So let’s get down to it: Can Arraez hit .400?...

In a way, Arraez’s lack of power makes him more susceptible to swings in BABIP than a normal hitter. When Manny was hitting in the .380s at this point in 2001, he was on pace to hit 56 home runs; 19 of his hits were going to be hits no matter what the defense did. Arraez’s BABIP is… huge! It’s enormous! It’s gigantic! That .405 mark is the second-highest BABIP among 161 qualified hitters, and if it stayed that high all season, it would be remarkable. In the past decade, only Yoán Moncada in 2019 has posted a higher BABIP as a qualified hitter in a 162-game season. The only other hitters to break .390 in that time were Tim Anderson that same season and Avisaíl García in 2017. (So yes, Arraez can hit .400, but only if he gets traded to the late-2010s White Sox.)

Arraez’s expected batting average this season is the fourth-highest among qualified hitters, but it’s only .332. And while Arraez is in the top 10 in batting average on contact (as you’d expect, given how frequently he makes contact), he’s overperforming his xBACON by the fourth-highest margin in baseball as of this writing.

So, the Statcast numbers say he’s going to regress. But I don’t really care, for two reasons. First, Arraez is built to confound expected statistics based on launch angle and exit velocity. We’re into the fifth season of Arraez’s major league career, and in all five of those seasons, he’s combined an absolutely trash hard-hit rate with elite xBA numbers and huge BABIPs. And beyond that, he’s outperformed his xBA in four of his five major league seasons, including this one. If that’s a fluke, it’s a fluke that’s been perpetuated over five years and nearly 1,800 plate appearances.

The Marlins are set to acquire reigning AL batting champ and All-Star infielder Luis Arraez from the Twins for right-hander Pablo López and two other players, a source told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand on Friday. Neither club has confirmed the deal, which is expected to send infield prospect Jose Salas and outfield prospect Byron Chourio to Minnesota, according to Feinsand.

Salas, 19, is ranked by MLB Pipeline as the No. 5 prospect in Miami’s system.