Projecting Seiya Suzuki

ZiPS suggests a five-year, $83 million contract for Suzuki, though some of that wouldn’t be part of his contract, with a chunk instead going to the Carp as a posting fee. (Based on the ZiPS’ projected contract, the posting fee would be about $14 million under MLB’s current arrangement with NPB, and I swear, I didn’t change Suzuki’s cut to $69 million in order to make that joke.)

And there’s at least some chance that Suzuki’s deal winds up going even higher for a few reasons not tied to a rigid WAR-to-dollars relationship. The free agent roster for outfielders isn’t particularly deep this winter, giving contending teams a real incentive to be aggressive if that’s where they need help. Also, with the now nearly-certain addition of the universal designated hitter, 15 National League teams need to find 650 plate appearances for a high-offense player. Not every team has that in-house — interleague play isn’t enough to justify NL teams carrying a solid DH — and a league-average corner outfielder or first baseman is going to make a much better DH than a league-average catcher or shortstop would. That could result in a real bonus for Suzuki, along with players like Castellanos, Conforto, Nelson Cruz, and Anthony Rizzo, with Rizzo likely pushing an incumbent first baseman to DH. (Freddie Freeman is the obvious elite option at first base, though he’s already a tier or two above the rest of the free agents in terms of performance and salary, so the universal DH will probably provide less of a boost to his eventual deal.)