Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback



All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher


Out Fo The Race Newsbeat

Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Skin in the (Ball) Game: Do Teams Underperform When They’re Out of the Race?

The end takeaway of all this? I think you can say with some certainty that teams that are out of the playoffs play worse than their projected talent level down the stretch. Maybe that’s because they’re coasting, maybe that’s because their managers use lower-leverage relievers and generally protect their best arms, maybe it’s because they’re more likely to go out the night before and eat some fried food. I couldn’t hope to figure out why from this study. But the effect does feel real to me, even if it’s not a complete no-doubt lock.

There are a few other interesting effects – for example, this down-and-out penalty seems to apply more in road games than in home games, though the sample size is necessarily smaller there. Additionally, when down-and-out teams play each other in September, the home team massively outperforms expectations. Perhaps the crowd can keep teams in games that they’d otherwise give up on? Perhaps it’s less fun to stay out the night before when you have a chance to sleep in your own bed? Sounds like a fun thing to investigate sometime.

Overall, I’ll say this: I think that the skin-in-the-game effect exists in baseball. Teams that are out of the playoff hunt mostly play worse than you’d expect, even after you account for their diminished rosters. The exact composition of the effect is uncertain – and hey, I have a pile of data to play with, so if you have any other ideas for how to split this up, please let me know – but it seems very real.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 14, 2022 at 01:26 PM | 6 comment(s)
  Beats: out fo the race



BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF


Thanks to
greenback needs a ride, not ammo
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogTop 100 prospects updated 2022 midseason rankings
(11 - 9:26pm, Aug 18)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogJoey Votto to have season-ending shoulder surgery on torn rotator cuff
(40 - 9:07pm, Aug 18)
Last: I don't want to talk about Rocco

NewsblogOMNICHATTER for the week of August 15-22, 2022
(113 - 9:03pm, Aug 18)
Last: frannyzoo

NewsblogFernando Tatis Jr. suspended, tests positive for banned substance
(30 - 9:01pm, Aug 18)
Last: salvomania

NewsblogYankees four-time All-Star Dellin Betances retires
(5 - 7:31pm, Aug 18)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogHe got a job via LinkedIn -- Major League player
(1 - 7:01pm, Aug 18)
Last: Zach

NewsblogThe Six-Man Rotation May Be Baseball’s Next Evolutionary Step
(2 - 5:59pm, Aug 18)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogSources: New York Mets to call up touted 3B prospect Brett Baty
(11 - 3:25pm, Aug 18)
Last: Karl from NY

NewsblogJosh Donaldson delivers for New York Yankees with grand slam walk-off in 10th inning
(2 - 2:39pm, Aug 18)
Last: cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE

NewsblogAthletics release Andrus in final year of $120M deal
(15 - 2:38pm, Aug 18)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogVideo shows Tony La Russa may have listened to fan in stands before putting pinch runner in
(29 - 12:44pm, Aug 18)
Last: sunday silence (again)

NewsblogSteep drop, but still season-high, for “Field of Dreams” sequel
(21 - 11:56am, Aug 18)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

Sox TherapyOver and Under
(20 - 11:44am, Aug 18)
Last: John DiFool2

NewsblogFormer SF Giants player turned internet troll Aubrey Huff running for local office, will probably lose badly
(9 - 10:49am, Aug 18)
Last: cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE

NewsblogJon Daniels dismissed by Rangers; Chris Young to run baseball ops
(7 - 10:20am, Aug 18)
Last: BDC

Page rendered in 1.4241 seconds
43 querie(s) executed