2017

Focus on Jeter should inspire memories of Garciaparra’s peak

“it’s as if Jeter stands alone as the shortstop talent for a generation.

It’s too bad, considering that Garciaparra was every bit the player Jeter was. And in his prime, he was better.

There’s no question that Jeter brings the superior career to a debate between the two. Injuries derailed what Garciaparra could become from a legacy standpoint, and cost him the Hall of Fame”

Shortstops with most seasons of 6+ WAR, debuting 1969+:

Name            Yrs From   To   Age
Cal Ripken        6 1983 1991 22
-30
Alan Trammell     6 1983 1990 25
-32
Alex Rodriguez    6 1996 2003 20
-27
Nomar Garciaparra 6 1997 2003 23
-29
Ozzie Smith       4 1985 1989 30
-34
Troy Tulowitzki   4 2007 2011 22
-26
Robin Yount       3 1980 1983 24
-27
Barry Larkin      3 1988 1996 24
-32
Derek Jeter       3 1998 2009 24
-35 

 

DanG Posted: May 22, 2017 at 12:50 PM | 50 comment(s)
  Beats: derek jeter, hall of fame, nomar garciaparra, red sox, yankees

Friday, January 20, 2012

Q&A: Larry Walker on his Hall of Fame snub

“Mr. Walker is not a suspect…We don’t know if the person was killed at the site or if his body was dumped there.”

CBCSports.ca: Who’s more upset about your low vote total in the second year of your 15 years of eligibility: you or your family, friends and former teammates with Colorado and Montreal?

LW: I don’t think it bothers me a lot. Why am I going to get my feathers all ruffled over something that’s out of my control? Obviously, it would be an amazing honour.

Some people have pointed some things out to me that made me wonder. [Designated hitter] Edgar Martinez [only played 592 of his 2,055 career games in the field] and he’s getting twice as many votes as me [36.5 per cent to Walker’s 22.9 per cent]. Is Edgar Martinez twice the better player than me?

Not to pat myself on the back but I think I was as good as Edgar Martinez.

But I’m not going to rack my brain. I’m sure there’s people that are in the Hall of Fame that a lot people think shouldn’t be there or some that should be there and aren’t.

CBCSports.ca: The knock against you when people say Larry Walker shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame is that you played 10 of your 17 seasons at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado. But a lot of times players can’t control where they play, right?

LW: I was in the big leagues, man. Are you she—-in me? You can’t always pick where you go or what happens. You just roll with the friggin’ punches. I was in the dugout trying to beat the other 25 guys in the dugout beside us. That’s all I tried to do. I can’t control where I’m at and the numbers that go up. Every ballpark has its quirks.

If you read something in the paper or a magazine or hear something on TV, whether it’s negative or positive, people tend to want to go that way with it. If what was being printed all this time was ‘Walker deserves the [Hall of Fame nod], he’s going to make it,’ I bet my percentage would be a lot higher. But all you hear about is Coors Field. That’s all I’ve heard since my first game in Denver [in 1995].

Repoz Posted: January 20, 2012 at 05:51 AM | 51 comment(s)
  Beats: expos, hall of fame, history, rockies

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Fergie Jenkins still emotionally invested in Cubs, keeping an eye on Epstein

Clumsy.

Ferguson Jenkins takes a wait-and-see attitude towards Theo Epstein’s appointment as president of baseball operations of the Chicago Cubs.

...The Cubs hired Epstein in October. Jenkins is holding off on giving Epstein his full endorsement.

“I really don’t know what to take of him yet,” Jenkins said Thursday in Calgary. “I tried to get a meeting with him and he was really busy.

“He’s young. He’s never put a jockstrap on though. See that’s the thing. I tell people all the time ‘this guy reads about the game and has seen it on TV or in stadiums,’ but he’s a pretty smart individual. He knows talent and that’s what it’s all about.

“People sit back and say ‘you know he never played’ but he watches and recognizes what individuals can do what and where they can play.”

Repoz Posted: January 19, 2012 at 10:20 PM | 17 comment(s)
  Beats: cubs, fantasy baseball, hall of fame, sabermetrics

The Platoon Advantage: Jack Morris is going to be a Hall of Famer, and that’s OK

BTW…I’m compiling a (H/T Moral Idiot) massivo (HA!) list of BBWAA ballotears for their Pro-Bonds/Clemens (9 as of now) ~ Anti-Bonds/Clemens (12 as of now) promised HOF ballots.

For a second thing: it’s getting to be a cliche by now, but it’s absolutely true that 2013 is going to be completely unlike any ballot that has come before. Jaffe’s reasoning is that “Morris probably won’t move up enough because it is such a strong batch of new guys.” I don’t think so. There are certainly a lot of should-be slam dunks coming in, but the only new guy who figures to finish particularly strong in the voting is Craig Biggio, and he’s far from a first-ballot lock. By and large, the guys interested in voting for Morris aren’t the same ones who might be tempted to bump Morris off because they’re voting for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens and Biggio, and/or some combination of deserving first-timers or holdovers like Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Curt Schilling, Kenny Lofton, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro and Edgar Martinez. If anything, the vast majority of them will bump any of those guys off (even Bonds or Clemens, maybe especially Bonds or Clemens) in favor of the presumptively “clean” Morris, who won’t have the fourteen shots left most of these guys will (assuming they get 5% of the vote, which I think will be a problem for Lofton and possibly Palmeiro).

Rather, the real 1999-like year, in terms of players the voters are actually likely to want to enshrine, is the following year, 2014: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Frank Thomas are all pretty close to first-ballot shoo-ins. You might as well think of 2013 as Morris’ last year on the ballot, because he’s not going in with those dudes.

So, that’s why I think Morris goes in next year. As amazing as the talent on the 2013 ballot is, it’s not going to pull many votes off of Morris, thanks to the “PE"D questions and because it’ll be viewed as his last realistic shot. It’s 2013 or nothing…and for 75%-plus of the voters, it’s going to be 2013. He’s going in. Might as well get used to it.

Repoz Posted: January 19, 2012 at 06:01 AM | 193 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame, history, projections, sabermetrics

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Genetti: Lack of black players will open baseball HOF doors to others

This anti-Jeter gunk has got to stop!

Lee Smith, Tim Raines, Fred McGriff, Bernie Williams and Willie McGee aren’t in the Hall of Fame.

But they will be.

...The last thing baseball is going to want is some statistic come out showing a small number of blacks inducted into the Hall of Fame over a certain amount of time, so the next thing — which will more than likely happen — is well-deserving black players will be inducted here and there over time.

Perhaps it’s a stretch to have this thought, but if you look at the great white and Hispanic players that have dominated the game over the last couple of decades, there’s really no outstanding black players to get excited over. That’s why this lack of African-American players in baseball will give those currently on the ballot a bigger opportunity. Even at this moment the only black player who is baseball Hall of Fame-worthy is Prince Fielder.

Don’t get me wrong, this is not going to be done out of sympathy, I just believe the powers that be are going to conserve these players so there’s no absence of African-Americans going into Cooperstown over the next 10 or more years.

All of the players I’ve mentioned are very much worthy of the Hall of Fame, I just hope they’re inducted sooner rather than later.

Repoz Posted: January 17, 2012 at 11:24 PM | 241 comment(s)
  Beats: fantasy baseball, hall of fame, history

BPP: An interview with Robert Creamer

Creamer: His Life and Times. Terrific interview with Womack. (answers shortened here to save site/brain from exploding)

Who’s the greatest baseball player you covered?

Willie Mays. Period.

I seem to remember that Bill James, using his fabulous, desiccated statistics, demonstrated that Mickey Mantle, who was Willie’s almost exact contemporary, was actually the better player, and I’m not equipped to argue with Bill, although I’ll try. And there are DiMaggio, Williams, Musial, Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez – no, wait. I didn’t cover DiMaggio, who retired after the 1951 season — I didn’t start with Sports Illustrated until 1954. But that’s still a pretty impressive collection of players to put Willie on top of.

You’ve written biographies on Casey Stengel and Babe Ruth. If steroids had been a part of the game when Stengel and Ruth were players, do you think they would have used?

Sure. Yes. Absolutely. Hell, for decades before the big scandal about steroids in baseball, clubhouses used to have plates or dishes filled with little candy-like pills players gulped or chewed on routinely. My mind is gone – I forget what they were called.. Uppers? Bennies? I can’t recall. But that was standard. Athletes are always looking for an edge and that was a way to get them fired up. I have never been as upset by steroid use as the moralistic holier-than-thou baseball writers who vote on the Hall of Fame. What a bunch of self-important phonies!

I mean, you’d think all an ordinary player would have to do is take steroids to hit 70 home runs or bat .350. But I think McGwire was telling the truth — he took steroids to hold back distress, to make him physically able to play the game. Steroids don’t make a player good. Think of the hundreds, even thousands of players who have been in and out of the major leagues and who may have dabbled in steroids and think how few have hit 50, let alone 60 or 70 homers.

Repoz Posted: January 17, 2012 at 05:41 AM | 59 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame, history, media, steroids

Monday, January 16, 2012

THT: Jaffe: The possible upcoming Cooperstown ballot apocalypse

What should happen? Well, among non-Bonds/Clements voters, Biggio should get around 85 percent. With the others, he’ll get less in what’s already a crowded ballot for people willing to support PED-rs. I’d guess he gets 65-70 percent of their vote. Maybe less.

Upshot: Biggio has a very good shot to get in. Assuming he gets 85 percent of the non-Bonds/Clemens guys (and he really should, given the clustering of Molitor/Winfield/Murray right at 85 percent), and assuming Bonds and Clemens get about 40 percent of the vote, Biggio needs only 60 percent of the votes from the supporters of Bonds and Clemens. That should happen.

Actually, I find this a bit surprising. A week ago, I assumed that Biggio was doomed on this messy ballot. That would set off the real nightmare, because if everyone from this year’s vote went into next year, it would be that much harder for anyone to rise up.

But Biggio should go in next year. No one else should. If Fisk couldn’t get elected as the fourth-best new guy in 1999, Piazza won’t in 2012. Schilling will finish further down, and Sosa may be under 10 percent. As for the backloggers, Morris probably won’t move up enough because it is such a strong batch of new guys. I think he’ll get close but ultimately have to go to the VC.

VC = Viva Caputo!

Repoz Posted: January 16, 2012 at 02:17 PM | 48 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame, history, projections, site news

CAPUTO: Why I won’t vote for Bonds, Clemens or Sosa for the Hall of Fame

Former Tigers pitcher Jack Morris was named on the second-most ballots - nearly 67 percent.

In the aftermath, Peter Gammons, one of the preeminent baseball writers of all time, talked on MLB Network about how he put Morris on the ballot the first three years he was eligible, but stopped because another baseball writer had displayed extensive statistical proof to him that Morris’ 3.90 ERA was “not because he pitched to the score” but rather because he lost a lot of leads.

Right then I decided this coming year, the first time they are eligible for election to the Hall of Fame, I am not voting for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens or Sammy Sosa.

...Gammons said Bagwell is like a hockey player (whatever that means) and was one of those 10-to-12 hour per day in the weight room guys, who lost weight later in his career (ala Pudge Rodriguez) because he had a shoulder injury that prevented him from lifting. It’s the type of thinking that was prevalent from many baseball writers during the steroids era. Always buying the story. Unfortunately, I was one of them. I’d like to think I’ve learned my lesson.

...But if Hall voters are going to be so picky about the career ERA of Jack Morris, why not about possible PED use?

I strongly feel this: If Morris gets in, it will still be the Hall of Fame.

If Bonds, Clemens and Sosa are inducted, it would become

(Yanks out Rogers’ Dictionary of Cliches ~ Looks for entry form)

the Hall of Shame.

Repoz Posted: January 16, 2012 at 05:40 AM | 37 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame, history, media, steroids, tigers

Friday, January 13, 2012

BBPro:  Heartburn Hardball - Jack Morris in Motion

Morris, who was the face of the Detroit Tigers’ pitching staff for the entirety of the eighties before spending the early nineties hopping between the Twins, Blue Jays, and Indians, has every right to be thrilled at the news. And the rest of us, especially those who were too young to see him pitch, have every right to ask…why Jack Morris? Why now?

To answer that question, I decide to watch the most famous performance of his career, the game that proved once and for all that he was a true ace and a true winner.

....

The Twins will win 1-0 in the bottom of the 10th, winning the second World Series title in franchise history and solidifying Jack Morris’s place in baseball history.

And when it’s over, I will be more convinced than ever that Jack Morris is not a Hall of Fame pitcher.

 

 

Completely Unbiased 3rd Party Lurker Posted: January 13, 2012 at 01:39 PM | 83 comment(s)
  Beats: braves, hall of fame, tigers, twins

BPP: Darowski: The Small Hall (of wWAR)

Erardiabolical!

Joe recently wrote a post called To the BBWAA: Focus on the Great, Not the Very Good. In the post, Joe explains his “small Hall” stance. It’s not a stance I agree with, but I’ve been intrigued by the idea of a “small Hall” since coming up with my system to rank Hall of Famers (via Weighted WAR and the Hall of wWAR). To get a “small Hall” by wWAR, you just have to pick a higher cutoff than I use for my Hall.

So, let’s see what a Small Hall of wWAR would look like.

Center Field

  Ty Cobb (305.5)
  Willie Mays (298.8)
  Tris Speaker (247.9)
  Mickey Mantle (228.4)
  Joe DiMaggio (145.7)
  Billy Hamilton (118.6)
  Duke Snider (115.0)

There are not very many center fielders in the Hall of wWAR. But gosh is the position top-heavy. Look at that. Four guys above 200 (225, even). And that doesn’t even include Joltin’ Joe and the Duke. Who’s next? There’s a huge 20 wWAR drop-off before we get to Jimmy Wynn (95.1). Then there’s Richie Ashburn (84.8) and 19th century stars George Gore (82.9) and Paul Hines (78.3). Exiting the Hall would be Ashburn, Hugh Duffy, Larry Doby (again, just because this is purely statistical), Earle Combs, Kirby Puckett, Edd Roush, Earl Averill, Hack Wilson, and Lloyd Waner.

Repoz Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:59 PM | 65 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame, history, sabermetrics

Wezen-Ball: HOF Candidates as Prospects

As we wait for the Hall of Fame announcement to come sometime Monday morning - for the record, I’m predicting that Barry Larkin will be the only new inductee this year, with Jack Morris getting dangerously close to the 70% mark - it seems like the perfect time to go back and look at how the main candidates on this year’s ballot looked coming into the major leagues. Using my collection of annual baseball preview magazines from the likes of Street and Smith’s and The Sporting News, I’ve gone back and found each candidate’s name in the various “minor leagues” sections of the magazines. It’s always fun to see what everyone was saying about some of the game’s greats before we knew them to be so.


Neyer: Did Joe Torre Cost Jorge Posada His Shot At Cooperstown?

Joe Torre - history’s greatest monster.

Anyway, you can read all about that. In the wake of the reports, I got this e-mail message:

I am looking over the 3 part time years that Jorge split with Girardi. Joe must have been drunk. This friggin’ loyalty may have cost Posada the HOF.

1997 - Posada 188 AB, 101 OPS+
1997 - Girardi 398 AB, 69 OPS+


1998 - Posada 358 AB, 115 OPS+
1998 - Girardi 254 AB, 85 OPS+


1999 - Posada 379 AB, 91 OPS+
1999 - Girardi 209 AB, 60 OPS+


Man, I did not know Girardi was his bad. But Torre gave Girardi 600 ABs for 2 years, when he could not crack the 70 OPS+ line. I think was never noticed or talked about because those Yankee teams won so much.

He got a total of nearly 850 AB during this 3 years span. That is a damn near
travesty.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:22 AM | 3 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame, yankees

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Neyer: Who Will the Cardinals Miss the Most?

Rally squirrel, obv.

Thursday, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s website ran a poll:

Whose departure will have the biggest impact on the Cardinals?

The choices: Dave Duncan, Tony La Russa, Albert Pujols…

What I found most interesting about the poll wasn’t that Pujols finished last, but that Dave Duncan finished first, with 42 percent next to La Russa’s 30 and Albert’s 28… I’m intrigued by the notion that Cardinals fans might actually give more credit to Duncan than La Russa for the team’s recent successes. Partly because I’m not completely sure they’re wrong.

But hey, let’s make this about the Hall of Fame, since we could never get tired of that.

This isn’t an original thought, either for me or the rest of the Internet, but I believe Dave Duncan deserves, if not more credit than La Russa, at least some real Hall of Fame consideration…

In the five years before Duncan got hold of Dave Stewart, he went 30-35 with a 98 ERA+. In the next five years, he went 93-50 with a 118 ERA+.

I don’t know how much of that was Dave Duncan, how much was Tony La Russa, and how much was just Dave Stewart getting a chance to pitch. But if I were somehow involved with the Hall of Fame, I would like to know.

I would like to know that, and a lot more.

The District Attorney Posted: January 12, 2012 at 07:40 PM | 28 comment(s)
  Beats: cardinals, hall of fame

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