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Parity Newsbeat

Monday, May 10, 2021

No MLB Team Is Great, And Fewer Are Awful. Is This The Parity We Wanted?

One quick way to measure how much parity baseball has seen this year — relative to the same stage of previous seasons — is to look at the standard deviation of winning percentages. Through 34 games for each team,1 that number is 0.0747, meaning one standard deviation below .500 lands you on a pace of 69 wins per 162, while a standard deviation above .500 puts you on pace for 93 wins. That may sound relatively ordinary, but early season records usually vary a lot more than that. Through 34 games in 2018, for instance, one standard deviation below .500 would have put a team on pace to win just 60 games, while a standard deviation above .500 meant winning at a 102-victory pace.

Granted, the 2018 season was one of the most imbalanced in MLB since 1969, the start of the divisional era. But 2021 is shaping up to be one of the most balanced. Only in 1974, when just one team (the 102-win Los Angeles Dodgers) won more than 91 games and just three won fewer than 70, did a season start with as much competitive balance as 2021, according to the standard deviation of winning percentages through 34 games:...

A big reason is that the teams that looked most dominant on paper going into the season have gotten out to slow starts. Remarkably, each of the top nine teams in our preseason Elo ratings has seen its rating dip since then; only the 10th-ranked Toronto Blue Jays have exceeded expectations in the early going:

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 10, 2021 at 06:24 PM | 24 comment(s)
  Beats: parity

 

 

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