The Mets provided some clarity on the condition of injured ace Jacob deGrom on Tuesday.

Team president Sandy Alderson said deGrom has been sidelined with a sprain of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, but that injury has healed and the ligament is “perfectly intact, based on the MRIs and our clinical evaluations through our doctors.”

Tuesday marked the first time deGrom’s injury had been termed a “sprain.” The team had previously described him as battling “right elbow inflammation.” But Alderson cautioned that the word sprain was a “technical term ... another term for a very mild ligament condition,” and he called deGrom’s injury “a very low-grade thing that has resolved itself.”...

The Mets remain puzzled about the origin of deGrom’s elbow problems.

“I don’t think we know exactly what has caused the problem, but if you were to look at it generally throughout baseball, I think velocity has something to do with a lot of these injuries,” Alderson said before New York faced the Marlins on Tuesday night at loanDepot park. “Whether it’s true in his case or not, I don’t know. I’m not a doctor, I haven’t done all the research. But I suspect there’s a correlation between the velocity that pitchers exhibit today and the rate of injury, which is a concern.”

he New York Mets said Friday that Jacob deGrom will be out until September due to additional inflammation in his right forearm.

According to acting New York general manager Zack Scott, deGrom threw a bullpen session Thursday and then was diagnosed with the inflammation.

DeGrom reached the high 90s near the end of his session, per Mets manager Luis Rojas, but then didn’t throw Friday, a deviation from his routine. He will be shut down from throwing for two weeks, pushing back the timetable of his return to September.

The ace right-hander is 7-2 in 15 starts with a 1.08 ERA, but last pitched July 7 when he struck out 10 in seven innings against the Milwaukee Brewers.

DeGrom has suffered five injuries this season—shoulder soreness, right lat tightness, right side tightness and right flexor tendinitis were the other ailments—had two starts pushed back and had an earlier stint on the injured list in May. When he landed on the IL with forearm tightness, he said the previous four injuries had each been caused while batting.

t was a dream scenario for the New York Mets’ biggest crowd at Citi Field since 2019. There was the energy of a packed house, and ace Jacob deGrom earning the MVP chants that rained down upon him. A lead in the middle innings against the dangerous San Diego Padres.

Then deGrom left the game after six shutout innings, just 80 pitches and a consultation with Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. The team announced that he departed with right flexor tendinitis. The Padres scored two quick runs, and the dream scenario nearly turned into a nightmare.

Well, for everyone but deGrom.

“My level of concern is not too high,” deGrom said of his elbow injury following the Mets’ 3-2 win. “I’m pretty sure it’s going to be something that we can treat and hopefully not miss any time.”

DeGrom doesn’t plan to seek an MRI or other imaging, and he expects to proceed with his normal routine in preparation for his next start, with a little extra treatment mixed in.

To get an idea of deGrom’s probability of finishing with an ERA of 1.12 or better, I worked with a technique I’ve used in the past, which “simulates” a season using Monte Carlo algorithms and a smoothed model of a pitcher’s starts based on their projections and historical usage. At 189.2 innings (what he has in the bag, plus the 22 starts of 6.3 innings per start in his depth chart projections), he needs to allow 23 or fewer runs or a 1.23 ERA for the rest of the season. At 162 total innings, he’d have to maintain a 1.30 ERA the rest of the way.

deGrom’s no slam-dunk to catch Gibson, but he’s got a fighting chance, with my model estimating a 3.1% chance to beat a 1.12 ERA, or more precisely, Gibson’s 1.122538 (no cheating with rounding here!). That’s about 31-to-1, a little better than getting the exact number in roulette and roughly the probability of a 20-homer hitter getting a round-tripper in any given at-bat. In other words, it’s more likely than not that he falls short of the feat, but it’s definitely possible and firmly in the realm of plausibility.

The New York Mets will not have right-handed starter Jacob deGrom toeing the rubber for them when they continue their four-game series on Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals. Rather, the Mets scratched deGrom hours before first pitch because of “right side tightness,” according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Reliever Miguel Castro is expected to open the game for the Mets. 

The Mets later announced an MRI revealed inflammation in deGrom’s right lat, and he will not throw the next few days. He will not be placed on the injured list, however.

Through deGrom’s first five starts this season, he had been in the midst of a historic run. He’d accumulated a 0.51 ERA (758 ERA+) and a 14.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio while averaging seven innings per outing.

There are many ways to measure poor luck, so let’s look at another: win-loss record vs. expected record, based on runs allowed and team run support. Basically, using the “Pythagorean” theorem — air quotes here because no triangles — I re-estimated every pitcher’s expected win total if their teams had scored their average number of runs per game rather than the team’s actual performance. We have this data going back to 2002, which seemed a logical cutoff mark and should capture every active pitcher. As I’m ranking pitchers by most missing wins per 30 games started, I’ve limited it to pitchers with 100 total starts.

By this estimate, if the Mets just scored runs the way they do for their other pitchers, it would add roughly 17 wins to deGrom’s career line, shifting his record to a healthier 89-34. That’s the second-most in baseball behind Ryan Franklin during his years with Seattle. Franklin didn’t pitch well in those Mariners seasons, but his 30-49 record was much worse than you would have expected from a pitcher with a 98 ERA+. If we consider only those pitchers we think of as stars (sorry, Ryan), deGrom comes out on top (or is it the bottom?) here.

The two-time Cy Young Award winner was in peak form Friday night against the Nationals, tossing his second career shutout with a career-high 15 strikeouts. That brings his season punch-out total to 50, breaking the previous record of 48 for most strikeouts in a player’s first four outings held by Shane Bieber (2021) and Nolan Ryan (1978).

ecause he can do no wrong, deGrom also went 2-for-4 at the plate with an RBI double. He’s 6-for-11 on the season and has a hit in every game he’s played in, and has scored more runs (three) than earned runs given up (one).

The Mets won, 6-0, as deGrom lowered his career ERA to 2.55—the lowest in Mets history. He allowed just two hits and no walks on the night.

deGrom has notched at least 14 strikeouts in his last three starts, becoming the third player ever to accomplish that feat along with Gerrit Cole (2019) and Pedro Martínez (1999). He’s the first Mets pitcher to strike out 15 since Al Leiter on Aug. 8, 1999, per MLB.com’s Sarah Langs.

Of his 109 pitches, 10 clocked in at 100 miles per hour or harder, topping out at 101 mph. deGrom got 30 swings-and-misses and retired the last 19 batters of the game.

The Mets went from May to Mayday to mayhem in a torturous five-run inning that buried them in a 5-3 loss to the Phillies, spoiling a Jacob deGrom gem, in their season opener at Citizens Bank Park.

Entrusted a two-run lead in his Mets debut, Trevor May loaded the bases with one out in the eighth. Another new arrival, lefty Aaron Loup, entered and plunked Bryce Harper to force in a run. J.T. Realmuto’s ensuing RBI single tied it, and Luis Guillorme’s throw home that ticked off James McCann’s glove on Alex Bohm’s grounder (the error was charged to Guillorme) allowed two additional runs. The Phillies scored a final run on Didi Gregorius’ sacrifice fly.

The Mets got three straight two-out hits in the ninth against Jose Alvarado, but Pete Alonso was retired with the tying runs on base to conclude the game.

DeGrom was removed after only 77 pitches. The right-hander fired six shutout innings and allowed only three hits with seven strikeouts and two walks. He also went 2-for-3 with an RBI on a night the Mets totaled 10 hits, none for extra bases.

As we focused on the Mets’ contract talks with Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto and even Noah Syndergaard, the team had still another idea: It was quietly reaching out to its biggest star, Jacob deGrom, about a new deal.

According to multiple sources with knowledge of the situation, the Mets and deGrom this spring engaged in preliminary discussions on a contract extension. Talks did not progress and are not expected to resume this season. Repeat: This is a dead issue for now.

So why is the information meaningful? Because it shows that the Mets are at least mindful of attempting to head off deGrom’s opt out after the 2022 season, and keep him with the team for the remainder of his career. This is worth bookmarking for next offseason….

Earlier this spring, deGrom answered questions about his opt out and the possibility of remaining with the Mets for his entire career.

“The goal is to go out there and perform and then when that time comes, make that decision,” deGrom said. “But one thing I do think is really, really, really cool is whenever somebody spends their entire career with one team. You don’t see it happen a whole lot anymore. So it’s definitely something that I’ve thought about, and we just have to see when that time comes.”