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Saturday, February 22, 2020

MLB 2020 Division Winners: Favorites and Best Bets

With spring training now in full swing, betting boards at the Westgate SuperBook are loaded with a massive variety of futures betting options. That includes prices to win each of the six regular season division championships.

Will the Yankees steamroll to back-to-back AL East titles? Will the Dodgers rule the NL West for an eighth straight season? Are any dark horses poised to make a breakthrough? Here is an early look at each team’s title chances.

New York Yankees Are Thick AL East Chalk

New York Yankees: -1200
Tampa Bay Rays: +800
Boston Red Sox: +1600
Toronto Blue Jays: +10000
Baltimore Orioles: +100000

Something for the gamblers among us- interesting to think of how mainstream this sort of thing became so quickly…..

 

QLE Posted: February 22, 2020 at 12:44 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: gambling, odds

Friday, February 21, 2020

A Quick Look at Our Playoff Odds

With the release of full ZiPS projections, our playoff odds are up and running. For the most part that means putting a number to things that we already know. The Dodgers are 97.7% likely to make the playoffs, which sounds about right. The NL Central is a four-way tossup with the Cubs out in the lead. The NL East has three teams each with around a one-in-three chance at it. That all tracks with intuition.

Indeed, for the most part, the standings are self-explanatory. That doesn’t mean that everything is obvious and intuitive, however. Let’s take a quick look at a few of the cases where a deeper dive is necessary.

It’s tempting to think of a team’s expected win total as just a sum of their WAR. After all, the W is right there in the acronym! As Dan notes every year, however, adding up WAR totals on a depth chart isn’t a great way to go about things. Rather than just do that blindly, however, we can look at teams whose projected wins diverge the most from their WAR.

To do that, we’ll need each team’s projected WAR totals. Thankfully, there’s a handy page that shows all that data. The Dodgers have the most projected WAR and the Orioles have the least.

Well, no better time of year to start making such predictions than the present…...

 

QLE Posted: February 21, 2020 at 01:18 AM | 18 comment(s)
  Beats: odds

Friday, November 01, 2019

2020 World Series odds: Astros and Dodgers favored to win pennants, Nationals sit third in National

The Washington Nationals took home the 2019 World Series title in seven games on Wednesday, and while the 2020 MLB season is still five months away, odds for next fall’s World Series and pennant championships are out. The latest 2020 World Series odds have this year’s runner-up Houston Astros as 4-to-1 favorites to win it all, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees behind Houston with 5-to-1 odds. Eight (Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Red Sox, Nationals, Indians and Cardinals) of baseball’s 30 teams have World Series odds of 18-to-1 or lower.

For the AL pennant, the Astros are a +225 favorite with the Yankees at +250. Over in the NL, the pennant favorites are the Dodgers with +250 odds and the Braves next on the board at +450.

The Astros were one game away from winning their second World Series title in three years, before the Nationals won two straight games in Houston to clinch the 2019 title. The club is expected to return the majority of their potent lineup in 2020, and they’ll once again be the team to beat in the 2020 season. Gerrit Cole will be a free agent at the conclusion of the 2019 season, and even if he departs, Houston will be bringing back Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke to lead the pitching staff.

Never too early, is it?

 

QLE Posted: November 01, 2019 at 12:15 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: odds, world series

Monday, October 21, 2019

Astros enter World Series against Nationals as heaviest favorites since 2007

Mere hours after clinching their second pennant in three years, the Houston Astros were conferred the best World Series odds in over a decade.

Westgate deemed the Astros as -220 favorites with Caesars Sportsbook opening at -235. Even at the lower figure, that’s largest odds for a favorite since the 2007 Boston Red Sox were -240 favorites over the Colorado Rockies.

For the uninitiated, lines bigger than -200 are rarely seen at this level because people don’t often think things will be so lopsided. The implied odds from a -220 line is that the Astros will win 68.8 percent of the time — 70.1 percent if you use the Caesars line. And given how talented the Washington Nationals are, that seems very high.

Any thoughts from the gamblers among us?

QLE Posted: October 21, 2019 at 12:03 AM | 66 comment(s)
  Beats: astros, odds, world series

 

 

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