SI.com: Economic considerations at heart of Carmona’s decision

An interesting analysis of signing ages, signing bonuses, and success rates in the Dominican Republic, by Melissa Segura of Sports Illustrated ...

Teams pay premiums for 16-year-olds for two primary reasons: One, because teams often want to be the first to sign a promising player and, thus, avoid bidding wars with other teams; and two, clubs prefer to develop their players’ skills under the watchful eyes of their own club personnel rather than under those of unqualified and unaffiliated coaches or trainers.

But are 18-year-old Latin American players really worth 70 percent less than their 16-year-old counterparts? Here’s another data analysis that calls into question the industry practice of placing a premium on youth. Let’s assume the most basic marker of a successful signing is making it to the majors. We’ll make it simple and look at the 79 players who have made their major league debuts from 2008-2011 from Carmona’s Dominican Republic. Of those 79, only six were signed as 16-year-olds. The debuts suggest older players were more likely to advance to the majors. ...

[...]

What’s more, SI tracked down the bonus data for 60 of the 79 players. Fernando Martinez, signed by the Mets in 2005 for $1.3 million, was the only one to receive a seven-figure bonus. Only nine others signed for six figures and one — the Rockies’ Juan Nicasio — received nada to sign, according to the data obtained by SI. The median signing bonus among them tallied a paltry $35,000.

Castrovince: Counsell, Donnelly share special bond

Pretty great story. 

“Craig is part of our family,” Donnelly says.

It’s a family that lost a precious member far too soon, but has become spiritually strengthened by an event in 1997 that still, to this day, overwhelms those who hear about it. It’s a story that, as Counsell himself says, “screams Disney movie.”

“Anybody I’ve ever told the story to ... they’re blown away,” Counsell says. “You can bring people to tears just by telling the story.”

* * * * *

The story begins with five words that, when strung together, sound nothing short of nonsensical:

“The chicken runs at midnight.”

MLB Trade Rumors: Bartolo Colon Agrees to Sign With Unknown Team

Bartolo Colon has agreed to a deal with an unknown club reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter). The right-hander wouldn’t divulge the team because he has not yet passed his physical.

Pretty sure it’s either the All-Stars or the Champs.

Miami Herald: [Buehrle] is a Marlin, but not in Miami

Are we sure this wasn’t just Animal Services seeing this?

The Miami Marlins really wanted left-handed pitcher Mark Buehrle.

But a member of his family isn’t welcome in Miami-Dade County.

Eighteen-month-old Slater Buehrle is an American Staffordshire Terrier — a type of pit bull — and keeping one is illegal in Miami-Dade…

Buehrle, 32, said that “if it came down to not finding a house’’ where all his canines could live, he might not have signed with the Marlins, “but I knew we’d eventually find a place.’’

They did, in a south Broward development without the restrictions that some Broward homeowners’ associations impose.

Kevin Goldstein: Miami Marlins Top 11 Prospects

System In 20 Words Or Less: The system finds some depth and star power in Yelich, but there is still an overall lack of elite-level talent.

Five-Star Prospects
1. Christian Yelich, OF
Four-Star Prospects
2. Jose Fernandez, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
3. Marcell Ozuna, OF
4. J.T. Realmuto, C
5. Chad James, LHP
6. Matt Dominguez, 3B
7. Jesus Solorzano, OF
8. Jose Ceda, RHP
9. Jose Urena, RHP
10. Rob Rasmussen, LHP
11. Noah Perio, 2B

Nine More:
12. Austin Brice, RHP: Big, athletic righty with well above-average velocity and lots of projection.
13. Adam Conley, LHP: 2011 second-round pick has outstanding velocity for lefty, but secondary offerings need work.
14. Mason Hope, RHP: Fifth-rounder was overshadowed by big-name Oklahoma arms, but fastball and curve are both above-average.
15. Chris Hatcher, RHP: Marlins have dreams of converted catcher being the next Jason Motte. Good command of mid-90s heat.
16. Scott Cousins, OF: Left-handedness all but assures him of fourth outfielder work; has ability to turn into second-division starter.
17. Kyle Skipworth, C: Sixth overall pick in 2008 still has plenty of raw power, but approach is a mess and defense has not improved.
18. Kyle Jensen, OF: Put up big numbers in the Florida State League, but is an older corner outfielder who has to keep hitting.
19. Mark Canha, 1B: Another Jensen type, Canha has very real power, but as a 22-year-old first baseman in Low-A last year, he was supposed to mash.
20. Alejandro Ramos, RHP: Wipeout slider has missed plenty of best as A-level closer, but scouts wonder if he has enough of a fastball for it to work in the upper levels.

Robothal: Big Z Headed to Miami

What could possibly go wrong?

The Marlins, seeking to make another offseason splash, are close to acquiring Cubs right-hander Carlos Zambrano, according to major-league sources.
...
Zambrano is owed $18 million in the final year of his contract. The Cubs likely will pay most of that sum to purge Big Z, whom they placed on the restricted list in 2010 and disqualified list in ’11 due to issues with his temperament.

AP: Marlins’ Ramirez says he’ll accept switch to 3B

“I have spoken with Guillen,’’ Ramirez said. “What we want is to win with the Marlins. We will see what’s going to happen with the position switch and everything else. If it’s third base, OK. Wherever they put me to win, I will do so.’’ ...

The two Dominicans are friendly, although Reyes recently said he hadn’t heard from his fellow All-Star since signing.

“Between Reyes and me there is no problem,’’ Ramirez said. “I respect him very much. He is a great person.’’

Miami Marlins may not have room for Mermaids, Manatees in new ballpark

I suppose it would be a little garish.

Officially, the Marlins have not put the kibosh on the Mermaids or Manatees for the 2012 season, but it doesn’t appear either group will call the new ballpark home. According to the Miami New Times, the troupes will not be asked to return…

The Facebook page Save the Manatees supports the New Times report that the all-male, plus-sized dancers are done…

The often skimpily-clad Mermaids have been around since 2003 and have become a noteworthy component of the club’s promotional endeavors.

(h/t SB Nation)

MLB: Marlins’ new home to feature aquatic theme

Weeki Wachee your freakin’ head!

This is part of an MLB.com/Marlins.com exclusive series with team president David Samson, chronicling the progress and developments of the new retractable-roof stadium that is opening in 2012.

...Last Friday, two 450-gallon fish tanks were installed inside the wall behind the home-plate wall. They are positioned on the first- and third-base sides, and currently they are not filled with water.

The fish will be protected by shatter-proof glass, and the team has been ensured the fish will be safe.

“The reason this has never been done before, is not that it can’t be done,” Marlins president David Samson said. “It’s because no one thought to do it.”

...The aquariums will provide the fish with a home at the ballpark that is safe from crowd and stadium sound-system noises. And the glass is shatter-proof if it were to be struck by a baseball.

“As far as the fish are concerned, all I can tell you is we are working with people who work with fish for a living,” Samson said. “If we thought for one minute that the fish were in danger in any way, we wouldn’t have done it.”

...“In other ballparks, behind home plate, there was a lot of brick and limestone, or just green padding,” Samson said. “We just sat down and said, ‘What can we do with this part of the ballpark that’s never been done?’ And we just came up with the idea, ‘How about an aquarium, is that even possible?’”

Sickels: Miami Marlins Top 20 Prospects for 2012

1) Christian Yelich, OF, Grade B+: Pure hitter with decent power, surprising speed, ex-first baseman adapted well to outfield defense. Class of the system. Grade might go higher if he resolves problems against left-handed pitching.

2) Marcell Ozuna, OF, Grade B: Some risk here with plate discipline issues, but power/speed upside is excellent and he made progress last year with contact. Good throwing arm and range as well.

3) Jose Fernandez, RHP, Grade B: Highest-upside arm in the system, could be a rotation anchor although some think he’ll be a closer. 2011 first-round pick who hasn’t pitched much yet.

4) J.T. Realmuto, C, Grade B-: Borderline B. Good athleticism and power potential, needs some work with the strike zone and defensive polish. If he adds those, could be much higher next year and one of the best catching prospects in the game.

5) Matt Dominguez, 3B, Grade B-: Glove looks terrific, both on paper and in person. He has some power, but is not going to hit for average and doesn’t draw walks. Still young enough to improve, but at this point has more value for a real team than a fantasy one. Comp: Pedro Feliz.

...This system isn’t empty, but it is pretty thin. Yelich and Ozuna give some hope for the future outfield, with Yelich showing a good balance of skills in his full-season debut. Ozuna’s tools stand out and he made progress refining them last year, but he still carries significant risk. Realmuto will rank much higher in a year if he can polish up his defense. Everybody knows about Dominguez: great glove, but will he hit? It looks like role players beyond this group with few guys who project as regulars.

Thanks to Bello.

Boston Red Sox - Red Sox have more competition than ever - The Boston Globe

This week’s Boston Globe Sunday baseball column.

Miami Marlins still waiting for Hanley Ramirez to accept move to third

He told me once, he told me twice.
I don’t take no executive’s advice.
Move it on over…

Ramirez clearly is having trouble accepting the position switch — Beinfest admitted “it may take a little bit of time for him to get comfortable” with the idea.

Asked if he is confident Ramirez wants to be with the Marlins next season, Beinfest said, “I’ll keep it internal. The one thing I know is he wants to win. He’s a very proud guy. We want him here.”

The Marlins have said repeatedly that they do not plan to trade Ramirez, though several teams (reportedly including the Red Sox) have inquired.

But asked if Ramirez has made it clear to the organization that he would accept a move to third, Beinfest said, “The conversations we’ve had, we’re going to keep between us. But there’s been quite a bit of communication. He’s excited about playing for Ozzie Guillen. Ozzie is excited to have him. Everyone reacts to change differently.

“Even though we communicated with him and let him know what our intentions were in terms of Jose, he was the shortstop for six years, a very good one. We’ve asked him to move to third. Sometimes it just takes a little time for things to sink in. I think he recognizes we’re a better team with Jose.”

Hruby: Time To ‘Occupy The Marlins’

EVERYBODY INTO THE TIM POOL!

The numbers are staggering. Jose Reyes, $106 million. Mark Buehrle, $58 million. Heath Bell, $27 million. A reported $10 million for manager Ozzie Guillen, who according to rough sabermetric consensus is worth, at most, an extra three wins a season. Oh, and don’t forget a $200 million offer to Albert Pujols, the prize pony of this year’s free agent class.

To say that the notoriously parsimonious Miami Marlins—what if Scrooge McDuck owned a baseball team, and also fancied teal?—are suddenly throwing around greenbacks like drunken sailors isn’t just clichéd; it’s an insult to Joseph Hazelwood. And also a bad analogy. Because frankly, the Marlins aren’t spending like intoxicated swabbies with a few hours of shore leave. They’re spending like perfectly sober investment bankers.

The former uses their money.

The latter uses yours.

And that’s why it’s time to Occupy the Marlins.

...It’s time. Time to demand accountability and respect. Time for the public to be treated as a partner, as opposed to goodie-stuffed piñata. Time for hustling, greedy, parasitic sports owners to stop embodying the funny but telling statement once uttered by former baseball owner Bill Veeck: We play “The Star Spangled Banner” before every game—you want us to pay taxes, too?

Miami Marlins Risk Dropping the Ball on Transit

But wait… what if you built it and STILL no one came? I guess you’d better have some tradable players…

Exactly how those fans will get to the seats is a another matter. With the season just a few months away, the stadium’s transportation plan remains noticeably incomplete. Most fans will drive: roughly 5,000 garage spaces are intended for season ticketholders, and another 4,000 or so offsite spots will be available nearby. Still parking alone can’t fill the 37,000-seat stadium, and the team expects a considerable number of fans to arrive by public transportation

Marlins C John Buck helps rescue two women from overturned car

A hero, but he’s no Nomar.

‘I pulled out of the entrance (of his neighborhood) and I saw this car upside down and smoking. I kind of saw a hand pulling at the window,’’ he said.

“I looked at my wife and my wife’s like, ‘Go help! Just go!’’

Buck ran to the overturned car and went to work with two other Good Samaritans.

Buck and a bus driver who stopped to give assistance were able to help the car’s driver crawl out of a window of the upside-down car. Buck and another man pulled the passenger out.

Buck also called 911, but at the scene he said. “I didn’t do a whole lot of talking — everybody was speaking Spanish around me.’’

It didn’t take long for police and paramedics to arrive. Buck said the injuries to the two elderly women did not look life-threatening. He said he thinks the passenger might have suffered a broken leg; the driver didn’t appear to be physically hurt too much.

“It wasn’t that serious,’’ he said. “But the car upside down and the way it landed, the two older ladies were pretty lucky.’’

Buck didn’t stick around too long – he was on his way to pick up his son from school.

“I pulled them out, then the police came, I gave my report and was like, ‘Guess my job’s over.’ So I took off.’’

CSN Chicago: Buehrle says ‘I’ll be back’

The Cyberdine System is go!

Mark Buehrle might not be a part of the White Sox anymore, but if you ask Mark, the White Sox will forever be a part of him.

“I think I’ll always be a Chicago White Sox no matter what happens from here on out,” Buehrle said Sunday in an interview with Comcast SportsNet. “I kind of told some people, I said, ‘It’s just a 4-year break. I’ll be back before you know it.’ Maybe I’ll be playing, maybe just bugging people in the clubhouse, just coming through getting fat and drinking a beer, having fun and watching the game as a fan. It’s just a 4-year break, and I’ll be back before you know it.”

Mark will be 37 at the start of the 2016 season. As recent as last spring, he spoke about retiring. Does he really think he’ll still be playing after his contract runs out with the Marlins?

“I’m not going to sit here and say I’m going to retire after these 4 years, or that I’m looking for another 4-year contract, or a 1-year deal, because you know where that got me. If I’m feeling healthy in the end, I’ll come back and maybe play 1 more year and finish out in Chicago.”

Murray Chass: RAYS’ G.M. SHOWS LOYALTY; PUJOLS?

The Pujols’ negotiation was not based on infatuation but on negotiation. The Angels’ offer appealed to Pujols and his agent, Dan Lozano, because it was decidedly better than any other he received.

At the beginning of last week’s winter meetings, the newly-named and housed Miami Marlins made a big splash, offering a 10-year deal. But it reportedly included enough deferred money to reduce the present-day value of the package significantly, and the Marlins declined Pujols’ request for a no-trade clause in the contract.

According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals, whose talks for a contract extension Pujols cut off at the start of last spring training (rejecting a 9-year $198 million proposal), began post-season negotiations with a five-year $130 million offer.

With 10-year offers in the air and on the table, that proposal grew to $210 million for 10 years. As with the Marlins’ offer, though, this one included a significant amount of deferred money. One person told me the Cardinals proposed deferring $30 million for 20 years without interest.

Since the deal was not accepted, the people who usually compute present-day value of contracts that include deferred compensation didn’t do the math, but as a rule of thumb I have used in such instances in the past, I think it’s safe to figure that the $30 million deferred would produce a present-day value of roughly have [sic] that amount. That means the Cardinals’ $210 million offer was really under $200 million, say $195 million at most.

The Angels came in with their 10-year offer of $254 million – nothing deferred – and also, the Post-Dispatch said, loaded with bonuses for milestone incentives that could make the package worth more than $280 million. ...

In terms of money, though, the argument could be made that the Cardinals’ offer provided Pujols with enough money and how much more did he need. But if you reduce the Cardinals’ $210 million because of the deferred money and raise the Angels’ $254 million offer because of the potential bonuses, the difference becomes more than a paltry few million a year. ...

Fay Vincent, the former baseball commissioner, thinks the Cardinals and other teams with such high-priced superstars could and should do something else. Taking a cue from Hollywood, where he once ran Columbia Pictures, Vincent believes the time has come for teams to pay part of an expensive contract in team equity.

Instead of paying astronomical salaries, he says, give player a small ownership share of the team, and when he leaves the team, he can sell the share back to the team. The player would benefit from the plan as well as the club because his capital-gains tax would be less than his income tax.

Earlier this year I saw an isolated mention of the Cardinals having made such a proposal but having Pujols reject it, but I have not confirmed that development.

If it did happen, it would not surprise me if the player rejected the idea because his agent would strongly oppose it. Agents want their commissions now, not 5 or 10 years from now when the player might sell back his share of the team and receive his monetary share.

Come to think of it, owning a piece of the team might induce greater loyalty on both sides.

Interpreting Scott Boras’ Comments On Prince Fielder: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

The big concern for anyone signing Prince is that he will age like his father.

There has been some talk of Boras trying to get Fielder signed to a three or four year contract, so that Prince gets another bite at the free agency apple. That strategy, I would think, would work best for teams and Prince’s long-term earnings. Of course, who knows what silly offer could already be on the table? I am just glad the Red Sox already have Adrian Gonzalez.

USA Today: Nightengale: From zero to $254 million, how the Pujols deal got done

The Marlins thought Pujols might agree on Monday, knowing their offer blew away the Cardinals’ deal. Maybe it would have happened. But another team stepped in and ruined Miami’s plans. The team, which refuses to be publicly identified, offered Pujols a 10-year, $225 million deal. Pujols was intrigued. If he didn’t return to St. Louis, this team might be the perfect fit.

Then on Tuesday the Cardinals offered Pujols a contract potentially worth $210 million but for nine years, with a 10th-year option that would kick in if he met performance thresholds. It was an improvement over their previous proposals but still short of what else was on the table.
Still Pujols wanted to return to St. Louis.

It was at this time that Pujols eliminated the Marlins, and by late Tuesday it was a two-team race between the Cardinals and the mystery team. A few hours later, though, the phone rang in Lozano’s suite, and it was Angels general manager Jerry DiPoto wanting to talk.

So the mystery team served to knock the Marlins out of the picture, and kept things moving long enough for the Angels to get involved.  I wonder what team was attractive enough to Pujols that their $225M was more attractive than Miami’s $270-300.

Passan: Angels, Marlins might regret reckless spending

Reckless: Vital Sound 1: Featuring a battle of sorts between Los Angeles & Miami.

On the other hand, this may be the day that saved the Cardinals, the one on which they avoided the sort of albatross – or, as it shall be called, the Albertross – that can hamper a franchise for years. Sort of like A-Rod’s current deal, which he signed at age 32. Before Rodriguez signed this contract, he averaged 154 games per season and hit .306/.389/.578. His numbers have dipped significantly since, and he has played an average of 30 fewer games over the first four years. The deal is a disaster.

Pujols will arrive in Los Angeles beset with bumps and bruises – a bad back, foot problems, a chronically injured elbow. No matter his otherworldly healing ability and pain tolerance, Pujols is a health risk on any sort of multiyear deal, let alone 10. If he can continue to average 155 games a year, as he did in his first 11 seasons, the contract won’t look nearly as bad.

The only person to play that many games from his age-32 to -41 seasons is Pete Rose. And the only player with 1,500 games at that age over a decade is … Pete Rose. Knock it down to 1,400 games and the list grows to nine. Ever. And just 22 in history have played at least 1,300 games from their 32nd birthday to their 41st.

...Or he could turn into another player who wore an Angels uniform through his 33rd birthday, slogged through 150 games a year while fighting lower-body injuries and survives today as a desiccated version of himself: Vladimir Guerrero. Him or A-Rod or Ken Griffey Jr. – there are dozens more examples, each more harrowing than the previous, each speaking to human fragility and owners’ insistence on ignoring it through long-term deals.

Marlins’ Leo Nunez won’t face charges

Miami Marlins reliever Leo Nunez was arrested Thursday in his native Dominican Republic but then quickly released, with authorities saying he will not face charges stemming from an investigation into his use of false documents to sign a professional baseball contract.

The pitcher, whose real name is Juan Carlos Oviedo, was arrested outside the U.S. Consulate in Santo Domingo, where he had been trying to get a new visa under his real name so he could return to the United States. He was booked at police headquarters and then released. A police official, Col. Maximo Baez Aybar, said that Oviedo was arrested on a charge of using a false identity on official documents.

The district attorney’s office, however, later said in a statement that the police arrest warrant was out of date and that authorities did not intend to prosecute Oviedo because he had been cooperating with the investigation….

Authorities have arrested Hector Pena Diaz, who is accused of falsifying Nunez’s documents. Pena could face up to 10 years in prison if found guilty.

Marlins Were High Bidders For Pujols, [C.J.] Wilson

Mr. Lazear, for the good of the universe, please return Gray’s Sports Almanac to Dr. Brown.  Thank you.

With $191MM committed to Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell, Marlins fans can’t complain about their offseason so far.  Only one of the 5,020 entrants in MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest, Matthew Lazear, correctly guessed in November that the Marlins would sign all three.  However, it’s interesting to note that the Marlins also made the highest bids on top free agents Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, who ultimately went to the Angels today.

Pujols received ten years and $254MM from the Angels, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today says the Marlins offered ten years and $275MM…

Said Wilson: “But if it were just about money I’d be a Marlin, straight up, because they offered more money, they have a great situation.”

Deducing Albert Pujols’ mystery team | HardballTalk

I don’t buy the Red Sox as the mystery team. Two teams that make sense to me are the Orioles and the Mariners. I can see Dan Duquette working to get a huge Hall-of-Fame bat for his team (see Manny Ramirez). The Mariners are reportedly in on Fielder. If they are willing to put the money up for Fielder, I can’t see why they wouldn’t be negotiating with Pujols.

If Stark’s hunch is right — that this mystery team can only sign Pujols with a deal in place to move its first baseman — then Boston seems like the obvious choice. What if Gonzalez has decided Boston isn’t all it’s cracked up to be? There was some issue in the newspapers about his lack of leadership during the team’s September collapse, and perhaps he’s not enamored with the choice of Bobby Valentine to manage. Also, he probably wasn’t pleased that the Red Sox came up short on Heath Bell after he apparently interceded on his former teammate’s behalf. Maybe?

I’m not really buying it. I think the Red Sox would rather have Gonzalez at $154 million for the next seven years — his age 30-36 seasons — than Pujols at $220 million for 10 years — his age 32-41 seasons. But the idea of trading Gonzalez, who has only partial no-trade protection, and signing Pujols isn’t all that far-fetched. The salaries would be essentially the same, and if the Red Sox could get legitimate talent back (how crazy would a Gonzalez-for-Hanley Ramirez deal be?) then maybe it’d be worth it.

Buehrle to sign with Marlins

Mark Buehrle and Ozzie Guillen reunited: The free-agent pitcher reportedly will sign a four-year, $58 million deal with the Miami Marlins, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

Albert Pujols mulls 3 offers: Cardinals, Marlins, and 1 more

DALLAS—Marquee free-agent first baseman Albert Pujols, fueling the most lucrative bidding war in baseball history, obtained three 10-year contract proposals Tuesday that would pay him in excess of $200 million, an official close to the negotiations told USA TODAY.

The official could not comment on the negotiations because they are ongoing.

Pujols, who could announce his decision as early as Wednesday, has offers from the St. Louis Cardinals, Florida Marlins and a third team that has publicly declined to be identified. Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak confirmed his club increased its offer to Pujols late Tuesday, his first offer in nine months.

WE HAVE MYSTERY TEAM!